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NCAV Defined
Graham first discussed net current asset value (NCAV) in the 1934
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uncertainty and indifference. The
number of companies trading below
net current asset value again spiked
during the post-war period from
1947 to 1950. However, this time,
high earnings forced working capital
levels above lagging stock prices.
However, the market once again
ignored these bargain issues.
Graham and Dodd pointed out,
however, that when stocks trade
below the companys net current asset level they are, in effect,
trading below the companys liquidating value. Assuming a companys
working capital is conservatively
stated, it is reasonable to assume
that most companies can be sold off
for at least the value of these assets.
Furthermore, they felt it was also reasonable to expect that the companys
remaining assetsplant, property,
equipment and other miscellaneous
assetswould fetch enough to
offset shrinkage in current assets
resulting from converting them into
cash.
Using net current assets as a proxy
for liquidating value, Graham and
Dodd were able to create an actual
relationship between the market price
of a stock and the realizable value of
a companys assets. When they found
companies trading well below their
liquidating values, they bought them
in bulk.
Risks of Undervalued
Stocks
Graham and Dodd were keenly
aware that some investments in lowprice-to-NCAV stocks would fail. In
Security Analysis, they suggested
two possible reasons why buying
stocks below net current asset value
may fail:
1) Changing intrinsic value; or
2) Market behavior.
The market-behavior problem, as
they termed it, relates to the fact that
there is nothing that says that a stock
price must adjust to the value an
analyst places on it. The authors also
argue that intrinsic value is always
changing based on the development
of the businessearnings, dividends,
etc. Therefore, if a company trading
below net current asset value loses
money or substantially reduces its
working capital, its intrinsic value
will likely be less than it was when
it was initially evaluated. As a result
of this decline in intrinsic value, the
stock may no longer be undervalued
and, in fact, may now be overvalued.
Graham and Dodd felt that, given
the markets reaction to stocks selling
below net current asset value, inves-
Screening on NCAV
Table 1 summarizes the Graham
approach to NCAV stock selection. Now that we have defined his
requirement for buying stocks based
on net current asset value, we turn
our attention to finding stocks that
meet that requirement. The easiest
and quickest way to identify companies sharing similar financial characteristics is by using either a Web- or
software-based screening tool. We
used AAIIs Stock Investor Pro fundamental stock screening and research
database to develop our Graham
NCAV screen. As of February 5,
2010, the Stock Investor database
consisted of 9,905 companies traded
on U.S. exchanges.
Grahams NCAV approach begins
by identifying stocks trading at a
discount to the companys net current
asset value per share; specifically,
at least one-third below net current
asset value.
We are not aware of any screening
services that allow you to screen for
this specific criterion. However, with
Stock Investor Pro, you can create
custom fields that you can then use in
the screening process. Therefore, we
created a custom field that deducts
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Universe of Stocks
No restrictions. By their nature, however, the stocks typically
passing this screen are small-capitalization stocks, or even
micro-caps.
Primary Criteria
Bargain price with a margin of safety: Price no more than twothirds the companys net current asset value.
Secondary Factors
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Passing Companies
Table 5 lists the 21 companies
passing the Graham NCAV screen as
of February 5, 2010. The number of
companies selling at a sub-currentasset basis will rise and fall depending on the market. In Security
Analysis, Graham and Dodd wrote
that they used this number as a buy
and sell signal: When the number
was large (many firms selling on the
Due Diligence
At this point, I feel it is extremely
important to stress that the listing in
Table 5 is not intended to be a buy
or recommended list. Stocks meeting
the Graham NCAV screen require additional due diligence before adding
them to your investment portfolio.
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Table 4. Graham NCAV Criteria for Use With AAIIs Stock Investor Pro
Data Category
Custom Fields*
Income Statement - Annual
Cash Flow - Annual
Ratios
Company Information
Company Information
Company Information
Field
Operator
Factor
Current Financials
Liquidity
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.12
0.01
0.01
0.40
0.84
0.04
0.32
0.02
0.12
0.12
1.40
6.10
1.83
0.22
0.97
1.75
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.18
0.33
0.36
0.36
0.37
0.54
0.55
0.59
0.61
0.63
nmf nmf
nmf nmf
nmf nmf
nmf nmf
0.03 0.1
0.05 0.9
0.05 0.1
0.01 nmf
0.11 0.4
0.09 2.3
0.06 0.2
0.12 2.1
0.22 2.0
0.22 6.0
0.39 0.6
0.32 8.8
0.40 46.9
0.36 1.1
0.31 1.0
0.57 8.8
0.25 4.2
na
14.5
27.6
40.6
44.2
72.4
0.0
(24.5)
67.9
(23.6)
na
31.1
na
(15.7)
32.4
(17.6)
(8.3)
(42.7)
(14.0)
(19.4)
(17.7)
Total
Price
Liab to
as % of
Total
Market 52-Wk
Assets
Cap
High
(%)
($ Mil)
(%) Description
27.9
40.3
19.6
32.2
16.2
39.0
11.4
18.9
13.6
15.7
26.9
35.6
15.3
11.9
0.0
25.0
15.9
44.6
40.8
10.6
17.8
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
3.9
0.1
0.1
8.6
35.0
1.2
1.7
2.5
3.4
0.7
2.7
12.9
58.5
1.1
4.2
7.1
nmf
0
9
33
10
31
20
17
13
56
4
13
67
100
12
100
88
52
24
81
35
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trading below NCAV are very small
in terms of market capitalization and
trading volume. Of the 456 companies whose price is two-thirds or
less of NCAV, over 90% trade on
the Over the Counter Bulletin Board
(OTCBB) or on the pink sheets.
Since such an overwhelming number
of the current low price-to-NCAV
stocks trade over the counter, we
chose not to exclude them from our
Graham NCAV screen.
When a companys stock trades
over-the-counter, it usually means
that the company is too small to
meet exchange listing requirements.
Looking at the companies that passed
our Graham NCAV screen in Table5,
we see that the market caps for these
companies range from $0 for S&K
Famous Brands (SKFBQ) to $58.5
million for Spectrum Group International (SPGZ). Even AAIIs Model
Shadow Stock Portfolio, which
invests in micro-cap stocks, sets a
minimum market cap floor of $17
million.
Low market-cap stocks often also
have low trading volume, sometimes making it difficult for even an
individual investor to accumulate a
meaningful number of shares without
moving the stock price. In this case,
we borrow a rule used with the AAII
Shadow Stock Portfolio: The average
daily number of shares traded should
be four times the amount needed for
the position. Otherwise, it may be
too difficult to get in and out of the
position quickly.
For example, if I had $5,000 to
invest in Boss Holdings, Inc. (BSHI),
I would be able to buy roughly
820 shares at its February 5, 2010,
closing price of $6.10. Therefore,
I would like to see BSHI trade at
Conclusion
Benjamin Graham made a successful career out of buying lowpriced stocks that offered him a
margin of safety. However, the simplicity of his methodology is equally
impressive. Even he was aware of
this, as he commented in the 1973
edition of The Intelligent Investor:
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