Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
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YEARBOOK
2016
Armaments,
Disarmament and
International
Security
Summary
THE SIPRI YEARBOOK
SIPRI Yearbook 2016 presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military
expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, armed conflicts
and multilateral peace operations with state-of-the-art analysis of important aspects of arms
control, peace and international security. The SIPRI Yearbook, which was first published in
1969, is written by both SIPRI researchers and invited outside experts.
This booklet summarizes the contents of SIPRI Yearbook 2016 and gives samples of the
data and analysis that it contains.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction 1
introduction 1
2. ARMED CONFLICT IN THE nature of the conicts and political crises in
MIDDLE EAST Iraq, Syria and other countries where IS
ghters operate complicates efforts to
In 2015, the Middle East remained an area
address the threat, as does the wide range
of major insecurity, and a source of
of countries from which it recruits ghters
profound problems and challenges for
and other kinds of support. In order to
neighbouring regions, most notably in the
defeat IS, it will be necessary to defuse the
form of the terrorist attacks in Paris and
Sunni Muslim revolt that has been building
elsewhere and the displacement of huge
across the Arab world since 1979, cool the
numbers of refugees.
competition for inuence and supremacy
Among the key developments in the year
between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite
were: the intensication of military attacks
Iran, and address the social and cultural
against Houthi insurgents and their allies
background to radicalization.
in Yemen by a coalition of countries led by
Saudi Arabia; continuing warfare in Syria Refugee flows changing the Middle East?
and the entry of Russia into the war in
The wars in Iraq and Syria have displaced
September 2015; continuing and
around 4 million Iraqis and 12million
increasingly random violence between
Syrians. The three countries that currently
Israel and Palestine; a worsening civil war
host the most refugees are Jordan, Lebanon
in Libya, with the Islamic State (IS) gaining
and Turkey. A substantive new underclass
ground in some eastern coastal areas;
of citizens has emerged in four Arab
challenges to the Iraqi Government from
countries: in Syria and Iraq, millions of
both IS and the separatist claims of Kurdish
internally displaced persons are living in
leaders; and in Egypt an escalating conict
precarious conditions, on the run in their
in the Sinai involving an IS affiliate, which
own land; in Lebanon and Jordan, refugees
claimed responsibility for the in-air
have settled in the poorest regions of both
destruction of a Russian airliner in 2015.
countries, triggering a growth in
The Islamic State and the international vulnerable populations. If left unaddressed,
response the fallout from identity-based polarization
in the region and the expansion in
In 2015, IS controlled large areas of Iraq
vulnerable populations will have further
and Syria, and had affiliates and supporters
profound repercussions for regional and
in several other states. The group directed
international stability.
tens of thousands of ghters in Iraq and
Syria, and terrorist attacks attributed to IS The Kurds in the Middle East, 2015
outside those two countries demonstrated
There were important developments in the
its ability to threaten societies in the wider
political trajectory of the Kurds in Turkey,
Middle East, Africa, South Asia and
Iraq and Syria during 2015. The estimated
Europe.
30 million Kurds generally held their own
Provoking direct confrontation with
both politically and militarily, and will
hostile powers and targeting populations
continue to be an inseparable and difficult
seem to be core aims of the group and a part
to ignore part of the regions politics. In
of what its leaders see as a prophesized
Turkey, a political path to the resolution of
civilizational conict. The interdependent
0 80 km TURKEY
2 300 000
SYRIA
LEBANON
1 070 000
Beirut Damascus
Baghdad
IRAQ
Amman 245 000
the Kurdish issue was blocked, but in Iraq as an example of cooperative management
and Syria Kurdish forces won unequivocal of conict risk. However, complex technical
victories against IS, which increased their and political questions remain over
legitimacy in the West and enabled them to implementation and verication. Iran has
expand the areas under their control. evolved over the past 20 years into a status
However, the political end point for the quo power trying to maintain relationships
Kurds in Turkey, and whether there is life and its own role in the region. Irans
after IS for the aspirations of Syrias and current clout in regional affairs stems
Iraqs Kurds to pursue their own political mainly from the lack of stability of its
destiny, remain unclear. neighbours. Its relations with Saudi Arabia
have deteriorated, however, and this is
Irans Middle East dynamics
affecting conict zones across the
The July 2015 agreement regulating Irans region.
nuclear technology programme stood out
60
No. of operations
regard to trends and developments in peace 40
30
operations. There was no shortage of 20
new or signicantly enhanced peace Conducting organization: United Nations Regional organization or alliance Ad hoc coalition
operation.
Four relatively small missions started, Why consolidation in 2015 and what
while three relatively small missions about the future?
closed. A smaller European Union (EU)
Several factors explain this consolidation in
military advisory mission replaced the EU
2015. First, in a number of conicts
Military Operation in the Central African
geopolitical obstacles, failing peace
Republic (EUFOR RCA). The
processes or the security environment
Intergovernmental Authority on
prohibit the establishment of new peace
Development (IGAD) Monitoring and
operations. Second, in those countries
Verication Mechanism (MVM) in South
where the interests of great powers
Sudan was succeeded by a new ceasere
converge and the situation allows for a
monitoring mechanism following the peace
peace operation to be deployed, peace
agreement. The North Atlantic Treaty
operations were often already being hosted.
Organization (NATO) replaced its mission
Third, in their conict management efforts
in Afghanistan. Lastly, an additional EU
and in dealing with jihadist groups such as
mission was established in Mali, while the
the Islamic State and Boko Haram,
French Operation Licorne in Cte dIvoire
international and regional actors relied on
ended. In total, there were two fewer peace
other means, such as military interventions
operations active during 2015 compared to
and direct or indirect support of local
2014.
proxies.
The 61 operations that were active in
It is difficult to predict the direction of
2015 had 162703 personnel in the eld,
next years trends. A number of operations
slightly more than in the previous year.
are on the list for drawdown, potentially
This brought to an end the fall in the total
decreasing the number of missions and the
number of personnel deployed in peace
number of personnel deployed, but there
operations that began in 2012. The United
are also possible large-scale stabilization
Nations remained the primary actor in
operations on the horizon in places like
peace operations, deploying roughly one-
Burundi, Libya, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen.
third of all peace operations (20 out of 61)
and 70 per cent of all personnel (113660 out
of 162703)an increase of 3336 personnel
in 2015 compared to 2014.
30
No. of multilateral peace operations
25
20
15
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
200 000
unprecedented scale of recent arrivals. The
0
sudden arrival of very large numbers of 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
Western and Central Europe
Eastern Europe
Middle East*
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
and education since 1995 shows that a comfortably achieved at a cost of well under
majority of countries have increased health 10 per cent of annual global military
and education spending, while reducing spending, while eliminating extreme
military spending. The trend in some states poverty and hunger (SDGs 1 and 2) would
in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, cost just over 10 per cent. A little less than
however, has gone in the opposite direction. half the worlds annual military spending
An increasing majority of countries spend would be sufficient to meet the majority of
more on health than on military spending, those SDGs for which additional economic
but states in the Middle East, along with resources are a central requirement.
many oil-revenue dependent states in other
Military expenditure data
regions, tend to be exceptions. There is no
apparent correlation between trends in National response rates to the UN reporting
countries spending on the military and instrument on military spending continue
their spending on health. to decline. The SIPRI tables of military
A number of studies have considered the expenditure by country are freely
cost of achieving the various Sustainable accessible online via the Military
Development Goals (SDGs), which were Expenditure Database, <www. sipri.org/
adopted by the United Nations in 2015. By databases/milex>.
comparing the sums discussed in these
studies with the level of global military
spending, assessments can be made about
how much could be achieved if a proportion
of world military spending were redirected
to the SDGs. SDG4 on education could be
90
between 200610 and 201115. The flow of
arms to Asia and Oceania, and Africa also 60
the conflict in Yemen in 2015 led to 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
50
(billions of trend-indicator values)
40
Volume of arms transfers
30
20
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Deployed Other Total Each year, in the run-up to the next edition of
Country warheads warheads inventory the SIPRI Yearbook, SIPRI has a number of
major data-set launches, covering the latest
USA 1 930 2 500 7 000
year for which data is available. Each launch
Russia 1 790 2 800 7 290
features a detailed, up-to-date fact sheet that
UK 120 215
highlights the topics key ndingsndings
France 280 10 300
which are explored in more depth in the
China 260
corresponding yearbook chapter. The fact
India .. 100120
sheets are comprehensive in themselves,
Pakistan .. 110130
while offering a glimpse of the more
Israel .. 80
expansive coverage to come.
North Korea (10) (10)
Total 4 120 5 310 ~15 395 Fleurant, A., Perlo-Freeman, S., Wezeman,
.. = not applicable or not available; = zero; P. D., Wezeman, S. T. and Kelly, N., The
( ) = uncertain gure. All estimates are SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military
approximate and as of Jan. 2016. services companies, 2014, SIPRI Fact Sheet,
December 2015, <https://www.sipri.org/
publications/2015/sipri-fact-sheets/sipri-top-
gl ob a l s t o c k s of f i s si l e 100-arms-producing-and-military-services-
m at e r i a l s , 2 0 1 5 companies-2014>.
Separated plutonium
Military stocks ~230tonnes
Civilian stocks ~275 tonnes
Gives consistent time series on the military spending of 172 countries since 1988, allowing
comparison of countries military spending: in local currency, at current prices; in US
dollars, at constant prices and exchange rates; and as a share of GDP.
Shows all international transfers in seven categories of major conventional arms since 1950,
the most comprehensive publicly available source of information on international arms
transfers.
Gives information on all arms embargoes that have been implemented by an international
organization, such as the EU or UN, or by a group of nations. All embargoes that are in force,
or have been in force since 1998, are included.
Provides links to all publicly accessible national reports on arms exports and is constantly
updated to include links to newly published national reports on arms exports.
Offers information on all UN and non-UN peace operations conducted since 2000, including
location, dates of deployment and operation, mandate, participating countries, number of
personnel, costs and fatalities.
Lists multi- and bilateral treaties, conventions, protocols and agreements relating to arms
control and disarmament.
1
TRANSLATIONS
SIPRI Yearbook 2016 will be translated into
Chinese by the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA), Beijing
www.cacda.org.cn
Russian by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO),
Moscow
www.imemo.ru
Ukrainian by the Razumkov Centre (Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political
Studies, UCEPS), Kyiv
www.razumkov.org.ua
These translations are funded by the Swiss Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection
and Sport. Contact the publishing organizations for further details.
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict,
armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data,
analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media
and the interested public.
Signalistgatan 9
SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden
Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00
Email: sipri@sipri.org
Internet: www.sipri.org
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
www.sipriyearbook.org