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1. Financial Investments
1.2.2 Bonds
2. Corporate Finance
3.3 Insurance
and
Financial Commitments:
Expenses (Balance Sheet)
Benefits
(Income
Revenues
and
Cash Flows
Project Valuation is based on Cash Flows
Advanced Corporate Finance
Cash Flows
Relevant flows are cash flows; not accounting profits.
Note: cash-flow is different from earnings + depreciation
+ provisions or from EBITDA.
Cash Flows
Always considerer
(incremental base).
the
differential
project
Cash Flows
Include the cash flows regarding taxes.
In order to do so (and, preferably, only to do so) it is
necessary to compute the Income Statement.
Cash Flows
Beware of allocated overhead costs or general expenses.
Examples: rent, administration wages, ... Right perspective:
with versus without the project.
Dont consider interest payment: separate the investment
decision from the financing decision (exceptions considered
in chapter 19).
Remember to include the projects terminal value
(equipment/property) at the end of the project (and the
associated taxes).
Cash Flows
Timing of Cash Flows (Time Value of Money)
Incremental Cash Flows
Sunk costs
Opportunity costs
Externalities / Cannibalization
With /without project versus before / after
Cash Flows
Working Capital
After-Tax Basis
Beware of Allocated Overhead Costs
Financing Costs Ignored (included in cost of
capital)
Consider the Terminal Value
10
Inflation
Consistency
Constant Prices Real Rate
Nominal Prices Nominal Rate
Commom mistake: constant prices at a nominal rate.
11
CAPM
Return
Risk Free
Return =
rf
Security Market
Line (SML)
BETA
ri = rF + ( rM rF ) i
Guilherme Almeida e Brito
12
Measuring Betas
13
Measuring Betas
14
Measuring Betas
15
Valuation of Stocks
(simple version)
CF1
(1 + r01 )
CF2
(1 + r02 )
CF3
(1 + r03 )
+ ... +
CFt
(1 + r0 t )t
+ ...
17
Gordon s Model
Simplifying assumption: dividends grow at a fixed rate g.
P0 =
Div1
rg
Div1
Div2
Div3
DivH + PH
+
+
+ ... +
2
3
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r ) H
PH =
DivH +1
rg
Estimating g
g=
Div
Div
Definition:
b)
Estimating g
.
g=
Div Earnings E
E
Earnings
E
g=
Ret. Earn
ROE = Plowback Ratio ROE
Earnings
20