SHARED DATABASE OF

ACCIDENT SEQUENCE
PRECURSORS
IN LIGHT OF
DEEPWATER HORIZON
DISASTER
PhDs.NeaguIonutDragos
MWSConsultant
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NUCLEARvsOFFSHOREOIL&GAS

THREE MILE ISLAND PLANT

PIPER ALPHA OFFSHORE DISASTER

FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR DISASTER

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DEEPWATER HORIZON FIRE

ACCIDENTOCCURRENCEMODEL
Accidentsoccurwhen
combinationofevents
buildsapatternthat
defencesystemsfailto
mitigate.Itisoftenused
similaritybetweenSwiss
cheesevs.riskmanagement
systems,holesbeingthe
precursorspathand
apparentlayersofcheese
variouslayersofdefence.
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DRILLINGGENERICEVENTTREE

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OBJECTIVESOFPROGRAM
toidentifyandquantitativelyestimatetherisk
significanceofoperationalevents;
todeterminethegenericimplicationsofoperational
eventsandcharacterizeriskinsightsfromthese
events;
toprovidesupplementalinformationonplant
specificperformance;
toprovideacheckonPRAs(probabilisticrisk
analysis);
toprovideaneffectiveindicationofindustryriskand
associatedtrends.
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DATAMANAGEMENT
Longtermdata
gatheringofthisdatabase
couldalsobeusedto
foreseeandmitigatesome
oftheriskfromdesign
phasethroughbetter
engineeringandimproved
buildingphilosophy.
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DATABASECONSTRUCTION

Inputofspecialistsisrequiredtodevelophypothesisof
precursorscollectedduringinspections,audits,safety
evaluationandspecificproject/operationrisk
assessments.
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GOALS OFASPDATABASEPROGRAM
Identificationofprecursorsimpact
Prioritizeorrankprecursors
Providetheresultstotheindustrytobeincorporated
indesign,operationormaintenance
Periodicupdatewithtechnologicaldevelopment,
newregulationsandhandsonexperience
Uselatestriskmodelstoevaluateconsequences
Adaptcontingencymeasuresattheindustrylevel

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CHARACTERISTICOFPROGRAM
Mustbemanagedbyanrecognisedauthorityinthe
industry
Opentocontributorsandaccesscontrolledfor
sensitiveinformation
Abletodetermine,provideandcorrelatewiththe
trendofindustry
Systemmustaddresstherisksaccordingtotheir
ranking
Permanenthumancontrolandverificationmustbe
performed
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TYPICALPRECURSOR

http://www.rwe.com

Blindshearramfailure
Linkedprecursors:
Valvefailure
Pistonfailure
Rubbersealfailure
Electricalcommand
systemfailure
UKHSEcontingencyisto
doubleRAMby
regulation.
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CONCLUSIONS&
RECOMMENDATIONS
Withdeepwaterexplorationoperationalriskwill
increaseanddiversify
Offshoreoil&gasexplorationmustuseexperience
fromotherriskyindustries(aviation,nuclear)
CreateanASPdatabaseandprograminterface
makesastepforwardforanunifiedinternational
safetyregulation

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PERSONALINFORMATION
NEAGUIONUTDRAGOS
PhDs.NavalArchitect
MWSCONSULTANT
PHONE:+40745518933
EMAIL1:dragos.neagu@glgroup.com
EMAIL2: office@rosinav.com
WEB:www.glnobledenton.com
WEB:www.rosinav.com
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