8/25/2016

PakistansRoleintheSyriaConflict|TheDiplomat

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Pakistan's Role in the Syria Conict

How Pakistan wound up on the same side as Iran in the Syria conict.
By Samuel Ramani
August 24, 2016

OnMay2,2016,theIraniangovernmentpassedalawallowingfamiliesofdeceasedforeignIranianRevolutionaryGuard
fighterstogainIraniancitizenship.IransnewcitizenshiplegislationapplieschieflytorelativesofAfghansanddissident
IraqiswhofoughtforIranagainstSaddamHusseinsregimeduringthe19801988IranIraqWar.However,thelawhasalso
beenextendedtoincludeforeignvolunteersassistingIransantiIslamicState(ISIS)campaigninSyria.
PakistanisarelikelytobeamajorbeneficiaryofIransnewcitizenshiplegislation.SincethestartoftheSyriancivilwarin
2011,theIranianRevolutionaryGuardhasrecruitedPakistanivolunteerstoparticipateinitsproAssadmilitarycampaign
inSyria.Meanwhile,thePakistanigovernmenthasmaintainedastrongalliancewithembattledSyrianPresidentBasharal
Assad.ThestrengthoftheIslamabadDamascusallianceiscounterintuitivePakistanisaSunnimajoritycountryanda
closeallyofSaudiArabia,whichhasrepeatedlycalledforAssadsoverthrow.
PakistansongoingloyaltytoBaathistSyriacanbeexplainedbyhistoricallegacies,andIslamabadsdisdainforWestern
interferenceinSyriasinternalpolitics.However,PakistanssupportforAssadcomeswithconsiderablerisks.ThePakistani
governmentsalliancewithaShiiteSyrianregimecouldinflamesectariantensionswithinPakistanandcauseSaudiArabia
todistanceitselffromIslamabadinfavorofclosertieswithIndia.
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TheFoundationsofthePakistanSyriaGeopoliticalAlliance
EventhoughairforcecooperationbetweenPakistanandSyriaalreadybeganduringthe1960s,theIslamabadDamascus
partnershiphasbeendefinedbythestrongalliancebetweentheAssadandBhuttofamilies.Duringthe1970s,Syrian
PresidentHafezalAssadforgedacloserelationshipwithhisPakistanicounterpart,ZulfikarAliBhutto.Thisfriendship
causedAssadtobecomethefirstSyrianheadofstatetovisitPakistanduringthe1974OrganizationofIslamicCooperation
summitinLahore.
ThestrengthoftheBhuttoAssadalliancewasrevealedbyAssadsfiercecondemnationsofBhuttosexecutionin1979.
Immediatelyafterthe1978militarycoupthatpropelledGeneralMohammedZiaulHaqtopower,HafezalAssadurgedZia
tospareBhuttoslife.ZiasdefianceofAssadsadvicerupturedPakistansburgeoningpartnershipwithSyria.AfterZulfikar
AliBhuttosexecution,someleftwingPakistaniswhosupportedZiasoverthrowtookrefugeinDamascus.Syriaalso
grantedasylumtothreeBhuttofamilymembersin1979.
EventhoughSyriaandPakistannormalizedrelationsin1987,HafezalAssadstronglysupportedBenazirBhuttoduringthe
1988Pakistanipresidentialelectioncampaign.AssadwasconvincedthatBhuttosvictorywouldstrengthenPakistans
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relationshipwithSyriasprincipalinternationalally,theSovietUnion.AssadalsobelievedthatBhuttoadvocatedleftwing
principlesthatresembledthoseoftheSyrianBaathParty.ThealliancebetweentheAssadandBhuttofamilieswasrevivedin
2008,asBasharalAssadandBenazirBhuttoshusband,AsifAliZardari,expandedPakistanSyriacooperationinthe
economicandsecurityspheres.
EventhoughNawazSharifreplacedZardariasprimeministerofPakistanin2013,IslamabadscommitmenttoAssads
survivalhasnotwavered.PakistansproAssadstancehascorrespondedcloselywithIslamabadsantiWesternforeign
policytilt.PakistanhascondemnedtheUnitedStateswillingnesstoviolateSyriassovereignty.Sharifsgovernmentalso
echoedRussiascallsforpeacetalksthatincludeallmajorpoliticalfactionsinSyria.
AftertheSyrianmilitarysallegeduseofchemicalweaponsin2013,PakistanstronglyopposedapotentialU.S.ledmilitary
interventioninSyriatoremoveAssad.ThePakistanigovernmentarguedthatAssadsfallwouldmakeSyriaaterminalfailed
state.PakistansemphasisonmaintainingthestatusquoinSyriahasstrengtheneditsrelationshipswithRussiaandChina,
theleadersoftheproAssadblocintheUnitedNations(UN).
PakistanhasalsocriticizedinternationalsanctionsagainsttheSyriangovernment.TheSyrianeconomyscollapsehas
disruptedtradelinksbetweenDamascusandIslamabad.BeforetheSyriancivilwarsoutbreak,Pakistanregularlysoldlarge
quantitiesofwheatandcottontoSyriainexchangeforsubsidizedSyriancrudeoil.Pakistanhopestorevivetheseeconomic
dealsbyensuringthatanegotiatedsolutiontoendtheSyrianconflictisimplementedonAssadsterms.
GeopoliticalRisksAssociatedwithPakistansProAssadPosition
PakistansproAssadstancehasreaffirmedIslamabadsimportanceasanarbiterinMiddleEastconflicts.However,the
PakistanigovernmentsSyriapolicyisaccompaniedbymanyrisks.TherearetwomainreasonswhyNawazSharifs
handlingoftheSyriancrisiscoulddestabilizePakistan.
First,PakistanssupportforAssadcouldexacerbatesectariantensionsbetweenShiitesandSunnisinPakistan.Pakistani
ShiitemilitaryvolunteershavejoinedtheIranianRevolutionaryGuardinSyria,undertheumbrellaoftheZeinabiyoununit.
SupportersofIslamabadsSyriacampaignarguethattheserecruitmentswillhelpunitePakistan,astheygivePakistans
historicallymarginalizedShiiteminorityarareopportunitytoparticipateinpolitics.
IransrecruitmentofmilitaryvolunteersfromPakistanhasalsoboostedtheeconomicprospectsofsomePakistaniShiites.
IranianrecruitersofferPakistaniShiitemenaged1835amonthlysalaryof120,000Pakistanirupees($1,100).Iranhas
alsoofferedtopayfortheeducationofthechildrenofPakistanisoldierskilledinSyriaandhasagreedtofundannual
pilgrimagetripstoIran,Iraq,andSyriaforthefamiliesoffallensoldiers.
ManySunnisviewSharifsalignmentwithAssadasblatantpanderingtoPakistaniShiites.SomemembersofPakistans
WahhabicommunityhaveturnedtoIslamicextremism,andthePakistaniTalibanhassentmilitantstojointhefightagainst
AssadinSyria.TopreventunrestamongsttheWahhabicommunity,PakistaniofficialshaveinsistedthatPakistans
cooperationwithIraninSyriahasnotjeopardizedIslamabadsallianceswithSaudiArabiaandotherSunniArabstates.
TodemonstratethelimitsofthePakistanIranpartnership,thePakistanigovernmentremainedneutralduringtheJanuary
2016RiyadhTehrandiplomaticstandoff.However,thisneutralstancedidnotappeaseWahhabicommunityleadersin
Pakistan.PakistaniWahhabiswantedShariftounconditionallysupportSaudiArabiaandcondemntheIraniangovernment
foritsallegedroleintheattackontheSaudiembassyinTehran.DissatisfactionamongstPakistaniWahhabiscouldincrease
ISISrecruitmentinPakistanandweakentheloyaltyofIslamistsinthePakistanimilitarytoSharifsgovernment.
Second,SharifsalliancewithAssadcouldcauseSaudiArabiatorebalanceitsforeignpolicyinawaythatthreatens
Pakistansinternalstabilityandvitalinterests.ManySaudiofficialsviewsPakistansrefusaltocontributetroopstoRiyadhs
airwarinYemen,whilesupportingIransobjectivesinSyria,asabetrayalofalongstandingalliance.Pakistansrefusalto
contributegroundtroopstoSaudiArabias34nationIslamicmilitaryallianceorparticipateintheU.S.ledantiISIS
campaignhavefurtherentrenchedRiyadhsnegativeperceptionsofPakistansinvolvementinMiddleEastaffairs.
However,SaudiArabiasdiscontentwithPakistansSyriapolicyisunlikelytoresultinasuspensionofthelongstanding
RiyadhIslamabadsecuritypartnership.PakistanhasbeenamajormanufacturerandexporterofarmstoSaudiArabiafor
decades.ManyanalystsalsobelievethatPakistanwouldsellnuclearweaponstoSaudiArabiaifIranweretoviolatethe
termsofthenucleardeal.
EventhoughSaudiArabiastillwantstomaintainadiplomaticpartnershipwithPakistan,tensionsoverSyriahavecaused
RiyadhtolookforalternativetradeandsecuritypartnersinSouthAsia.Inrecentmonths,SaudiArabiahasstrengthenedits
securitylinkswithIndia.SaudiofficialsbelievethatIndiaisarapidlydevelopingcountrythatcanhelpRiyadhcontainIrans
increasinglyassertiveforeignpolicy.
AdeepeningSaudiArabiaPakistanriftcouldcauseRiyadhtopressurePakistantosuspendmilitaryactivitiesthatIndia
believesarecontributingtoterrorism.IfSharifcomplieswithSaudipressuretoaccommodateIndiasinterests,theriskofa
militarycoupinPakistancouldincreaseconsiderably.

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ToappeaseSaudiArabia,PakistanhasdownplayeditssupportforAssadbymaintaininganofficialstanceofstrict
neutralityintheSyrianconflict.AsPakistansmilitarycooperationwithIraninSyriahasgrowndramaticallyinrecent
months,SaudidiplomatshavebecomeincreasinglyskepticalofIslamabadsneutralitypledge.UnlessSaudiArabias
relationshipswithRussiaandIrandrasticallyimprove,SharifmightbeforcedtosoftenhisproAssadstancetoensurethe
survivalofhisgovernment.
PakistansproAssadstanceintheSyriancivilwarisIslamabadsmostextensiveforayintoaMiddleEastconflictin
moderntimes.Sofar,PakistansinterventioninSyriahashadmixedresults.SharifssupportfortheAssadregimehas
strengthenedIslamabadsallianceswithIranandRussia.YetthesediplomaticgainshavecounteredbystrongerSaudi
ArabiaIndiatiesandtherisingtideofSunniIslamicextremisminPakistan.Therefore,NawazShariffacesanuphill
struggletoensurethatholdinghisgroundinSyriadoesnotcausePakistantospiraldownwardstowardpoliticalinstability
andSunniextremistviolence.
SamuelRamaniisaDPhilCandidateinInternationalRelationsatSt.AntonysCollege,UniversityofOxford.Heisalsoa
journalistwhocontributesregularlytotheWashingtonPostandHuffingtonPost.HecanbefollowedonTwitterat
samramani2andonFacebookatSamuelRamani.

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