- Where do they aspire to travel to;
- What does the future hold;
- Are these travellers old or new tourists;
- Do they travel independently or use packaged tours;
- How do they differ from the traditional markets such as the US, UK,
Germany, France, etc.
- What are their preferred destinations and;
- What are their aspirational/dream destinations?
This innovative report reviews the factors that drove travel industry growth of traditional
markets (Europe, USA and Japan) and examines the extent to which the same factors are
at play in the emerging markets (such as economic prosperity, paid holidays and the
search for sun, sea and sand) and other contributing factors. The differences between the
maturing (Britain, Germany) and the Top Ten Emerging Markets are highlighted and the
future prospects and market peculiarities investigated.
From wowing them with technology, to capturing shopping spend and catering to
special cultural needs, Tourism Intelligence Internationals latest report on the Travel and
Tourisms Top Ten Emerging Markets tells you everything you need to do to understand
and woo these travel markets.
This report is a must read for those companies and countries interested in targeting these
important and growing Emerging Markets.
Our 300+ page Report, Travel and Tourisms Top Ten Emerging Markets is only
available only from Tourism Intelligence International.





 
 



 

 Tourism Intelligence International

Chapter 1

EXECUTIVE BRIEF

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1.1

Tourism Intelligence International

Introduction

With international travellers projected to almost

double by 2020 to approximately 1.6 billion, the
most significant increases are expected to take
place in markets like China, India and South-East
Asia. Eastern Europe completes this picture,
followed by the Latin American and finally
African markets. These markets are often referred
to as emerging markets.

Emerging markets to
contribute to future growth
of international travel

The term emerging markets was coined by the

World Bank more than a quarter of a century ago,
but it only started to become popular in the mid1990s. From a handful of such countries, mostly
in East Asia, the circle has gradually expanded to
include several countries in Latin America,
central and eastern Europe, and the Middle East,
as well as a few countries in Africa. Brazil,
Russia, India and China (informally referred to as
the BRIC countries), are among the largest of the
emerging markets that are expected to become the
giants of the twenty-first century.

Brazil, Russia, India and

China (BRIC) economies

Figure 1:1
Global Overview of Emerging Markets

Emerging markets

Developed markets

Source: Adapted from Morgan Stanley, 2008

2

Travel and Tourisms Top Ten Emerging Markets

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Many of these emerging markets are becoming

important outbound travel markets.
These
markets are backed by growing middle classes on
the one hand, and liberalising policies promoting
mobility, on the other. The domestic travel
potential of emerging markets in 2006 China
registered 1.6 billion trips and India 461 million
is a further proof of their long-term importance
for international tourism.

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Rise of the middle class in

emerging markets spurring
travel demand

Moreover, emerging markets will be very

important in the global travel and tourism context,
economically, demographically and culturally.
This report addresses the travel potential of travel
and tourisms top emerging markets:

Brazil

China

Eastern Europe
o Belarus
o Bulgaria
o Czech Republic
o Hungary
o Moldova
o Poland
o Romania
o Slovakia
o Ukraine

India

Russia

South Africa

United Arab Emirates
This Travel and Tourisms Top Emerging Market
Report from Tourism Intelligence International
addresses, investigates and explains key aspects
of these travel markets:

Size;

Travel and Tourisms Top Ten Emerging Markets

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Tourism Intelligence International

Importance;

Key driving forces for travel market growth;

What are the current and preferred
destinations for outbound travellers;

How do these travellers think, feel and
behave;

What do they do on holiday;

How do they plan and book travel;

What means do they use to travel to their
destinations;

How satisfied are they with the trips abroad;

What are their motives for travel;

What are the new travel markets for these new
travellers;

How much do they spend;

Where do they aspire to travel to;

What does the future hold;

Are these travellers old or new tourists;

Do they travel independently or use packaged
tours;

How do they differ from the traditional
markets such as the US, UK, Germany,
France, etc.

What are their preferred destinations; and

What
are
destinations.

their

aspirational/dream

1.2

Key Tourism Indicators

1.2.1

Outbound Travel

The tourism industry has been marked by rapid

and almost continuous expansion. Every year,
more and more people travel and the trend is set
to continue. From a mere 25 million travellers in
1950, there will be more than one and a half
billion travellers in 2020, predicts the World
Tourism Organization.

The tourism industry is

growing rapidly

Travel and Tourisms Top Ten Emerging Markets

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Table 1:1
Growth of International Tourist Arrivals 1950-2020

Year
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2020

Total International
Tourist Arrivals
(millions)
25
69
159
284
457
565
699
694
764
808
842
898
1,006
1,561

% Growth
174%
130%
4%
7%
3%
5%
-1%
10%
6%
4%
6%
44%
55%

Source: United Nations World Tourism Organization, 2007

The
most
significant
developments
in
international travel will undoubtedly come from
the emerging markets.
In 2006 the BRIC
markets, Eastern Europe and South Africa
accounted for approximately 23.3% of total
international arrivals and almost equalled the
combined number of outbound arrivals from
USA, Germany and UK. And what is more
astounding is that these markets will be the leaven
that will create continued growth in international
arrivals in the future.

Emerging markets will

drive future growth

China for instance has a population size of 1.3

billion citizens.
However, only 34 million
Chinese travelled abroad in 2006, which is less
than 3 percent. A similar story is painted when
we look at India. There were 8.3 million Indian

The sheer growth potential

is astounding

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outbound travellers in 2006 representing less than

1% of the Indian population. On the contrary, the
traditional markets are primarily saturated, with
the exception of USA. Germany for instance, one
of the most mature and experienced markets has a
travel propensity of almost 80 percent.
Figure 1:2
Outbound Arrivals from Selected Countries - 2006

Traditional markets will continue to dominate

market share. However, competing for these
markets will become more and more difficult as
the rate of growth of outbound travel slows. For
tourism businesses, significant growth will come
from the emerging markets.

Battle for the old but new

opportunities found in
emerging markets

Between 2003 and 2006, the average annual

growth rate for outbound arrivals from China was
an astounding 20 percent. India followed closely
behind with a whopping 16 percent. Brazil saw a
14% average annual growth rate for the same
period and Russia generated 12 percent. In
contrast, USA and the UK grew at an average
annual rate of 4% each. Germany actually saw a
decline of 2%. Clearly, the traditional markets
are mature and not much growth in the future can
be expected to come from them.

Faster growth in BRIC

economies

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Figure 1:3
Average Annual Growth Rates of Selected Countries (2003 2006)

Source: UNWTO, 2008

The chart in Figure 1:4 depicts the UNWTOs
predictions of future growth in the travel and
tourism industry. The source markets that will
generate the main growth will be Asia (primarily
China and India) and parts of Africa and South
America.
Eastern Europe and Russia will
generate moderate growth according to the
UNWTO. The least growth will come from the
traditional markets of Europe and North America.

Travel and Tourisms Top Ten Emerging Markets

Watch out for China, India

and Russia!

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Figure 1:4
Growth Expectations of Outbound Travel

1.2.2

Tourism Expenditure

The leading outbound market in terms of tourism

expenditure is the United States with US$104
billion, followed by Germany and the UK with
US$83 billion and US$78 billion, respectively.

USA still leads, followed by

Germany

The emerging markets are far behind in terms of

tourism expenditure. China leads with US$28
billion, Russia with US$19.6 billion and India
with US$9.2 billion.
Collectively, Eastern
Europe (excluding Moldova) generated US$21.6
billion in tourism expenditure. Poland and the
Czech Republic were in the lead in this region
with US$7.7 billion and US$2.8 billion
respectively.

China leads the emerging

markets, followed by Russia
and India

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Figure 1:5
Tourism Expenditure of Selected Countries - 2006

While tourism expenditure from the emerging

markets might seem low in comparison to the
main traditional markets, what needs to be
considered is that these markets are growing at a
phenomenal rate.

High rate of growth from

emerging markets

Brazil leads the way with 38% average annual

growth in tourism expenditure between 2003 and
2006. India was in second place with 28%
followed by China with 19 percent. The more
traditional markets showed lower growth rates
over the same period. The UK did pretty well
with 10% growth followed by USA and Germany
with 8% and 5% respectively. Still these rates
were considerably lower than the emerging
markets.

Brazil leads the way in

terms of growth followed by
India and China

Travel and Tourisms Top Ten Emerging Markets