ATTACKS BY GROUP TOP 10

IHS Aerospace, Defence & Security

www.ihs.com/jtic

2016 IHS Global Attack Index

Acts of terrorism, insurgency, and violent protest recorded worldwide by IHS Janes Terrorism and Insurgency Centre in 2016
Sweden

Austria

Poland

Czech Republic

Italy

Denmark

Switzerland

Germany

65

21

Netherlands

Belgium

35

Canada

United States

76

70

Haiti

Jamaica

Honduras

Guatemala

Mexico

France

40

United Kingdom 105

Moldova

China

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Ukraine 4449

202

Kyrgyzstan

Kosovo

15

Turkey 729

904

Tajikistan

Italy

Jordan

22

South Korea

Albania

Syria 7497 6477

Spain

Iraq 3350 8437

Romania

Georgia

Japan

19

Cyprus

Armenia

Lebanon 111
Tunisia

52

37

Gaza & West Bank 231

15

27

Guinea-Bissau

Colombia 156

54

Guinea

Mali 118
Cte dIvoire

Maldives

Yemen 970

1512

Sudan 353

335

Nigeria 226

852

Ethiopia

16

232

Somalia

471

926

Kenya

52

66

Uganda

11

22

Tanzania

2,299 (9%)

Assault

863 (4%)

Ambush

719 (3%)

Raid

663 (3%)

Niger

22

116

Cameroon

69

189

Angola

Congo Brazzaville

12

40

CAR

94

215

Chad

43

Random/Indiscriminate

4,818 (20%)

1,800 (7%)

Other/Unknown

1,639 (7%)

Identity Groups

1,166 (5%)

12

Hong Kong

South Sudan

82

323

Madagascar

JAN
1,761

FEB
1,835

Attacks

MAR
1,874

Wounded

Fatalities

APR

3
257

Malaysia

13

Scope: Transnational Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary

Scope: Local Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Political

A total of 4,236 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, the Islamic
State in open sources in 2016, underlining the groups status as the
most prolific non-state armed group worldwide. Despite ongoing
heavy territorial pressure on the group in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, the
recorded number of attacks increased by 28% from 2015,
highlighting the extent of the groups resistance and ongoing
capabilities, as well as its transition to insurgent operations in
recaptured areas and punitive operations. While Iraq and Syria
accounted for 84% of Islamic State attacks worldwide, this was down
from 92% in 2015, underlining the expanding presence of its affiliates,
in addition to proliferating lone actors operating in the West.

In Yemen, a total of 558 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, Ansar
Allah in open sources in 2016. This made Ansar Allah more commonly
known as the Houthis and previously named Al-Shabab al-Muminin the
sixth most active group recorded worldwide, with the recorded number of
attacks almost doubling from 2015. The rise in attacks underlined the
escalating nature of the conflict between the group and its allies and the
Saudi-backed government-in-exile, with heavy fighting in Taiz governorate
accounting for more than one-quarter of Ansar Allah attacks. The groups
threat also expanded further from Yemen, with almost one-fifth of
operations being cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia, as we as two
anti-ship missile attacks in the Bab al-Mandab strait in October.

2 DONETSK PEOPLES REPUBLIC (DPR)

7 QIWAAT SURIYYA AL-DIMOQRATIYYA (QSD)

Scope: Local Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Separatist

In Ukraine, a total of 3,417 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to,
the pro-Russia separatist Donetsk Peoples Republic (DPR) in open
sources in 2016, making the DPR the second most active group
recorded worldwide. This represented a more than six-fold increase on
the number of attacks recorded in 2015, reflecting the intensification of
the separatist conflict in the east of the country, centred on the oblasts
of Donetsk and Luhansk, particularly following the breakdown of a
ceasefire in September. The 124 fatalities that resulted from these
attacks not only underlined the low-level nature of the violence,
typified by exchanges of fire along a static line-of-contact, but also the
wider lack of verifiable casualty data from the conflict zone.

Scope: Local Orientation: Territorial Objective: Resistance

In Syria, a total of 547 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, the
Qiwaat Suriyya al-Dimoqratiyya (QSD) or Syrian Democratic Forces
in open sources in 2016. This made the QSD the seventh most
active group recorded worldwide. The group is a coalition, led by the
Kurdish Yekneyn Parastina Gel (YPG) which itself separately
conducted at least 110 attacks incorporating small, local Sunni
Muslim groups opposed to the Islamic State. The groups overriding
objective is the recapture of territory held by the Islamic State in
northern Syria, and the QSD has cooperated extensively with the
United States-led coalition to roll back the Islamic States territorial
hold notably capturing the town of Manbij in August.

3 LUHANSK PEOPLES REPUBLIC (LPR)

8 TALIBAN

Scope: Local Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Separatist

In Ukraine, a total of 734 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to,
the pro-Russia separatist Luhansk Peoples Republic (LPR) in open
sources in 2016. This made the LPR the third most active group
recorded worldwide, up from seventh in 2015, alongside a more than
doubling in the number of attacks. While the operational tempo of
LPR forces continued to be comparatively minor alongside the DPR,
the rising level of violence underlined a marked intensification, with
attacks particularly peaking in August and October. This was largely
attributable to ceasefire breakdowns, with attacks again taking the
form of exchanges of fire with the military.

Scope: Domestic Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary

4 JABHAT FATH AL-SHAM

9 HARAKAT AL-SHABAAB AL-MUJAHIDEEN

Scope: Domestic Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary

A total of 687 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, Jabhat Fath
al-Sham which changed its name from Jabhat al-Nusra in July in a
purported break with Al-Qaeda in open sources in 2016. While this
represented a 20% increase in attacks from 2015, the group fell from
second to fourth most active group worldwide. The group, as a
leading part of the Jaish al-Fatah militant Islamist coalition, was
involved in major fighting in and around the city of Aleppo across the
course of the year, particularly the latter half, although government
forces and their allies succeeded in taking full control of the city by
the end of the year.

Scope: Transnational Orientation: Sunni Islamic Objective: Revolutionary

893

Burundi

43

57

Malawi

Mozambique

73

34

Zimbabwe

Zambia

New Zeland

Australia

ATTACKS AND NON-MILITANT FATALITIES BY REGION

Attacks

ASIA

Fatalities

4,042

3,223

Scope: Domestic Orientation: Ethnocultural Objective: Reformist

In Turkey, a total of 585 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to,

Kurdish militant group the Partiya Karkern Kurdistan (PKK) in open
sources in 2016. This made the PKK the fifth most active group
recorded worldwide, up from ninth in 2015, alongside a more than
doubling in attacks from 2015. This represented the continued intensification of the groups insurgency following the collapse of the peace
process in July 2015. While the majority of PKK operations continued
to be asymmetric, rural insurgent operations, the group also notably
developed its urban operational capacities, with prolonged fighting in
multiple urban centres in the southeast, alongside a growing number
of vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks.

ATTACKS BY COUNTRY TOP 10

2015

5,496

Syria

1,113

Ukraine

3,748

Iraq

884

India

RANK 1

1,828

24,202

2,592

3,341

3,173

3,341

2,362

2,563

2,083

2,075

MAY
1,810

39,040

JUN
1,985

JUL
2,038

AFRICA

AUG
2,185

3,535

4,013

4,090

4,355

2,943

2,763

2,418

2,261

4,277

1,914

17,881

1,685

27,697

OCT
2,759

NOV
2,416

361

DEC

3,205

2,849

2,042

1,410

2,500

2,265

2,054

RANK 3

551

Yemen

5,587

1,306

348

Turkey

278

Somalia

666

Pakistan

294

Libya

RANK 14

EGYPT: 4
LIBYA: 30
TUNISIA: 1
GERMANY: 1

3,350

BELGIUM: 2
ALGERIA: 1

1,005

MALI: 3

MILITANT FATALITIES

YEMEN:
TURKEY: 17
LEBANON: 2
SYRIA: 129

40,551

KYRGYZSTAN: 1
RUSSIA: 2

1,004
970
RANK 6

729
RANK 7

471
RANK 8

RANK 6

EUROPE & EURASIA

Scope: Domestic Orientation: Marxist/Maoist Objective: Revolutionary

In India, a total of 355 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to, the
Communist Party of India Maoist (CPI-M) in open sources in 2016.
This made the CPI-M the 10th most active group recorded worldwide,
representing a decrease from 5th in 2015, despite a slight 5% increase
in attacks. Notably, the overall number of attacks in India rose by 14% in
2016, though, underlining the extent to which the group has largely
remained static and maintained its low-level rural insurgency, typified by
asymmetric operations targeting the security forces. The relative lack of
intensity of the insurgency was underlined by the fact that only three of
the 355 recorded attacks caused more than five non-militant fatalities.

RANK 5

RANK 15

2,026

2,504

Afghanistan

10 COMMUNIST PARTY OF INDIA MAOIST (CPI-M)

SUICIDE ATTACKS BY COUNTRY

RANK 4

RANK 11

191

4,449
RANK 2

RANK 7

AMERICAS

SEP

1,185

7,497
RANK 2

RANK 5

13,111

2016
RANK 1

RANK 2

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

In Somalia and Kenya, a total of 388 attacks were claimed by, or

attributed to, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen in open sources in
2016. This made Al-Shabaab the 9th most active group recorded
worldwide, up from 10th in 2015, alongside a 64% increase in attacks.
Across the year, Al-Shabaab put increasing pressure on AMISOM
peacekeeping forces in rural areas, forcing further withdrawals from
bases and towns in southern Somalia and allowing the group to re-establish itself operationally and territorially. Consequently the tempo of
mass-casualty attacks, typically utilising suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIED) in the capital Mogadishu also rose.

5 PARTIYA KARKERN KURDISTAN (PKK)

Rwanda

In Afghanistan, a total of 533 attacks were claimed by, or attributed to,

the Taliban in open sources in 2016. This made the Taliban the eighth
most active group recorded worldwide, notably down from fourth in
2015. Nonetheless, Taliban attacks rose 6% despite violence falling
by 15% in Afghanistan overall, highlighting the continued significant
threat posed by the group. Notably the group failed to seize control of
any provincial capitals across the year, but continued to undermine
government control in key areas of the country, both urban and rural.
The overall threat posed by the group in the coming year will likely be
mitigated somewhat by the Talibans internal divisions and competition from the Islamic States local affiliate.

369

Papua New Guinea

Indonesia

6 ANSAR ALLAH

RANK 4

2,067 (9%)

Commerce & Industry

Libya 363

561

ATTACKS AND NON-MILITANT CASUALTIES

PRIMARY TARGETS 2016

14,561 (60%)

334

Laos

Philippines 332

>1 Year

545 (2%)

Security Forces

Sri Lanka

total non-militant fatalities

Assassination

South Africa

Non-State Armed Groups

3,311 (14%)

Kuwait

19

Hit & Run

45

90

Djibouti

2016

60

Thailand 203

5,903 (24%)

Bangladesh

106

Engagement

Myanmar 135

Ghana

8,945 (37%)

29

167

PRIMARY TACTICS 2016

Nepal

Bhutan

53

total attacks

783

India 1005

18

Frequency of attacks:

Kidnap

Pakistan 414

Burkina Faso

Key

Stand-off/Area Attack

Afghanistan 1004 2352

Egypt 303

DRC 218

Country

25

Venezuela

>1 Quarter

>1 Month

>1 Week

92

Ireland

Senegal

>1 Day

Saudi Arabia 126

15

Uruguay

13

Argentina

Iran

Nicaragua

33

Azerbaijan

12

Chile

23

23

56

51

Finland

Algeria

12

Greece

Russian Federation

Paraguay

13

12

Croatia

FYR Macedonia

Kazakhstan

Bolivia

Morocco

10

Bulgaria

Slovakia

Peru

Bahrain

59

92

Israel

Brazil

Montenegro

1 ISLAMIC STATE

414
RANK 9

363

RANK 10

NIGER: 3
SAUDI
ARABIA: 5
NIGERIA: 36
CAMEROON:
CAMEROON: 14
YEMEN: 37
JORDAN: 1
SOMALIA: 34

INDONESIA: 1
INDIA: 1
PAKISTAN: 21
AFGHANISTAN: 64
IRAQ: 354

www.ihs.com/jtic
2017 IHS: 1685498