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Find the distance to Disneyland if the total driving time was 7.2 hours.
(distance)=(rate)(time) or d=rt
rate to Disnseyland:50
rate from Disneyland:30
time to Disneyland:t
time to Disneyland+time frome Disneyland=7.2 therefore time from Disneyland:7.2-t
Distance to Disneyland=50t
Distance from Disneyland=30(7.2-t)
These two distances are equal, therefore:
50t=30(7.2-t)
50t=216-30t
50t+30t=216-30t+30t
80t=216
80t/80=216/80
t=2.7 hrs
Plug this t into the distance equation going to Disneyland.
Distance to Disneyland=50(2.7) miles
Distance to Disneyland=135 miles
Exponential Functions
Let’s start off this section with the definition of an exponential function.
Notice that the x is now in the exponent and the base is a fixed number. This is exactly the
opposite from what we’ve seen to this point. To this point the base has been the variable, x in
most cases, and the exponent was a fixed number. However, despite these differences these
functions evaluate in exactly the same way as those that we are used to. We will see some
examples of exponential functions shortly.
Before we get too far into this section we should address the restrictions on b. We avoid one
and zero because in this case the function would be,
and these are constant functions and won’t have many of the same properties that general
exponential functions have.
Next, we avoid negative numbers so that we don’t get any complex values out of the function
and as you can see there are some function evaluations that will give complex numbers. We
only want real numbers to arise from function evaluation and so to make sure of this we
require that b not be a negative number.
Now, let’s take a look at a couple of graphs. We will be able to get most of the properties of
exponential functions from these graphs.
Solution
Okay, since we don’t have any knowledge on what these graphs look like we’re going to have
to pick some values of x and do some function evaluations. Function evaluation with
exponential functions works in exactly the same manner that all function evaluation has
worked to this point. Whatever is in the parenthesis on the left we substitute into all the x’s on
the right side.
-2
-1
1
2
Sometimes we’ll see this kind of exponential function and so it’s important to be able to go
between these two forms.
Properties of
1. The graph of will always contain the point . Or put
left to right. Check out the graph of above for verification of this
property.
5. If then
All of these properties except the final one can be verified easily from the graphs in the first
example. We will hold off discussing the final property for a couple of sections where we will
actually be using it.
As a final topic in this section we need to discuss a special exponential function. In fact this is so
special that for many people this is THE exponential function. Here it is,
. In the first case b is any number that is meets the restrictions given
above while e is a very specific number. Also note that e is not a terminating
decimal.
This special exponential function is very important and arises naturally in many
areas. As noted above, this function arises so often that many people will think
of this function if you talk about exponential functions. We will see some of the
applications of this function in the final section of this chapter.
Solution
Let’s first build up a table of values for this function.
x -2
f(x) 0.1353…
Solution
Here is a quick table of values for this function.
x -1
g(x) 32.945…
Now, as we stated above this example was more about the evaluation process
than the graph so let’s go through the first one to make sure that you can do
these.
the form
Inequality
Remember that a bracket, “[” or “]”, means that we include the endpoint while a parenthesis, “(”
or “)”, means we don’t include the endpoint.
Now, with the first four inequalities in the table the interval notation is really nothing more than
the graph without the number line on it. With the final four inequalities the interval notation is
almost the graph, except we need to add in an appropriate infinity to make sure we get the
correct portion of the number line. Also note that infinities NEVER get a bracket. They only get
a parenthesis.
We need to give one final note on interval notation before moving on to solving inequalities.
Always remember that when we are writing down an interval notation for an inequality that the
number on the left must be the smaller of the two.
It’s now time to start thinking about solving linear inequalities. We will use the following set of
facts in our solving of inequalities. Note that the facts are given for <. We can however, write
down an equivalent set of facts for the remaining three inequalities.
1. If then and
. In this case, unlike the previous fact, if c is negative we need to flip the
direction of the inequality when we multiply or divide both sides by the inequality by c.
These are nearly the same facts that we used to solve linear equations. The only real exception is
the third fact. This is the important fact as it is often the most misused and/or forgotten fact in
solving inequalities.
If you aren’t sure that you believe that the sign of c matters for the second and third fact consider
the following number example.
I hope that we would all agree that this is a true inequality. Now multiply both sides by 2 and by
-2.
Sure enough, when multiplying by a positive number the direction of the inequality remains the
same, however when multiplying by a negative number the direction of the inequality does
change.
Okay, let’s solve some inequalities. We will start off with inequalities that only have a single
inequality in them. In other words, we’ll hold off on solving double inequalities for the next set
of examples.
The thing that we’ve got to remember here is that we’re asking to determine all the values of the
variable that we can substitute into the inequality and get a true inequality. This means that our
solutions will, in most cases, be inequalities themselves.
Example 1 Solving the following inequalities. Give both inequality and interval notation forms of
the solution.
(a)
[Solution]
(b) [Solution]
Solution
Solving single linear inequalities follow pretty much the same process for solving linear equations.
We will simplify both sides, get all the terms with the variable on one side and the numbers on the
other side, and then multiply/divide both sides by the coefficient of the variable to get the solution.
The one thing that you’ve got to remember is that if you multiply/divide by a negative number then
switch the direction of the inequality.
(a)
There really isn’t much to do here other than follow the process outlined above.
You did catch the fact that the direction of the inequality changed here didn’t you? We divided by
a “-7” and so we had to change the direction. The inequality form of the solution is
(b)
Again, not much to do here.
Now, with this inequality we ended up with the variable on the right side when it more traditionally
on the left side. So, let’s switch things around to get the variable onto the left side. Note however,
that we’re going to need also switch the direction of the inequality to make sure that we don’t
change the answer. So, here is the inequality notation for the inequality.
Exponential functions
Definition
Take a > 0 and not equal to 1 . Then, the function defined by
f : R -> R : x -> ax
• The domain is R
• The range is the set of strictly positive real numbers
• The function is continuous in its domain
• The function is increasing if a > 1 and decreasing if 0 < a < 1
• The x-axis is a horizontal asymptote
Logarithmic functions
Definition and basic properties
Take a > 0 and not equal to 1 . Since the exponential function
f : R -> R : x -> ax
are either increasing or decreasing, the inverse function is defined. This inverse
function is called the logarithmic function with base a. We write
loga (x)
So,
loga(x) = y <=> ay = x
From this we see that the domain of the logarithmic function is the set of strictly
positive real numbers, and the range is R.
Example:
and
Graph
Let f(x) = a logarithmic function with a > 1.
Let g(x) = a logarithmic function with 0 < a < 1.
From the graphs we see that
• The range is R
• The domain is the set of strictly positive real numbers
• The function is continuous in its domain
• The function is increasing if a > 1 and decreasing if 0 < a < 1
• The y-axis is a vertical asymptote
Properties
In the next 3 properties, all logarithmic functions have base a > 0. For convenience, I
don't write this base a.
• au = av . aw
•
• => au = av + w
• => u=v+w
So,
log(x.y) = log(x) + log(y)
•
• For each real number r we have :
log(xr ) = r.log(x)
logb(a)
Proof:
We'll prove that
logb(a) . loga(x) = logb(x)
av = bw
Using (1)
bu.v = bw
So,
u.v = w
The number e
A special limit concerning the derivative of an exponential function
We try to calculate the derivative of the exponential function
f(x) = ax
Appealing on the definition of the derivative, we can write
(f(x+h)-f(x))
h->0 h
ax+h - ax
= lim ------------
h->0 h
ax (ah - 1)
= lim -----------
h->0 h
(ah - 1)
= ax . lim -----------
h->0 h
Now,
(ah - 1)
h->0 h
It can be proved that there is a unique value of a, such that this limit is 1. This very
special value of a is called e.
So,
(eh - 1)
lim ----------- = 1
h->0 h
(eh - 1)
lim ----------- = 1
0 h
eh - 1 is approximately h
<=> eh is approximately h +1
So,
0
Or, if we say that t = 1/h
infty
Definition of ln(x)
The logarithmic function with base number e is noted ln(x). So,
loge(x) = ln(x)
(f(x+h)-f(x))
h->0 h
(log(x+h)-log(x))
h->0 h
log( (x+h)/x )
h->0 h
h->0 h
h->0
h->0
h->0
h->0
h->0
h/x->0
h/x->0
x. ln(a)
Important cases
Let u be a differentiable function of x.
d 1
-- loga(x) = ----------
dx x. ln(a)
d 1
dx u. ln(a)
d 1
-- ln(x) = ---
dx x
d 1
-- ln(u) = ---.u'
dx u
So,
ax .ln(a)
d
dx
Important corollaries
Let u be a differentiable function of x.
---(ax ) = ax .ln(a)
dx
--(ex ) = ex
dx
--(au ) = au .ln(a).u'
dx
--(eu ) = eu .u'
dx
=>
--(xr) = er.ln(x).(r.ln(x))'
dx
= xr.r.(1/x)
= r.xr-1
Thus,
--(ur) = r.ur-1.u'
dx
Derivative of uv
Let u = f(x) and v = g(x), then
uv = ev.ln(u)
--(uv) = ev.ln(u).(v.ln(u))'
dx
dx
have a clue.
13. A bag contains one red marble and one white marble. Marbles
times in a row?
Sincerely,
Alexia Kaye
Hello! I'm glad you wrote for help -- that is what we are here
for!
Okay, so if you are flipping 6 coins, and you want to know the
you need to know is what the probability that the coin will land
on heads is, and what the probability that the coin will land on
Thus, in the fair coin, the probability that the coin lands on heads
is 1/2 because on the average, one out of every two times the coin
lands on heads. Likewise the probability that the coin will land
nearly equal to 1/2, but are more like, for instance, .4899
Let's tackle that first problem. Suppose you want to know the
probability that when you flip your six coins you will get the
This may be something you have seen before; if not, feel free to
right? Well, now let's use the same general strategy to solve your
Certainly the sequence above does, and there are others: HHTTHH
there are "6 choose 2" such sequences. I'm not sure how much
math that has to do with counting things like the number of sequences
of H's and T's such that there are 4 H's and 2 T's!) you have had,
left, those slots must be filled by heads, and we are okay. So, in how
many ways can we put 2 T's into 6 different slots? The combinatorial
answer is "6 choose 2" = 6!/ (4!)(2!). Thus, the number of sequences
with 4 heads and 2 tails is 6!/ (4!)(2!). Thus the probability that
question, eh?!
you.
The third and fourth questions can be figured out using methods
that a certain event will NOT happen, and then once you know that,
you can use the fact the probability that an event will happen + the
probability.
probability that you will not get at least 3 heads. If you don't have
at least 3 heads, what does that mean? It means you must have
that you have 2 heads? (These are things you can solve using exactly
the same method we used to solve your first two problems). Since the
events are mutually exclusive (that is, if you have a sequence with
exactly 2 heads. So, from here you can probably get an answer.
I'm going to leave the marble questions to you, for now. See if
you can figure out what to do with them, having done the coin
Conditional Probability
the Ask Dr. Math faq. The example is discussing the independent
events of drawing red or blue marbles. There are 6 blue marbles and 4
red marbles. The discussion goes on to talk about two events, the
second outcome dependent upon the first. The actual example is: But
Thank you,
Carole Black
This means that the probability of drawing a Red given that the first
draw was a blue is 4/9. Note the word 'given'. We know before making
the second draw that the first draw was a blue. This must be contrasted
with the probability of red-blue before we start making any draw. The
P(A and E)
P(E|A) = ----------
P(A)
In other words, if we know that A has occurred, then the sample space
From: Sally
Subject: Probabilities
obtaining:
P(5) = 1/6
P(head and 5) = 1/2 x 1/6 = 1/2
Thanks.
Hi Sally,
h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6
h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6
--
So p(heads and five) = 1/12. How many contain a heads _or_ a five?
h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6
-- -- -- -- -- -- --
p(heads) = 6/12
and
p(5) = 2/12
and when we add them up, we get 8/12, which is clearly wrong. So what
h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6
-- -- -- -- -- --
~~ ~~
INTERPRETING PROBABILITIES
What is a probability? What does it mean to say that a probability of a fair coin is one
half, or that the chances I pass this class are 80 percent, or that the probability that the
Steelers win the Super Bowl this season is .1?
First, think of some event where the outcome is uncertain. Examples of such
outcomes would be the roll of a die, the amount of rain that we get tomorrow, the state
of the economy in one month, or who will be the President of the United States in the
year 2001. In each case, we don't know for sure what will happen. For example, we
don't know exactly how much rain we will get tomorrow.
A probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood of the event. It is a number that
we attach to an event, say the event that we'll get over an inch of rain tomorrow,
which reflects the likelihood that we will get this much rain.
A probability is a number from 0 to 1. If we assign a probability of 0 to an event, this
indicates that this event never will occur. A probability of 1 attached to a particular
event indicates that this event always will occur. What if we assign a probability of .5?
This means that it is just as likely for the event to occur as for the event to not occur.
+----------------------------+----------------------------+
0 .5 1
to occur
There are two basic interpretations, or ways of thinking, about probabilities. These
interpretations will help us assign probabilities to uncertain outcomes.
THE RELATIVE FREQUENCY INTERPRETATION OF
PROBABILITY
We are interested in learning about the probability of some event in some process. For
example, our process could be rolling two dice, and we are interested in the
probability in the event that the sum of the numbers on the dice is equal to 6.
Suppose that we can perform this process repeatedly under similar conditions. In our
example, suppose that we can roll the two dice many times, where we are careful to
roll the dice in the same manner each time.
I did this dice experiment 50 times. Each time I recorded the sum of the two dice and
got the following outcomes:
4 10 6 7 5 10 4 6 5 6 11 11 3 3 6
7 10 10 4 4 7 8 8 7 7 4 10 11 3 8
6 10 9 4 8 4 3 8 7 3 7 5 4 11 9
5 5 5 8 5
To approximate the probability that the sum is equal to 6, I count the number of 6's in
my experiments (5) and divide by the total number of experiments (50). That is, the
probability of observing a 6 is roughly the relative frequency of 6's.
# of 6's
PROBABILITY (SUM IS 6) is approximately -----------
# of tosses
5
= ---- = .1
50
*********
+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
What if we wanted to get a more accurate estimate at our probability? We need to
make more comparison between bets. For example, we could compare two bets,
where the first bet used our event and the second used the event "draw red" from a
bowl of chips with 6 red and 4 white. After a number of these comparisons, we can
get a pretty accurate estimate at our probability.
INTERPRETING ODDS
Often probabilities are stated in the media in terms of odds. For example, the
following is a paragraph from Roxy Roxborough's Odds and Ends column in USA
EYE OF THE TIGER: Sensational PGA tour rookie Tiger Woods has been installed
an early 9-5 favorite to win the most cash at the Skins Game at the Rancho La
Quinta Golf Course in La Quinta, Calif., Nov. 30-Dec. 1. The charismatic
Woods will have to contend with Fred Couples, the close 2-1 second choice, as
well as the still dangerous Tom Watson, 3-1, and power stroker John Daly, 9-2.
We read that Tiger Woods is the favorite to win this golf tournament at a 9-5 odds.
What does this mean?
An odds of an event is the ratio of the probability that the event will not occur to the
probability that the event will occur . In our example, the event is "Tiger Woods will
win". We read that the odds of this event are 9 to 5 or 9/5. This means that
Probability (Tiger Woods will not win) 9
-------------------------------------- = ---
Probability (Tiger Wodds will win) 5
This means that it is more likely for Woods to lose the tournament than win the
tournament.
How can we convert odds to probabilities? There is a simple recipe. If the odds of an
event are stated as A to B (or A-B or A/B), then the probability of the event is
B
Probability(event) = ----------
B + A
So, for example, if the odds of Woods winning are 9-5 or 9/5, then the probability of
Woods winning is
5
Probability(event) = ---------- = .3571
5 + 9
Who has made legitimate probability assignments in the above table? There are
problems with the probabilities that Max and Joe have assigned. Joe can't give the
outcome "it takes between 30 and 35 minutes" a negative probability, no matter how
unlikely this outcome. Joe has made a mistake, since the sum of his probabilities for
the four nonoverlapping outcomes is 1.2, which is not equal to 1.
Sue and Mary have give sets of legitimate probabilities, since they are all nonnegative
and they sum to 1. But there differences between these two sets of probabilities, which
reflect different opinions of these two people about the length of time to work. Sue is
relatively optimistic about the time to work, since .8 of her probability is on the
outcomes "under 30 minutes" and "between 30 and 35 minutes". In contrast, Mary
believes that a trip under 30 minutes will never occur (it has a probability of 0) and it
is very probable that it will take between 35 and 40 minutes.
COMPUTING PROBABILITIES WITH EQUALLY
LIKELY OUTCOMES
Before we can compute any probabilities for outcomes in a random process, we have
to define the sample space , or collection of all possible outcomes. If we have listed all
outcomes and it is reasonable to assume that the outcomes are equally likely , then it is
easy to assign probabilities.
Let's consider a simplified lottery game. Suppose that Ohio has a game where you try
to guess a random two-digit number that is selected. This "winning" random number
is selected by the following process. There are two boxes, labelled box A and box B,
that each contain 10 ping pong-balls labelled using the digits 0 through 9. A random
number is selected by letting the first digit be the number of the ball selected from box
A, and the second digit is the number of the ball selected from box B.
What is the sample space? There are 100 possible winning two-digit numbers that are
listed below.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
By the way the two-digit number is selected, no particular number listed above has
any more or less chance of being selected than another number. So it is reasonable to
assign the same probability to each number in the above list. What probability should
be assigned? There are 100 possible winning numbers. If we wish to assign the same
probability to each number and keep the total probability of all the numbers equal to
1, then each number should be given the probability 1/100 = .01.
In general, if there are N possible outcomes in an experiment and the outcomes
are equally likely , then you should assign a probability of 1/N to each outcome.
CAUTION: This recipe for assigning probabilities works only when the outcomes are
equally likely. It is easy to misuse this. For example, suppose you toss a coin three
times and you're interested in the number of heads. The possible numbers of heads
(the sample space) are
0 head, 1 head, 2 heads, 3 heads
There are four outcomes in this case. But it is incorrect to assume that the probabilities
of each outcome is 1/4 = .25. These four outcomes are not equally likely. In fact, the
probability of 1 head is three times the probability of 3 heads.
CONSTRUCTING A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION BY
LISTING OUTCOMES
In a random experiment, the sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes.
In some situations, it is reasonable to assume that all of the possible outcomes of the
experiment are equally likely. In this case, it is straightforward to compute the
probability distribution for some variable of interest.
Let us illustrate this construction process for a simple example. Suppose a room
contains two men and three women. You wish to select two people from this class to
serve on a committee. How many women will be on this committee? We don't know --
the number of women in the committee could be 0, 1 or 2. We are interested in
obtaining the probability of each of the three possibilities.
First, we will represent the people in the room using the symbols
W1 W2 W3 M1 M2
In the above, W represents a women and M a man and we distinguish between the
people of the same sex.
Our experiment is selecting two people to serve on the committee. Using our symbols
for the people, there are the following 10 possible committees. Note that we don't care
what order the two people are selected; we are only interested in the group of people
in the committee. If we select the committee at random, then each possible group of
two people has the same chance of being selected. Since there are 10 groups, we
assign to each possible committee the probability 1/10.
COMMITTEE PROBABILITY
W1, W2 1/10
W1, W3 1/10
W2, W3 1/10
M1, W1 1/10
M1, W2 1/10
M1, W3 1/10
M2, W1 1/10
M2, W2 1/10
M2, W3 1/10
M1, M2 1/10
Remember our interest was in the number of women on the committee. For each
committee listed above, we can list the number of women selected. For example,in the
committee {W1, W2}, 2 women were selected, for the committee {M2, W3}, 1
woman was selected, and so on. We put the number of women next to the group name
in the table.
COMMITTEE # OF WOMEN PROBABILITY
W1, W2 2 1/10
W1, W3 2 1/10
W2, W3 2 1/10
M1, W1 1 1/10
M1, W2 1 1/10
M1, W3 1 1/10
M2, W1 1 1/10
M2, W2 1 1/10
M2, W3 1 1/10
M1, M2 0 1/10
Now we are ready to construct our probabilty table for "number of women". In the
table below, we list all possible numbers of women we could pick (0, 1 or 2). Then we
assign probabilities to the three outcomes by using the above table.
What is the probabilty that 0 women are selected. Looking at the table, we see that 0
women means that the committee selected was {M1, M2} which has probability 1/10.
So the probability of 0 women is 1/10.
What is the probabilty that exactly 1 women is selected? Looking at the table, we see
that we select exactly 1 women when the committes {M1, W1}, {M1, W2}, {M1,
W3}, {M2, W1}, {M2, W2}, {M2, W3} are chosen. By adding the probabilities of the
six outcomes, we see that the probability of 1 women is 6/10. It should be easy for
you to find the probability that two women are selected. Putting this all together, we
arrive at the following probability distribution for number of women.
# OF WOMEN PROBABILITY
0 1/10
1 6/10
2 3/10
To help understand any pattern in these observed numbers of heads, we use a stemplot
display. The stems on the left are the elements of the sample space {0, 1, 2, ..., 20}.
These are the possible numbers of heads that we could get if a coin were tossed 20
times. Then we indicate by leafs of 0's the outcomes in our 10 experiments.
0 10 EXPERIMENTS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 0
9 000
10 00
11 0
12 0
13 0
14
15 0
16
17
18
19
20
More experiments.
We're starting to see some clumping of the values about 10, but we haven't performed
enough experiments to see a strong pattern. Click on the "more experiments" link to
see the results of 50 experiments.
PROBABILITIES OF "OR" AND "NOT" EVENTS
Sometimes we are interested in computing probabilities of more complicated events. Here we introduce
two basic probability rules. The first rule is useful for finding the probability of one event or another
event. The second rule tells us how to compute the probability that an event does not occur.
There are 100 possible winning numbers and since each has the same chance of being chosen, we assign
a probability of 1/100 = .01 to each number.
Suppose we want to find the probability that the winning number has the same two digits or the
winning number is between 89 and 96 inclusive. If these two events ("same two digits" and "between 89
and 96") are nonoverlapping, then we can find the probability of "same two digits" or "between 89 and
96" by adding:
Prob("same two digits" or "between 89 and 96") = Prob("same two digits")+Prob("between 89 and 96")
Are these two events nonoverlapping? Nonoverlapping means that it is impossible for the two events to
occur at the same time. Here "same two digits" means the winning number is from the set {00, 11, 22,
33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99}. "Between 89 and 96" means that the number is in the set {89, 90, 91, 92, 93,
94, 95, 96}. Note that these two sets have nothing in common; in other words, it is impossible for the
winning number to have the same two digits and be between 89 and 96. So we can add the probabilities
to find the probability of the "or" event. The probability of "same two digits" is 10/100 and the
probability of "between 89 and 96" is 8/100. Therefore the probability of interest is
Prob("same two digits" or "between 89 and 96") = 10/100 + 8/100 = 18/100 = .18
What if we wanted to find the probability of "same two digits" or "an even second digit"? Here we can't
use this addition rule, since these two events are overlapping. It is possible for the winning to have the
same two digits and have an even second digit -- the number 44 (and other numbers) is in both events.
So this rule cannot be used in this case.
This rule is also applicable in the case where you want to find the probability of a collection of different
outcomes. Suppose you toss a coin five times and you wish to find the probability that the number of
heads is 2 or fewer. You can think of the event "2 or fewer heads" as an "or" event:
By definition, the three outcomes {0 heads}, {1 heads} and {2 heads}, since you can only observe at most
one of these outcomes when you toss the coin three times. So the addition rule can be used and
We have already found the probability that the winning number has the same two digits, so the
probability of interest is
The complement rule is especially useful in the case where it hard to compute the probability of an
event, but it is relatively easy to compute the probability of "not" the event. For example, suppose we
wish to compute the probability of tossing at least one head in 10 tosses of a coin. In this case, it would
make sense to first perform the easier computation, the probability of "not at least one head" or "no
heads". Then we apply the complement rule to find the probability of the event of interest.
Here we compute the average value to be $-.53 or 53 cents. What does this mean?
• First, it is important to note that the average winning is negative. This is not a
fair game and it is to your disadvantage (and the casino's advantage) for you to
play this game.
• One useful interpretation of the average winning $-.53 is that it is
approximately the average winning per game if you were to play this game (bet
$10 on numbers 1-12) a large number of times.
Let's illustrate this using a computer to simulate many games. I play the game
100 times one day and I record the winnings (in dollars) for the games in the
table below.
20 -10 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10
20 20 20 20 20 -10 20 -10 20 -10 -10 -10
20 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 20
20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 20 20
-10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 20
-10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
-10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 20
-10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 20
-10 -10 20 -10
How have I done at the end of the day? It turns out that I am $40 in the hole
after these 100 games. In other words, I have lost an average amount of
$40/100 = $.40 or 40 cents on each game. This is close to the average value .53
that I computed from the probability distribution above. I would observe an
average loss closer to .53 if I played this game a much larger number of times.
UNDERSTANDING A TWO-WAY TABLE OF
PROBABILITIES
Suppose we have a random process where an outcome is observed and two things are
measured. For example, suppose we toss a fair coin three times and we observe the
sequence
HTH
where H is a head and T a tail. Suppose we record
• the number of heads
• the number of runs in the sequence
In the three tosses above, we observe 2 heads and 3 runs in the sequence.
We are interested in talking about probabilities involving both measurements "number
of heads" and "number of runs". These are described as joint probabilities , since they
reflect the outcomes of two variables.
To construct this type of probability distribution, we first describe the collection of
possible outcomes for the two variables. The number of heads in three tosses could be
0, 1, 2, or 3, and the number of runs in a sequence could be 1, 2, or 3. We represent
these outcomes by the following two-way table:
NUMBER OF HEADS
0 1 2 3
1
NUMBER OF RUNS 2
3
Next we have to place probabilities in the above table. If we toss a coin three times,
there are 8 possible outcomes. Since the coin is fair, each of the outcomes has the
same probability. In the table below, we list the eight outcomes, the number of heads
and the number of runs in the outcome and the probability of the outcome.
OUTCOME # OF HEADS # OF RUNS PROBABILITY
HHH 3 1 1/8
HHT 2 2 1/8
HTH 2 3 1/8
HTT 1 2 1/8
THH 2 2 1/8
THT 1 3 1/8
TTH 1 2 1/8
TTT 0 1 1/8
Now we are ready to fill in the probability table. Start with the box in the first row and
first column. What is the probability that the number of runs is equal to 1 andthe
number of heads is equal to 0? Looking at the outcome table, we see that this happens
once (for outcome TTT). So the probability of 1 run and 0 heads is equal to the
probability of TTT, which is 1/8. What's the probability of 1 run and 1 head. We see
from the outcome table that this never happens, so the probability in this box is 0.
Next look at the box in the second row and second column. To find the probability of
2 runs and 1 head, we see that this happens twice in the outcome table (HTT and
TTH). So the probability in this box is 2/8. If we continue this for all boxes, we get
the following probability table.
NUMBER OF HEADS
0 1 2 3
1 1/8 0 0 1/8
NUMBER OF RUNS 2 0 2/8 2/8 0
3 0 1/8 1/8 0
For the following questions, it might be helpful to convert this probability table to a
count table. Suppose that we tossed three coins 800 times. Then we would expect to
get 1 run and 0 head 1/8th of the experiments, or 100 times, we expect to get 2 runs
and 1 head 2/8th of the time, or 200 experiments, and so on. By converting
probabilities to counts, we get the following count table. This represents what we
think would happen if we did this coin experiment many times. Note that I have added
an extra row and extra column to the table. The TOTAL column gives the number of
counts in each row and the TOTAL row gives the number of counts in each column.
NUMBER OF HEADS
0 1 2 3 TOTAL
1 100 0 0 100 200
NUMBER OF RUNS 2 0 200 200 0 400
3 0 100 100 0 200
TOTAL 100 300 300 100 800
Using this count table, we'll ask some questions which explore the connection
between the number of heads in this experiment and the number of runs.
1. If you toss three coins, how many runs are likely to occur? Look at the TOTAL
column of the table. This tells us that, out of 800 experiments, we expect to get
200 "one run", 400 "two runs", and 200 "three runs". The most likely
possibility is "two runs" which has probability 400/800 = .5.
2. If we are told that we get two runs in our coin tossing, what does that tell you
about the number of heads? Look only at the "two runs" row of the table. Two
runs happened 400 times in our hypothetical experiments. Of these 400 counts,
only 1 and 2 heads occurred with frequencies 200 and 200. So if we are given
that two runs occur, then we know that the only two possibilities are 1 and 2
heads with respective probabilities 200/400 and 200/400
3. What if we are told that the experiment resulted in exactly 2 heads. Have you
learned anything about the number of runs in the sequence? Focus now on the
"2 heads" column of the table. The number of 1 runs, 2 runs, and 3 runs in this
column are 0, 200, and 100. So if we know that there were 2 heads, then the
probabilities of 1 runs, 2 runs, and 3 runs are 0/300, 200/300, and 100/300. So
it is most likely in this case that 2 runs will occur and 1 run in the sequence is
impossible.