Aagw2010 June 10 Andries Potgieter Spatial Production Analysis

Pathways to Food Security in eastern and
southern African through more Sustainable

Intensification of Maize-Legume based Farming
Systems (SIMLESA)
Spatial Production Analysis

Andries Potgieter, Peter Davis, Daniel Rodriguez
Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries
Overview
SIMLESA
Hot Spot Analysis
Water Use Efficiency
Decision Making & Systems Modelling
Tools
Complex Systems
Regional Commodity Forecasting
Insurance
Remote Sensing
Summary
© The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2009
NDVI AUC 1999,2000,2001
Inverse colours (blue low, red high)
SIMLESA
Sustainable intensification of maize-legume cropping
systems for food security in eastern and southern Africa
(Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique )
ACIAR funded project $20,000 over 4 years
Commissioned Organisation: CIMMYT
Australian Organisation: QLD Government
working together with many others…
Aim
Increase food security and incomes at household and regional levels and
economic development in eastern and southern Africa through improved
productivity from more resilient and sustainable maize-based farming systems.
Overall objective
Sustainably increase the productivity of selected maize-legume systems in
eastern and southern Africa by 30% from the 2009 average for each target
country by the year 2020, and at the same time reduce seasonal down-side
risks by 30%.
SRA Activity 1: Collection and compilation of spatial information

- Assist funding bodies and policy makers
- To derive maps of food insecurity & yield gaps that will have a high
impact from intervention and investment
Hot Spot Analysis
The objective of this work was to identify “hot spots” in south eastern
Africa where SIMLESA is likely to have the highest impact in terms of
relieving food security and poverty issues
Food Security
source: Lui et al & ©FAO

The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2009
Food Security
Ethiopia:Ethiopia:
Ethiopia:
Total FII vsProduction
PWoF
cereal) Time
(allPopulation
vs vs Time vs Time
Time
y = 4E+08x
Increase + 5E+09
in production
Food in
Increase Insecurity!R2 = 0.6909
population
90,000,000
50000000
12,000,000,000
45000000
80,000,000
10,000,000,000
(kg) Food
40000000
70,000,000
35000000
60,000,000
8,000,000,000
No. of without
People
30000000
50,000,000
No of Production
25000000
6,000,000,000
People
40,000,000
20000000
30,000,000
4,000,000,000
15000000
20,000,000
10000000
2,000,000,000 y = 409613x + 4E+07
10,000,000
5000000 R2 = 0.1615
0 0 0
19961 1996
1 19961997 2 1997
1 21997 3 31998
1998
2 1998 4 4 1999
1999
3 1999 55 2000
42000
2000 662001
52001
2001 772002
6 2002
2002 882003
7 2003 8 200492004
2004 10
9 2005
2005 11
10 2006
102005 2006
11
11
2006
Year
Year
Year
FII
PwoF Pop
Linear (FII)
(PwoF)
Prod Linear (Prod)
Hot Spot Analysis

Approach
- Yield gap (YG): potential for improvement in cropping systems

(www.harvestchoice.org)
- Food Insecurity Index (FII, supply & demand): potential impact of

improvement in food security (www.harvestchoice.org)
- Most critical regions (hot spots): the biggest (negative) number of FII
and the highest YG.
Hot Spots = f[FII, YG]
- Areas only suitable for agriculture production (Land use) were used
Hot Spot Analysis

- FII = [P – PoP*GR]/GR;
P is grain production (yield x area),
PoP is population (>2 & <1000 people/km^2),
GR represents the grain requirement/person/annum.
- Yield Gap (Maize, simulated) was calculated using difference between

low technology inputs (LI) (manure, manual labour etc.)
and high technology inputs (HI) (fertiliser, machinery etc.)
- Clusters were created using

- standardised data
- kmeans clustering
- ten classes: FII and YG within each country.

Hot Spot Analysis – landing areas
Hot Spot Analysis
Hot Spot Analysis
Hot Spot Analysis

Population change
(people/km2/year) from 2000 to
2005. Agricultural land use is
overlayed (hatched).
Water Use Efficiency (crop production / rainfall ; 1999-2001)
Australian WUE ≈ 15kg/ha/mm
Questions for modelling

••Is
•IsWhere
ititcontributing
contributingtoto
is the water runoff andbyerosion?
notdrainage?
deep used the crops?
And if
so, how much water is left in depth in the
soil profile after the harvest of maize?
• Can that water be harvested by a deep
rooted crop?
• How water harvesting, conservation
agriculture, and the use of N fertilisers can
help increase water productivity and reduce
unproductive losses?
Decision making and systems models

Food security & household livelihoods
Co-learning
Human dimensions
e.g. multiple objectives, risk behaviour, aspirations, culture
e.g. markets, policy,

Uncertainty (unknowns) climate change
Quantifiable / measurable
Risks (“known unknowns”) e.g. Climate

variability
Complicated system
Horses for Courses

Generic Region District Field Household
N calculator Soil water Soil water Stored water Multiple objectives
Fallow efficiency Crop inputs Crop inputs Crop inputs Cash
In-crop rainfall Land
In-crop rainfall In-crop inputs
ENSO Labour
SOI phase Real-time rainfall
SOI phase Water
Nutrients
Yield, Water
Crops & livestock
Water balance Stress, Area Yield Livelihoods
Yield
Complexity
Soil type District Soil type Field Farm livelihoods
Climate data, Crop
Phenology
Dynamic modelling
Oz-Wheat & Whopper

HowWet Remote Sensing
APSIM APSFarm
Cropper © The State of Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 2009
• Farmers are already adapting to change
• Determine optimum adaptation strategies through whole
farm models (e.g. APSFarm)
September 2006, Central Queensland Australia

Decision Making
Farm example in Ethiopia – dealing with complex systems
Resource flows
1 ha Nutrients, inputs & crop residues
Labour
Cash Services
Beans
Credit?
Maize
farmer’s
selected seed HOME
(Pioneer hybrid) Food
“…there is lack of improved seeds and

1 out of 4 years is a access to fertilisers and other inputs at
really bad season the time they are needed…”
Question for modelling (spatial & GIS)

How much, when and where seeds and fertilisers are going to be
needed this season across the targeted areas?
Can seasonal climate and CROP predictions help answer this
questions?
Regional Commodity Forecasting

Legend:
0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
NT 60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
QLD 90-100%
Legend:
WA 0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
SA 40-50%
50-60%
NT 60-70%
NSW
70-80%
80-90%
0 200
-
400 800 Kilometres
VIC
ACT
WA
QLD 90-100%
TAS SA
NSW
June Forecast 2006
ACT
VIC
Oct 2006 - Percentile

TAS
Crop Insurance
Primacy Insurance:
New product to hedge farmers’ risk
against crop losses due to water stress
within a growing season
Remote Sensing: Cropped Area (HANTS)
2005 2006
Cropping Intensity and Patterns (curve fitting)

Likely cropping
- Start, end & length of season

- Canopy vigour
- Cropping & land use patterns
- Trends in vegetation/agriculture
Conclusion
 Successfully derived “Landing areas” – SIMLESA highest impact in terms
of relieving food security and poverty
 Water Use Efficiency has raised more research questions. Most of these
will be addressed in the SIMLESA project – improved food security
Farming Systems are complex and needs a holistic & participatory decision
making approach
 Predictive technologies from other countries (e.g. Australia) could be

applied successfully to farming systems and regions in NE Africa
Insurance industry has taken up such technologies and successfully

implemented crop insurance product for farmers to hedge their production
risk
 Further research needs to be done on spatial production data for other

years.
Asante
thank you
Potgieter, AB, Apan, A, Hammer, G & Dunn, P 2010, 'Early-Season Crop Area Estimates for Winter Crops in NE Australia Using MODIS Satellite Imagery ',
ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing. Published.
Potgieter, A.B., Apan, A., Hammer, G. and Dunn, P., 2010. Estimating winter crop area across seasons and regions using time-sequential MODIS imagery.
International Journal of Remote Sensing, Accepted.
Potgieter, A, Apan, A, Dunn, P & Hammer, G 2007, 'Estimating Crop Area Using Seasonal Time Series of Enhanced Vegetation Index from MODIS Satellite
Imagery', Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, vol. 58, pp. 316-25.
Potgieter AB, Hammer GL, Doherty A (2006) Oz-Wheat: a regional-scale crop yield simulation model for Australian wheat. Queensland Department of Primary
Industries & Fisheries. Information Series No, QI06033, Brisbane, Australia. (ISSN 0727 - 6273).
Potgieter AB, Hammer GL, deVoil P (2005) A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia. Agriculture and Forest
Meteorology 132, 143-153.
Potgieter, A.B, Hammer, G.L., Meinke, H., Stone, R.C. and Goddard, L., 2005. Three Putative Types of El Nino Revealed by Spatial Variability in Impact on
Australian Wheat Yield. Journal of Climate.
Hot Spot Analysis

Food insecurity index for all 5
countries. Yellow to red represents
areas with most people that are likely
to have a food shortage (per km2).
Derived (FII) using gridded data from
1999 to 2001 (www.harvestchoice.org).
Hot Spot Analysis

Simulated yield gap percentage
deviation. Negative values showing
those areas with the largest
difference between maize yields
assuming high technology inputs
and low technology inputs.
Water Use Efficiency (crop production / rainfall)

Average total crop production 1999-2001 Rainfall 1999 Rainfall 2000
Rainfall 2001
Precipitation: ftp://ftp.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc (Average Precipitation 1999 Jan-Dec - 2001 Jan-Dec, 50km x 50km grid)
Production: http://www.harvestchoice.org/ (Average Production 1999 – 2001, ~9km x 9km grid)
Hot Spot Analysis

Grain requirement
(kg/person/year) for each
country (source: Harvest Choice).
Grain requirement ranged between
115 to 400 kg grain /annum per
person. In case of missing data we
used a minimum grain requirement per
person of 190 kg/grain/annum
assuming a caloric requirement of
1,900 calories/day and a typical caloric
content of 3,600 calories per kilogram
of grain (Liu et al, 2008).

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Pathways to Food Security in eastern and

southern African through more Sustainable

Spatial Production Analysis

SRA Activity 1: Collection and compilation of spatial information

Hot Spot Analysis

source: Lui et al & ©FAO

Hot Spot Analysis

- Yield gap (YG): potential for improvement in cropping systems

- Food Insecurity Index (FII, supply & demand): potential impact of

Hot Spots = f[FII, YG]

Hot Spot Analysis

- Yield Gap (Maize, simulated) was calculated using difference between

- Clusters were created using

- ten classes: FII and YG within each country.

Hot Spot Analysis – landing areas

Hot Spot Analysis

Hot Spot Analysis

Hot Spot Analysis

Water Use Efficiency (crop production / rainfall ; 1999-2001)

Australian WUE ≈ 15kg/ha/mm

Questions for modelling

Decision making and systems models

e.g. markets, policy,

Risks (“known unknowns”) e.g. Climate

Horses for Courses

Oz-Wheat & Whopper

September 2006, Central Queensland Australia

“…there is lack of improved seeds and

Question for modelling (spatial & GIS)

Regional Commodity Forecasting

Oct 2006 - Percentile

Remote Sensing: Cropped Area (HANTS)

Cropping Intensity and Patterns (curve fitting)

- Start, end & length of season

 Predictive technologies from other countries (e.g. Australia) could be

Insurance industry has taken up such technologies and successfully

 Further research needs to be done on spatial production data for other

Hot Spot Analysis

Hot Spot Analysis

Water Use Efficiency (crop production / rainfall)

Hot Spot Analysis

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