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1 (1)

A Walk Into the Future A Collection of Essays by Kai-Fu


Lee 2006 9
25

2000

Google
IT

2 (2)

25

2004

21

www.kaifulee.com

2006 9

3 (1)


2000

5 23 ?

4 (2)

Ambady

Windows 2000 3000


5000

5 (3)

IBM IBM

6 (4)

??

7 (5)

C , Java?
HTML, XML?

- Rick Rashid
50,000

??

8 (6)

- Internet

16

200

9 (1)


2000 8
2003


Good To GreatBuilt to Last
?Jim Collins

leadership

IQ,EQ

10 (2)

honesty and integrity

Open communication

Internet


?
Internet

?
Open and respectful

11 (3)

leadership skills
( EQ
IQ

188

12 (4)

Empathy

400 10

10
10

13 (5)

Self-Regulation

14 (6)

?2002

GoodGreat 10.5
6000 2000 1435
28 50

Windows 95
? Windows NT Windows 2000

Unix
Windows Windows NT

IT
IT


EQ

15 (1)


2004

2004 2
4

16 (2)


,
,

impact

17 (3)

?
1977
?
2002 ? 25

??

??

90%

70

18 (4)

19 (5)

11
1/7
1/7

108

20 (6)

95% 5%


21 (7)

Perception is reality

360

22 (8)

23 (9)

lymbic

96

24 (1)

2004 6

1000

VisiCalc
25 (2)

B. F. Skinner

10%

26 (3)

MIT
MIT MIT
MIT

27 (4)

28 (5)

www.diyinside.com

29 (6)

30 (7)

31 (8)


32 (1)

?Jim CollinsBuilt to Last

Google GOOGLE

Google

3100 2005
400 165 330
350
1
2
3
4

Basic DOS DOS


Office Office
Windows NTWindows 2000Windows XP
Internet
MSN
XBOX

2005 85
500
33 (2)
2

??

4
MSN
XBOX


HPAccenture

IT

34 (3)


?
? 2000 2000 1

WindowsSQL Server XBOX


2000

1?
?

Office

IBMSun
?
?

2?
?

3
??


2000

?
2000

35 (4)

30%
10

50

50

Jim Allchin
?Jim Allchin
Jim Jim
?
?
Jim AllchinIBM

Jim Allchin

3
?
50 150
600
20

600

1234


5%
?

100 5%

100 95
5
36 (5)
4

?
?
??
?

1
234
5
1

DOS
Windows Windows
Windows Word ExcelDOS
Word Excel Windows
Windows
Windows Windows OfficeWindows
NT Internet.NET


28
28

37 (6)
2

Jim Gray

Jim Gray Jim

?
:

post-mortem

1995 ?
Internet
?

Internet
Internet
IE
Internet ?

38 (7)
4

SMART?S Specific ?
M Measurable ?A Attainable ?
R Result-based ?T Time-based

Office Office
Office Office

Windows XP

39 (8)
?
?

?
()

? SMART

?
?

?,

?
?

?
?

?
?
?
?
?
?

40 Google (1)
Google

Google

Google

Google Google
Google

IT
Google
Google
10 100%
7 1000
0% 1998 50
OED
Merriam-WebsterGoogle IT
Google

41 Google (2)
IT

IT Google
Google

1666
J.J.

IT

IT

IT 1980

Build it and they will come

1980 1990 IT

.COM

PC

42 Google (3)

IT

Google
Google IT

Google

1930

?
1938 50

Google
R DGoogle

Google

anchor text

Google

Google
43 Google (4)
Google ??

Google

Google 20%
20% Google 20%

Google
Gmail Google News 20%
20%
20% 80%

80% 80%
20%
10%-20%
30%
20%
80%

Google


Google

70%-20%10%

Google Google

GoogleGoogle

Google

Beta Google

44 Google (5)

Google
Google

Google

Google

Google


Google
Google Google
Google
Google

Google

Google

Google Google
Google

Google

45 Google (6)

PC
Office

Google

Google Google GMailGoogle

Google

Google
Google

Google
Google Google

Google IT

Google
Google
Google

Google

Google

Google
CEO
CEO Google Google

46 Google (7)
Google CEO
Google

60

Google

Google News

Google

Google

Google

Google
?

Google
Google

CEO

TGIF

47 Google (8)

Google
Google Map Google
Google Map

Google

Google

Google 4 1 Google
Google

Google
Gmail 4 1
Google
1GB 2GB

Google
The Terminal

Google
Google

30%
10 Google Jeff Dean

Google

recruiter
Google 500

48 Google (9)

Google Google Google


24
Google

Google

Google
Google
Google

Google
Vint Cerf Crawler
Louis Monier UNIX C Rob Pike Linux Andrew
MortonApache Greg SteinPython Guido Van RossumXML
Adam Bosworth

Google Google
Google
Google

Google

100
100 90

Google

1.0 4.0 1.0


2.0 3.0 4.0

49 Google (10)

1995

2.0 2.5

Google

Google

Google

Google

Google
Google

Google

Google
Google

Google 1% 20%
Google

Google

50 Google (11)
?Google
24
?

?
? Google

? Google
Google

?
?Google
Google
?Google
? Google
Founders Award 100

?
?Google

?Google

?
?
Google

? Google
100 120

100
Google Google Google

Google Google

Google
Google
IT


51 (1)

1998

2004

?
2004

50%

20

50%

85% 20
17
IBM

12
345

1
1862 Justin Morrill

52 (2)

Morrill

20

Vannevar Bush
Vannevar
Bush
Science, the Endless Frontier

?
1940 1990 4000 2000
380
? Vannevar Bush
Federalism by Contract
41 /22

?Vannevar Bush
Lincoln Labs Jet Propulsion Lab
LockeedBBN

Bush

Bush

Vannevar Bush
1931
Differential Analyzer 1945
As We May Think
Internet
Vannevar Bush
Raytheon Vannevar Bush

53 (3)
2

7 7 50%
50%

4
19

19

54 (4)

19

MIT 2000
MIT

Clark Kerr

5
?

?
?

85%

1 2 3 4
5 6 7
8 9Dartmouth 10 Dartmouth
1
2 3

?
Carnegie, Mellon, Stanford,
RockefellerHarvard Rockefeller

?endowment

endowment

Daniel Gilman Johns Hopkins


Carnegie
Mellon IT Noyes, Milikan,
Hale Throop Institute

55 (5)

12
3
45
1

2
David Kirp Shakespeare, Einstein, and the Bottom Line

Devry
University, Phoenix UniversityJones International University

Devry
15 180


Virginia

Eliot
Johns Hopkins Gilman Harper

The Uses of the University Clark Kerr

20

50 100

endowment

Johns Hopkins

2020

56 (1)


1979
SAT 550

12

make a difference
difference

political science
pre-law

C 3.0

IBM 1977

57 (2)

COOL
ID ID cs.kaifulee
ps.kaifuleecu.kaifuleecu

BBS

9999
NO.1
Space Invader

9999
0
9999
9999 0
9999

9999
KFL
KFL

20
CS
58 (3)

30

3.26

4.0

1980

59 (4)

party

party

party

25
cream cheese

20
25