WHITE PAPER

Executive Summary:
The End of the Light Bulb
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Published 1Q 2016

Krystal Maxwell
Research Associate
Jesse Foote
Senior Research Analyst
Casey Talon
Principal Research Analyst

The End of the Light Bulb

Section 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1

Introduction
The end of the light bulb signals a pathway to industry transformation. Technology
innovation is redefining the design, applications, and benefits of lighting. This evolution in
lighting reflects opportunities and challenges for incumbent market players and new
entrants poised to disrupt the market. Since lighting is ubiquitous in homes and
workplaces, the end of the light bulb will have a significant impact on both end users and
market players. In this white paper, Navigant Research presents a roadmap of long-term
lighting market transformation and opportunities for industry disruption.

1.2

Technology Innovation
LEDs are the force majeure in the lighting industry, as they have become the goal for major
lighting upgrades in recent years. The significant energy savings, controllability, and
lifespan benefits have tipped the scales against pushback on price premiums as the
technology has matured. Today, LEDs are achieving significant market penetration in both
commercial and residential applications. The capabilities of LEDs, which will likely replace
long-lived lighting technologies, set the stage for evolutionary market transformation. This
adoption trend represents a shift in the market as LED lamps replace incandescent,
halogen, fluorescent, and even compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), oftentimes in
existing fixtures.
The end of the light bulb is something altogether different. This idea is not about a one-toone replacement, but about disruptive change. It represents completely new form factors,
uses, and benefitsa reimagining of lighting. Once again, LED is leading the way. From
LED sheets to organic LED (OLED) panels, designers and manufacturers are setting the
stage for long-term market disruption.

1.3

Reimagining of Lighting
Keeping the lights on is not the only objective in todays market. As technology continues
to evolve, R&D and pre-commercial products are providing a glimpse into the possibilities
for future lighting. Acuity Brands, Cooledge Lighting, Konica Minolta, LG Chem, and Philips
Lighting provide a few illustrations of flexibility in design and function that come with the
end of the light bulb. Lighting technology will soon no longer be about just seeing in the
dark; rather, it will develop into a new gamut of use cases and benefits. This paper
presents a look into the white space that is the future of lighting.

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in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

The End of the Light Bulb

Section 7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1

Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 1

1.2

Technology Innovation .................................................................................................................. 1

1.3

Reimagining of Lighting................................................................................................................. 1

Section 2 ...................................................................................................................................................... 2
Market Transformation ............................................................................................................................... 2
2.1

Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 2

2.2

LED Innovation .............................................................................................................................. 2

2.3

Design Flexibility ........................................................................................................................... 3

2.3.1

Acuity Brands, Inc. .................................................................................................................. 4

2.3.2

Cooledge Lighting ................................................................................................................... 4

2.3.3

Konica Minolta, Inc. ................................................................................................................. 5

2.3.4

LG Chem ................................................................................................................................. 6

2.3.5

Philips Lighting ........................................................................................................................ 6

2.4

Breakthrough Applications ............................................................................................................ 7

2.4.1

Wallpapers............................................................................................................................... 7

2.4.2

Windows .................................................................................................................................. 8

2.5

Endless Possibilities ...................................................................................................................... 8

Section 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 10
Evolutionary Pace ..................................................................................................................................... 10
3.1

When Is the End of the Light Bulb? ............................................................................................ 10

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in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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The End of the Light Bulb

3.2

Near-Term Substitution ............................................................................................................... 10

3.3

Mid-Term Alternatives ................................................................................................................. 10

3.4

Long-Term End of the Light Bulb ................................................................................................ 11

3.5

Limitations and Potential Roadblocks ......................................................................................... 12

Section 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 13
Revenue Signals ....................................................................................................................................... 13
4.1

Market Opportunity ...................................................................................................................... 13

4.1.1

Advanced Lighting Components Revenue ............................................................................ 13

Section 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 16
Conclusions and Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 16
5.1

Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 16

5.2

Recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 16

Section 6 .................................................................................................................................................... 18
Acronym and Abbreviation List ............................................................................................................... 18
Section 7 .................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 19
Section 8 .................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table of Charts and Figures..................................................................................................................... 21
Section 9 .................................................................................................................................................... 22
Scope of Study .......................................................................................................................................... 22
Sources and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 22
Notes .......................................................................................................................................................... 23

2016 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means,
in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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The End of the Light Bulb

Section 8
TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES
Chart 4.1

Lighting Innovation and Intelligent Building Revenue, World Markets: 2016-2024 ............... 13

Figure 2.1

Acuitys TRILIA OLED Panels (L) and CANVIS OLED Wall-Mount Screen (R) ..................... 4

Figure 2.2

Cooledge Lightings 7 mm LINE (L) and SQUARE (R) ........................................................... 5

Figure 2.3

Konica Minoltas OLED Panel (L) and OLED Tulips (R) ......................................................... 5

Figure 2.4

LG Chems Flexible OLED Panel in Use ................................................................................. 6

Figure 2.5

Hue Lightstrip (L) and OneSpace (R) ...................................................................................... 7

Figure 2.6

Luminous Patterns (L) and Lighting Wallpaper (R) ................................................................. 8

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in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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The End of the Light Bulb

Section 9
SCOPE OF STUDY
Navigant Research has prepared this white paper to provide interested stakeholders at all levels of the
lighting industry, including manufacturers, analysts, investors, and policymakers, with an overview of the
opportunities and challenges related to the evolution of the lighting industry. Today, LED and OLED
solutions are initiating the next stage in transformative lighting deployments that include lighting controls,
lighting as a service, and BEMS software.
The goal of this white paper is to provide an understanding of some of the key market developments that
are taking place as the lighting industry shifts from traditional lighting sources to integrated lighting. Note
that this report does not aim to offer an exhaustive assessment of the trends and their impacts. Navigant
Research provides comprehensive analyses in more in-depth reports in both the Lighting Innovations and
Intelligent Building Management Systems Research Services.

SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Navigant Researchs industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research
Reports. The key component of Navigant Researchs analysis is primary research gained from phone and
in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals.
Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain,
including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry
associations, government agencies, and the investment community.
Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Navigant Researchs analysts and its staff
of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within
this report.
These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analysts industry expertise, are
synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Navigant Researchs reports. Great
care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown
and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their
methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients.
Navigant Research is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of
market opportunities within its coverage areas. Navigant Research is not beholden to any special
interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry,
unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech
markets.

2016 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means,
in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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The End of the Light Bulb

NOTES
CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula:
CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value)(1/steps) 1.
CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are
given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given
as well.
Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments,
and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year
2016 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

2016 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means,
in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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The End of the Light Bulb

Published 1Q 2016

2016 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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Note: Editing of this report was closed on March 21, 2016.

2016 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means,
in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.

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