TreePlan 203 Example Windows

0.
5
Awarded contract
250000
Prepare proposal
-50000
20000
0.5
Not awarded contract
20000
Do not prepare proposal

0
Use mechanical method

-120000
80000
0.5
Electronic success
Try electronic method
-50000
0.5
Electronic failure
rded contract
2
90000
90000
-120000
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
-80000
0
84000
0.3
Magnetic failure
-120000
awarded contract
-50000
80000
tronic success
150000
150000
tronic failure
30000
30000
netic success
120000
120000
netic failure
0
0
-50000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
0
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
S2
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Col
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$20,000
0.5
$20,000
$0

$0
$0

-$120,000
$80,000
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
rded contract
2
$90,000
$90,000
-$120,000
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$84,000
-$120,000
awarded contract
-$50,000
$80,000
tronic success
$150,000
$150,000
tronic failure
$30,000
$30,000
netic success
$120,000
$120,000
netic failure
$0
$0
-$50,000
$0
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
0
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
S2
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Col
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
0.5
$0

$0

-$120,000
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
rded contract
awarded contract
$0
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$0
$80,000
tronic success
$150,000
tronic failure

1
$30,000
-$120,000
netic success
$120,000
netic failure

1
$0
-$120,000
-$50,000
$0
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Value
Prob
0
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
3
3
6
6
7
7
9
11
Kind
D
E
T
D
T
T
E
E
T
D
T
D
T
T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
S2
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
12
0
13
0
0
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S4
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Col
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
12
22
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
21
21
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$1,337
0.00887
0.5
$1,337
0.00887
$0

$0
$0
0.00000

-$120,000
$80,000
0.41335
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
rded contract
1
$80,000
0.41335
$78,307
0.40669
-$120,000
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$73,035
0.38547
-$120,000
awarded contract
-$50,000
-0.39561
Label in cell on left is the

defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
RT
tronic success
$150,000
$150,000
0.63212
tronic failure
$30,000
$30,000
0.18127
netic success
$120,000
$120,000
0.55067
netic failure
$0
$0
0.00000
-$50,000
$0
$150,000
ell on right.
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
0
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
S2
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Col
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
0.5
Awarded contract
$250,000
Prepare proposal
-$50,000
$1,337
0.39357
0.5
$1,337
0.39357
$0

$0
$0
0.38494

-$120,000
$80,000
0.78714
0.5
Electronic success
$0
-$50,000
0.5
Electronic failure
rded contract
1
$80,000
0.78714
$78,307
0.78066
-$120,000
0.7
Magnetic success
Try magnetic method
$0
-$80,000
0.3
Magnetic failure
$73,035
0.76000
-$120,000
awarded contract
-$50,000
0.00000
Label in cell on left is the

defined name of cell on right.
$80,000
tronic success
RT
$150,000
Low
High
-$50,000
$150,000
$150,000
$150,000
1.00000
A
B
tronic failure
$30,000
$30,000
0.56131
netic success
$120,000
$120,000
0.92075
netic failure
$0
$0
0.38494
-$50,000
$0
1.357952354
0.97301538
ell on right.
U(Low) = 0.0
U(High) = 1.0
Value
-$50,000
-$45,000
-$40,000
-$35,000
-$30,000
-$25,000
-$20,000
-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
$105,000
$110,000
$115,000
$120,000
$125,000
$130,000
$135,000
$140,000
$145,000
Risk Utility
0.00000
0.04452
0.08758
0.12923
0.16951
0.20847
0.24616
0.28260
0.31786
0.35196
0.38494
0.41684
0.44769
0.47753
0.50640
0.53431
0.56131
0.58743
0.61269
0.63712
0.66076
0.68361
0.70572
0.72710
0.74779
0.76779
0.78714
0.80585
0.82395
0.84146
0.85839
0.87477
0.89061
0.90593
0.92075
0.93508
0.94894
0.96235
0.97532
0.98787
$150,000
1.00000
DriveTek Risk Utility Function

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
Utility or Expected Utility, U(x)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
Value or Certain Equivalent, x
$100,
Risk Utility Function
$50,000
r Certain Equivalent, x
$100,000
$150,000
ID
Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Value
0
Prob
Pred
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kind
0D
0E
0T
1D
1T
3T
3E
3E
6T
6T
7T
7T
NS
S1
2
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
5
0
0
8
10
0
0
0
0
S2
S3
2
4
0
6
0
0
9
11
0
0
0
0
S4
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
18
32
10
27
2
9
19
7
12
17
22
Col
Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13
17
17
17
17
TreePlan for Excel
2.03
Decision Tree Software

Add-In for Microsoft Windows Excel 2007 - 2016
and for Macintosh Excel 2011 - 2016
TreePlan helps you build and modify a decision tree diagram
in an Excel worksheet. TreePlan automatically puts formulas
on your worksheet for evaluating these trees.
To build a new decision tree, open a new worksheet and
select a single cell that will be the top left corner of the tree
diagram.
Then run TreePlan:
Windows Excel 2007 & 2010 & 2013 & 2016
Add-Ins > TreePlan Decision Tree, or
Control+Shift+T
Macintosh Excel 2011
Tools > TreePlan Decision Tree, or
Option+Command+T
Macintosh Excel 2016
Option+Command+T
When the TreePlan...New dialog box appears, choose
New Tree. TreePlan builds a tree diagram with an initial
decision node and two branches. The tree diagram begins
with the top left corner of the diagram near the active
cell at the time New... is chosen.
TreePlan assigns the name TreeDiagram to the range of the
tree diagram and sets Excel's Print_Area equal to
TreeDiagram.
To change the structure of the tree diagram, select a node,
run TreePlan, and choose commands from a TreePlan
dialog box.
CAUTION: Do not use Excel commands to modify the
structure of the the tree diagram. Only use TreePlan.
On the left side of each branch of the tree diagram, there is
a name field above the branch line and a partial-cash-flow
value field below the line.
On the left side of event branches, there is also a probability

field above the name field.
A decision node cell contains a formula yielding a number to
indicate the optimal branch.
On the right side of each branch of the tree diagram, there is
a rollback Certain Equivalent (CE) field below the line near
each node. TreePlan automatically puts the rollback CE
formula into this cell: maximum of successor CEs at a
decision node, and probability-weighted average value of
successor CEs at an event node.
To the right of the terminal nodes, there is an endpoint
value field that sums all of the partial cashflows in the tree.
Internally, TreePlan uses the TreeData range, near cell
GV1000, to construct the TreeDiagram.
CAUTION: Do not insert or delete rows or columns in the
TreeDiagram or TreeData ranges. Modify the tree diagram
only by using TreePlan's menu options.
TREEPLAN...DECISION and
TREEPLAN...EVENT dialog boxes
Add branch
Adds a single branch after the selected node .
(No more than 5 branches are allowed.)
Copy subtree
Copies the selected node and all its successors to the
TreePlan internal clipboard.
Insert decision
Inserts a decision node and single branch before the
selected node.
Insert event
Inserts an event node and single branch before the
selected node.
Change to decision
Changes the selected event node to a decision node and
erases the probability fields from the event branches.
Change to event
Changes the selected decision node to an event node.

Shorten tree
Removes the selected node and its single successor
branch.
Change to terminal
Changes the selected node to a terminal node. All
successor branches are erased.
Remove branch
Erases the selected node, the previous branch, and any
successor branches and nodes.
TREEPLAN...TERMINAL dialog box

Change to decision node
Changes the selected terminal node to a decision node
with one to five successor branches.
Change to event node
Changes the selected terminal node to an event node
with one to five successor branches.
Paste subtree
Pastes the subtree onto the selected terminal node from
the TreePlan internal clipboard.
Remove previous branch
Erases the selected terminal node and the previous
branch.
TREEPLAN...SELECT dialog box

Cells
To select a set of nonadjacent cells for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate checkboxes.
Shapes
To select a set of shapes for subsequent formatting,
select the appropriate checkboxes.
Columns
To select a set of nonadjacent columns for subsequent
formatting, select the appropriate checkboxes.
TREEPLAN...OPTIONS dialog box

Certain Equivalents
The default is to rollback the tree using probabilityweighted average values. If you chose to use
exponential utilities, TreePlan will compute utilities and
certain equivalents at each node. For the Maximize
option, the rollback formulas are U=A-B*EXP(-X/RT)
and X=-LN((A-U)/B)*RT, and for the Minimize option,
U=A-B*EXP(X/RT) and X=LN((A-U)/B)*RT.
NOTE: TreePlan uses the name RT to represent the
risk tolerance parameter of the exponential utility
function; the names A and B determine scaling.
If the names A, B, and RT don't exist, they are initially
defined as A=1, B=1, and RT=999999999999. The
name UseExpUtility is a flag indicating whether to use
exponential utilities or probability-weighted average
values.
Decision Node Choices
The default is to Maximize profits. If you choose to
Minimize costs instead, the cash flows are interpreted
as costs, and decisions are made by choosing the
minimum CE rather than the maximum.
TreePlan uses the name MinimizeCosts as a flag
indicating whether to maximize profits or minimize
costs.
TreePlan for Excel
2.03
Title License Agreement for TreePlan, SensIt, and SimVoi
Introduction Carefully read the following license agreement. This is a contract. By downloading,
accepting delivery of, installing, or using any part of the Software, licensee agrees to be bound by all
terms and conditions of this license.
Definitions The software product, Software, means the Pro, Student, or Trial version of TreePlan,
SensIt, or SimVoi, including the Excel add-in files, associated example files, and electronic
documentation files, and also any updates or modifications of the foregoing provided by TreePlan
Software.
The licensor, TreePlan Software or We or Us or Our, means Mike Middleton or Michael R.
Middleton, doing business as TreePlan Software, a sole proprietorship, located at 2105 Buchanan
Street, #1, San Francisco, CA 94115 USA.
The licensee, You or Your, means the individual person or a single organizational entity that is
being licensed to use the Software.
This license agreement, Agreement, means this legal and binding agreement between you and
TreePlan Software for the Software you are about to download, install, or use.
"Use" of the Software means the use of any of the Software functions to define, solve, analyze, or
obtain results for a user-defined model.
Ownership The Software is owned and copyrighted by TreePlan Software. Your license confers no
title or ownership in the Software and should not be construed as a sale of any right in the Software.
We remain the sole owner of all right, title, and interest in the Software and related explanatory
written and electronic materials. You acknowledge that no title to the intellectual property in the
Software is transferred to you by the license. You further acknowledge that title and full ownership
rights to the Software will remain the exclusive property of TreePlan Software and that you will not
acquire any rights to the Software except as expressly set forth in this license.
Copyright The Software is protected by United States copyright laws and international treaty
provisions.
Pro License Upon purchase or receipt of a Pro license, you may install and use the Pro version of
the Software for single individual use on multiple computers, or you may install the Pro version on a
single computer for shared use, but not both.
Student License The Student license is only for instructional use by students and instructors, and
the Software may not be used for commercial purposes. Upon purchase or receipt of a Student
license, you may install and use the Student version of the Software for single individual use on
multiple computers, or you may install the Student version on a single computer for shared use, but
not both.
Trial License TreePlan Software grants you the right to install and use the Trial version of the
Software free of charge for single individual use on one computer for no longer than thirty days, after
which you must delete all of the Software files from your computer. During the Trial period the
Software is licensed only for evaluation and may not be used for commercial, instructional, or other
production purposes.
Volume Licenses For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for a group of individual users,
the primary purchaser may duplicate and distribute the corresponding version of the Software to
those licensed users by disk, secure network, secure web site, or email attachment. For any method
of distribution, the Software must be accessible only to people who have a license.
For a volume purchase of Pro or Student licenses for shared use on a group of computers, each
computer must have its own license, regardless of whether the Software is used at different times or
concurrently. The Software may be installed on each licensed computer or on a network, provided
there is a license for each computer that will access the Software through the network.
For a volume purchase, TreePlan Software provides support only to the primary purchaser or to
another person designated by the purchaser.
Backup Copy You may copy the Software for backup and archival purposes, provided that the
original and each copy is kept in your possession and is not available to others.
Accessibility You may not place the Software onto a server so that it is accessible via a public
network such as the Internet.
License Transfer You may not sublicense, sell, lease, rent, assign or otherwise transfer the license
rights granted herein without the prior written consent of TreePlan Software.
Modifications You may not modify or adapt the Software or merge it into another program.
Reverse Engineering You may not reverse engineer, disassemble, decompile, or make any
attempt to discover the source code of the Software.
Sublicensing You may not sublicense, rent, lease, or lend any portion of the Software and related
explanatory written and electronic materials.
Limited Warranty We warrant that for a period of 90 days after delivery of this copy of the
Software to you the Software will perform in substantial accordance with the related explanatory
materials.
To the extent permitted by applicable law, the foregoing limited warranty is in lieu of all other
warranties or conditions, express or implied, and we disclaim any and all implied warranties or
conditions, including any implied warranty of title, non-infringement, merchantability or fitness for a
particular purpose, regardless of whether we know or had reason to know of your particular needs.
No employee, agent, dealer, reseller, or distributor of ours is authorized to modify this limited
warranty nor to make any additional warranties.
Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for incidental or consequential
damages, so the above limitation may not apply to you.
Limited Remedy Our entire liability and your exclusive remedy for breach of the foregoing
warranty shall be, at our option, to either return the price you paid or replace the Software file that
does not meet the foregoing warranty.
In no event will we be liable to you for any damages, including any lost profits, lost savings, or other
incidental or consequential damages arising from the use or the inability to use the Software (even if
we or an authorized dealer, reseller, or distributor has been advised of the possibility of these
damages), or for any claim by any other party.
Some states do not allow the limitation or exclusion of liability for incidental or consequential
damages, so the above limitation may not apply to you.
Termination This license agreement takes effect upon your use of the Software and remains
effective until terminated. You may terminate it at any time by destroying all copies of the Software
and related explanatory materials in your possession. It will also automatically terminate if you fail to
comply with any term or condition of this license agreement. You agree on termination of this license
to destroy all copies of the Software and related explanatory materials in your possession.
Confidentiality The Software contains trade secrets and proprietary know-how that belong to us
and it is being made available to you in strict confidence. Any use or disclosure of the Software, or of
its algorithms, protocols or interfaces, other than in strict accordance with this license agreement,
may be actionable as a violation of our trade secret rights.
General Provisions This written license agreement is the exclusive agreement between you and
us concerning the Software and related explanatory materials and supersedes any prior purchase
order, communication, advertising or representation concerning the Software.
This license agreement may be modified only by a writing signed by you and us.
In the event of litigation between you and us concerning the Software or related explanatory
materials, the prevailing party in the litigation will be entitled to recover attorney fees and expenses
from the other party.
This license agreement is governed by the laws of the State of California.
You agree that the Software will not be shipped, transferred or exported into any country or used in
any manner prohibited by the United States Export Administration Act or any other export laws,
restrictions or regulations.

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0.

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Use mechanical method

Use mechanical method

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Label in cell on left is the

Do not prepare proposal

Use mechanical method

Try electronic method

Label in cell on left is the

DriveTek Risk Utility Function

Risk Utility Function

TreePlan for Excel

Decision Tree Software

On the left side of event branches, there is also a probability

Changes the selected decision node to an event node.

TREEPLAN...TERMINAL dialog box

TREEPLAN...SELECT dialog box

TREEPLAN...OPTIONS dialog box

Title License Agreement for TreePlan, SensIt, and SimVoi

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