Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Technical Supplement 2
Waiting Line Models
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After studying this technical supplement, you should be able to:
1. Explain the importance of waiting line models to service
operations management
2. Give a real example of a decision modeled with waiting
line methods
3. Demonstrate the measures important in waiting line
situations
4. Show how waiting line models can be solved
WAITING LINE SYSTEMS IN SERVICE OPERATIONS
Waiting lines occur throughout our lives, at traffic lights, at
banks (or ATM machines), at restaurants, at theaters. Waiting
lines are concerned with the probabilistic phenomena of
sometimes having to wait for extensive times, at other times
being lucky enough to not have to wait at all.
The expected performance of waiting line systems is very
important in many operations management contexts, especially
in service operations management. Some of the operations
management contexts involving waiting lines are given below:
Assembly line
Arrivals
Components
Queue
Assembly line
Barber shop
Customers
Car wash
Computer center
Automobiles
Jobs to run
Assigned
numbers
Dirty cars in line
Stacked jobs
Machine repair
Breakdowns
Work requests
1
Service Facility
Workers or
machines
Barbers
Car washer
Central Processing
Unit
Mechanics
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
shop
Shipping dock
Ships
Empty or loaded
ships
Lines
Cranes
Switchboard
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Therefore, the rate of arrival is affected by the calling population size. There
are, in fact, a finite number of potential haircut customers for a barber shop.
However, the number of these potential customers is large enough that assuming
an infinite calling population is undetectably different from the actual finite
number, whatever that may be.
Waiting Lines: Waiting lines occur when work arrives for service, but all
service facilities are occupied. Waiting lines are bad in a competitive service
environment, such as fast food. As we noted earlier, if there is a line at a
restaurant, no matter how good the restaurant, most people would think of
alternative eating arrangements. On the other hand, if a factory has invested in
expensive production machinery, it wants to make sure that this machinery has
all the work it can handle. An inventory of raw materials to work on is a waiting
line of a type, paid for by the factory to ensure that the expensive production
machinery is efficiently utilized.
Queue Discipline: When a busy service facility completes a job, and a waiting
line exists, some decision rule is needed to select the next job to be serviced.
The most common decision rule is first-come, first-served (or first-in, first-out FIFO). This decision rule would be conventional when humans were waiting
for service at a restaurant. On the other hand, medical emergency rooms would
use a different decision rule, treating life-threatening cases before those cases
that were not life-threatening. Production facilities might also apply other kinds
of priority systems, such as repairing the equipment most critical to revenue
generation.
Service Facility: The next component of a waiting line system is the service
facility. Service facilities may consist of a number of servers operating in
parallel, such as a row of bank tellers, each available to serve a line of waiting
customers. Service facilities may be sequential, as is often found in production
lines and equipment repair facilities. Service facilities are typically defined in
terms of the number of servers, as well as the distribution of service times.
Service times can follow many different distributions. The normal distribution
is commonly encountered when there is a relatively low variance, such as the
time it takes to cut a head of hair. Some services are exponentially distributed,
in facilities where most work takes very little time, but complications may cause
very long service times on occasion. Erlang service time distribution occurs
when there is a series of exponential activities to be performed serially (with the
restriction that these durations are identically distributed). Some service times
are lognormally distributed, when there is a low average service time that is
distinctly greater than zero, but the possibility of very long service times.
Departures: Once service is completed, jobs depart the waiting line system.
WAITING LINE DECISIONS
Many queuing models have been developed to describe the
operating characteristics of different waiting line systems.
3
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Pn
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Arrival distribution
Service time distribution
Number of servers
Queue discipline
Maximum waiting line length
Number of potential customers in the calling
population
Exponential
Deterministic (constant)
Erlang
General service
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
First-come, first-served
Last-in, first-out
Random service order
General distribution (other decision rules)
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
10
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
1/ = 1/10 hours = 6
minutes
1/ =1/12 hours = 5
= = 10/12 = 0.8333
Average utilization
P0 = 1 - = 1 0.8333 =
Pn = n(1 - )
P1 = (0.8333)1(1-0.8333) =
0.1389
P2 = (0.8333)2(1-0.8333) =
0.1157
P3 = (0.8333)3(1-0.8333) =
0.0965
Lq = /( - )
10(0.8333)/(12 10)
Lq = 10 0.8333/(12 - 10) = 4.1667 customers
L = /( - ) = 10/(12 - 10)
Wq = /( - )
= 0.8333/
(12 10)
= 0.4167 hours, or 25
minutes
11
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
W = 1/( - )
= 1/(12
10)
= 0.5 hours, or 30 minutes
Note that the mean number of customers in the system is equal
to the mean in service (0.8333) plus the mean waiting (4.1667).
Also, the mean time in the system is equal to the mean time of
service (5 minutes) plus the mean waiting time (25 minutes).
This system involves high levels of variance, with both arrivals
and services exponentially distributed. This leads to relatively
long waiting lines on average, as both arrivals and services tend
to suffer exceptionally long times on occasion. The probability
of waiting would be
1 P0 P1 = 1 0.1667 0.1389 = 0.6944.
12
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
(M/D/1):FCFS// Model
This model assumes exponentially distributed arrival rates and
constant service times, with one server. The conventional
assumption of first-come, first-served priority is made, along
with an infinite maximum waiting line and an infinite calling
population. The formulas for the standard queuing measures
for this set of assumptions is:
Inputs
1/ = 1/10 hours = 6
minutes
1/ =1/12 hours = 5
= = 10/12 = 0.8333
Average utilization
P0 = 1 - = 1 0.8333 =
Pn = n(1 - )
P1 = (0.8333)1(1-0.8333) =
0.1389
P2 = (0.8333)2(1-0.8333) =
0.1157
P3 = (0.8333)3(1-0.8333) =
0.0965
Lq = 2/[2(1 - )]
= 2.9167 customers
Wq = Lq / = 2.0833/10
W = Wq + 1/
1/12
13
= 0.2083 +
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
14
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
(M/GS/1):FCFS// Model
This model assumes exponentially distributed arrival rates and
general service times (described by mean and standard
deviation), with one server. The conventional assumption of
first-come, first-served priority is made, along with an infinite
maximum waiting line and an infinite calling population. The
formulas for the standard queuing measures for this set of
assumptions is:
Inputs
1/ = 1/10 hours = 6
minutes
1/ =1/12 hours = 5
= 1/60 hours = 1
minute
Outputs
= = 10/12 = 0.8333
Average utilization
P0 = 1 - = 1 0.8333 =
Pn = n(1 - )
P1 = (0.8333)1(1-0.8333) =
0.1389
P2 = (0.8333)2(1-0.8333) =
0.1157
P3 = (0.8333)3(1-0.8333) =
0.0965
Lq = (2)/[2(1 - )]
= 3 customers
Wq = Lq / = 2.1667/10
15
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
= 0.2167 hours, or 13
minutes
W = Wq + 1/
= 0.2167
+ 1/12
= 0.3 hours, or 18 minutes
Comparison with the M/M/1 and M/D/1 models indicates that the
low variance (standard deviation) of this model yielded
performance very close to (but just a bit more waiting than) the
constant service time model. It is true that as the variance
increases, the more waiting that will occur. The probability of
waiting here is identical to the M/M/1 and M/D/1 models.
16
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
(M/M/s):FCFS// Model
This model assumes exponentially distributed arrival rates and
service times, with multiple servers. The conventional
assumption of first-come, first-served priority is made, along
with an infinite maximum waiting line and an infinite calling
population. The formulas for the standard queuing measures
for this set of assumptions is:
Inputs
1/ = 1/10 hours = 6
minutes
1/ =1/12 hours = 5
s=2
= s = 10/(2 12) =
Average utilization
0.4167
Empty system probability
P0
s 1
n!
n 0
1
s
s! 1
P1 = (0.4118) (10/12)1 /1 =
0.3431
P2 = (0.4118) (10/12)2 /2 =
0.1430
If n > s, Pn = P0 (n/(s!sn-s)
P3 = (0.4118) (10/12)3 /(2 2(32)
)=
0.0596
17
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Lq
P0
s!1
= 0.1751
+ 0.8333
= 1.0084 customers
Wq = Lq / = 0.1751 / 10
= 0.1751
+ 1/12 = 0.1008
hours, or 6.05 minutes
This system radically reduces the waiting line, at the cost of
doubling service capacity (in the configuration of two parallel
servers). Waiting has practically disappeared, and would now
only occur when there were three or more customers in the
system, or 1 0.4118 0.3431 0.1430, or a probability of
0.1021.
18
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
(M/M/1):FCFS/K/ Model
This model differs from the M/M/1 model in that a finite waiting
line is imposed. It assumes exponentially distributed arrival
rates and exponentially distributed service times, with one
server. The conventional assumption of first-come, first-served
priority is made, along with an infinite calling population. The
formulas for the standard queuing measures for this set of
assumptions is:
Inputs
1/ = 1/10 hours = 6
minutes
1/ =1/12 hours = 5
K=3
Average utilization
= = 10/12 = 0.8333
P0 = (1 - K+1)
= (1 0.8333)/(1 0.83334) =
0.3219
Pn = n P0
P1 = (0.8333)1(0.3219) = 0.2683
P2 = (0.8333)2(0.3219) = 0.2235
P3 = (0.8333)3(0.3219) = 0.1863
K
n P
n 0
= 0 0.3219 + 1 0.2683 + 2
0.2235 +
3 0.1863 = 1.2742
customers
K
(n 1) P
Lq = n 2
= 1 0.2235 + 2 0.1863 =
0.5961
customers
Wq = Lq / (PK)
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
= 0.5961/[10(1-0.1863)]
= 0.0733 hours, or 4.40 minutes
W = L / (PK)
= 1.2742/[10(1 0.1863)]
= 0.1566 hours, or 9.40 minutes
By capping the maximum number waiting, in effect the number
of arrivals is reduced, thus radically reducing the waiting line
length and time. However, there is much less work done, as
there will be fewer customers served. The smaller K is, the
more impact.
20
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
(M/M/s):FCFS/K/ Model
This model adds the feature of multiple servers to the last
model.
Inputs
1/ = 1/10 hours = 6
minutes
1/ =1/12 hours = 5
Outputs
sK
Number of servers
s=2
K=3
Average utilization
= n = 10/(2 12) =
0.4167
P0
P1 = [(0.8333)1/1] P0
P2 = [(0.8333)2/2] P0
For s < n K
sn-s)] P0
Pn = [()n /(s!
P3 = [(0.8333)3/(22)] P0
P0 + P1 + P2 + P3 = 1.0
P0 + 0.8333 P0 + 0.3472 P0 +
0.1447 P0 = 1
P0 = 0.4301P1 = 0.3584P2 =
0.1493
P3 = 0.0622
K
n P
n 0
L = 0 + 1 0.3584 + 2 0.1493 +
3
0.0622 = 0.8437 customers
K
(n s) P
Lq =
Lq = 1 0.0622 = 0.0622
n s 1
customers
21
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Wq = Lq / [PK)]
= 0.0622/[10(1 0.0622)] =
0.0066 hours,
or 0.40 minutes
W = L / [PK)]
= 0.8437/[(10(1 0.0622)] =
0.0900 hours,
or 5.40 minutes
As with the one server model, capping the maximum number
waiting reduces the effective number of arrivals. With multiple
servers, there is radical reduction in the waiting line length and
time. The smaller K is, the more impact.
SUMMARY
Waiting line models are important conceptually in considering
service operations. The performance of these systems when
probabilistic arrival and/or service distributions are present is
usually quite counterintuitive. Waiting line models provide a
means to more accurately estimate the impact of changes to
various service systems, especially when arrival patterns are
determined by customer behavior, leading to arrival patterns
and service patterns following various distributions.
This chapter demonstrated some of the more conventional
types of waiting line systems. Formulas exist for specific types
of waiting line situations. Real applications involve a great deal
of complexity, often stringing a series of waiting line systems
together. Therefore, solution of waiting line problems is usually
accomplished through simulation.
KEY TERMS
Arrival: component in a waiting line system representing the
appearance of work to be accomplished
Balking: customer arrival pattern in a waiting line system
where if the line exceeds a certain level, the customer
departs the system prior to receiving service
Calling population: the set of all possible arrival entities
Distribution: statistical pattern enabling identification of
probabilities
FIFO: first-in, first-out priority rule commonly used to select the
next work
22
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Queue discipline: the rules used to select the next work for a
waiting line system
Service facility: the component of a waiting line system that
performs work
Steady state: waiting line system performance at the stage
when initial condition biases have been eliminated
Transient state: behavior of a waiting line system during the
period when the initial condition bias still affects system
performance measures
Waiting line: the queue of work that has arrived but which the
system has been unable to begin service for
PROBLEMS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Why will limited queue lines reach a steady state even when the arrival
rate exceeds the service rate?
8.
Why will models with limited calling populations reach a steady state
even though the arrival rate may exceed the service rate?
9.
Sal Maglie has operated a small barber shop in Poughkeepsie for a number
of years. Sal has experienced a wide variety of business conditions over
that time. With the development of his business, conditions have changed
a great deal. Sal has kept meticulous records of operations over the years.
There have been distinct changes in the distribution of customer arrivals as
well as the time Sal takes to give a haircut. When Sal was learning to cut
hair, the rate of service varied a lot. He averaged 30 minutes per haircut,
distributed exponentially. About one customer per hour arrived in a
random manner, risking his head to Sal's care.
Calculate the basic parameters of this system
(P0, P1, P2, L, Lq, W, Wq, ).
23
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
10.
11.
24
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
13.
14.
15.
16.
The board of directors of FNB (problems 15 and 16) has concluded that a
second teller is needed. Using the exponential arrival distribution, and two
servers:
a. Determine the probability of an arriving customer finding five people
already in the queue (thus constituting six customers in the system: One
being served, four in line, plus the new arrival).
b. Determine the same probability for a two-teller system.
c. Compare the empty-system probabilities for the one- and two-teller
situations.
d. What are the server utilization factors?
e. What is the mean queue length for each system?
17.
A city traffic control facility is used to collect traffic fines. The mayor of
the city is very concerned that citizens be treated well by city officials.
Those who get traffic citations vote. The mayor has received complaints
that the office for paying citations has experienced long waiting lines, and
the mayor wants an analysis of the system. The system consists of a clerk
who processes each ticket. Looking up data and cross-referencing results
in a distribution of service time that is exponentially distributed with a
mean capacity of 10 per hour. People come into the office during peak
periods (10 a.m. through 3 p.m.) at the rate of 6 per hour. If the line is
longer than 5 people, citizens tend to leave. Analyze the expected
performance of the current system. (M/M/1:FIFO/5/)
a. Identify the probability that the clerk is idle
b. Identify the average number of citizens waiting
c. Identify the average waiting time per citizen
25
David L. Olson
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
18.
Analyze the data in problem 17, only using two clerks instead of 1.
a.
b.
c.
d.
26