Social scientists note a paradox: Most people strongly condemn overt racism, yet

acts of blatant racism still occur. To examine this, Kawakami and associates (2009)
conducted an experiment. They thought perhaps people inaccurately estimate what
they would feel and do if they were to witness racism. To examine this, they asked
non-Black students how they would feel and what they thought they would do if a
racist act occurred. Most predicted that they would be very upset. However, when
the researchers staged a racist act in front of them, most of the students showed
little distress. Most said they would avoid a person who made a crude racist
comment, but again what people said did not match their actual behavior. Study
results suggest that one reason racism continues is that many people who believe
they would feel upset or take action actually respond with indifference when an act
of racism actually occurs. Apparently, we are not good at predicting how we will act
in real situations when they happen.

Entire subfields of research are devoted to uncovering the ways we misjudge, overor underestimate, and make mistakes. Here is an example: Women tend to stick
with skin creams that do not work. Moreover, the less effective a beauty product or
treatment, the more likely they will keep using it. These are the findings of a study
of 300 women, ages 27 to 65, who were trying to achieve a more youthful
appearance by using creams, vitamins, and other beauty treatments. The findings
were not what we might expect: The women were most loyal to products and
treatments when they didnt work! Among women who felt that the treatments
were not working, 27 percent stopped using them. Among women who felt the
treatments were successful, 55 percent stopped using them. The researchers think
the women keep doing something that did not work because when people dont feel
good about themselves, fear is a more powerful motivator than success. Fear about
looking older spurred the women to keep trying even when products dont work.1

Knowledge from personal experience, common sense facts, and reasoning might
be correct, but they can lead us astray. For example, common sense says that
distributing free condoms in high schools will encourage teens to engage in sexual
activity or that imposing harsh punishment, such as the death penalty, decreases
violent crimesyet numerous studies suggest that both of these beliefs are false.
Most people think an eyewitness account of a crime is ideal, but studies show they
are highly inaccurate. Many of us worry about tragic accidents and horrific events,
such as a plane crash or a school shooting. However, we tend to worry about the
wrong things because our estimates of something happening are far from actual
probabilities based on careful studies. Likewise, we can be misled by surface
appearances. Many people purchased a large, powerful-looking SUV for its safety at
a time when crash tests and accident records showed SUVs to be less safe than
many meeker looking cars.