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iv)
Decline
As the stage in the PLC changes, the place of production/manufacture changes around
the world. IPLC stages followed by a product are different in different countries. These
differences provide different market opportunities in different countries. Innovation first
spreads into developed countries, due to their high purchasing power. The critical success
factor is cost. So, developing countries become the manufacturing hub. So, they become the
main exporter and the developed country where the innovation began along with the other
developed countries becomes the main importer.
c) Following the Customer to other countries: Every company has some core
customers. Companies follow their core customers where ever they go in the
international arena. However Govt. forces the MNC to have local suppliers. E.g. In
the case of GE, the GE or home suppliers come along with GE to the host country
where GE is operating. The main threat is when GE finds the local suppliers to be
more cost effective than the home country suppliers and prefers working with the
former.
d) Lead Market: Companies want to be leaders in some market and just want to be
present in some other lead markets. Lead markets tell the future of the industry. If a
company wants to be global, then it needs to have a presence in the lead market to
know the product trend. A company might not make profit and lose, but will learn or
find a probable alliance, so it goes to the lead market. E.g. Perfume and fashion
market in France, car market in Japan or Germany
2)
a)
b)
c)
d)
To acquire resources:
Better quality or competitive resources
Resources available at lower cost
Resources (Technology, HR) might be scarce in the host country
Global Sourcing: Companies prefer not to depend on a few countries. They want to
spread the risk in acquiring resources.
E.g. BOSCO comes to India for Iron Ore
3) Reducing Risk: Companies try to reduce risk by spreading operations around the
world.
a) Business Cycles: There are ups and downs in the economy, but all countries are not
equally affected. If there is more spread it can average out returns.
b) Overdependence on a particular country for market and resources can be a problem,
especially during sensitive situations like war times. E.g. Gulf War. Thus for a country
it was better during that period to have other sources of oil.
c) Cross patrolling: Divert the competition posed by a company by trying to compete
with them in their home country. It is an offensive but very effective, as sometimes
offense is the best form of defense. If you follow your competitors, you may get the
second mover advantage. E.g. Caterpillar of USA expanded to UK first and then tried
to enter Japan. COMADSO of Japan was giving stiff competition. Then COMADSO
attacked Caterpillar in USA, thereby diverting Caterpillar from the Japanese market to
its home country.
d) Defensive reason: Companies want to counter advantages gained by competitors in
foreign markets that might hurt them elsewhere.
What is Globalisation?
It is the transformation of national and regional market into one common world/global market
for free flow of goods, services, capital, people and technology across nations.
What are the Drivers of Globalisation?
1) Progress i.e. increase in and expansion of technology. (Advances in communication
and transportation)
2) Liberalization of cross border trade (exports/imports), investment (FDI) policy by the
government and resource movements
3) Development of IB related services
4) Increasing consumer pressure
5) Increased global competitors and competition
6) Improving political relations among countries
7) Increased cross border cooperation. E.g. Copenhagen Summit
8) Increased availability of capital worldwide seeking optimal long term returns.
What are the disadvantages of Globalization?
1) Growing Income inequality/ Economical inequality: Small local players suffer.
Larger companies and consumers get benefitted by Globalization. The rich get richer
and the poor get poorer.
2) Threat to national and economical sovereignty: More dependence on external
inputs. (Question of local objectives and policies, local overdependence and cultural
homogeneity)
3) Faster ecological degradation: As high competition due to globalization spurs
industrialization which hampers the environment.
What are the modes of International Business?
There are basically three aspects of international business:
1) Manufacturing in home country
2) Manufacturing in host country
3) Project/Services in host country
1) Manufacturing in home country: In this case the products are manufactured in
home country and then exported to host country. E.g. GE manufactures in USA and
exports in the host country. It is feasible when:
a) Excess capacity in home country
b) Quality allowed by host country
c) The labor costs are low in home country
d) Transportation costs are not high
e) No tariff barriers to exports.
The advantage of this method is scale economy and excess capacity utilization.
# Exports can be Direct or Indirect.
Direct Exports involves independent distributors where company is in direct touch with the
customers. Distributors buy the goods from the manufacturer in large quantities. They sell the
product, know the country market well. A partnership happens between client and customer.
Sales people are trained and sent for missionary distribution. It also involves investing in
your ace staff to help with the sales of the product. Feedback is possible in this.
Indirect Exports is through agents in the home country and trading houses in other countries.
Agents do not have ownership, but act on behalf of the client. They generally have a good
track record of sales. The cost incurred by agents in sales is not reimbursed by the company,
but it is contained in the commission they get. In the case of non-exclusive agencies, the
agents can work for other manufacturers as well. Agents get paid only when the contract is
bagged. Thus it leads to economies of scale and scope. However the disadvantage is that here
feedback is not available, since no interaction with the customer and it is meant for short term
gains. This poses a sustainability issue for the manufacturer as it might be dumped as soon as
a cheaper manufacturer is found. Thus companies find it convenient to sell through trading
houses and one stop shops, as it helps in entering different markets and risk is not present.
E.g. Mitsubishi sells through one stop shops. #
#Piggy Back: When other companies use the distribution of a particular company. E.g.
Voltas. It has an excellent distribution network in India. Other companies approach Voltas for
distribution. They are non-competing products. Voltas gets paid for it. Foreign companies pay
Voltas for distribution. E.g. Fiat is using Tatas distribution now. Tata uses Fiats engine. They
are mutually helping each other. #
2) Manufacturing in host country: The manufacturing in the host country can be done
either by contract manufacturing or by licensing.
a) Contract Manufacturing: In contract manufacturing the company gives a contract to
local manufacturers to manufacture the product instead of setting up a factory. E.g.
Nike has done contract manufacturing with Chinese manufacturers for 1 year. As
knowhow would be shared, only strong brands like Nike can do it.
The advantages are:
i)
The companies will have a low level of involvement and in turn get a taste of
the market first.
ii)
No labour issues
iii)
Control of the market as it is the company that sells and interacts with the
customer.
iv)
Low risk option as company can terminate the contract and switch.
The disadvantages are:
i)
Dependency
ii)
Sharing of profits thus lesser margins
iii)
No control over quality, manufacturer may not be loyal
iv)
It makes the local manufacturers strong and they can turn into competitors as
they know the technique, style and design and take over the market.
b) Licensing: In licensing the licensor permits the use of technology for a certain period
of time to the licensee for the manufacturing of licensed products and sale of the
licensed products in the licensed territories. Here the licensor owns the technology.
The licensee is permitted to use the technology. For this the licensee pays downpayment as well as royalty to the licensor.
Royalty is always on sales and not on production. Host country Govt. sets the
guidelines and rules.
Companies get into licensing as there is a pressure to shorten the PLC.
Once the license is over, the licensee can use the technology, but it is not possible for
licensor to enter into the market.
Licensing is good when the political risk is high. Licensor can use the royalty on R &
D and create next generation product in accordance with the market need.
Licensee is using depreciated assets, but licensor works with todays costs, i.e. cost
factor is higher for the licensor. No customer relations exist so licensor starts from the
beginning. Thus there is higher risk in licensing than contract manufacturing.
The advantages are:
i)
Recovery of R & D investment as fast as possible
ii)
Lesser capital investment
iii)
Brand value is known
iv)
No labour issues
The disadvantages are:
i)
Creating a competition, as the licensee is in touch with the customer.
3) Projects/services in host Country:
a) BOT (Build, own and transfer)
b) BOOT (Build, own , operate & transfer)
c) Turnkey Project (Build and transfer): Client in host country. Entire responsibility
from concept to commission is given to the expert company, including design, global
procurement, testing stage up to product being switched on. Global bidding takes
place. E.g. Bechtel is a leading US based company in the infrastructure construction
sector, which designs and executes projects in Machine technology. It sources funds
from World Bank and Asian Bank, and is actively involved in the planning of where
the plant should be located and what its capacity should be. It acts as a consultant and
takes commission. The client of Bechtel only turns the key i.e. starts using it. Hence
they are called turnkey projects or turnkey contracts.
The advantages are:
i) It gets references for other projects in host country and in countries around it.
ii) Increases the domain knowledge
iii) It gets fees and part of profit. Payment is received in installments at different
milestones. It is called progress payment
d) Management Contract: Unlike the turnkey contract, management contract has the
asset. But here the company is not confident to run the plant alone (market/operation).
One company provides personnel to perform general or specialized management
functions for another. It is recurring. The company gets profit, increases its captive
capacity. E.g. Wholecem was paid money by local Dubai Cement Company for
management contract. Wholecem increases capacity in terms of infrastructure and
technology transfer and marketing strategies. So, after few years it can become
independent. They can expand to the international market. They can understand
market demand and competition to be faced.
The money received / paid in management contract is:
i)
ii)
i)
Royalty set by the host country based on the percentage of sales. Royalty is
always on sales and not on production.
ii)
iii)
Training purposes
Lump sum payment up to 8 % of projected sales is easily accepted by the Indian Govt. It is
paid only once. R & D cost has to be recovered in 3 years on an average.
The advantages are:
a) Lesser capital investment
b) Good income and faster R & D recovery which can be invested to come up with
newer versions
c) Right capacity to license
d) Licensor gets tie ups with best distributors, knows local market and has cost
advantage
e) Licensor can cover many countries in the world at faster speed.
f) Brand value of licensor increases.
g) No labour laws issues.
If licensor is ready with the new version, and the host country is also ready for it, then
licensing is profitable, else it is not.
The disadvantages are:
a) Diffusion of technology
b) Losing the market to licensee, as customer contact is lost.
c) Increase in competition, as at the expiry of the licensing agreement the licensee will
become the competitor to the licensor. So the market presence increases with
licensing.
While licensing deals with products, franchising refers to services. E.g. Mc Donalds.
It involves not the use of technology but the trade mark or brand name. The territory will not
cover countries. Royalty is lower compared to licensing. Customization/Adaptation is
required for each country.
4) Assembly:
In case of assembly, different parts of the product are manufactured in different countries.
The assembly of the parts takes place in the host country. Over a period of time the
product becomes local to the host country. It involves local labour.
The advantages are:
a) Host country likes it, as it creates employment, causes technology upgradation, and
causes increase in indirect and corporate tax collection resulting from profits.
b) Scale economies as there is no transportation cost.
c) Customization is easier and can be done as per host country rules
d) Employment generation
e) Government will ask manufacturers to manufacture parts in host country. Tax benefits
can be demanded for backward integration in this case.
f) Local procurement: Host country suppliers get better prices.
The disadvantages are:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Huge investment
Irreversible process. Exit is difficult as Govt. will not allow you to exit.
Hassles with labour laws
Difficulty in understanding companies dynamics, such as languages, culture etc.
Risk increases because of political situations.
5) Joint Venture:
In a Joint Venture, both the parties contribute a certain amount of equity and form a
new company. It involves sharing risk and cost with local partner. E.g. Tata and
Honeywell
The advantages are:
a) Local market familiarity i.e. suppliers, distributors, employers and established channel
partners etc can be known through the local company
b) Labor management
c) Host country relation / relation with banks
d) Reduces risk as sharing risk and cost in unknown market
e) Cultural bridge
f) Local JV company having good political contacts can be leveraged upon
g) Synergy
h) Liability in host country is responsibility of JV. So parent company is insulated. E.g.
Union Carbide- Bhopal Gas Tragedy
The disadvantages are:
a) Cross-cultural differences/ Cultural mismatch due to environmental changes, guard
technology
b) Change in company strategies may lead to Divergence E.g. Tata decided it does not
want to explore instrumentation. Honeywell offered to buy Tatas share without legal
hassles.
c) No intended technology transfer but technology gets diffused.
d) Synergy issues
e) Loss of interest by one party.
f) Due to high profits, the company wants to become independent and leave the sleeping
partner.
# When one partner is government, it is called Mixed Venture #
The reasons for engaging in Joint Venture are:
a) To enter into a foreign country
b) Suppliers, Distributors and established channel partners
c) Good brand name and relations
d) Sharing risks as well as costs
e) Cultural Bridge
f) Only way to get 100% FDI otherwise not possible due to government restrictions
g) Joint ventures are a necessity by government
h) Profit sharing/market sharing
The reasons for the failure of Joint Venture are:
a) Change in external environment
b) Conflict of vision/interest
c) Both parties not contributing equally
d) Sharing of market leading to market contraction
e) Global competitiveness requires control, which is not entirely present with either
party.
f) JV might be due to govt. regulations so might be a compulsion.
# In UAE, local partnership is 51% except in Jabel Ali Free Zone: 100% free zone in Dubai
1) Connectivity advantage as it is the gateway to Europe, Africa, South-East Asia and
West Asia
2) Volatile, politically unsafe (frequent way)
3) Distance from equator #
6) Wholly Owned Subsidiary:
A wholly owned subsidiary is a subsidiary whose parent company owns 100 percent
of its common stock and there are no minority owners. There is 100% control, no
local partners. Risk involved as there are no local partners and political risk is high.
Features MNEs should have to be WOS:
a) Global Brand
b) Innovative product
c) Access to distribution channels
d) Host country government wants the company in the country
e) Effective customer reach, good CRM
f) Product knowledge, core competency, retailer is ready to fill his shelf with the product
g) Good adaptable workforce
h) Adaptable market (market ready for product or market can be created)
The advantages are:
1) Freedom in designing the plant
2) No dilution of brand image
3) No dilution of profits
4) Total control over operations in the host country
5) No dilution of system processes
6) Processes are standardized
7) If govt. likes the company, it will have concession in most of the agenda points.
8) Whole operation can be integrated with global operations
The disadvantages are:
1) Total risk ownership. No risk sharing
2) Less knowledge of the market
3) Degree of competition increases
7) Acquisition:
Acquisition may be defined as a corporate action in which a company buys most, if
not all, of the target companys ownership stakes in order to assume the control of the
target firm.
The advantages are:
1) Acquiring the entire target company
2) Saves time as it is quick to reach the market
3) Ease of access in the market, due to well established distribution and sales channel
4) The competition in the market remains unchanged
5) Company has a good domain knowledge and benefits from local technology
governance of a country becomes simple with education. In India, education is being given
the paramount importance.
2) Religion:
Religion is a major aspect of consumer behaviour. It is a strong shaper of values. Within
religion there are many factions whose specific beliefs may affect business. Religion also has
influence on practices. From business perspective, products/services have to be in sync with
religion. The religion with the largest presence is Christianity.
3) Language:
Language is a factor that greatly affects cultural stability. It includes spoken, written as well
as body language. When people from different areas speak the same language, culture spreads
more easily. Business can be done more easily with other nations that share the same
language. Because countries see language as an integral part of their cultures, they sometimes
regulate their languages. For advertising the language has a greater impact e.g. Mandarin in
China
4) Aesthetics:
As far as aesthetics is concerned, sensory perceptions play a major role. Here, consumer
behaviour is very important. There are many aspects from business point of view:
a) Design: How you make your product.
b) Colour: Packaging
c) Music: Advertising
d) Product Policy
e) Consumer preferences.
f) Brand Name Customization
5) Attitudes, values and beliefs:
Attitudes are inherent in us. They are deep seated and cannot be seen. Behaviour is the
manifestation of attitude. Changing behaviour is easier but changing attitude is difficult.
Values are derived from the people around us like parents, teachers and the society. From
company perspective understanding belief is very important. Beliefs are derived from values
and history. Beliefs are related to education also. From company perspective predispositions
i.e. risk taking ability, creativity, demands compliance etc. are important.
6) Technology and Material Culture:
It determines how much the culture has adopted technology. E.g. Robotics is being used in
US for certain kind of jobs. However countries differ in their degree of materialism.
7) Social Unit:
In some societies the family is the most important group membership. However some
societies are different. E.g. African tribes are big social units, where the chieftain makes all
the decisions. In Japanese/ American societies, individuals leave the family by the time they
come to college. In societies in which there is low trust outside the family, small family run
companies are quite successful. But these companies have difficulty in growing because of
their reluctance to share responsibility with professional managers.
8) Opinion Leaders:
People respect the opinions of these leaders. Opinion Leaders help in speeding up the
acceptance of change. By discovering the local channels of influence an international
company may locate opinion leaders. Opinion leaders may emerge in unexpected places.
Characteristics of opinion leaders vary from country to country. These are believed to be
impartial in their region. If an MNE can convince opinion leaders, then MNEs can easily
succeed.
What are the parameters of culture used to distinguish countries?
The parameters are as follows:
to choose their profession. For employee engagement we need to know the family values and
the priority of work-life balance. There is tremendous respect for elders in certain countries,
not only in the family but in work place also. But age does not matter in some other countries.
They go by meritocracy.
What are the Relationship Preferences that affect IB?
There are basically three aspects:
1) Power distance
2) Individualism Vs Collectivism
3) Authoritative Vs Participative
1) Power Distance:
Power distance is a term describing the relationship between superiors and subordinates.
Employee preferences in how to interact with their bosses, subordinates and peers varies
substantially internationally. Where power distance is high, people prefer little consultation
between superiors and subordinates. Similarly where power distance is low, people prefer and
usually have consultative styles.
2) Individualism Vs Collectivism:
Some societies are individualistic (American society) where the effort is single handed and
group effort is to the extent necessary, where as in collective societies (Japanese society)
people prefer to work in teams but take a longer time to come up with a consensus. Attributes
of individualism are low dependence on the organization and a desire for personal time,
freedom and challenge. The attributes of collectivism are dependence on the organization,
desire for training, good physical conditions and benefits.
3) Authoritative Vs Participative:
In authoritative societies people prefer being instructed. They like authoritative decisions,
where as in participative societies people work in consent with each other. In certain
countries people like to take decisions where as it is exactly opposite in some other countries.
How Maslows hierarchy of needs varies across countries?
According to this theory there are five levels of needs, the needs from lowest to highest level
being physiological, security, affiliation, esteem and self actualization. People try to fulfill
lower level needs sufficiently before moving on to higher ones. But different countries have
different levels of needs. So this theory is helpful for differentiating the reward preferences of
employees in different countries.
What are the risk taking behaviours, which affect IB?
Risk taking behaviours are basically categorized into four categories
1) Uncertainty avoidance
2) Trust
3) Future Orientation
4) Fatalism
1) Uncertainty Avoidance:
In countries with high uncertainty avoidance, employees prefer set rules that are not to be
broken even if it is for company's best interest. In these countries people prioritize job
security and spend a longer time in a particular company. On the other hand, in countries with
low uncertainty avoidance people are adaptable to change easily. They like to try new
products/services.
2) Trust:
The level of trust among people varies across countries. In countries with high trust level like
the USA and Norway the cost of doing business is low because costs incurred in supervision
and contingency can be lowered. Companies have to be more cautious in doing business in
low trust level countries like Brazil and India. Low degree of trust implies less assumptions
and comprehensive agreement documents.
3) Future Orientation:
Countries differ in the extent to which individuals live for present rather than for future. In
countries with high future orientation like India and Japan, companies motivate workers
through delayed compensation like retirement programs, pension, gratuity, savings, provident
fund, superannuation fund (tax-free till withdrawal) where as it is exactly opposite in
countries with low future orientation. Lower degree of future orientation implies that savings
bank schemes will have difficulty.
4) Fatalism:
In countries with high degree of fatalism, people plan less for contingencies. They believe
that unfortunate events are acts of god. People are reluctant to take insurance schemes. High
fatalistic people are less swayed by bosses persuasive logic. Higher degree of fatalism
implies lesser motivation. Insurance sector would face difficulty in such cultures.
What are the information and task processing issues that affect IB?
1) Idealism Vs Pragmatism:
Idealist cultures first determine principle before resolving small issues where as pragmatist
cultures focus more on details of the issue rather than on principles for resolution.
What are the issues faced while dealing with cultural differences?
1) Culture Shock Vs Reverse Culture Shock:
Culture shock is the frustration that results when a person moves to another country and has
to learn and cope with a vast array of cultural cues and expectations. Some people also
encounter culture shock while returning to the home country because they have learned a
different culture abroad. This is known as reverse culture shock.
2) Accommodation of foreigners:
Every country does accommodate foreigners. The principal reason is business and FDI, in
return of which the country will emerge in the world map. However the local citizens treat
local people and foreigners differently. In many countries foreign women are easily accepted
as managers as compared to local women.
What should one do to institute cultural change within the company?
Cultural change or diffusion is a slow process. It involves:
1) Induction: Choose the sequence of change correctly
2) Create respect for the new culture by having role models in different places. This
can be done by sending expatriates to the home country.
3) Include employees in cross-functional teams
What are the various aspects of implementation of cultural change in an MNE?
The culture of a country cannot be changed. The various aspects of implementation of
cultural change in an MNE are as follows:
1) Value Systems: The more something counters our value system, the more difficult it
becomes to accept.
2) Cost benefit analysis of change: Some changes to foreign culture increase the
productivity and sales greatly where as some other changes to foreign culture increase
the productivity marginally. So we have to consider the cost due to such changes to
foreign culture and the benefits associated with those changes.
3) Too much change too soon: People are generally reluctant to accept too many
changes too soon. So the changes in products/services have to be made in a phased
manner.
4) Reward sharing: Sometimes a proposed change may have no foreseeable benefit to
the people who must support it. In this scenario the profits generated due to the
proposed change has to be shared among the people who must support it.
5) Participation in change decision: To avoid problems arising from a proposed
change, all the stakeholders are made to participate in change decisions. By this
method the company may learn how strong the resistance will be if changes are made.
6) Opinion leaders: Sometimes opinion leaders greatly help to speed up the acceptance
of change. By discovering the local channels of influence, a company might locate an
opinion leader.
7) Timing: Many good business decisions fall flat because they are ill timed. So changes
should be implemented at the right time so that it can be easily accepted.
8) Learning Abroad: Company gains more experience in overseas operations. They
may learn as well as impart valuable knowledge that proves as useful in the home
country as in the host country.
What are the various types of Company and Management Orientations?
The adaptation of a foreign culture by a company not only depends upon the conditions of the
foreign culture but also depends upon the attitudes of managers of the company. So
accordingly the attitudes or orientations can be broadly classified into three categories:
1) Polycentrism
2) Ethnocentrism
3) Geocentrism
1) Polycentrism:
A polycentric organization customizes business practices/ management processes for different
countries. The organization believes that business units in different countries should act very
much like local companies. It gives a better foothold in the market but the downside is that
the company has to give up its core business practices or core competence. Excessive
polycentrism may lead to such extensive imitation of proven host-country practices that the
company loses its innovative superiority.
2) Ethnocentrism:
In ethnocentrism the company believes that the world is the same, so what worked well in the
home country will work well in the host country. It might be business practices, management
systems or retention of employees. Since cultures and people are different, ethnocentrism
does not necessarily work. In ethnocentrism managers overlook important cultural factors
abroad because they have become accustomed to certain cause and effect relationships in the
home country. Here the management recognizes the environmental differences but still
focuses on achieving home country objectives.
3) Geocentrism:
Geocentrism is a judicial process. Here a model is being created taking into consideration the
host country needs and own company practices. Geocentrism exists when a company bases
its operations on an informed knowledge of its organization culture along with in-depth
understanding of home and host country markets, needs, capabilities and constraints.
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Disruption of property.
Unilateral breach of contract.
Restrictions on repatriation of profit.
Differing points of view.
Discriminatory taxation policies.
1) Expropriation or Nationalization:
a) A govt. or political faction unilaterally takes ownership of the companys local assets.
This is because the host countries felt that MNEs are exploiting resources in the host
country and there is no impact on the economy of the country. Compensation to the
company, if at all forthcoming is generally a trivial percent of the assets value. This
event was common in the 1960s and 1970, but is rare today. However in any event the
losses are immense.
b) Sometimes the companys assets are taken over by the host country with or without
adequate compensation. It is generally a hostile takeover, a mandate and not a choice
which is given to the company. It generally happens in developing countries for
natural resources like oil, diamond when the host country feels that there is no value
addition. E.g. Cuba, Chile, Venezuela, Uganda, Zambia, Ethiopia, Iran
2) Disruption of property:
a) Kidnapping, thefts occur.
b) Strikes happen resulting in loss of profit (opportunity loss) in addition to property
getting damaged.
3) Unilateral breach of contract:
a) Decision of a government to repudiate the original contract that it had negotiated with
the foreign company. The revision penalizes the firm and rewards the nation by
reallocating the profits of the local operations.
b) In addition this extends to government approval of a local companys choice to breach
its contracts with its foreign partner.
c) In some countries the new govt. might not honour the previous management
contracts / leases.
4) Restrictions on repatriation of profit:
The govt. arbitrarily sets limits on the gross amount of profits a foreign company can remit
from its local operation.
5) Differing points of view:
Differing interpretation of labour rights and environmental obligations create backlash
problems in the foreign companys home market.
6) Discriminatory taxation policies:
A foreign company bears a higher tax burden than the local firm, or in some cases, the more
favoured foreign company, due to its nationality.
How to access political risk?
Managers use 3 approaches to predict political risk:
1) Analyzing past trends.
2) Taking expert opinion.
3) Examining the social and economic conditions that might lead to such political risk.
(Semi-Analytical approach)
4)
1) Analyzing past trends:
Companies cannot help but get influenced by past patterns of political risk. Management can
make predictions based on past patterns. Predicting risk using past trends holds many
dangers. However political situations may change rapidly for better or worse as far as foreign
companies are concerned.
E.g.:
a) China Govt. control: More subsidies to SEZs but no transparency (Govt. controls the
judiciary). Compliance for intellectual property rights is very low. China has high
political risk.
b) Dubai: It is volatile geographically. High political risk.
c) FDI into US fell sharply after 2001 terrorist attack in NY because foreign firms saw
the US as less safe than before.
d) Expropriation of property occurred frequently in the 1970s and early 1980s, but it has
been less important in recent years.
e) In Pakistan, initially democracy ruled and then dictatorship where as in India it has
always been democratic in spite of change in governments.
2) Expert Opinions:
Companies may rely on experts opinion about a countrys political situation, with the
purpose of ascertaining how influential people may sway future political events affecting
business. 360 degree feedback is important.
Companies read the statements made by political leaders both in and out of office to
determine their philosophies on business in general, foreign input to business, the means of
affecting economic changes and their feelings toward given foreign countries. Managers visit
the country and listen to a cross section of opinions. Embassy officials and foreign and local
business people are useful sources of opinions about the probability and direction of change.
Journalists, academicians, middle level local govt. authorities and labor leaders usually reveal
their own attitudes, which often reflect changing political conditions that may affect the
business sector. Companies may determine opinions more systematically by relying on
analysts with experience in a country. These analysts might rate a country on specific political
conditions that could lead to problems for foreign businesses. A company also may rely on
commercial risk assessment services, such as those published by Business International,
Economist Intelligence Unit, and Euro Money etc.
In this method companies should examine views of govt. decision makers and then get a
cross-section of opinions and use expert analysts.
3) Economic and Social Perspective (Semantic Technique/ Semi-Analytical
Approach):
There are two economic parameters i.e. aspiration level and achievement level. Aspiration
level of people spreads with education, TV, Internet where as the achievement level increases
with income level. Differences in aspiration level and achievement level leads to frustration.
If disparity between the two is very high year after year, then the frustration level increases.
Higher the frustration level, higher the political risk in terms of unrest. Companies may
examine countrys social and economic conditions that could lead to the peoples level of
aspirations and the countrys level of welfare and expectations. If there is a great deal of
frustration in a country, groups may disrupt business by calling general strikes and destroying
property and supply lines.
E.g. Export Credit Guarantee Corp: gives ratings for the countrys risk.
What are the types of legal systems?
The legal system addresses all the disputes.
1) Common Law: Based on equity. It is the oldest system originated from the UK, then
spread through the commonwealth countries. It is based on jurisprudence. 30
countries follow common law system. Less written report, more importance on
interpretation. To have a full detailed agreement is better, since there is no confusion.
E.g. India
2) Civil Law: Judges apply the law more than interpretation.
3) Code Law: Started in Roman Empire, and then spread to European countries.
Agreements refer to code laws. E.g. Japan, China, South Korea
4) Theocratic Law: Based on religious concepts. Prevalent mostly in Islamic countries.
Evolves from the teachings of religious leaders. E.g., Interest, insurance is not
allowed.
5) Mixed: Combination of these laws. E.g. some states within US follow code, some
follow common law.
What are the types of Political Risk?
There are four types of political risk:
1) Systemic.
2) Procedural
3) Distributive
4) Catastrophic
1) Systemic Political Risk:
This risk arises when there is a change in the political ideology or government of a country.
These kinds of risks are inherent in the system. Domestic and International companies face
political risks created by shifts in public policy or change in political ideology. These
regulations alter the business system for all companies, so not necessarily meant for only
foreign companies. Then again, a government may target its public policy initiatives toward a
specific economic sector that it believes foreign companies unduly dominate. Systemic
changes do not necessarily create political risks that reduce potential profits.
E.g. In 1990, the newly elected Argentina govt. began a radical program of deregulation and
privatization of the state centered economy.
2) Procedural political risk:
Companies procure from best sources from different countries to have comparative
advantage. Globally competent supply chain is required from most competitive/best sources.
The three main objectives of supply chain are:
a) Lowest cost.
b) Shortest time.
2) Maintain the countrys security (No aggression from neighbours, keeping the integrity
of borders)
3) Law and Order (No discrimination, economic safety, independent judiciary)
4) Economic development (Infrastructure, Education)
5) Business Friendly policies (No discriminatory taxes- foreign companies should not be
made to pay more taxes, open sectors, allowing new companies to start businesses,
IPR, tax concessions)
A countrys political environment has enormous implications to managers and companies. A
political system is the complete set of institutions, political organizations, interest groups, the
relationships between those institutions and the political norms and rules that govern their
functions. The purpose of a political system must agree, is that it integrates different groups
into a functioning, self sustaining and self governing society. Ultimate test of a political
system is its ability to unite a society in the face of divisive pressures of competing ideas and
outlooks.
What are the various Groups of countries?
1) EU (27 including Romania)
2) MERCUSOR (4 including Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay. Venezuela still
trying)
3) ASEAN (Singapore economically mightiest, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand,
Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, Brunei, Laos)
4) GCC (6 including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait)
5) SAARC (India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh. Afghanistan trying to enter)
6) NAFTA (3 including Canada, US, Mexico)
Russia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, China dont come under any of the
above.
What are the aspects of International Arbitration?
If you have a dispute then it is better not to go to court as it increases expenses and create
bitterness between the two parties. One can go for arbitration through out-of-court settlement.
The aspects are:
a) An arbitrator is appointed by both parties
b) Arbitration is governed by law. There are a set of procedures present. Neither
countrys rules apply. International arbitration laws are to be followed.
c) Venue of arbitration should be neutral ground and pre-decided.
d) There is no escalation. The decision of the arbitrator is final.
Indian Arbitration Act of 1940 has all the details.
Distinguish between Rule of Law and Rule of Man.
In rule of law it is democracy, larger number of people in decision making, less risk, follows
rules of book. There is transparency. E.g. India
In rule of man it can be communist, monarchy or dictatorship. It is unpredictable, can
suddenly change, high political risk. E.g. China, ruled by agency CPC
What is IPR?
It is regarding patents, copyrights. The PLC is changing, as well as the business cycles. The
only way to get competitive advantage is through innovation, thus IPR is becoming
important. China does not believe in IPR. Innovation belongs to the state according to them
and this is against MNEs. But MNEs are attracted to China because of the huge market of
1.4 billion people (23% of World population), low labour cost and the business-friendliness
of the Govt. IPR compliance is under WTO.
Contract R & D
MNEs thrive on innovation and normally it takes place in the home country. US, Japan etc
are quite expensive for R& D but at the same time, lot of R & D is to be done. Companies
need to take the critical decision as to where to do their R & D. The relatively lesser
important R & D things can be outsourced. When the standalone things are outsourced, it is
known as modular outsourcing. Thus the features are:
1) They should outsource it to important markets (where demand is high and they can
customize and give the product)
2) The country to which outsourcing is done should have a good IPR rating
3) Good infrastructure should be present.
The advantages are:
1) By outsourcing you can understand that market well.
2) It is less expensive
3) It helps to build relationships with the host country
4) Low cost of manpower
5) The ease of segmenting the outsourcing into critical and non-critical.
The disadvantage is that technology diffusion takes place.
What are the strategic aspects relating to a countries political and legal environment?
1) Marketing related laws:
a) Advertising (not using children in ads)
b) No comparative ads
c) Ads of tobacco are banned
2) Marketing behavior:
a) Product liability: Huge penalty if your product fails. E.g. Brake fail in a car, toxins
in a toy
b) Local content: How much will be allowed to manufacture. Govt. pushing for
backward integration.
5) Inflation
6) Interest Rates
7) Exchange Rate fluctuations
8) Trade Gap Surplus/Deficit
9) Sectoral Break-up of Exports/Imports
10) FDI - Inbound/Outbound
11) Balance of Payments
12) Deficit
13) Debt and Debt servicing
14) HDI
1) GDP, GDP growth rate, sectoral break-up of GDP:
GDP is the total market value of all goods and services produced within a nations borders
over one year, no matter whether domestic or foreign owned companies make the product.
For countrys attractiveness GDP is a more important factor. It is independent of country size.
In addition to the GDP, the sectored break up and growth rate also needs to be known for a
country.
Every country goes through an economic cycle:
a) Primary:
i)
Agriculture (Edible/Non-edible)
ii)
Prospecting (Natural Resources)
b) Secondary: Manufacturing
c) Services: Higher added value
The three major sectors of India are agriculture, manufacturing and services. Services sector
is the major sector.
If we take the growth rate, then developed countries have a stable growth rate but are not
growing rapidly where as the developing countries are growing at a rapid rate although their
economic base is smaller. From an organization point of view, the growth rate of the relevant
markets sector needs to be considered. Also the growth rate of the sector from where the
resources are obtained is to be considered. This is because more percentage of GDP needs to
go into a particular sector which requires more development and infrastructure. MNEs will
invest in that sector, leading to more demand and skilled labour availability (factor
conditions). It is beneficial to operate from that country. So compared to absolute growth rate,
sectoral break up is more important.
Classification based on GDP
1) LDC (least developed country): Africa. It has an untapped market, low income levels,
undergoing infrastructure development by World Bank.
2) Developing: China- 10%, India- 8%, most developing countries have risk.
3) Developed: US, Japan- Highest GDP. Japan has no natural resources, still developed
based on technology and infrastructure.
2) GDP Per Capita (Absolute and at PPP):
Absolute GDP is obtained by managers by dividing the GDP by the population of a country.
This ratio leads to a per capita estimator that measures the relative performance of a countrys
economy. It signifies the average income level of the country. It determines which kinds of
products will be bought by the people of that country. It is a good indicator for consumer
goods where as for industrial goods sectoral break up is a good indicator. In India, the GDP
per capita is below 1000.
However, absolute GDP/population cannot be used to compare 2 countries, and does not
properly reflect buying power. For this we have PPP.
The Purchasing power parity is the number of units of a countrys currency required to buy
the same amounts of goods and services in the domestic market that one unit of income
would buy in the other country. It is useful to compare the purchasing power of different
countries. The most common PPP exchange rate comes from comparing a basket of goods
and services in a country with an equivalent basket in the United States. In other words it is
the number of monetary units that will buy in India the same goods and services that $1 will
buy in the US. Ability to buy can be determined by PPP. This is important for MNEs.
3) Population (urban/rural, age-distribution, health, education):
There are a total of 6 billion people in the world. India and China are countries with 1 billion
plus population where as the average population of a country is 10 million. Together they
constitute 40% of the total population. The population tells us about the market size (market
potential). A higher population means low labour cost countries.
There are several parameters like age, gender, level of education, health and urban/rural
distribution.
a) Age Distribution: India has an advantage, as it has more youth population, a larger
available workforce which is employable and trainable. Japan has a disadvantage as it
has an ageing workforce and the number of dependents is high. They become
economic liabilities. Chinas disadvantage is the 1-child policy and a consequent less
youth population.
b) Gender: Certain professions are restricted to gents only. E.g.: Saudi Arabia
c) Education: The reach of advertisements will be determined by the literacy and
education level of the country. Also internet based products require different
education level, different demand and internet connectivity etc.
d) Health: If health is a concern, there occurs the problem of getting a proper workforce.
E.g. South Africa which is heavily affected by AIDS.
e) Urban/Rural Population: The nature of market is different whether it is urban
populated or rural populated. If there is more of a rural population then you cannot
reach those market areas and their needs/demands are less, since they have a different
standard of living. Hence that market cannot be counted.
4) Unemployment and Income Distribution:
The number of people eligible and willing to work but do not have work are termed
unemployed. The number of unemployed people divided by the total workforce gives the
unemployment rate. The proportion of unemployed workers in a country shows how well a
nations human resources are used and serves as a measure of economic activity.
High unemployment leads to:
a) Political risk/ riots/ loss of life/ increase in crime rate
b) Demand/Supply, less demand and more supply, thus low labour costs
c) If unemployment is high then companies have a better chance of getting more labour
as people do not have an option.
d) Low buying power.
As education level increases, the youth prefer not to work in certain sectors. Perception about
certain sectors has changed due to education/internet. MNEs look for those sectors where
employment is possible.
Managers access the situation of a country by checking the misery Index. Misery Index is the
sum of countrys inflation and unemployment rates. The higher the misery, the lower are the
chances that foreign companies will invest in the country.
The top 20% of the world population account for the 86% of the income where as the bottom
20% account for only 1%. In India 80% of the population earn less than $2 a day and 40% of
the population earn $1 a day. Therefore managers look for the economic potential of a
country by adjusting their analyses to reflect the actual distribution of income. The skewness
of the income distribution is very high in India as well as Asian countries.
Larger proportion of the middle class is considered healthy, as:
a) They tend to save more money and
b) They tend to educate their children
Thus they lead to healthier economic development.
If income distribution is unequal, then it will lead to poverty. So only a part of the population
will be relevant. Poverty impacts the economic environment and analyses to a huge extent.
International companies facing such situations must deal with their implications to virtually
every feature of the economic environment. In countries with high poverty levels customary
market systems may not exist, national infrastructure may not work, criminal behaviours may
be pervasive, and MNEs have to deal with these issues.
5) Inflation:
Inflation is the pervasive and sustained rise in the aggregate level of prices measured by an
index of the cost of various goods and services. Inflation results when aggregate demand
grows faster than aggregate supply and causes an increase in cost of living. From MNEs
perspective it determines the pricing and long term strategy. It is a large measure of MNEs
confidence. A moderate rate of inflation brings stability which is attractive to the MNEs. It is
a measure of the governments success in the economy. Inflation also puts great pressure on
governments to control it. Often governments try to reduce inflation by raising interest rates
and imposing protectionist trade policies and currency controls. Inflation should essentially
be low; around 3-4%. India last year had an inflation rate of 12%.
6) Interest Rates:
Interest rate is the indicator of cost of raising capital. Ideally interest rates should be low and
stable. Countries try to have interest rates which are close to LIBOR (London Inter Bank
Offer Rates). For a country, stability in inflation, interest rate and exchange rate are the
factors which attract other companies to invest in the country. The stability in these rates
helps in predicting the uncertainty in the business. Both interest rates and inflation move in
the same direction. When inflation goes up, the interest rates also go up to adjust the return
for the lender. Developed countries will have low interest rates as they have more money
supply i.e. cost of capital is low as there is high availability of capital. Developing countries
like India have abundant supply of labour but high interest rates due to low capital, which
might be due to low levels of industrialization. Low interest rates add to the countrys
attractiveness for investing as far as the MNE is concerned.
7) Exchange Rate Fluctuations:
Exchange rates between two currencies specify how much one currency is worth as compared
to the other. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets of the world. The
daily transaction in foreign exchange market is about $3.2 trillion dollars. When inflation is
high, export competitiveness go down and exchange rates also go down. Exchange rate
should be stable to avoid exchange gain/exchange loss.
a)
Human Developement Index is a futuristic parameter, which indicates the future potential
of a country. It serves as a lead indicator, which deals with the future deciding factors like
business growth and innovation and creation of the people of a country. The real
performance of the country can be gauged through HDI, which involves a combination of
social and economic parameters. HDI measures the average achievements in a country on
the following dimensions:
a) Longevity and health: Life expectancy increases if there are better medical facilities.
The more the life expectancy the better, as MNEs can count on better workforce
consisting of healthy people. E.g. Japan
b) Knowledge and Education level: As measured by the adult literacy rate and the
combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio. More the education
level, better the growth and development and better the economic level.
c) Standard of living: As measured by GDP/capita or GNI per capita expressed in PPP
for US dollars.
United Nations refined the HDI by adding two more dimensions:
d) Gender equality: A gender related development index that adjusts for gender
inequalities. It measures the extent to which women are liberalized.
e) Poverty: A measure of poverty to adjust for human deprivations and the denial of
choices and opportunities. The World Bank has stated that the minimum rate of
earning per person per day should be $2.
HDI aims to capture long-term progress in human development rather than short term
changes. HDI is scaled in between 0 and 1. Countries scoring less than 0.5 are having low
HDI. From 0.5 to 0.8 are having moderate and from 0.8 to 1 have high HDI. HDI
measures both economic and social parameters to estimate its current and future
economic activity. It indicates a countrys long term potential.
What are the types of Economic Systems?
An economic system is the set of structures and processes that guides the allocation of
resources and shapes the conduct of business activities. On one end there is capitalism and on
the other hand there is communism. Capitalism is a free market system built on private
ownership and control. Communism is a centrally planned system built on state ownership of
all economic factors of production and control of economic activity. Basically there are three
types of economic systems:
1) Market Economy
2) Command Economy
3) Mixed Economy
1) Market Economy:
It is basically a capitalist economy. In market economy individuals, rather than government,
make the majority of economic decisions. The theoretical principles that define free-market
economies are based on the principle of laissez-faire (non-intervention by government in
economic matters). This principle is credited to Adam Smith and his proposition that a market
economy has two general features:
a) Producers efficiently make products that consumers want in a profit making motive.
b) Consumers determine the relationships among price, quantity, supply and demand so
that capital and labour are allocated productively.
So the consumer sovereignty, where by consumers influence the allocation of resources
through their demand of products is the essence of market economy. A market is very less
dependent upon government rules and restrictions. However for some public goods like
traffic systems or national defence, government intervenes to enforce contracts, property
rights to ensure fair and free competition and to regulate certain economic activities and
must frame antitrust laws that encourage the development of industries with as many
competing businesses as the market will sustain. In such industries, prices are kept low by the
forces of competition. In India, the MRTP Act was implemented in 1973. Later it was
replaced by the Competition policy, which ensured that consumers get the right things at the
right prices. In US, the government has implemented the Shermans Act.
#FPI:
Foreign portfolio investments are meant for only short term purpose. Here the main motive is
to get a good return at a moderate risk with high liquidity. Countries cant get any controlling
stake by investing through FPI.
Forex Reserves:
It indicates the economic health and sustainability of the country. Forex reserves are required
for payment of interests, debts for imports. The Forex reserve of a country should be high.
Economic Risks:
Inflation, Interest Rate, Foreign Exchange. #
CHApter 5-6
Globalization: Globalization is the process of
international integration arising from the interchange of
world views, products, ideas, and other aspects of culture
Foreign Direct Investment: Foreign direct investment
(FDI) is a direct investment into production or business in
a country by an individual or company of another country,
either by buying a company in the target country or by
expanding operations of an existing business in that
country. Foreign direct investment is in contrast to
portfolio investment which is a passive investment in the
securities of another country such as stocks and bonds.
Wholly-Owned Subsidiary: Wholly owned subsidiary is a
company that is completely owned by another company
called the parent company or holding company.
exports, and put a cap on FDI, otherwise the country will not produce anything. Also
governments directly or indirectly subsidize domestic industries to help them engage foreign
producers at home or challenge them abroad.
All nations interfere with international trade to varying degrees. Governments intervene in
trade to attain economic, social or political objectives. Governments pursue political
rationality when trying to regulate trade. Governmental officials apply trade policies that they
reason have the best chance to benefit the nation and its citizen and in some case their
personal political longevity.
What is the role of the government as far as trade protectionism is concerned?
The role of the government is as follows:
1) Interest articulation: since different interest groups co-exist, so different interests need
to be put forward.
2) Interest aggregation: take all stakeholders view into account
3) Policy making
4) Implementation and adjudication
What are the economic rationales for governmental intervention?
The economic rationales are as follows:
1) Unemployment:
One of the social objectives of government is to prevent unemployment. The government can
do that through import restriction. One difficulty with restricting imports to create jobs is that
other countries normally retaliate with their own restrictions. In the long run, exports might
also reduce which might lead to further employment.
Two factors can ease the effects of retaliation:
a) Small trading countries are less important in the retaliation process.
b) Retaliation that decreases employment in a capital-intensive industry may not affect
employment as much as the value of the trade loss would imply.
If import restrictions do increase domestic employment, then fellow citizens will have to bear
the cost of higher prices or higher taxes. Government officials should compare the costs of
higher prices with the costs of unemployment and displaced production that would result
from freer trade. In addition, they must consider the costs of policies to ease the plight of
displaced employees, such as for unemployment benefits or retraining. The employment issue
can slow trade liberalization because displaced workers are often the ones who are least able
to find alternative work at a comparable salary. So, persistent unemployment pushes many
groups to call for protectionism. However, evidence suggests that efforts to reduce
unemployment through import restrictions are usually ineffective. Unemployment, in and of
itself, is better dealt with through fiscal and monetary policies.
2) Infant industry protection:
In 1792, Alexander Hamilton presented infant industry argument. This theory holds that a
government should shield an emerging industry from foreign competition by guaranteeing it a
large share of the domestic market until it is able to compete on its own. Government protects
these industries through subsidies, and in time, due to the learning curve, productivity
improves and the industries become competitive. The govt protects those infant industries for
which the country has either comparative or competitive advantage based on country
attractiveness factors. So the companies of those industries will become major exporters.
They become strong in the home market also.
Govt needs to protect its potential stars as well as sunrise industries, which are industries that
are coming up worldwide, which does not exist as of present. Govt needs to invest in sunrise
industries as they are the future. The infant industry argument presumes that the initial output
costs for a small scale industry in given country may be so high as to make its output non
competitive in world markets. Once the infant industry becomes globally competitive, the
government can then recoup the costs of trade protection through benefits like higher
domestic employment, lower social costs and higher tax revenues.
It is reasonable to expect production costs to decrease over time, but they may never fall
enough to create internationally competitive products. So there are two risks for protecting an
infant industry:
a) Governments must identify those industries that have a high probability of success.
b) Even if policy makers can determine those infant industries likely to succeed, it does
not necessarily follow that companies in those industries should receive governmental
assistance.
Infant industry protection requires some segment of the economy to incur the higher cost of
inefficient local production. Typically either consumers or tax payers take the burden.
Ultimately the validity of the infant industry argument rests on the expectation that the future
benefits of an internationally competitive industry will exceed the costs of the associated
protectionism.
3) Promote Industrialization:
Countries with a large manufacturing base generally have higher per capita incomes than
those that do not. Hence many emerging economies try to develop an industrial base by
largely regulating imports from foreign producers using trade protection to spur local
industrialization. As development increases, services increase. Productivity and man-power
play a greater role in services compared to the manufacturing and agriculture sector. Ideally a
larger share of the GDP should be from the manufacturing and services sector as the price
fluctuations are not much. There should be control on imports so that there is an impetus to
manufacture within the country.
The following are the effects of promoting industrialization:
a) Use of surplus workers.
b) Promoting investment inflows.
c) Diversification
d) Greater growth for manufactured products
e) Import substitution versus export promotion
f) Nation building
a) Use of surplus workers:
Surplus workers can more easily increase manufacturing output than agricultural output.
Since agricultural output per person is low, so many people can migrate from agricultural
sectors to industrial sectors and in turn increase industrial output. The industrialization
argument presumes that the unregulated importation of lower priced products prevents the
development of a domestic industry. However the industrialization rationale asserts that the
industrial output will increase, even if the prices are not globally competitive, because local
consumers must buy local goods from local producers.
b) Promoting investment inflows:
Inflows of foreign investment in the industrial area promote sustainable growth. Import
restrictions, applied to spur industrialization, may also increase foreign direct investment.
Foreign investment inflows may also add to local employment, which is attractive to
policymakers.
c) Diversification:
Prices and sales of agricultural products and raw materials fluctuate very much, which is a
detriment to economies that depend on few of them. Price variations due to uncontrollable
factors, such as weather affecting supply or business cycles abroad affecting demand, can
wreak havoc on economies that depend on the export of primary products. A greater
dependence on manufacturing does not either guarantee diversification of export earnings.
d) Greater growth of manufactured products:
Markets for industrial products grow faster than markets for agricultural products. The terms
of trade are the quantity of imports that a given quantity of a countrys exports can buy. The
prices of raw materials and agricultural commodities do not rise as fast as the prices of
finished products. Hence, overtime it takes more low priced primary products to buy the same
amount of high priced manufactured goods. So, emerging nations that depend on primary
products have become increasingly poorer relative to industrial countries. As an economy
progresses from agricultural to manufacture-oriented to service oriented, the negotiability
improves, and the country can earn more. The country needs to decide the quantity of exports
it wants. When quantity of exports required is less than the relative quantity of imports it
buys, the terms of trade is more favourable.
e) Import substitution versus export promotion:
Traditionally emerging economies promoted industrialization by restricting imports in order
to boost local production for local consumption. Some countries have achieved rapid
economic growth by promoting the development of industries that export their output. This
approach is known as export led development. Industrialization may result initially in import
substitution, yet export development of the same products may be feasible later.
f) Nation Building:
Industrial activity helps the nation building process. The performance of free markets
suggests a strong relationship between industrialization and aspects of the nation building
process. Industrialization helps countries to build infrastructure, advance rural development,
enhance rural peoples social life and boost the skills of the workforce.
4) Increasing countrys economic power or improving countrys competitive
positioning relative to other countries:
Countries monitor their absolute economic welfare as well as track how their performance
compares to other countries. Governments impose trade restrictions to improve their relative
trade positions. They also try to charge higher export and lower import prices. To remain
competitive and perform better economically, the countries adopt the following five methods.
a) Improving Balance of payments (BOP) through Balance of Trade
b) Restrictions as a Negotiating tool
c) Price control on exports
d) Fair access/Reciprocity
e) Dumping
f) Optimal tariff theory
a) Improving Balance of payments through BOT:
Governments can improve BOP by improving their balance of trade. If BOP difficulties arise
and persist, a government may restrict imports or encourage exports to balance its trade
account. One way to do this is to devalue the currency of the country, which makes all the
products cheaper in relation to foreign products.
b) Restrictions as a Negotiating tool:
The imposition of import restriction may be used as a means to persuade other countries to
lower their import barriers. To successfully use restriction as a bargaining tool required
careful consideration of what products to target. Basically the restrictions need to be
believable and important to the influential parties in the other country. Believable implies that
there are either alternative sources to buy the same product or that consumers are willing to
do without it.
c) Price control on exports:
Countries sometimes withhold goods from international markets in an effort to raise prices
abroad. This policy may also encourage other countries to develop technology that will
provide either substitute products or different ways of producing the same product. A country
may limit exports of a product that is in short supply worldwide in order to favour domestic
consumers. Companies sometimes export below cost or below their home country price, a
practice called dumping. Companies do dumping to build a market abroad.
d) Fair access/Reciprocity:
Companies and industries often argue that they are entitled to the same access to foreign
markets as foreign industries and companies have to their markets. Economic theory supports
this idea, reasoning that producers operating in industries where increased production leads to
steep cost decreases, but which lack equal access to a competitors market will struggle to
gain enough sales to be cost competitive.
e) Dumping:
Dumping is the selling of goods below the cost at which they are sold in the home country.
Companies resort to dumping, due to the following reasons:
i)
Excess production.
ii)
Companies using scale economies, enter a market at a low price, capture the
market and wipe out the local competitors at short term loss. As soon as
competition is wiped out, they start earning profits.
The WTO acts against dumping. The affected company must first make a representation to its
home country, and take permission from it. The commerce ministry of the country would then
forward the grievance to the WTO, which then gives the home country government the lead
to levy anti-dumping duty.
f) Optimal tariff theory:
Import or export duties are classified under tariffs. This theory states that a foreign producer
will lower its prices if the importing country places a tax or duty on its products. If this
occurs, benefits shift to the importing country because the foreign producer lowers its profits
on the export sales. A company having comparative advantage to produce a particular product
at a lower cost and good quality, will price it goods on the lower side. To reduce the disparity
between the price of these good and local goods, the country increases import duty so that
those cheap goods become little expensive. They attempt to make the imported goods
equally, if not less attractive, compared to local goods.
What are the noneconomic rationales for government intervention?
Governments are involved in the following noneconomic rationales:
1) Maintenance of essential industries
2) Prevention of shipment to unfriendly countries
3) Maintenance or extension of spheres of influence
4) Protecting activities that help preserve the national identity
1) Maintenance of essential industries:
The essential industries include defence, space research, media, education etc. Some of these
industries need to be controlled through government. Governments apply trade restriction to
protect essential domestic industries during peacetime so that a country is not dependent on
foreign sources of supply during war. This is called the essential industry argument. Because
of the high cost of protecting an inefficient industry or a higher cost domestic substitute, the
essential industry argument should not be accepted without a careful evaluation of costs, real
needs and alternatives. Once an industry receives protection, it is difficult to remove the
protection.
2) Prevention of shipment to unfriendly countries:
Here the government issues embargo or trade sanctions against rival countries i.e. companies
are not allowed to export goods to those countries. Countries achieve these political goals
using economic means i.e. trade controls. Countries also start blacklisting other countries
who supply to their rival countries. Countries concerned about security often use national
defence arguments to prevent the export, even to friendly countries, of strategic goods that
might fall into the hands of potential enemies or that might be in short supply domestically.
Export constraints may be valid if the exporting country assumes there will be no retaliation
that prevents it from securing even more essential goods from the potential importing
country. Trade controls on nondefense goods also may be used as a weapon of foreign policy
to try to prevent another country from meeting its political objectives. E.g. US does not
export to North Korea.
3) Maintenance or extension of spheres of influence:
It deals with the principle of neo-mercantilism. Governments give aid and credits to, and
encourage imports from countries that join a political alliance or vote a preferred way within
international bodies like the UN mainly to gain advantage or membership. Thus they increase
dependence of other countries on them and increase their sphere of influence. It is about
exporting to another country and in turn generating employment and BOP. A countrys trade
restrictions may coerce governments to follow certain political actions or punish companies
whose governments do not.
4) Protecting activities that help preserve the national identity:
Government's role is not only to govern the country but also to protect the country and put it
together. For this the country requires national identity and a sense of belongingness.
Countries are held together partially through a unifying sense of identity that sets their
citizens apart from those in other nations. Unity is required to collectively fight the
aggression of other countries. To sustain this collective identity, countries limit foreign
products and services in certain sectors. Our national flag, culture, films, sports etc are
manifestations of our patriotism, which preserves the distinct identity of the country.
What are the instruments of Trade Control?
The following are some of the instruments of trade control:
1) Tariff Barriers: A tariff (duty) is the most common type of trade control and is a tax
that governments levy on a good shipped internationally. Governments charge a tariff
when a good crosses its official boundary. Trade blocks also charge common tariff
rates to non member countries.
a) Export Tariff: Tariffs collected by the exporting country are called export tariffs.
Export tariffs are imposed because these items going out would affect local
industries. Export tariffs are put on essential items useful locally.
b) Transit Tariff: Tariffs collected by a country through which the goods have
passed are called a transit tariff.
c) Import Tariff: Tariffs collected by an importing country are called import tariff.
Import tariffs are imposed to make local production more attractive and
competitive.
Import tariffs raise the price of imported goods, thereby giving domestically produced goods
a relative price advantage. Tariffs also serve as a source of governmental revenue. Although,
revenue tariffs are most commonly collected on imports, many countries that export raw
materials charge export tariffs. WTO has a ruling to reduce customs duty gradually. Tariffs
can be specific duty, ad valorem duty and compound duty.
a) Specific (per unit, e.g. 5% per unit): where per unit basis duty is charged
the government of country A asks the government of country B to reduce its companies
exports to country A voluntarily. Here either country B volunteers to reduce its exports or
country A may impose tougher trade regulations. E.g. US and Japan. The advantages of VER
are:
i) VER is much easier to switch off than an import quota.
ii) The appearance of voluntary choice by a country, does not damage the political
relations between those countries as much as an import quota does.
A country may establish export quotas to assure domestic consumers of a sufficient supply
of goods at a low price to attempt to raise export prices by restricting supply in foreign
markets. The typical goal of an export quota is to raise prices to importing countries.
Embargo is a specific type of quota that prohibits all forms of trade between the countries.
Countries or group of countries may place embargoes on either imports or exports, on whole
categories of products or specific products with specific countries. Governments impose
embargoes in the effort to use economic means to achieve political goals.
c) Tied Aid to countries:
It is given externally and is based on neo-mercantilism. When governments give aid and
loans to other countries with precondition that the recipient is required to spend the funds in
the donor country, then it is known as tied aid or tied loan. Tied aid helps win large contracts
for infrastructure, such as telecommunications, electric power projects etc. Tied aid can slow
the development of local suppliers in developing countries and shield suppliers in the donor
countries from competition. E.g. EXIM Bank helps Malaysia to enable imports from India.
d) Buy local legislation:
Sometimes governments specify a domestic content restriction i.e. a certain percentage of the
product must be of local origin. Govt has the option of buying locally as well as
internationally. So by buying locally for certain industries like infrastructure and
pharmaceuticals, the govt gives protection to the local players. Sometimes they favour
domestic producers through price mechanisms. Many nations prescribe a minimum
percentage of domestic content that a given product must have for it to be sold legally in their
country. By doing this the local market develops and technology up gradation happens in the
local market. Exports also happen on the component parts and FDI improves.
e) Consular Fees:
Some countries require consular fees. It is required because:
i)
Documentation is necessary for authentication.
ii)
Some countries do not consider the documents genuine until it is stamped and
verified from their country embassy in their country. It is a very high amount
and delays the proceedings.
iii)
It is done with the aim of restricting imports as the increase in exports
procedure costs makes the import to the country less attractive.
f) Customs valuation and procedures:
While imposing tariffs on exports or imports, custom officials first use the declared invoice
price. If officials doubt the authenticity, then they impose tariff on the basis of the value of
identical goods. If not possible, then officials may compute a value based on final sales value
or on reasonable cost. Sometimes officials use their discretionary power to assess the value
too high, thereby preventing the importation of foreign made products. Sometimes import
clearances are slow in countries like US & Japan to discourage imports.
g) Standards and Labels:
Countries devise classification, labelling and testing standards to allow the sale of domestic
products but obstruct that of foreign made ones. In case of labels, the companies have to
indicate on a product the details, manufacturing/expiry dates content, cost etc in the countrys
official language. Labels provide information to consumers who may prefer to buy products
from certain nations. The purpose of standards is to protect the safety or health of the
domestic population. However some foreign companies argue that standards are just another
means to protect domestic producers as it requires customization and adds to manufacturing
cost.
h) Specific permission (Import licenses):
Some countries require that potential importers or exporters secure permission from
governmental authorities before conducting trade transactions. This requirement is known as
import license. This procedure can restrict imports or exports directly by denying permission
or indirectly because of the cost, time and uncertainty involved in the process. E.g. in India,
45 days are required for initial clearance of goods.
i) Foreign Exchange controls:
A foreign exchange control is a similar type of control. If there is no foreign exchange, the
country cannot import. Some countries have it only for national priority e.g. Food etc.
j) Administrative delays:
International administrative delays create uncertainty and raise the cost of carrying inventory.
Competitive pressure, however, moves countries to improve their administrative systems.
k) Counter Trade/Reciprocity:
Governments sometimes require that exporters take merchandise in lieu of money or they
promise to buy merchandise or services, in place of cash payment, in the country to which
they export. These sorts of barter transactions are called countertrade or offsets. More
frequently, however, reciprocal requirements are made between countries with ample access
to foreign currency that want to secure jobs or technology as part of the transaction or with
countries which do not have much foreign exchange. IF the government is involved in the
transaction it is called offset.
E.g. Columbia has coffee. Boeing sells planes. They have a counter-trade. Boeing agrees to
sell coffee where it will get best price. Boeing converts the aircraft prices to coffee (tonnes).
The transaction is done at the future price of coffee instead of the present. Boeing takes into
account the marketing and distribution cost of coffee also. The Govt of Columbia got planes.
Boeing took the risk of selling coffee, but got a market for spare parts and pilot training in
Columbia as well as good relations with it.
Buyback policy is followed when machinery cannot be afforded, due to non-availability of
required currency, so pay-back is done in the material produced. E.g. A chemical equipment
manufacturer approaches a potential client, who does not have foreign exchange. The
manufacturer agrees and makes an agreement with the client that whatever they manufacture
with their machinery should be sent back to them and they would then sell it.
This principle is called reciprocity. Around 15% of the global trade is through counter-trade.
It helps companies to have transactions which were otherwise not possible.
l) Restrictions on services:
Services are the fastest growing sector in international trade. Countries restrict trade in
services for 4 reasons:
i)
Essentiality:
Countries sometimes prohibit private companies, foreign or domestic, in some sectors
because they feel the services are essential, e.g. transportation which connects the masses
ii)
Not for profit services:
Certain services should not be sold for profit. In other cases government sets price controls
for private competitors or subsidize government owned service organizations, creating
disincentives for foreign private participation. Mail, education, hospital, media, insurance etc
are often not for profit sectors.
iii)
Standards:
Governments limit foreign entry into many service professions to ensure practice by qualified
and experienced personnel. Government has standards in terms of qualifications for rendering
services. E.g. a certain period of internship for doctors in India, CA in India and CPA in USA
for accounts personnel.
iv)
Immigration:
Governmental regulations often require that an organization, domestic or foreign, search
extensively for qualified personnel locally before it can even apply for work permits for
personnel it would like to bring in from abroad. Even if no one is available, hiring a foreigner
is still difficult. These are done to protect employment.
What are the implications of Government influences on trade for MNEs?
The implications are as follows:
1) Look at a countrys attractiveness and select the best country for operations.
2) Look at the countrys future in the next 3-4 years and likely changes which might
come.
3) Scan the environment correctly
4) Manufacture certain goods more attractively
If the tariff barriers are too high, then:
1) FDI is possible as MNE can enter the country easily through JV, wholly owned
subsidiary etc.
2) Transportation cost is high sometimes, so FDI is a good option.