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Abstract
Supply chain is dened as a system of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and customers where material, nancial
and information ows connect participants in both directions. Most supply chains are composed of independent agents with
individual preferences. It is expected that no single agent has the power to optimise the supply chain. Supply chain management
is now seen as a governing element in strategy and as an effective way of creating value for customers. The so-called bullwhip
effect, describing growing variation upstream in a supply chain, is probably the most famous demonstration that decentralised
decision making can lead to poor supply chain performance. Information asymmetry is one of the most powerful sources of
the bullwhip effect. Information sharing of customer demand has an impact on the bullwhip effect. Information technology
has lead to centralised information, shorter lead times and smaller batch sizes. The analysis of causes of the bullwhip effect
has lead to suggestions for reducing the bullwhip effect in supply chains by strategic partnership. Supply chain partnership
leads to increased information ows, reduced uncertainty, and a more protable supply chain. The cooperation is based on
contacts and formal agreements. Information exchange is very important issue for coordinating actions of units. New business
practices and information technology make the coordination even closer. Information sharing and strategic partnerships of
units can be modelled by different network structures.
2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Supply chain; System dynamics; Bullwhip effect; Information sharing; Cooperation
chain modelling [2]. A structure of supply chains is composed from potential suppliers, producers, distributors, retailers and customers etc. The units are interconnected by
material, nancial, information and decisional ows. Most
supply chains are composed of independent units with individual preferences. Each unit will attempt to optimise his
own preference. Behaviour that is locally efcient can be
inefcient from a global point of view. In supply chain behaviour are many inefciencies. An increasing number of
companies in the world subscribe to the idea that developing long-term coordination and cooperation can signicantly
improve the efciency of supply chains and provide a way
to ensure competitive advantage.
The overall business environment is becoming increasingly dynamic. Demand and supply for custom products
can be very dynamic. Supply chains operate in a network
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2. System dynamics
System dynamics is concerned with problem solving in
living systems [36]. It links together hard control theory
with soft system theory. System dynamics needs relevant
tools from both ends of the systems spectrum. If the possible
causal factors are identied and their respective contribution to the overall dynamics are quantitatively measured and
benchmarked, then it would be conducive to performance
improvement by eliminating or reducing the relevant dynamics. The performance improvement is also predictable
with the help of the dynamics benchmark. Systems of information feedback control are fundamental to all systems.
Feedback theory explains how decisions, delays and predictions can produce either good control or dramatically unstable operation.
The supply chain dynamics lead to the increase in the
cost of the units and the whole chain. A feedback control
system causes a decision, which in turn affects the original
environment. In supply chains, orders and inventory levels
lead to manufacturing decisions that ll orders and correct
inventories. As a consequence of using system dynamics
in supply chain redesign, we are able to generate added
insight into system dynamic behaviour and particularly into
In the case of centralised information, i.e. the last stage provides every stage of the supply chain with complete information on customer demand, the variance increase is additive:
2( ki=1 Li ) 2( ki=1 Li )2
Var(q k )
1 +
+
.
Var(D)
p
p2
The centralised solution can be used as a benchmark, but
the bullwhip effect is not completely eliminated.
3. Modelling of system dynamics
The structure of supply chains and relations in among
units can be modelled by different types of networks.
AND/OR networks can be applied for modelling exible
and dynamic supply chains [8]. The approach follows an
activity on arc representation where each arc corresponds
to a particular supply chain activity. Each activity has multiple performance criteria. Nodes represent completion of activities and establish precedent constraints among activities.
The initial suppliers without predecessors and end customers
without successors are represented by nodes displayed as
circles. Two types of nodes are dened to specifying prior
activities. AND nodes are nodes for which all the activities
must be accomplished before the outgoing activities can begin. OR nodes require that at least one of the incoming activities be nished before the outgoing activities can begin.
The STELLA software is one of several computer applications created to implement concepts of system dynamics
[9]. It combines together the strengths of an iconographic
programming style and the speed and versatility of computers. The instrument is very appropriate to proposed modelling framework for dynamic multilevel supply network.
The STELLA language consists of four basic building
and one space-saving tool. The four building blocks are:
Stock, represent something that accumulates.
Flow, activity that changes magnitude of stock.
Converter, modies an activity.
Connector, transmits inputs and information.
Fig. 1 shows the icons of building blocks. This approach
enables to model and to solve a broad class of dynamic
problems. Differential equation can be used for modelling
of system dynamics. STELLA software offers the numerical
CONVERTER
FLOW
STOCK
CONNECTOR
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Producer i
- information
- tools
Shared
information
Producers i
Retailers j
problem
problem
Joint problem
representation representation representation
Retailer j
- information
- tools
Coordinator
- information
- tools
5. Conclusions
Supply chain management has generated a substantial
amount of interest both among managers and researchers.
The interest has also been fuelled by the growth in the development and application of e-business technologies. Ebusiness is associated with business models and practices
enabling continuous improvements in supply chains. Supply
chain management is more and more affected by network
and dynamic business environment and by information and
communication technologies. The network economy is characterised by massive global connectivity relationship among
economic subjects.
The paper is devoted to modelling of supply chain dynamics. In the model some important features of this environment are established. The combination of network structure
modelling and simulation of dynamic behaviour of units in
supply chain can be a powerful instrument of performance
analysis of supply chains. Multicriteria analysis of supply
chain performance includes criteria such as quantity, time,
cost and prot. Simulation approach by STELLA software
is an appropriate tool for prediction of real supply chain
situation. The partners in supply chains can prot from
cooperative decision making. The combination of noncooperative and cooperative behaviour of network users is
more realistic.
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