Trip Generation Models Applied &

Introduction to Trip Distribution

USP 587: Introduction to Travel
Demand Modeling
Winter 2010
Instructor: John Gliebe

Trip Generation Review

Trip Production

Home end of HB
trip or origin of
NHB trip.

Trip Attraction

1 HBW
Attraction

1 HBO
Production

Non-home end of
HB trip or
destination of
NHB trip.

Home

1 HBO
Attraction

1 HBW
Production

Work

1 NHBW
Production

1 NHBW
Attraction

Shop

Example of Alternative Ways

to Classify Trips (Oahu MPO)

Trip Attraction Rates and

Variables (Oahu MPO)

Area Type Definitions (Oahu

MPO)

Balancing Productions and

Attractions (Oahu MPO)

Trip Attraction Models

Estimate from household survey using information on

land use, population and employment as explanatory
variables

Linear, Non-linear regression, Cross-class/MCA

Often not very statistically robust--need

establishment surveys, which are rare
Why not use ITE trip generation rates?

Many land use types give vehicle trips only

For local impact studies--not designed for regional use

Very specific land use types difficult to maintain at a regional

level
Computationally difficult to process

Dont forecast very specific land use types for distant time
horizons, e.g., 25 years from now

Trip Attraction Rates

(Oahu MPO)

Trip Distribution in Classical

4-Step Process
Transportation
System

Land Use / Activity System

Trip (End) Generation

Travel
Service

Trip Distribution/Destination Choice

Mode Choice

O-D
LOS

Link LOS
Link Volume

Network Assignment

Skims

Skims are full matrices of level-of-service information from

production to attraction TAZs (Usually Production ->
Attraction format)
Level-of-service information can include:

Highway time
Distance
Tolls
Transit in-vehicle time
Transit access/egress time
Transit Fare
Waiting Time
Number of transfers
Terminal time (accounts for intrazonal walking, parking time)

Skims

Tautology- Chicken and the Egg

Congested time comes from demand,
but demand is based on
congestionwhere does initial demand
come from?

Previous model runs, or

Observed congested network speeds, or
Through feedback

Trip Distribution

Trip Distribution Models Link Trip Ends

(Productions and Attractions) into Trip
Flows.
Model Types:

Growth Factor Methods

Gravity Model
Disaggregate Destination Choice Model

Trip Distribution

Inputs

Trip productions and attractions, by TAZ

Travel time/cost between zones ~ skims!
A calibrated trip distribution model

Output

Trip matrix in production->attraction

format for the trip purpose and market
segment (if market segmentation is used)

The Gravity Model

Ti , j = Pi *

Aj * Fi , j * Ki , j
1

(A * F
j

i, j

* Ki , j )

where:
Ti,j =
Pi
=
Aj =
Fi,j =
Ki,j =

the number of trips between zone i and zone j

the trip productions for zone i
the trip attractions for zone j
an accessibility factor associated with the measure
of travel impedance from zone i to zone j
the socio-economic or physically related factor for
all movements between zone i and zone j

The Gravity Model

What are Friction factors ??

F-factors relate the cost of travel to the
propensity to travel
F-factors are higher for zones that are
closer together, and lower for zones that
are further apart
Newtons Law of Gravity: The closer two
objects are to each other, the greater
their interaction

The Gravity Model

What do F-Factors look like?
Friction Factors

Propensity Weight

90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

Trips

11

13

Distance

15

17

19

21

The Gravity Model

What are K-Factors?

K-Factors account for all of the variables
that F-factors and cost cant account for.
Physical characteristics like bridge
crossings
Socio-economic characteristics like highincome workers working in downtown
office buildings

Gravity Model Implementation

First Calculate Propensity Matrix by using a
function that relates cost to F-factors
Cost

F-Factor

0-1

9999

1-2

8764

2-3

7981

Production Attraction TAZ

TAZ
1 2 3 . . . n

.
.
.
n

Cost Matrix
(i.e. travel
time)

&

Production
TAZ

.
.
.
n

Or Continuous
Function

Attraction TAZ

Propensity
Matrix

Gravity Model Implementation

Then balance the propensity matrix to trip
productions and attractions from trip generation
Production
TAZ

Attraction TAZ
1 2 3 . . . n

Production
TAZ

1
2
3
.
.
.
n

Attraction TAZ
1 2 3 . . . n

Propensity
Matrix

2
3
Matrix
Balancing

( Cost * FFactors )

.
.
.

Row and
Column
Totals =
Trips From
Trip
Generation

Trip Matrix

Iterative Proportional Fitting

Matrix Balancing, a.k.a. Iterative

Proportional Fitting a.k.a. BiProportional Fitting a.k.a. Fratar
Method to fit a seed matrix to a set of
target row and column totals. The final
balanced matrix resembles the seed
matrix as much as possible while still
matching the targets!

Iterative Proportional Fitting

Iteration 0:

1 2 3 . . . n
1
2
3
.

Seed
Matrix

/
/

=
=

.
n

Row
Targets

Row
Row
Totals Balancing
Coefficients

Calculate row
coefficients
= row targets
divided by
actual row
totals

Iterative Proportional Fitting

Iteration 1:

1 2 3 . . . n
1
2
3
.
.
.

Seed Matrix
* Row
Balancing
Coefficients

/ /

/ /

= = = =

Column
Targets
Column
Totals
Column
Coefficients

Calculate column
coefficients
= column targets
divided by column
totals of { seed
matrix * row
coefficients }

Iterative Proportional Fitting

Iteration 2:

1 2 3 . . . n
1
2
3
.
.
.
n

Iteration 1
Matrix *
Column
Coefficients
Row
Targets

/
/

=
=

=
Row
Row
Totals Balancing
Coefficients

Calculate new
row coefficients
= row targets
divided by row
totals {iteration 1
matrix * column
coefficients }

Iterative Proportional Fitting

Iteration 3:

1 2 3 . . . n
1
2
3
.
.
.

Iteration 2
Matrix * Row
Balancing
Coefficients

/ /

/ /

= = = =

Column
Targets
Column
Totals
Column
Totals

Calculate new
column coefficients
= column targets
divided by column
totals of { iteration 2
matrix * row
coefficients }

Iterative Proportional Fitting

And so on, until the maximum difference

between any row or column total and the
target for that row or column total is below
some threshold
Note: Sum of target row totals MUST EQUAL
sum of target column totals
Guaranteed convergence unless you have
too many empty (zero) cells in your seed
matrix

Gravity Model Implementation

Seed matrix = Propensity Matrix

Row Totals = Trip Productions
Column Totals = Trip Attractions
Balanced Matrix = Trip Matrix (in
Production->Attraction Format)

Summary Statistics
Comparison of Estimated and Observed Trip Length Distributions, Non-Work T rip Purposes

Standard Deviation
of Trip Length

Mean Trip Length

Trip Purpose

Observed

Estimated

Estimated
Observed

Observed

Estimated

Difference

Coincidence
of
Distribution
Ratio

Estimated v Observed
District Interchange
Comparison
R2 Value

Home-Based School

13.13

13.09

0.997

6.259

5.942

-0.316

0.851

0.986

Home-Based Shop

14.45

14.49

1.003

6.719

6.397

-0.322

0.850

0.992

Home-Based Social\Re

15.60

15.56

0.997

9.180

7.430

-1.750

0.803

0.986

Home-Based Other

16.10

16.07

0.998

8.352

7.664

-0.688

0.854

0.989

Non-Home-Based Work 17.01

16.97

0.998

8.726

9.078

0.352

0.854

0.983

Non-Home-Based Non-

15.03

0.999

7.568

6.701

-0.867

0.833

0.989

15.05

Trip Length Frequency Distribution

School Trip Length Frequency Distribution
Estimated vs. Observed
0.16
0.14

0.1
0.08

Observed

0.06

Estimated

0.04
0.02

Trave l Tim e (m in)

37

33

30

27

24

21

18

15

12

0
6

Frequency

0.12

District Interchanges
School Observed v Estimated District Interchanges
Sum of EST_TRPADIST
PDIST
1
2
3
4
1 Est
545
133
23
Obs
0
0
0
2 Est
4102
52171
3387
Obs
2261
48786
3425
3 Est
1091
4769
61281
Obs
3104
2928
71008
4 Est
813
1676
7781
Obs
1878
0
7138
5 Est
197
3833
589
Obs
0
0
0
6 Est
269
790
4802
Obs
706
0
1944
7 Est
620
1394
1765
Obs
0
461
0
8 Est
817
1589
476
Obs
0
2020
0
9 Est
517
1236
604
Obs
0
0
0
10 Est
8638
5983
1891
Obs
6645
17702
830
11 Est
656
667
438
Obs
671
1472
0
12 Est
682
543
343
Obs
2824
2335
0
13 Est
733
922
963
Obs
1590
0
0
Total
Est
19679
75704
84345
Obs
19679
75704
84345

5
2
0
262
0
1501
0
87939
95929
83
0
2183
0
2153
0
89
0
233
0
271
0
168
0
123
0
921
0
95929
95929

6
8
0
8835
11644
1969
1100
1693
2956
23654
31644
5589
3045
8480
3882
792
0
1028
0
891
0
369
0
195
0
769
0
54271
54271

7
4
0
1437
0
6372
573
3288
5346
1341
1709
33135
42639
4518
1447
198
0
322
0
390
0
164
0
108
0
439
0
51714
51714

8
11
0
1925
0
1484
671
6224
2216
2716
0
3041
2589
91981
108906
902
0
1568
0
1373
0
666
0
400
0
2091
0
114382
114382

9
15
0
990
0
294
0
337
0
199
0
110
0
406
0
12241
18169
1948
2820
9047
7035
1996
0
133
0
306
0
28024
28024

10
5
0
951
0
299
0
597
0
260
0
170
0
601
0
2901
4363
26532
31970
876
0
1273
0
186
0
1683
0
36333
36333

11
12
13
Grand Total
130
7
13
8
902
0
0
0
902
902
1499
532
457
569
77118
2920
4886
3196
0
77118
624
326
308
522
80841
1457
0
0
0
80841
681
915
769
2747
115460
0
0
0
0
115463
127
136
70
146
33353
0
0
0
0
33353
183
182
140
330
50923
0
0
0
0
50923
481
619
430
1250
114697
0
0
0
0
114696
1205
2656
240
446
24552
0
0
0
0
24552
437
3456
516
1860
40255
1662
3263
0
540
40255
53890
7400
5076
1774
97500
57714
939
3475
3160
97500
5419 73080
6574
2727
94197
4155 78505
8614
780
94197
2837
5452 40031
4091
55124
540
8237 39338
1850
55124
934
6057
4921 124219
144958
0
4988
4922 133457
144957
68448 100818 59545 140689
929881
68448 100818 59545 140689
929881

District Interchanges
School T rip Estimated/Observed
PDIST

Total

ADIST
1
1
N.A.

2
N.A.

3
N.A.

4
N.A.

5
N.A.

6
N.A.

7
N.A.

8
N.A.

9
N.A.

10
N.A.

11
N.A.

12

13
N.A.

0.01

Grand Total
1.00

1.81

1.07

0.99

N.A.

0.76

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

0.51

0.11

0.14

N.A.

1.00

0.35

1.63

0.86

N.A.

1.79

11.12

2.21

N.A.

N.A.

0.43

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.00

0.43

N.A.

1.09

0.92

0.57

0.62

2.81

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.00

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

0.75

0.78

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.00

0.38

N.A.

2.47

N.A.

1.84

0.78

1.17

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.00

N.A.

3.02

N.A.

N.A.

2.18

3.12

0.84

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.00

N.A.

0.79

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

0.67

0.66

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.00

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

0.69

0.83

0.26

1.06

N.A.

3.44

1.00

10

1.30

0.34

2.28

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.29

N.A.

0.93

7.88

1.46

0.56

1.00

11

0.98

0.45

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.30

0.93

0.76

3.50

1.00

12

0.24

0.23

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

5.25

0.66

1.02

2.21

1.00

13

0.46

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.21

1.00

0.93

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

Advanced Topics

Composite Impedance

Considers transit accessibility

Results in a lower impedance value for
transit-accessible zones
Results in a higher impedance value for
zones with no transit accessibility
Used for all Home-Based Work trips

Advanced Topics

Composite Impedance; harmonic

mean

where:

Cij
hij
tij
f

Cij =

1
1 f
+
hij ti j

impedance between zone i and zone j

highway travel time
transit time
weight

Advanced Topics

Logsum from mode choice model as the

measurement of accessibility by ALL
modes of transportation
Discrete Choice Models