Taiwans Legislative Elections January 2008 Djvu

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<h1>
Full text of "<a href="/details/370853-taiwans-legislative-elections-jan
uary-2008">Taiwan s Legislative Elections, January 2008: Implications for U.S. Polic
y</a>"
</h1>
<h2 class="pull-right">
<small><a href="/details/370853-taiwans-legislative-elections-january-20
08">See other formats</a></small>
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<pre>
Order Code RS22791

January 22, 2008
CRS Report for Congress
Taiwan's Legislative Elections, January 2008:

Implications for U.S. Policy
Kerry Dumbaugh
Specialist in Asian Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
Summary
On January 12, 2008, Taiwan's ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP), suffered a crushing defeat in elections for the Legislative Yuan, the nat
ional
legislature. The DPP won only 27 seats in the new 113-member body, while the
opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) gained a hefty majority with 81 seats. Five
additional seats went to independent and smaller party candidates who are expect
ed to
side often with KMT positions. The results appear to be a repudiation of DPP lea
der
and Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian' s emphasis of a radical pro-independence ag
enda
at the expense of domestic economic issues. Attention in Taiwan now is on the
upcoming presidential contest on March 22, 2008, pitting the leading DPP candida
te
Frank Hsieh against the leading KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou.
This report will not be updated.
Taiwan's January 12, 2008 legislative elections were the first held under new
electoral rules adopted in 2005 under an amendment to the Republic of China's
(Taiwan's) constitution. Under the old electoral rules, voters had only one ball
ot to cast
in multi-member districts where as many as 12 candidates competed against one an
other,
even if they were from the same party. This system functioned at a cost to party
discipline
and was thought to encourage radicalism, with candidates able to be elected with
as little
as five percent of the vote in a given district. The 2005 electoral changes halv
ed the size
of the legislature to 1 13 members from its former size of 225 and increased the
term of
office from three years to four. The new rules also instituted a new single-memb
er district
system employing two ballots for voters, similar to systems used in Germany and
Japan:
one to be cast for a candidate and one to be cast for a political party.
As expected, the new system has appeared to favor larger, well- organized partie
s and
to put smaller parties and fringe elements at a disadvantage. In the previous le
gislature,
the opposition KMT had held a bare majority by joining with a partner, the Peopl
e First
Party (PFP), in a coalition that became known as the "Pan-Blue Coalition," while
the DPP
partnered with the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) in the "Pan-Green Coalition" of
nearly
equal strength. But in the January 12 th vote, the KMT emerged with a solid cont
rolling
Congressional Research Service W' The Library of Congress

Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress
CRS-2
majority of 81 seats against the ruling DPP's anemic win of 27 seats. The former
coalition partner parties, the PFP and TSU, were effectively wiped out under the
new
electoral rules, suggesting the end, at least temporarily, of Pan-Blue/Pan-Green
coalition
politics . Five seats were gained by independent and smaller party candidates, a
ll of whom
are expected to side with KMT positions. While a KMT legislative victory was exp
ected
under the new electoral rules, the wide margin surprised most analysts and dealt
a serious
blow to DPP aspirations to be victorious in the March 22, 2008 presidential elec
tion.
President Chen Shui-bian stepped down as head of the DPP party, saying he took f
ull
responsibility for his party's loss. He is term- limited as Taiwan's president a
nd will be
stepping down in May 2008.
Adding to the DPP' s misfortune, voters also failed to pass two referendum measu
res
one (a DPP measure) asking whether the government should attempt to seize assets t
he
KMT is alleged to have embezzled during its unbroken rule on the island from 194
92000, and one (a KMT measure) asking whether the legislature should be given pow
er to
investigate official corruption. The two referenda, which needed to reach a thre
shold of
50% of the participating electorate for passage, were seen as litmus tests for a
more
controversial referendum, proposed by President Chen for the upcoming March 22
presidential election, asking whether Taiwan should apply to the United Nations
for full
membership under the name "Taiwan" rather than its formal name of the Republic o
f
China. 1 Beijing considers the U.N. referendum to be tantamount to a public poll
on
Taiwan independence
a prospect China has vowed to prevent by force if necessary.
The United States has called Taiwan's U.N. proposal "provocative."
The KMT historically is a party of mainlanders who fled to Taiwan from mainland
China in 1949. It is politically conservative and strongly anti-communist. Altho
ugh it is
credited with engineering Taiwan's vibrant economic growth and transformation du
ring
its more than 50-year rule on the island, the KMT' s inability to offer a clear
and creative
vision for Taiwan's future ultimately made it vulnerable to the pro-independence
DPP
party, which was able to elect its candidate, Chen Shui-bian, to the presidency
in elections
in 2000. 2 Since then, the KMT has portrayed itself as a more responsible stewar
d than the
DPP for Taiwan's future. It has soundly criticized the DPP's posture toward Beij
ing as
unnecessarily confrontational and has promised to replace it with a policy of en
gagement
and cooperation. The party also has gotten political mileage out of portraying P
resident
Chen as insufficiently attentive to the needs of Taiwan's economy and business
community as in the economic disadvantages Taiwan business interests continue to
face due to Taiwan's restrictions on contacts with mainland China. 3
Implications for the March 2008 Presidential Election. The KMT's
overwhelming victory in the legislative elections suggests that the party is now
well
placed to win the presidency back from the DPP in the presidential election sche
duled for
March 22, 2008. A KMT victory in March would leave both Taiwan' s legislature an
d the
1 The U.N. referendum expected to be voted on in March also has to meet the 50%
threshold for
passage a bar widely seen as out of reach for controversial measures.
2 The traditional KMT policy held that there was only one China, that Taiwan was
part of China,
and that one day Taiwan would re -take the mainland and China would be reunified
.
3 See CRS Report RL33510, Taiwan: Recent Developments and U.S. Policy Choices, b
y Kerry
Dumbaugh.
CRS-3
executive in the hands of one party, ending the legislative-executive split in T
aiwan's
government that has created political gridlock throughout the Chen Administratio
n.
Optimists suggest that this would lead to the kind of policy achievements that h
ave eluded
President Chen. More pessimistic observers allege that this development could re
turn
Taiwan to a quasi one-party state, leaving the DPP too weakened to function as t
he kind
of robust opposition voice that a vibrant democracy requires.
Others have warned against the temptation to see a "geo-strategic outcome" in wh
at
they say is the very local and tactical nature of Taiwan's legislative elections
. 4 They say
that the island-wide contest that will elect Taiwan' s next president will be a
very different
process and that the electorate may seek to balance the overwhelming KMT legisla
tive
victory by seeking to hand the presidency to the DPP. Still, even if the DPP is
the
winning party in March's presidential election and divided government continues,
the
KMT' s substantial legislative margin
enough to veto legislative proposals or reca
ll the
president would appear to put the KMT in the driver's seat of Taiwan policy.
Implications for the United States
While carefully stating they have no preferences in Taiwan' s political races, o
fficials
in the Bush Administration have been vexed by President Chen Shui-bian' s unpred
ictable
political style, his confrontational tactics with the People' s Republic of Chin
a (PRC), and
by the difficulty of getting substantive action out of Taiwan's former grid-lock
ed
legislature. As a result, U.S. policy may seem to be well-served by any developm
ents that
could tend to calm Taiwan's political waters and facilitate a mature policy disc
ourse.
Such developments would appear to include a more effective legislative process.
But more skeptical observers point out that while the KMT's new legislative supe
rmajority will give it a stronger voice, Taiwan's grid-locked legislature also ha
d a KMT
coalition majority. Mere numbers, according to this view, do not necessarily tra
nslate into
compromise, political unity, or an active policy agenda. Even while the DPP's ne
w
chairman, Frank Hsieh, has promised to pursue a less confrontational approach to
ward
China, if the DPP is victorious in the March presidential election it is likely
to continue
to embrace the pro-independence views that its radical base supports. Therefore,
confrontational politics and stalemate still could continue in the event of a DP
P victory
in March's presidential contest.
Others have suggested that there may be different potential complications should
the
KMT win the presidency in March 2008 and gain full control of the Taiwan governm
ent.
They point out that the KMT has long pledged to improve Taiwan's relations with
the
PRC, supporting closer cultural and economic ties, and that a KMT-dominated
government is thought to be welcomed by Chinese leaders in Beijing. 5 While any
improvements in cross-strait relations are likely to support short-term U.S. goa
ls, some
4 Yates, Steve, comments during a conference at the Heritage Foundation on "Taiw

an's
Parliamentary Elections: Who Won, Who Lost, and What it Means," January 15, 2008
.
5 Lague, David, "Taiwan election may ease tensions with China," The New York Tim
es, January
14, 2008.
CRS-4
hold that the United States over the longer term will not benefit from a Taiwan
whose
economic interests and cultural identity are increasingly intertwined with the P
RC. 6
6 John Tkacik, of the Heritage Foundation, is one proponent of this view.
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CRS Report for Congress

Taiwan's Legislative Elections, January 2008:

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executive in the hands of one party, ending the legislative-executive split in T

4 Yates, Steve, comments during a conference at the Heritage Foundation on "Taiw

6 John Tkacik, of the Heritage Foundation, is one proponent of this view.

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