Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Neftegaz
EIA
El Pas
10
12
13
PEMEX/
SPCs
Investors /
IOCs
14
Profit Sharing
Contracts
Production Sharing
Contracts
15
Service Contracts
Licenses
16
Contract
type
Exploration
Rights
Title to
Production
Service
Contracts
State
State
cash
High
Profit
Sharing
Contracts
State
State
a percentage of
revenue
Medium
Production
Sharing
Contracts
State
Shared
a percentage of
production
Medium
Licenses
Shared?
State - at the
wellhead
onerous transfer of
hydrocarbons
produced
Medium
to low
Booking
SPCs and private investors will be able to report such contracts, and expected
economic benefits, for accounting and financial purposes as long as the
contracts explicitly stipulate that all hydrocarbons within the subsoil remain the
property of the State.
17
18
The reform will demand creative restructuring efforts in order to materialize the
benefits. However, it is expected to benefit the industry and all stakeholders involved.
Oilfield service companies will be able to take advantage of the new opportunities for
investments as well as a potential increase in the complexity of E&P activities as they
move towards deepwater and shale.
19
Profit Splits
21
22
23
24
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Key Elements of the Constitutional Reform
II. Changes to Articles 25, 27 and 28 of the
Mexican Constitution
III. New Structure of the Mexican Energy Sector
IV. PEMEX as a State-Owned Productive Entity
V. Round Zero for PEMEX
VI. Following Round Zero
VII. What Comes Next?
I.
I.
I.
I.
Article 27
Article 28
MEXICAN STATE
SEMARNAT
SHCP
CNH
CRE
STATE-OWNED
PRODUCTIVE ENTITIES
PEMEX
Transfer
Transfer
CFE
PRIVATE SECTOR
conducts energy
and
Environmental regulator
SEMARNAT
NATIONAL CENTER
FOR ELECTRIC
POWER CONTROL
13
16
18
22
23
24
27
90
120
SEPTEMBER 2014
Deadline for SENERs asignaciones of E&P
blocks and assets to Pemex
days
days
270
DECEMBER 2014
Deadline for Congress adjustments to legal framework
on environmental / clean energy matters
days
365
APRIL 2015
Time limit for President to create the National Center for Gas
Control and National Center for Electric Power Control
DECEMBER 2015
Pemex and CFE deadline transition to become State-Owned
Productive Entities (Empresas Productivas del Estado)
days
485
days
730
days
Decreto por el que se reforman y adicionan diversas disposiciones de la Constitucin Poltica de los Estados
Unidos Mexicanos, en Matera de Energa (Bill of Decree to Reform and Amend Several Provisions of the
Political Constitution of the United Mexican States in Energy Matters), Diario Oficial de la Federacin, 20 de
diciembre de 2013, Tomo DCCXXXIII No. 17, Edicin Vespertina.
Mexican Presidency. White Paper: Reforma Energtica aprobada por el Congreso de la Unin, Mxico, 2013
(Energy Reform passed by Mexican Congress (2013))
Presentation: PEMEX: Constitutional Reform of the Energy Sector; Relevant Aspects, December 2013,
prepared and made available by PEMEX.
Presentation: Energy Reform, by Senator (PRI) David Penchyna Grub, delivered during the Economic
Perspectives
Seminar
held
at
ITAM
on
January
10,
2014,
available
at
http://exalumnos.itam.mx/noticias/docs/perspectivas14/David-Penchyna.pdf
Presentation: Energy Reform, by D. Lourdes Melgar, Undersecretary of Electricity, delivered during the
Economic Perspectives Seminar held at ITAM on January 10, 2014, available at
http://exalumnos.itam.mx/noticias/docs/perspectivas14/Lourdes-Melgar.pdf
David L. Goldwing, Mexico Rising: Energy Reform at Last?, published by the Atlantic Council, USA, 2013,
available at www.atlanticcouncil.org
29
Article: Mexicos Oil and Gas Sector: Background, Reform Efforts, and Implications for the United States,
CRS Report, Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress, Clare Ribando Seelke, Coordinator,
Specialist in Latin American Affairs; Michael Ratner, Specialist in Energy Policy; Ms. Angeles Villarreal,
Specialist in International Trade and Finance; Curry L. Hagerty, Specialist in Energy and Natural Resources.
Congressional Research Service, November 18, 2013. www.crs.gov.
Article: Mexico Energy Bill to End PEMEXs Monopoly on Oil, by Juan Montes, Latin America News,
December 7, 2013. Wall Street Journal, available at
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303497804579244503254132812
Article: Mexico Just Made a Historic Change to Its Energy Policy Heres Why it Might Not Matter, by Rob
Wile, December 14, 2013. Business Insider, available at: http://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-energyreform-reaction-2013-12#ixzz2nYABpOn7
Article: Behind Mexicos Oil Revolution, by Daniel Yergin, Opinion, December 18, 2013, Wall Street Journal,
available at
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304403804579261903190690252
Article: Petroleo y Energa: Las Preguntas que Exigen Respuestas en Leyes Secundarias by Ricardo
Becerra, President of Instituto de Estudios para la Transicin Democrtica, available at
http://www.ietd.org.mx/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/IETD-Reforma-Energtica_FINAL2.pdf
30
Reforma Energtica, Cuadro Comparativo, by Fundacin Desarrollo Humano Sustentable, December 11,
2013; CIDAC.
Reforma Energtica. Los 25 puntos ms importantes del proyecto de dictamen aprobado en lo general en
comisiones del Senado. Available at http://cidac.org/esp/uploads/1/25_puntos_dictamen_energia91213.pdf
Article: Mexicos President Signs Energy Overhaul Into Law, by Juan Montes, Latin America News,
December 20, 2013. Wall Street Journal, available at
http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB100014240527023047731045792705405969
Article: Mexicos Economic Reform Breakout; Opinion by Pierpaolo Barbieri and Niall Ferguson, December
26, 2013. Wall Street Journal, available at
http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB100014240527023043672045792687420464
Energy Sector Overhaul Now in Effect, by Lpez Velarde, Heftye y Soria, January 20, 2014, International Law
Office - www.internationallawoffice.com/Newsletters/details.aepx
Mexicos Oil and Gas Sector: Background, Reform Efforts, and Implications for the United States;
Congressional Research Service Report 7-5700, Clare Ribando Seelke (coordinator); found at www.CRS.gov
31
32
33
Lessons Learned
An Investment Bankers Perspective
Joe Amador
February 2014
Agenda
Who is TPH?
Mexico: Whats the size of the prize?
What can we learn from the US?
A case study, or Qu pas en Colombia?
Investors wish list
Myth: I can get better returns by investing in US unconventionals
Actionable items to consider
61
Our Team
62
Advisory
($ in millions)
2010 - 2014 YTD
Firm
Firm
101
Barclays
Value ($MM)
$195,224
Capital Markets
Public Equity
Joint Ventures
Hybrids
Opinions
Fixed income
Barclays
73
Goldman Sachs
157,847
Special Committee
Private placements
71
Citi
112,131
Jefferies LLC
69
Credit Suisse
111,947
Strategic advisory
QIU
65
Jefferies LLC
109,630
Restructuring
Citi
59
105,063
Goldman Sachs
53
97,387
JPMorgan
48
JPMorgan
85,232
47
Morgan Stanley
75,606
Credit Suisse
45
72,474
Overview
Managing
Director
15
Director
6
Industry/engineering expertise
integrated into IB effort across all
sectors
Vice President
6
Total Team:
54 Professionals
Senior Advisor
1
Associate
11
Midstream/MLP
Power
Upstream Downstream
Analyst
15
OFS
Banking Expertise
___________________________________
(1)
Source: Dealogic: United States Oil & Gas Exploration & Development/Field Equipment & Services/Diversified/Pipeline and
Utility & Energy Gas, pending and completed M&A transactions announced 1/1/2010 to 2/4/2014.
Technical Talent
63
10
5%
56
42%
77
58%
297
79%
201
95%
Mexico
Mexico
77
21%
US & Canada
Mexico
US & Canada
US & Canada
17
4%
395
96%
Mexico
___________________________________
Source: EIA, CIA.
US & Canada
13
16%
1,238
69%
67
84%
Mexico
545
31%
US & Canada
Mexico
US & Canada
64
US
Eagle
Ford
US
Eagle
Ford
Mexico
Shale
Mexico
Shale
5
Total Wells
Oil Wells
Oil/Gas Wells
250
200
150
Gas Wells
100
1993
___________________________________
Source: EIA, HPDI, Oilfield Review.
1998
2003
2008
2013
65
10,000
US
9,000
Mexico
8,000
Production (MBopd)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1988
___________________________________
Source: EIA, TPH.
1994
2000
2006
2012
66
United States
7.0
Production (MMbbl/d)
6.5
6.0
~2 MMbbl/d
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
2005
2006
2010
800
650
1.75
~1 MMbbl/d
1.50
1.25
1.00
2005
2009
Production (Mbbl/d)
Production (MMbbl/d)
2008
Texas
2.25
2.00
2007
2011
2012
N. Dakota
May 2006 EOG discovers
the Parshall Field
500
~1 MMbbl/d
350
200
2006
___________________________________
Source: EIA, TPH.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
67
Access to Capital
Between 2007 and 2012, US
drilling & completion capex (TPH
universe of 37 E&P companies)
more than doubled to $90B
Regulatory & Environmental
Acceptance
Adequate frameworks in place
Service Availability & Efficiencies
Service availability
NAM abundance of service
capacity and expertise
20
50
Capital Equipment
Total
18
45
Drilling Rigs
16
40
Fracturing Services
14
35
12
30
10
25
20
15
10
Facilities
Warehouses
# Companies
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
___________________________________
Source: Spears & Associates, Baker Hughes, TPH Estimates.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Consumables
Number of Companies
Horsepower
Millions
Proppants
Fluids
Logistics/Transportation
Infrastructure
Human Resources
2013
69
It takes years to develop the infrastructure and expertise required to tap deepwater resources
MS
AL
LA
TX
Pre-1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s+
___________________________________
Source: HPDI.
70
71
Ramp Up in Drilling
Wells Drilled
140
8,000
Oil Production
Success Rate
120
1,000
112
6,000
99
100
600
4,000
US$MM
800
MBopd
70%
130
80
50%
40%
75
70
56
60
60%
30%
400
2,000
40
20%
35
200
28
21
20
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
10%
10
0
2012
0
Security
improvements
___________________________________
Source: EIA, ANH, Banco Central de Colombia.
Contractual changes
and talent influx
0%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
72
73
Santos Assumes
Presidency
350%
300%
169%
250%
146%
200%
83%
150%
100%
01-Jan-09
01-Jul-09
01-Jan-10
01-Jul-10
GTE
___________________________________
Source: FactSet as of 2/1/2014.
03-Jan-11
01-Jul-11
EOG
02-Jan-12
02-Jul-12
01-Jan-13
01-Jul-13
S&P E&P
74
2,500%
Santos Assumes
Presidency
2,000%
1,500%
956%
1,000%
734%
500%
83%
0%
01-Jan-09
01-Jul-09
01-Jan-10
01-Jul-10
PRE
___________________________________
Source: FactSet as of 2/1/2014.
03-Jan-11
01-Jul-11
PXD
02-Jan-12
02-Jul-12
01-Jan-13
01-Jul-13
S&P E&P
75
400%
350%
Impact of YPF
Expropriation
300%
250%
200%
83%
150%
100%
(39%)
(39%)
50%
01-Jan-09
01-Jul-09
01-Jan-10
01-Jul-10
APCO
___________________________________
Source: FactSet as of 2/1/2014.
03-Jan-11
01-Jul-11
GDP
02-Jan-12
02-Jul-12
01-Jan-13
01-Jul-13
S&P E&P
76
Despite the wayward swings of the political whim pendulum, Latin America still offers investors remarkable opportunities
3,000%
2485%
2,500%
2,000%
1,500%
1,000%
500%
83%
0%
01-Jan-09
01-Jul-09
01-Jan-10
01-Jul-10
03-Jan-11
01-Jul-11
AMER
___________________________________
Source: FactSet as of 2/1/2014.
02-Jan-12
02-Jul-12
01-Jan-13
01-Jul-13
S&P E&P
77
78
Disclosure Statement
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. does not provide accounting, tax or legal
advice. In addition, we mutually agree that, subject to applicable law, you
(and your employees, representatives and other agents) may disclose any
aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are
necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits, and all materials
of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) related to those
benefits, with no limitations imposed by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
The information contained herein is confidential (except for information
relating to United States tax issues) and may not be reproduced in whole or
in part.
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. assumes no responsibility for independent
verification of third-party information and has relied on such information
being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such
information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance
(including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by,
reviewed or discussed with the managements of your company and/ or other
potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, we have
assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared
on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of
such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained
from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). These materials were
designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and the
affairs of your company and Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. materials.
Under no circumstances is this presentation to be used or considered as an
offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. Prior to
making any trade, you should discuss with your professional tax, accounting,
or regulatory advisers how such particular trade(s) affect you. This brief
statement does not disclose all of the risks and other significant aspects of
entering into any particular transaction.
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP is authorized and regulated
by the Financial Conduct Authority and is the United Kingdom affiliate of
Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., LLC.
79
80
2014 Gaffney, Cline & Associates. All rights reserved. Terms and conditions of use: by accepting this document, the recipient agrees that the document together with all information included therein is the confidential and proprietary property of Gaffney, Cline &
Associates valuable trade secrets and/or proprietary information of Gaffney, Cline & Associates (collectively "information"). Gaffney, Cline & Associates retains all rights under copyright laws and trade secret laws of the United States of America and other countries.
The recipient further agrees that the document may not be distributed, transmitted, copied or reproduced in whole or in part by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise, without the express prior written consent of Gaffney, Cline & Associates, and may not be
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Albert Einstein
81
Reservoir
(in-place volumes)
Net
Recoverable
Resource
Project
(production & cash flow
schedules)
Property
(ownership/contract terms)
82
Entitlement
Entities may claim entitlement to future marketable
volumes based on the contract terms
Fourth Transnational
Congress to make necessary adjustments in the legal
framework to regulate the contract modalities, which will be
among others, Service Agreements, Profit or Production
Sharing or Licenses to explore or exploit oil and hydrocarbons
2014 Gaffney, Cline & Associates. All Rights Reserved.
Risked-Service Contracts
Contractors exposed to market and/or technical risks and are
paid in cash rather than in production
Pure Service Contracts
Contractors are paid fixed fees
84
85
Concessions
Can I book
Reserves?
Right to extract and
market oil and gas
Production Sharing
Contracts
Revenue Sharing
Contracts
RiskService
Contracts
Pure Service Contract
Purchase Agreements
Exposure to market
and technical risk
Opportunity for
reward through
participation in
producing activities
Booking Reserves
Entities may claim Reserves subject to accounting and
disclosure rules on reserves recognition
Fifth Transnational
86
USA SEC
EU ESMA
Canada CSA (NI51-101/COGEH)
Norway Oslo Bors
87
SPE
AAPG
WPC
SPEE
SEG
Resources Classification
Reserves
Discovered, recoverable,
commercial, remaining
Petroleum Resources
Management System
Classification
Contingent Resources
Discovered, potentially recoverable,
not yet commercial, remaining
1C, 2C, 3C
Prospective Resources
2014 Gaffney, Cline & Associates. All Rights Reserved.
Undiscovered, potentially
recoverable, potentially commercial,
remaining
Low, Best and High Estimates
Unrecoverable
88
Categorization
89
90
Thank you!
91
VAT 16%
Page 93
OECD standards
No exchange controls
No financial transaction taxes
Withholding taxes:
Dividends
Interest
Royalties
Capital gains
Page 94
Financing Co.
Holding Co.
Financing Co.
IP/Leasing Co.
IP/Leasing Co.
Mexican
Subsidiaries
Other considerations
Dividends
Interest
Royalties
Page 95
Mexican BEPS
Economic substance beneficial
ownership
b)
a)
Page 96
Treaty benefits
Page 97
Employee taxation
Mexican Operating Co.
Foreign
Multinational
Group
Global
Employment
Holding Co.
Mexican
Operating Co.
Mexican
Services Co.
Rotators
Branch
Page 98
Mexican employees
Employees profit-sharing based, costplus markup
Rotators Branch
Personnel
Services
No employees
No payroll-related expenditures
Subcontracts personnel services from
Mexican Services Co. and Rotators
Branch
Non-Mexican employees
Mitigates risk of permanent
establishment
Flexibility with employee profit sharing
and social security contributions
Page 99
Page 100
Page 101
5.0%
* Source: INEGI
* Stats as of FY2012
Page 102
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Tax vs fee
Page 103
ey.com
Page 104
Disclaimer
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