Indian Power System Load Factor Analysis

Electricity Load Factor
in
Indian Power System
Power System Operation Corporation Ltd.

January 2016
Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System
Table of Contents
List of Figures............................................................................................................................... 4
List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ 4
Message from Sh A S Bakshi, Member, CERC ........................................................................... 5

Message from Sh Major Singh, Chairperson, CEA ..................................................................... 6
Message from Dr K Ramalingam, Chairman, R&D Committee ................................................. 7
Acknowledgement ................................................................................................................................. 8
1.
Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 9
2.
Understanding Load Curve.................................................................................................... 10
3.
Classification of Load Factors ............................................................................................... 11
4.
Significance of Load Factor ................................................................................................... 11
5.
Factors affecting Load Factor ................................................................................................ 12
6.
Demand Diversity.................................................................................................................... 13
7.
Analysis of Load Factor Patterns .......................................................................................... 15
8.
Load Factor as per 18th Electric Power Survey (EPS) report of CEA .............................. 19
9.
International Experience on Load Factor............................................................................. 20
10.
Load Factor in other Industries ......................................................................................... 22
11.
Data Source and Assumption ............................................................................................. 22
12.
Seasonal Decomposition ..................................................................................................... 23
13.
Way Forward ...................................................................................................................... 24
14.
Research Team .................................................................................................................... 24
15.
All India, Region wise and State wise Analysis ................................................................ 25
15.1.
ALL INDIA...................................................................................................................... 25
15.2.
NORTHERN REGION .................................................................................................. 27
15.3.
WESTERN REGION ..................................................................................................... 29
15.4.
SOUTHERN REGION ................................................................................................... 31
15.5.
EASTERN REGION....................................................................................................... 33
15.6.
NORTH-EASTERN REGION....................................................................................... 35
Page 2 of 100
15.7.
DELHI .............................................................................................................................. 37
15.8.
HARYANA ...................................................................................................................... 39
15.9.
CHANDIGARH .............................................................................................................. 41
15.10.
HIMACHAL PRADESH ................................................................................................ 43
15.11.
JAMMU & KASHMIR .................................................................................................. 45
15.12.
PUNJAB ........................................................................................................................... 47
15.13.
RAJASTHAN .................................................................................................................. 49
15.14.
UTTAR PRADESH......................................................................................................... 51
15.15.
UTTARAKHAND ........................................................................................................... 53
15.16.
CHATTISGARH ............................................................................................................. 55
15.17.
GUJARAT ....................................................................................................................... 57
15.18.
GOA ................................................................................................................................. 59
15.19.
MADHYA PRADESH .................................................................................................... 61
15.20.
MAHARASHTRA .......................................................................................................... 63
15.21.
ANDHRA PRADESH ..................................................................................................... 65
15.22.
KARNATAKA ................................................................................................................ 67
15.23.
KERALA ......................................................................................................................... 69
15.24.
PONDICHERRY ............................................................................................................ 71
15.25.
TAMIL NADU................................................................................................................. 73
15.26.
BIHAR ............................................................................................................................. 75
15.27.
DVC .................................................................................................................................. 77
15.28.
JHARKHAND ................................................................................................................. 79
15.29.
ODHISA ........................................................................................................................... 81
15.30.
WEST BENGAL ............................................................................................................. 83
15.31.
ARUNACHAL PRADESH............................................................................................. 85
15.32.
ASSAM............................................................................................................................. 87
15.33.
MANIPUR ....................................................................................................................... 89
15.34.
MEGHALAYA ................................................................................................................ 91
15.35.
MIZORAM ...................................................................................................................... 93
15.36.
NAGALAND ................................................................................................................... 95
15.37.
TRIPURA ........................................................................................................................ 97
16.
References ............................................................................................................................ 99
Page 3 of 100
List of Figures
Figure 1: All India Daily Load Factor Patterns for the Period 2008-15....................................... 9
Figure 2: Typical All India Load Curve .................................................................................... 10
Figure 3: Seasonal Behaviour of All India Load Factor ............................................................ 12
Figure 4: Trend of All India Diversity Factor based on SCADA data ....................................... 14
Figure 5: Relationship of Load Factor with overall electricity cost ........................................... 21
List of Tables
Table 1: Typical Load Factor of different types of load ............................................................ 13
Table 2: All India/Regional Yearly Diveristy Factor ................................................................. 14
Table 3: Regional/All India Load Factor Pattern ...................................................................... 15
Table 4: State wise Load Factor Pattern ................................................................................... 16
Table 5: Annual Load Factor Pattern (Based on CEA Monthly report data ............................. 17
Table 6: State wise Annual Load Factor Pattern (Based on CEA monthly report data) ............ 18
Table 7: All India/Regional Load Factor Pattern (As per 18th EPS)......................................... 19
Table 8: Comparison of anticipated and actual load factor ....................................................... 19
Table 9: Load Factor trend of European Countries .................................................................. 20
Table 10: Load Factor of other countries .................................................................................. 21
Page 4 of 100
Message from Sh A S Bakshi, Member, CERC

India Power Sector has experienced drastic changes in the last decade,
consequent upon enactment of the Electricity Act 2003. There has been
a major shift in policy and regulatory mechanism, and this has
catalyzed major reforms. The sector has seen exponential growth
which has had a direct correlation with Indias economic growth. The
ripple effects of any changes in the sector have far reaching
consequences and impact all other spheres of economy. Regulatory
process is not only for regulating various existing players in the sector but also is essential
in determining the future trajectory and course of development of the sector. Given this
increasing complexity, regulatory oversight has become a vital component to harmonies
interests of consumers. Regulatory process has become intensely technical given the gravity
of the process and impact of decision taken, it is essential to consider all parameters such as
Load Factor of the power system as a whole that affects the system.
The report on Load Factor is informative and educative and provides in depth view to an
extremely important metric. The level of research and analysis in the report is truly
commendable and officers of POSOCO involved in this research paper need to be
complemented for their efforts. Research like this gives insight into the Power system and
helps deepen their technical understanding of Grid behaviour, consumer expectation and the
future requirements to improve the network efficacy and performance while ensuring the
development objectives are met.
I hope there would be series of such reports and wish POSOCO all the best in their applied
research endeavours.
(A.S. BAKSHI)
Page 5 of 100
Message from Sh Major Singh, Chairperson, CEA
Electricity Planning is evolving and becoming more complex. Given the

vastness of Indian grid, it is now exponentially more challenging than it
was a decade ago. Electricity planning is growing ambitious in its
scope, the focus, thus, has to be on expanding capacity and developing
the network but also on doing so with utmost precision and focus,
ensuring that public interest are of primary consideration. Power Sector
needs a multi-disciplinary approach to planning and implementation. It
needs to combine the best of technology and social-sciences. Technology has made it
convenient to generate data with an astounding degree of flexibility; data is now almost a
visual device.
We can have a macro and micro view, go in-depth or have a comprehensive view from the
top. Technology and data have put these tools at disposal of planners and practitioners both.
So many different matrixes can now be developed to gain better understanding of the system.
Load Factor is a parameter of utmost importance; it can help in rightly choosing the type of
generation as also in network planning having a considerable impact on economics in the
sector.
I am happy to see this comprehensive report and such detailed analysis of load factor in the
country and the international benchmarks. I hope that we see several such reports in the
future and are able to use numbers in the decision making process.
(MAJOR SINGH)
Page 6 of 100
Message from Dr K Ramalingam, Chairman, R&D Committee

Independent Director, POSOCO
Power Sector in general and Power System in particular is

increasingly more complex due to growing number of inter
connections and density of the network. There have been several
developments in Power System Technology and new innovations are
being explored. The rate of change of these developments and
innovations is stupendous. Capability Enhancement in Research and
Development in Power Sector is essential to ensure the entire sector
progresses as a whole. We need investment both in research and in its
application to ensure the sector is benefitted. Tools and technology have enabled several new
research topics in the sector. We need to ensure that we use these to their full potential and
explore all possible research avenues. Research topics such as this will bridge the gap
between academia and practitioners and will result in innovative solutions that are
implementable and benefit the end consumer and help in furthering development goals.
Load factor is essential in our holistic understanding of the Power System. It can be an
important metric that can be vital in System Operation, Planning and long-term strategy in
the sector. I am happy to see this effort, the first of its kind, to analyse and understand Load
Factor pattern and behaviour. Hopefully, this report is first of many that will help us in
further research and innovation in the sector and gain better understanding of the present
scenario.
(Dr K Ramalingam)
Page 7 of 100
Acknowledgement
The bulk electric power system in India is growing exponentially and the Indian Power
Grid since 31st December 2013 is one of the largest synchronous grids in the world.
Today we are at the crossroads. Two events are happening simultaneously. First the
country is experiencing high growth rate in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 24*7
power supply is a thrust area and power shortages are expected to be a thing of the past.
This coupled with an increase in standard of living would have a significant impact on the
load curve in the coming years. Secondly, there is a thrust on Renewable Energy (RE)
integration with 175 GW capacity by 2022. Such high levels of RE penetration calls for
improved RE forecasts in the coming year.
This report is an attempt to look at the first aspect viz. load curves through analysis of
time series data archived at National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) since 2008. The
focus is on the trends in load factor state-wise, region-wise & country-wise since 2008.
On behalf of the team, I would like to thank all concerned for the support and guidance in
preparation of this report. The team would also like to acknowledge the inspiration
provided by Joint Secretary (Transmission), Ministry of Power, Ms Jyoti Arora in
harnessing useful information from the big archive of data available with POSOCO. The
team also acknowledges the valuable guidance and constant motivation provided by Dr K
Ramalingam, Head, R&D Committee, POSOCO during the preparation of this report.
The team would also like to thank Shri A Raja Rao (Retired Executive Director, BHEL)
Shri Major Singh, Chairperson, CEA and Shri A S Bakshi, Member, CERC for peer
reviewing this report and providing valuable feedback to make this report more
informative.
S K Soonee
Chief Executive Officer
POSOCO
Page 8 of 100
1. Introduction
The change in electricity consumption is affected by economic development, demographics,
weather, industrial restructuring and energy policy etc. Load factor is an important index of
electrical energy use and depend upon the energy consumed during a specific time period and
peak demand during that period. It is an indicator of steadiness of electrical load.
By definition Load Factor is the ratio between average energy consumption rate (average
load) and peak energy consumption rate (peak load) over a specified period of time and can
apply to daily, monthly, seasonal or annual periods.
Load Factor = Energy Used (in kWh) / (Maximum Demand (in kW) *Time (hours in the period))
There are many other factors such as capacity factor, demand factor, availability factor,
diversity factor, utilization factor which defines the pattern of load. Each of these factors has
its own nuances and must be studied separately to understand its impact on load.
The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) in its Electric Power Survey (EPS) report defines the
Annual Electric Load Factor as the ratio of the energy availability in the system to the energy
that would have been required during the year if the annual peak load met was incident on the
system throughout the year. This factor depends on the pattern of utilization of different
categories of load. The Annual Electric Load factor in India has remained close to 80% since
2000-01, primarily because of prevailing shortages in the system and the load staggering
measures adopted in the various states particularly staggered three phase supply to agriculture
in groups.
The All India Daily load factor pattern for the period 2008-15 is shown below:
Figure 1: All India Daily Load Factor Pattern for the Period 2008-15
Data beats emotions. Sean Rad
Page 9 of 100
The load factor of 100% would imply constant load throughout the day which means
maximum utilisation of assets. However, considering the natural characteristics of electricity
consumption which changes with time, load factor is always less than 100% unless it is made
100% by human intervention. This intervention could be either in the form of load shedding
or load staggering. Load factor above 75% is a reasonably good value whereas load factor
below 50% might be undesirable. Intervention in terms of demand management would be
required to improve the load factor and reduce the overall cost of service. Academically three
possible solutions to improve load factor have been proposed, the first is load shedding; this
is an undesired and a short-term solution that is detrimental to consumers interest. The
second is increasing capacities of electricity networks to handle peak load. However, the
utilities investment is only justified if the revenue in the peak period
offsets the times when the network operates at below peak levels during the off-peak periods.
The third is Demand Side Management and Time of Use (ToU), this aims at consumer
behaviour adjustment by offering discounted rates for off-peak consumption.
The study of Load Factor is important to determine the actual cost of peak load, assuming
that there is merit order scheduling without time restrictions, the peak load generation is the
most expensive. Load Factor serves as price signal, it incentivises price differentiation.
2. Understanding Load Curve

Load curve is a graphical representation of load along with the time. The load curve may vary
depending upon the customer types (For example residential, commercial and industrial),
temperature and holiday seasons. Understanding of load curve is important to understand the
load factor. Typical load curve of India is given below:
Evening Peak
Morning Peak
Day Lean
Night Lean
Figure 2: Typical All India Load Curve
"Data is the new science. Big Data holds the answers." - Pat Gelsinger
Page 10 of 100
A typical load curve has four important cardinal points:

1.
2.
3.
4.
Night Lean
Morning Peak
Day Lean or Afternoon trough
Evening Peak
Domestic load gradually picks up after sunrise with switching in of electrical appliances.
Gradually the commercial/office load picks up and domestic load goes down. The domestic
load primarily lighting load again picks up after sunset. This gives rise to evening peak.
During this time commercial/office load also starts to come down. Thereafter, domestic load
also starts to come down and goes to minimum level during night hours. The above typical
load curve can be changed by human interventions such as load shedding, demand
management, chipping the hills and filling the valleys of load curve.
3. Classification of Load Factors

Load factor can be calculated on a daily, monthly or annual basis. For the purpose of this
analysis three types of load factors have been calculated i.e. daily, monthly and yearly.
Daily Load Factor =

Monthly Load Factor =
Annual Load Factor =
Daily Average Load

Daily Maximum Load
Monthly Average Load
Monthly Maximum Load
Annual Average Load
Annual Maximum Load
4. Significance of Load Factor

Load factor is an important parameter in the power system and knowledge of the same is
important for generation and transmission planning, portfolio management by utilities, future
investments and electricity pricing. The system utilization is better if the load factor is high
i.e. the average load is near to peak load. The significance of load factor is as follows:
i. Load factor plays an important part in the cost of the supply of electrical
energy. Higher the value of load factor, lower will be the overall cost per unit. The
work of Rushdi (1991) related to Australian Energy Market concludes that a 1%
increase in load factor reduces the cost by 0.35%
ii. A lower load factor implies sharp peaks and requires investment in peaking
generation. Higher load factor implies constant power consumption which requires
investment in baseload generation.
"You can have data without information, but you cannot have information without data."
- Daniel Keys Moran
Page 11 of 100
iii.
The planning of transmission/distribution is done based on peak demand. A lower

load factor would lead to higher investment in transmission/distribution and lower
utilization of transmission/distribution assets.
Further, load factors are also being used in forecasting exercises to convert energy
consumption figures (kWh/MWh) into peak load figures (KW/MW) so that investment in
generation, transmission and distribution which are based on peak demand can be
determined. Utilities typically forecast energy consumption based on historical, weather,
economic and other data and convert the same peak load figures using the load factor.
5. Factors affecting Load Factor

5.1. Weather Conditions: Load Factor is dependent on the weather conditions.
High/Low temperature throughout the day would require more use of weather
beating electrical appliances throughout the day leading to high load factor. Similarly
sudden load crash due to thunderstorm/rain would lead to low demand for some part
of the day and hence low load factor. This factor is dominant especially in case of
Northern Region States. A typical load factor curve of India is shown below which
shows the seasonal behaviour.
Good Monsoon
Monsoon Failure
Figure 3: Seasonal Behaviour of All India Load Factor
"Data are becoming the new raw material of business." Craig Mundie
Page 12 of 100
5.2. Nature of Load: Nature of Load also affects the load factor of each state. A state
with high domestic load with no load shedding would show low load factor whereas
a state with high industrial load with no load shedding would show high load factor.
Some typical load factor of different type of load is given below:
Type of Load
Domestic Load
Commercial Load
Industrial Load
Traction Load
Typical Load Factor (%)

50-60
20-30
60-80
20-30
Table 1: Typical Load Factor of different types of load
A state with high percentage of a particular type of load would have load factor close
to the typical load factor of that category. For example, Uttarakhand has high
percentage of industrial load and shows load factor in the range of 50%-70% in last
few years. In contrary, DD & DNH have high industrial load and hence shows load
factor in the range of 70%-90%
5.3. Demand Side Management: Demand side management policies adopted by states
also impact the load factor. A state with large load shedding would exhibit high load
factor. Further, a state which has shifted the peak load to off peak times would also
exhibit high load factor.
5.4. Demand Elasticity: Load factor is also dependent on the demand elasticity. High
prices during peak hour would lead to reduction in peak load and improvement in
load factor. A continuous price signal to the price sensitive load would lead to
shifting of load from high price time to low price time. This would further improve
the load factor. A high load factor would make electricity cheaper, but a low load
factor is based on human behavior.
6. Demand Diversity
The load is time dependent as well as being dependent upon equipment characteristics.
The diversity factor recognizes that the whole load does not equal the sum of its parts due
to this time interdependence. When the maximum demand of a supply is being assessed it
is not sufficient to simply add together the ratings of all electrical equipment that could be
connected to that supply. If this is done, a figure somewhat higher than the true maximum
demand will be produced. This is because it is unlikely that all the electrical equipment on
a supply will be used simultaneously. This is the first level of diversity viz a consumer
will not use each wall socket at his home at the same time. The same when extended to an
apartment complex, a residential colony, a city, a state, a region and the entire country
"Data matures like wine, applications like fish." James Governor
Page 13 of 100
indicates the power of diversity. The concept of being able to de-rate a potential
maximum load to an actual maximum demand is known as the diversity factor. Diversity
factor is usually more than one.
Diversity Factor = (Sum of Individual Max. Demand)
(Simultaneous Max. Demand)
Greater the diversity factor, lesser is the cost of generation of power. If everything (all
electrical equipment) is running at full load at the same time the diversity factor is equal
to one.
The diversity in daily All India demand met is given below:
Figure 4: Trend of All India Diversity Factor based on SCADA data
Year
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
NR
1.08
1.07
1.07
1.06
1.07
1.04
WR
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.05
1.02
1.03
SR
1.06
1.06
1.04
1.03
1.02
1.03
ER
1.02
1.06
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.02
NER
1.03
1.05
1.04
1.03
1.02
1.03
All India
1.06
1.07
1.07
1.05
1.06
1.05
Table 2: All India/Regional Yearly Diversity Factor
The diversity factor is an important indicator of variation of maximum load across different
parts of the country. Interconnection of grids helps in harnessing this diversity and improving
the load factor of the country.
Diversity in minimum load is also important. The simultaneous minimum All India demand
would be much higher than the sum of individual minimum demand of different states on
account of diversity. The diversity factor for minimum loads can also be computed in similar
manner which would always be less than one.
"Im sure, the highest capacity of storage device, will not be enough to record all our stories;
because, every time with you is very valuable data." Aditia Rinaldi
Page 14 of 100
7. Analysis of Load Factor Patterns

The analysis presented in this report is based on the NLDC SCADA data and the energy data
provided by each state for the daily report. The various assumptions considered during the
analysis are given in subsequent sections. The Region wise Average Daily Load Factor,
Monthly Load Factor and Annual Load Factor during the period 2008-15 is given below:
All figures are in percentage
Region/
Year
ALL
INDIA
WR
SR
NR
ER
NER
Daily Inc. /
Avg. Dec.*
92
92
92
91
86
74
Acc. /
Dec. #
Monthly
Average 08 09
88
84
Annual Load Factor

09 10 - 11- 121310
11
12
13
14
84
81
84
86
81 79
74
81
87
81 78
77
84
86
79 82
81
78
80
76 77
77
76
68
62 62
64
64
Table 3: Regional/All India Load Factor Pattern
1415
85
85
86
82
83
78
78
65
79
79
77
77
63
79
81
76
76
63
Observations with regard to the Regional/All India load factor pattern are as follows:
7.1. All India annual load factor has remained constant between 84-86%. This high load
factor is due to a combination of benefits derived out of the integration of regional
grids and load shedding done by different states due to power shortages. It is constant
over the years because the growth of energy and peak demand has been around the
same range. Daily load factor variation between summer and winter is about 3-4%.
7.2. Northern Region annual load factor has a decreasing trend i.e. 82% in year 2009-10
to 76% in year 2014-15 which could be on account of better availability of power.
Also variation in daily load factor of Northern Region between summer and winter is
about 10-12% which shows impact of weather sensitive loads and agriculture loads
within the region.
7.3. Western Region annual load factor has a decreasing trend i.e. 81% in year 2008-09 to
79% in year 2014-15. Also variation in daily load factor between seasons through-out
the year is about 8-10%. Western Region has industrial and agriculture load.
7.4. Southern Region annual load factor is between 77-84%. It has decreased over the last
three years. Also variation in daily load factor between seasons through-out the year
is about 5-6%. There is no appreciable seasonal pattern.
7.5. Eastern Region annual load factor has remained constant between 76-77%. Also
variation in daily load factor is about 12-15% (varies between 78-92%).
7.6. North-Eastern Region annual load factor remained constant between 63-64%. Also
variation in daily load factor is about 17-20% (varies between 65-85%). Daily Load
factor is Maximum in April-May.
"The data fabric is the next middleware." Todd Papaioannou
Page 15 of 100
The summary of load factor pattern of each state is given below:

Annual Load Factor&
0809
0910
1011
1112
1213
1314
1415
1516
Monthly
Load
Factor
Avg. of
2008-15
Andhra
Pradesh
Arunachal
Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chandigarh
Chhattisgarh
Delhi
DVC
Goa
Gujrat
Haryana
Himachal
Pradesh
Jammu
Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya
Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
74
75
71
79
79
75
81
79
85
91
51
47
47
48
58
50
53
47
59
69
59
66
57
60
64
76
66
81
62
58
57
73
55
62
61
79
68
80
64
51
63
66
55
68
62
77
64
74
64
57
62
68
59
70
61
72
63
78
64
58
61
68
53
71
59
75
72
78
63
54
60
71
55
71
59
79
74
75
60
66
67
69
51
71
56
81
63
78
58
63
63
73
58
76
66
46
40
79
63
62
66
77
68
76
72
81
71
84
73
72
73
85
79
84
81
89
84
91
82
81
62
70
66
63
67
66
65
70
74
81
63
66
63
60
59
66
64
66
63
63
63
52
65
71
63
57
67
74
68
58
67
71
64
60
71
72
68
61
16
70
68
65
71
79
70
74
83
86
75
82
78
56
62
53
76
51
59
51
64
52
58
51
79
47
62
45
77
49
58
52
73
52
55
46
74
56
54
55
79
53
52
52
82
57
65
59
90
63
74
66
Nagaland
Odisha
Pondicherry
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamilnadu
Tripura
Uttar
Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
48
72
71
57
69
76
50
75
52
63
74
62
68
78
48
78
54
61
74
62
70
80
48
75
59
65
72
60
73
79
52
74
58
67
76
58
71
77
58
71
57
66
65
61
69
81
50
73
56
72
72
55
71
80
53
77
54
21
62
61
70
82
52
75
60
73
78
77
80
84
58
81
68
82
86
87
89
91
66
89
62
67
53
51
57
64
67
60
69
70
64
70
68
68
68
71
72
74
Table 4: State wise Load Factor Pattern
81
80
Sl Name of
No State
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Daily Load Factor
Avg. of
2008-15
Inc. /
Dec.*
"The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight." Carly Fiorina
Page 16 of 100
Acc. /
Dec. #
Note:
1. '*' : Sign of slope (m) of linear equation "y=mx+c" has been used to indicate the
arrow direction. In case of positive slope it is shown as "" and for negative slope it
has been shown as "".
2. '#' : Sign of slope (m) of second order polynomial equation "y=ax+bx+c" has been
used to indicate the arrow direction. In case of positive coefficient (a) it is shown as
"" and for negative coefficient t has been shown as "".
3. '&' : Annual Load factor Calculated by using Daily report ENERGY met value and
for peak demand met, SCADA real-time data at NLDC has been used.
The important observations with regard to state load factor pattern are as follows:
i. Delhis Annual Load Factor has dropped from 64% in 2008-09 to 56% in 2014-15.
Delhi is by and large load shedding free state with high per capita income levels. The
load curve of Delhi shows a typical urban area load curve with morning and evening
peaks.
ii. Apart from Delhi, the Annual Load Factor has also declined for Haryana, Punjab,
Uttarakhand, HP, Chandigarh, Goa, MP, Gujarat, Tripura and Manipur, though the
reasons for the same could be different.
iii. Load factor of some utilities have improved. One of the reasons for the same could be
shifting of some peak load to off peak hours.
iv.
It is expected that with emphasis on 100% electrification and 24 x 7 supplies to
consumers in all states, the Annual Load Factor would further decline. This coupled
with the increase in renewable energy (RE) penetration would bring out the need for
more flexible generation and turn down capability of conventional generator fleet.
Detailed analysis of load factor pattern of each state is given in last section.
Due to various assumption and errors in the source data, the load factor calculated based on
SCADA data could be different than the load factor calculated from the peak demand and
energy figures published by CEA. The trend of yearly load factor calculated based on the
CEA figures is given below:
Year
All India
Eastern Region
North-Eastern Region
Northern Region
Southern Region
Western Region
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
84.3
77.2
63.8
79.5
84.2
80.9
84.1
75.9
65.6
74.6
86.0
82.1
84.4
78.2
66.1
77.6
81.8
82.6
83.4
79.0
67.3
74.7
84.5
83.3
Table 5: Annual Load Factor Pattern (Based on CEA Monthly report data
"The world is one big data problem." Andrew McAfee
Page 17 of 100
State
Andhra Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chandigarh
Chhattisgarh
Delhi
DVC
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
Odisha
Puducherry
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
11-12
81
53
62
74
68
54
61
88
72
79
65
71
69
79
72
67
56
82
50
62
52
56
73
76
57
74
83
48
70
73
67
12-13
81
55
60
82
55
62
53
76
75
89
65
60
73
66
74
71
53
82
52
56
59
56
75
82
60
72
79
53
72
73
66
13-14
77
48
66
73
52
65
54
72
84
83
61
73
70
75
72
67
58
80
47
55
60
60
75
80
62
66
80
52
76
72
67
14-15
82
55
72
75
50
67
56
78
92
81
58
70
73
80
72
70
62
77
53
51
55
59
76
78
55
70
78
45
76
71
71
Table 6: State wise Annual Load Factor Pattern (Based on CEA monthly report data)
For every two degrees the temperature goes up, check-ins at ice cream shops go up by 2%.
Andrew Hogue
Page 18 of 100
8. Load Factor as per 18th Electric Power Survey (EPS) report of CEA
The load factor has also been assessed and forecasted by CEA in its 18th EPS report. The
extract from the same is given below:
The electric load factor of a power system depends on the pattern of utilization of different
classes of load. If the system feeds block industrial loads like Aluminium and other process
industries etc. having high electric load factor, the overall system load factor would also tend
to be high. In regard to estimation of electric load factor for future, if the pattern of
utilization of different classes of load does not differ appreciably from the past in terms of
percentage of total electric load, then it was assumed that the system load factor of the past
may continue. In case, the pattern is anticipated to change with respect to total electric load
due to gradual withdrawal of restrictions /cuts / load shedding & under frequency conditions
, then it is necessary to estimate the future electric load factor. A broad analysis to ascertain
the influence of load mix on the load factor was undertaken. Based on the analysis of future
electric load mix, the load factor for each State/Union Territory has been worked out.
The All India Annual Electric Load Factor (AELF) in the base year 2009-10 is around
82.7%. According to the 18th EPS, the All India AELF by 2011-12 would be 81.28% which is
expected to gradually reduce to 77.51% by the end of 2016-17, and by 2021-22 load factor is
anticipated to be 76.71%.
Region 0910
83
All
India
84
NR
79
WR
78
SR
78
ER
64
NER
1011
83
1112
81
1213
80
1314
80
1415
79
1516
78
1617
78
1718
77
1819
77
1920
77
2021
77
2122
77
81
78
80
81
63
80
77
77
80
62
80
76
76
80
62
80
76
74
79
62
80
75
73
78
62
80
74
72
78
62
79
73
71
77
62
79
72
71
77
63
79
72
71
76
63
79
72
71
76
64
79
72
71
76
65
78
72
71
75
65
Table 7: All India/Regional Load Factor Pattern (As per 18th EPS)
A comparison of anticipated load factor as per CEA 18th EPS report and actual load factor as
per CEA monthly report is given below:
Region
All India
NR
WR
SR
ER
NER
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Actual
81
80
77
77
80
62
84
79
80
84
77
64
80
80
76
76
80
62
84
75
82
86
76
66
80
80
76
74
79
62
84
78
83
82
78
66
79
80
75
73
78
62
83
75
83
84
79
67
Table 8: Comparison of anticipated and actual load factor
I keep saying that the best job in the next 10 years will be statisticians, and Im not
kidding. Hal Varian
Page 19 of 100
9. International Experience on Load Factor

Experience of developed countries shows that the load factor is generally in the range of
50-70%. This will vary based on the demography of each country. Diversity in the terms of
load and resources help in better utilisation of resources and hence achieving higher load
factors. This is clearing visible in case of European Countries where the load factor of
individual countries is in the range of 50-70% but the load factor of Europe is above 70%.
European Union
Member Countries
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Czech Republic
Germany
Denmark
Spain
Finland
France
United Kingdom
Greece
Croatia
Hungary
Ireland
Iceland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Serbia
Sweden
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
69
69
52
70
68
82
41
67
66
60
61
63
64
72
61
90
70
73
63
68
64
70
63
73
73
50
70
70
78
64
67
68
61
62
62
64
73
61
95
67
75
62
70
63
72
59
63
81
71
55
91
70
74
63
67
64
60
61
61
67
77
65
92
71
75
63
73
63
72
62
61
68
68
48
69
67
75
63
70
67
55
61
60
62
74
64
90
69
70
62
69
65
72
60
62
69
74
52
93
71
72
60
75
67
61
59
65
69
76
66
89
67
68
58
70
67
72
65
59
69
69
52
70
68
82
41
67
66
60
61
63
64
72
61
90
70
73
63
68
64
70
63
Table 9: Load Factor trend of European Countries

(Source: Calculated based on the Annual Energy and Annual Peak demand figures available from Entsoe
Monthly Reports and Entsoe Statistical Year Books)
Similarly, in case of USA, the average load factor is in the range of 50%-60%.
We chose it because we deal with huge amounts of data. Besides, it sounds really cool.
Larry Page
Page 20 of 100
A comparison of load factor of other countries/regions is given below:
Year
USA- USAUSAJapan- South Brazil- Sri

PJM California* ERCOT Australia TEPCO Africa ONS Lanka
2009
61
56
55
59
75
74
60
2010
60
51
55
63
56
76
77
63
2011
53
55
56
71
62
77
79
61
2012
58
55
56
70
61
77
77
63
2013
57
53
58
69
60
77
76
63
2014
64
52
56
77
59
77
73
63
Table 10: Load Factor of other countries

(Source: 1) Calculated based on the hourly load data and annual energy data available on PJM and ERCOT
website. 2) Load Factor of Australia has been calculated based on the annual energy figures available on Energy
Supply Association of Australia Website and annual peak demand was taken from Australian Energy Regulator
website. 3) Load Factor of Japan is calculated based on the peak demand and energy consumption data available
on TEPCO website. 4) Load Factor of South Africa has been taken from the system adequacy outlook of
National Energy Regulator of South Africa for the year 2015. 5) Load Factor of Brazil has been calculated based
on the annual energy and peak demand data available on ONS Brazil website. 6) Load Factor of Sri Lanka has
been taken from the annual report of Ceylon Electricity Board)
* Based on non-coincident peak demand and taken from California Energy Commission website
It is evident from the experience of other developed countries that the quantum of the energy
could be different but the shape of load curve or load factor would be substantially similar.
For example, Delhis per capita energy consumption is lower that USA but the load factors
are comparable.
Internationally, load factor is being considered as a factor which impact the overall electricity
cost. A study by Colorado Spring Utilities, USA shows that the load factor has inverse
relationship with the overall electricity cost. A graph indicating the same is given below
Figure 5: Relationship of Load Factor with overall electricity cost

(Source: White Paper #7, The Hidden Costs of Low Load Factor, Colorado Spring Utilities, USA)
Data beats emotions. Sean Rad
Page 21 of 100
10.Load Factor in other Industries

Load factor can also be termed as an index of asset utilisation, it is an important consideration
in energy policy and effects overall operational costs and ultimately the planning process. All
utilities and industries that offer public service with Large Capital Investments are natural
monopolies, all of these have consumption variability like airline and airports will have a
surge of traffic during the holiday season and Traffic on roads also has morning and evening
peaks. The infrastructure needs to be designed for peak demand in case of all such industries.
Airlines- Load Factor in Airlines is the percentage of seats occupied and is the indicator of
profitability. Load Factor in Airlines is sensitive to Time of Day and also time of the year, the
pricing for airlines is extremely sensitive to particular Load Factors.
Telecommunication- The load factor was used in early history of the landline telephones,
which, then had to contend with high cost of manual switching. The uneconomic nature of
the business associated with the scaling up of the landline telephone network, because of the
low load factor and diversity factor actually discouraged network expansion.
Transport-: Load factor of the transport medium also impacts the pricing of services. For
example, the anticipated load factor of a highway is an important factor while deciding the
toll rate of the highway.
11.Data Source and Assumption

1. Demand met data considered for this analysis consist primarily of 15 minute and hourly
instant demand met data captured at National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) from 20082015 through SCADA.
2. The data is stored at 1 minute interval which is thereafter converted to 5 minute/15
minutes / hourly data. Maximum demand met for day/months/years have been calculated
by using 15 minutes instantaneous Demand data.
3. Average demand met has been calculated by using energy consumption from daily report
prepared at NLDC. This data is being provided by states to Regional Load Despatch
(RLDC) on daily basis.
In God we trust. All others must bring data. W. Edwards Deming
Page 22 of 100
4. Some discrepancies in data could also be present due to failure of communication at some
point of time. In case of missing data following assumption have been made:
4.1.
Loss of data for small period of time: Last data has been considered.
4.2.
Loss of data for long period: Same time period data of previous day has been
considered.
Loss of data for entire day: Previous day data has been considered
4.3.
5. SCADA data is not time synchronised data. Hence all the samples collected at a particular
time may not be of exactly same time.
6. Demand of each state has been calculated as the summation of internal generation and
total drawl from the grid. In case some generators are not reporting to RLDC/NLDC, the
state demand calculated at RLDC/NLDC would be less than actual demand by that much
amount. Similarly the drawl of any state is calculated at the periphery of the state and
hence does not include state transmission and distribution losses.
12.Seasonal Decomposition
Seasonal decomposition is an approach to identify the seasonality and trend in any time
series. This can be done in a time series which exhibit seasonality and trend.
Mathematical representation of the decomposition approach is:
Yt f ( St , Tt , Et )
Yt
St
Tt
Et
is the time series value (actual data) at period t.

is the seasonal component ( index) at period t.
is the trend cycle component at period t.
is the irregular (remainder) component at period t.
The exact functional form depends on the decomposition model actually used. Two
common approaches are:
1. Additive Model
Yt St Tt Et
An additive model is appropriate if the magnitude of the seasonal fluctuation does
not vary with the level of the series.
Without big data, you are blind and deaf and in the middle of a freeway. Geoffrey Moore
Page 23 of 100
2. Multiplicative Model
Yt St Tt Et
Multiplicative model is more prevalent with economic series since most seasonal
economic series have seasonal variation which increases with the level of the
series.
The seasonal decomposition of the load factor trend has been done in R software. The
Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) is an algorithm that was developed to
help to divide up a time series into three components namely: the trend, seasonality and
remainder. The values are normalised values w.r.t maximum. The methodology was
presented by Robert Cleveland, William Cleveland, Jean McRae and Irma Terpenning in
the Journal of Official Statistics in 1990. The STL is available within R via the stl
function.
13.Way Forward
The above analysis provides useful information regarding the trend of load factor of each
state. This information could be used for generation, transmission and distribution planning
by the central and state level power system planning agencies. Load factor can also provide
insight into the restrictions being placed on the consumers.
It is evident from the experience of Europe and India that the integration of grid would help
in harnessing diversity among the different regions and improving the load factor. It is
expected that formation of SAARC grid in future would also help in increasing the load
factor and reducing overall cost of supply in SAARC region. More such analysis is required
to be done to understand the finer aspects of load factor and its impact on power system. Such
work should take into account the penetration of LED bulbs, air conditioner, solar pumps for
irrigation, energy efficiency equipments and increasing use of Electric Vehicles (EVs).
Further analysis showing the impact of load factor on cost of supply is required. It is
desirable that each utility works out load factor of its area and report the same to the planners
and regulators. Provisions for the same may also be incorporated in the regulations along
with the future trajectory.
14.Research Team
14.1.
Sh S K Soonee, POSOCO
14.2.
Sh K V S Baba, NLDC
14.3.
Sh S R Narasimhan, NLDC
14.4.
Sh Harish Rathore, NLDC
14.5.
Sh Mohit Joshi, NLDC
14.6.
Ms Bindiya Jain, NLDC
14.7.
Sh Puneet Maurya, NLDC
14.8.
Sh Raj Protim Kundu, ERLDC
14.9.
Ms Kajal Gaur, NLDC
Hiding within those mounds of data is knowledge that could change the life of a patient, or
change the world. Atul Butte
15.All India, Region wise and State wise Analysis

15.1.
ALL INDIA
1. Average Load Factor (%)
Average Daily Load Factor from 2008-2015(Till Nov.)
92
Average Monthly Load Factor from 2008-2015(Till Nov).) 88
Average Annual Load Factor 2008-2015(Till Nov.)
84
2. Change in Yearly Load Factor (%) from 2008-2015:

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
84
84
81
84
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
85
85
86
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
84
Acc()/
Dec()
3. Seasonal Decomposition of Load Factor Trend
Data that is loved tends to survive. Kurt Bollacker
Page 25 of 100
4. Demand Duration Curve
5. Load Factor Trend
6. Highest/Lowest Load Factor Occurrence

Month/ Period of highest Load Factor
Month / Period of lowest Load Factor
April-May
Oct-December
Torture the data, and it will confess to anything. Ronald Coase
Page 26 of 100
15.2.
NORTHERN REGION

91
Average Monthly Load Factor from 2008-2015(Till Nov.) 86
Average Annual Load Factor from 2008-2015(Till Nov.) 78
2. Change in Yearly Load Factor (%) from 2008-2015

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
79
82
81
78
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
78
77
76
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
76
Acc()/
Dec()
For every two degrees the temperature goes up, check-ins at ice cream shops go up by 2%
Andrew Hogue
Page 27 of 100

September-Oct
April-May
The world is one big data problem. Andrew McAfee
Page 28 of 100
15.3.
WESTERN REGION

92
79

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
81
79
74
81
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
82
79
79
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
80
Acc()/
Dec()
The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight. Carly Fiorina
Page 29 of 100

July-August
Oct-December
Its easy to lie with statistics. Its hard to tell the truth without statistics. Andrejs Dunkels
Page 30 of 100
15.4.
SOUTHERN REGION

92

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
81
78
77
84
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
83
79
81
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
83
Acc()/
Dec()
Data! Data! Data! I cant make bricks without Clay - Arthur Conan Doyle
Page 31 of 100

July-August
Oct-December
What gets measured, gets managed- Peter Drucker
Page 32 of 100
15.5.
EASTERN REGION

86

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
76
77
77
76
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
78
77
76
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
78
Acc()/
Dec()
Once we know something, we find it hard to imagine what it was like not to know it Chip Heath
Page 33 of 100

June-July
December
If the statistics are boring, then you've got the wrong numbers - Edward R. Tufte
Page 34 of 100
15.6.
NORTH-EASTERN REGION

74

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
62
3.
62
64
64
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
65
63
63
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
52
Acc()/
Dec()
Seasonal Decomposition of Load Factor Trend
Numbers have an important story to tell Stephen Few
Page 35 of 100
4.
Demand Duration Curve

July
April
Data is the new soil- David McCandless
Page 36 of 100
15.7.
DELHI
1.Average Load Factor (%)

81
61

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
64
61
62
61
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
59
59
56
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
66
Acc()/
Dec()
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data Sherlock Homes
Page 37 of 100

May
November
Data that is loved tend to survive- Kurt Bollacker
Page 38 of 100
15.8.
HARYANA

82

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
62
64
64
64
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
63
60
58
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
63
Acc()/
Dec()
Data is the Next Intel Inside- Tim OReilly
Page 39 of 100

June-July
December
The most valuable commodity I know of is information - Gordon Gekko
Page 40 of 100
15.9.
CHANDIGARH

79
55

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
57
55
55
59
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
53
55
51
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
58
Acc()/
Dec()
If we have data, lets look at data. If all we have are opinions, lets go with mine
- Jim Barksdale
Page 41 of 100

June-July
December-Jan
Data is not information, information is not knowledge, knowledge is not understanding,

understanding is not wisdom Clifford Stoll
Page 42 of 100
15.10.
HIMACHAL PRADESH

81

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
58
51
57
58
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
54
66
63
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
62
Acc()/
Dec()
Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all Charles Babbage
Page 43 of 100

June-July
December-Jan
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable Mark Twain
Page 44 of 100
15.11.
JAMMU & KASHMIR

81

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
62
70
66
63
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
67
66
65
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
70
Acc()/
Dec()
He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts for support rather than for illuminationAndrew Lang
Page 45 of 100

Oct-November
May-June
If you cant explain it simply, you dont understand it well enough- Albert Einstein
Page 46 of 100
15.12.
PUNJAB

87

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
57
62
62
60
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
58
61
55
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
61
Acc()/
Dec()
Maybe stories are just data with a soul Bren Brown
Page 47 of 100

April-May
Oct-November
No great marketing decisions have ever been made on qualitative data John Sculley
Page 48 of 100
15.13.
RAJASTHAN

89

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
69
68
70
73
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
71
69
71
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
70
Acc()/
Dec()
The most valuable commodity I know of is information Gordon Gekko
Page 49 of 100

April-May
January-Feb
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics Mark Twain
Page 50 of 100
15.14.
UTTAR PRADESH

89

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
75
78
75
74
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
71
73
77
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
75
Acc()/
Dec()
We are drowning in information and starving for knowledge Rutherford D. Rogers
Page 51 of 100

March-April
December-Jan
We simply dont have enough data to form a conclusion Mike A. Lancaster
Page 52 of 100
15.15.
UTTARAKHAND

81

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
62
53
51
57
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
64
67
60
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
69
Acc()/
Dec()
Without big data analytics, companies are blind and deaf, wandering out onto the Web like
deer on a freeway - Geoffrey Moore
Page 53 of 100

March-April
December-Jan
With too little data, you wont be able to make any conclusions that you trust. With loads of data
you will find relationships that arent real Big data isnt about bits, its about talent
Douglas Merrill
Page 54 of 100
15.16.
CHATTISGARH

84

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
60
62
68
70
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
71
71
71
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
76
Acc()/
Dec()
You can use all the quantitative data you can get, but you still have to distrust it and use
your own intelligence and judgment Alvin Toffler
Page 55 of 100

Nov-December
April
With data collection, the sooner the better is always the best answer Marissa Mayer
Page 56 of 100
15.17.
GUJARAT

91

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
81
80
74
78
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
78
75
78
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
79
Acc()/
Dec()
The price of light is less than the cost of darkness. Arthur C. Nielsen
Page 57 of 100

Oct-November
June-July
Too often we forget that genius, too, depends upon the data within its reach, that even
Archimedes could not have devised Edisons inventions. Ernest Dimnet
Page 58 of 100
15.18.
GOA

84

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
66
68
64
63
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
72
74
63
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
40
Acc()/
Dec()
War is 90% information. Napoleon Bonaparte
Page 59 of 100

April-May
December-Jan
I never guess, it is a shocking habitdestructive to the logical faculty. Sherlock Holmes
Page 60 of 100
15.19.
MADHYA PRADESH

82

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
60
66
52
57
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
58
60
61
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
65
Acc()/
Dec()
Intuition becomes increasingly valuable in the new information society precisely because
there is so much data. John Naisbitt
Page 61 of 100

March-April
December
The price of light is less than the cost of darkness. Arthur C. Nielsen
Page 62 of 100
15.20.
MAHARASHTRA

Average Monthly Load Factor from 2008-2015(Till Nov.)
Average Annual Load Factor from 2008-2015(Till Nov.)
90
82
75

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
78
76
64
79
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
77
73
74
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
79
Acc()/
Dec()
Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense.
Gertrude Stein
Page 63 of 100

March-April
Sept-October
your own intelligence and judgment. Alvin Toffler
Page 64 of 100
15.21.
ANDHRA PRADESH

91

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
74
75
71
79
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
79
75
81
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
79
Acc()/
Dec()
Statistics are no substitute for judgment. Henry Clay
Page 65 of 100

March-April
Sep-October
Data is not information, information is not knowledge, knowledge is not understanding,

understanding is not wisdom. Clifford Stoll
Page 66 of 100
15.22.
KARNATAKA

86

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
66
66
63
71
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
74
71
72
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
70
Acc()/
Dec()
We are drowning in information and starving for knowledge. Rutherford D. Rogers
Page 67 of 100

December-Jan
June-July
True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting
information. Winston Churchill
Page 68 of 100
15.23.
KERALA

75
70
65

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
63
64
63
63
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
68
64
68
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
68
Acc()/
Dec()
your own intelligence and judgment. Alvin Toffler
Page 69 of 100

January-Feb
April-May
Numbers have an important story to tell. They rely on you to give them a voice.
Stephen Few
Page 70 of 100
15.24.
PONDICHERRY

86

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
71
74
74
72
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
76
65
72
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
62
Acc()/
Dec()
Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable. Mark Twain
Page 71 of 100

Feb-March
September-Oct
Data is a precious thing and will last longer than the systems themselves. Tim Berners-Lee
Page 72 of 100
15.25.
TAMIL NADU

91

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
76
78
80
79
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
77
81
80
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
82
Acc()/
Dec()
An approximate answer to the right problem is worth a good deal more than an exact
answer to an approximate problem. John Tukey
Page 73 of 100

December-Jan
September-Oct
With data collection, the sooner the better is always the best answer. Marissa Mayer
Page 74 of 100
15.26.
BIHAR

85

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
66
73
66
68
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
68
71
69
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
73
Acc()/
Dec()
Big data is at the foundation of all of the megatrends that are happening today, from social
to mobile to the cloud to gaming. Chris Lynch
Page 75 of 100

January
November
We are drowning in information and starving for knowledge. Rutherford D. Rogers
Page 76 of 100
15.27.
DVC

89
81
76

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
76
79
77.02
72
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
75
78.57
81
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
77
Acc()/
Dec()
The value of an idea lies in the using of it - Thomas A. Edison
Page 77 of 100

November
July
The world is now awash in data and we can see consumers in a lot clearer ways
Max Levchin
Page 78 of 100
15.28.
JHARKHAND

83

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
63
59
63
65
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
67
67
71
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
66
Acc()/
Dec()
If you cant explain it simply, you dont understand it well enough - Albert Einstein
Page 79 of 100

January
May
Data are just summaries of thousands of stories tell a few of those stories to help make
the data meaningful- Chip & Dan Heath
Page 80 of 100
15.29.
ODHISA

83
73
66

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
72
63
61
65
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
67
66
72
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
63
Acc()/
Dec()
A person who is gifted sees the essential point and leaves the rest as surplus-Thomas Carlyle
Page 81 of 100

August
October
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.
Aaron Levenstein
Page 82 of 100
15.30.
WEST BENGAL

80
74
69

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
67
64
70
68
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
68
68
71
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
72
Acc()/
Dec()
Statistics are ubiquitous in life, and so should be statistical reasoning. Alan Blinder
Page 83 of 100

April
November
"The data scientist was called, only half-jokingly, 'a caped superhero.'" Ben Rooney
Page 84 of 100
15.31.
ARUNACHAL PRADESH

69

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
51
47
47
48
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
58
50
53
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
47
Acc()/
Dec()
Data helps solve problems-Anne Wojcicki
Page 85 of 100

April-May
December
Experts often possess more data than judgment-Colin Powell
Page 86 of 100
15.32.
ASSAM

73

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
59
57
63
62
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
61
60
67
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
63
Acc()/
Dec()
Listening to the data is important but so is experience and intuition. After all, what is intuition at
its best but large amounts of data of all kinds filtered through a human brain rather than a math
model? Steve Lohr
Page 87 of 100

April-May
December-Jan
Data is a precious thing and will last longer than the systems themselves. Tim Berners-Lee
Page 88 of 100
15.33.
MANIPUR

63

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
56
51
52
47
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
49
52
56
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
53
Acc()/
Dec()
When we have all data online it will be great for humanity. It is a prerequisite to solving many
problems that humankind faces. Robert Cailliau
Page 89 of 100

April
December
Every second of every day, our senses bring in way too much data than we can possibly process in
our brains. Peter Diamandis
Page 90 of 100
15.34.
MEGHALAYA

74
65
57

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
66
68
64
63
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
72
74
63
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
40
Acc()/
Dec()
The world is now awash in data and we can see consumers in a lot clearer ways. -Max Levchin
Page 91 of 100

May-June
Feb-March
Data = Understanding - Anonymous
Page 92 of 100
15.35.
MIZORAM

66
59
51

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
53
51
51
45
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
52
46
55
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
52
Acc()/
Dec()
Data = Understanding - Anonymous
Page 93 of 100

March-April
December-Jan
Hiding within those mounds of data is knowledge that could change the life of a patient, or change
the world. Atul Butte
Page 94 of 100
15.36.
NAGALAND

68
50
55

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
48
52
54
59
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
58
57
56
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
54
Acc()/
Dec()
A person who is gifted sees the essential point and leaves the rest as surplus-Thomas Carlyle
Page 95 of 100

Feb-March
December-Jan
Data really powers everything that we do- Jeff Weiner
Page 96 of 100
15.37.
TRIPURA

66

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
50
48
48
52
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
58
50
53
2015-16 Inc()/
(Till Nov.) Dec()
52
Acc()/
Dec()
What we have is a data glut. Vernon Vinge
Page 97 of 100

May-June
December-Jan
Getting information off the Internet is like taking a drink from a firehose. Mitchell Kapor
Page 98 of 100
16.References
Reports and Papers
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[7]
[8]
[9]
18th Electric Power Survey, Central Electricity Authority

Report on Growth of Electricity Sector in India, Central Electricity Authority of India, July 2013.
White Paper #7, The Hidden Costs of Low Load Factor, Colorado Spring Utilities, USA
Electricity Use in California: Past Trends and Present Usage Patterns, Richard E. Brown,
Jonathan G. Koomey, May 2002
The Load Factor and the Density Factor, G. P. Watkins, The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Vol. 30, No. 3 (May, 1916), pp. 519-545
Economic and Demographic Factors Affecting California Residential Energy Use, William B.
Marcus, Gregory Ruszovan, Jeffrey A. Nahigian, JBS Energy Inc, California USA
Electricity load profiles in Europe: The importance of household segmentation, Marian Hayn,
Valentin Bertsch, Wolf Fichtner, Energy Research & Social Science 3 (2014) 3045
ENSTOE Monthly Statistics , Statistical Year Book and System Adequacy Retrospect from 20092014
Modern Power System Practice, CEGB
Websites
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
[17]
[18]
[19]
[20]
www.wikepdeia.org
www.cea.nic.in
www.pjm.com
www.ercot.com
www.energy.ca.gov
www.ceb.lk
www.tepco.co.jp
www.ons.org.br
www.entsoe.eu
www.esaa.com.au
www.aer.gov.au
When we have all data online it will be great for humanity. It is a prerequisite to solving many
problems that humankind faces. Robert Cailliau
Page 99 of 100
Power System Operation Corporation Limited

B-9, Qutab Institutional Area, Katwaria Sarai,
New Delhi-110016
Email: posococc@posoco.in
Website: www.posoco.in

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Electricity Load Factor

Power System Operation Corporation Ltd.

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Message from Sh A S Bakshi, Member, CERC ........................................................................... 5

Understanding Load Curve.................................................................................................... 10

Classification of Load Factors ............................................................................................... 11

Significance of Load Factor ................................................................................................... 11

Factors affecting Load Factor ................................................................................................ 12

Analysis of Load Factor Patterns .......................................................................................... 15

International Experience on Load Factor............................................................................. 20

Load Factor in other Industries ......................................................................................... 22

Data Source and Assumption ............................................................................................. 22

Seasonal Decomposition ..................................................................................................... 23

Way Forward ...................................................................................................................... 24

Research Team .................................................................................................................... 24

All India, Region wise and State wise Analysis ................................................................ 25

NORTHERN REGION .................................................................................................. 27

WESTERN REGION ..................................................................................................... 29

SOUTHERN REGION ................................................................................................... 31

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

HIMACHAL PRADESH ................................................................................................ 43

JAMMU & KASHMIR .................................................................................................. 45

MADHYA PRADESH .................................................................................................... 61

ANDHRA PRADESH ..................................................................................................... 65

WEST BENGAL ............................................................................................................. 83

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Message from Sh A S Bakshi, Member, CERC

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Message from Sh Major Singh, Chairperson, CEA

Electricity Planning is evolving and becoming more complex. Given the

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Message from Dr K Ramalingam, Chairman, R&D Committee

Power Sector in general and Power System in particular is

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Data beats emotions. Sean Rad

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

2. Understanding Load Curve

Figure 2: Typical All India Load Curve

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

A typical load curve has four important cardinal points:

3. Classification of Load Factors

Daily Load Factor =

Daily Average Load

4. Significance of Load Factor

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

The planning of transmission/distribution is done based on peak demand. A lower

5. Factors affecting Load Factor

Figure 3: Seasonal Behaviour of All India Load Factor

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Typical Load Factor (%)

Table 1: Typical Load Factor of different types of load

"Data matures like wine, applications like fish." James Governor

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

Figure 4: Trend of All India Diversity Factor based on SCADA data

Table 2: All India/Regional Yearly Diversity Factor

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System

7. Analysis of Load Factor Patterns

Annual Load Factor

"The data fabric is the next middleware." Todd Papaioannou

Electricity Load Factor in Indian Power System