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Chapter 4
Chapter 4
odds
alternative method for describing likelihood of occurrence of an event
If P (A) is the probability that event A occurs, then
the odds in favor of A is given as the ratio P (A) to
P (Ac), while the odds against A is the inverse ratio
P (Ac) to P (A)
Conversely, if the odds in favor of event A is stated as
a
a to b, then P (A) = a+b
, whereas if the odds against
b
event A is stated as a to b, then P (A) = a+b
Venn diagram
diagram of the sample space of an event (represented
by a rectangle) that depicts the relations among various
collections of outcomes (represented by circles which
might overlap); a very useful tool to help in the computation of probabilities
Chapter 4
exhaustive events
events which cover all possibilities from the sample space
of the probabilistic experiment
disjoint/mutually exclusive events
events which have no outcomes in common, that is, can
never occur simultaneously
independent events
events one of whose outcomes has no influence on the
outcomes of the other, that is, the likelihood of the
occurrence of one is unaffected by whether the other
takes place or not
Chapter 4
Chapter 4
conditional probability
If A and B are any two events, then the conditional
probability P (B|A) of event B given event A is the
frequency of the outcomes in B conditioned by the
outcomes in A; that is,
(rel.) freq. of outcomes in B also in A
P (B|A) =
(rel.) freq. of outcomes in A
which is equivalent to the definition:
P (A B)
.
P (B|A) =
P (A)
General Multiplication Rule
If A and B are any two events, then
P (A B) = P (A) P (B|A).
Chapter 4
independent events
Events are independent precisely when their conditional
probabilities are the same as their unconditional probabilities; that is, when either one (and thus both) of
these formulas hold:
P (B|A) = P (B),
P (A|B) = P (A).
contingency table
Paired qualitative data is organized in a table whose
columns list the categories of one variable x and whose
rows list the categories of the other variable y; each
cell of the table counts the joint frequency of individuals who simultaneously fall into both that column and
row category
tree diagram
a diagram of the outcomes of pairs of successive events,
in which the first level of branches represent outcomes
of one event and the second layer outcomes of the second; useful for working with conditional probabilities
Chapter 4
Chapter 4
Bayes Theorem
a formula that describes how to find the posterior probability P (A|B) involving a pair of events A and B when
the probability of the conditional event B is not known:
P (A|B) =
P (B|A)P (A)
P (B|A)P (A) + P (B|Ac)P (Ac)
Chapter 4
Counting Rules
Many probability computations require the enumeration of
outcomes of some probabilistic experiment; consequently,
rules for counting collections of objects are useful to have
available.
n factorial (n!)
the product of all the integers from 1 to n (where by
convention we always define 0! = 1)
permutations (nPx)
arrangements of objects in which the order of selection
matters; if x objects are selected from a total of n
objects, then the number of possible permutations of
these objects is
n!
P
=
n x
(n x)!
combinations (nCx)
arrangements of objects in which the order of selection
does not matter; if x objects are selected from a total
of n objects, then the number of possible combinations
of these objects is
n
n!
C
=
=
n x
x
x!(n x)!
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