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"BUY"
Though the execution in Q2FY17 was slow due to heavy monsoon, we expect full fledged execution in H2FY17 will help SADBHAV to register robust
revenue growth. Reduced working capital from Irrigation project and repayment of loan from SIPL will strengthen companys balance sheet
position. SADBHAV is better placed to grab opportunities from upcoming government spending to boost infrastructure. We are keeping our
positive stance on stock. We maintain Buy rating for a target price of 315/- .......... ( Page :2-5)
BANKBARODA
"BUY"
Focus of the management on profitability has resulted in steady quarter this time. BoB has shown a sign of improvement in its profitability. In the
clean up exercise, BoB has recognised huge stress assets in its balance sheet. Going forward we expect the stress assets to decline significantly thus
resulting in credit cost to decline. However BoB needs to come out of the consolidation of advances and should grow its loan portfolio to further
support the operating profitability. Strong capitalization of 12.9% CRAR (Tier 1 at 10.6%) will help the bank to grow further without any near term
dilution. We recommend BUY with the target price of Rs 188. ....... ( Page : 6-10)
ASIANPAINT
"NEUTRAL"
Management remained silent on volume growth improvement (which indicates lower double digit volume growth going ahead) but did hint at
margin pressures. We do not see significant improvement in volume growth, margin risks (due to high input cost) and peak valuations (trades at
FY18 P/E of 45x) make the risk-reward unfavorable. We see downside risks to our estimates due to an unfavorable H2FY17 base with top line and
gross margins peaking out.It also expects paint companies to register flat growth in sales during Q3FY17 compared Q3FY16, following the
government's move to scrap old Rs 500 and 1,000 notes. While the month of October saw significant jump in sales during festive season,
November has seen a significant fall on account of the demonetization announcement.
While the paint industry is 80-85 per cent cash-driven with the paint retailers accepting only cash payments for the sales, is now shifting over to
digitized payments to keep the business going. We maintain Neutral rating with a target price of Rs.1015. ......................................................... (
Page : 11-12)
KEC
"HOLD"
Efficient working capital management boosted earnings and strengthened balance sheet position and we expect it to continue going forward.
Considering the ramp up in execution of substation (T&D) project, healthy SAE order book & margin level and huge potential in railway business
will help KEC to perform better in H2FY17. But considering the current macroeconomic condition we recommend HOLD on the stock with
unchanged target price of Rs. 164/-. ................................................ ( Page : 13-14)
KNRCON
"HOLD"
Going forward, we expect KNR to perform better based on strong execution of orders received in the last year and huge opportunities in terms of
new order intake. Considering a) companys strategic decision to exit from BOT assets and focus on EPC project to keep balance sheet assets light,
b) strong bid pipeline of 20 projects and robust order inflow during the H1FY17 will help KNR to register strong growth. Considering the current
uncertain macroeconomics we recommend HOLD on the stock with unchanged target price of Rs. 815/share.
......................................................... ( Page : 15-18)
BEML
"HOLD"
As the company is having healthy order book worth Rs 6500 cr, so going forward we expect the company to register decent topline as well as
bottom line. Increased road construction activity, Railway projects and work on dedicated freight corridors will drive demand growth in FY17E.
With respect to defense verticals the business will be back on track. Company guided Rs 3300 cr topline for FY17E but after seeing 1st and 2nd
quarter results we revised our revenue estimate from Rs 2900 cr to Rs 2500 cr and We expect decent growth in rest of the two quarters. We have
positive view on this stock in long term but due to below expected sales number this quarter we maintain our HOLD rating to the stock. We will
review target price post further clarity from management on near term business condition. ........................................................... ( Page : 19-22)
IRB
"HOLD"
IRB posted moderate set of numbers in Q2FY17 due to heavy and extended monsoon. But current order book provides strong construction revenue
visibilities going forward. We expect better construction revenue growth in H2FY17 based on ramp up of Agra-Etwah project and robust growth in
toll collection. Company will resume its toll collection operations from 24th November. But considering the current volatile macro economy
condition we recommend HOLD on the stock and we will review our rating in January once we have more clear view on macro economy.
............................................... ( Page : 23 - 26)
Narnolia Securities Ltd
897
BUY
2-Dec-16
SADBHAV ENG.
Result Update
CMP
277
315
14%
-
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
Market Data
BSE Code
532710
NSE Symbol
SADBHAV
369/198
4,753
4923
8087
1Month
3 Month
1Year
3.1
8.1
-4.3
3.9
-21.9
-23.5
Promoters
Public
3QFY16 4QFY15
47%
53%
47%
53%
47%
53%
Sadbhav reported subdued numbers for the Q2FY17 due to heavy monsoon
and project related issues. The company suffered Rs. 70 Cr of revenue loss
on Irrigation project in MP on account of heavy monsoon,Rs.30 Cr of
revenue loss on two road project in Karnataka due to Kaveri Water dispute
and around Rs. 35 Cr of revenue loss in BCCL (Mining) project because of
service tax related issues. Top line de grew by the 17.5% YoY to Rs. 616 Cr
as compared to Rs. 746 Cr in 2QFY16. EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs.
65 Cr as against Rs. 81 Cr in 2QFY16, 19% down YoY with similar margin.
PAT de grew by 33% YoY to Rs. 19 Cr vs Rs.28 Cr in same period last year.
Higher 80 IA benefit led to NIL effective tax rate for the quarter and it will be
continue for the next 3 quarters based on higher revenue contribution from
road EPC and irrigation projects. Current order book stands at Rs. 9363 Cr
(including Orders won after September) which provides strong revenue
visibility going forward.
Highway & Road drives the revenue growth:Currently 5 EPC projects are under execution and another 4 HAM project
will come under execution by January. 4 out of 5 projects have achieved
financial closure and expecting to get appointment date by January, 2017.
The company has already started working on these projects before getting
appointment date and expects to book Rs.300 Cr (approx.) revenue in
Q4FY17.Irrigation projects in MP lost one and half month due to heavy
monsoon but now all the projects are on track and management is confident
to complete it quickly. Blocked working capital will be released and it will be
used to fund working capital requirements on ongoing EPC projects.
Management is in talk with BCCL to settle down services tax issues in
mining and expects Rs. 350 Cr of annual revenue from mining. EPC (Road
& Irrigation) dominated revenue in H2FY17 will boost the bottom line by way
of 80 IA tax benefit.
Outlook and Valuation
Company Vs NIFTY
120
SADBHAV
NIFTY
110
100
90
80
70
In Rs. Cr
60
50
40
Sandip Jabuani
Financials
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
P/E
2160
394
7
18.2%
313.2
2733
436
44
15.9%
53.1
3447
580
-175
16.8%
-15.2
3878
803
-47
20.7%
-56.9
4487
929
67
20.7%
75.1
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
sandip.jabuani@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Concall Update : Current Order stands at 9363 Cr (3128 Cr received after September)
Maintain Order intake of Rs. 5000-7000 Cr in FY17
Revenue loss of Rs.100 Cr due to heavy monsoon and 30 Cr on BCCL services tax issue
Growth will led by highway & construction segment for the next 2-3 years
Debtors will come down (1000 cr approx. on standalone books)as the money release from EPC project
Loan outstanding to SIPL is Rs. 280 cr and mgmt expecting to come down below 100 Cr
Rs. 320 Cr of mobilization advance on HAM project yet to receive
Achieved financial closure of 4 HAM projects and expect to get appointment date in December and commencement of work in
January.
Maintain revenue guidance of Rs. 3600-3700 Cr for FY17
Services tax issue at BCCL project will settle down by December.
No impact of demonetization on execution of the project
Tax rate will be NIL for next 3 quarter because of higher revenue from road EPC project. (all EPC project is eligible for 80 IA
benefit)
Segmental Order Book
BOT
EPC
Irrigation
Minning
10,000
9,000
2,153
8,000
7,000
2,269
2,724
2,728
2,392
2,273
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
1,872
1,345
1,919
2,226
1,136
2,061
1,975
1,733
2,015
1,097
1,982
2,193
1,811
1,749
3,021
1,442
2,851
2,567
2QFY15
3QFY15
Order book
9,500
4QFY15
1,836
3,995
1,187
3,837
3,477
3,054
1,404
990
573
233
174
156
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
1QFY15
1,276
4,430
2,000
1,000
1,902
1,644
Book to Bill
3.79
4.00
3.50
9,000
8,941
2.76
3.00
2.35
8,500
8,000
2.50
2.00
8,200
1.50
7,500
7,487
7,000
1.00
0.50
6,500
FY14
FY15
FY16
Segmental Revenue
BOT
EPC
Irrigation
Minning
Power Generation
1,200
1,000
1
1
800
166
2
600
1
68
400
200
138
72
35
147
199
100
31
132
100
132
461
428
204
168
160
470
374
407
424
402
111
33
1QFY17
2QFY17
1QFY15
2
90
449
300
280
201
189
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
Toll Collection
Toll Collection
250
200
150
155
139
139
147
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
165
162
1QFY16
2QFY16
214
200
208
4QFY16
1QFY17
Managment Expecting
toll revenue will grow
25-30% CAGR
173
100
50
4QFY15
3QFY16
EBITDA
2QFY17
EBITDA M
120
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
100
10%
11%
80
10%
10%
10%
60
10%
10%
9%
40
9%
20
72
60
78
96
89
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
81
74
81
87
65
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
9%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
FY14
2.9
82.4
0.7
24%
RATIOS
FY15
FY16
-10.2
-2.7
89.6
104.8
0.8
0.8
-8%
-30%
FY17E
3.9
107.9
0.8
21%
53.1
1.9
0.45%
-15.2
1.7
0.53%
-56.9
1.5
0.53%
75.1
2.7
0.28%
4%
5%
-11%
4%
-3%
5%
4%
6%
0.3
76.9
29.0
51.8
3.88
0.3
72.4
30.2
50.1
4.07
0.2
77.4
18.9
37.5
4.49
0.3
77.0
18.9
38.0
4.25
INCOME STATEMENT
FY14
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)2733
Other Income
30
Total Revenue
2762
COGS
2064
GPM
1
Other Expenses
153
EBITDA
436
EBITDA Margin (%)
16%
Depreciation
127
EBIT
309
Interest
449
PBT
-110
Tax
-14
Tax Rate (%)
13%
Reported PAT
44
Dividend Paid
11
No. of Shares
15
FY15
3447
44
3491
2576
1
164
580
17%
219
361
615
-210
34
-16%
-175
14
17
FY16
3878
45
3922
2730
1
192
803
21%
287
516
726
-165
17
-10%
-47
14
17
FY17E
4487
45
4532
0
0
0
929
21%
304
625
581
89
21
24%
67
0
0
EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
FY14
15
1235
1250
4848
468
36
6098
6007
1
576
128
388
174
548
7871
FY15
17
1520
1537
6256
411
24
7793
9598
1
684
205
473
271
760
11933
FY16
17
1781
1798
8069
601
23
9867
13527
0
822
126
399
357
477
15809
FY17E
17
1848
1865
7869
601
23
9734
11805
1
951
0
461
332
435
14132
Souce: Eastwind/Company
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
OP/(Loss) before Tax
26
-233
-165
89
Depreciation
130
223
287
304
Direct Taxes Paid
56
68
17
21
Operating profit before working
469capital changes
596
890
974
CF from Op. Activity
786
385
2130
657
0
0
20
0
Capital expenditure on fixed assets
225 including
158 capital 7300
advances and
1417
capital work-in-p
CF from Inv. Activity
(1441)
(1357)
9330
1417
Repayment of Long Term Borrowings
0
0
0
0
Interest Paid
455
615
726
581
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
11
13
14
0
CF from Fin. Activity
706
1037
1580
(781)
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
52
64
13041
1294
Add: Opening Balance
58
110
205
126
Closing Balance
110
174
13245
1420
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company
BUY
2-Dec-16
BANK OF BARODA
Steady Quarter, Focus on Profitability
Result Update
CMP
162
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
188
16%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
532134
BANKBARODA
179/104.
37235
1461
8192
Stock Performance
1Month
Absolute
Rel.to Nifty
9.6
13.0
3 Month
(3.4)
(7.8)
1Year
4.8
1.3
Promoters
Public
Others
Total
1QFY17 4QFY16
59.2
40.8
59.2
40.8
59.2
40.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
Company Vs NIFTY
120
BANKBARODA
NIFTY
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Operating Profit grew by 15% YoY on the back of Net Interest Income
turning positive and registering the growth of 6% YoY. Operating expenses
grew by 12% YoY which led the C/I ratio to stable at 46% YoY. Other
income grew by 36% YoY backed by treasury income. Core fee income
picked up by 13% YoY.
NIM improved by 21 bps YoY to 2.29% largely led by improvement in both
domestic as well as overseas NIM of 16 bps and 13 bps YoY respectively.
This improvement in NIM was backed by decline in cost of fund which was
supported by healthy CASA and shedding of high cost of deposits.
Overseas NIM improved on the back of focus on high yielding assets.
Management has targeted the domestic NIM of 3% and overseas NIM more
than 1%.
Stress Assets Decline
Slippages were restricted to Rs 2861 Cr against Rs 6096 Cr on 1Q FY17
giving a sign of improvement from this quarter. Healthy recovery & upgradation has also helped to decline the net NPA at Rs 42949 Cr against Rs
42992 Cr QoQ. Recovery & Up-gradation increased by 8% QoQ. The GNPA
and NNPA of the bank stand at 11.35% and 5.46% against 11.15% and
5.73% in previous quarter. PCR improved to 63% against 60% QoQ.
Standard restructured assets now stands at Rs 13860 Cr which declined by
25 QoQ. This quarter management invoked an SDR of Rs 2370 Cr and
there was no 5/25 refinance. These all give us comfort on stress assets
which seems to improve further going forward. However management has
maintained their stance on the earlier guidance of GNPA at RS 45000 Cr to
Rs 50000 Cr in FY17.
Advances Consolidate
As the focus of the management is on profitability, balance sheet continues
to be on consolidation phase. Thus, resulting decline in advances by 15%
YoY. Domestic advances declined by 11% and overseas advances declined
by 22% YoY. As a strategy on overseas portfolio, management has shifted
focused towards higher yielding assets i,e. local credit and syndicated
loans. Buyers credit which comprise low yield will decline further. Corporate
portfolio declined by 10% YoY. Home loan portfolio increased by 12% YoY.
However the loan growth must pick up for the further improvement in
operating profitability.
80
DEEPAK KUMAR
Deepak.kumar@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
BANKBARODA
Concall Highlights:
>> Deacceleration of international portfolio was due to shed in low yield assets.
>> Out of Rs 45000 Cr high cost of deposits, 90% is already shed and rest will be done in 3Q FY17.
>> International cost of deposits has gone up due to LIBOR effect.
>> Efforts are to remix the portfolio towards higher yielded assets in overseas market. Focus on local credit and syndicated
loans which gives yield of 3.6% as compared to 1.2% on buyers credit. Buyers credit are consistently deacreasing.
>> In 2 days following the demonitization BoB has collected Rs 11500 Cr of which Rs 9500 Cr has gone into CASA.
>> Management holds the earlier guidance of slippages. Target the NNPA of less than 2% in FY19-20.
>> Due RBI guidelines on ratings of corporate exposure of above Rs 100 Cr, management expects deceleration in capital.
>> Targeting domestic NIM of 3% and overseas NIM of 1%- 1.2%.
>> CASA target of 35%.
>> Target to grow at a CAGR of 12%-15% from FY14 numbers over the 3 years period.
(Rs in Crore)
Quarterly Performance
Financials
Interest Inc.
Interest Exp.
NII
Other Income
Total Income
Ope Exp.
PPP
Provisions
PBT
Tax
Net Profit
2QFY15
10826
7425
3401
992
4393
1990
2403
888
1515
411
1104
3QFY15
10718
7432
3286
1090
4376
2037
2339
1262
1077
743
334
4QFY15
10762
7590
3172
1295
4467
1774
2694
1818
876
278
598
1QFY16
11276
7817
3460
967
4427
2225
2202
600
1602
550
1052
2QFY16
11156
7912
3244
1144
4389
2051
2337
1892
445
321
124
3QFY16
10614
7909
2705
1113
3818
2114
1704
6165
-4460
-1118
-3342
4QFY16
11014
7684
3330
1775
5105
2533
2572
6858
-4285
-1055
-3230
1QFY17
10434
7062
3371
1444
4815
2146
2669
2004
665
242
424
2QFY17
10485
7059
3426
1561
4988
2297
2690
1796
894
342
552
YoY %
-6%
-11%
6%
36%
14%
12%
15%
-5%
101%
7%
344%
QoQ%
0%
0%
2%
8%
4%
7%
1%
-10%
34%
42%
30%
Profitability Metrix
Ratios
Yield On Advances
Cost of Deposits
NIM% (Overall)
NIM% (Domestic)
NIM% (Overseas)
NII Growth %
C/I Ratio
Other Inc./Net Inc. %
Tax %
PAT to Total Income%
2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 YoY(bps) QoQ(bps)
8.4
8.1
7.7
7.9
7.6
7.0
6.9
7.2
7.3
(0.35)
0.03
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.8
(0.26)
0.11
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.1
1.7
2.2
2.2
2.3
0.21
0.06
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.1
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.16
0.05
1.2
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.13
17.5
7.5
1.5
3.9
(4.6)
(17.7)
5.0
(2.6)
5.6
10.20
8.16
45.3
46.6
39.7
50.3
46.7
55.4
49.6
44.6
46.1
(0.69)
1.50
22.6
24.9
29.0
21.8
26.1
29.1
34.8
30.0
31.3
5.24
1.31
27.1
69.0
31.7
34.3
72.0
25.1
24.6
36.3
38.3
(33.78)
1.93
25.1
7.6
13.4
23.8
2.8
(87.5)
(63.3)
8.8
11.1
8.23
2.27
BANKBARODA
Outlook & Valuation:
Focus of the management on profitability has resulted in steady quarter this time. BoB has shown a sign of improvement in its
profitability. In the clean up exercise, BoB has recognised huge stress assets in its balance sheet. Going forward we expect the
stress assets to decline significantly thus resulting in credit cost to decline. However BoB needs to come out of the
consolidation of advances and should grow its loan portfolio to further support the operating profitability. Strong capitalization of
12.9% CRAR (Tier 1 at 10.6%) will help the bank to grow further without any near term dilution. We recommend BUY with the
target price of Rs 188.
Other income Break Up
>>Commission, Exchange,
Brokerage
>>Incidental Charges
>>Other Miscellaneous
Income
>>FX
Profits (Treasury)
Total Fee-Based Income
Trading Gains
Recovery from PWO
Total Other Income
(Rs in Crore)
2QFY15
333
104
93
252
782
179
31
992
Yield On Advances
3QFY15
373
79
106
253
811
244
36
1090
4QFY15
429
100
101
244
874
360
61
1295
Cost of Deposits
1QFY16
346
79
94
278
797
157
13
967
2QFY16
361
95
131
253
841
224
79
1144
3QFY16
339
91
128
241
799
289
24
1112
NIM
4QFY16
454
116
111
481
1162
509
104
1775
1QFY17
339
106
139
264
848
557
39
1444
NII Growth %
10.0
20.0
8.0
15.0
6.0
10.0
4.0
5.0
2.0
(5.0)
2QFY17
372
148
155
273
948
546
68
1562
YoY%
3%
55%
18%
8%
13%
144%
-14%
37%
QoQ%
10%
40%
12%
3%
12%
-2%
74%
8%
C/I Ratio
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
(10.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)
10.0
-
BANKBARODA
Assets Quality Performance
GNPA (Rs)
GNPA %
NNPA (Rs)
NNPA %
Slippages (Rs)
Recovery & Upgradation
Gross Restr. Assets (Rs)
PCR %
2QFY15
13058
3.32
6705
3QFY15
15492
3.85
8291
4QFY15
16261
3.72
8069
1QFY16
17274
4.13
8470
2QFY16
23710
5.56
12798
3QFY16
38934
9.68
21806
4QFY16
40521
9.99
19406
1QFY17
42992
11.15
20783
2QFY17
42949
11.35
19342
YoY%
81%
1.04
51%
QoQ%
0%
0.02
-7%
1.74
1853
513
23371
65
2.11
2852
380
23100
62
1.89
1789
354
31572
65
2.07
1908
827
31257
65
3.08
6962
414
30170
58
5.67
15785
325
30716
53
5.06
5932
3200
29004
60
5.73
6096
2482
29809
60
5.46
2861
2687
28464
63
0.77
-59%
550%
-6%
0.08
-0.05
-53%
8%
-5%
0.05
Specific PCR %
GNPA %
NNPA %
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
-
Advances
Net Advances (Rs in Cr)
Advances Growth YoY %
>> Growth QoQ %
2QFY15
385766
13.51
1.05
3QFY15
393630
11.69
2.04
4QFY15
428065
7.82
8.75
1QFY16
408388
6.97
-4.60
2QFY16
414900
7.55
1.59
3QFY16
384272
-2.38
-7.38
4QFY16
383770
-10.35
-0.13
1QFY17
362766
-11.17
-5.47
2QFY17
354150
-14.64
-2.38
Advances Break Up %
>>Domestic
>>International
2QFY15
67.08
32.92
3QFY15
66.28
33.72
4QFY15
68.18
31.82
1QFY16
67.54
32.46
2QFY16
66.92
33.08
3QFY16
67.45
32.55
4QFY16
68.60
31.40
1QFY17
69.09
30.91
2QFY17
69.60
30.40
Deposits
Deposits (Rs in Cr)
>> Growth YoY %
>> Growth QoQ %
CASA % (Domestic)
CASA Growth YoY %
>> Growth QoQ %
Credit Deposit Ratio
2QFY15
566926
16.91
2.77
31.89
15.91
6.78
68.05
3QFY15
564600
12.07
-0.41
32.42
12.93
0.75
69.72
4QFY15
617560
8.55
9.38
33.01
11.25
9.27
69.32
1QFY16
593087
7.51
-3.96
31.89
10.76
-5.78
68.86
2QFY16
612458
8.03
3.27
31.95
4.11
0.37
67.74
3QFY16
589687
4.44
-3.72
29.97
-5.11
-8.17
65.17
4QFY16
574038
-7.05
-2.65
33.57
-7.14
6.93
66.85
1QFY17
562174
-5.21
-2.07
33.83
-1.16
0.29
64.53
2QFY17
567531
-7.34
0.95
34.23
1.72
3.29
62.40
BANKBARODA
Financials Snap Shot
(Rs in Crore) RATIOS
FY15
FY16 Business Ratios
FY13
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
26,611
28,657
31,669
30,700
Credit-Deposit(%)
69.3
69.8
69.3
66.9
Income on Investments
7,888
9,294
10,604
11,334
CASA % (Domestic)
30.4
31.8
33.0
33.6
1,538
1,671
1,718
1,470
Efficiency Ratios
Others
FY14
404
841
924
2,295
22.0
23.5
22.6
26.4
36,442
40,463
44,915
45,799
16.3
17.7
20.8
24.2
24,486
27,604
30,547
32,107
38.3
41.2
43.4
50.6
11,956
12,858
14,368
13,692
8.4
7.7
7.5
7.3
7.3
7.3
8.1
9.0
7.5
6.8
6.6
6.8
Other Income
4,511
5,555
5,449
5,992
Total Income
16,466
18,414
19,818
19,684
6,306
7,592
8,604
9,962
5.2
4.8
4.7
4.9
5.3
4.9
4.7
5.0
10,160
10,821
11,213
9,721
4,965
4,825
5,230
15,954
5,195
5,996
5,983
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.9
444
1,065
2,151
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
4,804
5,001
3,912
(5,068)
RoE %
16.1
14.4
9.7
-15.3
RoA %
0.9
0.8
0.5
-0.8
67.2
68.2
68.0
70.1
Provisions/PPP (%)
95.6
80.5
87.4
-256.0
27.4
30.2
27.5
30.4
8.6
17.8
35.9
18.9
Tax
Net Profit attributable to the group
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Profitability Ratio
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
423
431
444
462
32859
37416
41574
42041
Deposits
482639
579997
629981
586690
Borrowings
26553
36976
35502
33845
GNPA (%)
2.40
2.94
3.72
9.99
16805
21136
26290
27947
GNPA(Rs)
7,983
11,876
16,261
40,521
559388
676114
733977
691179
NNPA (%)
1.28
1.52
1.89
5.06
NNPA (Rs)
4,192
6,035
8,069
19,406
68.24
Capital
14151
19445
23557
22811
PCR (%)
114911
128074
114188
Investments
125617
122113
130246
128894
Advances
333625
403715
435415
391486
Fixed Assets
2550
2849
2978
6359
Other Assets
9894
13081
13706
27441
Total Assets
559388
676114
733977
691179
65.45
64.99
60.06
22,553
31,572
29,004
13.3
12.3
12.6
13.2
10.1
9.3
9.9
10.8
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.4
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company
10
Neutral
Asian Paints Ltd.
1-Dec-16
View & Valuations :
Company Update
CMP
970
Target Price
1015
1100
Upside
5%
NA
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
500820
ASIANPAINT
1230/825
93,027
140.4
Av. Volume(,000)
Nifty
8224.5
Stock Performance
1Month
1Year
YTD
Absolute
-8.7
12.6
17.9
Rel.to Nifty
-5.3
8.2
13.0
Promoter
52.8
52.8
52.8
Public
Others
Total
47.2
47.2
47.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
Company Vs NIFTY
150
ASIANPAINT
NIFTY
140
130
120
110
100
90
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
80
bhabani.dehury@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
11
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
3779
58
3837
2032
247
4160
36
4196
2200
247
3971
34
4005
2027
277
880
3159
621
71
550
9
598
184
415
912
3359
801
73
728
8
756
229
527
964
3268
704
75
628
15
648
225
422
Q2FY16
16.4%
14.6%
11.0%
Q2FY16
53.8%
6.5%
0.0%
23.3%
1QFY15
Q3FY16
19.2%
17.5%
12.7%
Q3FY16
52.9%
5.9%
0.0%
21.9%
2QFY15
Q4FY16
17.7%
15.8%
10.6%
Q4FY16
51.0%
7.0%
0.0%
24.3%
3QFY15
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
4082
72
4154
1919
277
445
621
3262
820
85
735
6
800
260
540
Q1FY17
4232
79
4312
2088
279
469
683
3519
713
84
629
6
702
221
481
Q2FY17
20.1%
18.0%
13.2%
Q1FY17
YoY
3.7%
10.0%
3.8%
8.8%
0.7%
5.5%
10.1%
7.9%
-13.1%
-1.3%
-14.4%
-5.0%
-12.3%
-15.2%
-10.9%
12.0%
37.6%
12.4%
2.7%
13.3%
14183
170
14353
7971
907
-22.3%
11.4%
14.8%
19.0%
14.3%
-34.5%
17.3%
20.2%
16.0%
3069
11947
2235
266
1969
35
2104
650
1395
QoQ
YoY
47.0%
6.8%
10.9%
15.2%
4QFY15
QoQ
49.3%
6.6%
11.1%
16.1%
1QFY16
QoQ
42 Bps
30 Bps
39 Bps
YoY
Q3FY16
FY15
FY15
15.8%
13.9%
9.8%
FY15
56.2%
6.4%
0.0%
21.6%
Q4FY16
FY16
15843
213
16056
8049
990
1571
2463
13074
2769
276
2494
41
2666
844
1779
FY16
17.5%
15.7%
11.2%
FY16
YoY
11.7%
25.7%
11.9%
1.0%
9.1%
-19.7%
9.4%
23.9%
3.6%
26.6%
17.0%
26.7%
30.0%
27.5%
YoY
172 Bps
185 Bps
139 Bps
YoY
Q2FY17
Volume Growth ( % )
11%
10%
3%
4%
12%
5%
15%
13%
11%
12%
Realization Growth (%)
7%
6%
3%
3%
-4%
-1%
-1%
-1%
1%
0%
Sales Growth (%)
18%
17%
6%
7%
8%
4%
14%
12%
13%
12%
Crude Price in USD
109.8
102.1
76.0
54.0
62.1
50.0
43.4
34.4
45.5
45.8
(Source:
Company/Eastwind)
Key Conference call Highlights :
Double digit volume growth in decorative business in Q2FY17, but, a prolonged monsoon did affect demand in West and Central
India.
Rural India still continues to grow faster than urban India. South India, post floods, has picked up. Hence, North and South have
been growing at similar pace. Overall retail demand has improved after monsoon eased out.
No price revision this quarter. Asian Paints will closely monitor movement of input prices and GST rate before deciding on price
revision, if any.
271bps QoQ dip in gross margin was purely owing to increase in raw material cost.
Good demand in auto OEM and general industrial business segment led to improved performance of automotive coatings JV. In the
industrial coatings JV, the industrial liquid paints segment continued to grow well.
Home improvement delivered good top line due to network expansion and new product launches. Good improvement in Ess Ess
and Sleek business. New products launches under Ess Ess have resulted in better traction.
International business performed well aided by good growth in markets like Nepal, UAE and Fiji. Moderate improvement in
Ethiopia too, but it was affected by adverse forex fluctuations.
In the standalone business, the company will incur capex of INR6bn in FY17 for its Mysore and Vizag facilities. Of this, capitalisation
will be INR2bn in FY17. Full Vizag and Mysore plants will be capitalised in FY18.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
12
HOLD
30-Nov-16
KEC International
Result Update
CMP
124
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
165
33%
-
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
532714
KEC
164/97
3,597
142197
7966
1Month
3 Month
1Year
6.8
-7.5
-1.0
-7.7
-17.0
1.5
Promoters
Public
51%
49%
1QFY17 4QFY16
51%
49%
51%
49%
In Q2FY17 railway segment has shown strong revenue growth of 30% and
order intake increased around 6 times compared to Q2FY16 with increased
margin. Margin will further improve as the quantum of revenue increases.
We expect continuing healthy ordering activity from SEBs (Karnataka,
Tamilnadu, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Telenga).EHV
cable and solar cable is key growth drivers for the cable business going
forward. KEC is well on track to achieve its revenue guidance based on
ramp up in execution of back ended substation project worth Rs. 1500-1700
Cr during H2FY17.
Reduction in Debt through efficient working capital management:KEC has reduced gross debt by Rs. 300 cr with the help of better AR
management (reduction of Rs 485 Cr). Working capital days improved to
229 days from 246 days. Management expects to release retention money
from project in Saudi as project gets completed in next 2-3 months. Hence,
it will lead to further reduction in working capital days. Company aims to
bring it down to 180 days by the year end.
Outlook and Valuation
Company Vs NIFTY
120
KEC
NIFTY
110
100
90
80
70
In Rs. Cr
60
50
40
Sandip Jabuani
Financials
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
EV/EBITDA
6979
381
65
5.5%
5.4
7902
493
67
6.2%
4.5
8468
512
161
6.0%
5.1
8516
679
192
8.0%
5.4
9369
796
287
8.5%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
sandip.jabuani@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
13
Order Intake
Book to bill
1500
1000
500
-5%
-13%
-37%
-7%
-8%
-33%
3103
10785
10,403
9,487
9,351
9,872
10,537
9,508
8,770
9,320
10,325
37%
2000
2825
3
4,000
42%
1877
63%
2500
2246
6,000
3000
1506
106%
3085
Growth YoY%
3500
2423
8,000
1100
10,000
2,000
Order Intake
1892
12,000
2808
Order Book
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
14
Segmental Revenue
EBITDA margin
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
8.7%
7.3%
5.9%
5.6%
7.5%
7.7%
7.8%
8.4%
8.7%
Managment guided
8.5% EBIDTA margin
for the FY17
5.1%
1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2.8%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
15
FY13
2.5
44.6
1.4
55%
RATIOS
FY14
FY15
2.6
6.3
46.3
51.7
0.6
0.7
23%
11%
FY16
7.4
58.8
2.2
30%
23.3
1.3
2.38%
26.0
1.5
0.87%
12.8
1.5
0.88%
16.4
2.1
1.82%
6%
18%
6%
24%
12%
20%
13%
28%
1.1
151.0
37.7
129.0
0.62
1.1
175.9
45.0
148.4
0.51
1.1
166.1
38.1
143.3
0.55
1.0
192.6
37.8
126.0
0.40
INCOME STATEMENT
FY13
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)6979
Other Income
16
Total Revenue
6996
COGS
3836
GPM
1
Other Expenses
785
EBITDA
381
EBITDA Margin (%)
5%
Depreciation
56
EBIT
325
Interest
194
PBT
147
Tax
82
Tax Rate (%)
56%
Reported PAT
65
Dividend Paid
36
No. of Shares
26
FY14
7902
14
7916
4099
1
883
493
6%
71
423
263
173
88
51%
67
15
26
FY15
8468
146
8614
4566
1
917
512
6%
88
424
309
261
100
38%
161
18
26
FY16
8516
10
8527
4148
0
975
679
8%
88
592
277
325
133
41%
192
57
26
EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Balance Sheet
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
FY13
51
1096
1147
708
748
80
1855
1008
30
2887
156
2467
89
1101
6253
FY14
51
1140
1192
603
1207
73
1794
992
18
3808
144
3213
125
1374
7411
FY15
51
1278
1330
737
1308
70
2067
881
16
3853
206
3325
122
1668
7745
FY16
51
1460
1512
602
1723
66
2114
860
12
4495
111
2939
114
2151
8138
Souce: Eastwind/Company
FY16
325
88
135
853
(51)
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company
16
HOLD
29-Nov-16
KNR Construction
Result Update
CMP
720
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
815
640
13%
27%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
532942
KNRCON
819/408
2025
6937
8126
Absolute
Rel.to Nifty
1Month
1Year
YTD
-10.3
-2.7
2.6
10.3
13.9
12.4
Promoters
Public
1QFY17 4QFY16
58%
42%
61%
39%
61%
39%
Company Vs NIFTY
160
KNRCON
NIFTY
140
120
100
80
60
40
Sandip Jabuani
sandip.jabuani@narnolia.com
Financials
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
P/E
765
117
49
15.2%
5.1
895
131
60
14.7%
4.0
931
127
70
13.6%
17.1
995
174
126
17.5%
9.5
1521
234
24
15.4%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
17
Investment Argument : The ministry and NHAI has set a target of 25000 Km of road for FY17 on awarding
site and in terms of construction, NHAI is targeting to construction 8000 Km while the
Ministry is targeting 7000 Km
Company has taken strategic decision to exit from BOT asset to focus on EPC
projects, which will help company to keep balance sheet assets light. Post the recent
deal KNR debt on consolidated book will come down by 300 Cr.
Concall/ Managment Intreviwe Update :-
NHAI set to award 25000 km road project in FY17 as compare to 10000 km in FY16
KNR aims to take 1000-1500 cr of new road project in next 4-5 months
Marginal impact of demonization of currency on companys operation
Debt will be come down by Rs. 300 Cr on consolidated books post deal with Essel.
KNR infuse Rs.90 cr and Rs. 130 Cr in walayar project respectively in Q2FY17 and
H1FY17. Out of this promoter put Rs. 40 Cr and balance part was funded by parent
company.
Management maintains revenue guidance of Rs. 1200 Cr plus with 13.5-14.5% of EBITDA
Tax rate for the FY17 will be 8-10%
Company continues to have 80IA benefit on project received in FY17.Hence, FY18 tax
rate will be in range of 10-30% depending on composition of execution.
About the Company:KNR constructions Limited ( from know written as "KNRCL" ) is an ISO 9001:2000
Certified company and listed in Bombay StockExchange Limited (BSE) and National
Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE). KNRCL is a multidomain infrastructure project
development company providing (EPC) engineering, procurement and construction
services across various fast growing sectors namely roads & highways, irrigation and
urban water infrastructure management. Our project execution strength primarily is in
road transportation engineering projects namely construction and maintenance of roads,
highways, flyovers and bridges wherever integral to the projects undertaken.
Timely completion
capabilities will help
KNR construction to
grow higher in
competitive
scenario, comapny
earn bonus of 6Cr on
early completation of
Penchalakona
Yerpedu project.
18
(In Rs.
Road Sector
Irrigation
4,500
3,899
4,000
3,479
3,605
3,412
3,500
3,407
3,528
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,256
1,141
1,123
730
1,000
500
72
59
62
62
60
59
680
57
EBIDTA %
30%
PAT %
25%
25%
20%
21%
18%
14%
14%
10%
9%
4QFY15
1QFY16
14%
15%
10%
8%
20%
18%
15%
15%
14%
15%
10%
10%
1QFY17
2QFY17
7%
5%
0%
2QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
Provisional Completion Certificate for 75% of Project length has been issued for the
project on 3rd June
2016
Muzaffarpur is an important place for wholesale cloth trade and the largest city of
northern Bihar while Barauni city is situated on holy river Ganga and also an
important industrial city of Bihar having major industrial units such as IOC refinery,
Barauni Thermal Power Plant, Hindustan Fertilizers Corporation and Barauni Dairy
19
FY13
17.4
164.9
1.2
7%
RATIOS
FY14
FY14
21.5
24.8
217.2
280.4
1.2
1.2
5%
5%
FY16
44.9
247.8
1.2
3%
5.1
0.5
1.31%
4.0
0.4
1.38%
17.1
1.5
0.28%
11.3
2.0
0.23%
11%
10%
10%
7%
9%
5%
18%
9%
0.7
55.3
28.7
53.3
0.56
0.6
30.8
27.4
31.8
0.85
0.5
43.2
28.1
29.6
0.91
0.5
49.4
34.0
43.6
0.82
INCOME STATEMENT
FY13
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)765
Other Income
18
Total Revenue
783
COGS
601
GPM
1
Other Expenses
18
EBITDA
117
EBITDA Margin (%)
15%
Depreciation
56
EBIT
61
Interest
12
PBT
67
Tax
16
Tax Rate (%)
23%
Reported PAT
49
Dividend Paid
3
No. of Shares
3
FY14
895
17
912
707
1
21
131
15%
59
73
18
72
7
9%
60
3
3
FY14
931
13
944
723
1
43
127
14%
55
72
13
71
0
0%
70
3
3
FY16
995
42
1038
663
1
111
174
18%
48
126
56
112
-21
-19%
126
3
3
EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
FY13
28
436
464
80
64
0
544
406
5
116
23
112
115
220
1125
FY14
28
583
611
343
50
0
954
858
2
75
57
78
57
117
1454
FY14
28
760
788
672
88
0
1460
1343
4
110
44
75
42
174
2012
FY16
28
669
697
631
106
0
1328
1263
0
135
45
119
71
260
2051
Souce: Eastwind/Company
FY13
FY14
OP/(Loss) before Tax
67
72
Depreciation
56
59
Direct Taxes Paid
31
24
Operating profit before working capital changes
CF from Op. Activity
3
239
FY14
71
55
33
FY16
112
48
21
66
285
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company
20
HOLD
28-Nov-16
BEML LTD.
Result Update
CMP
803
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
1240
54%
-
500048
BEML
1324.40/770.15
3,348
208
8114
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel.to Nifty
1Month
1Year
YTD
-11.7
-4.5
-42.4
-45.4
-5.7
-4.2
Promoter
Public
4QFY16
54.03
45.97
54.03
45.97
--
--
--
100
100
100
Total
Company Vs NIFTY
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
BEML
out of which Rs 1000 Cr will execute in FY17 and rest Rs 1000 Cr will be
executing in FY18E. In FY18E company is having another order worth Rs
2400 Cr. So, total order book in Metro is Rs 3500 Cr in FY18E.
54.03
45.97
Others
Management highlights:
NIFTY
Bibha Kashyap
bibha.kashyap@narnolia.com
Financials
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Rs in Cr
FY17E
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
P/E
2801
-49
-83
-1.7%
0.0
2904
115
6
4.0%
0.0
2802
70
6
2.5%
0.0
2978
129
53
4.3%
0.0
2521
145
69
5.7%
0.0
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
21
EBIDTA %
0.75
0.80
0.66
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.47
0.40 0.43
0.05 0.06 0.37
0.35
0.01 (0.00)
0.30
0.40
0.01
0.37
0.02
0.37
(0.00)
(0.01)
(0.07)
0.20
0.18
0.47
0.50
(0.09)
(0.13)
0.10
-
(0.25)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
(0.05)
(0.10)
(0.15)
(0.20)
(0.25)
(0.30)
Net Sales(Cr)
169
155
64
454
-115
346
1009
764
590
1279
-68
577
451
502
780
783
-24
-30
-55
-96
751
-11
-39
676
6
-26
598
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
PAT (Cr)
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
22
60%
52%
50%
38%
40%
41%
25%
30%
39%
32%
31%
24%
19%
28%
25%
39%
18%
16%
20%
10%
32%
36%
24%
15%
15%
14%
0%
18%
10%
13%
16%
12%
13%
10%
11%
Investment Arguments:
The approval for Tatra trucks has come through with delivery commencing from August 2015. The
order backlog of ~Rs11bn-12bn from Tatra is likely to get executed in 18-24 months. which will help
improve profitability of BEMLs defence business for FY16 &FY17.
All the three segments have done well especially on the defence side it is very good. It is very
satisfied and defence for the future is going to be much more exciting because of Make in India
campaign where management is expecting exciting opportunities, which are already up and running.
That should go very well in FY16-FY17.
Coal India, in its commentary, has stated its intent to spend Rs 1500 Cr -2000Cr annually on
machinery procurement including heavy equipment, dumpers, etc segments where BEML is the
market leader.
Key Risks:
Inventory obsolescence
Metro capex cycle recovery
Production Units:
23
FY14
1.5
506.8
3.0
200%
RATIOS
FY15
FY16
1.4
12.8
505.8
506.6
1.2
4.7
82%
37%
FY17E
16.5
518.5
4.7
28%
196.6
0.6
1.02%
759.6
2.2
0.11%
68.8
1.7
0.53%
55.5
1.8
0.51%
0%
2%
0%
1%
3%
3%
3%
4%
0.6
122.9
271.6
48.9
0.22
0.6
129.2
250.3
70.8
0.20
0.7
148.1
208.7
50.5
0.17
0.6
150.0
209.5
40.0
0.16
INCOME STATEMENT
FY14
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)2904
Other Income
64
Total Revenue
2967
COGS
1694
GPM
1
Other Expenses
373
EBITDA
115
EBITDA Margin (%)
4%
Depreciation
54
EBIT
60
Interest
111
PBT
13
Tax
4
Tax Rate (%)
29%
Reported PAT
6
Dividend Paid
12
No. of Shares
4
FY15
2802
60
2862
1564
1
393
70
2%
53
17
71
6
0
-8%
6
5
4
FY16
2978
39
3017
1703
1
373
129
4%
54
75
49
65
11
18%
53
19
4
FY17E
2521
26
2546
868
0
758
145
6%
46
99
0
125
25
20%
69
19
4
EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
Souce: Eastwind/Company
BALANCE SHEET
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
FY14
42
2039
2081
465
441
0
2546
686
135
977
18
389
284
2420
4770
FY15
42
2035
2077
414
178
0
2491
660
150
992
145
543
290
2148
4591
FY16
42
2068
2110
363
147
0
2472
657
59
1208
66
412
317
2157
4331
FY17E
42
2117
2159
345
101
0
2504
694
150
1036
81
276
281
2096
3961
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company
24
HOLD
24-Nov-16
186
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
NA
-
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
532947
IRB
269/177
6,544
384833
7966
1Month
3 Month
1Year
-23.2
-15.7
-20.6
-12.9
-25.3
-26.8
Promoters
Public
57%
43%
1QFY17 4QFY16
57%
43%
58%
42%
Company Vs NIFTY
120
IRB
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel.to Nifty
IRB reported 12.3% YoY growth in topline below than our expectation
(Estimate:- Rs. 1517 Cr) on account of muted revenue growth (7% vs 33%
our estimates) of construction segment due to heavy and extended
monsoon. EBITDA margin was improved by 220 bps to 54.9% because of
higher proportion of toll revenue. PAT de-grew by 5% YoY to Rs. 142 Cr as
compared to Rs. 150 Cr in same period last year on account of lower topline
and higher interest outgo.
NIFTY
110
100
90
80
70
In Rs. Cr
60
Financials
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
50
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
EV/EBITDA
3687
1633
557
44.3%
5.5
3732
1754
459
47.0%
6.5
3847
2212
543
57.5%
7.9
5130
2661
636
51.9%
7.2
5733
3113
756
54.3%
7.2
40
Sandip Jabuani
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
sandip.jabuani@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
25
Concall Highlights :-
InvIT Structure
26
Order Book
Order book
Book to bill
17
15
12
10
9,746
17,321
11,468
12,116
12,631
12,954
11,587
11,348
11,974
7,795
8,739
11
10
14
12
11,394
12
7,030
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
20
18
16
15
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
As % of Order Book
8%
13%
Yedeshi Aurangabad
Kaithal Rajasthan Border
6%
16%
2%
2%
Solapur Yedeshi
Sindhudurg Airport
Agra Etawah
Gulabpura -Chittorgarh
18%
18%
17%
Revenue Mix
1,200
70%
Construction
BOT Toll
EBITDA M
60%
1,000
56%
800
600
45%
50%
59%
58%
58%
57%
50%
53%
52%
56%
48%
51%
50%
40%
30%
400
755
569
913
601
978
593
808
524
703
476
613
524
516
503
510
483
477
435
606
431
598
320
591
315
690
277
200
20%
10%
0%
27
FY13
16.7
98.0
3.5
21%
RATIOS
FY14
FY15
13.8
15.4
107.1
124.1
5.9
4.7
42%
30%
FY16
18.1
137.4
4.7
26%
6.8
1.2
3.09%
7.5
1.0
5.66%
15.1
1.9
2.00%
12.9
1.7
2.01%
17%
11%
13%
9%
12%
10%
13%
10%
0.3
0.8
51.1
33.8
2.04
0.2
0.5
59.4
39.9
2.64
0.1
0.5
72.6
22.2
2.48
0.1
7.4
54.9
21.7
2.62
INCOME STATEMENT
FY13
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)3687
Other Income
130
Total Revenue
3817
COGS
1776
GPM
0
Other Expenses
122
EBITDA
1633
EBITDA Margin (%)
44%
Depreciation
442
EBIT
1192
Interest
615
PBT
707
Tax
153
Tax Rate (%)
22%
Reported PAT
557
Dividend Paid
117
No. of Shares
33
FY14
3732
121
3853
1650
0
148
1754
47%
477
1277
756
642
182
28%
459
194
33
FY15
3847
113
3960
1306
0
140
2212
57%
707
1505
931
686
144
21%
543
164
35
FY16
5130
124
5254
2054
0
170
2661
52%
853
1807
1063
868
232
27%
636
164
35
EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
FY13
332
2923
3256
6635
1271
33
9890
10425
35
8
1471
341
311
877
13214
FY14
332
3228
3561
9398
897
22
12959
13041
48
6
1501
408
289
879
15712
FY15
351
4009
4361
10804
631
19
15165
36599
80
5
1580
234
219
477
39393
FY16
351
4476
4827
12652
1189
16
17479
39169
78
104
1559
305
169
510
42181
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
OP/(Loss) before Tax
707
642
686
868
Depreciation
442
477
707
853
Direct Taxes Paid
242
232
216
312
Operating profit before working
1636capital changes
1749
2216
2719
CF from Op. Activity
1441
1656
1823
2342
0
0
1
0
Capital expenditure on fixed 2518
assets including
3002 capital2311
advances and
3161
capital work-in
CF from Inv. Activity
(2247)
(2743)
(2295)
(3175)
Repayment of Long Term Borrowings
363
888
794
1140
Interest Paid
613
740
1317
1435
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
119
194
78
254
CF from Fin. Activity
748
1274
474
667
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
(57)
186
2
(165)
Add: Opening Balance
355
257
443
445
Closing Balance
302
443
445
279
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
28
FY13
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)
3927
Other Income
66
Total Revenue
3992
COGS
2699
GPM
1
Other Expenses
307
EBITDA
357
EBITDA Margin (%)
9%
Depreciation
147
EBIT
209
Interest
42
PBT
234
Tax
51
Tax Rate (%)
22%
Reported PAT
170
Dividend Paid
22
No. of Shares
13
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
FY13
25
1560
1586
383
75
94
1968
1383
12
382
138
313
62
1
2991
FY14
FY15
FY16
25
25
50
1768
1883
2156
1793
1908
2206
521
358
262
92
117
96
105
110
116
2314
2266
2468
1385
1260
1272
7
14
16
572
648
667
165
174
207
467
571
599
60
63
61
55
157
172
3630
3446
3683
Souce: Eastwind/Company
FY13
13.4
125.4
1.8
13%
RATIOS
FY14
FY15
11.8
19.0
141.8
151.4
1.8
2.3
15%
12%
FY16
11.4
87.5
1.2
10%
8.6
0.9
1.52%
13.0
1.1
1.14%
16.6
2.1
0.74%
13.4
1.7
0.76%
11%
11%
8%
9%
13%
14%
13%
15%
1.3
35.5
1.5
29.1
0.24
1.3
1.6
1.5
42.9
42.0
42.8
1.2
1.1
1.1
35.1
37.0
38.4
0.29
0.19
0.12
Souce: Eastwind/Company
FY13
FY14
OP/(Loss) before Tax
234
196
Depreciation
147
175
Direct Taxes Paid
63
37
Operating profit before working
390 capital changes
389
CF from Op. Activity
323
311
FY15
317
157
48
466
430
FY16
353
153
89
529
448
29
Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of
the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any
action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly
available information, findings of our research wing East wind & information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of
any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to
assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates
and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or
otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and
other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned
in this report/message.