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The Geographical Journal, Vol. 171, No. 2, June 2005, pp. 99111
WENDY JEPSON
Department of Geography, 803D Eller O&M Building, Texas A&M University, College Station,
TX 77843-3147, USA
E-mail: wjepson@geog.tamu.edu
This paper was accepted for publication in February 2004
The Cerrado, the tropical savanna covering 22% of Brazils territory, or approximately
1.783 million km2, has suffered significant human impacts during the past three decades.
This paper re-examines estimates of Cerrado vegetation change dynamics using highresolution satellite remote sensing data from an area of interest extracted from eastern
Mato Grosso State. This region has undergone a high degree of typical agricultural
development since the early 1970s. Results indicate significant loss of original vegetation
as well as high levels of regeneration, suggesting Cerrado vegetation may be more resilient
to human impacts than catastrophic estimations suggest. The paper concludes with a
critical review of Cerrado land-cover change studies and the implications of evidence
for vegetation regeneration, land-cover dynamism and land-use intensification, paying
particular attention to spatial scale and research methods. The discussion concludes that
Cerrado land-cover change studied at a higher resolution and larger scales (smaller area)
is required to represent more effectively the complexity of land conversion for better
assessment of human impacts and environmental policy.
KEY WORDS: Brazil, land-cover change, tropical savanna, remote sensing, Cerrado,
environmental policy
Introduction
100
101
102
Mission
Sensor
Date
Path/row
LANDSAT 5
LANDSAT 5
LANDSAT 7
TM
TM
+ETM
26 September 1986
17 August 1992
21 August 1999
224/69
224/69
224/69
103
Table 2 Contingency table and accuracy indicators for classified image (1999)
Ground truth data
Cerrado
Agro-pastoral
Water
Total pixels
Accuracy (%)
95.34
0
97.56
Cerrado
Forest
Agro-pastoral
2294
21
106
19
0
4238
93
0
0
2406
21
4344
Total
Class accuracy
Overall accuracy
Overall kappa
2421
94.75
96.47
92.48
4257
99.55
93
0
6771
1986
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Area (km2)
Area (km2)
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
1274
526.10
635.32
1460.96
1999
1992
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Area (km2)
Area (km2)
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
1096.31
426.16
703.79
1668.12
104
Table 4 Cerrado land-cover sequences between 1986 and 1999 (area and proportion of total affected by each trajectory)
1986
1992
1999
Description
Proportion (%)
km2
Non-Cerrado
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Cerrado
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Cerrado
Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Non-Cerrado
Cerrado
Cerrado
Cerrado
Cerrado
32.6
10.19
7.3
10.77
4.89
6.11
6.21
21.93
1270.96
397.16
284.20
419.59
190
238.16
241.90
854.41
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Total
100
3896.38
Table 5 Estimated area of Cerrado, total (gross) converted area, and conversion rate in area of interest, 198699
Year
No.
years
1986
Estimated area
of Cerrado (km2)
Cerrado
converted (%)
Converted area
per year (km2)
Annual conversion
rate (% per year)
634.69
33.24
105.78
5.54
703.80
36.86
100.54
5.26
1338.49
70.10
102.96
5.39
1909.32
6
1992
1272.74
7
1999
Overall
Total
converted (km2)
1096.32
13
105
Table 6 Estimated area of Cerrado, net converted area, and conversion rate in area of interest, 1986 99
Year
No.
years
1986
Estimated area
of Cerrado (km2)
Cerrado
converted (%)
Converted area
per year (km2)
Annual conversion
rate (%)
109.22
5.72
18.18
0.95
275.63
14.43
39.32
1.97
384.85
20.15
29.60
1.55
1909.32
6
1992
1272.74
7
1999
Overall
Net converted
(km2)
1096.32
13
106
this pattern of land use to be reflected in the satellite data. Yet, in eastern Mato Grosso, a region that
has undergone considerable agricultural development since the early 1970s, land-cover dynamics
reflect a different trajectory, one that appears more
complex and dynamic than simply large-scale
farming and ranching. Moreover, looking at rates of
Cerrado loss suggests an intensification of land use;
land, which was allowed to regenerate previously,
is being renovated for continued cultivation or
pasture. Both of these findings require an investigation of the precise causes of land-use change at the
scale of individual land manager (McCracken et al.
1999; Perz and Walker 2002; Southworth and
Tucker 2001). For example, studies of fire as an
ecological transformation factor or a maintenance
tool and its role at different moments in the landcover change trajectory, may be better understood
at the landscape scale (Eva and Lambin 2000, 773).
This would focus consideration of land-cover
change on the decision-making processes behind
the patterns of regeneration, loss and fragmentation
at the landscape scale, rather than on vague
drivers of global capitalism (Klink et al. 1993;
WWF-Brasil 2000). Environmental policy prescriptions that follow from individual land-resource user
dynamics, those that capitalize on the preservation
of Cerrado fragments and regeneration, may offer
alternative conservation policies to current topdown, park-oriented efforts (Brannstrom 2001).
These may include productive conservation initiatives (Hall 1997), watershed management approaches
(Brannstrom 2001), and more effective incentives
for RPPNs (Lake 1999).
Finally, the presence of vegetation regeneration
calls into question the aggregate estimates of
Cerrado conversion or, perhaps, explains the divergent speculation reviewed in the introduction.
Between 1986 and 1999, the case study area has
experienced gross or aggregate vegetation loss,
which approaches the worst-case estimates of
Cerrado conversion. However, the observed landcover complexity illustrates significant processes of
vegetation regrowth which significantly changes
the net vegetation loss estimates.
The importance of quantifying the reversibility of
land covers, identifying complex trajectories, and
assessing the landscape fragmentation has important implications for broader global environmental
change concerns of ecological services, not just
biodiversity (Woodwell 2002). An accurate assessment of secondary vegetation growth better
specifies the contribution of Cerrado land conversion and agro-pastoral land uses to overall carbon
emissions and climate change (Henderson-Sellers
and McGuffie 1995), such as carbon sequestration
(Miranda and Miranda 2000; Vourlitis et al. 2001),
107
108
Acknowledgements
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