Industry analysis #5 2016

Mobile data 1H 2016

Unlimited pushes data usage to

new heights
This is tefficients 14th public analysis on the development
and drivers of mobile data usage.
The usage continued to grow in 2016, but the growth
rates varied much between markets. Singapore, Japan,
Hong Kong and Hungary grew the slowest whereas
Lithuania, Turkey, Austria and Korea grew the fastest.
In Lithuania, Austria and Korea, premium unlimited plans
were gradually introduced in 2014 and 2015 and the
effect on data usage has been similar to what our
previous analyses identified for Finland and Latvia.
The data usage top list for January-September 2016 is
dominated by operators that offer unlimited: The world
leader DNA from Finland had an average usage per SIM of
9.9 GB per month.
High penetration of data-only SIMs explains high data
usage to a greater extent than 4G LTE.
But the effective revenue per GB matters most: In Finland,
average usage was 13x that of the Netherlands where
operators effectively charged 14x more for a gigabyte
than in Finland. Other expensive mobile data countries
are Canada, Belgium, Germany and Czech Republic.

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

The average Finnish SIM used more than 7 GB per month in 1H 2016
Figure 1 shows the development of mobile data usage for 32 countries where regulators1 report mobile data
traffic.
The top countries of the world based on 1H 2016 stats were Finland, Korea, Sweden, Austria and
Denmark (which hides Austria in Figure 1). Based on full year 2015 stats, Latvia, USA and Estonia would
most likely also be top-ranked, but regulators in these countries dont report half-yearly stats.

Gbytes per any SIM per month

1)
2)
3)
4)

Excl M2M
Q2 2016
Traffic for last month each quarter
June 2016

6
5

4
AT

3
2
1

0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

1H 2016

FI

LV

KR

1) SE

US

AT

DK

IS

EE

IE

3) JP

2) AU

NO

SG

CH

HK

CA

PL

4) UK

LT

TR

HU

IT

FR

ES

DE

PT

NL

RO

CZ

BE

GR

Figure 1. Development of mobile data usage per any SIM per country

With 7.2 GB per month per any SIM, Finland continued to lead the world in usage. 47% of all
Finnish SIMs (incl. M2M) had unlimited data volume in June 2016: Monetisation in Finland is
effectively based on throughput tiers and not on volume.

Exception: USA, where data is from industry body CTIA

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

Korea passed Sweden in 2016 and is, based on available statistics for the first half, number two in the
world with 3.8 GB per SIM and month. The Korean operators started to introduce premium unlimited plans
in April 2014, see Figure 2.

200000

150000

100000

Premium "unlimited" 4G
plans introduced

50000

Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16

Mobile data traffic per month [TB]

250000

2G

3G

4G

Auto-offloaded to Wi-Fi

Figure 2. Development of mobile data traffic in South Korea before and after the introduction of unlimited plans

Albeit premium, these unlimited plans arent without limits: Once the full-speed data allowance has been
consumed, the throughput is throttled to a few Mbit/s (exact speed depends on plan). Even with this
throttling, the effect on the mobile data traffic in Korea was immediately visible, see the arrow in Figure 2.
The mobile data traffic growth accelerated immediately after the introduction of these unlimited plans.
Another fast-moving country is fourth-ranked Austria. Usage
grew 56% from full year 2015 to the first half of 2016. The three
operators A1, T-Mobile and 3 (see picture to the right) are now all
offering unlimited data volume where the price depends on the
throughput tier in combination with home modems.
In contrast to Korea, where the focus in on handset data, the
Austrian use case is fixed network substitution. Noticeably,
the Austrian incumbent, A1, is also offering this.

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

Also fifth-ranked Denmark is fast-moving. The usage per SIM grew 50% from
full year 2015 to first half 2016 with 4G LTE taking the lions share well come
back to that. Denmark doesnt have plans with unlimited data volumes, but the
data buckets are generally very generous in Denmark, especially considering
Denmarks low prices. 99 DKK (13 EUR) is e.g. giving 15 GB of data to
smartphone customers of 3s sub-brand Oister.
A third example of the
unlimited mobile data
volume trend is Lithuania.
Although not as highly
ranked as Finland, Korea
and Austria, the country had
an impressive growth in the
average data usage of 66%
between full year 2015 and
the first half of 2016; the
highest of all countries.
The picture to the left
shows the example of Bite:
For 26.85 EUR, a postpaid
customer can get unlimited data volume limited to the handset. The two capped plans shown (15 and 7
GB) are, however, to some extent also unlimited, though: Customers will get a number of services, including
Facebook, zero-rated for a period of six months.
As addressed in the 2015 version of this analysis, reasonabley priced plans with unlimited data volume have
also affected the mobile data usage in countries like Latvia, Switzerland, USA and the UK.
The countries with the lowest mobile data usage are Greece, Belgium, Czech Republic, Romania, the
Netherlands , Portugal and Germany see the zoom-in in Figure 3. With the exception of Portugal and
the Netherlands, no 2016 stats exist for these countries, but it can be safely assumed that they remain in
the backwaters of Europe. Later in this analysis we will show that the high operator revenue per gigabyte
plays an important role in explaining this at least in Belgium, Czech Republic, the Netherlands and
Germany.

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

1,2
1)
2)
3)
4)

Gbytes per any SIM per month

1,0

Excl M2M
Q2 2016
Traffic for last month each quarter
June 2016

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0,0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

1H 2016

FI

LV

KR

1) SE

US

AT

DK

IS

EE

IE

3) JP

2) AU

NO

SG

CH

HK

CA

PL

4) UK

LT

TR

HU

IT

FR

ES

DE

PT

NL

RO

CZ

BE

GR

Figure 3. Development of mobile data usage per any SIM per country zoom-in on lowest usage countries

Even though usage levels are low, Figure 3 shows that there is growth in mobile data usage also in the
lower usage countries. Countries like Lithuania, Turkey and France show an increasing appetite for
mobile data.
But Figure 4 shows that the growth rates in many cases arent sufficient to close the gap on higher data
usage countries.

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

1)
2)
3)
4)

Gbytes per per SIM and month

Excl M2M
Q2 2016
Traffic for last month each quarter
June 2016

FI

6
5

Mobile data usage grew faster

than what can be expected

Expectation

KR
1) SE

DK

3
IS

3) JP

2
HK

1
0

HU
Mobile data usage grew slower
than what can be expected

0%

IE

2) AU

NO

SG

AT

10%

PT

NL

ES

4) UK

FR

TR

LT

20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Development in Gbytes per any SIM per month FY15-1H16

70%

Figure 4. Mobile data usage vs. its development from full year 2015

Hungary and Portugal alongside Singapore and Hong Kong all demonstrated low growth rates in 1H
2016 even though data usage was low. In contrast, highest usage countries Finland and Korea had high
usage growth, leaving the lower usage countries yet more behind.
In previous analyses we have explained some of the low usage/low growth positions with public
Wi-Fi. Its no longer obvious that Wi-Fi has that much of an impact. Countries where operators
have embraced Wi-Fi can be found anywhere in Figure 4. The Korean operators are e.g. some of the most
profound users of operator Wi-Fi, each having built hundred of thousands public Wi-Fi hotspots. The black
area of Figure 2 is also showing that the absolute level of mobile traffic that is auto-offloaded to Wi-Fi by the
operators is increasing. In spite of currently auto-offloading as much mobile data to Wi-Fi as the whole
mobile traffic of Norway (about 12000 TB per month), Figure 4 shows that Korea has a very fast growth in
mobile data usage.
Before finding other explanations, we will take a closer look at the data usage of individual operators.

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

The customers of DNA top the world; used 10 GB per month

10

*) Based on regulator reported data

**) Per smartphone

9.9

9
8.6

7.8

7
6
5
4
3
2 GB per month

2
1
0

0.5 GB per month

DNA, FI
Elisa, FI
3, AT
*3, DK (1H)
*Telenor, SE (1H)
LG Uplus, KR (Q2)
3, UK (June)
*3, SE (1H)
SK Telecom, KR
*Telia, DK (1H)
3 Europe, Group (1H)
*Tele2, SE (1H)
**Verizon, US (Apr)
**Singtel, SG (Apr-Sep)
M1, SG (Apr-Sep)
Play, PL
*Telia, NO (1H)
*TDC, DK (1H)
*Telenor, DK (1H)
Swisscom, CH
*Telia, SE (1H)
Bouygues, FR
eir Meteor, IE
MegaFon, RU
3, HK (per active 3G/4G 1H)
KPN, NL (postpaid consumer retail)
Vodafone, TR
Vodafone, ES
VimpelCom, RU
**T-Mobile, PL
*Telenor, NO (1H)
Wind, IT
Vodafone, PT
**NOS, PT
T-Mobile, NL
Vodafone, IT
Orange, PL
Movistar, ES
Telekom, DE (B2C T-branded)
Proximus, BE
Vodafone, UK
O2, UK
Vodafone, DE
TIM, IT
Vodafone, NL
Orange, BE+LU (excl. M2M & MVNO)
Vodafone, RO
O2, DE
China Mobile, CN (1H)
China Telecom, CN
T-Mobile, CZ
Vodafone, Group
China Unicom, CN (1H)
Reliance Rcom, IN
Vodafone, EG
Vodafone, GR
Airtel, IN
Idea, IN
Vodafone, IN

Gbyte per any SIM per month Jan-Sep 2016

Our analysis showed that Finland is the country with the highest average mobile data usage per any SIM.
Figure 5 ranks the reporting or reported operators of the world. To be as updated as possible, the usage is
in most cases shown for the nine month period January-September 2016. Since not all operators or
regulators report quarterly, the period can occasionally be shorter.

Figure 5. Mobile data usage per any SIM and month for reporting operators (or where the regulator reports it)

Figure 5 shows three tiers:

>2 GB per SIM and month

>0,5 GB per SIM and month
<0,5 GB per SIM and month

In the red tier, we find operators in maturing markets like India, Egypt and China alongside a few
European laggards in Greece, Czech Republic and Germany.

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

In the other end of the scale in the green tier we find the
operators who have the most data happy customers of the
world:
With 9.9 GB per any SIM and month during the
January-September period, DNA was the reporting
operator with the highest mobile data usage in the world.
Postpaid unlimited data plans where price is determined by
the chosen speed tier (e.g. up to 21, 50 or 300 Mbit/s)
dominate DNAs consumer offer. DNA won also our 2015 analysis, but has in 2016 increased the distance to
the world number 2:
DNAs competitor Elisa had an average monthly usage per SIM of 8.6 GB for the first nine
months of 2016. Like DNA, Elisas consumer offer is dominated by postpaid unlimited data plans
where the up to speed determines the price. Both DNA and Elisa allow customers to tether their auxiliary
devices to the smartphone subscription.
3 Austria emerges as the #3 of the world of reporting operators. During the January-September
period, 3s average SIM consumed 7.8 GB per month. As already mentioned, 3 (and its competitors)
provide Austria with fixed line substituting modems. Also the smartphone plans of 3 come with high data
allowances, though albeit not unlimited.
The remaining seven positions of the top ten are held by other operators offering unlimited data: LG Uplus,
3 UK, SK Telecom and half of the Danish and Swedish operators: 3 Denmark, Telenor Sweden, 3
Sweden and Telia Denmark.

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

Is data-only important for usage?

The bigger the screen, the higher the data consumption right? Figure 6 gives strong support for this.
Generally speaking, countries with a high penetration of data-only SIMs sitting in e.g. tablets, PCs,
modems have much higher data usage than countries with a low data-only penetration. With 19.3% of
SIMs being data-only, Finland has the highest data usage in the world. Australia is, however, at 18.5%
with just 1.7 GB per SIM and month, but seems to be an exception.

1H 2016
FY 2015

Gbytes per any SIM and month

FI

1) Excl M2M
2) Q2 2016
4) June 2016

6
5
R = 0,5673

4
1) SE

DK
IE

AT

IS
US

EE

2) AU

NO

TR

ES
PT

0
0%

FR
NL
BE

4) UK

LT

PL

CZ

5%
10%
15%
Data-only penetration of SIM base

20%

Figure 6. Mobile data usage vs. data-only penetration

If looking at the bottom-left corner we note that countries without a developed data-only market Turkey,
Spain, Portugal, France, the Netherlands and Belgium all experience average usage below 1 GB per
month. To grow, it would make sense for someone in these markets to start addressing and monetise the
data-only segment.

tefficient AB

www.tefficient.com

19 December 2016

Is 4G LTE adoption important for usage?

Three things are required to be an active 4G LTE customer:
1. A 4G LTE capable device
2. A subscription that supports 4G LTE
3. 4G LTE coverage
Maybe because of this complexity, few regulators report 4G LTE adoption. An attempt to correlate it with
data usage is still done in Figure 7 below.

4,0
KR
LV

3,5

Gbytes per any SIM and month

1) SE
AT

3,0
2,5

R = 0,257

IS

IE

2) JP

2,0
EE

1,5
SG

HK
LT

1,0

FR

1H 2016

0,5

FY 2015

DE
BE

1) Excl M2M
2) Traffic for last month each quarter

0,0
0%

20%
40%
60%
4G LTE adoption of SIM base

80%

Figure 7. Mobile data usage vs. 4G LTE adoption

The R2 value is compared to the data-only graph much lower. Korea is an example of that high 4G LTE
adoption drives high data usage, but Latvia had an almost as high data usage in 2015 with a much lower 4G
LTE adoption.
Figure 8 shows the few countries that currently break out the 4G LTE traffic in their reporting:

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

10

100%

4G LTE share of traffic/SIM base 1H 2016

99%

90%
88%

80%
70%

74%

73%

68%

60%

67%
60%

50%
47%

40%

45%

30%

34%

20%
10%

4G LTE share of data traffic

Ireland

UK (June)

Sweden

Netherlands

Denmark

Turkey (Q2)

South Korea

0%

4G LTE adoption of SIM base

Figure 8. 4G LTE share of traffic where reported. 4G LTE share of SIM as comparison where available.

The sample is small, but suggests that 4G LTE SIMs in general carry a disproportionately high share of the
data traffic:

In Korea a 4G LTE SIM generated 1.3x the traffic of any SIM

In Sweden 1.4x
In Ireland 1.3x

That factor isnt much if compared to data-only, though: In Sweden a data-only SIM
generated 3.3x the traffic of any SIM, in Iceland 5.5x, in Portugal 16.8x but in
France just 1.2x.
Figure 7 might still suggest that 4G LTE adoption too is a factor that explains
data usage. But the correlation is weak. Note that Finland is missing out in Figure 7
(since 4G LTE SIMs arent reported). We believe that the 4G LTE adoption in
Finland isnt above 40%. Having also Finland (with 7 GB per month) in the graph
would make the correlation yet weaker.

tefficient AB

www.tefficient.com

Data-only adoption
is a far more
important driver of
high data usage
than 4G LTE
adoption

19 December 2016

11

Effective revenue per Mbyte vs. usage

Now to the chart which tends to trigger the interest of policy makers. Figure 9 plots the total mobile service
revenue per gigabyte2 against the average mobile data usage per country.

1H 2016

Gbytes per any SIM and month

FY 2015

FI

1)
2)
3)
4)

Excl M2M
Q2 2016
Traffic for last month each quarter
June 2016

6
20 EUR ARPU line

5
4

KR

LV
1) SE

AT
DK

IS

IE

EE

3) JP

US

2) AU
NO
LT
PL

SG

HK
4) UK
TR
FR
PT

ES

HU

CH

CA

NL

IT

CZ

0
0

10

15
20
25
30
35
Total mobile service revenue per Gbyte [EUR]

DE
BE

40

45

50

Figure 9. Comparing total mobile service revenue per Gbyte with mobile data usage

The amber line shows where 20 EUR of ARPU is earned. Countries below it had an ARPU lower than 20
EUR; countries above an ARPU higher than 20 EUR. USA had the highest ARPU (39 EUR in 2015) and
Lithuania the lowest (6 EUR, 1H 2016).
If we just compare the countries for which 1H 2016 data is available, the Netherlands had the highest
effective revenue per Gbyte 14x higher than the country with the lowest revenue Finland. Based on
2015 data, also Canada, Belgium, Germany and Czech Republic had high effective revenue per Gbyte.
Looking at Figure 9 we can conclude as in all our previous analyses on this topic that the key explanation
for high mobile data usage is low effective revenue per Mbyte: Bigger data buckets lead to lower
revenue per Gbyte which increases usage. At least when customers can use those big buckets also
on data-only devices; see Figure 6.
2

Attributing zero value to voice and messaging which is also how most mature operators have priced service bundles when voice and
messaging are unlimited, but data capped on volume

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19 December 2016

12

The worlds largest mobile data carriers

Figure 5 concluded that DNA of Finland has the customers with the highest average data usage of the world
9.9 GB per month. But there are operators with significantly larger customer bases than DNA. Figure 10
ranks the reporting or reported operators of the world according to the total traffic carried between January
and September 20163.

3500

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)

Pbyte Jan-Sep 2016

3000

Handset data only

1H prorated to 9m
April prorated to 9m
Q2 proprated to 9m
June prorated to 9m
If B2C T-branded usage applied to whole base

2500
2000
1500
1000

500

1) 2) China Mobile, CN
3) Verizon, US
SK Telecom, KR
MegaFon, RU
1) 2) China Unicom, CN
1) China Telecom, CN
VimpelCom, RU
4) LG Uplus, KR
Airtel, IN
5) 3, UK
1) MTS, RU
Play, PL
Elisa, FI
Reliance Rcom, IN
6) Telekom, DE
Vodafone, IN
Idea, IN
Vivo, BR
3, AT
DNA, FI
Vodafone, TR
Vodafone, IT
Wind, IT
Vodafone, DE
O2, DE
TIM, IT
Bouygues, FR
O2, UK
Vodafone, ES
Movistar, ES
Orange, PL
Vodafone, UK
2) Telenor, SE
Swisscom, CH
2) Tele2, SE
Vodafone, EG
2) 3, SE
Movistar, CL
2) Telia, SE

Figure 10. Mobile data traffic for reporting operators (or where the regulator reports it)

It shouldnt surprise anybody that it is China Mobile with 840 million mobile subscriptions that leads
the world when it comes to petabytes carried. Even though China Mobile only reports mobile data traffic
originating from handsets, it is by far the largest data carrier even though Figure 5 showed that China
Mobiles average usage per SIM was lower than 0.5 GB per month.
Based on a usage figure given for April, Verizon, the US market leader, comes in as number two of
reporting or reported operators. The South Korean market leader, SK Telecom, is number 3.

If only a shorter period is reported: Prorated to nine months. Operators with less than 90 Petabyte are not shown in the graph to
improve readability.

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19 December 2016

13

Russian operators are also ranked high alongside other Chinese, Korean and the largest Indian operator,
Airtel.
The operator with the largest customer base in Europe O2 Germany with 44 million subscriptions is only
ranked as number 25, behind much smaller European operators like 3 UK (#10), Play Poland (#12), Elisa
Finland (#13), 3 Austria (#19) and DNA Finland (#20).

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

14

Conclusion
Mobile data usage is still growing in all of the countries covered by this analysis. One could expect
that the fastest growth relative to the usage level would be seen in low usage countries. On
the contrary, our analysis finds that growth is faster in higher usage countries where operators
have introduced unlimited (or very generous) mobile data propositions.
Even though the truly unlimited plan doesnt exist operators limit throughput, tethering, video
resolution, time or even volume the notion of unlimited is obviously sufficient for mobile users
to change gear when it comes to data consumption. The Korean case is a good example: A high
mobile data usage country that started to use even more data when operators introduced
premium-priced plans with unlimited data volume even though throttled to a few Mbit/s after the
cap. Noticeably this benefitted operator Wi-Fi as well: The mobile data that is auto-offloaded to
Wi-Fi by the Korean operators has never been larger.
Finland where half of all SIMs have unlimited data continues
to lead the world in mobile data usage. The Finnish operator DNA
is the operator in the world with the highest average usage 9.9
GB per month.
Our usage vs. revenue per Gbyte chart shows a significant spread
in the revenue operators effectively earn per Gbyte. The most
expensive mobile data countries are Canada, Belgium,
Germany, Czech Republic and the Netherlands and as a
consequence mobile users in these countries are using very little
mobile data. The average consumption in Finland is 13x that of
the Netherlands.
The revenue per Gbyte is lowest in Finland, Latvia, Denmark,
Austria, Estonia, Lithuania and Sweden. Our analysis shows
that low revenue per Gbyte is the primary driver for high mobile
data usage. A high adoption of data-only SIMs is another driver
whereas 4G LTE adoption only has a weak correlation with data usage.
It is tempting for operators to make sure that every Gbyte costs and brings in good margin by
keeping bucket sizes down and prices up. This leads to a downwards spiral where operators
alienate customers, though to find that their mobile behaviour becomes more and more Wi-Fi
centric. Since customer loyalty is what matters most to business results today and the churn risk
is elevated every time a customer runs out of data the operators in the countries with high
revenue per Gbyte need to become more generous with mobile data.
Is mobile data seen as too expensive to produce in significant volumes? Then incorporate operator
Wi-Fi as an integral, but not necessarily free, element in every mobile data plan.

tefficient AB

www.tefficient.com

19 December 2016

15

International telco competitiveness specialist providing operators and suppliers with analysis, benchmarks and go-tomarket preparation. Expertise in quad-play, data monetisation, customer loyalty, Nonstop Retention, mobile video, WiFi business models and high margin equipment sales.
www.tefficient.com

tefficient AB

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19 December 2016

16