DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Thu Jul 01 19:34:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 87.41-88.51 86.96-88.76
EUR/USD 1.2397-1.2539 1.2324-1.2672
AUD/USD 0.8344-0.8487 0.8314-0.8566
NZD/USD 0.6816-0.6954 0.6791-0.6990
GBP/USD 1.5074-1.5190 1.4871-1.5390
USD/CHF 1.0575-1.0750 1.0499-1.0788
USD/CAD 1.0573-1.0662 1.0461-1.0678
EUR/JPY 109.12-109.86 108.06-110.88
EUR/GBP 0.8214-0.8256 0.8163-0.8274

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate amid negative USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 84.609 vs
Wednesday's 86.019 settlement) after hitting 7-month low of 86.96 yesterday as markets await
1230 GMT U.S. June non-farm payrolls (expected to have fallen by 110,000 vs May's 431,000
increase) & unemployment rate (expected at 9.8% vs May's 9.7%). USD/JPY weighed by
concerns U.S. economic recovery slowing after ISM Manufacturing PMI slumped to 56.2 in June
from 59.7 in May (vs 59.0 forecast); pending home sales plunged 30% in May, much worse than
13.0% drop expected; latest weekly claims for jobless benefits posted surprise 13,000 increase
against forecast for 2,000 drop. USD/JPY also undermined by Japan exporter sales; but losses
tempered by buying of yen crosses as risk aversion eased (VIX fear down 4.86% at 32.86) after
U.S. stocks pared early sharp losses to close modestly lower (DJIA off 0.42%); USD demand for
import settlements; positions adjustment before weekend. Other data focus: 2350 GMT Japan
June monetary base. USD/JPY daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, while stochastics
stay suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or higher USD/JPY trading near-term. Support
at 87.41 (hourly chart), then at 86.96 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to
psychological round numbers 86.00, 85.00, then 84.81 (Nov. 27 bottom). Resistance at 88.51
(hourly chart), then at 88.76 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 89.42-89.47
band (Tuesday's high-Monday's high), then 89.77 (June 25 high), 89.98 (June 24 high) and 90.58
(June 23 high).

EUR/USD - to consolidate as markets await U.S jobs data. Pair supported by bearish USD
sentiment, successful auction of EUR3.5 billion 5-year Spanish government debt which soothed
negative EUR sentiment just a day after Moody's placed nation's Aaa sovereign credit rating
under review for possible downgrade. But EUR/USD gains tempered by lingering worries over
euro zone's debt & fiscal woes; positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 0900 GMT EU
May PPI, May unemployment. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD in bullish mode,
stochastics turned bullish; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 1.2454 yesterday.
Support at 1.2397 (previous cap set Monday); breach would expose downside to 1.2324 (hourly
chart), then 1.2192 (yesterday's low), 1.2164 (Wednesday's low), 1.2149 (Tuesday's low) and
1.2043 (June 11 low). Resistance at 1.2539 (yesterday's high, near 55-day moving average);
breach would expose upside to 1.2672 (May 21 reaction high), then psychological 1.3000
(matching 100-day moving average).

AUD/USD - to consolidate before U.S. jobs data. Pair supported by bearish USD sentiment,
Aussie-U.S. yield gap, government's deal with mining industry on new profits tax; but gains
tempered by weaker commodity prices (CRB spot index ended down 2.31 yesterday at 256.21),
worries about slowdown in China's economic growth as China's June manufacturing data
disappointed. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode, but bullish
hammer candlestick pattern completed yesterday. Support at 0.8344 (hourly chart), then at
0.8314 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8265 (June 10 low), then 0.8193
(June 9 low) and 0.8086 (June 8 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8487 (hourly chart); breach would
expose upside to 0.8566 (Wednesday's high), then 0.8593 (previous base set June 25), 0.8721
(Tuesday's high) and 0.8776-0.8780 band (Monday's high-June 23 high).

NZD/USD - to range-trade before U.S. payrolls data. Pair supported by negative USD sentiment,
Kiwi-U.S. yield advantage, expectations RBNZ will hike rates by 25 bps at its review later this
month. But NZD/USD gains tempered by worries over China economic growth slowdown,
weaker commodity prices. NZD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics in bearish
mode, but bullish-piercing candlestick pattern completed yesterday. Support at 0.6816 (hourly
chart), then at 0.6791 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6691 (June 10 low),
then 0.6608 (June 9 low) and 0.6569 (June 8 reaction low). Resistance at 0.6954 (Wednesday's
high); breach would expose upside to 0.6990 (previous base set June 25), then 0.7085 (Tuesday's
high), 0.7123 (200-day moving average) and 0.7162 (June 23 reaction high).

GBP/USD - to consolidate before U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Pair underpinned by negative
USD sentiment; smaller-than-expected drop in UK June manufacturing PMI to 57.5 from 58.0 in
May, vs 57.0 forecast. But GBP/USD gains tempered by concerns over negative impact of fiscal
tightening on UK economic growth; positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 0830
GMT UK June CIPS construction PMI. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish at
overbought, but MACD bullish. Support at 1.5074 (hourly chart); breach would expose
downside to 1.4871 (yesterday's low), then 1.4854 (June 25 low), 1.4835 (55-day moving
average), 1.4800 (June 23 low) and 1.4686 (June 22 low). Resistance at 1.5190 (yesterday's
high); breach would expose upside to 1.5390 (April 30 reaction high), then 1.5498 (April 26
reaction high) and 1.5523 (April 15 reaction high).

USD/CHF - to consolidate before U.S. employment data. Pair weighed by bearish USD
sentiment; smaller-than-expected drop in Swiss June SVME PMI to 65.7 from 66.4 in May, vs
64.6 forecast. But USD/CHF losses tempered by positions adjustment before weekend. Daily
chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, while stochastics stay suppressed at oversold,
suggesting sideways or lower USD/CHF trading near-term. Support at 1.0575 (yesterday's low);
breach would expose downside to 1.0499 (April 14 reaction low), then 1.0431 (April 1 reaction
low) and 1.0127 Jan. 11 reaction low). Resistance at 1.0750 (hourly chart), then at 1.0788
(yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0854 (Wednesday's high), then 1.0903
(Tuesday's high), 1.0941 (Monday's high, near 100-day moving average) and 1.1046 (June 25
high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate before U.S. jobs report. Pair underpinned by weaker commodity &
oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $2.68 yesterday at $72.95/bbl); but gains tempered by
broad-based USD weakness. USD/CAD daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics
bullish, but latter at overbought. Resistance at 1.0662 (hourly chart), then at 1.0674-1.0678 band
(yesterday's high-June 7 reaction high); breach would expose upside to 1.0746 (May 26 high),
then 1.0851 (May 25 reaction high). Support at 1.0573 (yesterday's low); breach would expose
downside to 1.0461 (Wednesday's low), then 1.0349 (55-day moving average), 1.0338
(Tuesday's low), 1.0315 (Monday's low) and 1.0298 (100-day moving average).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate before U.S. jobs data. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD &
stochastics turning bullish. Resistance at 109.86 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to
110.81-110.88 band (Monday's high-June 25 high), then 111.36 (June 23 high), 112.45 (June 22
high) and 113.41 (June 21 reaction high). Support at 109.12 (previous cap set Wednesday);
breach would expose downside to 108.06 (hourly chart), then 107.47 (yesterday's low), 107.30
(Tuesday's 9-year low), 106.76 (Nov. 8, 2001 reaction low) and 105.45 (Sept. 4, 2001 reaction
low).

EUR/GBP - to trade with risks skewed higher. Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics rising
from oversold, MACD turning bullish. Resistance at 0.8256 (yesterday's high); breach would
target 0.8274 (June 24 & 25 high), then 0.8287 (June 23 high) and 0.8368 (June 22 high).
Support at 0.8214 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8163 (yesterday's low),
then 0.8065 (Tuesday's 19-month low), psychological 0.8000 and 0.7807 (Oct. 21, 2008 reaction
low).

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)