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Article Details:
Article Title: The Poisson-inverse Gaussian distribution as an alternative to the negative binomial
Article Author:
Journal Title: Scandinavian actuarial journal.
Journal Volume: 1987
Journal Issue:
Journal Month/Date:
Journal Year: 1987
Pages: 113-127
GZM TN: 2860378
SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS:
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8/5/2016 10:41 AM
JUN 2 9. 1988
1surance Mathematics
__.-------:
ISSN
cand1nav1cin
ctuarial
1Journal
Ut
e rnsurance for Insulin-Dependent
62
74
83
he Poisson-Exponential Model and
104
{Editors
l Bengt von
Bahr
~Ragnar Norberg
~Henrik Ramlau-Hansen
/Matti Ruohonen
RECE\VED
JUN 241988
UN\V. WIS. LIBRAR'f -
t
Swedish Society of Actuaries
ident: Bjorn Ajne, Fil. lie., Actuary of
e Skandia Insurance Co., Stockholm.
-President: Nils Wikstad, B.A., Actuary
the Sverige Reinsurance Co., Stock1lm.
etary: Tuomo Virolainen, Fil. kand.,
tuary of Life Insurance Co., Lanssakringar AB, Stockholm.
ess of the Society: P.O. Box 14023, S440 Stockholm, Sweden.
"Ci/~
tI Managing Co-Editor
rjiirn Palmgren
j
'
1arial Journal
Abstract
Editorial Office
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, P.O. Box
14023, S-10440 Stockholm, Sweden
~ubscription
Rate
dvertising
1e Almqvist & Wiksell Periodical Company
0. Box 638
10128 Stockholm, Sweden
inters
nqvist & Wiksell
'5181 Uppsala, Sweden
I
I
The basic distributional properties and estimation techniques of the Poisson-Inverse Gaussian (P-IG) distribution are reviewed. Its use both as a
mixed and compound claim frequency model are also discussed, as well as
a review of the aggregate claims distribution when the P-IG is the claim
frequency component. The many properties which are analogous to those
of the negative binomial are emphasized, and the superior fit to automobile
claim frequency data is demonstrated. The P-IG merits consideration as a
model for claim frequency data due to its good fit to data, physical justification, and its abundance of convenient mathematical properties.
1. Introduction
114
G. E. Willmot
ed to work with since the mixing distribution is more complex and p~rame
ter estimation is more difficult. Sichel (1971) anq Rubinstein, Zucchini &
Juritz (1987) discuss a second generalization of the P-IG.
The mathematical and statistical properties of the distribution together
with some of the ways in which it may be used to model certain phenomena
are reviewed in this paper, and the extremely good fit to automobile claim
frequency data is demonstrated using the same data as Gossiaux & Lemaire
(1981). Section 2 gives the distributional form, the moments, and a few
other characteristics. Section 3 describes an inverse Gaussian mixed Poisson process where the P-IG arises naturally, and the resulting model may
also be interpreted as a birth process model (cf. Biihlmann, 1970). An
interpretation of the P-IG as a compound Poisson distribution itself suggests its potential use as a model for multiple claims from a single event,
and this is described in section 4. A discussion of the compound P-IG to
represent the total claims distribution is the subject matter of section 5.
Various methods of estimation are briefly reviewed in section 6, and the fit
of the model to the data of Gossiaux & Lemaire (1981) is discussed in
section 7.
A."e-).
--u(A.)dA.; n = 0, 1, 2, ...
o n!
oo
(1)
where
(2)
L Pn z" =
00
P(z) =
e'41-l{l-[1-2P(z-1))'12}
(3)
n=O
(4)
and
(5)
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
n 1)
')R (
2
1 -3-) p +
p n=2 3 4
Pn=--=tf._
' ' , ..
1+2/3
2n
n-I
n(n-1)(1+2/3) n- 2
_uB-1
-~~
(2n/3)-
I
I
l/2(--=tf._
2R)n-J/2n -l n--')oo
(7)
1+2/3
'
(2)
(6)
I
(1)
115
I
I
p<k>(l) = k
(8)
k-1
m=O
(k-1-m)!m!
(9)
and so the mean and variance an~ and (l+/3) respectively. The distribution is quite heavily skewed to the right and hence conservative from an
insurer's standpoint, and is even more so than the negative binomial
distribution since, for given mean and variance 02, the skewness exceeds
that of the negative binomial by - 1a- 3(02-) 2
Like the negative binomial, the distribution is unimodal and closed under
convolution. If N;; i= l, 2, ... , m are independent P-IG random variables
with parameters; and P respectively, then N 1+N2+ ... +Nm is again P-IG,
but with parameters 1+ 2+ ... +m and /3.
Further discussion of the distribution may be found in Sichel (1971),
Willmot (1986), and Rubinstein et al. (1987).
(3)
(5)
Lundberg (1940) and McFadden (1965) discuss the mixed Poisson process
in great detail. The marginal probability of n claims in the time interval
(s, s+t] for this process is given by
Pn(t) =
(10)
n!
G. E. Willmot
116
i
!\
II
il
I\.
II
ii".
ll
l'
I
.A. (t) = n
(11)
u<n)(t)
where u<k>(t) is the kth derivative of the Laplace transform of the mixing
function, namely,
(12)
Thus, if n claims have occurred in (0, t], then ).n(t) h+o(h) is the probability
of a claim in (t, t+h].
Let Ka(x) be the modified Bessel function of the third kind (cf. Jorgensen,
1982). Then
K
(x)
n+l/2
= (_!!_)112e-x ~
2x
(n+k)! (2x)-k
L.J ( -k)lkl
k=O n
'
(lJ)
= Ka+1(x)
Ka(X) '
(14)
then, for the inverse Gaussian mixed Poisson process, it may be shown that
(15)
Hence an explicit expression is obtainable for ).n(t). Since
R_112(X) = 1
(16)
and
Ra(X) = ~+{Ra-1(x)}-1,
x
(17)
= 1{Q(z)-l}
(13)
etines
(14)
t
~=0,1,2,. ...
(15)
(16)
Z _
Q( ) - ~qn
Zn_
rely.
l
112
(20)
(_Jj}__)n
1+2/3
2(n !)f (
~)
. ,n-1,2,3,.
...
112
{ 1-(1+2,8)- } .
(21)
(17)
(19)
and
qn-
(18)
where
(12)
117
(22)
P=2X(X-1).
(23)
As an example of the fit of (21), Kupper ( 1965) gives the number of injuries
per accident in traffic accidents involving bodily injury in Zurich in 1961-2.
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
118
G. E. Willmot
The distribution (,71) and the logarithmic distribution were both fitted to the
data by the method of maximum likelihood. The fitted values are given 'in
the table below.
Number of
Injuries
1
2
3
4
5
6
?!:-7
Total
Number of
Accidents
Logarithmic
Series
4 121
430
71
19
6
4
1 (11)
4 080.78
479.68
75.18
13.26
2.49
0.49
0.12
(21)
4 124.03
414.93
83.49
21.00
5.92
1.79
0.84
4 652
4 652.00
28.33
3
0.000
4 652.00
3.31
3
0.346
X2(r)
r
SL
Distribution
i
, I/
'i '11
'
Suppose that the total claims is given by Y=X1+ ... +XN where N is a P-IG
random variable. If the X;'s are i.i.d. with distribution function F(x) and
Laplace transform
/(s) =
L'' e-xdF(x),
(24)
= eiP-10-{t-2P[fb}-1]}112>.
(25)
the recursive approach of Sundt & Jewell (1981) and Panjer (1981) may be
used. As discussed by Willmot (1986), the probabilities {qn; n= 1, 2, 3, ... }
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
119
satisfy qn=(a+bn- 1) qn-I for n~2 and so the distribution with compound
Laplace transform Q[/'(s)] may be obtained recursively, and this distribution -.
used as the effective '"single claim;" amount distribution in a (second)
compound Poisson recursion to get the distribution of Y.
In addition, from (7) and Embrechts, Maejima & Teugels (1985), the
asymptotic formula'
;,'
',
l;,.
(27)
complements the recursive approach, which is more cumbersome for large
x. In (27), the distribution function F(x) must be non-arithmetic and x>O is
the solution to
4 652.00
3.31
(28)
Under the same conditions, the stop-loss premium satisfies (cf. Teugels &
Willmot, 1987)
0.346
:atistic, degrees of freedom and
n. For this particular example,
e data, which are quite heavily
d to follow a Poisson distributhan the negative binomial as a
L
oo
Pr(Y>t) dt-f!4l-I
{-f'<-x>}
2nf3
112
(29)
Once again, (27) is reminiscent of the asymptotic formula for the compound negative-binomial (cf. Embrechts et al., 1985.)
6. P-IG Parameter estimation
(24)
Suppose that the data consist of n i.i.d. observations which may be grouped
so that
(30)
Then
(31)
(25)
1te the distribution of Y. Since
merically invert the transform
m method (Bertram, 1981), or
X= n- 1
L kFk.
(32)
k=O
/l=X
(33)
and (33) is in fact the maximum likelihood estimate of, as shown below.
Thus, it is of interest to consider estimation for {3.
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
120
G. E. Willmot
(34)
k=O
(36)
{log(n- 1F 0)} 2
Sichel (1982) has found (36) to be better than (35) in many situations, but
maximum likelihood estimation is often much better than either of these
two.
Maximum likelihood estimation for the P-IG is similar to that for the
negative binomial in many respects. Like the negative binomial, the maximum likelihood estimate of the mean is the sample mean (i.e. (33) gives the
estimate of) and a relatively simple one-dimensional Newton-Raphson
numerical routine may be used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate fl
of ,8, as is now demonstrated.
The log-likelihood for the sample is
00
l(,,8) =
2: Fklogpk.
(37)
k=O
. I
(38)
and that
.I
(39)
The coefficients of! on both sides of (39) are equal, and so division by pk
yields
f3
where
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
f3
(40)
121
(4ll
(34)
Similarly, since
(35)
(42)
it follows that
timator (Sichel, 1982). If the
xe efficient and equally simple
md the proportion of zeroes to
8
-log
pk= 8/3
11 (
.c..
f3
8
k-tk
-log
pk ) + --.
8
f3
(43)
(38)
(44)
co
(45)
LFkt:=nX,
k=O
where t: is the maximum likelihood estimate of tk. From (37) and (40),
Fk tk.
k=O
Since partials of (37) with respect to and f3 are identically zero at the
maximum likelihood estimates, it follows from (44) that
2
x-(
/3) f
{3
f3
I+
(46)
Fk tk,
k=O
and so setting (46) equal to zero and using (45) yields the result (33). Sichel
(1971) and Willmot (1988) discuss these results in greater detail.
To find /5, let {pk(/3); k=O, 1, 2, ... } be the probabilities of the P-IG with
replaced by ft=X, treated as a function of {3. These probabilities are easily
computed using (6) and (7). Also let tk(/3)=(k+l)Pk+l(/3)/pk(/3). Then, from
(45), tJ is the solution to
co
(47)
c(/3)= LFktk(/3)-nX=O.
(39)
k=O
co
co
(40)
(48)
k=O
P-c(/J) [c'(/J)r 1
(49)
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
122
G. E. Willmot
- 2
k(k-l)Fk-(X) Fk_ 2
2
= (k-1)(2k-3)Fk_ 1-2k(k-l)Fk
(50)
f3
may be
gative binomial from a statistip. 40), due to the fact that the
arameters (one of which is the
cally independent (cf. Cox &
1erty holds for the P-IG, since
where f3 is (replaced by)
(51)
et al. (1987).
ution {pi(l-p 0 ); n= l, 2, 3, ... }
td Sichel (1986), while a P-IG
1less & Willmot (1987).
123
Data set I
..
No. of
claims
k
No. of
policies
Fk
NB
P-IG
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
103 704
14 075
1 766
255
45
6
2
103 723.61
13 989.95
1 857.08
245.19
32.29
4.24
0.56
103 710.03
13 989.95
1 784.91
254.49
40.42
6.94
1.26
Total
119 853
119 852.92
119 852.70
Maximum log-likelihood
Pearson goodness-of-fit
Chi-squared
Degrees of freedom
Significance level
-54 615.315
-54 609.758
12.37
3
0.006
0.78
3
0.855
Data set 2
data
ata sets giving the number of
r a fixed period of time. The
on is inappropriate, yielding a
1e data is given for the negative
! binomial is adequate in some
all six cases using either the
imum log-likelihood. Furtherata set 4. The fit of the P-IG to
requency classes 3 and 4 are
m statistic (as Gossiaux and
udged to be excellent on this
expected frequencies are large
.on to the Pearson statistic is
No. of
claims
k
No. of
policies
Fk
NB
P-IG
0
1
2
3
4
5
370 412
46 545
3 935
317
28
3
370 438.94
46 451.28
4 030.50
297.82
20.09
1.28
370 435.18
46 476.38
3 995.76
307.67
23.12
1.75
Total
421 240
421 239.91
421 239.86
Maximum log-likelihood
Pearson goodness-of-fit
Chi-squared
Degrees of freedom
Significance level
-171 136.966
-171 134.472
7.94
2
0.019
2.74
2
0.254
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
124
G. E. Willmot
Data set 3
iii
1;:
No. of
Claims
k
No. of
Policies
Fk
NB
P-IG
6
7
7 840
1 317
239
42
14
4
4
1
7 847.01
1 288.36
256.53
54.07
11.71
2.58
0.57
0.13
7 844.01
1 306.12
238.23
53.27
13.75
3.89
1.17
0.37
Total
9 461
9 460.96
9 460.81
!:
2
3
4
I?
:11
Maximum log-likelihood
Pearson goodness-of-fit
Chi-squared
Degrees of freedom
Significance level
-5 348.040
-5 343.511
14.73
3
0.002
4.54
3
0.209
Data set 4
No. of
claims
k
No. of
policies
Fk
0
1
2
3
4
5
Total
NB
P-IG
3 719
232
38
7
3
3 719.22
229.90
39.91
8.42
1.93
0.46
3 718.58
234.54
34.86
8.32
2.45
0.80
4 000
3 999.84
3 999.55
Maximum log-likelihood
Pearson goodness-of-fit
Chi-squared
Degrees of freedom
Significance level
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
-1 183.550
-1 183.524
1.17
2
0.557
0.54
2
0.762
125
Data set 5
"-.
No. of
claims
G
44.01
06.12
38.23
53.27
13.75
3.89
1.17
0.37
0
2
3
4
Total
60.81
-5 343.511
4.54
3
0.209
No. of
policies
Fk
P-IG
NB
96 978
9 240
704
43
9
96 980.82
9 230.90
708.62
50.05
3.38
96 978.53
9 240.40
697.63
52.85
4.21
106 974
106 973.77
106 973.62
Maximum log-likelihood
Pearson goodness-of-fit
Chi-squared
Degrees of freedom
Significance level
-36 104.099
-36 103.574
9.03
2
0.011
6.12
2
0.047
Data set 6
lG
No. of
claims
k
No. of
policies
Fk
NB
P-IG
20 596.76
2 631.03
318.37
37.81
4.45
0.52
0.06
20 595.74
2 638.81
308.08
39.68
5.65
0.87
0.14
23 589.00
23 588.97
!34.54
34.86
8.32
2.45
0.80
2
3
4
5
6
20 592
2 651
297
41
7
0
1
)99.55
Total
23 589
118.58
-1 183.524
0.54
2
0.762
Maximum log-likelihood
Pearson goodness-of-fit
Chi-squared
Degrees of freedom
Significance level
-10 223.420
-10 221.868
3.60
2
0.165
0.76
2
0.684
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
126
G. E. Willmot
1
!
8. Conclusions
References
11,I
! '
Arfwedson, G. (1955). Research in collective risk theory. Part 2. Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift 38, 53-100.
Beard, R., Pentikiiinen, T. & Pesonen, E. (1984). Risk theory 3rd ed. Chapman and Hall,
London.
Bertram, J. (1981). Numerische Berechnung von Gesamtschadenverteilungen. Blatter der
Deutscher Gesellschaft fiir Versicherungsmathematik 15, 175-194.
Biihlmann, H. (1970). Mathematical methods in risk theory. Springer-Verlag, New York.
Cox, D. & Reid, N. (1987). Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference
(with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 49, 1-39.
Dean, C., Lawless, J. & Willmot, G. (1987). A mixed Poisson-Inverse Gaussian regression
model. To appear.
Embrechts, P., Maejima, M. & Teugels, J. (1985). Asymptotic behaviour of compound
distributions. Astin Bulletin 15, 45-48.
Engen, S. (1974). On species frequency models. Biometrika 61, 263-270.
Folks, J. & Chhikara, R. (1978). The Inverse Gaussian distribution and its statistical application-A review. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 40, 263-289.
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Bulletin of the Association of Swiss Actuaries 81, 87-95.
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New York.
Jorgensen, B. (1982). Statistical properties of the generalized inverse Gaussian distribution.
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Kestemont, R. & Paris, J. (1985). Sur l'ajustement du nombre de sinistres. Bulletin of the
Association of Swiss Actuaries 85, 157-164.
Kupper, J. (1965). Some aspects of cumulative risk. Astin Bulletin 3, 85-103.
Lundberg, 0. (1940). On random processes and their applications to sickness and accident
statistics. Almqvist & Wiksell, Uppsala.
McFadden, J. (1965). The mixed poisson process. Sankhya A 21, 83-92.
Ord, J. & Whitmore, G. (1986). The Poisson-Inverse Gaussian distribution as a model for
species abundance. Communications in Statistics A, Theory and Methods 15, 853-871.
Panjer, H. (1981). Recursive evaluation of a family of compound distributions. Astin Bulletin
12, 22-26.
Rubinstein, G., Zucchini, W. & Juritz, J. (1987). Parameter estimation for the Sichel distribution and its multivariate extension. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82,
938-944.
Seal, H. (1982). Mixed Poisson-an ideal distribution of claim numbers? Bulletin of the
Association of Swiss Actuaries 82, 293-295.
Scand. Actuarial J. 1987
127
Gordon E. Willmot
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, Ontario
Canada N2L 3G I