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On June 10, the US House Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and the Global
Environment called a hearing on "Thailand: The Path toward
Reconciliation."
Emphasis on Thailand's political divisions between the Red Shirts and the
royalists, for example, have the potential to sweep under the carpet the
ongoing unrest in the three southern majority-Muslim provinces, which
could thus slide toward more anarchy. This could affect Malaysia.
They could also lead to heightened tensions with Cambodia over disputed
territories as different parties of the political context may play the
nationalist card to win favor, as they did over the Preah Vihear temple last
year. This would contradict all of the Asean premises of solving conflict
peacefully and by consent.
For the US, Thailand is a key strategic ally in the region and what happens
in Bangkok thus reverberates in some quarters in Washington, where
policymakers are wary of the well-documented inroads of China in
Southeast Asia.
But geopolitics ought to be based on foresight and long-term planning, and
the message that the US hearing sends is one of narrow, immediate
interests similar to those sent by the previous US administration of George
W Bush when it failed to condemn the coup against former Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006. At that time, most analysts said that, since
Thaksin was a threat to the Bangkok elite, he thus was also a threat to
American interests.
The US hearing is taking the same pro-elite stance. The danger is that it
could be another big mistake, unhelpful for Thailand and counterproductive
for the US.
There is a widely held notion that Thailand is a bitterly divided society and
Abhisit has a difficult job. Yet, most observers also agree that the country
needs to find a new equilibrium between the demands of the color-coded
groups that have taken it to the brink of civil war. In short, the status quo is
over and attempts to maintain it could increase the social and political
pressure as a prelude to it exploding again, in whatever forms that may
take, in the near future.
That plan calls on all parties to join together in upholding the monarchy, on
the government to carry out economic and political reforms, and on the
nation to create an independent committee to investigate the casualties
resulting from recent clashes, all with the aim of holding new elections on
November 14, 2010.
He added that "The plan offers a process that I believe can serve as the
basis for an amicable end to the dispute. H.Res.1321 [the Subcommittee
hearing] is meant to encourage that process, to demonstrate America 's
commitment to Thailand and its people and to convey our sincere hope
that Thailand returns to democracy, stability and the rule of law."
Abhisit on June 6 announced that the state of emergency over the country
was extended indefinitely. Imposed on April 7, the state of emergency
empowered the Thai military to restore order and allow the government to
impose curfews, ban public gatherings of more than five people, and
censor and ban media from disseminating news that "causes panic."
Human rights groups say hundreds of activists have been detained without
trial, including several accused by the military of plotting against the
crown.
On the matter, the decision of US Assistant State Secretary for East Asia
and the Pacific Kurt Campbell to meet with some supporters of the Red
Shirt movement while stopping briefly in Bangkok on May 9 was a positive
sign. To the ire of the current Thai government, he met with Chaturon
Chaisaeng, the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party's former leader and
Noppadon Pattama, legal adviser of Thaksin. He correctly said that "he
wanted to hear what they thought of Abhisit's roadmap."