Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
(1)
(2)
Sursa:JensUlbrich,DeutscheBundesbank,2013
Sustenabilitateafinantelorpublice garantiadeultimrangastabilitatiifinanciare
Principalelecanaledetransmisieariscurilordelalasectorulfinanciarlasectorul
guvernamental:
1.Suportguvernamentalpentrusectorulfinanciarincazdenevoie(capitalizare,garantii)
careconducelacrestereadatorieipublice
2.Dezintermediere amplificarecesiunea,reduceveniturilebugetaresicrestecheltuielile
bugetare
Principalelecanaledetransmisiearisculuisuverancatresectorulfinanciar:
1.cresterearisculuialtoractivedineconomie
2.pierderidinportofoliiledetitluridestatdetinutedesectorulfinanciar
3.crestereacosturilordefinantarepentrusectorulfinanciar
Note:Systemicbankingcrisesaredefinedascaseswhereatleastthreeofthelistedinterventionstookplace,whereas
borderlinecasesarethosethatalmostmetthedefinitionofasystemiccrisis.
45
Datoriapublica(%dinPIB)
Platilededobanzi(%dinPIB,scaladindreapta)
40
37.3 38.0
5.0
4.4
30
29.9
4.0
3.9
25.7
24.8
3.4
22.4
21.6
25
16.7
12
23.2
21.3
2.5
1.8
10.6
1.6
10
6.6
1.7 1.7
13.2
12.3 12.7
1.6 1.6 1.6
1.5 1.5 1.6
1.6
1.4
1.3
0.8 0.7 0.7
2 .7
1 .5
0 .7
1 .8
0 .8
1 .6
0 .3
1 .5
0 .3
1 .6
6
9 .2
9 .2
8 .9
15.7
14.9
15
18.6
20
15
34.2
35
7 .3
6 .5
0
1
2011
2012
2013
2014E 2015E
Sursa:Eurostat,AMECO
Romania:Exposureofcreditinstitutionstodomestic
generalgovernment(%oftotalgrossassets)
25
24
Exposureofcreditinstitutionstodomesticgeneral
government(%oftotalgrossassets)
21
20
18
15
15
12
10
9
6
3
0
Nov07
Nov08
Exposureinloans
Nov09
Nov10
Nov11
Nov12
Exposureindebtsecurities
Nov13
Nov14
UK
DK
SE
LV
EE
FI
GR
MT
IE
CY
FR
LU
NL
BG
AT
DE
PT
EA18
LT
BE
ES
CZ
HU
PL
IT
HR
SK
SI
RO
0
Nov06
Totalexposure
Exposureinloans
Exposureindebtsecurities
Sursa:Eurostat,ECB
100
90
90
Foreign creditors
Central bank
Non-financial sector
Non-financial sector
Sursa:Eurostat,ECB
SE
ES
LV
PL
IT
FR
BE
HU
EU28
NL
EA18
HR
PT
LT
CY
BG
RO
SI
FI
SK
FI
LV
LT
PT
EE
SI
SK
0
CY
10
HU
10
EU28
20
FR
20
RO
30
NL
30
PL
40
EA18
40
BE
50
BG
50
HR
60
ES
60
IT
70
SE
70
EE
80
80
Central bank
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Companii
Gospodriile populaiei
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
60
Administraia public
Sursa:BNR
Popula tie
Rezerve tehnice Fonduri de Fonduri de Detineri de titluri
administrare de stat
pentru asigurari pensii
private
a activelor
de viata
5.9
14.8
15.0
3.2
Societati
asigurare
70.4
de Fonduri de Fonduri de
pensii
administrare
a activelor
Detineri de titluri de stat
5.4
9.9
7.3
93
3.2
45
40
4 0 .0
35
3 4 .1
60
50
40
30
30
25
20
2 0 .6
20
15
10
0
10
CZ PL SK HU
CEE
Pola nd
H unga ry
N ov -1 4
N ov -1 3
N ov -1 2
N ov -1 1
N ov -1 0
EE LV LT
BG RO HR
Ba ltic
SEE
Rom a nia
Source:MinistryofPublicFinance,Eurostat,WorldBank
(2)Bugetul generatorsauabsorbantalsocurilor?
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014e
2015f
2016f
-10
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014e
2015f
2016f
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Nota:Zonele hasurate desemneaza perioade incareoutputgapul este pozitiv (economia creste peste potential)
Sursa:AMECO.
2008
1996
2004
1999
2009 2003
2013 2014e
2001
1997 2002
2000
politicaprociclica
politicaanticiclica
2006
2007
1
0
2005
-1
2011
1998
2012
-2
2010
-3
politicaprociclica
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
politicaanticiclica
-1
-4
8
10
Venituri
Cheltuieli (-)
Estonia
Lituania
Letonia
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovacia
Rep. Ceha
Malta
Polonia
Cipru
Slovenia
Portugalia
Ungaria
Luxemburg
Grecia
Spania
Marea Britanie
Austria
Irland
Finlanda
Franta
Italia
Belgia
Germania
0.329
Olanda
Suedia
Danemarca
0.8
0.7 0.608
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
Total
55
DK
FR
SE
53
FI
HU AT
51
49
GR
47
PTSI
UK
45
BE
IT
NL
DE
CZ PLMT CY
43
LU ES
41
39
37
35
0.28
IE
LVBGSK
EE
RO
LT
0.33
0.38
0.43
0.48
0.53
Sursa:AMECO,Comisia Europeana,2013
0.58
0.63
200
GR
180
160
IT
PT
140
IE
120
CY
100
HU
SI
80
60
40
RO
PL
LV
BG
BE
UK
DE AT
EU 28
NL
FI
DK
CZ
SE
EE
20
0
40.00
FR
MT
SK
LT
ES
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Feb10
Feb11
Feb12
Feb13
Romania
Feb14
Feb15
Bulgaria
Publicbudget deficit(%ofGDP)
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Bulgaria
Romania
Sursa:Datastream,EUROSTAT
2014
Concluzii