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Historical
Method
Causal
Developing
in
Consumer
Explanations
Research:
of
Change
RUTHANN SMITH
DAVIDS. LUX*
Historical research provides a qualitative interpretive method uniquely formulated
to explain the causes of change through time. As such, it offers considerable potential
for expanding our current understanding of inherentlydynamic and volatile consumer
phenomena. Despite recent interest in interpretive approaches among consumer
researchers, the historical consumer behavior literature reveals that this method's
potential has not been fully realized. We argue that this underutilizationderives from
the absence of a full explication of history's methodological assumptions and requirements, which are substantially different from those that have traditionallydominated consumer research. We address this problem by providing a conceptual and
methodological review of historical research methods and by demonstrating the
application of historical method to the study of change in consumer behavior.
uringthe pastdecade,consumerresearchershave
initiated a substantial broadening of methodological orientation. This has resulted from a growing
recognition that social science research paradigms based
in economics, cognitive psychology, and behaviorism,
long dominant in consumer research, limit the research
questions the discipline can answer. The knowledge
generated under these paradigms constitutes a rich
foundation for explaining and predicting many forms
of consumer behavior, but the desire to understand
phenomena that have remained intractable has stimulated the adoption of various interpretive or humanistic research approaches. Among these, historical
analysis is emerging as a popular alternative. For that
reason, it becomes especially appropriate to evaluate
its current use among consumer researchers and to suggest ways in which its applications can be enhanced.
Historical method furnishes an important interpretive research approach that, unlike other approaches,
aims specifically at investigating the causal motors that
drive change through time. Although conventional wisdom and popular mythology hold that all historians
merely seek to reconstruct the past "as it really was,"
professional historical analysis very often moves far beyond just describing what happened (Danto 1965, 1985)
595
? 1993by JOURNALOF CONSUMERRESEARCH,Inc.* Vol. 19 o March1993
All rightsreserved.0093-5301/93/1904-0008$2.00
596
more recently emblazoned their vehicles with one proclaiming "He who dies with the most toys wins!" Historical analysis offers consumer researchers a means to
understand such patterns of change, and the ability to
construct causal accounts explaining how and why such
changes occur. The degree to which this potential has
been realized by consumer researchers is revealed in
the historical literature the discipline has produced to
date, which we review below.
597
598
discussedunder Synthesis:Historical Causes and Explanation,below). Thus, historical method allows for predicting structural change,
and even for the development of situations that will become the contextual causes for specific events, but not for the prediction of those
specific events.
FIGURE 1
GOALS OF HISTORICALRESEARCH
Ti
T2
A
-
E
-
599
Stage I: ResearchDesign
Historians work under an important research constraint. Like paleontologists, criminal investigators,
geologists, financial auditors, and war correspondents,
no historian can create raw data. All historical data are
found in the record of what really happened. Therefore,
historical question framing and research procedures
follow from historical data, whereas in science-based
disciplines questions are asked and procedures selected
before data collection begins. For those who take the
scientific method as their research model, adjusting research questions after beginning data collection is unthinkable; for the historian such adjustments constitute
the basis for research design.
Question Framing. The key to historical question
framing is found in tailoring successive iterations of
specific research questions to developments in research
results. In the finished narrative the research question
must rise out of the description of what really happened,
and, in the end, success with historical analysis rests on
fitting the research question to that story, just as it does
for the paleontologist or the detective. Theoretically,
historians approach question framing in two direct
ways: deductively (through critical review of the existing
historical literature) and inductively (through direct inspection of primary, or archival, sources). In practice,
however, historians must alternate between critical reviews and archival visits in refining research questions.
Whichever approach generates the first iteration of
the research question, the primary function of that
question is to link the data of the historical record with
the project's interpretive end or research goal. Researchers can address an unlimited number of specific
interpretive ends, but any particular research question
can serve just one of three general goals-theory development, theory testing, or the explanation of anomalies.
Nonhistorians often assume history's most powerful
use lies in theory testing, just as nonbiologists often
assume one key fossil can prove or disprove evolutionary theory. Neither assumption is warranted. The historian, like the evolutionary biologist, can never create
new data; s/he can only find data. Moreover, neither
the historian nor the paleontologist can assume that the
material currently available constitutes all relevant data.
Limited to induction, the historian must confront an
600
JOURNAL OF CONSUMER
RESEARCH
FIGURE2
CONCEPTUALMODELOF HISTORICALMETHOD
I.
RESEARCH DESIGN<o
Question
* Research
II.
frami.ng
procedures
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS
* Investigation
of facts
Discovery
Identification
of historical
facts
* Synthesis
of causal
Construction
statements
Production
of explanatory
narrative
* Interpretation
inherent paradox: a single counterexample based on tomorrow's newly discovered data can outweigh years of
accumulated confirming instances. Such an epistemological constraint on historical explanation severely restricts its potential in theory testing. In fact, history is
far more powerful as a research tool for explaining the
variance found in anomalous cases-those cases that
violate general patterns in social science theory-and
in providing the preliminary case study material for
developing new theories (Watkins 1959).
Historical question framing links specific data to an
interpretive end. This point is made best in a hypothetical example: assume that a researcher developing
a model to explain the diffusion of new products discovers an anomaly in working-class neighborhoods. In
these neighborhoods, suppose that standard demographics predict the acceptance of innovative products
in some categories-toys, detergents, cosmetics, and
household appliances-but lack predictive value in the
case of tires, sporting goods, and beer. Some workingclass neighborhoods strongly resist new products in
these male-oriented categories while others show rapid
acceptance. The researcher in this situation might well
begin to question why working-class consumers' adoption of innovations should be product specific.
The consumer researcher seeking to apply historical
method to answer this question will progress through
a series of research questions, each linking data to the
interpretive end of explaining the observed anomaly.
The first round of the process might involve a case study
of a particular product, such as Miller Lite beer, to determine whether demographics will explain its acceptance when introduced in the 1970s. Archival data in
the form of beer distributors' sales records will furnish
the answer and may well show that acceptance was
neighborhood specific. Thus, the first question is answered.
The same data might also constitute the basis for a
second research question. Assume the sales records reveal that, in the neighborhoods where acceptance of
Miller Lite was slow, retail sales picked up only after
the brand had developed some momentum in local,
working-class taverns. The second iteration of the research question, might take this form: "What's so special about consumer behavior in taverns?" Once again
the question serves to link data to the interpretive end
601
/h,
--
historical
NOTE-Fj,
Mere
facts;
interpretation;
Icr,HF1,
FX
--
historical
consumer
C,,
research
Mr
Ml
Mt
Motives
deep
''
facts;
HF,
CausesCs
--
interpretation.
structural
I
causes;
cc,
F4
HF2
--|
contextual
Cc
causes;
HFs
~~~Causal
Ct,
Fs
F7
|_
triggering
------
causes;
Mt,
ANALYSIS
1-
I
I
Fs
C,
|----
transparent
Fs
---
motives;
Mu,
Flo
-unconscious
-
Fil
motives;
Mc,
~~~~~~~~~HF4
HF,
,F
conscious
Interpretation
motives;
HISTORICAL
FIGURE
3
Synthesis
Investigation
603
As we will show in the following sections, the investigation stage involves discovering data sources to establish the salient facts of an episode or event. The critical task here is to distinguish between mere facts (those
lacking causal relevance) and the special category of
knowledge historians accept as historical facts (those
bits of knowledge from which we derive causal understanding; Carr 1961). During synthesis-the second
stage in analysis-historians construct causal statements and develop the narrative exposition for ordering
causal priority. With interpretation-the final stage of
analysis-the historian explicates how that causal narrative answers the research question, thus developing
its interpretive significance. This interpretive stage
constitutes the application of historical knowledge in
theory development, theory testing, or the explication
of significant exceptions to generalization.
Investigation: Facts and Historical Facts. Identifying those things that stay the same and those things
that change between two historical moments requires
the historian to determine what really happened in a
historical process, episode, or event. In effect, the historian must begin the investigation with two synchronic
fact-finding missions carried out at the two temporal
termini under consideration (T1 and T2in Fig. 1). These
two characterizations, comparable to snapshots, constitute the starting point for diachronic analysis. The
records of the past, however, offer an infinite number
of facts, from an almost unlimited number of sources,
about most historical moments. Consequently, the first
principle in historical investigation has to be the practice
of selection-the process that narrows the facts from
whatever is available to those appropriate to the question and procedures chosen for the research design.
Facts from the past furnish the raw data for historical
analysis, but the possibilities for uncovering new facts
in documentary remains are so vast that historians differentiate between mere facts and those special historical facts that can contribute to causal explanations of
change. For example, take F1 in Figure 3 as the fact
that the Miller Brewing Company markets a low-calorie
beer under the brand name Lite. This fact can be determined empirically, and is subject to no meaningful
dispute. It shows, however, scant prospect of contributing anything toward answering questions about
whether low-calorie beers caused changes in consumer
tastes and, ultimately, in the structure of the brewing
industry. Investigation involves differentiating between
mere facts such as this and historical facts that can contribute to a causal explanation of change.
The difficulty of this task has fueled more than a halfcentury of theoretical debate among modern professional historians (Levine 1989). The focus of the controversy rests on the question of whether historical facts,
which are the product of investigation, dictate the ultimate interpretation. That is, are the historical facts
selected inductively in developing an interpretation, or
does the interpretation deductively determine the choice
604
historical facts may be applied to a variety of interpretive ends, no relevant fact can be excluded from the
analysis, and those facts that are included must have a
clear and direct relation to the causes of change advanced in the explanation. The selection of relevant
dyadic historical facts moves analysis from investigation
into synthesis.
In developing explanations of change, historians recognize that factors distant in time are necessary to create
an environment in which the focal event can occur but
are insufficient themselves to precipitate it. In the example above, the design of the shopping mall and the
store layout clearly created conditions favorable to an
unplanned purchase. Without the triggerprovided by
the early arrival, however, these factors could not cause
the purchase. Similarly, it could not have occurred in
their absence. These different levels of cause also reflect
the historian's dual concern with those things that stay
the same and those that change. In this hypothetical
example, deep structural causes reflect continuity across
the consumer's several visits to the shopping mall, while
the triggering causes are the things that are unique or
different about the visit when the unplanned purchase
took place.
Explaining change also requires the historian to consider the historical actor's state of mind, or motivation.
Events are not solely a result of environmental or situational factors. They are also shaped by human reactions, and these reactions may be motivated at a
transparent, unconscious, or conscious level-levels
that differ with respect to the actor's degree of selfawareness. Transparent motives, identified as M, in
Figure 3, are so obvious to the actor that they defy explicit acknowledgment. Referring once again to the unplanned purchase example, the customer would be unlikely to say gender motivated him to buy the necktie.
In our culture, the fact that men wear neckties is a
transparent cause of purchase behavior. It is so obvious
that one is probably unaware of it as a behavioral determinant, and one would be unlikely, therefore, to
think to mention it.
Unconscious motives, Mu, derive from impersonal
social forces. Unlike transparent motives that "just are,"
unconscious motives arise from social circumstances
that do not necessarily have to stand as they. are, but of
which the individual may not be consciously aware at
the time an act occurs. Such unconscious motives might
be likened to unreflected experience (Thompson, Locander, and Pollio 1989) in that they constitute a ground
against which behavior is the figure.
In the consumer context, for example, advertising
creates perceptions that can motivate an actor without
conscious awareness. Assume, for instance, that the
man's unplanned purchase was of a brand of necktie
with an upscale image created by an aggressive advertising campaign. In selecting that brand rather than
other, less prestigious offerings, he may have been unaware of a status-seeking motive even though he might
acknowledge in the abstract that advertising and other
marketing strategies affect his behavior.
Conscious motives, Mc, constitute a third level. Similar to reflected experience (Thompson et al. 1989), these
are the motives of which the actor is aware during de-
605
cision making. Jn the example of an unplanned purchase, the customer will likely refer to tangible attributes
such as a sale price as the motivation for choosing a
specific tie in preference to others. Because the actor is
aware of these motives, they exert the most direct effect
on the decision about how to act. While transparent
and unconscious motives, like deep structural and contextual causes, are necessary for an event, they are more
continuous through time and less avoidable or controllable by the individual actor.
The historian's primary tasks of identifying and explaining change, then, become something more than a
straightforward sorting of phenomena into categories
of continuity and change. That sorting completes the
first task of identifying change but only sets the stage
for the higher-order goal of explanation. Here, the historian must develop an analysis incorporating deep
structural, contextual, and trigger causes while simultaneously considering the actor's transparent, unconscious, and conscious motivations. During the synthesis
stage of analysis, the historian has nine possible categories of cause from which to construct an explanatory
narrative.
Historical explanations of change involve causal
statements such as "Economic dominance of big business (deep structural cause and transparent motivation),
a rapidly growing middle class (contextual cause and
unconscious motivation), and the muckrakers' desire
to expose unsanitary conditions in the meat packing
industry (triggering cause and conscious motivation)
all combined to create the consumer movement in early
twentieth-century America." As this example implies,
the construction of unitary causal statements such as
this does not complete the historian's analysis. The
complexity of human activity is such that no single
causal statement will explain an episode as sweeping as
the consumer movement (or, for that matter, one as
minor as the individual consumer's decision to purchase
a new item of clothing). The nature of historical processes requires manifold causal statements woven into
an overall explanatory narrative (Megill 1989).
In synthesizing such an explanation, the historian
walks a narrow path between projecting an artificially
simplified structure on a multiplicity of causes and overstating their inherent complexity. Historical causes
exhibit interactions and interdependences that cannot
be ignored if one is to avoid sterile, mechanistic explanations. Fischer (1970, p. 179) discusses this problem
as follows:
Imaginethat an effect E was caused by A, B, C, and D.
If all of these four causal componentswere necessaryto
that effect, then the removal of any one of them would
not diminish E by one-fourth.Its absence would make
E impossible. On the other hand, it is easy to imagine
that A, B, C, and D, though not individuallynecessary
to E, neverthelessinteracted in a geometrical ratio. If
therewere only A, then E would be of a magnitude 1. If
therewere only A and B, then the effectwould be not 2
but 22, or an E of magnitude4. A, B, and C wouldproduce
606
CONTRIBUTIONS OF HISTORICAL
RESEARCH TO CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR
Historical method offers important opportunities for
investigating many dynamic and volatile consumer
phenomena. In large part, current knowledge of how
consumers behave in the marketplace consists of unrelated still photos depicting consumers at isolated times
and places. Historical analysis provides the methodological tools needed to integrate these snapshots into
interpretive accounts that will enhance our understanding of the processes that produce changes in consumer behavior. Historical analysis can augment our
considerable social science knowledge about ongoing
or stable patterns in consumer behavior and allow us
to analyze patterns of change, understand volatile episodes, and establish causal linkages between such episodes.
The potential contributions of historical research to
explanations of consumer behavior follow from its interpretive ends. Historical research designs can be
turned to theory development, theory testing, or to the
explanation of anomalous behavior. Obviously, in each
of these uses, historical method stands as only one alternative among a variety of research strategies, and its
advantages need to be gauged against its potential contributions to the discipline's larger research framework.
In weighing these advantages, two strengths-one conceptual and one practical-stand out as particularly attractive to consumer researchers.
Conceptually, historical method offers significant
advantages in dealing with consumer phenomena where
APPENDIX
Analyses of change:
Hendon and Muhs 1985
Fullerton 1988
Arnould 1989
Droge, Germaine, and Halstead 1990
Mittlestaedt 1990
Morris 1990
Stern 1990a
Witkowski 1990a
Methodology:
Firat 1987
Fullerton 1987
Kumcu 1987
Pollay 1987
Rassuli and Hollander 1987
Lavin and Archdeacon 1989
a
The stated purpose of these papers was methodological; the authors introduced new methods of doing
historical research. The papers are classified as analyses
of change, however, because the examples used to demonstrate these methods provided causal answers to
questions about historical change.
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