Max

Nim
Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Modelo_nio_01_(25-30)
Pares
Presio/par
480
18
240
18
Ventas
8513
8258
4463
4618
8224
5989
8425
5381
8199
8481
5942
5268
8517
8526
5660
5789
8445
7278
5545
5188
5878
6448
4422
4962

8640
4320

Max
Nim
Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Modelo_nio_02_(25-30)
Pares
Presio/par
420
19.5
180
19.5
Venta
3673
4774
7379
6682
4305
4754
4702
5919
5848
6902
5223
5186
5933
8179
7014
4471
8138
5791
8092
4725
8150
3718
3602
7341

8190
3510

Modelo_nio_01_(25-30)

Ao

Periodos

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Sumatoria y promedio de los datos reales

Sumatoria

300

Promedio

12.5

Clculo factor estacional para

Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.22456557
Coeficiente d 0.0504297
R^2 ajustado 0.00726741
Error tpico
744.785579
Observacione
24
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Regresin
1 648103.58
Residuos
22 12203522.3
Total
23 12851625.9
Coeficientes Error tpico
Intercepcin 6897.53659 313.815766
Variable X 1 -23.7395942 21.9625285

_(25-30)

Constantes
0.2
0.1
0.3

Demanda
Estimado
Demanda
desestacionalizad revisado del nivel
(zapatos pares)
a (D med)
(Lt)

8513
8258
4463
4618
8224
5989
8425
5381
8199
8481
5942
5268
8517
8526
5660
5789
8445
7278
5545
5188
5878
6448
4422
4962
5012
4919
4827
4734
4642
4549
4457
4364
4272
4179
4087
3994

edio de los datos reales

158419.00

6599.24
6495.39
5820.28
5858.07
6513.28
5959.47
7961.58
6721.33
7689.12
7499.67
7568.87
6798.23
6602.34
6706.19
7381.31
7343.52
6688.31
7242.11
5240.00
6480.25
5512.46
5701.91
5632.71
6403.35

6897.54
6818.89
6724.53
6057.94
5603.20
5986.51
5786.29
6086.53
5733.73
5995.43
6184.27
5882.62
5561.28
5925.72
6126.99
5789.54
5580.39
5904.28
5895.30
5603.31
5341.91
5286.31
5342.83
5009.06
4877.38
4788.97
4700.55
4612.13
4523.72
4435.30
4346.88
4258.46
4170.05
4081.63
3993.21
3904.80

Tendencia (Tt)

Factor Estacional
estimado (St)

Pronstico (Ft)

-23.74
-29.23
-35.74
-98.83
-134.42
-82.65
-94.40
-54.94
-84.73
-50.08
-26.19
-53.74
-80.50
-36.00
-12.28
-44.79
-61.23
-22.72
-21.34
-48.41
-69.71
-68.30
-55.81
-83.61
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42
-88.42

1.29
1.28
1.26
1.10
1.02
1.13
1.10
1.18
1.11
1.19
1.24
1.17
1.11
1.20
1.26
1.18
1.13
1.22
1.23
1.16
1.10
1.10
1.13
1.06
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05

8867.18
8674.00
8445.83
6584.19
5581.87
6651.30
6256.12
7145.35
6274.92
7062.03
7653.82
6837.59
6057.99
7096.58
7710.04
6755.35
6260.70
7194.01
7204.78
6418.55
5800.41
5759.17
5998.93
5216.53
5012
4919
4827
4734
4642
4549
4457
4364
4272
4179
4087
3994

6600.792

lculo factor estacional para Dmed

St(Pronostico)

17030.00
16784
10123
10407
16669
13267
13970
10569
14077
14929
10364
10230

8515
8392
5061.5
5203.5
8334.5
6633.5
6985
5284.5
7038.5
7464.5
5182
5115

1.29
1.27
0.77
0.79
1.26
1.00
1.06
0.80
1.07
1.13
0.79
0.77

Promedio de los cuadradosF

Valor crtico de F
648103.58 1.16837405 0.29144274
554705.559

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
21.9795732 1.8371E-016 6246.72253 7548.35066 6246.72253 7548.35066
-1.08091353 0.29144274 -69.2870906 21.8079023 -69.2870906 21.8079023

Error (Et)

354.18
416.00
3982.83
1966.19
-2642.13
662.30
-2168.88
1764.35
-1924.08
-1418.97
1711.82
1569.59
-2459.01
-1429.42
2050.04
966.35
-2184.30
-83.99
1659.78
1230.55
-77.59
-688.83
1576.93
254.53

MAD

354.18
416.00
3982.83
1966.19
2642.13
662.30
2168.88
1764.35
1924.08
1418.97
1711.82
1569.59
2459.01
1429.42
2050.04
966.35
2184.30
83.99
1659.78
1230.55
77.59
688.83
1576.93
254.53

rior 95,0%

Modelo_nio_02_(25-30)

Constantes

Ao

Periodos

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Demanda
Estimado
Demanda
desestacionalizad revisado del nivel
(zapatos pares)
a (D med)
(Lt)

3673
4774
7379
6682
4305
4754
4702
5919
5848
6902
5223
5186
5933
8179
7014
4471
8138
5791
8092
4725
8150
3718
3602
7341
5233
5268
5302
5336
5371
5405
5440
5474
5509
5543
5577
5612

Sumatoria y promedio de los datos reales

Sumatoria

300

140501.00

4476.89
4315.29
6002.67
7014.76
4050.85
5278.50
4303.03
6510.91
4891.47
7609.37
6929.53
4847.12
7231.53
7393.12
5705.75
4693.65
7657.57
6429.91
7405.39
5197.51
6816.94
4099.05
4778.89
6861.30

5329.85
5371.80
5413.74
5455.69
5497.64
5539.59
5581.54
5623.49
5665.44
5707.39
5749.34
5791.28
5833.23
5875.18
5917.13
5959.08
6001.03
6042.98
6084.93
6126.88
6168.83
6210.77
6252.72
6294.67
6336.62
6378.57
6420.52
6462.47
6504.42
6546.37
6588.32
6630.26
6672.21
6714.16
6756.11
6798.06

Promedio

12.5

5854.208

Clculo factor estacional para Dmed

Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

St(Pronostico)

14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36

9606.00
12953
14393
11153
12443
10545
12794
10644
13998
10620
8825
12527

4803
6476.5
7196.5
5576.5
6221.5
5272.5
6397
5322
6999
5310
4412.5
6263.5

0.82
1.11
1.23
0.95
1.06
0.90
1.09
0.91
1.20
0.91
0.75
1.07

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.23557256
Coeficiente d 0.05549443
R^2 ajustado 0.01256236
Error tpico
1251.2279
Observacione
24
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresin
1 2023673.38 2023673.38 1.2926102
Residuos
22 34442567.7 1565571.26
Total
23 36466241.1

Intercepcin
Variable X 1

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad

5329.84622 527.205484 10.1096183 9.8959E-010
41.9489688 36.8966979 1.13693017 0.26779991

Constantes
0.2
0.1
0.3
Tendencia (Tt)

Factor Estacional
estimado (St)

Pronstico (Ft)

Error (Et)

MAD

41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95
41.95

0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82

4407.21
4441.63
4476.04
4510.46
4544.88
4579.29
4613.71
4648.13
4682.54
4716.96
4751.38
4785.79
4820.21
4854.62
4889.04
4923.46
4957.87
4992.29
5026.71
5061.12
5095.54
5129.96
5164.37
5198.79
5233
5268
5302
5336
5371
5405
5440
5474
5509
5543
5577
5612

734.21
-332.37
-2902.96
-2171.54
239.88
-174.71
-88.29
-1270.87
-1165.46
-2185.04
-471.62
-400.21
-1112.79
-3324.38
-2124.96
452.46
-3180.13
-798.71
-3065.29
336.12
-3054.46
1411.96
1562.37
-2142.21

734.21
332.37
2902.96
2171.54
239.88
174.71
88.29
1270.87
1165.46
2185.04
471.62
400.21
1112.79
3324.38
2124.96
452.46
3180.13
798.71
3065.29
336.12
3054.46
1411.96
1562.37
2142.21

Valor crtico de F
0.26779991

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
4236.48897 6423.20348 4236.48897 6423.20348
-34.5700992 118.468037 -34.5700992 118.468037

Max
Nim
Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Modelo_nia_01_(25-30)
Pares
Presio/par
420
20.3
180
20.3
Ventas
8087
8191
6146
5939
6986
7515
4141
4930
5115
5107
4938
4425
8062
6267
6616
6306
5622
6641
4761
7397
8322
4771
5208
5152

8526
3654

Max
Nim
Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Modelo_nia_02_(25-30)
Pares
Presio/par
360
21.8
120
21.8
Venta
4590
6209
6861
3845
5828
6438
7004
6856
3970
2961
6458
7788
2639
5389
3671
5544
3211
4619
5722
5414
2930
4025
2860
3167

7848
2616

Modelo_nia_01_(25-30)

Constantes

Ao

Periodos

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Demanda
Demanda
desestacionalizad
(zapatos pares)
a (D med)

8087
8191
6146
5939
6986
7515
4141
4930
5115
5107
4938
4425
8062
6267
6616
6306
5622
6641
4761
7397
8322
4771
5208
5152
6223
6388
6561
6741
6928
7123
7326
7538
7758
7987
8224
8472

Sumatoria y promedio de los datos reales

Sumatoria

300

146645.00

6119.67
6923.33
5885.18
5927.08
6771.24
6487.46
5684.65
4887.37
4651.89
6318.05
5947.61
5646.38
6100.75
5297.09
6335.24
6293.34
5449.17
5732.96
6535.77
7333.04
7568.53
5902.37
6272.81
6574.04

Estimado revisado
del nivel (Lt)

5839.87
5922.69
6011.81
6091.46
6177.70
6281.25
6396.18
6487.92
6596.69
6716.44
6844.71
6979.49
7116.60
7312.02
7483.57
7666.98
7854.13
8041.83
8252.55
8447.79
8690.97
8951.50
9172.70
9412.91
9664.97
9946.75
10241.29
10549.02
10870.38
11205.82
11555.82
11920.87
12301.50
12698.24
13111.64
13542.28

Promedio

12.5

6110.208

Clculo factor estacional para Dmed

Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

St(Pronostico)

14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36

16149.00
14458
12762
12245
12608
14156
8902
12327
13437
9878
10146
9577

8074.5
7229
6381
6122.5
6304
7078
4451
6163.5
6718.5
4939
5073
4788.5

1.32
1.18
1.04
1.00
1.03
1.16
0.73
1.01
1.10
0.81
0.83
0.78

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.22291109
Coeficiente d 0.04968936
R^2 ajustado 0.00649342
Error tpico
683.81645
Observacione
24
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresin
1 537897.511 537897.511 1.1503247025
Residuos
22 10287308.6 467604.937
Total
23 10825206.1

Intercepcin
Variable X 1

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad

5839.86799 288.126393 20.2684243 1.008206E-015
21.6272274 20.164647 1.07253191 0.2951058199

Constantes
0.01
0.1
0.3
Tendencia (Tt)

Factor Estacional
estimado (St)

Pronstico (Ft)

Error (Et)

MAD

21.63
27.75
33.88
38.46
43.24
49.27
55.84
59.43
64.36
69.90
75.74
81.64
87.19
98.01
105.37
113.17
120.57
127.28
135.62
141.59
151.75
162.62
168.48
175.65
183.30
193.14
203.28
213.73
224.49
235.59
247.03
258.83
271.01
283.58
296.56
309.97

1.32
1.33
1.34
1.24
1.16
1.14
1.15
1.00
0.92
0.87
0.84
0.80
0.74
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.84
0.80
0.80
0.73
0.76
0.81
0.73
0.67
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.61
0.61

7745.83
7941.82
8119.42
7618.21
7206.11
7245.37
7443.28
6540.95
6151.61
5937.59
5787.50
5632.34
5366.06
6314.80
6433.65
6631.12
6678.70
6502.36
6698.75
6253.84
6764.65
7422.55
6782.82
6465.27
6223
6388
6561
6741
6928
7123
7326
7538
7758
7987
8224
8472

-341.17
-249.18
1973.42
1679.21
220.11
-269.63
3302.28
1610.95
1036.61
830.59
849.50
1207.34
-2695.94
47.80
-182.35
325.12
1056.70
-138.64
1937.75
-1143.16
-1557.35
2651.55
1574.82
1313.27

341.17
249.18
1973.42
1679.21
220.11
269.63
3302.28
1610.95
1036.61
830.59
849.50
1207.34
2695.94
47.80
182.35
325.12
1056.70
138.64
1937.75
1143.16
1557.35
2651.55
1574.82
1313.27

Valor crtico de F
0.29510582

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
5242.33042 6437.40556 5242.33042 6437.40556
-20.1916909 63.4461458 -20.1916909 63.4461458

Modelo_nia_02_(25-30)

Constantes

Ao

Periodos

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Demanda
Estimado
Demanda
desestacionalizad revisado del nivel
(zapatos pares)
a (D med)
(Lt)

4590
6209
6861
3845
5828
6438
7004
6856
3970
2961
6458
7788
2639
5389
3671
5544
3211
4619
5722
5414
2930
4025
2860
3167
4051
4182
4321
4469
4627
4795
4974
5163
5363
5575
5798
6035

Sumatoria y promedio de los datos reales

Sumatoria

300

117999.00

6243.55
5264.24
6405.80
4026.93
6340.10
5725.46
5411.92
5494.44
5657.68
4167.80
6815.10
6990.54
3589.70
4569.01
3427.45
5806.32
3493.15
4107.79
4421.33
4338.81
4175.57
5665.45
3018.15
2842.71

6161.50
6124.35
6121.21
6134.38
6122.98
6148.36
6191.94
6252.29
6321.62
6374.15
6428.36
6540.64
6679.00
6770.70
6909.82
7040.40
7212.51
7365.66
7555.95
7779.20
8011.52
8222.26
8468.10
8710.32
8976.57
9281.78
9608.60
9957.91
10330.64
10727.74
11150.28
11599.34
12076.09
12581.76
13117.65
13685.14

Promedio

12.5

4916.625

Clculo factor estacional para Dmed

Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

St(Pronostico)

14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36

7229.00
11598
10532
9389
9039
11057
12726
12270
6900
6986
9318
10955

3614.5
5799
5266
4694.5
4519.5
5528.5
6363
6135
3450
3493
4659
5477.5

0.74
1.18
1.07
0.95
0.92
1.12
1.29
1.25
0.70
0.71
0.95
1.11

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de0.57639489
Coeficiente d 0.33223106
R^2 ajustado 0.30187793
Error tpico
1020.81635
Observacione
24
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresin
1 11405962.5 11405962.5 10.9455278
Residuos
22 22925452.2 1042066.01
Total
23 34331414.7
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad
Intercepcin 6161.50377 430.121463 14.3250321 1.2360E-012
Variable X 1 -99.5903019 30.1022318 -3.3084026 0.00319768

Constantes
0.01
0.2
0.3
Tendencia (Tt)

Factor Estacional
estimado (St)

Pronstico (Ft)

Error (Et)

MAD

-99.59
-87.10
-70.31
-53.61
-45.17
-31.06
-16.13
-0.84
13.20
21.06
27.69
44.61
63.36
69.03
83.05
92.55
108.46
117.40
131.98
150.23
166.65
175.47
189.54
200.08
213.31
231.69
250.72
270.44
290.89
312.14
334.22
357.19
381.10
406.01
431.99
459.09

0.74
0.74
0.82
0.91
0.83
0.86
0.92
0.98
1.01
0.89
0.76
0.83
0.93
0.77
0.77
0.70
0.72
0.63
0.63
0.66
0.66
0.57
0.54
0.48
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.43

4456.47
4464.25
4973.35
5538.83
5020.29
5276.60
5655.32
6108.13
6393.80
5713.27
4929.46
5470.29
6279.12
5258.63
5399.59
4971.21
5259.78
4742.02
4820.20
5229.88
5433.74
4803.50
4701.04
4264.51
4051
4182
4321
4469
4627
4795
4974
5163
5363
5575
5798
6035

-133.53
-1744.75
-1887.65
1693.83
-807.71
-1161.40
-1348.68
-747.87
2423.80
2752.27
-1528.54
-2317.71
3640.12
-130.37
1728.59
-572.79
2048.78
123.02
-901.80
-184.12
2503.74
778.50
1841.04
1097.51

133.53
1744.75
1887.65
1693.83
807.71
1161.40
1348.68
747.87
2423.80
2752.27
1528.54
2317.71
3640.12
130.37
1728.59
572.79
2048.78
123.02
901.80
184.12
2503.74
778.50
1841.04
1097.51

Valor crtico de F
0.00319768

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
5269.48646 7053.52109 5269.48646 7053.52109
-162.01851 -37.1620941 -162.01851 -37.1620941