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Lecture: Probability basics
Problem 1. Consider a cubic die throw example. Define the sample space . Provide

description to the event E defined as E ={2, 3, 5}. Define E, a complement of E, using

enumerative and descriptive way.

The union
of two events A and B is the event that occurs when A or B or both
of them occur.
The intersection
of two events A and B is the event that occurs when both
events A and B occur.
The events A and B are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one of them excludes
the occurrence of the other, i.e.
=.
The difference between events (sets), denoted by A-B, is the set of elements x such that
:
, and
.

Problem 2. See slide 20, and prove

using operations on sets.

, using Venn diagrams and

Problem 3. The probability theory is based on the probability space and

Kolmogorov probability axioms. Define the probability space (hint: it is a
mathematical triplet) and probability axioms (hint: 3 axioms).
Problem 4. Prove that
=
as union of disjoint spaces.

. hint: represent

Problem 5. A defective die is tossed whose sides have been mistakenly

manufactured with the number of dots being 1,1,2,2,3,4. (a) Identify (, , ) (b)
What is the probability that the outcome is less than 3? (c) What is the
probability that the outcome is greater or equal to 3.

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Lecture: Combinatorics
Problem 6. A committee of 6 people is to be chosen from a group consisting of 7
men and 8 women. If the committee must consist of at least 3 women and at least
2 men, how many different committees are possible?
Problem 7. Given a table (database) with 100 rows (slots). The row in the table is
selected randomly every time new data are written to the table. What is the
probability that on 10th time, a collision will occur? Collision is an instance when
data is written to the place that already contains previously written data. (Hint:
this is a birthday type problem, first find a probability of a complement event)
Problem 8 *. Given a table (or database) with N rows (or records). The row in the
table is selected randomly every time new data are written to the table. How
many times the data should be written to the table to have 50% chance of a
collision?
(hint: use ex 1 + x, and + + ++n = n(n+1)/2
Problem 9. Determine the probability p[k] that a randomly generated vector (x1, . . . ,
xn) has the following property

Assume, that each xi is either 0 or 1 and each vector is equally probable to appear.
Problem 10. (a) A defective batch of 1000 chips contains 940 good chips and 60 bad
chips. If we choose a sample of 100 chips, find the probability that the bad batch will
be accepted as good (will be 95 or more good chips).
(b) A good batch of 1000 chips contains 960 good chips and 40 bad chips. If we
choose a sample of 100 chips, find the probability that the good batch will be rejected
(will be less than 95 good chips). Assume sampling with replacement.

Problem 11. Compare the hypegeometric law to the binomial law if N = 1000, M =
100, p = 0.94 by calculating the probability P[k], k = 95, 96,,100.
Hint: To avoid computational difficulties for calculating N! for large N, use the
following strategy to find x = 1000! / 900! as an example:
= ln

= ln

! ln 9

! = ln ln
=

and then = exp . Alternatively, for this example you can cancel out the common
factors in the quotient of x and write it as =
, which is easier to compute.

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Solution