Monthly

Economic Report

Financial Forecast & Snapshot for Philadelphia and the Region

The City Controllers monthly report

includes an Economic Snapshot and
Forecast that assists key decision
makers in understanding and
anticipating local and national economic
trends. The report includes tax revenue
updates, the latest shifts in the Citys
real estate market and other local,
essential statistics.

Key Indicators

6%
28%
13,700

increase in yearly
Wage/NPT/Earnings revenues
over FY16

increase in
monthly home
sales compared
to last November

increase in
non-farm jobs
in Philadelphia
compared to last
year

November 2017

City Tax Revenues

Tax revenues (City &
PICA)
for
November
totaled more than $201.2
million, which is a six percent
decrease compared to last
November. A breakdown of
the total revenues included
almost $166.1 million into
the General Fund and $35.1
million as the PICA portion.

philadelphiacontroller.org

$912.9

$897.4

$1,000
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100

Projected

Actual

Monthly sales tax collections for November totaled $13.8 million, an almost five percent increase over last November. Yearly collections have
totaled almost $90 million.
Yearly General Fund tax revenues totaled almost $913 million, an increase of $21 million over last year. Additionally, it is $15.5 million, or
less than two percent, above the Citys FY2017 Cash Flow Projections
for FY2017 tax revenues.

Feature:

Monthly City & PICA Wage/Earnings/NPT (amounts in millions)

FY14

200

FY15

170

FY16
FY17

140
110
80

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

Monthly City Sales Tax Receipts (amounts in millions)

Millions of Dollars

Cigarette Tax revenues on track

to fall $26 million short of the
Citys initial revenue projections.

FY2017 Tax Revenues

Wage/Earnings/NPT (City &

PICA) collections for the month totaled $149.7 million, a six percent
decrease over the same month last year. Yearly collections for this tax
category have totaled almost $774 million, a six percent increase
for the year.

Millions of Dollars

Office of the City Controller

Alan Butkovitz, City Controller

28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8

FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

pg.1

Monthly

Economic Report

Office of the City Controller - City of Philadelphia

November 2017

employment
The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate for the City of Philadelphia declined by
seven-tenths of a percentage point over last
month. The current rate is at 6.3 percent.

Phila

Yearly Unemployment Rate (%)

MSA

U.S.

According to the Federal Reserves latest

Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey,
4
firms reported increases across several indexes
in December. This includes a 15 point increase
in the Index for Current Activity from 15.6 2
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
in November to 30.4 in the current month.
Decembers index is above the historical
average of 28.2 after holding below this average for the last year.

Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16

The Sales & Revenues Index increased from by six points and the New Orders Index increased nine points. In addition the
Diffusion Index for Full-Time Employment rose five points and the Part-Time Index increased by eight points. Both the
Full-Time and Part-Time indexes are above their historical averages of 14.2 and 14.4, respectively.
Total Non-Farm Employment (MSA includes PA-NJ-DE-MD)
November 2016
October 2016
City Total
712,700
707,900

% Chg.

0.7%

November 2015
699,000

Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof. & Business Srvs.

12,100
20,500
96,600
11,500
43,100
93,800

12,000
20,500
95,500
11,500
43,200
91,800

0.8%
0.0%
1.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
2.2%

11,700
21,000
96,800
11,900
42,800
91,900

Educ. & Health Srvs.

Leisure & Hospitality

231,900
73,000

229,300
74,700

1.1%
-2.3%

225,000
67,700

Other Services

28,100

27,400

2.6%

27,900

Government

102,100

102,000

0.1%

102,300

MSA* Total

2,919,000

2,905,000

0.5%

2,875,400

Construction

117,300

117,200

0.1%

114,400

Manufacturing
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Prof. & Business Srvs.
Educ. & Health Srvs.
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services

182,900
536,900
45,800
211,700
472,600
629,800
257,300
119,900

183,300
528,500
45,800
211,600
467,100
624,500
264,400
119,300

-0.2%
1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.8%
-2.7%
0.5%

181,200
531,600
46,500
209,200
460,200
619,400
249,700
118,300

Government

344,800

343,300

0.4%

344,900

philadelphiacontroller.org

13,700
employment
increase in
Philadelphia
compared to last
November

*PA-NJ-DE-MD

pg.2

Monthly

Economic Report

Office of the City Controller - City of Philadelphia

November 2017

residential real estate

Top Home Sales
Neighborhoods across South Philadelphia continued to lead
the way for most home sales in November. Homes sold in
19148, 19145, 19146 and 19147 totaled 245, accounting for
20 percent of the total monthly home sales.

Top Sales by Zipcode

In addition, a high number of monthly sales occurred in

neighborhoods along the river such as Fishtown and Port
Richmond, as well as sections of the Lower Northeast including Juniata, Lawncest and Holmesburg.

19111
19149 19136
19124

November 2016 Home Sales (Top 10)

ZIP Code

Sales

% of Sales from
Bank Owned

% of Sales from
Short Sales

19146

80

1.30%

0.00%

19148

64

1.60%

0.00%

19125

59

0.00%

0.00%

19134

49

2.00%

0.00%

19147

48

2.10%

0.00%

19149

45

11.10%

0.00%

19145

43

2.30%

0.00%

19111

40

12.50%

2.50%

19124

40

17.50%

2.50%

19136

39

7.70%

2.60%

19134
19125
19146 19147
19145 19148

1,207 total monthly home sales

in monthly sales
28% increase
compared to November 2015

Review of Monthly Home Sales Over Last Four Years

1,207
November 2016

942
November 2015

880

795

November 2014

November 2013

Home sale information is provided by TREND. Data reflects sales that occurred in the reported month and are not adjusted.
philadelphiacontroller.org

pg.3

Monthly

Economic Report

Office of the City Controller - City of Philadelphia

November 2017

feature: tracking the dollars

Cigarette Tax Revenues Falling Short Projections
In an effort to supplement public funding
for the School District of Philadelphia,
the Philadelphia Cigarette Tax was enacted October 2014. It imposes a $2-perpack Cigarette Tax on all cigarettes and
little cigars sold in the City of Philadelphia.
Prior to its enactment, the Citys Finance
Office projected the Cigarette Tax would
generate as much as $77.5 million in Fiscal Year 2016, and then decline to $72.7
million by Fiscal Year 2019.
At the halfway mark (July through December) of the current Fiscal Year 2017,
the Philadelphia Cigarette Tax generated
$24.8 million for the School District, an
average of $4.1 million a month. At the
current collection rate, it is projected to
generate $49.6 million for the year.
While the current year total is projected
to be about $26 million short of the Citys
initial projections, it is also $5 million
short of what the School District bud-

geted for the current fiscal

year.

Cigarette Tax Revenues - FY2015-FY2017

To reach the School Districts budgeted amount of

$54.5 million for the year,
the monthly collection
must average $5 million for
the next six months, a mark
that has not been surpassed
since the first year of the
tax.
The decline in Cigarette Tax sales has
been realized at both the state and city
level. However, when comparing sales
for the first half of the last two years,
Philadelphia has realized a much steeper
decline than the state at 23 percent and
11.5 percent, respectively.
If Philadelphias smoking patterns were
similar to the rest of the state, half of
Philadelphias decline could be a result
of people buying cigarettes outside of the
city.

-$26

Million

Estimated amount below

the Citys initial revenue
projections for the Cigarette
Tax in FY2017

Cigarette Tax Revenues Projections

FY
FY15*
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19

Original(1)
Projection
$63.4
$77.5
$75.1
$73.9
$72.7

philadelphiacontroller.org

SDP Budgeted
Projection
$49.5
$60.1
$54.5
-

Actual
$50.2
$58.7
$49.6**
-

(1) Original Projections by the Citys Finance Office

* Initial projection calculated to reflect nine months
of revenue collections, instead of a full year
** Projected yearly total based on collections through
December 2016

pg.4