ISSN(Online) :

International Journal of Research in Computer Science

and Electronics Technology
Volume 1, Issue 1 November 2016
www.ijrcet.org

A Computational modeling of Epidemics using

Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased Model
Sonia Battan1, Lakshit Bakshi2
Student M.E, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, Walchand Institute of Technology, Solapur, India 1
Associate Professor, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, Walchand Institute of Technology, Solapur, India 2
Abstract: Epidemiology is typically a study of infectious disease and its outbreak among the defined population. It
considers various factors like transmission rate, infectious agent, infectious period and susceptibility to find the impact of
pathogens. The computational epidemiology is available to simulate the above said factors by considering the three basic
compartmental models viz., Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (SEI) and SusceptibleExposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR). Those models are not appropriate in case of mortality and fatality rate. In the
expanded version of SEIR model the additional compartment is added to make the epidemic transmission more completely.
With the expansion of basic compartmental models we added new compartments called X, denotes deceased population
with integration of fatality and mortality rate. Our Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRX) model can
give the complete inference and forecasting of epidemic transmission.
Keywords computational epidemiology, Susceptible-Exposed-Infected, forecasting of epidemics
I. INTRODUCTION
The raw data and comprehensive observational data are
not enough to forecast the outbreaks of epidemics. In order
to have more accurate and complete picture of
transmission dynamics inference of epidemics the
computational analysis can be used. Inference and
forecasts of the outbreak can be used to make required
arrangements of medicines and medical personnel. These
forecasts, made over following weeks can also be
compared with collected outcomes once they have come to
pass.

the herd immunity ratio and vaccination. The

mathematical models are presented with notations,
concepts, intuition and more refined models.
Spreading of the epidemics among a defined population
has been described by several types of computational
models either stochastic or deterministic. The application
of these models varies according to the kind of parameters
consider and computational methods.
The World Health Organization (WHO) observations
are considered and are compiled with computational
modeling and Bayesian inference to estimate the key
characteristics of epidemiology and inference mortality
levels and future case for the current Ebola outbreak in
West Africa. We collected data of epidemic outbreak of
Ebola for a week and used those collected data to assess
inference and forecasting model performance.

The mathematical modeling and Bayesian inference has

been developed in the area of infectious disease modeling
have enabled the assumption of key epidemiological
characteristics related with the historical disease
outbreaks. The deterministic and stochastic models were
employed for both model specification and observational
II. THE MODEL
error by providing a better estimate of system behavior
than simply analysis using the data or model alone.
A. The SIR Model
The Suspected-Infected-Recovered Model is used in
Mathematical models can be used to forecast epidemiology to figure out the amount of susceptible,
how pathogens progress, the current state, and expected infected, recovered people in a define population.
result. These models consider few basic assumptions and
mathematics
to
find factors for
various infectious Assumptions:
diseases and applies those factors to calculate the effects
The models can be defines as good when they considers
of possible interventions, like herd immunity and appropriate assumptions. The SIR model considers the
mass vaccination programmes.
basic and appropriate assumptions as follow:
There are three basic types of computational model are
available for infectious diseases which are spread by
among the defined population by person-to-person.

Parameters are estimated and categorized for the various

kinds of diseases. These parameters are used to identify

1) The population is to be fixed.

2) The person who leaves the susceptible group is to be
entered in infected group.
3) The additional parameters like Social status, Race,
Sex, Age, and race do not influence the probability of
being infected by the epidemics.

International Journal of Research in Computer Science and Electronics Technology,

November 2016, pp. 1-5

Parameters:
TABLE I
PARAMETERS AND ITS DESCRIPTION

Parameter/
Notation

Description

Number of susceptible individuals

I
R

Number of infected individuals

Number of recovered individuals
Probability of becoming infected by a
disease
Average number of transmissions
from an infected person in a time
period
Case called fatality rate

N
Z

Population size
Average time with which the person
becomes infected before exposed
Mean infectious period
Average time from symptom onset to
death

distribution with parameter , and also considering the

occurrences of vital dynamics with death rate equal birth
rate, we have the model:
dE (t)IS E
=
+
dt
N
Z
The total population is such a way give as
S(t) + E(t) + I(t) + R(t) = N

Fig. 2. The SEIR Model

C. Basic Reproductive Ratio

In addition with the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and

Recovered compartment, an important factor to be
considered is the Basic Reproductive Ratio, denoted as BR.
M
The Basic Reproductive Ratio is used to tell us if a
population is at risk from a disease. BR is affected by the
The basic factors considered in SIR model are susceptible, infection and removal rates, i.e. , k and is denoted by
infected and recovered individuals at time t, for total B = S . The three conditions of disease impact are
R k 0
population size N. The differential equation is given by:
When BR > 1, the occurrence of the disease will increase.
When BR = 1, the disease occurrence will be constant.
When BR < 1, the occurrence of the disease will decrease
dS
(t)IS
[1]
and the disease will eventually be eliminated.
=-
dt
N
The Basic Reproductive Ratio also predicts who will
not become infected totally. This is done by how the SIR
dI E (1-)I I
[2]
model behaves.
= dt Z
D
M
D. Herd Immunity Threshold
Herd immunity is a measure for the vaccination
dR (1-)I
[3]
=
requirement of person who have not had the disease to
dt
D
cause an epidemic. The Herd Immunity Threshold is a
measure which calculates percentage of the population
among the infectious that needs to be immune to control
The total population is such a way give as
further transmission of a disease. The equation given by
S(t) + I(t) + R(t) = N
Diekmann and Heesterbeek [4] for figuring out the Herd
Immunity Threshold is
D

Ht = 1-

1
BR

Fig. 1. The SIR Model

This can effectively stop the spread of disease in the

community.
As the amount of vaccinations increase, the
B. The SEIR Model
herd immunity threshold also increases. By decreasing the
Assumptions:
amount of susceptible people, the herd immunity threshold
The SEIR Model is used in to calculate the amount of decreases.
exposed in addition with susceptible, infected and
recovered people in a population. The assumptions made E. Effective Reproductive Number:
by the SEIR model are same like the SIR model.
The Effective Reproductive Number is helps
researchers and health officials to determine the
For many important infectious diseases there is a major effectiveness of their control measures on controlling the
incubation period during which the entity has been disease.
infected but is not yet infectious. During this period the
individual is considered as exposed. Assuming that the
incubation period as an arbitrary variable with exponential
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International Journal of Research in Computer Science and Electronics Technology,

November 2016, pp. 1-5

To calculate ERN, we multiply the basic reproductive

To find reflection of epidemics in a defined group or
ratio by the people who are susceptible at time t. It is village, R0(t) can be increased i.e., R0(t) R0Mean + 0.5
denoted as
R0Amp. Same way the implementation of interventions and
vaccinations the R0(t) can be decreased i.e., R0(t) R0Mean
St
- 0.5 R0Amp. The values of R0Mean, R0Amp can be applied to
ER = B R
find the R0(t) as the time sequence of these discrepancy
N
are unknown. This can be done by the stochastic
Where BR is Basic reproductive ration and St is number formulation.
of persons who are susceptible and N is the population
size.
Initially the outbreak of epidemics will be limited and
hence the Ebola epidemics appeared erratically. This
III. RELATED WORK
situation may lead report with errors. And also it may
reflect discrepancy in the swelling of outbreaks to the new
A. The SEIRX Model
regions. This can be eradicated by the stochastic models.
The past epidemic modeling studies of Ebola have used To conquer this issue SEIRX framework i.e., above
parameters like a person with Susceptible, Exposed, mentioned equations and stochastic formulation can be
Infected, Recovered (SEIR) model. Though the existing employed to produce the occurrence time similar to these
models are considering the above parameters, those were observations.
inappropriate and the transmission of epidemics was not
clear. To make the inference and forecasting dynamics of
Simulation of 300 members with the SEIRX model was
epidemics additional required compartments are used with the observations of WHO of weekly cumulative
considered to describe the Ebola transmission cycle more occurrences, case fatality rate, mortality and Ensemble
accurate and completely. For this attempt, we add a new Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF). To make the
compartment called, X, for the deceased population to observation to be smoothed the iterative simulation of
enter integration of fatality rate and mortality data in EAKF algorithm were employed. By adjusting the EAKF,
addition to incidence. The model is described by the the variables and R(t) can be explicitly varied within the
following equations:
SEIRX model system.
dS
(t)IS
=-
dt
N

[4]

dE (t)IS E
=
+
dt
N
Z

[5]

Table II and Table III shows the SEIRX of the instances

collected from WHO of Ebola epidemics. The analysis
starts with assumption that everyone being susceptible to
the disease and then one person among the defined
population suddenly becomes infected.
TABLE III
THE NUMBER OF CASES IN EACH STATE PER PERIOD FOR =0.65

dI E (1-)I I
= dt Z
D
M

[6]
Period

dR (1-)I
=
dt
D

[7]

dX I
=
dt M

[8]

Where, X is the deceased person with respect to time

and is the case fatality rate.

State
S

0
1

100
99

0
0

0
1

0
0

0
0

2
3
4
5
6
7

35
12
4
1
0
0

35
40
65
59
74
0

14
28
11
18
1
0

16
10
10
10
15
100

0
0
10
12
10
0

The stochastic variable for the transmission rate exerted

by the live person is defined as
(t) = (R0Mean + kR0Amp) / D
Where, R0Mean is a mean reproductive number. R0Amp is
the maximum amplitude with which the daily reproductive
number, R0(t) varies around R0Mean, and is a number
collected randomly from the uniform distribution of range
[-0.5, 0.5]

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International Journal of Research in Computer Science and Electronics Technology,

November 2016, pp. 1-5
TABLE IIIII
THE NUMBER OF CASES IN EACH STATE PER PERIOD FOR =0.85

V. EXPERIMENTS AND RESULTS

A. Effects of Infectious Rate

Period

State
S

100

1
2
3
4
5

99
15
0
0
0

0
68
87
0
0

0
7
0
2
0

0
0
11
94
95

1
10
2
4
5

To calculate the , we know that,

=

Sn -Sn+1
Sn In

TABLE IVV
THE DIFFERENT FOR EACH PERIOD AND THE AVERAGE =0.65

Period

Beta

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

0
0
0.646465
0.010268
0.028986
0.09375
0.333333
0

Average

0.1391

TABLE V
THE DIFFERENT FOR EACH PERIOD AND THE AVERAGE =0.85

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
Average

Beta
0
0
0.848485
0.010317
0.076923
0
0.155954

IV. THE EFFECTS OF INFECTIOUS RATE AND THE

AMOUNT OF INITIAL INFECTIOUS PERSONS
Calculation the infectious rate is very essential in
disease modeling. Ebolas infection rate lies between 6585%. This number affects how long it takes until everyone
that will get the disease, recovers from it and the amount
of people in the susceptible, infected, exposed and
recovered groups. The second set of graphs shows how the
people in the susceptible, infected, exposed and recovered
groups are by infectious rates. Controlling for initial
amount of people that are infected for our two cases
(=0.65 and =0.85).

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From Figure 1, the amount of susceptible people

decreases faster than that of a smaller alpha. From Figure
2, the recovered group of higher alpha increases soon than
that of a small alpha. From Figure 3, the population with
the higher alpha has a higher peak, than that of a smaller
alpha. From Figure 4, with the increase in the people who
are initially infected, the time it takes for the susceptible to
converge is less. From Figure 5, as we decrease the initial
amount of infected people, the peak is increased.
VI. CONCLUSION
The SIERX Model is used in the modeling of epidemic
outbreaks and its impacts by computing the amount of
people in a defined population that are susceptible,
infected, exposed, recovered or deceased at a given period
of time. The model is also simulated by researchers and
health representatives to predict medical needs that the
people required care for a certain disease during an
epidemic. From results calculated by the SIERX model
researchers health administrators can determine different
numbers which tells them whether the actions and safety
precautions are effective and it required any improvement.
We considered Ebola epidemic outbreak in West Africa as
a case to evaluate the working of SEIRX model.
Conversely, the SIERX model also has some
disadvantageous on some assumptions. They are the
population needs to mix homogeneously and the
population has to be fixed and. The model does not take
into account variation in the disease among people of
different sexes, races, or ages. The SIERX model is the
basis for other similar models.
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