Jan 2012 PDF

Vol. 156 No.
1 January 2012
Closing Power and

Pipeline Gaps
EPRIs R&D Plans

China Sets Lofty Energy Goals
New Tech for Job Safety
Muscatine Wins PRBCUG Award
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Established 1882 Vol. 156 No. 1
January 2012
ON THE COVER
The U.S. has plenty of fuel, but the infrastructure needed to deliver it to power plants and
electricity users is often absent or gappy. Renewables, including wind and solar, are abundant, but transmission lines dont always exist to carry renewable power to load centers.
Estimated reserves of natural gas have increased, fueling hopes of a cleaner alternative
to coal, but getting that gas to processors and plants will require new pipelines. Filling
these infrastructure gaps is expensivebut could be necessary. Cover art by Elizabeth C.
Johnston, Lizzardbrand Inc.
26
COVER STORY: 2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST

26 U.S. Confronts Pipeline Gaps While Europe Juggles Renewables and Debt
Hugely increased estimates of shale gas reserves and new federal pollution control
regulations have made gas the front-runner for new generation in the U.S., but
gas will only win in the long run if new pipeline infrastructure can be put in place.
Across the pond, renewables still shine brightly, but economic woes are putting
a strain on all new build plans. Its going to be an interesting year as potential
meets practicality.
SPECIAL REPORTS

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
40
40 EPRI Bridges Industry R&D Gaps

The senior VP for research and development at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) maps out six key innovation and research paths that his organization
is pursuing to help the electricity industry meet the challenges ahead. EPRI calls
them Long-Term Operations, Near-Zero Emissions, Renewable Resources and
Integration, Water Resource Management, Energy Efficiency (End-to-End), and
Smart Grid.
POWER IN CHINA
50 Chinas 12th Five-Year Plan Pushes Power Industry in New Directions

Contributors from North China Electric Power University in Beijing provide insights into the power industry requirements of their countrys current Five-Year
Plan: develop clean energy, optimize the production of coal-fired electricity,
rationally allocate peaking power, develop distributed energy, and construct a
strong and smart grid.
Web Exclusive: U.S. Military Smart Grid Activities

Dont miss our coverage of one important agent in smart grid development: the U.S. military.
If Pentagon spokespersons and the smart grid media are to be believed, we may see some of
the most significant smart grid/electricity system developments come from the military in the
next few years. Youll find The U.S. Military Gets Smart Grid associated with this issues
features in our archives and on our home page in January at www.powermag.com.
Looking for a fast way to access all of our smart grid coverage? Click the Smart
Grid hot button at the top of the home page.
January 2012 POWER
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FEATURES
56
Powder river basin coal
56 PRBCUG Small Plant of the Year: Muscatine Power & Water

A 293-MW municipal utility plant won the 2011 Small Plant Award from the Powder
River Basin Coal Users Group (PRBCUG). Learn how an explosion shortly after converting to this volatile, low-sulfur coal prompted plant staff to join and learn from
the PRBCUG how to successfully operate a plant that was not originally designed
to handle PRB coal.
PLANT O&M
60 Navigant Announces Coal-Fired Generation Operational Excellence Awards

Want to make your coal-fired plant award-worthy? Check out previous award winners and learn about the criteria that one major consulting company uses to determine whos a winner.
WORKSITE SAFETY
60
62 Real-time Proactive Safety in Construction

Collisions involving moving vehicles and equipment are the primary cause of construction injuries and deaths. In this article, the Construction Industry Institute introduces remote sensing and visualization technology that promises to improve
worker situational awareness and save lives.
DEPARTMENTS
Speaking of Power
6 My Top 10 Predictions for 2012

GLOBAL MONITOR
8 World Energy Outlook Forecasts Great Renewables Growth

10 Australia Levies Landmark Carbon Tax
10 NRC to Implement Lessons Learned from Fukushima
11 GE Uses Steel Mill Gases to Power Turbine
12 THE BIG PICTURE: Gas Taxes
14 PJM Completes Unique Dual-Primary Control Centers
14 POWER Digest
62
Focus on O&M
16 Level Switches Keep Electrostatic Precipitators Online

18 Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users Group Formed
20 Condenser Life Cycle Seminar
20 Marmaduke Award Trophy Presented
23 Correction
LEGAL & REGULATORY
24 Green Technology = Green Jobs?

By Steven F. Greenwald and Jeffrey P. Gray, Davis Wright Tremaine LLP
11
66 New Products
Commentary
72 Upbraiding the Utilities

By Dr. Paul M. Grant, IBM research staff member emeritus
On the Web: International Solar Trade Dispute
Its complicated. U.S.-China Solar Trade Dispute Gets Thornier in the Web Exclusives
section of our home page at www.powermag.com helps you understand the myriad aspects
of this important issue. The story will also be associated with this issues Global Monitor.
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
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POWER January 2012
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SPEAKING OF POWER
My Top 10 Predictions for 2012
he New Year will be pivotal for the

power generation industry, as you
will read in our 2012 Industry Forecast (p. 26) and my list of predictions
below. Looking back over the past year, I
again gave myself a B+ on my 2011 predictions (see p. 33 for a rundown of my
individual scores).
10. The Kyoto Protocol Dies. The Kyoto
Protocol will expire on December 31, 2012.
Canada, Japan, and Russia have said they
will not participate in a renewed agreement; the U.S. never signed on to Kyoto
in the first place; and India is preoccupied
with growing its economy. The chance for
a new multilateral agreement is nil.
9. Fracking Regulations Increase. The
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
and Department of Energy (DOE) will produce a series of rules that will tangibly reduce the number of natural gas wells that
use fracking technology to reach natural
gas resources located deep underground.
8. Coal Combustion Residuals Rule
Delayed, Again. The EPAs proposed rule,
first published in June 2010, describes two
regulatory options: classify ash as a nonhazardous or as a hazardous waste. A final rule,
delayed multiple times, is now predicted for a
mid-2012 release. Insiders say the EPA wants
to make a hazardous determination, but
others in the Obama administration recognize that such a determination is politically
intemperate before the November election.
Like the unpopular ozone rule, the EPA will
kick the decision into 2013.
7. Cooling Water Intake Structure Rule
Goes Live. This rule, affecting the cooling
water systems of 670 power plants, effectively eliminates the use of once-through
cooling for any new plant additions and
requires current users to make modifications to existing systems to reduce the
number of aquatic organisms entering
the cooling water system. The rule will be
finalized mid-year, forcing some existing
plants to install cooling towers.
6. Grid Reliability Trumps EPA Air
Quality Rules. The North American Electric
Reliability Councils recent grid reliability
report determined that the EPAs new air
quality rules may significantly affect bulk
6
power system reliability depending on the

scope and timing of the rule implementation and the mechanisms in place to preserve reliability. The EPA denies the rules
will have any effect on system reliability.
I predict this standoff will continue until
an independent analysis, perhaps by the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
record number of projects before December

31, 2012, when the production tax credit
(PTC) expires. However, the project queue
for 2013 and beyond is empty. If the wind
industry cant survive with the current level
of subsidies and volume of production, then
when? After 20 years, it is time for the wind
industry to wean itself from government sub-
Expect additional bankruptcies by companies

that received DOE-approved loan guarantees.
(definitely not the DOE, which has sided
with the EPA on this issue). That analysis
will conclude that the impact of new EPA
rules has a significant impact on system
reliability in regions with large amounts of
coal-fired generation or excessive transmission congestion.
5. 1603 Treasury Grant Program Will Not
Be Renewed. The popularity of a program
that writes a check for 30% of the cost of a
project and has disbursed $9.8 billion to date
to mostly wind and solar project developers
is obvious: It is always better to get your
money up front. In a recent press release,
the Spanish company Iberdrola Renewables
noted its unprecedented success in obtaining these cash grantsover $1 billion since
September 2009. Congress will not renew the
program when it expires on December 31,
2011, or at any time during 2012.
4. More Companies with DOE Loan
Guarantees Will Fail. On the heels of the
$500 million loss incurred by taxpayers
when Solyndra failed, expect additional
bankruptcies by companies that received
DOE-approved loan guarantees. A recent
Government Accountability Office audit
found that 50% of the loan guarantees it
examined were issued before full reviews
were conducted, just as with Solyndra.
When the losses reach several billion dollars, DOE Secretary Steven Chu will become
the administrations scapegoat, leaving
his job before the November elections.
3. Production Tax Credits Will Not Be Renewed. Developers are racing to complete a

www.powermag.com
sidies and accept the fact that Congress will

not renew the PTC in 2012.
2. MACT Rules Will Be Delayed and
Rewritten. The proposed utility MACT rule
was released in April 2010 and made final
in February 2011. A largely revised rule
that corrected known flaws was re-released on December 2. Unfortunately, the
new rule still requires compliance when
compliance is largely impossible by most
coal-fired utilities. I predict that because
this rule is said to eliminate between
200,000 and 400,000 jobs or more, if you
believe the more dire predictions, there
will be sufficient congressional bipartisan support for a rewrite that will achieve
similar results while providing a realistic
compliance schedule.
1. GHG Lawsuits Prevail. Two days of
oral arguments are scheduled to begin on
February 28 before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in response to
the lawsuits filed by Texas on May 24, and
joined by 14 states, challenging the EPAs
greenhouse gas (GHG) endangerment finding and tailoring rule. I predict the plaintiffs will prevail in these lawsuits against
the EPA, although a final resolution will
surely rest with the Supreme Court, perhaps in 2013.
I dont expect everyone to agree with
each of my predictions. If you have strong
feelings, aye or nay, let me know at editor@
powermag.com.
Dr. Robert Peltier, PE is POWERs
editor-in-chief
POWER January 2012
P E O P L E
P R O C E S S E S
T E C H N O L O G Y
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APR initiated an alarm, while no alarm was initiated by the legacy system. After
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World Energy Outlook Forecasts Great

Renewables Growth
Driven by policies to limit carbon emissions, as well as government subsidies, the share of worldwide nonhydro renewable power
is set to grow from just 3% in 2009 to 15% in 2035, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts in its recently released World
Energy Outlook 2011. Under the same scenariowhich assumes
that carbon pricing, explicit or implicit, is adopted in developed
countries as well as Chinacoal will continue to reign as the
worlds largest source of power globally in 2035, but to a much
lesser extent, falling from 41% to 33% (Figure 1). Power from
oil will become a rarity, as it drops from 5% in 2009 to 1.5% in
2035, and the percentage of power from natural gas, hydro, and
nuclear will remain relatively constant throughout the period, at
22%, 16%, and 13% respectively, the report says.
Demand for power is forecast to continue its upward trend,
even though in 2009 demand fell by an unprecedented 0.7%
in response to the global economic slowdown. In the New Policies Scenario, which assumes carbon pricing in only developed
countries and China, demand will grow by four-fifths, at 2.4%
to over 31,700 TWh in 2035. If current policies are continued,
as assumed in the Current Policies scenario, demand will double,
and under the 450 Scenario, which assumes carbon policies are
implemented in every country, it will increase by almost twothirds. Nearly 80% of demand growth will occur in developing
countries, with China and India representing two-thirds of that
growth. Industry will remain the largest power-consuming sector,
with residential use following close behind. Even with widespread
use of electric vehicles, as is envisioned by 2035, transportation
will only account for about 2% of total demand.
Coal power will double in developing countriesfar outweighing a fall in developed countries, particularly in the European
Union (EU), where it plunges by two-thirds as a result of the EUs
carbon emissions trading program. (See The Big Picture on p.
12 for more on carbon taxes.) In the U.S., even under the New
Policies Scenario, coal will remain comparatively stable, dropping
1. Policies prime renewable pump. According the Interna-
tional Energy Agencys (IEAs) World Energy Outlook 2011 the share of
renewables in global installed power generation capacity and additions
in the New Policies Scenario is poised to surge to 15% in 2035, from
3% in 2009. Courtesy: IEA
Total installed capacity
Capacity additions:
Renewables
Nuclear
Existing 2010 capacity

Oil
Gas
Coal
Global subsidies to renewables-based

electricity and biofuels by region in the New Policies Scenario are set to
increase, with renewable subsidies increasing from $66 billion in 2010
(compared with $409 billion for fossil fuels) to $250 billion in 2035, the
International Energy Agency says. Courtesy: IEA
India
China
United States
European Union
250
8,000
Billion dollars (2010)
200
6,000
GW
150
4,000
100
2,000
2. Continued support.
Rest of world
10,000
0
2010
just 3% between 2009 and 2035. Chinas share of coal power is

also expected to drop from 79% in 2009 to 56% in 2020, but in
India, coal use is projected to almost triple.
The IEA projects that more-efficient coal-fired plants will be built
through 2035, including ultrasupercritical designs and integrated
gasification combined cycle plants, driven by increases in coal prices
and reductions in the capital costs of advanced coal technologies. As
a result, the average global thermal efficiency of coal plants increases
by four percentage points, from 38% in 2009 to 42% in 2035, the
report says. By 2035, 65 GW of coal capacity will be equipped with
carbon capture and storage, though related technologies only become competitive with other generation technologies closer to 2035,
and only in regions that have adopted a carbon price.
Natural gasfired generation will grow from 4,300 TWh in 2009
to a little over 7,900 TWh in 2035 under the New Policies Scenario, with much of that growth occurring in China (one-fifth),
the Middle East (one-fifth), and India (one-tenth). Gas generation
will also grow in developed countries, spurred by efficiency improvements and carbon pricing that will make gas power competitive with coal. Combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) will remain the
dominant gas-fired generation technology (over 60% of growth in
gas-fired generation will be produced by CCGT plants), but use of
open-cycle gas turbines is also forecast to more than double.
The nuclear accident in Japan resulted in retirement plans for
all nuclear plants in Germany by the end of 2022, no lifetime extensions or new plants in Switzerland, decommissioning of Units
1 to 4 and no construction of new units at the Fukushima Daiichi
site, and delays in capacity additions in China. In the wake of the
Japanese disaster, financing may become more difficult to secure
for nuclear projects worldwide, leading to an increased cost of
capital, the IEA forecasts. Compared to figures published in the
2010 Outlook, expected construction costs have risen by 5% to
10%. Even so, many countries will press ahead with plans for new
nuclear, though short-term delays are expected. Globally, nuclear
power capacity is projected to rise in the New Policies Scenario
from 393 GW in 2009 to 630 GW in 2035just some 20 GW lower
than projected in the previous years Outlook.
Renewables expand significantly in all three scenariosand
2015
2020
2025
2030

2035
50
0
www.powermag.com
2007 2008 2009 2010
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
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especially in the New Policies Scenario, where they triple, from

3,900 TWh in 2009 to 11,100 TWh in 2035, driven by government
policies, including subsidies (Figure 2). The bulk of this growth
comes from wind and hydro (about 33% each); biomass accounts
for about 17% and solar photovoltaic (PV) for about 10% of all
renewable generation.
The U.S., China, EU, and India will see the most wind growth
(almost 75%) and about 70% of solar PV growth. Ultimately,
China will be the worlds leading onshore wind power producer.
The IEA suggests that solar PV is also set to grow tremendously,
at a rate of 15% per year until 2035. The EU currently accounts
for about 75% of global solar PV generation. Europe will continue
to see strong growth over the next few years, but between 2020
and 2035, the increases in solar PV generation in China, the U.S.,
and India will each be larger than in the EU.
Hydropower has already been developed extensively in many
developing countries, and there is limited remaining potential,
given the costs and environmental constraints, the report says.
Developing countries will see 85% of new hydro capacity additions, with China, India, and Brazil making more than half of
those additions. Biomass power plants grow at an average annual
rate of 6.5%, which results in a five-fold growth in output over
the Outlook period, from 288 TWh in 2009 to 1,500 TWh in 2035.
Again, the bulk of that growth will come from developing countries, with China and India leading the pack.
(soft lignite) and black (lower sulfur and ash) coal for electric
power. Large black coal plants, which fire 57% of Australias generation, are located near extensive black coalfields in both New
South Wales and Queensland as well as in Western Australia. Brown
coalfired baseload power stations are located in Victorias Latrobe
Valley. South Australia also relies heavily on subbituminous coal
mined at Leigh Creek in the north of that state.
The country is the worlds largest exporter of coal: In 2010, black
coal bought by countries including Japan, China, South Korea, and
India brought in A$43 billion (US $43.96 billion)or 15% of Australias exports of goods and services, second only to iron ore.
Because coal forms such a major part of Australias economic backbone, government regulation of emitted carbon has been a hotly
contentious issue. The unpopularity and eventual fall in 2007 of
former Prime Minister John Howard, a conservative, and the Labor
Partys Kevin Rudd in 2010 have both been imputed to dissention
over the tax. Current Prime Minister Julia Gillard hailed the taxs passage, which followed 37 parliamentary inquiries, and years of bitter
debate and division, she told reporters in November.
The Senate passed the tax by 36 to 32 votes after the Australian Greens Party supported the Gillard-led minority Labor government. The measure was part of an 18-bill package, which had
passed the lower house of Parliament by a narrow margin of just
two votes. Opposition leader Tony Abbott has pledged to repeal
the law if he wins the prime ministerial post in late 2013.
Australia Levies Landmark Carbon Tax
NRC to Implement Lessons Learned

from Fukushima
After more than a decade debating whether to pass a carbon-limiting

law, Australias Senate in November voted in a landmark bill that will
impose a price on carbon emissions. The country, which accounts for
just 1.5% of global carbon emissions, but which is the worlds highest
emitter per capita because 80% of its power comes from coal-fired
generation, has become the second major economy behind the European Union to pass such a measure. (See The Big Picture on p. 12
for other countries with carbon taxes.)
The legislation sets a fixed carbon tax of A$23 (US$23.78) per
metric ton on the top 500 polluters beginning July 2012. Increasing 2.5% annually, the tax will then move to an emissions trading
scheme with a floating-rate price from July 2015. Government is expected to limit or increase the amount of tradable permits released
every year, and companies could then be able to trade carbon credits
with similar systems in New Zealand and Europe. Europe currently
trades carbon emissions from between $8.70 and $12.60 a metric
ton, a price significantly lowered by the ailing global economy.
Spurred by a further A$10 billion funding in clean energy, the
program is expected to spark multi-billion-dollar investments in
natural gas and renewable power (though not, pointedly, in carbon capture and storage plants) to replace Australias coal plants.
According to the Australian Coal Associationwhich said the tax
package had fatal flawsthe nation relies heavily on brown
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in October directed staff to begin implementing seven safety recommendations
put forth by the federal bodys Near-Term Task Force on lessons
learned from the nuclear accident at Tokyo Electric Power Co.s
Daiichi power plant in Japans Fukushima prefecture last March.
The recommendations affecting all 104 nuclear reactors (Figure
3) in the U.S. could be in place by April 2014, but experts have
urged that implementation of the rules be expedited.
The Task Force released its recommendations in July last year, providing a proposal to the NRC, which selected the seven recommendations that could be immediately implemented. According to the NRC,
the mitigation strategy requirements could use performance-based
standards in any new or revised regulations when possible.
The seven recommendations cover loss of all AC power at a
reactor that could prompt a station blackout, reviews of seismic and flooding hazards, emergency equipment, and plant staff
3. Lessons learned.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)

will begin implementing at all 104 U.S. reactors recommendations made
by a task force that was commissioned to identify lessons learned from
the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. The accident has renewed
NRC scrutiny and public pushback against older plants like Indian Point
(shown here) in Winchester County, N.Y. Courtesy: Entergy
Online: The Latest in the

International Solar Trade Dispute
If you think the main reasons the U.S. is lagging in photovoltaics manufacturing are labor costs and Chinese subsidies, youre
missing a big part of the picture. See U.S.-China Solar Trade
Dispute Gets Thornier in the Web Exclusives section of our
home page at www.powermag.com. The story will also be associated with this issues Global Monitor in the archives.
10
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
training. They prescribe that:
4. From parasitic facility to utility. A GE project at the 170-
The NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary design-basis seismic and flooding protection of structure,
systems, and components for each reactor in operation.
The NRC require licensees to perform seismic and flood protection walkdowns to identify and address plant-specific vulnerabilities and adequacy of monitoring and maintenance for
protection features. These include watertight barriers and seals
in the interim.
The NRC order licensees to provide reasonable protection
for equipment from effects of design-basis external events.
It could also require licensees to add equipment to address
multi-unit events.
The NRC strengthen station blackout mitigation capability at
all operating and new reactors for design-basis and beyonddesign-basis external events.
The NRC order licensees to include reliable hardened wetwell
vents in BWR Mark I and Mark II containments.
The NRC strengthen and integrate onsite emergency response
capabilities such as emergency operating procedures and severe accident management guidelines.
The NRC require facility emergency plans to address prolonged
station blackout and multiunit events.

The measures are critical even though a similar sequence of

events in the U.S. is unlikely because existing mitigation measures could reduce the likelihood of core damage and radiological
releases, NRC Commissioner George Apostolakis told attendees
at a recent Eurosafe conference in November.
The Great East Japan Earthquakea 3-minute, magnitude 9.0
temblorgenerated a series of tsunami waves as tall as 38.9
meters (130 feet), killed more than 25,000 people, and set off
the worst nuclear disaster in 25 years. At Daiichi, a 15-meter
(49-foot) tsunami inundated and disabled the offsite power supply (12 of 13 backup generators located in the basements of
the turbine buildings) of three units, interrupting critical cooling
functions. The tsunami also disabled their heat exchangers and
electrical switchgear. All three units consequently saw explosions
that damaged their reactor buildings. It was also later established that the cores of Daiichi 1, 2, and 3 had largely melted
within the first three days of the crisis.
The accident was not of extremely low probabilitythat
is, it was not unthinkable, Apostolakis told attendees. The
tsunami hazard was underestimated, critical equipment
was located in lower plant elevations, and a flooding risk
could have identified existing vulnerabilities, he said. But,
he added, Rather than spending resources on analyzing extremely rare events, we should focus on ensuring the correctness of the design basis.
GE Uses Steel Mill Gases to Power Turbine
The worlds steel industry is power-hungry. Using energy both

to supply heat and power for plant operations and as a raw
material for the production of blast furnace coke, the sector
uses a major fraction of the worlds total energy consumption. Chinas steel and iron sectors have been mushrooming
on the back of skyrocketing demand, fed by an economy that
has been growing at 9% annually for 10 years.
According to Chinese academics, the nations steel and iron
manufacturers energy demand reached more than 490 million
tons of coal equivalentor more than 17% of the total national
January 2012 POWER
MW power plant at Handan Iron & Steels mill in Handan City, China,
promises to capture blast furnace and coke oven gases generated during steel manufacture and convert them into power. This image shows
assembly of the massive GE 9E gas turbine. Courtesy: GE
energy consumption in 2008. Chinas iron and steel industry produces 11% of its total carbon dioxide emissions (compared to 5%
worldwide). They also suggest that 95% of these emissions are
caused by combustion of fossil fuels.
Enter engineers at GE Energy in November, who said they
had found a way to turn some of steels biggest liabilities into assets. The solution involves an improvisation on
an old method to convert carbon- and hydrogen-rich waste
greenhouse gases into electricity. And they plan to put it
into effect in a newly ordered project at the 170-MW power
plant at Handan Iron & Steels mill in Handan City, China.
GE says that the project will capture, clean, and compress
the blast furnace and coke oven gases generated during the
steel-making process and feed it to GEs giant 9E Heavy-Duty
Gas Turbine (Figure 4)a technology that will reportedly
produce enough electricity to potentially turn an averagesize steel mill into a net power generator.
The plant can go from being a parasitic facility to essentially
a utility, says GE Energys Ryan Derouin. If they are in that
utility-island mode, they can start selling power back to the grid
or send it to other parts of the plant. It gives the owner options. The technology also has the potential to nearly halve the
electricity cost for Handan, from the market rate of $100/MW
to as low as $60/MW, Derouin says. It could also allow the mill
to lower costs, boost profitability, and gain a competitive edge,
especially in a market with low grid reliability.
The project has been challenging. One issue encountered was
that waste gases at Handan vary in quality and contain too little
of the heat-packing hydrogen to make the gases burn effectively
by themselves. Instead of redesigning the plant, engineers opted
to redesign the fuel, finding a clever way to clean, compress, and
mix gases to power the huge turbine. This is the lowest quality
fuel weve ever even considered burning, said Keiran Coulton,
president of GE Energy, Global Industries.
The Handan project is not unique: In 2010, GE rolled out
two GE 9E turbines at Wuhan Iron & Steel, and it claims that
so far, the turbines have increased Wuhans energy efficiency
by 25% to 40% on average and lowered carbon dioxide emissions by about 2 million tons.
www.powermag.com
11
Finland: The worlds first carbon/energy tax (1990).
Sweden: A tax on carbon emissions (1991). Tax does not

apply to fuels used for power generation.
Norway: A 1991 tax on hydrocarbon fuels (petroleum, diesel, and gas).
The Netherlands: A general fuel tax

on fossil fuels (1992).
Costa Rica: A 1997 carbon tax on hydrocarbon fuels. Some

revenues used for environmental restoration efforts.
UK: A climate change levy in 2001 on the use of energy

in the industry, commerce, and public sectors.
U.S.: Colorados City of Boulder (April 2007), Californias Bay Area Air
Quality Management District (May 2008), and Montgomery County,
Md. (May 2010) have imposed a tax on carbon emissions.
Canada: Quebec began collecting a tax on hydrocarbons in Oct. 2007. British Columbia implemented a revenue-neutral carbon tax in 2008. Albertas July 2007 levy taxes
companies that emit more than 100,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases annually.
India: Levy on produced and imported coal (2010).
Australia: Carbon tax on major polluters

to take effect in July 2012.
THE BIG PICTURE: Gas Taxes

After years of political wrangling, coal-rich Australia in November passed legislation that will require the
nations top 500 polluters, starting in July 2012, to pay a tax at a fixed price of A$23 (US$23.50) per ton
of carbon. The tax increases 2.5% annually until 2015, when an emissions trading program will begin. With
the Kyoto Treaty set to expire at the end of this year, several governments have in recent years implemented similar measures on manufacturers and power companies. Otherslike South Africa, China, South Korea,
Taiwan, and Francehave proposed or are considering taxes on carbon emissions. See the web exclusive
story associated with this issue at www.powermag.com for an in-depth look at the worlds carbon taxes.
12
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
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PJM Completes Unique

Dual-Primary Control
Centers
Swift technology developments in the

power sector and increasingly sophisticated security threats have prompted
regional transmission organization PJM
Interconnection to switch from its aging
centrally dispatched legacy system to
two state-of-the-art primary control
centers as part of its $200 million Advanced Control Center (AC2) program.
The grid operator that serves parts of
the Eastern Interconnection and administers a $35 billion wholesale electricity
market said in November, when the switchover was completed, that the program was developed through more than
five years of design, development, and
testing. It was initiated in 2006 with
Siemens Power Transmission & Distribution to define and develop a secure architecture and open messaging platform
for modern, large-scale energy management and market management systems.
Primary reasons PJM opted to sail
ahead with the initiative were to reduce
total cost of ownership by technology
standardization and to upgrade its systems to new standards for security and
resiliency because PJMs membership
had more than doubled since its legacy
systems were installed. Another reason
was that the grid entity realized innovations beyond marginal improvements
in existing control systems would be
necessary to maintain power reliability,
it said.
Essentially, the AC2 program reduces
risk because the two fully staffed primary control centers better ensure uninterrupted operation of markets and
grid control if functionality were lost at
either center, PJM said (Figure 5). The

scalable, service-oriented architecture
(SOA) for large energy management/
market management systems promotes
interoperability that cannot be found
in proprietary, legacy systems, it said.
The SOA-based system provides a common approach for software applications
and computer-based infrastructure to
exchange data and information. It also
allows technology from other vendors to
communicate and interoperate without
special adaptation.
PJM said it is the only grid operator in the U.S.and only one of three
worldwide, including the British Columbia
Transmission Corp. and Transpower in New
Zealandto have or have considered dual
primary control centers. The uniqueness
of this PJM implementation is found in
two elementsthe scale across the business enterprise and, most importantly, its
use in real-time monitoring and control
systems. While SOA has a proven history in
other industries as the backbone of transaction-based software applications, to our
knowledge, this is the first demonstrated
deployment for real-time electric and market systems, PJM spokesperson Paula
DuPont-Kidd told POWER in November.
Fran Barret, director of the AC2 program, explained that this approach is
an enterprise solution with a strategic
technological direction: management
of data and smart grid integration. The
program has enabled PJM to deploy and
demonstrate the approach across its Energy Management & Market Management
Systems and its Innovation platform.
PJMs customer-facing applications are
expected to follow this direction as part
of natural enhancement and replacement programs.
5. Two ways about it. PJM completed a
POWER Digest
$200 million program that essentially replaces

an aging centrally dispatched legacy system
with two state-of-the-art primary control centers. Courtesy: PJM
14
South Korea, China Poised to Make

Colossal Investments in Wind Power. South Korea, a nation that recently
announced it would spend 1 trillion

won ($884 million) on feed-in tariffs
for wind and solar projects, on Nov. 10
said it planned to invest 10.2 trillion
won ($9 billion) in a 2.5-GW offshore
wind farm that could come online by
2019. The government-led project will
be led by Korea Electric Power Corp.,
which will procure turbines from eight
local suppliers, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said. The project could
be located off the southwest coast of
the Korean peninsula in Jeollabukdo
and Jeollanamdo provinces. It will in
www.powermag.com
clude construction of 100-MW and 400MW demonstration farms by 2014 and

2016 respectively, where eight Korean
suppliersincluding Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction Co., Daewoo
Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering
Co., and Hyundai Heavy Industries
will test 3-MW to 7-MW turbines.
Also in November, Chinas National
Development Reform Energy Research
Institute published its 2050 wind power plan, a report that predicts total
installed wind capacity in the country
will hit 400 GW by 2030 and 1,000 GW
by 2050. China intends to back its wind
industry with investments of up to $12
trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) to supply
17% of domestic demand with wind by
2050. China, which offers a fixed pricing mechanism for wind power and offers subsidies, has already become the
worlds biggest wind power market. It
installed nearly 19 GW of new capacity in 2010, bringing total capacity to
44.7 GW.
GE, MetCap to Build New Gas

Plant, Extend Novel Integrated Renewables Gas Project. GE and Turk-
ish energy company MetCap Energy

Investments on Nov. 18 announced
their investment in the 878-MW Eurostar
project, a gas-fired plant that will help,
starting in 2014, to power Istanbul,
supporting Turkeys efforts to modernize
its aging energy infrastructure and meet
its growing electricity requirements.
MetCap also announced approval
from the Turkish government to nearly
double the output of what it calls the
worlds first integrated renewables combined-cycle (IRCC) plant by 2016. The
initial phase of the Dervish IRCC plant
in Karaman, Turkey, was announced in
June and is based on GEs breakthrough
FlexEfficiency 50 combined cycle technology (see our Dec. 2011 feature story
on this turbine). The license extension
allows energy output to be increased
from 570 MW to 1,080 MW. GEs FlexEfficiency IRCC plant includes a nextgeneration 50-hertz 9FB gas turbine, a
steam turbine, a generator, 22 MW of
GE wind turbines, and 50 MW of eSolar
concentrated solar thermal tower technology. The Dervish license extension
also paves the way for a second plant
using GEs FlexEfficiency technology
and eSolars concentrated solar power
technologies.
UK Opens Largest CCS Pilot. The
UK formally opened its largest carbon
capture and storage (CCS) project on
Nov. 30 at the Ferrybridge Power Station
POWER January 2012
in West Yorkshire. The 21 million ($33

million) project was built by Swedens
Vattenfall, technology supplier Doosan Power Systems, and UK utility SSE,
which is also owner and operator of the
Ferrybridge coal-fired power plant. The
pilot uses an amine solvent to capture
about 100 metric tons of carbon dioxide
per day from a flue gas slipstream corresponding to 5 MWe. This makes the
scale of the project ideal for bridging
the gap between the various laboratory-scale trials that are under way and
larger-scale demonstration projects,
Vattenfall said.
NTPC Puts Second of Three 500MW Coal Units Online. Indias state-
owned NTPC groupalso the countrys

largest power companyon Nov. 5 inaugurated Unit 2 of the 500-MW Indira
Gandhi Super Thermal Project at Jhajjar
and said its capacity has now risen to
35,354 MW. The Indira Gandhi project
is a 1,500-MW coal-fired plant under
development in Haryana State and comprises three units. Unit 1 came online
in November 2010; Unit 3 is scheduled
to be completed in January 2012. NTPC,
set up in 1975, now has 15 coal-fired,
seven gas-fired, and six shared projects

across India. Though recently stricken
by a critical coal shortage, NTPC said
it is working on projects to boost its
capacity to 128,000 MW by 2032.
Siemens Hands Over 870-MW

Dutch Gas Plant. After a construction
period of only 30 monthsand 20 days

ahead of scheduleSiemens Energy on
Oct. 21 officially handed over the 870MW Enecogen combined cycle power
plant in the Netherlands to a joint venture company created by Dutch utility
Eneco and the Danish company DONG
Energy. The plant is located in the industrial zone in the port of Rotterdam.
It consists of two single-shaft units
and attains an efficiency significantly
above 59.5%, Siemens claimed.
Siemens erected the plant as a turnkey project and supplied two SGT54000F gas turbines, two SST5-5000
steam turbines, two hydrogen-cooled
generators, and the entire electrical
and SPPA-T3000 instrumentation and
control equipment. The plants units
are designed for 290 starts per year and
reach full load after approximately 50
minutes. In tandem with CO2-free wind
3266 MetFab 4c ad_Layout 1 11/3/11 10:03 AM Page 1
turbines, whose feed-in fluctuates with

wind availability, the plant can quickly
compensate the required capacity, the
company said.
Mongstad CCS Technology Bidders Chosen. Norwegian companies
Gassnova and Statoil in November

revived the full-scale carbon capture
project at the existing Mongstad combined heat and power plant in Norway.
Companies selected to participate in
the technology qualification program
include: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Alstom Carbon Capture GmbH,
Siemens AG, Aker Clean Carbon, and
Huaneng-CERI Powerspan Joint Venture. The purpose of the technology
qualification program is to qualify at
least one technology and demonstrate
that it can be scaled up. The qualification program will be divided into three
phases: a feasibility study, demonstration, and a concept phase for design of
full-scale capture. Selection of the final
technology could be made as soon as
2014. Norways parliament is expected
to review and approve a final investment decision in 2016.
Sonal Patel is POWERs senior writer.
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www.powermag.com
15
Level Switches
Keep Electrostatic
Precipitators Online
Measuring the level of dust and fly ash collected in electrostatic precipitators (ESPs)
is a very difficult technical problem. At one
utility, level switches were so unreliable
that operators could not trust their readings
because failures were so frequent. When a
switch did fail, the precipitator would often
clog up, costing the utility up to $100,000
in downtime and repair costs.
Recycling Coal Combustion Products
Electric power is the primary industry that
burns coal. Coal combustion to produce electricity usually yields quantities of noncombustible minerals that require disposal. The
coal combustion products that remain after
combustion, such as fly ash, bottom ash, and
flue gas desulfurization gypsum, have proven
to be economical, high-quality raw material
feedstock for several other industries.
Fly ash is a good example of a potentially valuable and profitable by-product.
Fly ash is a powdery material that would
fly out of power plant stacks if it were
not captured. Today, most modern power
plants collect their fly ash to meet environmental regulations, but that fly ash
can be profitably recycled.
Fly ash is composed primarily of inorganic noncombustible minerals such as
alumina, silica, and iron. It exists as a

very finely divided, silt-sized particulate
that is removed from combustion gases by
using various types of collection equipment, such as ESPs and baghouses. Fly
ash is also very abrasive. Bottom ash has
a similar chemical composition to fly ash,
although the bottom ash is larger, generally ranging in size from sand to gravel.
Fly ash can be recycled to produce
many materials. For example, it can be
used in structural fill and in land development, building materials, and highway
construction. Fly ash is also used in metals recovery, the manufacture of agricultural fertilizers, and as plastics filler. Many
coal-fired power plants find it profitable
to sell coal combustion products to other
companies, as it adds to their bottom line,
and ESPs are the best way to capture and
collect fly ash and related products.
that are placed directly in the exhaust

gas stream. A discharge electrode placed
at the inlet of the ESP places a negative charge on the particulates in the gas
stream as the gas enters the device. The
opposite charge polarity acts like a magnet that pulls the particulates from the
gas to the collecting plates. Rappers dislodge the ash from the collecting plates,
causing the ash to fall into hoppers below.
The dust is removed by a conveyor system
for disposal or recycling (Figure 2).
Automating the operation of an ESP is a
complex but necessary requirement for the
entire air quality control system to operate efficiently. For the ESP, an essential
control element is measuring the level of
fly ash collected in the hoppers. The selection of the right level switch is critical,
especially if the precipitator has multiple
hoppers.
Precipitators Remove Fly Ash

An ESP is a large, industrial emission control unit that collects and removes dust
particles from the exhaust gas stream of a
power plant. Cleaned gas then passes out
of the ESP and through the stack to the
atmosphere. ESPs typically collect 99.9%
or more of the dust or fly ash from the gas
stream (Figure 1).
The ESP functions by placing a positive
charge on a system of collecting plates
Level Measurement Problems

At one coal-fired power plant in the Midwest, the failure of an older-design point
level device resulted in damage to a precipitator that cost $100,000 to repair
not counting lost electricity production,
which is often worth several times the
cost of repairs. The plant had been using
old and unreliable capacitance probes that
often produced nuisance trips. Plant operators soon did not trust the level control
information the devices were supposed to
be providing.
The low reliability of these older technology devices was probably a result of high
temperatures, insufficient surface area on
1. Dust collection device. The electrostatic precipitator (ESP) removes dust and ash
from the exhaust products of a coal combustion process and drops the material into hoppers
below. One of the challenges in operating an ESP is measuring the level of fly ash in the hot
collection hoppers. Source: Endress+Hauser
2. Many ESP options.
DeNox system
Flue gas desulfurization
There are many

sizes, types, and designs of ESP. Selection
of the right device is determined by the ash
and dust characteristics and the gas volume
treated, among the many other design requirements. Very large power plants may have multiple ESPs for each unit or may use a single
ESP for two units. Courtesy: Endress+Hauser
Electrostatic precipitator
16
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
the probe for the low dielectric constant,

inability of the devices to withstand the
physical rigors of the application, or some
combination of these reasons. After considering its control device options, the
utility installed an Endress+Hauser FTI77
level switch (Figure 3) on the precipitator
to replace the failed capacitance sensor.
The installation was so successful that
the utility is planning to install two FTI77
switches on all 16 of its precipitators.
For this application, a level switch that
is designed for point level detection at
high temperatures in bulk solids, similar
to that found in the ESP hoppers, is the
best choice. Another good feature is the
switchs active buildup compensation that
detects and compensates when fly ash
3. Well-designed switch. The FTI77

level switch is ideal for precipitators, because
it works in high temperatures and has a compensation circuit for ash buildup on the sensor. Courtesy: Endress+Hauser
accumulates around the probe, facilitat- occur, eliminating the possibility of any
ing safe switching. This level switch can static electricity discharges.
also withstand a maximum load or lateral
When installing point level sensors,
stress of up to 590 ft-lb, making it suit- users must be concerned about space
able for fly ash hopper applications. It limitations. Most precipitator hoppers
also has a sword probe instead of a round are grouped tightly together with limited
probe, which increases the surface area clearance. This switch requires that probes
of capacitance, improving performance in be a minimum of 20 inches apart. The
low dielectric applications, such as fly ash threaded coupling should be as short as
level measurement. Additionally, the de- possible, because condensation or product
sign prohibits fly ash from entering the build-up can adversely affect operation in
PM_USA_MultiDisc_11,58_19,05.qxp:Layout
1 27.06.2011
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coupling 12:06
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January 2012 POWER
www.powermag.com
17
4. Level switch installed. A typical installation of a solids level switch in a fly ash
hopper. Courtesy: Endress+Hauser
High temperatures can occur in a fly

ash hopper, so users must insulate the
external wall to prevent exceeding the
maximum temperature of the sensor
housing. Heat insulation also prevents
condensation from forming. The sensor
should not be placed directly under the
filling point; instead, it should be installed to the side, where it will not be
subject to direct impacts.
In July 2011, the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency announced the CrossState Air Pollution Rule, which requires
27 states to significantly improve air
quality by reducing power plant emissions that contribute to particle pollution in other states. This new rule
will require many existing coal-burning
power plants to upgrade their air quality control systems. Many plants will
add an ESP to improve fly ash collection
and reduce particulate emissions. Those
precipitators will work well, provided
the hoppers dont clog up because the
wrong level sensor was installed.
Ravi Jethra (ravi.jethra@us.endress.
com) is power and energy business
manager and Keith Riley is level product
manager for Endress+Hauser Inc.
Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal

Users Group Formed
Over the past 11 years, the Powder River Basin Coal Users Group (PRBCUG)
has grown to become the voice of North
American generating companies that are
dedicated to the safe and efficient use of

PRB coal. POWER, the groups media sponsor, has reported on the PRBCUGs annual
meetings, which are colocated with the
ELECTRIC POWER Conference & Exhibition
each year. POWER also reports annually on
the groups coal plant of the year award.
For 2011, in the large plant category the
award went to Kansas City Power & Lights
Iatan Unit 2 (see our August 2011 issue);
the small plant category winner, Muscatine Power & Water, is profiled in this issue, beginning on page 56.
Members discuss and trade insights
concerning the safe and efficient handling and burning of PRB coal during their
three-and-a-half-day annual meeting. Another goal of the group is to educate future users about the peculiarities of PRB
coal. The multi-day forum is highly interactive and designed to network peers so
that industry lessons learned are shared.
Today, the typical PRBCUG annual meeting
will have about 400 attendees.
Linking SBC Users
North America is not the only region where
subbituminous coal (SBC) is available. In
fact, many coal-fired power plants in Asia
Find cogen power plants in South

India, list new coal-fired projects
in Germany, track hydroelectric
projects in Brazil, and more ...
UDI World Electric

Power Plants Database
The Original Global
Reference
The Platts UDI World Electric Power Plants

Database (WEPP) is an inventory of generating
units covering plants of all sizes and
technologies operated by regulated utilities,
private power companies, and industrial
autoproducers (captive power).
This unique database is the largest global
power plant information resource available.
To purchase the UDI World Electric Power Plants Database, visit www.udidata.com or call your nearest Platts office.
North America
1-800-PLATTS8 (toll-free)
+1-212-904-3070 (direct)
Europe/Middle East/Africa
+44-20-7176-6111
Latin America
+54-11-4804-1890
Asia-Pacific
+65-6530-6430
For more information about Platts UDI databases and directories, visit www.udidata.com.
18
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
5. ASBC inaugural meeting. The first annual meeting of the Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users Group was held November 1 and 2, 2011,
in Hong Kong. For more information on the next meeting, visit www.asiansbcusers.com. Source: POWER
are or wish to become users of SBC, such

as that found in Indonesia, for the same
reasons as North American users: lower
NOx and SO2 emissions levels.
To begin a discussion of how to handle SBC coals in other parts of the world,
POWER and the PRBCUG, acting as the
lead conference organizers, cooperated
to bring more than 200 Asian SBC users
together for two days in early November
at Hong Kongs Harbour Grand Hotel for

the inaugural meeting of the Asian SubBituminous Coal Users Group (ASBC, Figure 5).
The founding members of the ASBC are
the major users of SBC in Asia: CLP Group
(a Hong Kong electric company with plants
in Asia and Australia); Hong Kong Electric
Co., Ltd. (HK Electric); Taiwan Power Co.;
Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd.; and
SORB - N - JECT
Technology
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB, the largest electric utility in Malaysia). A Steering
Council, represented by senior management of the ASBC founding members and
one representative from the PRBCUG executive committee, is providing leadership
and direction for the group.
S.S. Yuen, director of operations for
HK Electric (ASBC co-host with CLP Power) called the first meeting a landmark
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19
event for Asian companies that use SBC

coal to produce electricity. In Asia, we
notice that a number of coal-fired power
stations, like the founding members of
this Asian SBC Users Group, have been
increasing their consumption of subbituminous coals due to its low sulfur and
low ash content properties, which have
positive impacts on emissions, Yuen
said in his opening comments to the
conference. However, there are some
concerns over the operational risks of
using SBC. Being responsible operators,
we shall all look for best practices in
the industry and keep pace with the latest technology development in the uses
of SBC.
In this context, we fully support that
an SBC users group should be formed in
the Asia region to promote the safe, efficient, and economic use of subbituminous coals. The Asian SBC Users Group
will definitely be an excellent forum for all
Asian operators to learn from each other
through a web-based forum and annual
meetings.
Yuen then identified the decade of
work by the PRBCUG to develop procedures for ensuring safe and efficient use
of SBC, and the groups willingness to
share lessons learned, as key reasons
the ASBC was formed. I was told by my
colleagues who had participated in the
last two conference meetings in Baltimore and Chicago that the conference
meetings were very good and useful. Our
colleagues were very impressed with the
presentations made by the participants
who selflessly shared their experiences
in handling subbituminous coals, especially during the session for teachable moments. Most of the participants
would agree that they were not alone
in having bitter experiences in handling
subbituminous coal, and they could
learn from other generating companies
which had taken preventive measures
proactively to tackle the problems. I am
sure that the good tradition of PRB Coal
Users Group will be passed on to the
Asian SBC Users Group, and the Asian
experiences would also be beneficial to
the PRB Coal Users Group in the years
to come.
Paul Poon, chief operating officer of
conference cosponsor CLP Power, also expressed his great interest in forming the
ASBC because there are many users located across the Pacific Rim that fire the lowsulfur coal. The group was formed this
year with the aim of providing a forum for
sharing technical and operational experience amongst Asian power utilities, he
20
Condenser Life Cycle Seminar

The November issue of POWER featured
a special section titled Condenser Life
Cycle. That set of four articles covered
topics including condenser performance,
operation and maintenance (O&M), failure mechanisms, and retubingtopics
you will surely find useful at some time in
your career. The authors of those four articles work for companies that are part of
a coalition that sponsors the annual Condenser Life Cycle Seminar. Unfortunately,
a notice about the next seminar was omit-
said. Currently, we have major subbituminous coal users from Hong Kong, Taiwan,
Korea, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia. The group serves as a platform to
promote safe handling, storage, and use
of subbituminous coal, which is becoming
more popular because of environmental
concerns.
Poon also noted the technical challenges facing CLP Power and the other
companies represented at the conference when making a switch to SBC.
When switching to subbituminous coal
at a plant not originally designed for it,
enhancement or retrofits may be needed. The first thing is to improve the
coal-handling system because subbituminous coal is prone to spontaneous
combustion and is dusty. Preventively,
we can provide more fire and coal dust
control equipment in our system. Proactively, we can strengthen the coal
plant housekeeping and use fuel additives to suppress the spontaneous combustion.
Good Technical Content
Presenters at the inaugural ASBC meeting included members of the PRBCUG
and those working with SBC in Asia. For
example, Jasper Tan, manager of coal
storage and supply for Taiwan Power Co.,
presented The Role of Sub-Bituminous
Coal in the Operation of Taichung Power
Plant. He discussed the fuel supply system for his 10-unit coal-fired plant with
a nameplate of 5,500 MW that supplies
about 20% of TPCs total generation.
The 2.3 million metric ton coal pile is
also large scale, covering 170 acres. The
plant has been slowly ramping up its
use of SBC over the past few years. Tan
discussed both challenges (such as air
heater plugging) and successes (including lower NOx and SO2 emissions) experi
www.powermag.com
ted from the first article.

If you are interested in details about
the selection or O&M of steam surface
condensers, then the 2012 Condenser
Life Cycle Seminar is for you. The conferencescheduled for Feb. 1315, 2012, at
the Hilton Palacio del Rio in San Antonio,
Texasis the place to meet and interact
with condenser specialists and get realworld answers to your tough condenser
questions. For more information, visit
www.condenserseminar.com.
enced during the plants long-term fuel

upgrade program.
Other presentations included Lamma
Power Station Units 4 & 5 Improvement of Boiler Performance and Emission in 2010 by Hong Kong Electric
Co., Ltd. and Experience in Retrofitting Fire and Dust Control Equipment
for Coal Unloading Equipment by CLP.
The former presentation discussed the
low-NOx burners, mills, and boiler control upgrades added to the plant in
order to burn SBC. CLPs presentation
included two detailed case studies that
described the utilitys extensive coalhandling system upgrades made to accommodate SBC.
Second Meeting Planned
The ASBC Steering Council is now setting
the date and location for the second
annual ASBC meeting. Meeting information will soon be posted on the groups
website, www.asiansbcusers.com.
Contributed by Vice President and
POWER Publisher Brian Nessen.
Marmaduke Award Trophy

Presented
The 2011 Marmaduke Award winner was

CTG Universidad, a two-unit combustion
turbine plant built in the early 1970s in
Monterrey, Mexico. The award was made
to the plant in recognition of its upgrade
of one 14-MW unit to operate as a synchronous condenser, thus relaxing power
restrictions caused by a lack of sufficient
reactive power production in the north of
the city. More reactive power production
by this urban plant also allows delivery
of more power produced by efficient combined cycle plants located outside the city,
because it reduces the amount of reactive
power that must be moved over transmission lines.
POWER January 2012
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9TH ANNUAL
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6. Talented and dedicated staff. The
staff of CTG Universidad and other CFE employees who were responsible for the success of the project pose on the plants Unit
1 combustion turbine floor with POWERs
editor-in-chief and publisher. Courtesy: CFE
Details of how the combustion turbine was repurposed and saved from
shutdown and can be found in CFE Extends CTG Universidad Unit 2s Life with
Conversion to Synchronous Condenser,
in our August 2011 issue or the archives
at www.powermag.com.
Editor-in-Chief Dr. Robert Peltier and
Vice President and POWER Publisher
Brian Nessen visited CTG Universidad
on November 5 to present the Marma-
7. Trophy presentation. At the trophy presentation (left to right): CFE executives Eugenio Garca Macas, Lino Crdenas Villarreal, Alejandro Salazar Abraham, and Luis Alberto Rojo
Garca; Vice President and POWER Publisher Brian Nessen and Editor-in-Chief Robert Peltier;
and CFEs Luis Gonzalo Murrietta Rivera. Courtesy: SSS Clutch Co., Inc.
duke Award trophy to the plant staff

(Figure 6) and to Comisin Federal de
Electricidad executives who supported
the project (Figure 7). Our thanks to
CFE for their hospitality and for making our visit to their plant a memorable
experience.
Correction
In Siemens Releases ShapingPower Option for Renewables Integration (December 2011), the Figure 3 callouts for wind
and solar were reversed. POWER regrets the
error. A corrected version can be found in
the online version of the article.
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January 2012 POWER
www.powermag.com
23
Steven F. Greenwald
Green Technology =
Green Jobs?
Jeffrey P. Gray
By Steven F. Greenwald and Jeffrey P. Gray
n discussing implementation by the California Public Utilities

Commission (CPUC) of Californias new renewable energy law,
CPUC Commissioner Timothy Alan Simon urged consideration
of the economic, technical, and political consequences of the
CPUCs actions: Renewable energy is a fuel sourceits not a
religion. The promotion of renewable energy remains critical,
but as Commissioner Simon admonishes, public policy and investments advancing renewable energy must be based on sound
economics and physics rather than religious incantations.
Searching for solutions to our nations persistent and unacceptable
levels of unemployment, political, labor, and environmental leaders
have religiously embraced the easily accepted, but unproven, assertion that taxpayer investments in a green economy create green jobs.
President Barack Obama emphasized the creation of green jobs in
executing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).
Governor Jerry Brown similarly promised that the California renewable legislation mandate for green technologies would create tens
of thousands of new jobs. California regulators have discriminated
against out-of-state renewable resources, rationalizing that such exclusionary practices will promote in-state green jobs. The BlueGreen
Alliance, a partnership of labor unions and environmental organizations dedicated to expanding . . . jobs in the green economy,
reported that ARRAs green investments as of year-end 2010 had
created or saved nearly 1 million jobs.
The Energy Industry Is Capital Intensive
Promises and claims of green job creation ignore the fundamental

economics of the energy industry. Regardless of the fuel selected
to generate power, energy production is capital, not labor, intensive. The fuel choice has negligible impact on the employment
consequences of a new power plant. Construction of a renewable
power plant creates construction jobs and the associated multiplier effects in the local economy. However, these benefits
are transitory and largely undistinguishable from the short-term
stimulus any large-scale infrastructure project, such as restoration
of highway bridges or the strengthening of levees, provides.
Moreover, green power plants offer only a minute number of
long-term employment opportunities. Modern generating facilities,
particularly those using renewable resources, can exploit the most
advanced technologies with the intent to lower costs by reducing
the number of operators. Wind and solar projects can essentially
eliminate any labor requirements related to fuel supply. If the objective of energy policy is job creation, we should prioritize new
oil and natural gas pipelines, whose construction lasts many years,
and nuclear power plants, where safety concerns and associated
regulations dictate certain levels of redundant employees.
The Green Economy Will Promote Technology Jobs
The commercial growth of renewable power will serve as a catalyst for employment in the development and manufacturing of the
technological and physical components of generating facilities.
24
However, there is no reason that these employment gains will be in

geographic areas proximate to the renewable generation. Nothing
unique about the production of components for renewable power
facilities dictates that they be produced within our shores.
The U.S. will attract and retain jobs for producing wind turbines
and solar panels based on the same economically competitive circumstances that make the country attractive or unattractive for
the production of silicon chips and cell phones. The fact that a
job is created by the green economy will not, by itself, overcome
the cost, educational, and regulatory impediments that are inhibiting domestic employment in other technological areas.
Sound energy policy is critical to enhancing employment opportunities. Production facilities are increasingly energy-intensive and ever-more dependent on enhanced electric reliability.
Our ability to provide reliable energy at competitive prices must
be a critical component of any jobs policy. While ideally, in the
long term, renewable energy will be a positive contributor to
these necessary goals, in the short term, the transition to renewable energy is likely to increase prices and present system operators with unprecedented challenges to maintaining reliability.
In 1973, President Richard Nixon launched Project Independence with the objective that, by 1980, the nation could meet
Americas energy needs from Americas own energy resources.
However, the ensuing decades have demonstrated that achieving
such energy objectives demands difficult trade-offs among cost,
reliability, environmental, and safety objectives. These dynamics
have frustrated our governmental entities in their efforts to implement sustained, integrated, and consistent energy initiatives.
Adding jobs promotion as another piece of the energy policy puzzle injects a largely irrelevant, but highly political, distraction.
Renewable energy must remain an indispensable element of our
nations energy policy and future. We should not expose future
generations to the long-term geopolitical and environmental costs
of remaining a fossil fueldependent society. Green economy proponents, however, should understand that promoting renewable
energy as an effective means to combat double-digit unemploymentwhile politically expedient to enact legislation and win
electionsis a risky and inherently short-term strategy. Any inability of renewable power to generate the promised employment
growth will be seized by competing politicians to challenge the
entire concept of renewable power. Renewable energy is simply too
important to be reduced to just another vacuous political slogan.
Renewable power advocates would do better to remember
Commissioner Simons teaching: Renewable energy is not a religion. The multiplicity of economic and environmental benefits
that renewable power offers as a fuel choice, independent of
illusory promises of green jobs, warrant that it remain the critical building block of our nations energy future.
Steven F. Greenwald (stevegreenwald@dwt.com) and
Jeffrey P. Gray (jeffgray@dwt.com) are partners in the Davis
Wright Tremaine LLP Energy Practice Group.
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
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2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST
U.S. Confronts Pipeline Gaps While

Europe Juggles Renewables and Debt
U.S. optimism has been restored by reports of abundant, reasonably priced natural gas to fuel most new generation; however, huge gaps in the fuel delivery system (thousands of miles of pipelines are needed) will soon challenge
gas plant development. Meanwhile, the cloud of sovereign debt hangs over
all major capital projects in Europe, where the UK moves ahead with new
nuclear projects while many of its neighbors shut the door on nuclear and
struggle to finance their commitment to renewables.
By Kennedy Maize, Charles Butcher, and Dr. Robert Peltier, PE
ts the economy, stupid. That pungent phrase coined by legendary

politico James Carville guided the
successful 1992 presidential campaign of
Bill Clinton. Today, 20 years later, Carvilles
dictum might well serve as the guidepost for
another presidential campaign and for the nations energy future.
In the past four years, the U.S. has seen an
uneven recovery from a deep recession to no
or extremely slow growth, with 2011 shaping up as a disappointing year, but one with
real economic growth. Goldman Sachs Inc.
has estimated 2011s gross domestic product
(GDP) growth at a rather anemic 1.5%. Thirdquarter GDP growth was just 1%, and Goldman predicted the final quarter will be only
slightly higher. Electricity production growth
for the year looks to be a meager 0.3%.
The shape of the economy for 2012 is
unclear, although few economists predict
boom times. Last summer, the great fear was
a steep decline in the economy, a doubledip recession, with a return to the economic
downturn of 20072008. Wall Street odds
makers were pegging the chances of a double
dipper at about 35%. However, that has not
happened, and anxiety about a return to recession has receded. In November 2011, the
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth through 2013 but
did not predict economic decline ahead, only
more slow growth. As a result, the Fed said it
would take no new steps to stimulate growth
in the worlds largest economy. The U.S. central bank predicted economic growth of 2.5%
to 2.9% in 2012, considerably below its 3.3%
to 3.7% forecast in June last year.
Private forecasters are also predicting slow
but positive economic growth for the U.S.
economy. JP Morgan is pegging growth at
0.5% for the first quarter of 2012. Citigroup is
projecting 2012 GDP will increase by 2.1%.
26
Defining Our Times

The National Bureau of Economic Research,
the recorder of U.S. economic growth, defines
a recession as a significant decline in economic
activity spread across the economy, lasting more
than a few months, normally visible in real
GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. In concrete
terms, the generally accepted rule of thumb for a
recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. In a recent survey of 39 economists by
USA Today, only one predicted a drop in GDP
in any of the coming five quarters. Recession is
not our base case, but you have to consider other
outcomes, investment analyst Janney Montgomery Scott told the newspaper.
Last April, in its Annual Energy Outlook,
the Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (DOEs IEA) noted that
2010 economic growth partially offset the
decline in 2009. The EIAs best estimate of
2011 economic growth was 2.7%; its low
estimate was just over 2%, and its high case
was over 3.0%. Since then, the EIA has scaled
back its growth assumptions even further. In its
September short-term outlook, the statistical
agency said it is now assuming that U.S. real
gross domestic product grows by 1.5 percent
this year [2011] and 1.9 percent next year.
The EIA notes that the economy drives
energy use: Energy consumption per capita
declined from 337 million Btu in 2007 to 308
million Btu in 2009, the lowest level since
1967. In the [Annual Energy Outlook 2011]
Reference case, energy use per capita increases
slightly through 2013, as the economy recovers from the 20082009 economic downturn.
Many economists posit a direct relationship
between economic growth and the growth
in demand for electric power. Although the
one-to-one relationship that characterized
earlier periods no longer exists, it does seem
to be the case that more economic activity
www.powermag.com
demands more electric power. The current

conventional wisdom is that a percentage increase in economic growth yields an increase
in electric demand of roughly 0.6%.
Demand growth has real consequences
in the electricity business. The Tennessee
Valley Authority (TVA), for example, is justifying its decision to resume work on the
long-mothballed Bellefonte nuclear plant
with an estimated long-term growth in regional electric demand of around 1%. If the
economy continues slow growth during the
next several years, or if a double-dip recession occurs, TVAs Bellefonte decision could
be costly to the regions electric customers. A
recent Nashville Tennessean article noted that
the Electric Power Research Institute is projecting annual long-term electricity demand
growth thats only half what TVA projects.
The notion of a lock-step relationship between economic growth and electric demand
has skeptics. One is Jim Rogers, the long-time
industry executive now in charge of North
Carolinas Duke Energy. Rogers told an industry conference recently that the past 50 years
trend of economic growth driving electric sales
growth is changing. Rogers said at the Edison
Electric Institutes financial conference in Orlando in November that structural changes in
the U.S. economy are altering the relationship
between the economy and electricity. I do not
see the manufacturing base coming back. Our
economy is becoming less energy intensive,
by 3% each year, he said (Figure 1).
Due to slow economic growth and recent
changes in the economy and the electricity
industry, the overall capacity of the electricity system in the U.S. and Canada is in good
shape, according to the North American
Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC). NERCs
2011 summer estimate, for example, found
a 25.1% reserve margin in the U.S. and a
35.9% margin in Canada.
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The EIA notes that summer 2011 was somewhat warmer than usual, with cooling degreedays through August about 2.8% higher than
the same period in 2010. That put no real strain
on the U.S. power system, except in Texas,
whose grid is isolated from the rest of the country, where a prolonged heat wave and drought
caused some outages and voltage reductions.
For 2012, the EIA says it expects total consumption of electricity to shrink by 0.6%, compared
to projected 0.3% growth for 2011 (Figure 2).
If electricity demand continues to grow
slowly in the future as it has for the past
few years, then the NERC assessment of
reserve margins seems to be spot on. The

weak link, according to NERCs 2011
Long-Term Reliability Assessment of system reliability, consists of recent and expected Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) regulatory actions. NERC believes
the EPAs regulatory onslaught will cause a
significant number of coal-fired plant closures (see sidebar NERC Points Finger at
EPA for Risking System Reliability).
Coal Under Siege

The year 2011 ended with coal in seeming
decline. Utilities across the coal belt an-
1. Electricity consumption is fairly flat. Total U.S. electricity consumption grew only
0.3% in 2011, and the EIA expects 2012 electricity consumption to decrease by 0.6% compared
to 2011. Last year, the EIA predicted that electricity growth would be stagnant in 2011 and then
resume long-term growth of about 1.5% per year. Historical data show that from 2000 to 2009,
demand grew by 0.5% per year. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011
10.642 10.678 10.611
Consumption
Billion kWh/day
10
9
8%
6%
4%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.1%
2%
0.8% 1.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
2%
4%
4.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 6%
Annual growth
4.7%
Percentage change from previous year
11
2. Future electricity growth is flat. The EIA predicts that electricity growth will be a
negative 0.6% during 2012 but will recover and grow at 1% per year in following years. Source:
EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011
History
12
Projections
Electricity demand increase (%)
10
3-year moving average
8
6
Trend line
4
2
0
2
1950
28
1970
1990
2012 2020

www.powermag.com
2035
nounced plant retirements, and the Sierra

Club claimed victory! over 153 coal projects in the U.S., up from 123 such claims last
year. The environmental group got a major
boost for its Beyond Coal campaign when
New Yorks billionaire Republican mayor
Michael Bloomberg announced a commitment of $50 million of his personal fortune
over four years to the project. Michael Brune,
the clubs executive director, pronounced the
gift a game changer, from our perspective.
Thats likely an overstatement. Its hard
to see how an environmental group, even
as well-funded as the Sierra Club, can have
much influence on the future of coal beyond
the margins. Its really about the economy
and continuing changes in fuel markets that
make natural gas, not coal, the fuel of choice
for most new generation.
The DOEs National Energy Technology
Laboratory coal power plant database tracks
the continuing decline in new coal plant activity, reflecting the soft economy. At the end of
2010, the latest period for which the agency
has reliable data, 12 coal-fired electric generating plants were under construction in the
U.S., down from 22 the year before. That represents a decline of 6,135 MW, down from
13,755 MW in 2010 to 7,619 MW in 2011.
As we noted last year, the coal plant pipeline is emptying, and the EIA projects a gradual decline in coals share of the generating
market, falling from 48% in 2011 to 45% in
2035, so the Sierra Clubs celebration may
be premature by decades (Figure 4). Fewer
new plants are entering the construction
queue and more are closing down. Last year
American Electric Power announced it would
shutter some 6,000 MW of coal capacity. As
noted by Industrial Info Resources, Duke Energy, Southern Co., Louisville Gas and Electric Co., and Luminant have also announced
major closures. These constitute the Sierra
Clubs claimed victories.
Many of the shuttered plants are small
and antiquated, kept alive, according to some
commentators, mostly to serve as allowancegenerators if cap-and-trade environmental legislation had become a reality. Once it
became clear that cap-and-trade was deadand-buried, there was little incentive to keep
inefficient, elderly coal plants alive.
In fact, the DOE, through the EIA, is
standing firm with its estimate that new EPA
regulations governing the operation of coalfired plants will cause only 8.8 GW of plant
closures in its base case analysis in the coming years. That small number of closures is
inconsistent with the large number of analyses performed by independent organizations
that have concluded that around 50 GW are
in jeopardy (Figure 5). (Also see The Future
of Coal in the May 2011 issue of POWER in
POWER January 2012

our archives at www.powermag.com.) Even
Energy Secretary Steven Chu said, Were
going to see massive retirements within the
next five, eight years. In fact, more than 8
GW of coal-fired plant closures have been
announced just during the past 12 months.
In announcing coal plant retirements, the
utilities uniformly blamed prospective federal environmental rules, particularly the
EPAs pending Cross-State Air Pollution
Rule (CSAPR). Dallas-based Luminant, the
largest electric generator in the Lone Star
State, said last fall that its decision to shut
two coal-fired plants and derate two others
was entirely driven by the CSAPR. A study

by National Economic Research Associates
claimed that the EPA rule will cause electric
rates to spike by as much as 23% and cost the
country 1.4 million jobs by 2020.
The CSAPR is just one of a battery of
coal-centric regulations that the EPA is considering, including air toxics, ozone, and coal
ash controls. Together, they could represent a
major challenge to the nations cheapest fossil fuel.
But there are reasons to treat the regulatory threat with at least a grain of salt. Last
September, Exelons top lobbyist, Joseph
Dominguez, said the utility industry can

absorb the new rules without major disruptions. The rules have been in the works for
about a decade and the electric utility industry is well-positioned to respond, with more
than 60% of coal-fired power plants already
equipped with pollution control, he said.
A Vectran official earlier said his company
could also meet the terms of the cross-state
rule with little difficulty.
An August report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) said that utility industry warnings of a regulatory train wreck for
coal are overblown. The primary impacts of
NERC Points Finger at EPA for Risking System Reliability

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. downward trend is characteristic of these need for reserve capacity to support variable
(NERC) is required to provide an assessment projections as the early years provide more generation. In short, ERCOT cannot rely on
of the reliability and adequacy of the bulk certainty since new generation is either its wind resources to cover peak demand (only
power system of North America each year in-service or under construction with firm 8.7% of installed wind capacity is predicted
to Congress. The much-anticipated 2011 commitments. In later years, there is less to be available to cover on-peak demand),
Long-Term Reliability Assessment arrived certainty about the resources that will be and more gas-fired plants will be required to
chase wind generation (Figure 3).
in late November and did not mince words needed to meet peak demand.
NERC predicts that the NERC-wide summer
when discussing the impact of the Environpeak demand growth for 2011 will be only
mental Protection Agencys back-to-back- Except in ERCOT
to-back regulatory attack on the nations NERC suggests that this downward trend 1.27% (11.7 GW), the lowest since NERC beelectric supply: One of the greatest risks may be reflecting the industrys uncertain- gan producing its long-term assessments in
identified by the NERC Planning Committee ty in project plans for replacement capac- 1967. NERC is predicting only 1.23% growth
(high likelihood, high consequence), is the ity due to retiring generation and overall in peak demand for 2012. Growth in firm
capacity will be principally gas-fired, propotential impacts of future environmental cautiousness of generation developers.
The exception to the rule seems to be the jected at much higher levels than in past
regulations.
The report notes that, While some environ- Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), 10-year forecasts (about 47 GW concepmental regulations have been finalized (i.e., where the reserve margin decreased 15 per- tual and 45 GW planned), while net coal
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule), others such as centage points during the past year and 20 capacity is projected to decline over the 10the Cooling Water Intake Structures and the points since 2008. NERC concluded that More year period by about 8 GW.
The complete 559-page report is available
Air Toxics Standards for Utilities have not yet resources will be needed in Texas to support
been finalized. The latter two proposed rules projected peak demand, potentially signifi- at http://www.nerc.com/files/2011LTRA_
have been identified as having a potentially cant generator retirements, and an increased Final.pdf.
higher impact for electric reliability, causing
significant generator retirements and a tight 3. Future fuel mix. ERCOT isnt the only area where wind and solar generation is expected to increase in the next 10 years. The largest change in the fuel mix is the increase
compliance schedule.
in wind and solar, offsetting lost coal capacity and balanced by a slight increase in gas
Supplies Are Adequate
generation. Source: NERC, 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
When discussing long-term resource adequacy, NERC concluded that, In general,

long-term planning (beyond five years) is
inherently uncertain due to, among other
things, varying market practices and regulatory conditions, such as environmental
regulations. However, the report also notes
that the slow economic recovery over the
past two years has produced higher planning reserve margin projections in the latter years of the assessment period. In fact,
NERC found that through 2021, reserve margins remain well above the 15% reference
level, although the trend is downward. This
January 2012 POWER
2011
2021
Other renewable
resources 7.6%
Other renewable
resources 4.3%
Oil
4.7%
Oil
4.2%
Nuclear
10.4%
Nuclear
10.1%
Gas 38.5%
Gas 37.7%
Hydro 12.9%
Coal 30%
www.powermag.com
Hydro 12.4%
Coal 27.1%
29

4. Coal use drops in 2012. Coal consumption in 2011 was up slightly over the prior year
but is expected to drop in 2012. Data are presented as a percent change from the previous year.
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011
40%
Total consumption
Electric power sector
Retail and general industry
Coke plants
Forecast
U.S. coal consumption growth (percentage

change from previous year)
30%
20%
10%
1.7% 1.2%
1.2%1.6%
4.2%4.6%
1.7%1.7%
10%
20%
30%
2009
2010
2011
2012
5. Comparison of predicted capacity retired due to new EPA regulations.

Many organizations have prepared predictions of the amount of coal-fired generation expected
to be lost as a result of the EPAs recent regulatory measures. The strict and moderate cases
reflect different assumptions about the final rules. Source: The Committee on Energy and Commerce, Hearing on The American Energy Initiative, September 12, 2011
Moderate
Strict
90
80
Capacity (GW)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
CR
A
I/A
Br
EP
at
tle
R
Gr
Ca
ou
pit
p
al
M
ar
ke
ts
EP
R
EE
I
EL
NR
Ci
ti
EP
A
FB
Be
FE
R
rn
ste C (O
ER
in
)
Re
se
ar
M
ch
.J.
Cr
Br
ad edit
ley
Su
iss
&
e
As
so
cia
te
IN
s
GA
A/
NE
IC
FI
RC
nt
er
na
tio
na
l
many of the rules, said the CRS, will largely be on coal-fired plants more than 40 years
old that have not, until now, installed stateof-the-art pollution controls. Many of these
plants are inefficient and are being replaced
by more efficient combined cycle natural gas
plants, a development likely to be encouraged if the price of competing fuelnatural
gascontinues to be low, almost regardless
of EPA rules.
The unstable U.S. economy has also complicated development of advanced coal-fired
technologies, notably the on-again, off-again
FutureGen project aimed at demonstrating
capture and storage of carbon dioxide from

coal combustion. First announced by the Bush
administration in 2003, the project has faced
a series of obstacles. Most recently, Ameren,
the utility that would host the project, said in
mid-November that its shaky financial condition means it cant continue with the project.
According to The New York Times, Ameren
told its partners it cant go forward, even with
$1 billion in federal subsidies in hand, and
has decided to withdraw from the project and
retire the 200-MW Unit 4 at its Meredosia
plant in Illinois. Meanwhile, the FutureGen
Alliance has pledged to move forward on the
30
www.powermag.com
project and possibly purchase the Ameren

plant as the site for FutureGen 2.0.
Gassed-Up
Last year, as he surveyed the generating landscape, industry veteran John Rowe, outgoing
Exelon chief, predicted that coal will remain
King. Rowe added, Gas will be Queen.
Unlimited Gas Supplies. Indeed, gas
is poised to gain generating market share
through all of 2012, and well beyond. As our
Global Gas Glut report (Sept. 2011) demonstrated, the combination of an old oil industry technology, hydraulic fracturing, and
a new, directional drilling technology has
turned natural gas into a truly revolutionary
force in generation. Gas, which until about
five years ago was regarded as a diminishing
resource, now seems capable of fueling the
U.S. energy economy on a scale only previously claimed for coal. Fracking and horizontal wells have made it possible to produce gas
cheaply in many areas of the U.S., even close
to population centers and industrial markets.
How much shale gas is available? The
figures are astonishing. Both the DOEs EIA
and the Interior Departments U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have produced astounding resource estimates. Last year, the EIA
estimated the amount of inferred reserves
in the Marcellus Formation in the Mid-Atlantic states at 410 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The
Marcelluswhich underlies major portions
of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia,
and West Virginiais just one of a half-dozen major shale gas formations. The USGS
estimated undiscovered resources of shale
gas in the Marcellus at 84 Tcf. Both estimates
are more than 10 times previous agency predictions about the prevalence of shale gas.
The two figures are not in conflict, despite
some hyperbolic press reports to the contrary; instead, they are additive. According
to an analysis by the nonpartisan Washington
environmental think tank Resources for the
Future, In theory, as the 84 Tcf becomes discovered and evaluated, some of the estimate
will be added to the amount of inferred reserves. Overall, the EIA now estimates total
U.S. natural gas reserves at 2,552 Tcf, with
shale gas constituting 827 Tcf. Prior to 2005,
shale gas made up only about 4% of U.S. production. By 2010, that figure had risen to 23%
the energy forecasting agency says. Between
2006 and 2010, shale gas production grew by
48% annually, according to the EIA.
Estimates of growth in shale gas production
are uniformly bullish. By 2035, the EIA predicts that gas from shale formations will make
up half of U.S. gas production. However, there
are issues that remain unsolved, including how
to move this new gas from where it can be accessed to where it will be used, given the scar-
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6. Natural gas prices to remain stable. The EIA predicts a very slight increase in average natural gas prices during 2012. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011.
Dollars per thousand cubic feet
25
Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price

Forecast
20
15
10
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
7. Natural gas usage growth continues. The use of natural gas grew in 2011, and
growth is expected to continue in 2012. Gas use for electric power is expected to grow the most
in 2012. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011.
Other
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2009
2010
2011
Bars: usage, change from prior year (%)
Lines: Total consumption (billion cubic ft/day)
Electric power
Residential and commercial
Industrial
Total consumption
Consumption forecast
2012
city of available pipelines (see Transporting

New Natural Gas Supplies, next page). How
best to use these new natural gas resources is
another subject of hot debate.
Along with the large resource projections,
analysts note that gas prices are likely to remain stable (Figure 6). The great abundance
of gas means growing demand is unlikely to
put pressure on prices anytime soon. Shale
gas producers such as Chesapeake Energy
are routinely offering generators 10-year fuel
supply contracts at stable prices (Figure 7).
Shale gas is often found with crude oil, as
in the Bakken Formation in North Dakota,
or with natural gas liquids in the Marcellus
shale. Those higher-value commodities mean
that the breakeven cost for natural gas has
fallen to zero, further insulation against gas
price volatility, according to an analysis by
the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Recent figures from the Goldman Sachs
Commodity Index (GSCI) demonstrate the
newfound stability of natural gas prices. Between 2008 and 2010, in the teeth of a major
worldwide recession, the GSCI doubled. But
gas prices were flat, as gas is now isolated
from external forces that have driven its price
in the past, such as the price of crude oil.
Another Layer of Regulation. This gas
supply celebration, however, is about to be
crashed by an EPA and DOE that are bound
and determined to pile federal regulations on
top of state oversight that will surely throttle
future shale gas development. One of the
more serious criticisms of using fracking
technology to reach natural gas hidden a mile
or more below the surface is that the chemicals used in the process contaminate nearby
32
www.powermag.com
water wells, usually reaching no more than a

few hundred feet deep. During testimony before the U.S. House Oversight Committee in
late May 2011, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson responded to questions about the safety
of fracking by saying, Im not aware of any
proven case where the fracking process itself
has affected water. A study by Duke University researchers released in May also found
no confirmed cases of an underground
source of drinking water contaminated as a
result of a hydraulic fracturing operation.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 exempted
fracking from EPA regulations under the
Safe Drinking Water Act, shifting that regulatory responsibility to the individual states.
Even so, the EPA, in 2010, began a study on
the relationship between hydraulic fracturing and drinking water, apparently looking
for alternative means to regulate the shale
gas extraction industry. That search seems
to have been productive. In late October, the
EPA announced plans to develop natural gas
well wastewater standards. In late November,
the EPA announced plants to initiate a dialogue process to seek public input on a set of
reporting requirements on the fluids used for
fracking, not the mud, under the Toxic Substances Control Act.
At the same time, a consortium of state
regulators and industry stakeholders called
FracFocus is busy developing a set of voluntary chemical reporting standards, while the
FRAC Act, introduced in both the Senate and
House, would add another layer of federal
oversight to the state regulation of gas wells.
Finally, a number of environmental organizations have asked the EPA to regulate each
well by developing greenhouse gas emission
standards for gas wells.
A final note about U.S. gas supplies: Offshore oil and gas production is quickly declining, not because of well depletion but because
of federal government policies. Today, only
2.2% of offshore areas available for lease have
been leased for oil and natural gas production.
Overall, oil and natural gas production on federal lands has declined by 40% since 2000,
and sharply since 2003. The good news is that
oil and natural gas production has increased
on private and state lands over the same period. For example, North Dakota oil production has increased 250% over the past decade.
It is no coincidence that North Dakota has the
lowest unemployment and fastest job growth
rate (twice that of Texas) in the U.S.
The Death of the Nuclear

Renaissance
The much-anticipated reflowering of the U.S.
nuclear industry in 2011 turned into a wake
instead, and the sector is likely to remain
dead in 2012.
POWER January 2012

When Congress passed the Energy Policy
Act in 2005, the premise was that some simple
federal supportloan guarantees, special tax
considerations, and the likewould give the
nuclear generating business a bit of government
oomph needed to get the industry building new
nuclear plants. The concept behind the legislation was that the industry only needed a modest
boost to overcome financial obstacles. The U.S.
would then see a rebirth of a proven generating
technology that has seen little new construction
activity in more than 30 years.
The crux of the case for new nuclear was
that conditions were ripe for rebirth with
some midwifery from Uncle Sam. The case
for new nukes seemed compelling. Low fuel
costs and the absence of greenhouse gas
emissions from nuclear would overcome the
new plants high capital costs. It seemed, in

the famous words of a former CIA director in
another context, a slam dunk.
But a few untoward events intervened: the
arrival of cheap, plentiful natural gas; collapsing debt markets and a stumbling world
economy that reduced electricity demand;
and an earthquake and tsunami in Japan. For
2012, the story of nuclear power, at least in
the developed world, looks like a rerun of the
1993 box office hit Groundhog Day.
Today, only one new nuclear plant is under
construction in the U.S. That plant, the TVAs
Watts Bar Unit 2, is a restart of a project the
giant, government-affiliated power agency
mothballed in the 1980s. The Watts Bar
project is already behind schedule and over
budget, according to the TVA. The utilitys
board has approved restarting another stalled

project, its Bellefonte unit, but has yet to get
a green light from federal regulators.
Southern Company, with a conditional
$8 billion federal loan guarantee in place,
insists it will go forward with its Vogtle station expansion but needs Wall Street to sign
on before the feds will release the guarantee.
Southern CEO Tom Fanning recently told
Fortune magazine that his company is committed to going ahead with the two new units
at Vogtle and has the size and deep pockets
to afford its $6.4 billion (46%) share of the
project. Southern has said it plans to build the
project even if Washington bails out of it.
But Atlanta-based Southern is now the only
company in the queue for the federal governments nuclear power plant loan guarantees.
Transporting New Natural Gas Supplies

In our national exuberance over possibly a
century of natural gas supply reserves within
the continental U.S., we have overlooked one
small detail: How will all this new natural gas
be moved from well to point of use?
To environmentalists, natural gas is a
bridge fuel to a future dominated by renewable energy sources, where the cost of
electricity is secondary. To the electric power
industry, electricity produced by abundant
quantities of reasonably priced natural gas
is the path to stable electricity prices that
advantage U.S. manufacturers in the global
market. Already, a number of utilities have
either repowered or replaced existing coalfired plants with modern, high-efficiency
combined cycle plants to reduce emissions
and eliminate the other undesirable sideeffects of coal-fired electricity. However, this
fuel displacement process will take time and
cost hundreds of billions of dollars before it is
completed. At that time, natural gas will become a staple fuel, not a milepost on the way
to an exclusively renewable energy future.
Consider Coal-to-Gas Conversions

The costs of building new, high-efficiency
gas-fired combined cycle plants are well
understood and pose little regulatory, performance, or completion risk to a company
building them. Another advantage is that
these plants can be built, at a small loss in
efficiency, to sip water and produce almost
no waste products. There is very little not
to like about a gas-fired combined cycle
plant.
However, industry will soon be challenged
by a lack of natural gas supply pipelines with
January 2012 POWER
adequate capacity to move gas from the field

to the plant. The American Public Power Association (APPA) recently commissioned a
report that explored the costs and risks of
building additional natural gas pipelines to
supply these newly built or repowered gasfired plants. The report, Implications of
Greater Reliance on Natural Gas for Electricity
Generation (available at www.publicpower
.org), explored several scenarios, including
one where all existing coal-fired generation
is replaced with gas plants (thereby avoiding
many transmission issues).
The current demand for natural gas in the
U.S. is about 23 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per
year, only slightly higher than the 1972 peak
of 22 Tcf. If the U.S. were to convert all 335
GW of coal-fired capacity (at an assumed 72%
capacity factor) to more efficient natural gas
plants, then U.S. natural gas demand would
rise to about 37 Tcf, a 50% increase or 14 Tcf
(38 Bcf per day), in 2030, when the conversions were estimated to be completed. The EIA
base case assumes only a 2 Tcf increase for new
gas-fired plants in 2030, for comparison.
Cost of Conversions
In the U.S., about 60 Bcf of gas move
through 300,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines each day. Roughly half of
those pipelines were built during the past
40 years. The APPA study concluded that,
under the full-switch scenario, 21 states
would have insufficient pipeline capacity
to support the switch. In fact, eight of the
30 largest interstate pipelines currently
have load factors greater than 80%, and
www.powermag.com
five of those eight are close to 90%.

Using the existing pipeline usage figures
and the expected gas demand for the fullswitch scenario, we can estimate the cost
of the needed new gas transmission pipelines. The Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, a trade organization that
represents natural gas pipeline companies,
estimated in a recent report that moving 25
Bcfd of natural gas will require 38,000 miles
of new pipeline and associated compression
equipment stations, at a cost of about $129
billion. For our purposes, that cost would
increase about 50% for the 38 Bcfd required
for a complete fuel switchsay 55,000
miles of pipeline and $200 billion.
To the cost of the new pipeline, the cost
of the new gas-fired plants must be added,
approximately $335 billion (at $1,000/kW installed), and the cost of new gas storage and
gathering facilitiesaccording to the APPA
study, about $55 billion. In sum, the cost of
converting the entire fleet of coal-fired plants
to natural gas would be about $590 billion.
One last point: Natural gas pipeline work
is alive and well in the U.S. Between 1990
and 2008, pipeline to carry about 53 Bcfd
was put in the ground. From 2008 through
2010, almost 8,500 miles of gas pipeline
were installed. The cost of pipeline construction is well defined, and cost-recovery
mechanisms are set by the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission. In fact, it appears
that building gas pipelines to natural gas
repowered coal plants may well be quicker
and cheaper than building new transmission lines.
33

The two other major seekers after Washingtons largessNRG and Constellation Energyhave dropped out. Chicago-based Exelon,
the nations largest nuclear generator with 17
units, and would-be acquirer of Constellation,
does not share Southerns passion for new
nuclear plants. CEO John Rowe told reporters in November that reviving Constellations
plan to add a new unit at the Calvert Cliffs site
is almost inconceivable. The Calvert Cliffs
project, Rowe said, is utterly uneconomic.
Lucas Davis, an analyst for Resources for the
Future, predicts a grim future for nuclear new
build in the U.S. In a recent paper, he lays out
the economic case against nuclear that Rowe has
perceived. Even excluding financing costs, he
writes, current estimates of construction costs
show that nuclear is substantially more expensive than coal and natural gas. A recent U.S.
Department of Energy study reports overnight
costs for nuclear of $5,300 per kilowatt, versus
$2,800 for coal and $1,000 for natural gas. This
study was completed just before the Fukushima
crisis and thus does not incorporate any cost increases due to closer regulatory scrutiny.
Which Way Will Wind Blow?

With gas gaining speed while coal and nuclear
development is becalmed, how are renewables
faring? The future looks much like the past:
Live by the government or die by the government. While renewables (including hydro)
make up only about 10% of total U.S. electric
generation380 billion kWh out of a total
3,779 billion kWh, according to the EIAthey
have seen solid growth over the past decade,
and theres more to come, albeit from a small
base. Wind power will grow about 22% during
2011, but growth in 2012 is expected to drop to
about 13% because the production tax credits
are expected to expire at the end of 2012. Hydro
power was up 23% in 2011, the highest level
since 1999, due to high levels of precipitation

in the Pacific Northwest, but hydro is expected
to return to normal levels in 2012, offsetting the
growth of wind power (Figure 8).
According to many analysts, that growth
is almost entirely a result of government
policies, including state-driven generating
mandates and federal and state tax subsidies.
Again this year, the renewable energy industry will marshal its forces to try to convince
Congress that renewing the goodies that keep
the self-proclaimed green power growing is
good for the nation. The extension of energy
tax benefits has become an annual event in
Washington energy politics.
Key elements of the federal subsidy, major drivers of the growth, are the production
tax credit and the 1603 Treasury Grant program. The tax credit provides a deduction of
2.3 cents/kWh for projects in production. The
1603 program allows developers to take their
presumed tax credits up front in cash. Greentech Media notes, This tax bill reduction can
be transferred to investors. Wall Street and other players still raking in the big bucks despite
the floundering economy are willing to buy
into wind projects to get those tax credits.
But the renewable subsidies have been a
sometimes thing. Congress has let the production tax credit expire, if only briefly, three
times in the past decade. Renewable lobbying
groups have pushed for years for multi-year
extension of the tax credits, without much
success. As this article was written, the 1603
program was due to expire by the end 2011,
with little prospect of renewal.
The production tax credit expires at the end
of 2012, and the lobbying is already gearing up
for a four-year extension. The renewable industries are pegging their pitch to jobs. Denise
Bode of the American Wind Energy Association
(AWEA) said in a recent press release, Wind
8. Few new plant builds. According to EIA data, virtually all of the new plants installed in 2011
were either gas-fired or renewable, principally wind. For 2012, that trend continues; the lost coal capacity is replaced by gas-fired plants. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2011
Coal
Natural gas
Petroleum
Nuclear
Hydropower
Renewables
Other sources
GWh/day
53.0%
51.9%
51.6%
50.9%
50.3%
50.0%
46.1%
46.6%
45.4%
44.0%
17.5%
18.6%
19.5%
20.9%
22.4%
22.2%
24.2%
24.7%
24.9%
25.9%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
6,000
2,000
0
34
With the economy continuing to lag and equity and credit markets showing great swings,
merger and acquisition activity slowed considerably in the third quarter of 2011, according to
a report from accounting and consulting firm
PwC US. The third quarter saw nine deals,
with a total value of $50 milliona nearrecord low for the three-month period ending
September 30. During the same period in
2010, PwC said there were 14 deals worth a
total of $10.9 billion. For 2011, the deals were
fewer and smaller than in past years.
John McConomy of PwC said, A noticeable
absence of large strategic buyers in the third
quarter resulted, in part, from uncertainty around
the fate of regulated transactions, causing dealmakers to focus on closings and successful integration of deals announced throughout the first
The Top Stories of 2011
10,000
4,000
Industry Recombinations
Forecast
12,000
8,000
energy means 75,000 jobs across the U.S. today and could support 500,000 American jobs
across the country in manufacturing, construction, engineering, development and other fields
less than 20 years from now according to a U.S.
Department of Energy study.
Upon closer inspection, the wind manufacturing jobs claims put forward by Bode
are not supported by the facts. According to a
recent CRS report, U.S. Wind Turbine Manufacturing: Federal Support for an Emerging
Industry, released in September 2011, the
jobs created by the wind industry remained
flat during the past three years, at an estimated 20,000 total jobs. More interestingly,
the report shows that the majority the 75,000
jobs cited by AWEA are in finance and consulting services, contracting and engineering
services, and transportation and logistics
all temporary jobs. In 2010, according to the
report, a total of 3,500 jobs were in construction and only 4,000 permanent jobs were in
plant operations and maintenance. Will future
wind projects add more manufacturing jobs,
as AWEA claims? That depends on whether
developers buy turbines in the U.S. or elect
to purchase from lower-cost manufacturers in
South Korea, China, or other countries.
www.powermag.com
What 2011 industry stories did POWER editorial staff members think were the most
important? To find out, visit our web site,
www.powermag.com. Youll find our lists,
with links to coverage in POWER-branded
publications, in the web-only story titled
Top Five Power Industry Stories of 2011
under the Web Exclusives header on our
home page and associated with the archives for this Jan. 2012 issue.
POWER January 2012
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In China, four new AP1000 plants are currently under construction
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Westinghouse nuclear technology will help provide future generations
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Check us out at www.westinghousenuclear.com
Grading My 2011 Industry Projections

Last year in this forecasting article, I graded the industry predictions I made a year earlier in my Speaking of Power editorial.
The positive response I received for doing so was unexpected, so
Ill stick my neck out again. You may recall that, overall, I gave
myself a B+ last year, hitting several predictions square and whiffing a couple more. Heres how I rate my 2011 predictions.
10. Electricity Use Remains Flat. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that electricity usage would see an
increase of up to 4.7% in 2011, rebounding from the economic
slowdown and returning to 2007 levels. I predicted that electricity usage would remain flat from 2010 through 2011 because the
stimulus funds would only push the economic pain into 2011.
Using EIA year-to-date data, consumption is up only 0.3% for the
year through August (the latest available). Thats flat consumption, so I get an A.
9. Wind Power Projects Are Becalmed. I predicted that, despite the lobbying muscle of the American Wind Energy Association, there would be no serious movement toward establishing
a national renewable portfolio standard in 2011. In fact, how
much have you heard recently about President Obamas proposed
Clean Energy Standard, which was floated during his State of the
Union address in January 2011? Both standards are dead and
buried, and I get an A.
8. New Plant Construction Is Mostly Gas. I predicted that
perhaps 8 GW to 10 GW of new natural gasfired capacity would
be built to replace coal and chase nondispatchable renewables,
such as wind and solar. EIA data shows that 9.988 GW of gas-fired
net summer capacity should come online in 2011, although only
part-year data is available. I couldnt make this up if I wanted to.
I get an A.
7. Fracking for Gas Causes a Backlash. I predicted that the
fracking controversy would mushroom in 2011 to the point that
it would stall drilling new unconventional gas fields. In 2011,
the controversy hasnt progressed that far, but it is heating up.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is pushing ahead on
establishing gas well water treatment standards, and the Department of Energys Shale Gas Subcommittee in August called on the
EPA to establish limits on methane emissions and issued a lengthy
set of recommendations for state and federal agencies and the gas
industry. The EPA has set April 3 to release new environmental
standards for fracking wells. The issue is simmering but hasnt
mushroomed, yet. I get a C for predicting the trend.
6. The EPA Grades Wet Ash. I predicted that the EPA would
grade wet ash from power plants as non-hazardous in 2011.
Given the EPAs rather full regulatory calendar, coal ash rules that
were expected this summer were delayed until next summer. I get
an incomplete.
5. Utilities Lose Interest in Biomass Conversions. I predicted
that the high market price of electricity from utility-scale biomass
projects would kill existing and stall new projects. The only utility-scale projects under construction in the U.S. I could find are
the 100-MW Nacogdoches Generating Facility, owned by Southern
Company and located in eastern Texas, scheduled to begin testing in 2012, and the 100-MW American Renewables Gainesville
36
Renewable Energy Center, Gainesville, Fla, which is expected to

enter service in 2013. Both will use bubbling bed circulating fluidized bed boiler technology. As evidence of lost interest in conversions, NRG Energy cancelled its cofiring project at Big Cajun II
because of poor crop yields, and a 24-MW project in Snowflake,
Ariz., went bankrupt when the plant wouldnt perform. Otherwise,
no new U.S. coal-to-biomass projects began construction in 2011.
However, the UKs 750-MW RWE npower project that burns wood
pellets is scheduled to begin operation in December 2011, and
Canada has several active projects. I was right in the U.S. but
wrong about other countries. I get a B.
4. Economics Come First. I suggested that very expensive integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plantssuch as the
$3.5 billion Taylorville IGCC project in upstate Illinois that was
all but dead in early 2011 but revived the last day of November
2011wouldnt pass public utility commission review in the future. Another boondoggle project: the $1.6 billion FutureGen 2.0,
which remains shaky without Ameren. Then there is Duke Powers
Edwardsport IGCC project, where costs have spiraled out of control
to $3 billion for the 630-MW plant. In October, the company asked
the utility commission for permission to pass along the overruns
to its customers; permission will likely be denied. I get a B+ for
this prediction.
3. The Smart Grid Gets Personal. I predicted that 2011 would
be the year utilities built customer enthusiasm for smart grid
technologies. An EPRI report entitled Consumer Engagement:
Facts, Myths & Motivations found that consumers have not been
adequately engaged, even though they will pay for and derive the
benefits from the upgrades. For some utilities, most of the consumer engagement seems to be focused on advanced meters under
the imprimatur of smart grid. In my opinion, the jury is still out
on this prediction, so I score another incomplete.
2. Nuclear Steps Forward. Optimistically, I predicted that
the U.S. would double the number of projects under construction during 2011. The only new project being built in the U.S.
remains the two-unit Plant Vogtle located in eastern Georgia.
Unfortunately, a slow-to-arrive combined operating license
from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is said to have delayed startup of the first unit by as much as five months, from
April to September 2016. The rest of the U.S. nuclear industry
is sitting on the sidelines, so I get a D.
1. The War on Coal Continues. Consider the Cross-State Air
Pollution Rule and the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for
Utilities pushed through in 2011 followed by the politically unpopular but delayed Greenhouse Gas and Ozone Rules plus the
Coal Combustion Residuals and Cooling Water Intake Structures
rules that are scheduled for release in 2012. Need I say more?
I get an easy A.
Like last year, I grade my overall predictions as a B+ with a
couple of incompletes that will flow over into 2012. I have also
prepared my predictions for 2012 in this months Speaking of
Power, hoping for a better report card in 2012. Your comments
are always appreciated.
Dr. Robert Peltier, PE is POWERs editor-in-chief.
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012

half of the year. Stock price volatility and debt
concerns also contributed to deal slowdown in
the third quarter and we believe many in-process and contemplated deals are being deferred
until the capital markets settle down.
Its also possible that business fission may
replace corporate fusion in the days ahead.
Following a trend evident in the oil business,
Dynegy last August split asunder, spinning
off separate coal-fired and gas-fired businesses from the Houston-based merchant generating company. The move came during a nasty
battle over the companys future between
two groups of corporate raiders: Blackstone
Group and legendary investor Carl Icahn and
Seneca Capital. According to an analysis in
the Wall Street Journal, the idea was to protect the companys hard assets as the raiders
battled over the corporate entity, with Icahn
and Seneca ultimately emerging victorious,
although owing substantial debt.
Then, in early November, after another set of
complex transactions involving the debt of the
coal-generating spinoff, Dynegy filed for bankruptcy protection. In the latest ploy, said the
newspaper, Dynegy is trying to force its unsecured creditors to play lets-make-a-deal. And if
the creditors dont play ball they will be buying a
showdown with Dynegy, Icahn and Seneca with
about $4 billion on the line. The Journals account concluded that Dynegys structural game
was complex and convoluted enough to make
Rube Goldberg proud.
The European Outlook

In Europe, too, money was tight in 2011, as it
promises to be in 2012. Previous budget crises
in Spain and Ireland were bad enough, but now
dire economic conditions in Greece and Italy
threaten the very stability of the euro and the 17
nations that use it as their currency. Prospects
in many of the other 10 European Union (EU)
member states are not great either.
So money to invest in new power plants
and grid upgrades is hard to find, yet a great
deal of capacity needs to be added soon. The
UK, for instance, will by 2018 have lost 6
GW of aging nuclear capacity and 11 GW of
old coal and oil plants that must close under
EU anti-pollution rules because they do not
have flue gas desulfurization equipment. By
2022, Germany will have shut all 17 of the
nuclear plants that historically provided nearly one-quarter of that countrys energy.
The European Commission is sticking doggedly to its plan to fill the gap with renewables:
The target for 2020 remains 20% emissions reductions, 20% renewables, and 20% energy savings. However, many commentators believe that
the lack of firm lower-level policies has helped
to create an investment climate in which not
even gas-fired plants can be built fast enough, let
alone clean coal, new nuclear, wind, or solar. As
the European Climate Foundation environmental think tank said recently, institutional investors are not part of the climate conversation.
Steve Holliday, CEO of British grid operator National Grid, warned last year that
consumption patterns would have to change
drastically by 2020 or 2030 as the share of
renewables increases. He may have been
talking about relatively painless demand
management via a smart grid, but his comments have been widely taken to mean that
the UK will face blackouts.
Coming to Grips with European

Energy Policies
Europes proposed decarbonization is the most
massive energy program ever proposed anywhere in the world outside wartime conditions,
consultant Andrew MacKillop wrote recently in
European Energy Review. Mandatory carbon
trading has not significantly reduced emissions,
he added, and energy market liberalization has
not brought the hoped-for benefits.
Michel Cruciani of the Centre of Geopolitics
of Energy and Raw Materials at Paris-Dauphine University, agrees. He claims in a study
published in November 2011 by the Institut
Franais des Relations Internationales that liberalization has done little to lower European
energy costs. In fact, he suggested, the process
may have increased costs by creating regulatory
uncertainty.
In 2010, the UK market regulator Ofgem
said: There is an increasing consensus that
leaving the present system of market arrangements and other incentives unchanged is not an
option. The British government got the message, because in July 2011 it unveiled proposals
to reform the countrys energy market and so
make available the 200 billion ($317 billion)
the UK needs to invest in the next 10 to 15 years,
with nuclear and offshore wind as the priorities.
Key to the UK proposal are a carbon price
floor; long-term contracts for low-carbon electricity; an emissions standard of 450 g CO2/
kWh to permit gas-fired generation but disallow
coal without carbon capture and sequestration
(CCS); and a capacity mechanism, including demand response, to ensure adequate future
electricity supplies. In November, however,
several UK power executives said the proposals were unclear and that the carbon price floor
would not work.
Wanted: One Voice for Europe

The EU too has decided it needs a stronger
energy policy. Beyond its ambitious environmental targets, the EU does not control the
generating mix within each member state, but
it is often criticized for not speaking with
one voice on international energy deals
notably, bilateral deals between Russia and
individual EU members.
January 2012 POWER
www.powermag.com
In September 2011, the commission said it

wanted to monitor all energy deals between
EU governments and third countries, with a
long-term aim of negotiating energy deals on
behalf of the EU. When you see that some
60% of natural gas is imported from third
countries and as far as oil is concerned 80%
. . . its perfectly clear that the success of any
energy policy depends on a successful EU
common external energy policy, said EU
Energy Commissioner Gnther Oettinger.
The EU also seems to be following the UKs
lead in specific measures to kick-start new power plant construction. According to David Buchan of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies,
the Commissions new proposals on permitting
and financing acknowledge that market forces
by themselves will not lay the foundations of
low-carbon energy on time.
Under the new rules proposed last Octoberthough they are a long way from being accepted by EU governmentsnational
planning authorities would have to process
applications for European projects of common interest in less than three years (half
the current average time) and give increased
weight to the climate-change benefits of infrastructure such as pylons (transmission
towers) and wind turbines. The Commission
also proposes to use EU money to leverage
private-sector finance for infrastructure projects, such as through insurance via project
bonds from the European Investment Bank.
European CCS Plans Collapse

Some coal-burning nations, including the UK
and Poland, will be hit hard by the EUs 2015
closure deadline for power plants unwilling
to invest in modern SOx, NOx, and particulate
emissions controls. Germany, meanwhile,
relies heavily on coal and so might logically
choose this fuel to replace the nuclear capacity it is closing.
Yet in carbon-conscious Europe, significant
new coal capacity seems unlikely, even if it were
to include CCS. In May 2011, news agency Reuters listed 15 proposed coal projects in Germany
that are facing significant public opposition. In
Scotland, a record 20,000 people have attacked
a plan by Peel Energy to build a 1.8-GW coal
plant with biomass cofiring at Hunterston.
Short-term CCS plans in Europe are
now looking as unpromising as they are in
the U.S.notwithstanding a proposal for a
Europe-wide pipeline network, 22,000 kilometers long and costing 50 billion, to carry
1.2 billion tons/year of CO2 by 2050.
Hunterston is one of the UKs few remaining CCS prospects, because its demonstrationscale CCS systeminitially covering 20% of
the plants outputwould be funded by the
European Investment Bank. All hopes of a CCS
demonstrator funded by the UK government, on
37

the other hand, have now collapsed. The latest
failure came in October, when ScottishPower,
National Grid, and Shell UK abandoned their
plan to decarbonize one-sixth of the output of
the 2.4-GW Longannet plant in Scotland. What
was probably the worlds most commercially
advanced CCS project fell apart over arguments
about the future price of decarbonized power
and the risk of cost overruns.
Better Prospects for Gas in Europe

For gas the news is brighter, at least on paper. In the UK, for example, power projects
receiving planning consent during 2011 were
dominated in capacity terms by around 6.5
GW of gas-fired combined cycles, with another 5.5 GW currently awaiting consent.
How much of this capacity materializes is
another matter.
Shale gas continues to promise much, especially in Poland. In November, Polish gas
monopoly PGNiG said it could have up to 32
Tcf of shale gas at its 15 licenses. Chevron is
the latest company to start shale gas drilling
in Poland, joining others, including ExxonMobil, Marathon Oil, and BNK Petroleum.
France, which potentially has large shale
gas reserves, has a moratorium on hydraulic
fracturing, or fracking, that does not look
likely to be rescinded any time soon. In the
UK, public opinion was not improved by an
admission that two barely perceptible earth
tremors (magnitudes 2.3 and 1.5, respectively) near the town of Blackpool were probably
caused by fracking. The company involved,
Cuadrilla Resources, estimates that it has discovered reserves of around 200 Tcf. Even if
only a small fraction of this can be recovered,
it would exceed the 9 Tcf estimated to remain
in the UK sector of the North Sea.
Shale gas is a decade away from reducing
Europes dependence on gas imports from
Russia, which is continuing with its ambitious Nord Stream and South Stream pipeline
projects. The first of Nord Streams two pipelines was commissioned in November. Meanwhile, Wintershall and EDF have joined the
consortium for South Stream, due to come on
stream after 2015. The EUs rival Nabucco
pipeline, on the other hand, is making good
progress politically but is not well supported
by the big European energy companies.
many would phase out nuclear by 2020. Not

until 2010 did it grant a reprieve based on the
impossibility of meeting CO2 emissions targets without nuclear help.
What was a shock was the decision not to
restart the seven oldest reactors shut down immediately after Fukushima. Despite Germanys
strong investment in renewables, critics say that
this decision is likely to increase both carbon
emissions and imports of nuclear power from
neighboring France and the Czech Republic.
Utilities including E.ON and RWE accept the
decision but are demanding compensation, and
Siemens is pulling out of nuclear engineering.
Italy has abandoned plans to restart its
mothballed nuclear program, and Switzerland has said it will not replace its five nuclear plants once they reach the end of their
lives, between 2019 and 2034. Belgium has
conditionally agreed to phase out nuclear between 2015 and 2025.
France remains committed to new nuclear,
though the new Franco-German EPR units
being built at Flamanville in France and
Olkiluoto in Finland continue to suffer serious delays, construction quality problems,
and huge cost overruns. Olkiluoto 3 is now
planned to start up at the end of 2014 (originally November 2011); Flamanville is now
due to start generating in 2016.
Despite much time-wasting, the UK, too,
remains politically committed to new nuclear. In November, a proposed plant to be built
by EDF at the existing Hinkley Point nuclear
site for startup around 2020 formally began
the planning process. Other planned UK
plants to be built by RWE and E.ON may fall
victim to Germanys loss of enthusiasm for
nuclear, however.
Lithuania and Poland are also planning
new nuclear capacity.
Swedish reactors at Oskarshamn and Ringhals, both operated by Vattenfall, shut down
temporarily last year following two separate
fire incidents. In light of the serious fire at
Ringhals, the second since 2006, Swedens
nuclear safety authority threatened to withdraw the plants operating license.
European Renewables Remain

Promising, Despite Subsidy Cuts
Nuclear power is one issue on which Brussels will never be able to control national
decisions.
The big news was Germanys decision to
close all of its 17 reactors by 2022, in the
wake of the Fukushima Daiichi crisis in Japan. In one sense this was no surprise. German public opinion is strongly anti-nuclear,
and in 2000 the government ruled that Ger-
European renewable energy projects, notably

offshore wind and solar, continue to look as
promising as the tough financial conditions allow. The European Wind Energy Association
(EWEA) forecasts around 40 GW of offshore
wind capacity by 2020, including 8 GW in Germany, 4 GW in France, 4.5 GW to 6 GW in the
Netherlands, and 13 GW to 20 GW in the UK.
The most ambitious plan comes from Scotland, whose parliament says it wants 100% of
its electricity consumption to come from renewables by 2020. The plan to add up to 5 GW of
38
No Unity on Nuclear
www.powermag.com
offshore capacity by that date is not unreasonable, considering that Scotland has a quarter of
Europes total wind resource.
Finding enough engineering capacity could,
however, be a barrier to expansion. Apart from
the need to manufacture the turbines themselves,
offshore wind depends on a small number of
specialist installation vessels. And transmission grid operator TenneT says it is struggling
to cope with the demands of hooking up nine
offshore wind farms in Germany.
As always, money is a key issue. In November, the Dutch government decided that subsidizing wind power was too expensive and cut
feed-in tariffs (FITs) to 50% to 85% of their
former values. At that rate, the EWEAs optimistic outlook for the Netherlands is unlikely to
become reality. The UK government has said it
will continue to support offshore wind as long
as the costs come down: The target reduction is
from the current 190/MWh ($295/MWh) to
100/MWh by 2020.
One way to cut the cost of offshore wind is
to build bigger turbines. In the past year manufacturers including Vestas, Siemens, Enercon,
Gamesa, Alstom, and Sinovel have all announced wind turbines in the range of 5 MW
to 7.5 MW.
Another way to improve economics is to
create a production-line approach, says Anders
Eldrup, CEO of Dong Energy, the current leader
in offshore wind capacity. In an interview with
European Energy Review, Eldrup said that firm
partnerships with supplierssuch as ordering
500 Siemens wind turbines at a timeare allowing his company to escape the current project-by-project approach.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) power, meanwhile,
could realistically provide up to 12% of Europes electricity by 2020 and reach grid parity as early as 2013, according to the European
Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA). The
EU is the worlds largest PV market, with almost 30 GW of installed capacity by the end of
2010 and around 16 GW added in 2011.
By far the largest share of PV is in Germany,
showing that relatively cloudy countries with
well-managed FITs can perform better than sunnier nations with less-stable subsidy regimes,
notes Reinhold Buttgereit, EPIA secretary general. For several years Germanys FITs have declined steadily, in line with the falling costs of
solar. The UK, in contrast, is proposing drastic
FIT cutsof more than 50% for installations
below 50 kWwhich threaten to strangle the
countrys solar industry at birth.
Kennedy Maize is a POWER contributing editor and executive editor of MANAGING POWER. Charles Butcher (charles@
thiswritingbusiness.com) is a UK freelance writer specializing in the energy and
chemical industries. Dr. Robert Peltier, PE
is POWERs editor-in-chief.
POWER January 2012
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EPRI Bridges Industry R&D Gaps

The technologies used to generate and distribute electricity will be radically
transformed during the coming decade. Amid that change, the power
industry must continue to meet customer reliability, safety, and cost-ofservice expectations. Achieving the right balance among these oftenconflicting goals is the primary focus of every utility. The Electric Power
Research Institute is helping utilities achieve that balance with R&D programs for many new and emerging technologies.
By Arshad Mansoor, Electric Power Research Institute
he Electric Power Research Institute

(EPRI) is an independent research and
development (R&D) organization focused on solving the power industrys most
challenging technology, system reliability,
environmental, and safety problems. In addition, EPRI provides direction and research
support for emerging technologies of interest
to the industry. EPRI members generate more
than 90% of the electricity produced in the
U.S., and international membership extends
to 40 countries.
EPRIs goal is to develop a comprehensive
visionbroadly shared within the electricity
sector, as well as by its stakeholdersof the
innovations necessary to realize the industrys
opportunities and develop a comprehensive
plan to overcome the associated challenges.
EPRI is working closely with more than
1,400 industry and public advisors and its
Board of Directors to bring that vision to life.
It has identified six key innovation and research
paths that address both the opportunities for and
challenges to the continued delivery of reliable,
affordable, and environmentally responsible
electricity: Long-Term Operations, Near-Zero
Emissions, Renewable Resources and Integration, Water Resource Management, Energy
Efficiency (End-to-End), and the Smart Grid.
Included in the discussion below of each category are descriptions of several interesting projects
and a short project status report.
current fossil generation and T&D assets is

essential to achieving a stable transition to a
future electricity supply system.
Protect Nuclear Plants from Cyber Attack. In 2010, various media outlets reported
Long-term operations (LTO) research seeks

to maximize the substantial value of existing generation, transmission, and distribution (T&D) assets. Obtaining the maximum
operational lifetime from current assets will
provide an essential economic buffer in the
utility planning process. For example, high
capacity factors and low operating costs
make nuclear power plants some of the
most economical, reliable, and environmentally responsible power generators available.
Similarly, reliable, long-term performance of
that a computer worm called Stuxnetdesigned to hijack control systemshad infected

an Iranian nuclear fuel enrichment facility. This
potential vulnerability highlights the need for
more safeguards as nuclear plants replace old
analog electronics-based instrumentation and
control (I&C) systems with programmable digital systems. In October 2010, EPRI released a
cyber security guideline that will help nuclear
plant managers ensure that new digital systems
comply with federal regulations designed to
keep nuclear reactors safe from cyber attacks.
Cyber security is not a new concern. In the
wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks, the U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) mandated that nuclear power plants consider cyber
security threats that could expose the public to
radiation. The NRC also requires nuclear plants
to maintain grid reliability. Therefore, the EPRI
guideline also addresses systems that, if hacked,
dont directly pose a radiological risk, such as
balance-of-plant control systems.
EPRIs cyber security guideline provides
procedures for implementing cyber security
controls in 138 different areas, from passwords
and wireless connections to encryption and intrusion detection. The document also provides
four increasingly complex examples of how to
apply the procedures in an operating nuclear
plant. The examples range from a simple, firmware-based programmable relay without digital
connections to other systems to a main turbine
generator control system with digital assets both
in the control room and on the turbine floor. Although demonstrating compliance with all controls requires extensive documentation, many
controls can be addressed with existing plant
programs such as the design change process
and configuration management program. Plant
owners and operators who incorporate cyber
security into the design process early can make
40
Long-Term Operations
www.powermag.com
the final assessment of digital systems a much

simpler process.
Because a variety of cyber security recommendations already exist, instead of developing controls and procedures from scratch,
EPRI researchers built on existing guidance.
The EPRI guideline can help plant managers
prepare for that assessment and ensure a reliable transition to new digital I&C systems.
This year, the team will release a training
module outlining how to use the guidelines.
The training will provide a brief, multimedia
overview of the guidelines and procedures.
Monitor Equipment Health. EPRI has
established proof of concept on the use of transient analysis methods for detecting indicators
of performance degradation and incipient failure in electric motors and pumps before traditional online monitoring techniques can detect
such degradation. Ongoing research is creating
a generic methodology for health monitoring
during startup and other transients to enhance
prognostics, condition-based maintenance, and
failure prevention for power plant equipment.
Initial development is focused on electric motors, with field testing scheduled for 2012.
Current equipment-monitoring techniques,
including advanced pattern recognition, continuously process steady-state sensor data to
look for anomalies that may represent precursors of degradation, aging, and failure.
However, components often dont fail during steady-state operation, but during startup,
load change, and shutdown cycles, when they
are under more stress. Traditional monitoring
techniques cannot easily detect anomalies during transient operation. In 2010, EPRI initiated exploratory research to determine whether
certain failure precursors may be stronger
and more easily detectedduring transients
as opposed to during normal conditions.
EPRI assessed existing mathematical methods and algorithms that could be adapted to
transient analysis for a variety of high-value
components, such as electric motors, electric
pumps, and steam turbine generators. Then,
POWER January 2012

in proof-of-concept work at the University of
Tennessee, data collected during previous runto-failure tests of electric motors were analyzed
using transient feature extraction techniques.
The EPRI study identified key transient
data, including electrical, speed, and vibration
signals, and developed prototype prognostic
models. Notably, aging-related changes and
performance degradation not detectable in highspeed motors under steady-state conditions
were shown to be clearly evident in startup data.
As a result, pertinent insights on remaining useful life and time to failure were available sooner
than is possible using conventional methods.
Current EPRI research is creating transient
analysis methods and models for online monitoring using real-time operating data from
laboratory-scale motors and pumps. Once the
methods are developed and host plants are
identified, field testing of the transient analysis toolkit will begin in 2012 on full-scale,
in-service components. Commercial vendors
are expected to apply this novel prognostic approach to improve anomaly detection and remaining life assessment for a range of power
generation and delivery system components.
Laser Welding for Nuclear Repairs. As
nuclear reactors age, more neutrons are generated, and transmutation of elements occurs
in the reactor internals and reactor pressure
vessel. This increased neutron flux gradually increases the helium level in reactor internal components and reduces the materials
weldability via helium-induced cracking.
The extent of cracking is heavily dependent
on the heat input used for welding.
One area susceptible to such cracking is the
riser brace attachment in boiling water reactors.
1. New light shines.
Advanced laser
welding techniques are being evaluated by
EPRI for repair of cracked nuclear components. Courtesy: EPRI
January 2012 POWER
Conventional arc welding techniques typically

are not viable for repairing such components
because their high heat input (millions of watts)
would result in too much heating of the base
metal. In contrast, laser welding, which operates at energy levels of only about 800 watts,
provides the precise heat input control needed
to avoid helium-induced cracking and excessive
weld metal dilution. In addition, solid state laser
technology is particularly promising for repairing reactor internals because it can be delivered
to remote locations via optical fiber.
EPRI has been evaluating laser welding for
several years, and for a variety of applications.
Initial research focused on weld overlay of
cracked components. Utility interest ultimately
led to the first known application of laser technology in a nuclear setting: Eskoms Koeberg
plant in South Africa used laser welding in 2010
to mitigate through-wall cracking in an outdoor stainless steel storage tank. In early 2011,
EPRIs Welding and Repair Technology Center
acquired and installed a 2-kW fiber laser system.
A fiber laser is a compact, high-powered device
that delivers a laser beam through an optical fiber, providing focused energy control.
An essential element of the research program will be to demonstrate the ability of laser
welding to successfully repair irradiated material samples. Although EPRI can do much of
the research to assess the process viability of
the laser welding approach, full commercial
viability can only be obtained using irradiated materials from a test reactor. EPRI is collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy
(DOE) to evaluate a hybrid laser welding process for repairing highly irradiated materials
under EPRIs Long-Term Operations Program
and the DOEs Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. In addition, EPRI and the
DOE are constructing a hot cell at Oak Ridge
National Laboratory that will perform welding experiments on irradiated materials used to
construct reactor internals and vessels.
Assess Concrete Integrity. Concrete is a
key element in the reliable generation and delivery of electricity, and is found in everything
from cooling towers to used fuel storage facilities and transmission infrastructure. The material is generally resistant to aging, becoming
stronger over time as it cures. But high temperatures, freeze-and-thaw cycles, and exposure to
radiation and chemicals can damage even the
sturdiest concrete structures. Not every sign of
wear and tear is visible, so EPRI is working to
develop tools that can help see flaws deep inside
a structure without damaging itso-called nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods.
NDE tools exist for other materials, such as
metals. However, seeing inside concrete without
damaging it is especially difficult because the
material is a heterogeneous mix that varies with
the composition of the local aggregate used. As
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plants apply to extend their operating licenses

beyond 40 years, the need for new tools to test
the integrity of dry cask storage containers, used
fuel pools, cooling towers, containment buildings, and other structures will grow. Several
NDE techniques have already been developed,
and EPRI is working to design new ways of detecting and characterizing potential damage.
In 2011, EPRI installed fiber-optic strain
gauges on some concrete structures at Ginna
Nuclear Power Plant in upstate New York to
measure real-time strain on the steel cables
running through pre-stressed concrete. This
included the concrete containment building.
Engineers at Ginna periodically pressurize
and depressurize the containment building to
make sure its not leaking. During the most
recent such test, EPRI researchers also measured the strain induced by such tests using
digital image correlation.
In a separate project, EPRI engineers are examining how radiation can damage concrete in
the reactor cavitys walls and vessel supports,
which may lead to the development of new
NDE techniques to characterize such damage.
EPRI will be investigating how corrosive
materials such as chlorides and boric acid affect concrete. Boric acid is found in used fuel
pools at pressurized water reactors, and chloride damage can come from seawater or other
sources. Researchers at the Materials Aging Institute in Francea collaborative R&D institute
funded by EPRI, the French utility EDF, and
the Japanese utilities Tokyo Electric Power Co.
and Kansai Electric Power Co.have already
begun looking at the effects of boric acid on
concrete. At the same time, the commercial sector is searching for new NDE methods to image
voids, cracks, and other internal defects. The
most promising techniques will likely be tested
in the field in the next five years.
Near-Zero Emissions
The industry must develop technologies capable
of obtaining near zero-emissions (NZE) levels
for all current and anticipated pollutants, including CO2. Those technologies must be affordable, have minimal impact on unit operations,
and be achievable during flexible operations
(plant cycling). The R&D challenges to achieving NZE fall into three categories: energy conversion (minimizing emissions in the energy
conversion process), environmental controls
(capturing emissions during the conversion
process), and advanced generation (developing
highly efficient, low-emitting power production
technologies).
Improve Mercury Capture. Working
closely with the DOE and the power industry,
EPRI has conducted extensive mercury control
research. One leading mercury control option is
the coincidental capture of mercury by selective
catalytic reduction (SCR) and flue gas desulfu41

rization (FGD) devices, which are designed to
reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and
sulfur dioxide (SO2), respectively. The SCR converts much of the mercury to a soluble oxidized
form that is then captured by the FGD.
For plants without those emissions controls,
injection of fine-powdered activated carbon into
the plants flue gas can reduce mercury emissions. The activated carbon captures the mercury
and is then collected downstream in the particulate control device along with the plants fly ash.
EPRIs field tests and survey of activated carbon
injection installations at various plant sites aided
understanding of this techniques capabilities,
identified potential issues with its implementation and operation, and documented successful
mitigation options.
The use of commercial activated carbon can
cost a power plant millions of dollars each year
in carbon cost. EPRI and the Illinois State Geological Survey developed the sorbent activation
process, or SAP, which enables power plants to
produce activated carbon on site using the coal
they are firing. Power plants that produce the
activated carbon they need on site can eliminate
storage and inventory costs. EPRIs laboratory
and field prototype testing showed that the sorbent activation process produced activated carbon comparable to that of commercial sources.
Preliminary economic analyses based on these
tests predict that SAP can cut the cost of activated carbon by more than half.
But cost is just one of the challenges to successful implementation of activated carbon injection. Activated carbon can contaminate fly
ash, rendering it unsuitable for use in concrete.
In addition, the technology can increase emissions of particulate matter in plants with small
electrostatic precipitators. EPRI has developed
a technology called TOXECON that addresses
these issues. In the TOXECON system, the activated carbon is injected into the flue gas after it
passes through the particulate control device. An
additional baghouse downstream captures the
activated carbon and mercury as well as any fly
ash that escapes the primary particulate control.
This configuration segregates the ash collected
in the primary particulate control device from
the carbon collected in the downstream control
device. About a dozen power plants have so far
adopted this technology.
Develop New High-Temperature Materials. Advanced ultra-supercritical plants have
the potential to reduce fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and flue gas emissions
as well as saving utilities money. But the steel
alloys typically used to construct steam turbines
and boilers arent designed to withstand ultrasupercritical temperatures and pressures.
A decade ago, the DOE and the Ohio Coal
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Development Office, together with Energy Industries of Ohio, selected EPRI to be the technical leader of a consortium of U.S. steam turbine
and boiler suppliers and national laboratories.
The goal was to identify and test alloys that
would enable steam turbines and boilers for
advanced ultra-supercritical coal-fired power
plants to operate at 1,400F. Since then, this consortium has tested a number of different alloys
that can withstand these harsh conditions.
For the steam boiler portion of the project,
components of concern are the boiler headers
and piping, superheater/reheater tubes, and
waterwall panels. The first step was to identify new alloys.
The crucial limiting factor of these materials is their inherent creep strength. Creep is
the tendency of solid materials to deform when
exposed to high temperatures and pressures for
long periods. Materials in an advanced ultrasupercritical plant must have a 100,000-hour
creep-rupture strength of approximately 14,500
psi or higher. The boiler components must also
be able to withstand the corrosive conditions
produced by high-sulfur U.S. coals as well as
avoid steam-side oxidation and exfoliation. The
EPRI-led team of government and industry researchers has identified several nickel-based
alloys as promising candidates. They evaluated
aspects of the candidate materials in seven areas:
mechanical properties, steam-side oxidation,
fireside corrosion, welding, fabrication ability,
coatings, and changes to current design codes.
For steam turbines, the project focused on
the highest temperature components in four
areas: oxidation and erosion resistance of turbine blades, nonwelded rotor materials, welded
rotor materials, and castings. Materials and design philosophy for steam turbines are unique
to each manufacturer. Alloys are not subject to
code approval and thus may or may not have internationally recognized material standards.
The boiler materials development project is
scheduled to end in September 2012, and the
steam turbine materials development project will
end in 2014. As a next step, components made
from the most promising alloys will be tested
in an operating plant before a commercial-scale
600-MW demonstration plant is constructed.
Develop Laser Sensors to Monitor
Emissions. Currently, there are a limited
number of point measurements of oxygen at

the economizer outlet and measurements of
NOx across the SCR inlet and outlet. These
point measurements are not always representative of the bulk flue gas concentration
of the species being monitored and limit the
degree of uniformity that could be achieved
through process control optimization.
Improved paired measurements of carbon
monoxide (CO) and oxygen (O2) and paired
measurements of nitric oxide (NO) and ammonia (NH3) in the flue gas of coal-fired boil-
POWER January 2012

ers have the potential for several benefits. For
example, they could enable optimization of the
air/fuel distribution to individual burners, thereby enabling lower excess oxygen operation, reduced NOx emissions, and improved unit heat
rate. Combined NH3 and NOx measurements
could similarly enable optimization of NH3/
NOx distribution at the inlet of an SCR reactor,
enabling increased NOx reduction performance
while maintaining ammonia slip targets.
A recent EPRI-sponsored study designed,
lab-tested, and field-tested prototype laserbased sensors for measurement of CO and NO
at typical coal-fired boiler flue gas conditions at
the economizer outlet. This technology could
allow line-of-sight average measurements that
are more representative of the bulk flue gas concentration of the species being monitored and
improve the degree of uniformity that could be
achieved through process control optimization.
Prototype absorption sensors for CO and NO
in the combustion flue gas at the economizer
exit of a coal-fired boiler were designed using
the results of fundamental spectroscopy and
lessons learned from laboratory experiments.
First-generation prototype sensors for CO and
NO were constructed, tested in a laboratory, and
evaluated in a field measurement campaign on
a 300-MW tangential design boiler. The results
of this initial proof-of-concept field test campaign were used to design improved, secondgeneration sensors, which were evaluated in the
laboratory and then used during a second field
measurement campaign at the same facility.
An important consideration for practical
sensors includes performance over longer path
lengths, which would entail additional transmission loss and more absorption, as well as
the construction of more robust and optimized
sensors. For the CO sensor, higher-power lasers
will be essential to ensure sufficient transmission. For remote monitoring in temperaturecontrolled environments, such as monitoring
with near-infrared laser systems that use ammonia refrigeration, a more stable, low-loss fiber
delivery capability over long distances is desired
for the mid-infrared 2.3 m wavelength. For the
NO sensor, where quite high-powered lasers are
available, a more economical and robust laser
at one of the selected wavelengths is needed to
reduce the sensor cost.
Measure Low Concentrations of Mercury. It is expected that many coal-fired utilities
will be required to continuously measure mercury concentrations at <1.0 g/m3. But little, if
any, data is available as to the validity of monitors to measure at low levels.
A recent EPRI study evaluated at pilot scale
the variability of two continuous mercury monitors (CMMs) when measuring mercury at low
concentrations (<1.0 g/Nm3). The study was
funded by EPRI and the Illinois Clean Coal
Institute, the DOE, and the Energy & Environ-
January 2012 POWER
mental Research Centers Center for Air Toxic

Metals affiliates.
Tests were conducted with CMMs manufactured by Tekran and ThermoScientific, which
are the two CMMs most widely used by the utility industry. The variability of the instruments
was determined and compared to a reference
method (Environmental Protection Agency
Method 30Bsorbent traps).
The tests involved two weeks of firing natural
gas and utilizing mercury-spiking systems. Various levels of elemental mercury and mercury
(II) chloride were added to the combustor. The
tests were repeated, but this time with hydrogen
chloride and SO2 being added. For each of the
test conditions, at least one set of four sorbent
trap samples was taken simultaneously.
For the third week, an Illinois eastern bituminous coal was fired in the pilot-scale combustor.
To reduce the mercury concentration to g/Nm3,
flue gas was passed through an electrostatic precipitator, then a high-efficiency fabric filter, and
finally a wet lime-based scrubber. Again, at least
one set of quad sorbent trap samples was taken
per day.
At the completion of testing, the data was
statistically analyzed to determine the variability associated with the various parts of the
process and to determine the true lower limit of
quantification for each CMM.
Renewable Resources
and Integration
Renewable energy is fundamentally changing
the electricity industrys strategic landscape.
Some projections indicate that by 2030 renewables could account for more than 20% of
the electricity generated and delivered globally. To affordably and reliably generate and
integrate renewable resources, the electricity
industry will need innovative solutions to address critical challenges, including these:
Enable renewable generation technology
optionswind, water, solar photovoltaic,
solar thermal, biomass, and geothermal
energythat are cost-competitive over the
long term with other low-carbon forms of
power generation.
Maintain electric grid reliability with
high penetrations of variable wind and
solar energy.
Understand and minimize environmental
impacts of renewable energy resources on
a large scale.

Develop Single-Well Geothermal Systems. The vast majority of existing geothermal
power plants draw energy from reservoirs of

steam or high-temperature liquid water in permeable rock. Production wells bring the fluids
to the surface, where their heat is converted to
electricity through a steam turbine generator.
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These systems typically are risky and expensive

because they require exploration and characterization of the geothermal resource to determine
its viability. This often necessitates the drilling
of deep wells.
In 2009, EPRI began exploring a novel,
closed-loop approach for mining heat from dry
rock formations while avoiding the drilling of
injection and production wells. A single-well
engineered geothermal system technology
could accelerate energy capture from regions
where there is heat but no liquid.
One such system was evaluated by EPRI.
The concept relies on using existing wells, such
as abandoned oil or gas recovery wells, or commercially failed (crippled) geothermal wells. To
create energy, power producers would pump
their own liquid into the well through a closedloop process, bring that heated liquid back to the
surface, and transform the heat into electricity
using either commercial binary-cycle or reverse
air conditioning technology. The single-well
system employs a down-hole heat exchanger
with a specialized heat transfer fluid to maximize heat exchange.
Using some of the vast inventory of abandoned or underused wells to capture underground heat could eliminate some of the risk
associated with geothermal energy. Power companies can measure temperatures at the well
bottom without having to invest several million
dollars to drill the well first. Adapting singlewell systems could also expand the geothermal
resource. Existing geothermal power plants
must be located above moderate- to high-temperature geothermal resources where there are
reservoirs of steam or liquid water in permeable
rock. These conditions exist in a few relatively
small geographic areas of the world. Recoverable geothermal resources that rely on hot dry
rock, on the other hand, are estimated to exceed
500,000 MW of generating capacity and offer
deployment potential of 100,000 MW by 2050.
In a recently published report, EPRI researchers examined the amount of energy that could be
extracted using single-well geothermal systems
and how much such systems would cost. They
modeled down-hole components and analyzed
the potential of drilling, conduction, heat transfer
fluid, and fluid enhancements for maximizing
heat extraction. Their work suggests that a single-well system will be optimal if it is installed
in a fractured or porous medium in a highly saturated condition. Single-well geothermal technology could be ready for commercial application
in new, depleted, or abandoned oil and gas fields
in just a few years. Individual wells could have a
potential yield of 0.5 MW to 1 MW.
Detect Wind Turbine Blade Flaws. Wind
turbine blades are expected to last millions of
operating cycles. However, flaws in turbine
bladeseither production defects or defects that
arise during operationcan cause cracks or oth43

er damage, leading to expensive repairs. In severe cases, flaws can lead to catastrophic failure
of the blade and damage to the wind turbine.
The primary method for examining wind turbine components is visual inspection. However,
this method cannot detect flaws that lie beneath
the blades surface. To address this challenge,
EPRI is working to develop NDE techniques
for wind turbine components, including blades.
One method capable of examining large surfaces is laser shearography, a technique used in the
aerospace industry. In 2010, EPRI researchers
demonstrated in the laboratory the feasibility of
using laser shearography to assess the health of
wind turbine blades.
Defects in wind turbine blades that lie beneath the surface produce slight inconsistencies
in the continuity of the blades surface. These
changes are not visible to the naked eye. Laser
shearography relies on a shearography camera with a built-in laser. The laser illuminates
the blades surface, and the light reflected off
the blade travels into the camera, which relies
on interference patterns to detect flaws. The
technology produces a three-dimensional image
of the defect.
EPRI researchers recently tested laser
shearography on a wind turbine at the National
Renewable Energy Laboratorys (NRELs) test
facility in Golden, Colo. Using this technology, the team detected a large delamination on
the high-pressure side of a blade that had not
been previously detected. After 25,000 cycles,
a crack appeared along the edge of the delamination. During subsequent fatigue cycles, this
crack grew until the test was stopped at 2.4
million cycles.
Laser shearography has advantages over other
NDE techniques. First, it is one of the few techniques that can be employed once a blade has
been installed. Second, EPRI research indicates
that the device may work even when mounted
on the ground, eliminating the need for a crane
or inspector. Third, the laser can scan a relatively
large areaon the order of 43 square feetenabling operators to conduct inspections quickly.
As part of this three-year project, EPRI researchers plan to test laser shearography in the
field. Improved shearography techniques will
result in more thorough structural assessments
of blades by making it easier to detect flaws. In

addition, EPRI plans to collaborate with Sandia
National Laboratories Blade Reliability Collaborative in the development of flaw and degradation analysis models. These models will help
wind turbine owners and operators determine
whether blades with defects must be repaired or
replaced. Some flaws may not pose a threat to
the structural integrity of the blade (Figure 2).
Detect Bats Near Wind Turbines. The
spinning blades of wind turbines can cause
significant bat kills, especially when migratory
species are on the move. A recent paper projected that turbines in the Mid-Atlantic region could
be killing 33,000 to 111,000 bats each year by
2020. Concerns about bat mortality have put
some wind power projects on hold, while the
economic viability of others is threatened by
mitigation strategies such as seasonal curtailment of operations.
EPRI is developing an automated bat protection system that will use an array of ultrasonic
microphones mounted on the turbine to detect
the calls bats use to navigate and find prey.
When the bat protector detects bats, it will automatically slow or stop the turbine blades.
The projects first objectives were to select
the best commercially available ultrasonic microphones and identify the optimum number
and configuration of microphones around the
turbine. EPRI used recorded calls from big
brown bats and small-footed batsspecies
found throughout North Americato evaluate existing echolocation detection hardware
and software under turbines at the Cedar Creek
Wind Resource Area, a 200-MW wind farm
in Colorado. EPRI researchers used groundmounted transmitters and receivers to test the
systems capabilities at various distances and in
different configurations. The receivers could detect the calls 90% of the time when the transmitter was less than 15 feet away. The angle of the
transmitter also influenced the receivers ability
to detect calls.
As a next step, EPRI researchers will test the
microphones by mounting them on a functioning GE wind turbine at NREL. Mounting the
system on the turbine will test the ability of
the hardware and software components to distinguish bat calls from rotor noise. Bats arent
common near Golden, so the team will use a

remote-controlled device to broadcast the calls
of silver-haired bats, hoary bats, and eastern red
batsthose species most at riskto test the microphones capabilities.
If all goes well, the team will collaborate
with a host utility to conduct further field testing. Assuming that the tests prove successful,
EPRI plans to collaborate with a turbine manufacturer to incorporate bat detection as a control
system input (Figure 3).
Combine Energy Storage and Wind
Generation. As a result of the rapid expansion
of wind generation, and transmission constraints

in certain regions, utilities are experiencing
substantial curtailment of wind power. Due to
transmission issues and other reasons, one study
found that the mean realized capacity factor for
Europe over the past five years was below 21%,
while preconstruction expectations were in the
30% to 35% range.
The ability to store wind energy could help
utilities maximize wind farm capacity factors
and reduce or eliminate curtailment, provide
dispatchable capability for wind generation,
increase the operational flexibility of isolated
grids, facilitate higher wind penetration, and
reduce generation portfolio fuel burn.
A recent EPRI study explored the potential
benefits of directly integrated energy storage
(ES) and wind generation. The study compared the potential use of several different ES
technologies and calculated the general profitability of the preferred option for a particular location. This study provides quantitative
analysis of the potential for the integration of
onsite ES and wind generation. The ability to
store wind energy could provide higher wind
farm capacity factors.
3. Bat detective. New technology will be
able to distinguish bat calls from rotor noise

in order to slow or stop blades when bats are
present. Courtesy: EPRI
2. Detecting blade faults. Using laser technology, structural faults in wind turbine blades
can be detected before failure occurs. Courtesy: EPRI
44
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POWER January 2012
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In the first phase of the two-phase project,
the project team identified the most promising
ES options available at this time. Technologies
investigated included many battery systems
(for example, sodium sulfur batteries), pumped
hydro, compressed air energy storage (CAES),
and hydrogen or ammonia production for end
use. CAES technologies were found to be the
preferred options.
In the second phase, the team conducted a
high-level engineering and economic analysis
to investigate the profitability of the preferred
ES option for a particular application and location. The location was a specific existing wind
farm in the Midwest, and the one-year study
period was May 1, 2010 to April 30, 2011. The
analysis included capital costs, operating costs,
and determination of CAES plant dispatch and
revenues from participation in the energy and
ancillary market of the Midwest Independent
Transmission System Operator.
Further potential value, not attributed to the
CAES plant in this current financial analysis,
includes potential investment tax credits for the
CAES plant capital costs, benefits to the wind
farm owner such as increased production tax
credits, higher nodal locational marginal prices
during congestion or high-wind periods, trans-
mission asset benefits and enhanced Independent System Operator (ISO) system flexibility
(such as operation as a controllable load), reduced cycling of fossil plants in the ISO that
have poor heat rates and higher maintenance
costs, and facilitation of increased renewable
energy penetration.
Water Resource Management

Water presents three strategic challenges and
opportunities for the electric sector:

Using less water for power production

conserves a scarce resource for other necessary uses.
Minimizing the environmental impacts on
water uses for power production preserves
environmental resources and protects human health.
Using efficient electric technologies for
water treatment, transport, desalinization,
and industrial processes both reduces water demand and conserves electricity.
EPRI has research projects under way in

all three categories.
Develop New Utility Water Policies. Because power plants rely on large quantities of
4. Prism vision. Power companies can use EPRIs Water Prism in house to help develop
their own water use strategy or to site new plants. Alternatively, they can use the analysis and
resulting strategies to lead broad efforts with other stakeholders to develop a unified water use
plan for an entire region. Source: EPRI
water for cooling and other normal operations,

they often face pressure to reduce freshwater
use. EPRI researchers are developing a prototype decision support system called Water Prism
that can be used to analyze current and projected
water demand and supply in a geographical area
such as a watershed. This software will help
power generators compare different water management strategies and determine whether these
strategies will lead to sustainable water use.
Water Prism compares total water demand
from all sectorsincluding electric power, agricultural, municipal, industrial, and the ecosystemto total available freshwater supply. The
program takes into account not only current
demand and supply but also projections for the
next 50 years. Power companies and other sectors can then explore the impact of different water-saving strategies, such as using effluent from
a wastewater treatment plant or agricultural
runoff, on total freshwater demand. By comparing those reductions with total supply, they can
determine whether a given management strategy will lead to sustainable water use. The data
required for Water Prism include climate, land
use, current water withdrawal and discharge records, and projected water demands.
Other models exist to assess various water management strategies, but Water Prisms
graphics, which are similar to the graphics used
in EPRIs Prism analysis for greenhouse gas
emissions, make it easy for stakeholders and the
general public to grasp the results. The software
represents water use in each sector as colored
bands, which combine to form a prism equal to
the total water use by all sectors, allowing analyses of different water management strategies.
EPRI researchers plan to complete a working prototype of Water Prism by the end of 2011
and are testing and refining software using data
from the Muskingum River watershed in Ohio,
an 8,000-square-mile area with five electric
power plants (Figure 4).
Reduce Cooling Tower Evaporative
Loss. In the U.S., thermoelectric power with-
drawals account for approximately 40% of

freshwater withdrawals and approximately 3%
of consumption. In specific regions and during drought years, this rate of water withdrawal
may not be available. Looking ahead, increasing growth pressures and tightening regulations
are anticipated to further drive industry needs
to reduce water use and consumption. Innovative water reduction technologies are therefore
needed to enhance long-term operational performance and new plant citing options, particularly in water-constrained regions.
For typical Rankine-cycle steam plants with
closed-cycle wet cooling, the majority of freshwater use (~90%) is for cooling. Reducing water
requirements for thermal power plant cooling
represents the best opportunity for in-plant water conservation. As existing water-saving cool46
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012

ing technologies have high capital costs, energy
penalties, and operations and maintenance impacts, the development of new, cost-effective
cooling technologies has been the focus of
EPRIs Water Use and Availability Technology
Innovation Program.
Based upon responses to an initial request for
information in 2011, EPRI is launching research
on several technologies that have the potential
for significant water efficiency gains at both fossil and nuclear units, including the development
of heat absorption nanoparticles for reducing
cooling tower evaporative loss.
This novel cooling technology consists of a
nanoparticle with an outer ceramic/metal shell
and an internal phase-change material core
which, when added to a coolant fluid, significantly increases both its rate of heat transfer
as well as its heat capacity. This nanofluid
with enhanced thermal properties would result
in reduced flow rates, reduced evaporation and
drift water loss, and overall power plant water
consumption reductions of up to 20%. The technology has the added appeal of being broadly
applicable to new and existing cooing systems
and, in concept, it could be relatively cost-effective to retrofit to existing cooling towers.
This unique heat absorption nanoparticle
concept and the underlying technology were developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL).
EPRI is launching a project with ANL to further
develop and demonstrate a working nanofluid
using these particles that can be utilized specifically for power plant cooling needs. Computer
models will optimize the thermal properties of
nanoparticles needed for such applications, and
then laboratory synthesis and pilot testing will
further optimize the candidate nanoparticles.
The process also will be developed to mitigate any potential for environmental losses
of the nanoparticles, as well as any negative
material degradation consequences of the
nanofluid itself.
Finally, prototype testing of an optimized
nanofluid will be performed with a scaled-down
cooling tower and condenser system, and an
economic feasibility study for a 500-MW power
plant will be conducted.
If these breakthrough project goals are met,
larger-scale demonstrations of the heat absorption nanoparticles technology could be conducted through specific utility applicationfocused
programs at EPRI, such as the Advanced Cooling Technology or Advanced Nuclear Technology programs. EPRI plans to develop a suite
of such water-conserving power plant cooling
advancements throughout the next several years
in order to expand regional- and utility-specific
options for long-term operations and new plant
construction.
Form the Water Research Center. Water
management restrictions for all types of electric generating units continue to increase due to
January 2012 POWER
rising water costs, stakeholder pressure, and/or

new regulations. Regulatory changes may include the following:

Water withdrawal taxes to force conservation and reuse.

Mandated limitations on water withdrawals, including prohibition against oncethrough cooling.
Permit changes and/or revisions to the
Steam Electric Effluent Guidelines.
Zero liquid discharge (ZLD) mandates.
EPRI has formed a research collaborative with Georgia Power Corp. and Southern
Company Services to support the transition
to a future that limits traditional water intake
volumes by developing a Water Research
Center (WRC) that is holistically focused on
these issues. The WRC is located at Plant Bowen in Cartersville, Ga. Research will focus
on meeting future water and wastewater restrictions and enabling sustainable water use
practices in utility operations.
The WRC also will serve as a facility to conduct research performance evaluations of new
technologies and technical approaches to ensure
that they are properly vetted. This project is the
first step in reaching these goals, by planning
and developing the WRC as an industrywide
resource at which potential end users, vendors,
and resource agencies can test new technologies
cost-effectively, using specialists in the area and
standardized/uniform protocols.
The WRC will provide an infrastructure and
specialist staff for testing tools and technologies
aimed at reducing water consumption and developing/demonstrating cost-effective treatment
technologies for potential wastewater contaminants. Projects could include:
continued development and adoption of energy

efficient technologies and best practices is essential to realizing these goals. Utility energy
efficiency activities have focused on incentives
to end-use customers to adopt relatively mature
technologies, most notably compact-fluorescent
lamps. However, realizing the resource potential
of energy efficiency requires the development
and availability of a wider variety of efficient
end-use technologies in homes, buildings, and
industrial facilities.
Realizing the full potential of energy efficiency also requires a more holistic view upstream of the end-use realm, including power
generation and delivery. Improvements in the
efficiency of auxiliary loads in power plants
and in techniques to reduce T&D energy
losses can yield significant energy savings
within acceptable costs, but also require validation through extensive assessment, testing,
and demonstration.
EPRI is conducting a multi-year energy
efficiency demonstration project focused
on six hyper-efficient electricity utilization technologies. These technologies may
have the potential to reduce electric energy
consumption in residential and commercial
applications by up to 40% for each application. If fully deployed, these technologies
could reduce the demand for electric energy
between 10% and 20%. The six hyper-efficient technologies being demonstrated are:

Wastewater treatment (FGD discharge and

low-volume wastewaters)
Zero liquid discharge
Advanced cooling
Moisture recapture and other techniques
to reduce water needs
Degraded water use
Disposal management for water treatment/
ZLD solids
Water balance and monitoring tools
A project kickoff meeting was held in November 2011. Some projects already are under
way, and construction of the new WRC facilities
is expected to be completed in late 2012.
Energy Efficiency (End-to-End)

Energy efficiency is widely acknowledged as
a resource to help maintain reliable and affordable electric service, reduce emissions, and save
resources. Efficiency goals are mandated in 24
states and are under consideration in others. The
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Variable refrigerant flow air conditioning

(with and without ice storage)
Heat pump water heating
Ductless residential heat pumps and air
conditioners
Hyper-efficient residential appliances
Data center energy efficiency
Light-emitting diode street and area lighting
Improve Efficiency in Generation and

Delivery. Energy efficiency can help meet
the challenges of maintaining reliable and

affordable electric service, managing energy
resources, and reducing carbon emissions.
While many utilities are encouraged by their
regulators to engage in end-use energy efficiency programs, few consider options to reduce energy losses along the electricity value
chain. In many cases, the efficiency gains that
could be realized through measures to reduce
T&D losses or reduce electricity consumption at power plants can be significant.
Recent EPRI analyses indicate that approximately 11% of electricity produced is consumed
in the production and delivery of electricity itself
by energizing auxiliary devices such as pumps,
material handlers, and environmental controls,
and through T&D losses. Based on 2010 estimates of electricity generation, this represents
450.7 billion kilowatt-hours of U.S. electricity
47

generated, making the electric sector the second-largest electric-consuming industry.
The application of new technologies may
have the potential to reduce electricity use in
electric utilities by 10% to 15%. Even a 10%
reduction is enough electricity to power 3.9 million homes. EPRI has identified technology options and changes in operating methods that can
improve overall efficiency.
In power production, duty-cycle or capacity
factor is the key driver that influences internal
power use relative to unit output. In coal-fired
power plants, the average internal power use
across the sample used in EPRIs analysis was
7.6%. In nuclear power plants, the average was
4.1%. Opportunities to reduce electricity use
in power production may include advances in
control systems for auxiliary power devices and
the use of adjustable-speed drive (ASD) mechanisms. In addition, ASD installations often reduce CO2 emissions.
Electricity losses in power delivery total approximately 6.3%. In the distribution system,
the use of efficient transformers, improved voltage control, phase balancing, and balancing of
reactive power needs could substantially reduce
electricity use. In the transmission system, opportunities include extra-high-voltage overlays,
and transformer and line efficiency. In addition,
there are a couple of other discoveries worth
highlighting:

Newer power plants are not necessarily

more efficient than older plants, due principally to environmental requirements.
Non-baseload operating plants have a particularly high potential for improvement
by the application of ASDs on motors.
Other EPRI research shows that shifting loads from peak to off-peak hours provides significant improvement by reducing
load flows on the T&D system during peak
periods when losses are exacerbated, while
also reducing cycling operation for selected
generation units. Use of alternative energy
sources close to load centers to supply energy requirements during peak periods also
can significantly reduce T&D losses during
the most challenging periods of operation.
Given the intensity of energy consumption in
the industrys own physical infrastructure, efficiency measures undertaken at a finite number
of power plants or in the power delivery grid
can potentially yield energy savings and carbon
emission reductions more cost-effectively than
traditional end-use programs targeted at buildings, residential users, and other industries.
AC to DC and back again. The power losses

due to the use of inefficient power conversion
devices from both outside and within equipment
result in a large loss of useful electrical power.
They also directly increase the energy required
to remove the heat produced. Though estimates
and actual measurements vary, the power utilization by information technology (IT) loads
can sometimes be 50% or less of the total input
power consumption.
Duke Energy and EPRI are working together
in a demonstration project that focuses on DC
conversion at the data center (or facility) level.
The approach will convert the facilitys 480V
AC into 380V DC and deliver it to the equipment racks via a 380V DC bus. The very best
AC equipment can be deployed to improve
power distribution efficiency, but that approach
only squeezes some of the losses out of each
component. The DC approach eliminates those
losses completely, through the removal of the
less-efficient AC components.
DC power distribution is an alternative approach to a conventional data center AC power
scheme. Most data center server racks are not
currently powered using DC, but the servers
and storage arrays can operate with either AC
or DC. Typical servers and storage arrays inherently convert an AC power source to DC within
each power supply, which adds an additional
power conversion loss. Using the DC powering approach, extra power conversion steps are
eliminated, lowering losses, increasing reliability, reducing cooling needs and square footage
requirements for data centers, and simplifying
power supplies.
Testing of a DC power system at a Duke Energy data center in Charlotte, N.C., has revealed
preliminary results that the system uses 15%
less energy than a typical double-conversion
UPS AC power system.
Smart Grid
Typical data center power delivery designs use

alternating current (AC) power, typically distributed within the facility at 480V AC. This
power goes through several conversions from
The smart grid concept combines information and communications technologies with
the electricity grid to increase performance
and provide new capabilities.
Increasing use of variable generation and
controllable loads, combined with an aging
infrastructure, is a scenario where conveying
actionable information to and from interactive markets, or monitoring asset health, will
require greater use of information and communication technologies. Each utility will
create its own smart grid through investments
made in back office systems, communications
networks, and intelligent electric devices.
Smart grid functional requirements, interoperability, and cyber security standards
are still evolving, and premature technology
obsolescence could strand some investments
as transitional technologies need to be replaced before their expected end of life.
48
Improve Data Center Energy Efficiency.
www.powermag.com
This strategic issue requires a holistic vision

with end-to-end system considerations including transmission, distribution, and end use.
Launch Protect the Grid Initiative. The
increasing interconnectedness, automation, and
communication capabilities of the power grid
pose several significant cyber security, resiliency, and privacy challenges. Security threats
to the grid could come from deliberate attacks
by terrorists and hackers as well as inadvertent
user errors and equipment failures. Additionally,
the dramatic increase in the granularity of data
about end-user behavior raises several new privacy concerns. To achieve a secure and resilient
grid, advances must be made in assessing and
monitoring risk, architectures to support end-toend security, legacy systems security, approaches for managing incidents, and technology to
support privacy.
EPRI has launched the Security and Privacy
Initiative, a collaborative effort to investigate cyber security standards, business processes, and
technologies that can address these issues. This
project, which will expand to become the Cyber
Security and Privacy Program in 2012, also will
develop technologies, best practices, and controls on data privacy.
EPRI also has partnered with the DOE to
conduct cyber security research and analysis to
support the National Electric Sector Cyber Security Organization. As part of this three-year
public/private partnership, EPRI will determine
how to mitigate risks from impending threats,
harmonize cyber security requirements, and assess cyber security standards and technologies.
Assessing and monitoring the cyber security posture for energy delivery systems is
vital to understanding and managing cyber security risk. As part of its R&D, EPRI is working with advanced metering infrastructure
5. Low exposure. An EPRI researcher

takes data on radio-frequency exposure from
smart meters. These meters are typically part
of a wireless mesh network consisting of approximately 500 to 750 home meters connected through a cell relay meter to local utility
via a cellular wireless wide area network. The
cell relay meter operates at a nominal power
level of 1 watt. Courtesy: EPRI
POWER January 2012

(AMI) vendors and utilities to identify a set of
alerts and alarms that can be standardized to
enhance AMI security event monitoring. The
EPRI program in 2012 will continue this effort
and also focus on network security management architectures for T&D systems. These
activities will support the long-term objective
of enhanced situational awareness across the
domains of the power delivery system.
Increasing the security of next-generation
energy delivery systems will require a combination of new security architectures, tools, and
procedures that provide end-to-end security and
support defense-in-depth features. The EPRI
program will address this need by developing
protective measures, such as key management,
high-assurance architectures, and security testing tools to validate the level of protection. The
program also will focus on reducing the security risk of legacy systems through the development of risk mitigation strategies, transition
strategies, and the assessment of substation security solutions.
Although efforts to prevent and detect cyber incidents are important for the protection
of control systems, they do not prepare for the
eventuality of a cyber incident. Energy delivery
systems also must be resilient to cyber incidents
and continue to perform critical functions while
under duress and during the recovery process.

EPRIs R&D is addressing part of this issue
by developing guidelines and best practices for
responding to cyber incidents on AMI systems.
In the future, the EPRI program will support
resiliency for the grid by focusing on decision
support tools for responding to cyber incidents,
as well as tools and techniques to support cyber
security forensics.
Make the Smart Grid Interoperable.
Interoperability is the ability of two devices or

systems to exchange information and use that
information to perform their functions. The vision of the smart grid is that millions of devices
in different domains and with different owners will be able to exchange information. This
exchange of information needs to happen with
minimal integration cost and difficulty.
The lack of mature, uniform standards to enable interoperability among systems has been
cited by utilities and regulators as a reason for
not moving forward with smart grid applications such as AMI. Investments in proprietary
systems risk long-term vendor lock-in and costly fork-lift upgrades to fully take advantage of
new smart grid applications.
The key to interoperability is standards. The
use of standards to integrate complex systems
and components dramatically reduces both
implementation and operational costs. But for

devices and systems to communicate easily,
they must speak the same language. Standards
abound in the utility space, but they have different, sometimes overlapping domains. Some
standards are mature and others are emerging.
Both technical and implementation gaps need
to be addressed simultaneously. Existing technical standards for smart grid applications are incomplete and have not been broadly adopted by
utilities, vendors, and third-party device manufacturers. Some existing standards need to be
harmonized, and reference architectures and interface standards that will enable interoperability between equipment from different vendors
will need to be developed. In addition, many of
the existing standards do not address cyber security or device management uniformly.
Achieving interoperability is a huge undertaking that involves the active involvement of all
stakeholders, including the federal government,
standards development organizations, and user
groups. All of these activities need to be coordinated and harmonized to enable data and
information to be shared with the people and
individuals who need it.
Arshad Mansoor is senior vice

president, research & development for the
Electric Power Research Institute.
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49
POWER IN CHINA
Chinas 12th Five-Year Plan Pushes

Power Industry in New Directions
The Five-Year Plan is the expression of the centralized planning goals for
Chinas economy. The 12th Five-Year Plan, approved by the Chinese
Government on March 14, 2011, established many social and economic
goals, including significant expansion of the countrys power generation industry in many new directions.
By Zeng Ming, Xue Song, Zhu Xiaoli, and Ma Mingjuan, North China Electric Power University
he Five-Year Plan is Chinas most important government policy document. It

describes a series of economic development initiatives, maps strategies for economic
development, sets growth targets, and launches reforms. During the just-completed 11th
Five-Year Plan period, rapid power industry
growth met the needs of economic and social
development, but the growth of the power industry was disorganized. As part of the 12th
Five-Year Plan, the structure of power generation development will be optimized, including
the proper balance of coal transportation and
power transmission. In addition, the controversy over the direction of grid transmission
and distribution must be reconciled. The Plan
also puts forward specific requirements for energy conservation measures.
Chinas major power companies have already begun formulating their development
strategies to meet five specific requirements
set out by the Plan: develop clean energy, optimize the production of coal-fired electricity,
rationally allocate peaking power, develop
distributed energy, and construct a strong and
smart grid. The purpose of this article is to discuss those requirements and the development
strategies for Chinas power industry.
tant role in the development of new and renewable energy and contribute considerably
to energy saving and emissions reductions in
the next 10 years (Figure 1).
The contribution of nuclear power, although now about 10.8 GW, will increase
greatly, as a percentage, in the future. Due

to intermittency and instability issues, the
installed capacity of wind power will be lower than hydro power and nuclear power by
2020. At the same time, the installed capacity
of solar photovoltaics will not increase con-
Table 1. Installed electricity capacity in China, 2010 and projected to

2020. Source: China Electricity Council, National Grid Energy Research Institute
2010
Technology
GW
2020
Percentage
GW
Percentage
Coal
646.60
66.77%
1,030.00
57.68%
Gas
26.42
2.73%
58.90
3.30%
Nuclear
10.82
1.12%
80.83
4.53%
198.21
20.47%
340.00
19.04%
Pumped storage
17.84
1.84%
50.00
2.80%
Wind
29.57
3.05%
150.00
8.40%
Solar
0.26
0.03%
24.00
1.34%
0.84%
Hydro
Biomass
1.70
0.18%
15.00
Other
36.92
3.81%
36.92
2.07%
Total
968.34
100.00%
1,785.65
100.00%
1. A great wall of China. The 22.5-GW Three Gorges Dam, which is under construction
along the great Yangtze River in Chinas Hubei Province, is the worlds largest power project,
costing an estimated 180 billion ($28.4 billion) to build. Courtesy: Wikipedia
Goal 1: Develop Clean Energy

The 12th Five-Year Plan will change the power
generation structure in which new and renewable energy resources figure prominently. According to the Plan, nonfossil fuel generation
should account for 11.4% of total primary energy consumption by 2015, and renewable energy
resources should be 20% by 2020. In order to
reach emission reduction targets, the proportion
of new and renewable energy in Chinas overall energy mix will continually increase. Clean
energy sources include hydro, biomass, wind,
solar, and nuclear power.
In 2010, the total installed electricity production capacity in China was 968.34 GW
(Table 1). To meet the Plans clean energy
goals, hydro power will play the most impor50
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
POWER IN CHINA
siderably before 2020 because of technology
and economic concerns.
National Grid Energy Research Institute
(NGERI) has completed a study of several
scenarios of the coordinated development of

clean energy and power systems during the
12th Five-Year Plan, particularly with regard
to energy security and economy. The results
2. Coal resources in China, by province (2001). Source: Wikimedia Commons
of the study showed that Chinas total installed

capacity is expected to soar to 1,786 GW by
2020. The installed capacity of renewable energy will reach about 600 GW by 2020 (Table
1), according to the National Development and
Reform Commission. Renewable energy will
increase in overall percentage from 26.54% in
2010 to 34% in 2020.
It should be noted that the construction
period for nuclear power and hydro power is
very long. Thus, it is very critical for China to
construct and place into operation a number
of clean energy generation projects during
the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
Goal 2: Optimize Production of

Coal-Fired Electricity
0 1,000 Mt
1,000 10,000 Mt
10,000 50,000 Mt
50,000 100,000 Mt
100,000 250,000 Mt
3. Balancing supply and demand. The gap between installed capacity and electricity
consumption in east China is increasing over time. Source: China Electricity Council
Installation capacity
60
Electricity consumption
Percentage
55
50
45
40
35
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
4. Coal by wire. The Guangxi Fangchenggang Power Station is the largest power project in
Guangxi Province in southern China. The plant is located in the Beibu Wan Economic Zone and
supplies power to the developing region and to the West to East electricity transmission system
via the China Southern Grid. Courtesy: CLP Holdings Ltd.
January 2012 POWER
www.powermag.com
The installed capacity of thermal power in

China is 710 GW, 54% of which is in the electric load center of east China, and only 19% in
the coal-rich regions in central and west China
(Figure 2). The Plan requires accelerating the
optimization of coal-fired power as essential for
sustainable development of the power industry,
or local balance. The largest challenge is that
Chinas coal-fired electricity distribution system
lacks inter-provincial transmission capability. In
addition, coal must be shipped by train from
coal-rich regions to plants in the eastern areas,
where air and acid rain pollution are severe. As
expected, coal transport delays and downtime
are frequent, threatening the security and stability of power systems as well as sustainable
economic development.
Electricity demand will grow rapidly in
China for a long time into the future. From
the perspective of power demand distribution,
consumption growth in the regions of Jin,
Shan, Meng, and Ning in western China will
be larger than in the eastern regions. From the
perspective of the absolute level of electricity
consumption, the proportion of consumption
in supply-side regions may increase gradually,
but regional distribution patterns will not fundamentally change. The absolute consumption
gap between supply-side regions and demandside regions will continue to increase (Figure
3). Therefore, accelerating the construction of
coal-based generation is imperative in order
to rationalize the location of coal-fired power
and achieve greater overall economic and social benefits (Figure 4).
The technical feasibility of ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission has been verified
with the successful operation of several UHV
AC and DC demonstration projects. UHV can
improve the economic effectiveness of transmission greatly. It can economically connect
the energy base in the northwestern areas
to the primary energy consumption areas in
the east: The floor price of UHV transmission is 0.03 to 0.10 yuan/kWh (0.40 to 1.57
cents/kWh), lower than the cost of transport51
POWER IN CHINA
52
1. State Council, 2011. The Twelfth FiveYear Plan for National Economic and
Social Development. (Chinese: http://
tinyurl.com/72hroob)
2. National Development and Reform Commission, 2010. Long-Term Development
Plan for Renewable Energy. Beijing.
(Chinese: http://tinyurl.com/cgpt8e8)
3. National Grid Energy Research Institute,
2011. Studies on the Development of
Clean Energy by State Grid Corporation.
Beijing. (http://tinyurl.com/86bz5hv)
4. China Electricity Council, 2011. Report
on the Development of Chinas Power In-
dustry. Beijing. (http://tj.cec.org.cn/)

See also CEC report on Chinas electricity supply and demand analysis and economic forecasts (20102011). (http://
tinyurl.com/7gqzfr3)
5. Fanxian Yun, Jining Chen, Fu Sun, Siyu
Zeng, and Can Wang. Trend of Technology Innovation in Chinas Coal-fired
Electricity Industry Under Resource and
Environmental Constraints. Elsevier:
Energy Policy (39) 2011. (http://tinyurl.
com/7ywramt)
6. State Grid Corp., 2011. The Twelfth FiveYear Plan for Center Power Enterprises.
(http://tinyurl.com/7kuv9la)
7. National Bureau of Statistics of China,
2011. Series Report of the Economic
and Social Achievements: New Development, New Leap Forward, New Episode.
(http://tinyurl.com/7wr2qq8)
5. The production and use of natural gas in China, 19912007. Source: China
Statistical Yearbook, 19912007
600
Production
Available reserve
Reserve-production ratio
30,000
500
25,000
400
20,000
300
15,000
200
10,000
100
5,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Available reserve (100 million m3)
Coal-fired power is the foundation of Chinas

power generation structure. Northern plants
account for a large portion of coal installation
capacity and run-of-water hydropower plants,
which makes regulating peak load difficult.
With rapid development of wind power, especially given its intermittent nature, power
systems must have peaking power. Due to
peak-shaving difficulties, the output limits
of wind power are very serious in low-load
periods. Therefore, China needs to construct
gas-fired power and pumped storage power
stations to meet system peaking demand.
Gas-Fired Power. Compared with coal
power, gas-fired power has advantages in reducing carbon emissions. Natural gas generators, good at peak shaving, can start fast and
adjust flexibly. However, domestic natural
gas resources are limited, and supply capacity is inadequate. The trends of Chinas natural gas production and reserve-production
ratio are shown in Figure 5.
We can see from Figure 5 that the reserve-production ratio of natural gas shows a downward
trend, which means that Chinas dependency on
gas imports will increase even more. The 2009
China Energy Development Blue Book, released
by the Academy of Social Sciences, estimates
Chinas natural gas consumption in 2010 was
120 billion cubic meters and will rise to 200
billion cubic meters in 2015 (Figure 6). Chinas
2010 natural gas supply and demand gap was
20 to 30 billion cubic meters, with imports accounting for 20% of that amount.
The following sources provided data for this

article. Some URLs have been shortened
for easier presentation without breaking in
print. Unless otherwise indicated, the web
pages are available in English.
Production (100 million m3) and

reserve production ratio
Goal 3: Rationally Allocate

Peaking Power
For More Details
6. Chinas supply and demand of natural gas, 20082020. By 2015, Chinas

gap between gas supply and demand is expected to rise to about 55 billion cubic meters.
Source: 2009 China Energy Development Blue Book, Academy of Social Sciences
Natural gas supply
Natural gas consumption
250
Billion cubic meters
ing coal the same distance. By balancing the

amount of coal transported to plants in the
northwestern areas with the amount of electricity moved to the east, Chinas energy supply security is improved in the eastern and
central regions. This approach also optimizes
the use of energy, land, and environmental resources while promoting development of regional economies. According to the proposed
program, new transmission will account for
20% of energy export in western areas.
Accelerating the regional optimization of
coal-fired power requires mutual cooperation
between supply-side and demand-side regions.
Eastern areas lacking energy must receive coal,
wind, and hydro power from western areas. In
order to meet increased electricity demand
and environmental protection requirements,
it is important to control new coal power installations and focus development on nuclear,
hydro, solar, and pumped storage plants. In
addition, power development regions and
demand-side regions should actively seek
government support and establish strategic cooperation mechanisms to ensure an economic
and reliable power supply.
200
150
100
50
0
2008
www.powermag.com
2010
2015E
2020E
POWER January 2012
POWER IN CHINA
studies are still required to reach the comprehensive target of energy structure adjustment
and power system peak shaving. Large-scale
development of gas power is very difficult, as
the natural gas supply is located far from the
natural gas demand in China.
Pumped Storage. The pumped storage
power station is the most economical and
reliable energy storage technology that can
also function as peak shaving, frequency
modulation, accident spare, and black-start
plant (Table 2). This type of plant can also
respond swiftly with good load-following
capability. Meanwhile, the development of
pumped storage power can effectively reduce
installation capacity and the amount of peaking supplied by coal power. The operating efficiency of coal is also improved when used
Today, gas supply predictions from companies such as Petro China and Sinopec are
optimistic. China has large growth potential
for gas supply (the available reserve of natural gas has been increasing), which meets
domestic demand during the 12th Five-Year
Plan period and will meet the 13th Five-Year
Plan period demand by importing more gas
at a higher price.
The price of electricity from natural gas
fired plants is highly affected by market
price. Taking gas supply, price, and other
factors into account, Chinas natural gas
generation in the future should be moderate
and located mainly in eastern load center
regions to cover peaking power and develop
cogeneration units. The installed capacity of
gas-fired power is only 24 GW, and in-depth
Table 2. The construction status of pumped storage power stations in

China. Source: China Electricity Council
Installed capacity
(GW)
Capacity under
construction (GW)
Total GW
East China
4.86
3.86
8.72
North China
3.70
0.60
4.30
South China
3.30
2.78
6.08
Central China
2.29
1.50
3.79
Northeast China
0.90
2.40
2.70
Region
Northwest China
0.09
NA
9.00
Total
12.55
11.14
15.69
Goal 4: Develop Distributed

Energy Sources
Table 3. New pumped storage projects in China. Source: China Electricity Council
Planning station sites
Region
Number
Recent recommended sites
Capacity (MW)
Number
Capacity (MW)
North China
23
30,000
12
17,600
Northeast China
17
17,600
13
13,500
East China
21
29,650
9,350
Central China
26
30,410
11
12,310
Northwest China
Total
13
12,800
5,800
100
120,460
48
58,760
7. Pumped storage projects grow. Actual pumped storage projects (1999 to 2010) and
predictions for new projects (2011 to 2015) are illustrated. Source: China Statistical Yearbook,
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
6,000
kW (104)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
20 E
12
20 E
13
20 E
14
20 E
15
E
10
11
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
20
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
19
19
94
January 2012 POWER
www.powermag.com
with pumped storage. In order to add peak

shaving to a grid with large-scale nuclear and
wind power connected, it is critical to construct pumped storage power stations and
accelerate the development of other energy
storage technologies.
Chinas opportunity to develop many
pumped storage projects is vast: More than
130 GW of potential sites have been identified. Pumped storage power stations in eastern and central business areas account for
about 50% of total site resources, with 15%
each for North China Power Grid, Northeast Power Grid, and Southern Power Grid,
according to the National Grid Energy Research Institute. However, pumped storage
power stations on the Northwest Power Grid
have fewer resourcesless than 10% of the
total. Planned and recommended sites for
new pumped storage projects are shown in
Table 3. The growth in pumped storage projects in China is illustrated in Figure 7.
Chinas electricity load center is in the
eastern and central regions, which have large
peak-valley altitude differences and good resource sites for pumped storage. Therefore,
future pumped-storage power stations will be
mainly distributed in these regions.
Distributed energy sources are located on

the demand side and have many advantages:
They improve energy utilization efficiency
with energy gradient utilization; reduce energy transmission pressure and transmission
losses; reduce pollutant emissions when using renewable energy; and solve the problem of energy supply to remote or sparsely
populated areas to achieve universal power
service. However, distributed energy sources
also have problems, such as large capacity
per unit cost and high technical requirements.
The current development of distributed energy mainly focuses on distributed renewable
energy, natural gas cogeneration, and combined heat and power (CHP) systems with
energy-saving benefits.
Distributed energy is an important development trend for future energy technology
and supplements the central power plant
system. Distributed energy has already
been developed and applied in many other
countries. For example, the U.S. has more
than 6,000 distributed energy stations with
installed capacity totaling 92 GW. The proportion of distributed energy in Denmark
and the Netherlands is about 60% and 40%,
respectively. The installed capacity and total amount of distributed energy is small in
China today. Focusing on cogeneration or
CHP systems, gas-fired distributed energy
systems are mostly concentrated in Beijing,
53
POWER IN CHINA
Shanghai, Guangzhou, and other big cities.
Distributed renewable energy sources will
be mainly concentrated in remote areas and
will meet local electricity demand through
wind power and solar power.
In order to promote the development
of distributed energy, the National Energy
Board has stated that most large-scale cities
in the country will implement distributed energy systems by 2020. At a national energy
conference in early 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission specified that the installed capacity of distributed
energy should reach 50 GW by 2020.
However, there are still technical, economic, resource, and policy constraints for
distributed energy, including: lack of clear
and unified technical standards; lack of a
reasonable price system and mechanisms,
as current price systems cannot reflect energy scarcity and environmental value; dependence on imports of key equipment and
lack of economic advantage; and equipment
that is subject to constraints of gas supply
and pipeline network coverage. Therefore,
China should establish uniform technical
standards and develop a rational energy
price mechanism for distributed energy. In
addition, the standard management of distributed energy should be enhanced and the
development of distributed energy should
be promoted by the approach experiment
first, promotion later.
Goal 5: Construct a Strong and

Smart Grid
The diverse locations of fuel supplies,
plants, and population/electrical demand
requires China to make full use of basic
functions of the grid such as long distance,
high capacity, and high energy efficiency.
During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, it is
important to accelerate the construction of
inter-provincial transmission systems and
promote the development of large bases for
coal, hydropower, nuclear power, and other
new energy resources. China can optimize
the allocation of these energy resources
by the approach of common transmission
channel, joint development and network to
network delivery.
A cross-regional, long-distance, and
high-capacity transmission channel connecting Chinas northwestern coal base and
eastern load center regions will be built
after the layout optimization of coal-fired
power so as to achieve joint transport of
coal and wind power. Studies showed that
the development scale of wind power in Xin
Jiang, Gan Su, Meng Xi, Meng Dong, and
Ji Lin will be approximately 80 GW, 75%
of which needs to be sent inter-provincially.
Abundant solar energy resources in northwestern areas will be developed greatly by
2020, and this inter-provincial transmission
infrastructure will allow China to expand
the development scale of wind and solar
8. UHV power grid plan by 2015. Source: State Council, The 12th Five-Year Plan for
National Economic and Social Development
Xi Meng
Zhang Bei-Nan Chang
Zhang Bei
Meng Xi
Bei Jing
Shan Bei
Jin Zhong
Jin Bian
Xi Meng-Nan Jing
Shi Jiazhuang
Yu Bei
Jin Bian-Lian Yungang
Ji Nan
Wei Fang
Xu Zhou
Lian Yungang
Zhu Madian
Nan Yang
Ya An-Shang Hai
He Fei
Nan Jing
Wu Han
Chong Qing
Xi An
Zhe Bei
Jing Men
Le Shan
Shsng Hai
Nan Chang
Chang Sha
Meng Xi-Chang Cha
54
www.powermag.com
power because it can be transmitted along

with coal power, thereby avoiding economic problems because of isolated development and delivery.
Northwestern coal bases and southwestern hydropower bases have large potential
to export power. According to the analysis of grid transmission ability, coal-fired
power flow will increase 100% from 2015
to 2020. Southwestern hydropower will be
the focus in the future, given the distribution and development of water resources.
The outgoing capacity of hydropower from
the Jin Sha River is 13.9 GW and 30.9 GW
in 2015 and 2020, respectively, while from
Si Chuan it is 17.2 GW and 22.2 GW. The
massive pattern of west to east and north
to south will be formed by then, and the
ability of UHV and cross-transmission will
be increased dramatically.
Power development should not only follow its own law of development but also
continue to innovate and progress. On the
supply side, the power system must not only
constantly adapt to technological advances
and large-scale development with clean and
efficient development of traditional fossil
fuel power generation but also meet the new
development requirements for hydropower,
wind power, solar power, and other renewable energy.
On the demand side, it is necessary to
adapt technologies to meet the electricity
needs of industrialization, urbanization,
modernization, and information while
meeting green development, energy saving, and low-carbon requirements. On the
grid side, it is essential to provide safe,
economical, clean, and efficient power
products for a modern society. Based on
an intelligent, modern, efficient information platform and service network, a smart
grid can collect and respond to a diversified supply side and demand side, and satisfy the electricity needs of all.
Smart grids are developing actively
abroad. They can provide a dynamic platform for a variety of distributed energy
resources to connect flexibly and provide
an intelligent control and management
platform to improve energy efficiency and
achieve demand side response. In addition,
a smart grid can provide an innovative application platform for electric vehicles and
thereby help resolve issues such as power
supply security and sustainable development. Combining the characteristics of
Chinas energy resource with the sustainable development of its economy and society, State Grid Corp. proposed strategic
objectives for a strong and smart grid.
A strong and smart grid requires an information and communication platform
POWER January 2012
POWER IN CHINA
9. Modern transmission projects. China, which in 2008 had already completed one
1,000-kV UHV AC circuit, in July put into operation the 2,000-kilometer, 800-kV XiangjiabaShanghai link. Two other 800-kV DC circuits recently completed construction. The Longquan
high-voltage DC converter station shown here is similar to those used at Chinas massive hydropower transmission projects. Courtesy: ABB
scale energy resource allocation optimization with high efficiency (Figure 9).
As a new strategy for economic growth
and emerging industries, a smart grid will
bring great business opportunities for the
power industry itself, for related upstream
and downstream industries, and for the
high-tech equipment manufacturing industry. However, opportunities and challenges
exist side by side. In future developments,
China should emphasis innovation on critical power system equipment and master
key technologies, key components, and
raw materials production with intellectual
property rights through independent innovation. Otherwise, the future implementation of a smart grid will result in higher
risk and poor economic effectiveness.
Therefore, the independent innovation of
the power industry will play a very important role in the future development of the
energy industry in China.
The work described in this paper was
supported by The Energy Foundation (G1006-12630).
By Zeng Ming, Xue Song

(xuesongbjhd@163.com), Zhu Xiaoli, and
Ma Mingjuan, North China Electric Power
University, Beijing, China.
abt. ms 1-3 . 7/11:Layout 1
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T R A I N I N G
with the means of intelligent control. Incorporating generation, transmission, substations, and power distribution, a smart
grid can allocate AC and DC rationally
and cover all voltage levels to adapt to the
development of inter-provincial transmission. Above all, smart grid is a modern grid
that is strong and reliable, economically effective, and environmentally friendly. The
UHV power grid plan by 2015 for China is
shown in Figure 8. In contrast with smart
grid developments abroad that stress demand side management, power transmission is also important for China.
During the period of the 12th FiveYear Plan, the power industry should focus construction on the transmission grid
backbone, which connects major energyproducing regions to main load centers.
Besides, the optimal allocation of energy
resources should be achieved to adapt to
the construction of an electricity market
platform while reducing the proportion of
fossil energy consumption.
In addition, it is needed to strengthen
the distribution network construction to
improve power supply reliability and meet
the needs of distributed energy development. It is estimated that a strong and
smart grid, which is centered on an UHV
synchronous network and with the characteristic of high security and reliability, will
be built by 2020. It can also achieve large-

www.powermag.com
55
PRBCUG Small Plant of the Year:

Muscatine Power & Water
Employees at the 293-MW Muscatine Power & Water plant combine a positive attitude with an aggressive focus on workplace safety, inspired by
the motto: We all can adapt, adopt, and improve to meet the challenges
head on to provide our customers with reliable power. The facility began
using Powder River Basin coal in 1993, and the staff have learned effective techniques to use it safely.
By Angela Neville, JD
eadquartered in Muscatine, Iowa, on the

Mississippi River, Muscatine Power &
Water (MP&W) provides electricity, water, and communications products and services
to a 24-square-mile service area (Figure 1).
MP&W is the largest municipally owned utility
in the state in terms of generating capacity and
revenue. Established in 1922, the MP&W electric utility has a service area of 22,719 residents
and 11,204 electric customers. This year, its operational practices made it an award-winner.
The Powder River Basin Coal Users
Group (PRBCUG) conducted its annual meeting in conjunction with the 2011 ELECTRIC
POWER Conference & Exhibition in May
2011. Each year the PRBCUG recognizes two
PRBCUG Coal Plants of the Year (Large and
Small Plant categories) for their innovation
and implementation of best practices and
best available technologies. The Large Coal
Plant of the Year award went to Kansas City
Power & Lights Iatan Unit 2, coincidentally
the 2011 POWER Plant of the Year (see our
August 2011 issue or the archives at www
.powermag.com). The Small Plant Award
went to the MP&W plant (Figure 2).
Both winning plants each year are inducted
into the PRBCUGs Power Plant Hall of Fame.
Selections are made by the board, with input
from the groups members. PRBCUG membership consists of users and prospective users of
PRB coals (generating companies or industrial
energy consumers). Associate members from
companies supplying coal, equipment, or services also participate in the selection process.
In November, Greg Krieser, past chair of
the PRBCUG Board of Directors, told POWER
why the MP&W plant is viewed as being an
industry leader in handling PRB coal. The
story of the City of Muscatines MP&W
plant embodies the principles of the Powder
River Basin Coal Users Group, Kreiser said.
They learned from the experience of others,
and they shared their experiences for the benefit of others. Our group wants to thank Mark
56
Costello, the MP&W maintenance supervisor,

and his staff for implementing the best practices for safe and efficient use of PRB coal.
Facility Overview
The MP&W facility consists of three main
generation units: Units 7, 8/8A, and 9. In
2010, the units produced a combined total of
1,128 GWh of electricity.
The units have the following profiles:

Unit 7 began commercial operation in

1958. It has a Wickes stoker-fired boiler
and a 25-MW GE turbine generator.
Unit 8 began commercial operation in
1968. It has a Babcock & Wilcox (B&W)
cyclone-fired boiler and a 75-MW GE turbine generator.
1. Energizing Iowa. A nighttime view of the Muscatine Power & Water (MP&W) plant located
on the Mississippi River in southeastern Iowa. Established in 1922, MP&W is the largest municipally
owned utility in the state in terms of generating capacity and revenue. Courtesy: MP&W
2. A powerful team. The main reasons for the plants success: the employees of Muscatine Power & Water plant. Shown from left to right are Jeff Hedrington, safety manager; Ray
Danz, director of power production and supply; Mike Avesing, plant manager; Scott Clester, material handling supervisor; Mark Costello, maintenance supervisor; and Greg Krieser, past chair
of the PRBCUG Board of Directors. The photo was taken in May 2011 at the ELECTRIC POWER
Awards Banquet. Source: POWER
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012

Unit 8A began commercial operation in

2000. It has an 18.05-MW noncondensing
Mitsubishi turbine with an Alstom generator. Steam for Unit 8A is supplied from
Unit 8s boiler. Exhaust steam from the
units turbine is used to supply a local grain
processing facility with steam from two reboilers that flash condensate from the grain
company back into process steam for use at
the grain processing facility.
Unit 9 began commercial operation in 1983.
It has a Combustion Engineering (now Alstom Power) T-fired pulverized boiler and a
175-MW GE turbine generator.
During 2010, the units delivered the following performance numbers:

Unit 7, which experienced 2.52 unplanned

outage hours and 2.52 forced outage
hours, had a 99.97% availability factor
and a 71.82% service factor.
Unit 8, which experienced 760.67 unplanned outage hours and 525.9 forced
outage hours, had an 84.42% availability
factor and a 43.72% service factor.
Unit 8A, which experienced 372.93 unplanned outage hours and 134.52 forced
outage hours, had an 88.88% availability
factor and an 88.88% service factor.
Unit 9, which experienced 43.86 unplanned outage hours and 3.28 forced outage hours, had a 99.49% availability factor
and a 94.08% service factor.
Conversion to PRB coal in Units 7 and 8

started in 1998, and both conversions were
completed in 1999. Now all MP&W units
burn 100% PRB coal.
Units 7 and 8 switched to PRB coal in
1999 with a pretty rough start right out of the
gate, Costello said. This was a much more
difficult task at these older units because they
had never been intended to burn PRB coal.
The results from these conversion attempts
showed our shortcomings in the fall of 1999
when we blew the roofs off both these units as
a result of primary and secondary explosions
in our bunker galleries (Figures 4 and 5). Fortunately, no one was hurt by these explosions.
Worker Safety: A
Paramount Concern
After our explosion/fire in 1999, our management made the commitment to learn everything
possible about PRB coal and the safe handling of
the coal, Costello said. Many resources were
utilizedfrom contacting other power plants to
boiler manufacturers. Ultimately, these contacts

led us to the PRB Coal Users Group, which we
have been a member of since 2001, and we have
implemented many of the best practices learned
from the annual user group meetings.
MP&W made the following changes to its
regular fire hazard inspections due to the increased volatility of PRB coal:

Hotwork procedures were developed.

Fire systems were either upgraded or new
systems were installed in critical areas.
CO2 inerting systems and aqueous filmforming foam systems were installed.
Smoke detection systems were installed in
electrical rooms.

Costello pointed out that $3.7 million was

invested to upgrade all of our areas where we
were deficient in regard to fire protection
systems. In addition, predictive maintenance
schedules had to be set up to meet all the testing criteria of the new systems.
3. Final destination. The Muscatine Power & Water plant owns two trains that deliver PRB coal
from Wyoming. Once the coal arrives at the plant, it is processed through a bottom dump rail facility
and stockpiled in the coal yard. The largest blue building shown in the photo is Unit 9; the red buildings
are Units 7, 8, and 8A. The material handling buildings are also blue. Courtesy: MP&W
Currently, 130 employees work at the plant

and handle operations, maintenance, technical, electrical, material handling, supply chain
services, and environmental services.
Making the Switch to PRB Coal

Southern Illinois bituminous coal was used in
all three boilers prior to switching to PRB coal,
Costello explained. PRB coal comes mostly
from Wyoming and Montana. Readers of this
magazine are by now familiar with the primary
characteristics of PRB coal: It is low in sulfur
and heat content, and very volatile if not properly handled and stored. Costello said that the
MP&W staff tried multiple PRB test coals,
including Eagle Butte, Jacobs Ranch, Black
Thunder, and Antelope coal, and now burn coal
from the Buckskin and Black Thunder coal
mines (Figure 3). No coal is blended.
At the MP&W plant, it took approximately a year from start to finish to carry out the
initial switch to PRB coal. Leading the conversion process, Unit 9 converted in 1993.
Unit 9 was unique in that it was originally
designed to burn PRB coal and converted to
bituminous coal during construction in 1982,
Costello said. So when we converted to PRB
coal in 1993 the challenges were minimal.
January 2012 POWER
4. An explosive situation. The explosion and fire that occurred at the Muscatine
Power & Water plant in September 1999 was
an eye-opening experience that motivated
plant personnel to learn about the safe handling of PRB coal. Courtesy: MP&W
www.powermag.com
5. Hard lesson learned. The explosion that

blew the roofs off Units 7 and 8 was caused by
primary and secondary explosions in the bunker
galleries, shortly after the conversion to PRB coal
was completed. Fortunately, no one was hurt as
a result of the explosions. Courtesy: MP&W
57

Overcoming Fuel-Handling
Challenges
After the initial rough start with Units 7
and 8, the MP&W staff instituted a rigorous process to incorporate the best practices
and technologies in the industry to minimize
problems related to the use of PRB coal. Costello noted that the three units each had a different type of combustion technology, which
presented unique operating challenges.
In 1999 when the MP&W staff began converting Units 7 and 8, they had Tim Korrs, a
6. New dust busters. As part of MP&Ws
$5.7 million dust improvement project, more

advanced dust collectors and dustless transfer chutes were added, which eliminated the
need for several older model dust collectors.
Courtesy: MP&W
7. Protection against electrical

hazards. The MP&W staff identified all of
their electrical equipment hazards and developed the facilitys 70E Electrical Protection
Program. The use of decals helps to identify
the personnel protective equipment needed
to safely rack out plant equipment. The staff
also went through the plant and reduced as
many arc flash areas as possible to lower levels, wherever applicable. Courtesy: MP&W
58
B&W representative, come to the plant and do

airflow calculations on the total, secondary,
and primary airflows. As a result of Korrs
findings, the staff reduced the primary air orifice in the duct to allow them to run the damper farther open to help them control primary
air better. Costello said that Korrs helped us
fine-tune our controls and switched us over
from boiler O2 control to fuel/air ratio control,
which helped us tremendously.
Our cyclone-fired boiler was probably the
most challenging, with it having a small fire
box and being a pressurized unit, he said.
We added Diamond Power Hydro-Jets to
Unit 9 for additional wall-cleaning capabilities and a water lance to Unit 8 for additional
upper furnace/screen tube cleaning.
On the B cyclone in Unit 8, the primary
air duct was flush in the secondary air duct. The
MP&W staff had trouble with airflow balance
and then made an elbow on the primary air duct
so that it actually scoops the air out of the secondary air stream. This modification has also
helped them to achieve a good airflow balance.
Costello added that it takes constant monitoring with visual boiler inspections by the
operators to keep the boilers operating efficiently and to prevent any tapping problems.
Coal tonnage through the cyclone is a big
issue, he said. If we can keep it in the 14
tons/hour range we can do pretty well without gas pilots. Its when we get above that
level and most definitely up in the 17-ton
range that pilots are needed, especially if
burning wet coal or coal that has been on the
stockpile for a while and has lost Btus.
During the spring 2005 outage, the cyclone
casings were re-skinned. Costello explained
that this action was taken because we had
been experiencing a lot of burn thrown on
the cyclone skins. The MP&W staff also increased the horse power on the drive motors
in the material handling area so the additional
coal tonnage could be fed to the plant.
duties as a result of the switch to PRB coal.

He emphasized that the staff cannot leave any
coal dust lying around or accumulating near
coal conveying rollers because PRB coal will
self-ignite if exposed to any heat source. Conveyor rooms are washed and swept daily. As
part of the plants current cleaning regimen,
the operations staff have assigned cleaning areas throughout the plants.
Bunker rooms and coal handling out
buildings were not originally designed for
washdown, he said. Through the conversion process, all areas are now hosed down
daily and monitored.
During any outage in which coal is left in
the bunkers, the bunkers are filled and inerted
with CO2. As a standard operating procedure,
the MP&W staff does not leave coal in the
bunkers any longer than five days. Costello
said that the coal is also monitored daily
with a laser temperature gun for hotspots
along with visual inspections. All bunker
doors are kept closed as well.
Dealing with Dust
Leading by Example
Dust control was one of our biggest challenges, he said. We took a six-phase approach with dust improvement projects
totaling $5.7 million, which were started in
2001 and completed in 2009. Multiple technologies where utilized in all areas of the
plants material-handling systems.
Costello explained that after the plants initial changeover to PRB coal, it took several
additional years to implement all of the improvement projects, from fire protection to coalhandling chute modifications and replacements.
Other changes involved managing a larger coal
pile, adding dust collectors and dust suppression
systems, and replacing belt skirtings (Figure 6).
Costello also said that the plant had to make
significant changes to its regular housekeeping
POWER congratulates the management and

staff of the Muscatine Power & Water plant for
being named the 2011 PRBCUG Small Coal
Plant of the Year. As more facilities follow the
example set by award-winning facilities like the
MP&W plant, the trend toward smarter ways of
handling jobsite risks should produce positive,
long-lasting results for workplace safety.
For further information on the MP&W
plant or the plants improvement projects,
please contact Mark Costello, maintenance
supervisor, at 563-262-3503 or mcostell@
mpw.org. Additional information on the
PRBCUG and its awards program is available at www.prbcoals.com.
www.powermag.com
Creating a Culture of Achievement

Costello listed the reasons why he thinks the
Muscatine employees are so successful at
carrying out the dual imperatives of efficient
plant operations and workplace safety:
Aggressive cleaning schedules at the plant.
Use
of technology to prevent dust accumulation.

Development of a comprehensive combustible dust management program.
Development and implementation of the
National Fire Protection Associations
70E standard for electrical safety in the
workplace (Figure 7).
Positive attitudes of all the employees.
Overall pride in the plant, evidenced by
the close-knit employees, who typically
are friends, family, and neighbors.
A safety culture second to none.
Angela Neville, JD is POWERs

senior editor.
POWER January 2012
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PLANT O&M
Navigant Announces Coal-Fired

Generation Operational Excellence
Awards
Navigants Operational Excellence Awards are presented annually to those
North American coal-fired generation plants that have demonstrated excellence in cost-efficient reliable plant performance over the preceding
five-year period. The data used to select the winners derives from Navigants Generation Knowledge Service fossil database.
By Dale Probasco and Bob Ruhlman, Navigant Consulting Inc.
lectricity produced from coal combustion remains the foundation of the U.S.
power generation system. According to
the latest available data from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration, coal-fired generation accounts for 30.7% of the nations
installed capacity yet produces 45.9% of
the electricity sold in the U.S., based on net
summer capacity. The high reliability and affordable cost of electricity produced in large
scale from coal has fueled the growth of the
U.S. economy and has facilitated many technological advances, which in turn stimulates
productivity.
To recognize the contribution of coal-fired
electricity to our society, Navigant presents
annual Operational Excellence Awards to
three plants each year, based on average unit
size:

Small plant: average unit size less than

200 MW
Medium plant: average unit size 200 MW
to 500 MW
Large plant: average unit size greater than
500 MW
The slate of candidates is taken from those
plants that have made continuous data submissions to Navigants Generation Knowledge Service (GKS) for the entire five-year
evaluation period. Navigants GKS database
contains detailed, unit-level cost and reliability data on more than 2,000 generating units
representing more than 400 GW of capacity.
The award selection criteria are designed
to identify plants that best demonstrate the
following characteristics:

Efficient nonfuel operation and maintenance (NFOM) cost management

High availability
60
Improving reliability trend

Predictable reliability performance
Efficient NFOM Cost Management.
Efficient NFOM is measured using Navigants Normalized Cost Index (NCI), which
is the ratio of a plants actual NFOM cost to
the predicted cost for the five-year evaluation period. The evaluation also ensures that
there are no unusual circumstances affecting
the evaluation (such as plants significantly
altering their financial and/or operational status due to announced unit retirements). Additionally, NFOM costs include replacement
capital to better provide an apples-to-apples
comparison.
Predicted cost is based on a unit-level
NFOM multivariate regression model that
includes more than 500 coal units. The cost
model utilizes anywhere from eight to 10 statistically significant independent variables,
including unit size, boiler cycle technology,
fuel characteristics (such as heat content and
percent sulfur), scrubbed/unscrubbed, and
utilization.
The model is very reliable, exhibiting an
adjusted R-square value of anywhere from
88% to 92%. To determine the NCI value for
any given plant, the actual NFOM plant level
spend is divided by the sum of the individual
unit-level predicted NFOM values. NCI values >1 suggest that the actual NFOM spend
is greater than the predicted value, whereas
values <1 suggest the actual NFOM spend is
less than the predicted value. For each plant
size category, the plant-level NCI values are
ordered from lowest to highest to determine
the plant rankings for efficient NFOM cost
management.
High Availability. A plant-level equivalent availability factor (EAF) is calculated

www.powermag.com
for the previous five-year period according to

the NERC/GADS weighted (capacity-based)
performance index pooling unit calculations
specified in Appendix F of the GADS data
reporting instructions. The plant-level EAF
values are ordered from high to low within
each plant size category to determine rankings for the availability component.
Improving Reliability Trend. This evaluation component seeks to reward plants demonstrating improvement in their reliability
over the five-year evaluation period. Equivalent unplanned outage rate (EUOR) was chosen because it incorporates derates and both
forced and maintenance outages and is based
on actual demand similar to the equivalent
forced outage rate (EFOR) calculation. A
quarterly plant-level EUOR value is calculated and plotted over the five-year period. The
slope of the simple regression line is used to
quantify the rate of improvement or degradation in plant reliability. A negative slope indicates an improving trend in reliability, while
a positive slope indicates a degrading trend in
reliability. The regression slopes are then ordered from low to high in order to determine
the plant rankings in the improving reliability
category.
Predictable Reliability Performance.
This component captures the negative impact that high-impact/low-probability (HILP)

events have on overall plant performance. It is
a subtle measure and is not weighted heavily
in the overall rankings relative to the three previously listed components. The impact of this
component is determined by measuring the
amount of variability that exists in the quarterly EUOR data mentioned above. Higher measures of variability are usually associated with
HILP-type events. The variability measure is
ordered from low to high in order to determine
the plant rankings for this category.
POWER January 2012
PLANT O&M
1. Winning plant. AmerenUEs Labadie Energy Center, located in Labadie, Mo., was the winner of Navigants 2011 Operational Excellence
Award in the Large Coal Plant category. Shown in the photo, from left to right, are: David Fox, director, Fossil Generation; David Strubberg, manager, Labadie Energy Center; Dale Probasco, managing director, Navigant; Steven Mooney, chief steward Local Union #148 at Labadie; and Mark
Birk, vice president, Power Operations. Courtesy: Navigant Consulting Inc.
Combined Ranking Index

Each of the previous four measurements
listed is then weighted according to overall
importance (slight variances exist among the
three award categories) as determined by the
GKS client-based steering committee. For
example, availability/reliability measures
are weighted somewhat higher for the large
plant category because these units typically
have higher margins and are more strategically significant than units in the small plant
category. Once weighting factors are assigned, an overall Combined Ranking Index
is computed within each plant size category.
Plants are then ranked with the two best-performing plants in each category selected as
award recipients. For 2012, Navigant and the
GKS Steering Committee have agreed to add
worker safety to the plant selection criteria.
2011 Operational Excellence Award

Recipients
Operational Excellence Award recipients for
the 20062010 evaluation period were announced in early summer 2012:

Small Coal Plant Category. Winner: Dominion Generations Mecklenburg plant,

located in Clarksville, Va. Runner-up:
Progress Energys Cape Fear plant, located near Moncure, N.C.
Medium Coal Plant Category. Winner:
Mid-American Energys Neal Energy
Center, located in Sergeant Bluff, Iowa.
Runner-up: TVAs Gallatin plant, located
in Gallatin, Tenn.
January 2012 POWER
Large Coal Plant Category. Winner: AmerenUEs Labadie Energy Center, located
in Labadie, Mo. (Figure 1). Runner-up:
Luminants Monticello plant, located in
Monticello, Texas.
These six plants averaged 91% EAF,

3.4% EFOR, and a NFOM spending efficiency of 26% less than the NFOM cost
model predicted value for the five-year
evaluation period.
Key Success Factors

In June 2011, Navigant held its annual Operational Excellence Award meeting for GKS
subscribers. At this meeting, plant representatives highlighted the key factors that contributed to their success:

Keep the plant staff lean and individual

productivity high while treating people
well to maximize individual contributions
and worth.
Recognize that for most units, major
overhauls are the largest source of plant
availability loss. Overhauls continue to
challenge plant staff with regards to both
scope and frequency (that is, increasing
intervals).
Focus capital investment to eliminate large
electrical load reductions.
Incorporate strong preventive maintenance and predictive maintenance programs, with a focus on being data-driven
and moving toward condition-based decision-making.
www.powermag.com
Be process-driven, with ownership and accountability expected at every level of the

organization.
Make personnel safety a top priority.
Embrace hands-on engineering rather than
sitting behind a desk.
Implement an Outage Control Center
process for all outages (planned maintenance and forced outages).
Implement a short-notice outage work
process to take maximum advantage of
forced and maintenance outages.
Recognize that the secret to success is the
plants workforce and that people are the
No. 1 asset.
Look for opportunities to move selected
maintenance to operations when qualified
people are present.
Incorporate an operations and maintenance
continuous training program: Perfect
Practice Makes Perfect Performance.
Accept nothing less than teamwork.
Take calculated risks with equipment
(but never safety) to maximize spending
efficiency.
Track daily department-level costs.
Maintain expertise in critical equipment
and plant operations and bring long-term
focus to the decision-making process, thus
improving current operation and maintenance cycles.
Dale Probasco (dprobasco@

navigant.com) is a managing director
and Bob Ruhlman (rruhlman@navigant.
com) is an associate director in Navigants Energy Practice.
61
WORKSITE SAFETY
Real-time Proactive Safety in

Construction
For each of the past 10 years, nearly 1,200 U.S. construction workers have
died as the result of injuries received on the job. Of these fatalities, 25%
involved heavy equipmentmost categorized as struck-by incidents. Remote sensing and visualization technology promises to improve worker
situational awareness on congested and busy work sites.
By Larry Green, CSP, DuPont and Gary Tominack, Day & Zimmerman
ost large power plant construction

projects will consume two or three
million man-hours over several
years without a contractor experiencing a
worker fatality. Contractors for those projects
have embraced modern work site safety practices, such as behavioral safety management,
onsite traffic flow management, continuous
worker training, and policy changes. Despite
these apparent safety advancements, the safety record of the entire construction industry
lags other industry sectors: about one-quarter
of all construction deaths are related to construction equipment and contact collisions
(see sidebar).
What happens when the organizational

commitment to safety falls short, supervisors
and/or employees slip up, and PPE fails? One
option is to add an extra level of proactive
measures. Proactive, real-time safety programs provide workers on foot and equipment
operators in motion with real-time proximity
alert devices that can help prevent collision
events through an early warning mechanism,
a concept recently proven by a trial program
sponsored by the Construction Industry Insti-
Technology Field Trial Design

The primary objective of the field trials was
to test an integrated, proactive, real-time
safety technology that increases situational
awareness and safety on construction sites.
The equipment worn by workers or installed
No. 1 Cause of Construction Injuries: Collisions

Center for Disease Control (CDC) construction accident data for 2009 shows that there
were 834 fatal on-the-job injuries to construction workers, representing 19% of all
work-related deaths. Thats down from 975
in 2008. CDC data also shows that of 465
vehicle-related construction fatalities (1992
through 1998 data), 318 of the victims were
workers on foot, and the equipment commonly involved in the collisions was trucks
(60%) and large construction equipment
(30%). Of the 465 fatalities, 110 involved
equipment operators; the remaining 37 involved supervisors or other workers. Fiftyone percent of the fatalities occurred when a
vehicle was operated in reverse.
Safety Best Practices and Technology

OSHA regulations help establish construction site safety policies and procedures. For
example, OSHA mandates the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) in particular work environments, including hard hats,
safety shoes, goggles, face shields, reflective clothing such as safety vests, heavy or
thin (leather) gloves, hearing protection, wet
weather gear, and respirators or filter masks.
These types of PPE are passive safety devices, because they do not proactively warn
or provide feedback to the wearer. A passive
approach to safety is not sufficient to prevent
the occurrence of contact collisions between
workers and moving construction equipment.
Safety education and training are forms of
proactive safety that are routinely conducted
to increase workers ability to recognize and
avoid construction hazards. However, the
behavior of individuals on a construction
site is not predictable and is often affected
by factors such as fatigue and distractions.
Nonetheless, it remains each workers responsibility to follow the rules, guidelines,
and best safety practices. Proactive safety,
perhaps better described as a worker having
situational awareness, also does not prevent
contact collisions.
62
tute (CII, see sidebar). The system includes a

technology protective device and a sitewide
visualization system that can work reliably in
harsh construction environments.
The Occupational Safety and Health Administration construction worker fatality

database for the period 1990 through 2007
reveals similar data. For collisions involving forklifts, skid steer loaders, scrapers,
and backhoe loaders, 36% to 88% of the
fatalities involved workers on foot.
Although there is no data available
that identifies the specific cause of
those workerconstruction equipment
collisions, anecdotal information indicates that collisions are usually caused
by either a lack of worker experience,
appreciation of the risk factors, or loss
of situational awareness caused by construction site distractions.
What Is the Construction Industry Institute?

The Construction Industry Institute (CII)
is a consortium of more than 100 leading owner, engineering-contractor, and
supplier firms from both the public and
private sectors that have joined together
to improve the business effectiveness and
sustainability of capital facilities delivery. The CII is engaged in creating and
www.powermag.com
implementing research-based knowledge,

developing best practices, and identifying
breakthrough strategies that measurably
improve project performance, giving members a competitive edge in the marketplace. The CII is based at the University
of Texas at Austin. For more information,
visit www.construction-institute.org.
POWER January 2012
WORKSITE SAFETY
in the cab of operating equipment is designed
to warn of the presence of potential hazards,
particularly heavy equipment, to reduce the
percentage of struck-by incidents. These devices are available today from several suppliers but are seldom found in use. The second
part of the field trial was designed to combine individual signals from each worker and
piece of equipment to form a visual display
of the location of all resources on the construction site. By using visualization and predictive software to show real-time movement
of equipment and workers, contact collisions
can be avoided.
Warning Workers. When workers, equipment, and even materials are too close to each
other, this real-time system activates visual,
auditory, and vibrating alerts to warn both
workers on foot and equipment operators.
The field-tested devicesknown as equipment and personal protection unitswere
tested on workers on foot and on operating
equipment on the selected job sites.
The in-cab device on operating vehicles
was equipped with an equipment protection
unit (EPU) that consisted of a single antenna,
a reader, and an alarm. The personal protec-
1. Predict collisions.
tion unit (PPU) consisted of a chip, a battery,

and an alarm. The term personal was used
because post-trial interviews revealed that
workers like to identify themselves with the
safety devicesthey like to own them. Although the user can define the signal strength
of the EPU for each piece of equipment, the
signal is typically transmitted in a radial
manner and loses strength with distance.
The PPU then intercepts the signal at a useradjustable distance and automatically returns
the signal such that both systems trigger their
internal alarms. The operation of sending and
receiving information is instantaneous; the
whole process occurs in real time. Figures 1
and 2 show the EPU/PPU equipment during
field trials.
The PPUs are durable, wearable, and come
in different sizes. For a typical PPU, the casing is sturdy and can stand up to the daily
weathering that occurs on construction sites.
The devices are powered with conventional
AA batteries and last for at least two months,
depending on the frequency of alerts. Lightemitting-diode (LED) lights indicate when
batteries are low on power and need to be
recharged.
Alert devices were placed on workers and equipment during field
trials. Courtesy: CII
The audible alarm that occurs on both

the EPU and PPU is of sufficient strength
to get the attention of workers and operators. The alarm emits a unique sound
that is different from those common on
construction sites. The PPU also has a vibrating alarm so that workers are notified
even if wearing hearing protection or when
working in an area with loud construction
noises. Vibration alerts have the drawback
of not working well when workers wear
heavy coats in cold weather.
Sitewide Safety Net. These radio frequencybased EPU/PPU devices were then
used to develop a sitewide net that recorded
accurate location, proximity, and trajectory
data of up to 50 construction workers, equipment, and materials in real time. Proximity
data of worker locations were automatically
processed and put into a visual format to inform equipment operators of the presence of
workers not visible or to provide managers
with an overall view of site activity.
A second advantage of the sitewide safety
net is that the data retrieved from these devices can generate information from previously unreported events, such as close calls.
This never-before-available information can
lead to additional significant changes in orga-
3. Worker-to-vehicle alert.
EPU
EPU
Battery
PPU
An alert
inside the open cabin is shown by the illuminated LED lights in front of the equipment operator. At the same time, the worker receives
an audio alert. The equipment protection unit
is compact and can fit into an equipment cab
without creating any visual or mechanical obstruction. In addition to the helmet, the personal protection unit can be worn on the belt
of the worker or around the arm with an arm
band. Courtesy: CII
Battery
2. Double safe. Alerts are sent to workers on foot and equipment operators inside the cabin
when a set proximity is reached. Courtesy: CII
Visual and audio alert
EPU
PPU
Audio alert
Within proximityactive warning/alert
January 2012 POWER
www.powermag.com
63
WORKSITE SAFETY
nizational safety practices. The technology to
collect and analyze this data was developed
as part of this project and is not currently
commercially available.
Worksite Technology Testing

The system testing occurred at a broad spectrum of construction sites. The team selected
15 construction sites in the southeastern U.S.:
five small to large building construction sites;
seven small commercial construction sites;
two large industrial construction sites; and
one union ironworker indoor training facility.
The value of the construction work ranged
from $2 million to $1 billion, and the number of construction workers employed ranged
from 15 to 2,000. The number of pieces of
motorized construction equipment used on
site ranged from five to 250.
Testing was performed with the proximity
warning devices on different types of construction equipment, including wheel loaders,
forklifts, graders, forklifts, dozers, excavators, articulated dump trucks, and mobile
cranes. Each piece of equipment was directed
to travel toward a simulated work crew. The
operator was then asked to stop the machine
once the audible or visual alert was activated
within the equipment cabin (Figure 3). The
distance between work crew and equipment
was measured, recorded, and analyzed. For
each test, the worker on foot and equipment
operator were then interviewed. Once familiarity with the equipment was completed,
long-term testing was conducted (see table).
Five PPUs of the same configuration
were tested in the preliminary field trials.
Because each equipment type may require
its own unique signal strength, setting the
warning and alert distances at a lower level
reduces the number of nuisance alerts. The
shortest empirical warning and alert distance
from EPU to PPU was 2.8 meters (9.2 feet).
Cranes, for example, are static and alerts may
only be needed when a lift is performed. The
operator is able to activate the EPU/PPU alert

system only during lifts. In contrast, scrapers
can travel up to 37 miles per hour and thus
may require earlier activated alerts at longer distances to ensure the safety of nearby
workers. All distance measurements included
the operators reaction time and the distance
required to stop the vehicle.
The most complex tests of the proactive,
real-time proximity warning devices were
performed on two large coal power plant
projects being constructed by CII members.
One of the tests involved large earth-moving
equipment and lasted for several months.
About 20 workers were provided PPUs, and
the 30 pieces of equipment were equipped
with EPUs. By the end of the study period,
this project had performed 100,000 accidentfree work hours.
Worker Tracking and

Data Visualization
The PPU/EPU trials also included a series
of location tracking tests. For these tests, the
helmets of construction workers were tagged
with ultra-wideband, real-time location tracking technology on a typical worksite (Figure
4). Computers recorded the location of tagged
resources, and the information was displayed
to safety decision-makers in remote locations
(Figure 5). Finally, the location of workers,
equipment, and materials on a work site were
reported in a 3-D virtual display environment
(Figure 6).
Worker Feedback
At the beginning and end of each field trial, participants were asked their opinions
about using the proximity and tracking de-
Field trials test summary.
Distance measurements were made for a proactive, real-time

proximity alert device with static and dynamic construction equipment in realistic construction environments (with obstructions present). A total of 193 equipment tests at 15 different construction
locations covering more than 100,000 accident-free work hours are included in the data. Source: CII
Equipment type
Number of trials
Average
recorded alert
distance (m)
Minimum
recorded alert
distance (m)
Maximum
recorded alert
distance (m)
Dynamic
4
11.9
10.6
13.6
Loader/forklift
Personnel mover
11
17.8
12.7
29.9
Grader and scraper
10
31.5
25.5
50.2
Static
Dozer
24.5
7.8
43.0
Excavator
23.4
2.8
38.0
Articulated dump truck
72
35.6
19.0
50.0
Mobile crane
80
34.0
8.9
62.5
5. Real-time rendering. Real-time location tracking of workers, equipment, and material are
shown in a plan view of the work site shown in Figure 4. The worker temporarily stepped out of the
way while the crane was swinging; other workers continued to work in their positions. Courtesy: CII
UWB
tag
Crane hook-671D 1Hz

Crane cabinet-6726 1Hz
Worker 0BC6-15Hz
Worker-781E 60Hz
Worker 2523-30Hz
Worker-588C 15Hz
Waiting
zone #1
4. Busy construction site. Movements

of a crane, tractor and trailer, and workers on
foot on this typical worksite were followed
with real-time location tracking. Courtesy: CII
Crane
swinging
Waiting
zone #2
B
C
Other workers
remain in their
position
64
www.powermag.com
Waiting
zone #3
Trajectory
of a worker
stepping out of
the way of the
load
POWER January 2012
WORKSITE SAFETY
6. Visualize the data. This is an example of a 3-D immersive visualization interface in which visu-
ally obscured workers are made visible to a crane operator on the same work site shown in Figure
4. These work site visualizations can be provided in real time in the equipment cabin or at any other
location. Source: CII
vices. A total of 143 equipment operators

and workers at the 15 sites completed the
survey. All equipment operators surveyed
volunteered to use the EPU warning devices. Four of the nine equipment operators reported multiple instances when the
alarms sounded when they were not aware
of possible danger. Although one worker
commented on the desirability of making
the device smaller, the size of the equipment was not judged intrusive by the remainder. Overall, the equipment operators
agreed that they would use the warning
devices again, if they were made available
by their company.
There were 36 field workers, welders,
carpenters, rod busters, and other trades
who tested the PPU. Site managers and
supervisors were also interviewed. Nearly
all reported feeling safer on the site during the trial. Workers stated that there were
numerous situations in which the alarms
sounded due to materials or equipment
passing overhead. Three workers reported
discomfort due to the size of the device and
its placement on the side of their hardhats.
One foreman suggested that it would be
better to embed the warning device inside
the helmet. All but two workers agreed that
they would wear the PPU again.
At one construction site, the contractor
decided to purchase the PPU/EPU for every worker on site at the close of the test
program. Each PPU cost $400 and each
EPU device cost $1,000. The total cost
of the warning devices was $120,000 for
this project. The contractor reports two
January 2012 POWER
potentially serious accidents, perhaps fatal accidents, that were prevented by using the warning devices. The devices are
even more cost-effective because they will
be reused on many future projects, perhaps
saving additional lives. The rate of return
on that investment is incalculable.
Much Work Remains

The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the safety improvement potential
when using real-time location tracking
of workers, equipment, and material on a
busy and congested work site. The sensors
worked as designed, and the proximity
warning, alerts, tracking and monitoring,
and remote real-time data visualization
tests were very successful. Workers surveyed after each trial said they generally
found the PPU nonintrusive. Based on
post-trial reports, the equipment enhanced
work site safety, recorded previously unreported incidents, and prevented possibly
two fatalities (Figure 7).
Further improvements in the operation
of the PPU/EPU are possible, particularly with regard to signal propagation in
the construction site environment, such
as ambient temperature, relative humidity, mounting position and orientation of
the devices on workers and equipment,
obstacles (metal or wooden) in the construction field, and multipath effects during signal transmission. Further work is
required to reduce the size and weight of
the PPU and optimize the placement of
sensors on workers. The location signals
www.powermag.com
7. The field team. A Georgia Tech professor, students, and volunteers performed the
field surveys. Source: CII
could also be used for accident reconstruction, monitoring confined spaces, keeping
workers out of danger areas, and tracking
work processes to improve construction
efficiency.
What follows these very successful field
trials? We hope the encouraging results
will motivate a company willing to invest
in further development of the real-time
tracking and visualization technology and
bring an integrated product to market. It is
not overly dramatic to say that lives will be
saved when this technology becomes standard practice on every work site.
Larry Green is senior safety, health,

and environmental consultant for DuPont
Global Operations and Engineering. Gary
Tominack is corporate director, safety
engineering & field services for Day &
Zimmerman. Dr. Jimmie Hinze, Holland
Professor in the M.E. Rinker, Sr. School of
Building Construction and Director of the
Center for Construction Safety and Loss
Control at the University of Florida, and
Dr. Jochen Teizer, assistant professor
and director of the RAPIDS Construction Safety and Technology Laboratory,
Georgia Institute of Technology, were the
principal investigators for this project.
Members of the Real-time Pro-active
Safety in Construction Research Team
include: Chanel T. Carter, Bechtel Group
Inc.; Dennis Cobb, ConocoPhillips; Clay
Gardenhire, The Shaw Group Inc.; Tony
C. Palma, Ontario Power Generation;
Calvin Price, SNC-Lavalin Inc.; Manny
Vahanian, U.S. General Services Administration; and Jason Valliere, SNC-Lavalin
Inc. Other organizations and companies
that provided assistance on the project
were ProTran1, Leica Geosystems, the
National Science Foundation, The Shaw
Group Inc., XYZ Solutions, VWM Construction Co., Southern Company, and
Evans Construction Co.
65
new products
TO POWER YOUR BUSINESS
A Wireless Cellular Controller
Xenon has introduced the T925 Wireless Cellular Controller for connecting remote
sites with central control and monitoring stations through cellular networks. A T925
remote communications network eliminates the need to make hardwired Ethernet
connections to the Internet or an intranet at each remote site and the central control
and monitoring station. The network operates from any location worldwide with
cellular coverage.
The T925 allows end users, machine and skid builder original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs), remote terminal unit and supervisory control and data
acquisition OEMs, security monitoring system OEMs, and other firms to monitor and
control their automation and monitoring systems through the cellular network at
sites thousands of miles away. Typical applications include pipelines, pump stations
and electrical substations. The T925 can be connected to a variety of components at a
remote site and accept up to seven Ethernet inputs as well as four digital inputs, four
analog inputs, and two temperature inputs. (www.xenoninc.com)
Universal Voltmeter Kit
HDEs newly launched DVM-80UVK Universal Voltmeter Kit expands

features of the DVM-80 series voltmeter and includes several accessories
that enable voltmeter and phasing operations for virtually all overhead
and underground applications. HDE is offering the kit as a complete,
ready-to-use universal voltmeter package. It includes a dual-stick phasing
voltmeter with overhead hook probes for use on voltages of up to 40
kV; add-on resistor sticks for measurements up to 80 kV; underground
bushing probes; a cable-fault tester; a voltmeter proof tester; shotgun
hotstick adapters; and a soft-sided, multifunctional carrying bag with
built-in bucket hooks. (www.HDElectricCompany.com)
Nonmetallic Pump/Tank Carts

Caustics, Acids
A new nonmetallic Mobile Pump/Tank Cart
from Vanton Pump and Equipment Corp.
transfers wastewater and caustic/acidic
chemicals with no corrosion and ultrapure
fluids with no contamination. All fluid
contact surfaces of the tank, base plate,
and secondary containment chamber are
of solid polypropylene, polyethylene, PVC,
or other inert thermoplastic, precluding
corrosion across the entire pH range. The
pump, a Flex-I-Liner model CC-PY12B,
utilizes a rotor mounted on an eccentric
shaft to push fluid trapped between
a flexible elastomer liner and a solid
thermoplastic body block at flows up to 2
gpm (7.6 lpm), pressures to 25 psig (1.72
bar), and temperatures to 185F (85C).
The company also offers other mobile and
stationary tank/pump systems equipped
with larger Flex-I-Liner pumps to handle
higher flows. (www.vanton.com)
66
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
NEW PRODUCTS
V-Return Style Conveyor Belt

Tracking System
ASGCO, a manufacturer of proprietary bulk conveyor

components and accessories, announced a new addition
to its line of Tru-Trainer conveyor belt tracking idlers: a
V-Return style of the companys Dual Return Tru-Trainer
Conveyor Belt Tracker. Tru-Trainer idlers react as the
conveyor belt moves off center, maintaining the belts
original position, minimizing belt wear and conveyor
downtime. The V-Return Tru-Trainer is best for v-return
overland conveyor systems. An external central pivot
mechanism was designed, obviating the need for a single,
large drum and enabling a concentric and balanced
rotation to be achieved. This results in extended bearing
life and a very fast and effective conveyor belt tracking
system. (www.asgco.com)
Advanced PV Tracking System
SunPower has introduced the SunPower C7 Tracker, a solar

photovoltaic (PV) tracking system that concentrates the
suns power seven times to achieve what the company
claims could be the lowest levelized cost of electricity
(LCOE) for utility-scale solar power plants available today.
The C7 Tracker combines single-axis tracking technology
with rows of parabolic mirrors, reflecting light onto 22.8%
efficient SunPower Maxeon solar cells. Using mirrors to
reduce the number of solar cells required to generate
electricity lowers the LCOE by up to 20% compared to
competing technologies, the company says. For example,
a 400-MW C7 Tracker power plant requires less than 70 MW
of SunPower solar cells. The C7 Tracker uses modular solar
cell receivers, allowing for future upgrades. The SunPower
advanced Tracker Monitoring and Control System provides
wireless control of the power plant for increased operating
efficiency and reduced maintenance cost.
(us.sunpowercorp.com)
Handheld Vibration Meter
Columbia Research Laboratories has introduced the Model VM-300 vibration meter,
a general purpose vibration-measuring instrument designed for periodic routine
checks of industrial equipment where portability and ease of use are required.
Acceleration, velocity, and displacement measurement modes are provided, along
with a number of value-enhancing features. Dual power allows the VM-300 to
be powered from its internal battery in the field or from an AC adapter to save
battery life in bench applications. A precision low-voltage lockout circuit prevents
the VM-300 from making erroneous readings due to low battery. An automatic
10-minute timeout during battery operation will not allow the meter to drain the
battery while unattended. An optional printer can be connected to the meter for
permanently recording measurements. (www.crlsensors.com)
Inclusion in New Products does not imply endorsement by POWER magazine.
January 2012 POWER
www.powermag.com
67
Power plant
Buyers Mart
POWERPROFESSIONALS
Opportunities in Operations and Maintenance,
Project Engineering and Project Management,
Business and Project Development,
First-line Supervision to Executive Level Positions.
Employer pays fee. Send resumes to:
POSITION ANNOUNCEMENT
MAINTENANCE MANAGER
(Senior Staff Position that reports directly to the General Manager)
P.O. Box 87875

Vancouver, WA 98687-7875
email: dwood@powerindustrycareers.com
DESCRIPTION
The Maintenance Manager is responsible for the planning and execution of all mechanical, electrical,
instrument and control maintenance for the facility. The position is also responsible for the identification
and control of all spare parts and replacement parts so as to maximize availability, reliability and power
production. The position also provides supervision of maintenance activities and contractor personnel.
(360) 260-0979 l (360) 253-5292

www.powerindustrycareers.com
Distributed Energy Storage (DES)

Project/product Manager
PRIMARY DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES:
Provide safe working environment and promote attitude of safety awareness of all plant personnel
including actively ensuring the safety of others.
Ensure personnel safety, equipment safety and high availability and reliability at minimum cost by
maintaining and supervising personnel responsible for the maintenance of all facility equipment.
Ensure continuity of maintenance through the maintenance training and development of personnel
Prepare and adhere to approved budget for maintenance
Implement the plants preventive and predictive maintenance program, including failure records in
order to provide trend information to the General Manager.
Primarily responsible for planning maintenance outages using effective time management principles
and input from other Department Heads. In addition, will observe progress of work to evaluate efficiency and work quality, while keeping the General Manager aware of progress.
Responsible for ensuring compliance with the Reliability Compliance Program
Prepare and present Committee and Board Reports as required
Exp. required to work in Lake Mary, FL.

Travel Req. Submit resume to ABB Inc.,
www.ABB.com, Careers.
Must ref job code NB51308651B .
Need help? Need a job?

Contact Lisa Lineal in confidence
SERVICES
LINEAL RECRUITING
www.Lineal.com LisaLineal@Lineal.com
Toll free 877-386-1091
REQUIREMENTS:
Bachelor of Science degree in engineering or equivalent, plus minimum of 5 years of lignite/coal

power industry experience is required; or a high school diploma plus 15 years of lignite/coal power
industry related experience
Minimum of 3 5 years as Maintenance Manager for a lignite/coal fired power plant
Excellent technical skills in the operation and maintenance of turbine/steam generating systems,
specifically calibration, repair and maintenance of instruments and controls
Proven ability to lead people and communicate effectively and appropriately
Electric Power Systems & Service Specialists

Se habla Espaol
Project Manager
Material Handling Systems
Dearborn Mid-West Conveyor Co.
Please submit resume with cover letter and salary requirements to

Sherry Wilkerson at swilkerson@smeci.net or fax to (830) 784-3411
Please visit http://www.dmwcc.com/

and click on Careers to apply.
Equal Opportunity Employer.
You Read POWER.

How Would You Like to Work for POWER ?
POWER has an immediate opening for an Editor/
Content Manager in Houston, Rockville, Md. or Norwalk,
Conn. (telecommuting is also an option from anywhere
in the continental U.S.). As part of a multi-platform
publishing team, you will enjoy working for a firmly
established print brand that is also making the best use
of current and emerging publishing platforms. This is
an ideal position for an energetic mid-career individual
looking for excellent advancement potential.
This position will be primarily responsible for writing
and producing a natural gas electronic magazine and
related products. Other core responsibilities include a
wide range of writing and editing tasks involving print
and online publications, social media, and events,
including webinars. The ability to quickly learn to use
various digital tools is a must.
JOB REQUIREMENTS
Candidates should have a four-year degree in
engineering plus experience writing in or about the
power industry OR have a four-year journalism or
communications degree with experience writing about
or for the power industry. Candidates should be able
to demonstrate their ability to clearly communicate
technical ideas in writing to both a technical and
nontechnical audience, with minimal editorial
assistance. Strong oral communication skills are also
necessary, as the selected candidate will interact with
industry executives and decision makers as well as
speak at industry events. Expertise in a particular area
of the power generation industry (especially gas-fired
technologies) is preferred.
Please submit resume and cover letter with salary requirements, along with
writing samples or links to writing samples, to apply@accessintel.com or
fax to 646-607-9058. Be sure to tell us where you saw this position advertised.
READER SERVICE NUMBER 200
68
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
Power plant Buyers Mart
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January 2012 POWER
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POWER January 2012
Advertisers Index
Enter reader service numbers on the FREE Product Information Source card in this issue.
Page
Reader
Service
Number
Applied Bolting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . . . . . 19

www.tycoflowcontrol.com
Victaulic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . 5
www.magnetrol.com
www.victaulic.com
Westinghouse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 . . . . . . . . . . 15
www.metalfabinc.com
Mitsubishi Power Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . . . . . 21
www.tic-inc.com
Tyco Flow Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . 3
www.hitachipowersystems.us
Metalfab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . 7
www.stanleyconsultants.com
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 . . . . . . . . . . 12

Magnetrol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 . . . . . . . . . . 16

TIC
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Hitachi Power Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cover 3 . . . . . . . . . . 20
www.shawgrp.com
Stanley Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 . . . . . . . . . . 17
www.fluor.com
General Physics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . 4
www.r-s.com
Shaw Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . 2
www.fennerdunlopamericas.com
Fluor Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 . . . . . . . . . . 11
www.rentechboilers.com
Roberts & Schaefer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cover 4 . . . . . . . . . . . 6
www.chromalloy.com
Fenner Dunlop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 . . . . . . . . . . 13

Rentech Boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cover 2 . . . . . . . . . . . 1
www.appliedbolting.com
Chromalloy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . . . . . . . . . 10

Page
Reader
Service
Number
www.westinghousenuclear.com
Williams Patent Crusher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 . . . . . . . . . . 14
www.mpshq.com
www.williamscrusher.com
Nol-Tec Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 . . . . . . . . . . . 9

www.nol-tec.com
Orion Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 . . . . . . . . . . 18

www.orioninstruments.com
Passavant-Geiger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Classified Advertising
Pages 68-70. To place a classified ad, contact
Dianne Hammes, 713-343-1885, dianeh@powermag.com
www.passavant-geiger.de
POWER
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71
Commentary
Upbraiding the Utilities

By Dr. Paul Michael Grant
es, youve read it right. Upbraiding, not upgrading.

Twenty-six years ago, in early 1986, Georg Bednorz and
Alex Mueller discovered high-temperature superconductivity in the family of copper oxide perovskites. The field exploded
later that year and in early 1987 when Paul Chu and his collaborators at the Universities of Houston and Alabama sighted
telltale signs of superconductivity onsets above the boiling point
of liquid nitrogen, 77K. These developments unleashed a flurry
of studies, especially in the U.S. and Japan, predicting markets
eventually exceeding several hundreds of billions of dollars,
mostly centered around electric power applications.
25 Years of Investment
The summit of this euphoria occurred in July 1987, when President Ronald Reagan convened the White House Conference on
Superconductivity in the ballroom of the Hilton Hotel in central
Washington, D.C. The president announced a series of initiatives
that were embodied in the Superconductivity Competitiveness
Act of 1988. This legislation created the Department of Energy
Initiative for Power Applications of Superconductivity, a $30 million (average) annual program designed to upgrade American
electric utilities and power equipment manufacturers to face the
looming energy demand challenges of the coming 21st century.
After retiring from IBM in 1993 to join the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), I became actively involved in the DOE
efforts as a co-funder, peer reviewer, and, yes, an occasional
congressional lobbyist.
So, here we are today, almost 25 years since that first conference and $700 million to $800 million dollars later, plus perhaps
half that amount additionally invested by the private sector.
Numerous successful demonstrations, employing both low- and
high-temperature superconductors, in almost every type of power equipmentcables, transformers, rotating machinery, fault
current limiters, storage and power conditioning deviceshave
been undertaken in America and elsewhere. The U.S. National
Laboratoriesparticularly Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Argonne, and
Brookhavenin conjunction with private companies such as
American Superconductor and SuperPower, have developed highperformance, second generation, long-length (hundreds of meters), and reliable superconducting tape suitable for deployment
in all the above applications.
Several U.S. utilities have very generously donated talent and
facilities, and redirected a portion of their EPRI dues for financial assistance in support of such efforts. The fruits of their labors now sit on the shelf awaiting insertion into the American
electric power infrastructure. Beginning in 2010, funding for the
Power Applications of Superconductivity program was removed as
a line item in the DOEs congressional appropriation, and I believe justifiably so. If Ronald Reagan were still with us, he might
say, albeit perhaps tongue-in-cheek, Mission accomplished.
72
No Technology Takers
Why has not a single U.S. investor-owned utility yet, on its own
nickel, picked the fruits of our national effort? One often hears, the
high cost of the wire or the hassle factor. The hassle factor
involves such locutions as, electricity is cheap and our in-plant
and in-field efficiencies are pretty good right now, so theres no
compelling reason to implement incremental increases of only a few
percent, or any new technology that involves a new skill set can
lead to tedious negotiations with our labor unions, or anyway, our
grid infrastructure works pretty well right now and when there are
outages its responding just as it was designed to do.
At IBM, when we would review the commercial potential of
a particular new technology, part of the process would involve
asking, What if the product were free? Would our customers still
buy it? If the wire were free, would American utilities then buy
it? And how could we bring that about? Zero cost would be
obtained in the form of a federal-state tax credit (not a subsidy!) to the equipment manufacturer or utility for the wire cost
alone associated with a given application, not to packaging
such as insulation and cryogenics, or actual installation.
Many New Barriers to Development
One also often hears that the day of superconductivity in power

will dawn with the large-scale build-out of renewable electricity
generation, which I take to comprise principally wind, solar, and
biomass. The argument goes that new connection cabling to grid
and storage substations will be necessary, so why not use superconductivity? Also, the advantageous power-to-weight ratio of a
superconducting generator makes its deployment on high wind
towers quite attractive.
However, from my point of view, such an occurrence in the U.S.
is extremely problematic given present basic and, likely future as
well, American political and social views about living space.
Anyone who has ever visited a wind farm certainly doesnt want
one in his or her backyard, and not even on the horizon. Wind,
solar, and biomass are massively ecoinvasive.
The North American continent is awash in fossil fuel reserves,
arguably the largest reserves in the world. Under such circumstances, it is likely its inhabitants will continue to oxidize as
many carbon atoms as possible.
So, when will the sun finally rise on large-scale power applications of superconductivity?
Dr. Paul M. Grant (w2agz@w2agz.com), an IBM research
staff member emeritus and an EPRI science fellow (retired),
held an visiting scholar appointment at Stanford University
and is currently an adjunct staff associate at the Jet Propulsion
Laboratory, Cal Tech. Portions of this editorial appeared in the
Summer 2011 issue of Cold Facts, the magazine of the Cryogenic Society of America (www.cryogenicsociety.org) and are
reproduced by permission.
www.powermag.com
POWER January 2012
Hitachi Power Systems America

AQCS
After Market
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Nuclear
SCR
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power.info@hal.hitachi.com
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Vol. 156 No.

Closing Power and

EPRIs R&D Plans

Unlike a phony cowboy who is all hat with no

circle 1 on reader service card

Established 1882 Vol. 156 No. 1

COVER STORY: 2012 INDUSTRY FORECAST

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

40 EPRI Bridges Industry R&D Gaps

50 Chinas 12th Five-Year Plan Pushes Power Industry in New Directions

Web Exclusive: U.S. Military Smart Grid Activities

January 2012 POWER

Connect with POWER

Powder river basin coal

56 PRBCUG Small Plant of the Year: Muscatine Power & Water

60 Navigant Announces Coal-Fired Generation Operational Excellence Awards

62 Real-time Proactive Safety in Construction

6 My Top 10 Predictions for 2012

8 World Energy Outlook Forecasts Great Renewables Growth

16 Level Switches Keep Electrostatic Precipitators Online

24 Green Technology = Green Jobs?

72 Upbraiding the Utilities

On the Web: International Solar Trade Dispute

POWER January 2012

TODAYS CHALLENGES CREATE

POWER ENVIRONMENTAL & INFRASTRUCTURE

Visit POWER on the web: www.powermag.com

EDITORIAL & PRODUCTION

powermag@halldata.com, 800-542-2823 or 847-763-9509

ACCESS INTELLIGENCE, LLC

POWER (ISSN 0032-5929) is published monthly by Access

POWER January 2012

Yarway. Over 100 years experience,

My Top 10 Predictions for 2012

he New Year will be pivotal for the

power system reliability depending on the

record number of projects before December

Expect additional bankruptcies by companies

sidies and accept the fact that Congress will

POWER January 2012

Plant Reliability: EtaPRO APR

detects problems others dont

Offices in: North America Latin America Europe Asia

World Energy Outlook Forecasts Great

1. Policies prime renewable pump. According the Interna-

Existing 2010 capacity

Global subsidies to renewables-based

Billion dollars (2010)

just 3% between 2009 and 2035. Chinas share of coal power is

2007 2008 2009 2010

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

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especially in the New Policies Scenario, where they triple, from

Australia Levies Landmark Carbon Tax

NRC to Implement Lessons Learned

After more than a decade debating whether to pass a carbon-limiting