Estudio de Caso: Flujo de Fo

Inversion Inicial
Depreciacion anualValor de salvamento
Turbina de 30 MW
### $ 2,890,000,000 $
2,890,000,000
Infraestructura
$3,900,000,000 $
260,000,000
Interconexin a la red C
$1,675,000,000 $
111,666,667
Equipos perifricos
$2,890,000,000 $
192,666,667
Ingeniera e Interventora
$7,260,000,000 $
484,000,000
TOTAL
###
Financiacin
###

Terreno
Tasa regional

Seguro
Tasa regional

Egresos no deducibles
### ao 6
3.50%
Ao 1
Ao 2
Ao 3
2594250000
2672077500
2752239825
59769699.39
58420180.59
58582264.47

Caso: Flujo de Fondos

Valor en Libros Valor de Venta Otros ingresos
###
### $2,110,000,000

Tasa de crecimiento del seguro

3%

Ao 4
Ao 5
Ao 6
Ao 7
Ao 8
2834807019.75
2919851230
3007446767
###
3190600275
35787507.95
135450349.3
158517838.3 185201070
201951860.5

Ao 9
Ao 10
3286318284
3384907832
203243092.4 379063665.1

PERSONAL
0.522% Gerente General
6.96% Ingeniero Dia
6.96% Ingenieros Noche
6.96% Jefe de los Ingeniero
0.522% Contador
0.522% Auxiliares contables
0.522% Asistente Gerencia

1
1
1
1
1
2
1

Tasa de crecimiento salarial

Nmina

SALRIO BASE SUBS TPT Valor de H

###
###
$
2,200,000
###
$
2,200,000
###
$
4,500,000
###
$
1,900,000
$9,895.83
$
1,050,000 $ 77,700 $5,468.75
$
3,500,000
###

3%

Ao 1
Ao 2
Ao 3
324172557 333897734 343914666

Costos y Gastos fijos y v

NOMINA AO 1
Hora Extra diurna Hora extra nocturn Recargo Nocturno
$
$

45,833
15,277.78

Ao 4

42,778

Ao 5
354232106

25,667

Ao 6
364859069

375804841

Costos y Gastos fijos y variables

NOMINA AO 1
12%
Salario base + Recargos y horas ex PENSION
$
8,000,000 $ 960,000
$
3,116,667 $ 374,000
$
3,874,444 $ 464,933
$
4,500,000 $ 540,000
$
1,900,000 $ 228,000
$
1,050,000 $ 126,000
$
3,500,000 $ 420,000

Ao 7

4.17%
8.33%
VacacionesPrima Serv
$ 333,600 $ 666,400
$ 129,965 $ 259,618
$ 161,564 $ 322,741
$ 187,650 $ 374,850
$ 79,230 $ 158,270
$ 43,785 $ 87,465
$ 145,950 $ 291,550

Ao 8
Ao 9
Ao 10
387078987 398691356 410652097 422971660

8.33%
Cesantas
$ 666,400
$ 259,618
$ 322,741
$ 374,850
$ 158,270
$
87,465
$ 291,550

$
$
$
$
$
$
$

1%
Int cesant
80,000
31,167
38,744
45,000
19,000
10,500
35,000

$
$
$
$
$
$
$

4%
CCF
320,000
124,667
154,978
180,000
76,000
42,000
140,000

HORAS EXTRAS
Concepto
Horas extras diurna
Horas extras nocturna
Horas extras dominical y festivo diurna
Horas extras dominical y festivo nocturna
Recargo dominicales y festivas diurna
Recargo dominicales y festivas Nocturna

Recargo Nocturno

$
$
$
$
$
$
$

3%
2%
8.5%
ARL
ICBF
Sena
Salud
41,760 $ 240,000 $ 160,000 $ 680,000
216,920
269,661
313,200
9,918
5,481
18,270

%
1.25
1.75
2
2.5
0.75
1.1
0.35

Salario mes Fctor prest

###
152%
$ 4,512,622
145%
$ 5,609,808
145%
$ 6,515,550
145%
$ 2,628,688
138%
$ 1,452,696
138%
$ 4,842,320
138%
TOTAL MENSUAL
TOTAL ANUAL

Total mes
$
12,148,160
$
4,512,622
$
5,609,808
$
6,515,550
$
2,628,688
$
2,905,392
$
4,842,320
$
27,014,380
$ 324,172,557

Horas a laborar
Horas Totales Ing Mantenimiento

Semanal
60

Horas Totales resto pnal

48

Jornada ordinaria diurna Ing

45

Jornada ordinaria diurna Resto pnal

Dominical y festiva diurna Ing

Dominical y festiva diurna resto pnal

Mensual
240
192
180
36
13.5
12

Capacidad de generacin (kW)

Horas al ao
Capacidad de generacion por hora kWh

30,000
8,640
259,200,000

Ao 1
194,400,000
$
292
###

Cantidad
Precio(kWh)
Ventas

Ao 1
Combustible
Mantenimiento
Operacin
Alquiler y otros
Total

###
###
$4,471,200,000
$3,420,000,000
###

Tasa de crecimento del precio de combustible 4-10

Tasa de crecimento del precio de Operacin 2-10
Tasa de crecimento del precio de alquiler y otros 2-10

Combustible
Mantenimiento
Operacin
Alquiler y otros

Ao 1
$
$
$
$

2.50%
4%
4%

Ao 2
146 $
146
58
###
23 $
24
3,420,000,000 $3,556,800,000

Porcentaje de venta ao 1-4

Porcentaje de venta ao 5-10

Ao 2
Ao 3
194,400,000
$
292 $
### $

Ao 2

Ao 3
### $
### $
$4,650,048,000 $
$3,556,800,000 $
### $

Ao 3
$
146
$
58
$
25
$3,699,072,000

Ao 4
$
$
$
$

75%
90%

Venta
Ao 4
Ao 5
194,400,000
194,400,000
233,280,000
292 $
292
298
56,764,800,000
###
###

Gastos operacioneles
Ao 4
Ao 5
28,382,400,000
###
###
11,275,200,000
###
###
4,836,049,920 $ 5,029,491,917 $6,276,805,912
3,699,072,000 $ 3,847,034,880 $4,000,916,275
48,192,721,920
###
###

Ao 5
Ao 6
150 $
153 $
157
58
### $
58
26 $
27 $
28
3,847,034,880 $ 4,000,916,275 $4,160,952,926

Tasa de crecimiento de precio ao 5-10

Ao 6
233,280,000
304
$70,869,717,504

2%

Ao 7
Ao 8
Ao 9
233,280,000
233,280,000
233,280,000
310
316
322
### $73,732,854,091 $ 75,207,511,173

Ao 6
Ao 7
Ao 8
$36,677,688,570
### $38,534,496,554
$13,530,240,000
### $13,530,240,000
$ 6,527,878,149 $ 6,788,993,275 $ 7,060,553,006
$ 4,160,952,926 $ 4,327,391,043 $ 4,500,486,685
$60,896,759,645
### $63,625,776,244

Ao
$
$
$
$
$

9
39,497,858,968
13,530,240,000
7,342,975,126
4,680,506,152
65,051,580,246

Ao 7
Ao 8
Ao 9
$
161 $
165 $
169
$
58
### $
58
$
29 $
30 $
31
$ 4,327,391,043 $ 4,500,486,685 $ 4,680,506,152

Ao 10
$
174
$
58
$
33
$
4,867,726,398

Ao 10
233,280,000
329
###

Ao 10
###
###
$ 7,636,694,131
$ 4,867,726,398
###

Impuesto

34%

Ao 0
Ventas
Otros ingresos
Gastos operacionales
Costos de produccin
Egresos deducibles
Intereses
Depreciacin
Utilidad antes de impuestos
Impuestos causados
Abono a capital
Depreciacin
Valor de rescate
Otros ingresos no gravables
Inversin
Financiacin
Egresos no deducibles
Flujo Neto efectivo
Tasa de descuento
Tasa de oportunidad
VPN
TIR MODIFICADA

Ao 1
###
324172557
###
###
$3,938,333,333
0 $1,707,705,697
0 580619936.878
###
$3,938,333,333

$
$
-$

44,625,000,000
18,682,500,000
25,942,500,000

2654019699
$ 945,198,710

18%
13.50%
-23,292,281,645.26 ---->
-2% ---->

Ao 2
Ao 3
$ 56,764,800,000
333897734
$ 47,864,448,000

Ao 4
###
343914666
###

2958972916
2616051096
$ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333
$ 1,669,148,017 $ 1,673,778,985
567510325.746 569084854.866
###
###
$ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333

-$

2730497681
909,743,521 $

Ao 5
### $ 69,480,115,200
354232106
364859069
### $ 59,591,072,987

2206047537
$3,938,333,333
$1,022,500,227
347650077.146
###
$3,938,333,333

1715839831
3,938,333,333
3,870,009,980
1315803393.132
2,996,149,266.00
$
3,938,333,333
$
$

2810822089
2870594528
136,267,373 -$ 763,352,605 $

3055301580
441,089,074

VPN<0 , Por lo que el proyecto NO es viable o se considera No Aceptable.

Como TIRM (-2) < Td (18), Por lo tanto se sabe que nuestro proyecto no es V

Ao 6

Ao 7
Ao 8
Ao 9
### $72,287,111,854 $ 73,732,854,091 $75,207,511,173
375804841
387078987
398691356
410652097
### $62,241,255,102 $ 63,625,776,244 $65,051,580,246

1129738590
428985296.1
$ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333
$ 4,529,081,095 $ 5,291,459,136 $ 5,770,053,158 $ 5,806,945,497
1539887572.198 1799096106.342
1961818073.652 1974361469.048
###
###
$ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333 $ 3,938,333,333

5665964606
-$ 2,320,688,257 -$

3282871240
135,178,678 $

3392552136
3489561376
4,354,016,281 $ 4,281,355,985

Ao 10
$ 76,711,661,396
$ 2,110,000,000
422971660
$ 66,519,965,971

$ 1,048,333,333
$ 10,830,390,432
3682332746.982
$
$

1,048,333,333
2,890,000,000

3763971497
7,322,419,521

Prstamo
Tasa e.a.
Periodos
Tasa mensual
392,665,758.10

###
18%
84
1.50%

Cuota
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

81
82
83
84

###
###
###
###

Intereses
Amortizacin Deuda
280237500
###
278551076.13
###
276839355.9
###
275101959.87
###
273338502.89
###
271548594.07
###
269731836.61
###
267887827.78
###
266016158.83
###
264116414.84
###
262188174.69
###
260231010.94
###
258244489.73
###
256228170.71
###
254181606.9
###
252104344.63
###
249995923.43
###
247855875.9
###
245683727.67
###
243478997.22
###
241241195.8
###
238969827.37
###
236664388.41
###
234324367.86
###
231949247
###
229538499.34
###
227091590.46
###
224607977.95
###
222087111.24
###
219528431.54
###
216931371.64
###
214295355.85
###
211619799.81
###
208904110.44
###
206147685.72
###
203349914.64
###
200510177
###

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

intereses
###
###
###
###
###
###
428985295.25001

197627843.27
194702274.55
191732822.29
188718828.25
185659624.31
182554532.3
179402863.91
176203920.5
172956992.94
169661361.46
166316295.51
162921053.57
159474883
155977019.88
152426688.8
148823102.76
145165462.93
141452958.51
137684766.51
133860051.64
129977966
126037649.16
122038227.53
117978814.57
113858510.41
109676401.7
105431561.35
101123048.4
96749907.756
92311170
87805851.18
83232952.576
78591460.493
73880346.029
69098564.848
64245056.949
59318746.432
54318541.257
49243333
44091996.628
38863390.206
33556354.687
28169713.636

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
$9,921,540,184
$9,677,697,529
$9,430,197,234
$9,178,984,434
$8,924,003,443
$8,665,197,736
$8,402,509,944
$8,135,881,835
$7,865,254,304
$7,590,567,361
$7,311,760,113
$7,028,770,757
$6,741,536,560
$6,449,993,850
$6,154,078,000
$5,853,723,412
$5,548,863,505
$5,239,430,700
$4,925,356,402
$4,606,570,990
$4,283,003,797
$3,954,583,095
$3,621,236,084
$3,282,888,867
$2,939,466,442
$2,590,892,680
$2,237,090,312
$1,877,980,909
$1,513,484,865

22702272.969
17152820.692
11520126.631
5802942.159

### $1,143,521,379
### $ 768,008,442
### $ 386,862,811
### -$
5

amort
1,466,200,684.66
1,753,016,181.58
2,095,938,001.57
2,505,941,560.93
2,996,149,266.87
3,582,250,507.88
4,283,003,801.95