ISSN(Online) :

International Journal of Research in Computer Science

and Electronics Technology
Volume 1, Issue 1 November 2016
www.ijrcet.org

A Comparative study on performance measures of

conventional crop yield prediction models with ANN
Shruti S. Gadgil 1, Prof. L. M. R. J. Lobo 2
Student, ECE, M.I.E.T. Kurukshetra University, India 1
Assistant Professor, M.I.E.T. Kurukshetra University, India 2
Abstract: Crop yield estimation is a crucial task for the agricultural people. Earlier prediction of crop yield reduces the
time and various resources. This paper aims to provide a model for the encroachment of crop yield estimation research
through a various systematic review of previous work done on the crop yield estimation models. The review results,
combined with other knowledge provide support for recommendations for future crop yield estimation research. In the
review result a special emphasis is given on the Artificial Neural Network Model, which uses inputs from seasonal and non
seasonal factors, combined with other knowledge to provide support for recommendations for Neural Network for future
crop yield estimation research. The outcome of this review results in the Artificial Network Model suits well for crop yield
estimations and also predicted that the ANN models give more accurate and precession result compared to the
conventional crop yield estimation models.
Keywords: ANN, Crop yield, Estimation models, Precision model
I. INTRODUCTION
A model is a schematic representation of the conception
of a system or an act of mimicry or a set of equations,
which represents the behavior of a system. [1] Also, a
model is A representation of an object, system or idea in
some form other than that of the entity itself. Its purpose
is usually to aid in explaining, understanding or improving
performance of a system. Crop simulation models in
general calculate or predict crop yield as a function of
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
vi)

Weather conditions
Soil conditions
Crop management scenarios
Water management
Fertilizer combinations
Influencing factors

a. Regression Models: These models express the

relationship between yield or yield components and
weather parameters. In these models relationships are
measured in a system using statistical techniques.
Example: Step down regressions, correlation, etc.
b. Agrometeorological Models: These models explain not
only the relationship between weather parameters and
yield, but also the mechanism of these models. These
models are based on physical selection.
c. Vegetation Models: These models estimate the exact
value of the yield or dependent variable. These models
also have defined coefficients.
d. Artificial Neural Network Model: A probability element
is attached to each output. For each set of inputs different
outputs are given along with probabilities. These models
define yield or state of dependent variable at a given rate.

Regression models are used to predict one variable from

one or more other variables. Regression models provide
the scientist with a powerful tool, allowing predictions
Fig. 1 Crop yield prediction
about past, present, or future events to be made with
information about past or present events. [2] The scientist
II. TYPES OF MODELS
employs these models either because it is less expensive in
Depending upon the purpose for which it is designed the terms of time and/or money to collect the information to
models are classified into different groups or types. Of make the predictions than to collect the information about
the event itself, or, more likely, because the event to be
them a few are:
predicted will occur in some future time.
A. Steps to construct a Regression Model

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November 2016, pp. 28-35

In order to construct a regression model, both the

information which is going to be used to make the
prediction and the information which is to be predicted
must be obtained from a sample of objects or individuals.
[3]The relationship between the two pieces of information
is then modeled with a linear transformation. Then in the
future, only the first information is necessary, and the
regression model is used to transform this information into
the predicted. In other words, it is necessary to have
information on both variables before the model can be
constructed.

C. Standard Error of Estimate

The standard error of estimate is a measure of error in
prediction. It is symbolized as sY.X, read as s sub Y dot X.
[7] The notation is used to mean the standard deviation of
Y given the value of X is known. The standard error of
estimate is defined by the formula

[4]A notational scheme is necessary to describe the

procedure:
Xi - variable used to predict, and is sometimes called the
independent variable.
Yi - observed value of the predicted variable, and is sometimes
called the dependent variable.
Y'i - predicted value of the dependent variable.

As such it may be thought of as the average deviation of

the predicted from the observed values of Y, except the
denominator is not N, but N-2, the degrees of freedom for
the regression procedure. One degree of freedom is lost for
each of the parameters estimated, a and b. Note that the
numerator is the same as in the least squares criterion.

The goal in the regression procedure is to create a

model where the predicted and observed values of the
variable to be predicted are as similar as possible. The
more similar these two values, the better the model.
B. The Model:
The situation using the regression model is analogous to
that of the interviewers, except instead of using
interviewers, predictions are made by performing a linear
transformation of the predictor variable. [5] Rather than
interviewers in the above example, the predicted value
The standard error of estimate is a standard deviation
would be obtained by a linear transformation of the score.
type of measure. Note the similarity of the definitional
The prediction takes the form
formula of the standard deviation of Y to the definitional
formula for the standard error of measurement.
where a and b are parameters in the regression model.

Two differences appear. First, the standard error of

measurement
divides the sum of squared deviations by N[6] The values of a and b in the linear model Y'i = a + b
2,
rather
than
N-1. Second, the standard error of
Xi are to be found which minimize the algebraic
measurement finds the sum of squared differences around
expression ( ) .
a predicted value of Y, rather than the mean.
The mathematician begins as follows:
(

( +

))

Take the first-order partial derivative of the last form of

the preceding expression with respect to b, set it equal to
zero, and solve for the value of b. This is the method that
mathematicians use to solve for minimum and maximum
values. Completing this task, the result becomes:

The similarity of the two measures may be resolved if

the standard deviation of Y is conceptualized as the error
around a predicted Y of Y'i = a. When the least-squares
criterion is applied to this model, the optimal value of a is
the mean of Y. In this case only one degree of freedom is
lost because only one parameter is estimated for the
regression model.

The standard error of estimate may be calculated from

the definitional formula given above. The computation is
difficult, however, because the entire table of differences
and squared differences must be calculated. Because the
numerator has already been found, the calculation for the
example data is relatively easy.

Using a similar procedure to find the value of a yields:

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November 2016, pp. 28-35

approach used by FAO in national food security systems.

The calculation of the standard error of estimate is

simplified by the following formula, called the
computational formula for the standard error of estimate.
The computation is easier because the statistical calculator
computed the correlation coefficient when finding a
regression line. The computational formula for the
standard error of estimate will always give the same result,
within rounding error, as the definitional formula. The
computational formula may look more complicated, but it
does not require the computation of the entire table of
differences between observed and predicted Y scores. The
computational formula is as follows:

Crop forecasting relies on computer programmes that

describe the plant-environment interactions in quantitative
terms. Such programmes are called "models", and they
attempt to simulate plant-weather-soil interactions. [9]
They need, therefore, information and data on the most
important factors that affect crop yields - the model inputs.
After passing "through" the model, the inputs are
converted to a number of outputs, such as maps of crop
conditions and yields.
The modelling approach is based on a continuous
monitoring of the cropping season, which determines a
cumulative water balance for each period of 10 days
("dekad") from planting to maturity.
It requires a preliminary investigation and collection of
various agronomic parameters, i.e. cultivars, length of
different growth stages, length of total growing period,
crop coefficients allowing estimates of crop water
requirements for each of the growth stages, soil water
holding capacity, effective rainfall and soil runoff.
This model could be considered as a combination of the
dynamic (water balance) and statistical (calibration of
yield function) approaches. In fact, at harvest time, the
sum of dekadal water stress suffered by the crop (the
Water Satisfaction Index), crop water consumption - the
most
important
parameter
of
[10]"actual
evapotranspiration" - and some other relevant variables are
combined into a forecast yield by a regression equation.

[8] The computational formula for the standard error of

estimate is most easily and accurately computed by
temporality storing the values for sY2 and r2 in the
calculator's memory and recalling them when needed.
Using this formula to calculate the standard error of
estimate with the example data produces the following
results

A. Rainfall and evapotranspiration

For crop forecasting, the impact of climate on crops is
always transformed into a certain loss of water, i.e.
"evaporation", which depends on the available water and
on available energy. In case of cropped surfaces, this
continuous loss in the form of vapour is called
"evapotranspiration" since water loss is due to the
combined evaporation from the soil and the transpiration
through plant surfaces.

For crops, it is important to evaluate maximum water

loss under certain climatic conditions and under unlimited
water availability at the root system level, i.e. the
"maximum evapotranspiration" (ETM). [11]For practical
purposes, the value of the "potential evapotranspiration"
(PET) is then calculated. This is an adjustment to climatic
Note that the result is the same as the result from the conditions of the average ETM values of cropped surfaces
application of the definitional formula, within rounding in an optimum development state and without any
physiological constraints.
error.
For each of the growth phases, actual water availability
The standard error of estimate is a measure of error in
prediction. The larger its value, the less well the regression is compared with the requirement (optimum). This point is
illustrated in the graph below which shows the distribution
model fits the data, and the worse the prediction.
over the cropping season for Niamey (Niger) of 1996
III. AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
rainfall as compared to average rainfall and the average
Crop forecasting is the art of predicting crop yields potential evapotranspiration (PET). A standard time
(tons/ha) and production before the harvest actually takes interval of 10 days (dekad) has been adopted in all data
place, typically a couple of months in advance. Several processing and analysis. Water availability exceeds
techniques can be used. What is described here is the demand only during a limited period of the year.

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International Journal of Research in Computer Science and Electronics Technology,

November 2016, pp. 28-35

B. Growing period and crop coefficient

Potential evapotranspiration is a climatic variable, i.e. it
is the [12]"water demand of the atmosphere", often
referred to as water "requirement" of a conventional crop.
Actual crops have different requirements, which are
related to crop development - early stages require little
water - and weather conditions (for example, dry and
windy conditions increase water requirement).

Water Satisfaction Index (WSI), which expresses

which percentage of the crop's water requirements
were actually met.

Basically, the water balance is the difference between the

effective amounts of rainfall received by the crop and the
amounts of water lost by the crop and soil due to
evaporation, transpiration and deep infiltration. The
amounts of water held by the soil and available to the crop
is also taken into account.

In order to estimate real crop water requirements, PET

values must be corrected. This correction brings us closer
to the ETM values for the different crop development
phases. In practice, PET values are transformed through
the use of a crop coefficient (Kc). Values of Kc higher
than 1.0 (i.e. ETM>PET) mean well developed crops,
while values of Kc lower than 1.0 (i.e. ETM<PET)
correspond to bare soils or a sparse crop.

In practice, the water balance is computed using a

bookkeeping approach. The computation is done dekadby-dekad (DEK), and starts before the planting in order to
take into account previous rainfall amounts stored into the
soil. From the planting dekad, the crop water requirements
(WR) are calculated as the potential evapotranspiration
(PET) times the crop coefficient (KCR) values. Thus, the
available water amount (AvW) is the difference between
As shown below crop water requirements grow slowly the crop water requirements and the working rainfall
at the beginning of the crop cycle (early vegetative phases) (WRK). Those amounts do not consider water stored by
but increase beyond PET at mid-cycle, to drop again when the soil. The working rainfall amount reflects the effective
the crop matures.
water received by crop and is calculated through a ratio
defined by the user on the basis of the type of soil, slope,
etc. Normal rainfall (NOR) is used in case of missing
values.
Surplus or deficit (S/D) result from the water budget
between the soil water storage (SW), ranging between the
field capacity and the permanent wilting point, depending
on the root depth, and the soil water holding capacity
(WHC). Finally, the water satisfaction Index summarizes,
up to a specific growth stage or the end of its
development, the degree to which cumulative crop water
requirements have been met. [13] The WSI represents, at
Fig.3: Crop coefficient
any time of the growing period, the ratio between the
The same information and analysis of rainfall and PET is actual and the potential evapotranspiration.
used in assessing general crop feasibility under specific D. Yield function
climatic conditions and to calculate the length of the crop
The yield function is a statistically derived function
growing period.
relating the water balance parameters (which constitute the
The graph below shows the average length of the growing outputs of the "agmet model") and the other factors (farm
and humid periods as calculated for Ouagadougou inputs, trend) or NDVI with station yield.
(Burkina Faso).

The yield function is valid for a crop and a group of

stations
in an homogeneous cropping area. The input data
C. Water budget
correspond to different geographical units, from weather
stations, to pixels (NDVI, CCD: 50 km2) to administrative
[12] The objective of the water balance model is to
units. It is an important step in the forecasting method to
convert raw observations of the atmospheric environment
convert the data to comparable units (area averaging),
into a set of parameters that are of direct importance to
usually administrative areas that are used by planners or
crop production. Those parameters include:
decision makers in the field of food security.

Actual Evapotranspiration" (ETA), which is the

Below is a very simple example of a yield function in
amount of water actually used by the crop excluding
an area where yields are mainly conditioned by limited
runoff
water supply, as is the case -by definition- in most semiarid areas of the world.
The amount of excess of water, which may damage
crops through waterlogging

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November 2016, pp. 28-35

parameters such as fertilizer, irrigation, and pesticide

application are tracked in test plots maintained by
researchers.

Fig.4: ETo Vs Yield

IV. VEGETATION MODEL

Achieving maximum crop yield at minimum cost is one
of the goals of agricultural production. Early detection and
management of problems associated with crop yield
indicators can help increase yield and subsequent profit.
Remote sensing and global positioning systems (GPS) can
be used to assess spatial variability in crop yield. Visible
red, green, and blue band and near-infrared (NIR) regions
of the electromagnetic spectrum have been used
successfully to monitor crop cover, crop health, soil
moisture, nitrogen stress, and crop yield.

However, these controlled conditions are not to

be expected under real farming scenarios. Senay et al.
obtained a very high coefficient of determination (0.99)
between non-discrete corn yield values (five classes) and
spectral information from the NIR band (800890 nm) of
an aerial image of a 9 ha field crop under controlled
condition. Plant et al. [9] obtained an R2 of 0.65 while
correlating cotton yield from a small research plot using
NDVI. However, in general, farmers crop fields are not
under controlled conditions. It is essential to develop
precision crop yield models using general field condition
and discrete crop yield information.
Therefore, this study attempted to develop a corn crop
yield estimation modeling technique by using spectral
information from the field. The models were developed
using crop spectral data over several years. This SSCM
precision agriculture study not only involves the widely
used NDVI analysis but also explores the advantages of
other vegetation indices including a green vegetation index
(GVI), a perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) and a soil
adjusted vegetation index (SAVI). NDVI [17,18] is
determined using the red (R) and near-infrared (NIR)
bands of a given image and is expressed as follows

More recently, aerial images have been widely used for

-
NDVI= ir r
(1)
crop yield prediction before harvest These images can
ir + r
provide high spatial cloud free information of the crops
spectral characteristics. Analysis of vegetation and
where r and ir are spectral reflectance from the R and
detection of changes in vegetation patterns are important
NIR band images, respectively. The green vegetation
for natural resource management and monitoring, such as
index(GVI) was determined using:
crop vigor analysis [14]. Healthy crops are characterized
by strong absorption of red energy and strong reflectance
ir - g
GVI=
(2)
of NIR energy.
+
ir

The strong contrast of absorption and scattering of the

red and near-infrared bands can be combined into different
quantitative indices of vegetation conditions. These
mathematical quantitative combinations are known as
vegetation indices. Since the late 1980s, numerous studies
like Funk and Budde have been conducted on crop growth
analysis using normalized difference vegetation index
(NDVI) to support precision agriculture. Presently, sitespecific crop management (SSCM), an important
component of precision agriculture is being pursued
vigorously to increase production, which involves five
main processes of spatial referencing, crop and climate
monitoring, attribute mapping, decision support systems,
and differential action.

where r and ir are spectral reflectance from the G and

NIR band images.
The BPNN model performs were evaluated based on
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), prediction accuracy,
and standard error of prediction (SEP). Moreover, the
correlation coffecient (r) between the actual and predicted
output along with the slope and intercept of liner
regression model was used, The equation for RMSE is
given by
=

(3)

Gopalapillai and Tian obtained correlation coefficients

Where n is the number of observation, p is the number
ranging from 0.13 to 0.98 for predicting corn yield from a
of parameter to be estimated and SSE and MSE are the
study in 9 different fields and in two different years. They
sum of squared error and the mean square error,
used aerial images of the corn plots with agriculturally
respectively.
controlled conditions and computed NDVI to model yield.
The average correlation coefficient (r) between the NDVI
and the yield from all the nine fields was 0.54. In the
agriculturally controlled conditions, crop production

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November 2016, pp. 28-35

(4)

100

in which: Ya/Ym is the relationship between the actual

where N is the total number of observations and OPA yield and a possible maximum, for the location and chosen
and OPP are actual and predicted output respectively.
crop; ETai/ETmi is the relationship between the actual
evapotranspiration and that occurred without water
The predicted and actual output of regression analysis restrictions in the stage i; li the relative sensitivity
was done using the following linear equation:
coefficient of the crop for water stress during the stage i;
and (ii) Stewart et al. (1977):
=
+
where X and Y are predicted and actual output,
respectively, is slope and a is the intercept.

in which ETa/ETm is the relationship between the

The SEP of the predictive model is calculated by using
actual evapotranspiration and that occurred without water
the following equation:
restrictions for the complete cycle of the crop and b the
crop sensitivity constant for water stress.
[( )
]
[16] One problem with these models, already empirical
=
1
at the forecast level, is that they cannot be extrapolated.
They must only be used in conditions similar to those in
which they were generated.
where dm is the mean of the difference between actual
and predicted values Y and X respectively.
In contrast, mechanistic models try to represent
processes in the system up to two organization levels
V. EMPRICAL MODEL
below the forecast level. A mechanistic model to forecast
A model that simulates crop yield can be mechanistic at crop yield will represent the processes at organ level, like
one level, if it represents the relations between all plant photosynthesis, respiration, and foliar expansion and
processes, but it will sure be empirical at some lower abscission, only being empirical down to this level.
level, such as the variation in gross photosynthetic rate
according to the temperature.
[17] At the photosynthesis organization level, for
example, the model stops being mechanistic and becomes
An empirical model at the prediction level can be found empirical, because the equation that represents the
in Waggoner (1984), in which wheat yield in a given year photosynthesis for leaf area does not represent a
and place is calculated in function of meteorological correlation between variables.
variables, such as temperature, precipitation and number
of days warmer than 32C, in a simple equation, without
One is still learning how to develop and create
representing the plant processes, by just varying the mechanistic models and, nowadays, the empirical models
constants of the equation (weights of each variable) at the forecast level are still the most popular. However,
according to the location.
the mechanistic models have a much larger potential to
allow extrapolation in the forecasts outside the boundaries
[15] An empirical model at the organ level can be in which they were generated (Chanter, 1981). Their
found in Teruel (1995), in which the sugar-cane leaf area superiority as simulation models is gradually being
index is calculated by an exponential-potential equation, recognized.
the only variable being the Growing Degree Days (GDD)
VI. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL
accumulated from planting, varying the constants in
function of the cultivation cycle:
Achieving maximum crop yield at minimum cost is one
of the goals of agricultural production. Early detection and
management of problems associated with
crop yield
(
indicators can help increase yield and subsequent
profit.
1)
where LAIn refers to the leaf area index, GDDi to
degree-days (C.day), and a, b and c are the fitting
constants.
Two classic ways of calculating the decrease in
yield in function of water stress are empiric equations:
(i) Jensen (1968):

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[18] By influencing regional weather patterns, largescale meteorological phenomena can have a significant
impact on agricultural production. Predictions could be
used by crop managers to minimize losses when
unfavourable conditions may occur.
Using ANNs can find the most effective factors on crop
yield. Therefore some factors that their measurements are
6

International Journal of Research in Computer Science and Electronics Technology,

November 2016, pp. 28-35

difficult and cost effective can be ignored. To handle such feedback links i.e., the output of a neuron is fed back into
a situation, an extremely versatile approach of Artificial itself as input.
neural networks (ANNs) is developing rapidly.

Fig.5: Neural Network Model

Fig.7: A recurrent neural network model

B. Performance measures
Given an appropriate notational convention, below
The performance of different models is evaluated based
figure gives diagrammatic representation of multiple liner
on the criteria of the root mean square errors (RMSE) and
regression model
square value of coefficient of These two statistical
parameters used for the performance evaluation are given
=
+
as follows:
where w0 is the weighted input, wj is weighted output
and xj is the initial input.
A. Neural network architectures
[19] An ANN is defined as a data processing system
consisting of a large number of simple highly inter
connected processing elements in an architecture inspired
by the structure of the cerebral cortex of the brain. There
are several types of architecture of NNs. However, the two
most widely used NNs are:
where Yp and Ye represent PM method and
temperature-based models ETo estimated for the ith
values; Ye and Yp represent the average values of the
In a feedforward network, information flows in one corresponding variable; and N represents the number of
direction along connecting pathways from the input layer observations.
via the hidden layers to the final output layer. There is no
feedback i.e., the output of any layer does not affect that
[21] Additionally, a single linear regression (y=b0+b1x)
same or preceding layer.
was accomplished for each estimation, by considering the
i. Feed forward networks:

ETo values from PM and alternative methods as the

independent variable and the dependent variable
respectively. The results were analyzed by using the
coefficients (b0 , b1, and r2) of the equations.
VII. ANALYSIS
The analysis of conventional and artificial neural
network is considered based on the input parameters
considered, technique used, accuracy, error measures,
prediction class, methodology, etc.,
Fig. 6: A multi-layer feed forward neural network

ii. Recurrent networks:

These networks differ from feed forward network
architectures in the sense that there is atleast one feedback
loop. Thus in these networks, for example, there could
exist one layer with feedback connections as shown in
figure below. [20] There could also be neurons with self Copyright to IJRCET

Each model considers different types of inputs based on

its functionality. This decides the outcome of each model.
i) Distinguished variety of crop
ii) More accuracy
iii) Less manpower and material required to collect
data

International Journal of Research in Computer Science and Electronics Technology,

November 2016, pp. 28-35

iv)
v)
vi)
vii)

Time consuming is low

Less financial resources required
Maturity level of the model is high
Suitable for prediction for large region
VIII. CONCLUSION

[14]. Mall, R.K. 1996. Some agrometeorological aspects of wheat crop

and development of yield forecast models. Ph.D thesis
(unpublished), Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India.
[15]. Murthy, V.R.K. 1999. Studies on the influence of macro and micro
meteorological factors on growth and yield of soybean. Unpublished
Ph.D thesis submitted to ANGRAU, Hyderabad, India.
[16]. Murthy, V.R.K. 2002. Basic principles of Agricultural Meteorology.
Book syndicate publishers, Koti, Hyderabad, India.

This paper has presented an overview of various crop

yield estimation techniques, providing an over of several
popular estimation models currently available. The[17].
important lesson to take from this paper is that the ANN
model should be preferred over all others. Each model is
suitable for some specific conditions. One must investigate[18].
the find out which model is ideally suitable for the
particular situation. However, ANN model have shown
superiority over the other models. Moreover it can be[19].
trained on the inputs that are used by other models. With
time, as the data set augmented, the accuracy of the ANN
model also increases.

Ong, H.T. 1982. System approach to climatology of oil palm. 1.

Identification of rainfall and dry spell aspects 2. Identification of
temperature and sunshine. Oleagineux 37, 93,-443.
Rumelhart, D.E., Hinton, G.E., Williams, R.J., 1986. Learning
internal representation by back-propagation errors. MIT Press,
Cambridge, MA.
Werbos, P.J., 1974. Beyond regression: New tools for prediction and
analysis in the behavioural sciences. Ph.D. Dissertation, Harvard
University, Cambridge, MA.

[20]. Zhang, G., Patuwo, B.E., Hu, M.Y., 1998. Forecasting with artificial
neural networks: The state of the art. International Journal of
Forecasting, 14, 35-62.

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