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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 22, 2010
Early Evening Market Review for Tuesday
The entire energy complex was lower yesterday, and traders appear to have been
reacting to a number of economic reports which came out on the negative side this
week. Add to that Monday’s atrong opening and relatively weak close, and one has
both fundamental and technical reasons for prices to have moved lower.
Tuesday’s report on home sales was bearish and the euro weakended after two
fairly solid weeks of improvement. Traders were also selling in response to Monday’s
inability to hold above $78.40, which would be the Fibonacci (61.8%) retracement of
the decline from $87.15 to $64.24. Many technical traders saw that as an important
number, and oil prices spent Monday morning in trading on Globex, and then part of
Monday’s regular session on the Nymex, above that level, but could not close there.
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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 22, 2010
The result was that there was heavy, follow‐through technicval selling on the failure to hold above that level
on Tuesday. The fact that the dollar rallied and the euro dropped, after two weeks of stair‐stepping lower by
the dollar (in favor of the euro) made the technical selling that much richer. The correlation between oil prices
and movement in the euro has been the firmest and best established of any factors over the last month, so
weakness in the euro was easily translated into weakness in oil.
Equities were also dragged down in yesterday’s maelstrom. By the final bell, the DJIA was down 148.89 to
10,293.52. Existing home sales dropped 2.2% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors. This
was worsde than anticipated
and it takes recent ecionmic DOE Expectations
data further down the road Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters
towards a “W bottom. Most of Crude Oil dn 1.000 dn 0.800 dn 0.800 mln bbls
the data released over the last Distillate up 1.200 up 1.500 up 1.300
two or three weeks has not Gasoline up 0.300 dn 0.180 dn 0.100
been consistent with the idea Utilization up 0.2% up 0.3% up 0.2%
of a gathering economic
recovery.
The De[partm,ent of Transportation reported on Tuesday that road travel increased in April to its highest
level for the month since 1985. It was up 1.2%
from a year ago. Gasoline accounts for rougfhly
API Report 75% of vehicles on the road in the US. That flies in
Crude Stocks up 3.685 mln bbls
the face of the most recent SpendingPulse report
Distillate up 1.078
Gasoline up 0.810 from MasterCard. It is currently reporting year‐on‐
Utilization dn 2.1% to 87.2% year gasoline demand down 2.7%, despite an
Crude Imports up 1.275 mln to 9.983 mln bpd increase of 35,000 bpd, or 0.4% to 9.311 million
bpd in its most recent report. Four‐week demand
averaged 9.360 million bpd, down 39,000 bnpdf or
0.4% from a year ago. The four‐week demand figure out last night was the weakest since May 21st. Year‐to‐
date consumption is now 0.8% higher than a year ago. A month ago, it was a full percentage point higher.
Tuesday night’s AI report showed a build of 3.685 million bbls in crude oil stocks, a build of 1.078 million
bbls in distillate stocks and an increase of 0.810 million bbls in gasoline stocks. Refinery utilization was up 2.1%
to 87.2%, and crude oil imports jumped 1.275 million bpd to 9.983 mln bpd. Implied demand was 9.315
million bpd in gasoline and 4.309 million bpd in distillate. It was a bearish report on a bearish day.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
Crude oil prices started to turn lower on Tuesday, and this could be the start of a larger decline in prices.
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