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Key Words: Condition based maintenance, Condition Monitoring, Proportional hazards modeling,
Vibration monitoring, Oil analysis, EXAKT software, Expert systems, Neural networks.
Some Disadvantages
There are no methods for training NNs that can magically The work reported in this paper originated in the
create information that is not contained in the training data measurement of oil deposits in the Pran and Whimey engines
0 Training data must be representative of ALL the machine on the Boeing 707 of the Canadian Department of National
conditions in order for NN to successfully be used in smart Defence [Ref. IO], where rates of change of certain engine oil
CM deposits were compared to standards. If the rate exceeded its
Significantly longer training times than those for Expert limit, the engine was removed from service prior to its design
systems life and retumed to Pratt and Whitney for major overhaul. In
A NN decision engine has the ability to adapt with that initial study it was noted that from time-to-time engines
incoming signal inputs- thus, if the incoming signals are that had been removed were in fact in good health, and could
drifting, the NN may adapt and view this drift as normal, have remained safely on the aircraft for a further period, This
when in fact, this drift is a sign of an out-of-control led to an interest in obtaining a good estimate of what the risk
process- referred to as over-fitting was of an engine transitioning to a failed state between two
Campbells Soup*
Canadian Department of National Defence
Mass Transit Railway Corporation of Hong Kong
Pricewaterhousecoopers , Management Consulting Services:
Hydro One
Electricite de France*
Figure I: EXAKT Graph of Optimal Replacement Policy
The goal of interpreting the CM data is to make the best Figure 5: Summary of PHM Parameters- Including
possible maintenance decision by, for example, getting a Calcium
handle on the true state of health of the equipment, calculating
the risk of impending failure, and estimating the remaining
4. CASE STUDIES
The result for the risk model is therefore: 4. I . Campbell Soup Company.
Campbells Canadian operation is in Toronto, Ontario. It
- I
was there that a study was carried out that compared their
current replacement policy on shear pump bearings with
r ( f , z ( r ) )=
other replacement policies, including one that used
EXAKTTM.
exp(0.2626* Fe+I.O52*Pb) The results show clearly that replacements that are made
according to the output from EXAKTThcan save substantial
amounts of money compared to other approaches.
Blending together the risk model and economic
Altogether 25 histories were used in the study - a
considerations is then achieved by first establishing the
history means maintenance and condition monitoring
economic consequence associated with replacing the item, in
records for a unit. The condition of the bearings was
this case a transmission, on a preventive basis and the cost
monitored by vibration readings provided by an
associated with replacing it subsequent to unexpected failure. accelerometer, and the readings provided 21 vibration
For the transmission example the cost consequence associated
covariates. Besides this data, age-based data was also
with a failure replacement compared to a preventive
compiled that included information on maintenance actions
replacement was 4.5 greater. Using this enables Figure 7 to be
(events), replacements and failures over time.
obtained.
First of all, it was found that only 3 of the 21 covariates
being measured were significant. That is, the analysis was
not improved by using 18 ofthem. This alone means that the
collection, storage, compilation and analysis of much of the
data could be eliminated with obvious gains in the productive
use of time.
But the real pay-off from using EXAKTTM is illustrated by
the calculation that the average replacement cost under
Campbells current system of $59.46/day could be reduced to
only $26.83/day using the optimum policy calculated by the
software. Thats an impressive 55% saving.
Further, Campbells current average time to replace the
bearings was 157 days compared with the EXAKTTM
recommendation of 173 days, a lifetime increase of 10.2%.
That means a lower annual cost of bearings, and fewer
Worklng Age-3623 p]
Z=Q.-?rm +?.%mad
maintenance intrusions on the machinery.
Additional details can be found in the paper [Ref. 161. A
very detailed application ofthe modeling approach discussed
Figure 7: EXAKT Replacement Recommendation
in this paper to equipment subject to condition monitoring by
vibration analysis is provided in [Ref. 171
Once the Replacement Decision Chart is obtained the CM
inspector then plots on the chart then result of the inspection
94 2002 PROCEEDlNGS, ftrinuol RELIABILITY aod MAINTAINABILITY SympOSIUnl
4.2. Cardinal River Coals condition monitoring is "impossible" since there will be very
The paper [Ref. 171 discusses work completed at Cardinal few, if any, failures observed. This is not the case.
River Coals in Canada to improve the existing oil analysis The purpose of condition monitoring (CM) certainly is to
condition-monitoring program being undertaken for wheel mitigate the consequence of failures. However, in the context
motors. of optimization one is always examining trade-offs. So, while
Oil analysis results from a fleet of 55 haul truck wheel the outcome o f C M may result in a substantial reduction in the
motors were analyzed along with their respective failures and number of failures that may have been experienced prior to the
repairs over a nine-year period. Using the proportional- implementation of CM, a question that could be asked is: Is
hazards model (PHM) approach, the key condition variables this reduction economically justifiable?
relating to failures were found from among the 19 elements Our experience is that CM does substantially improve plant
monitored, plus sediment and viscosity. Those key variables - reliability, but we also note that there are often significant
only two, iron and sediment- were then incorporated into a premature removals due to misinterpretation o f the signals that
decision model that provided an unambiguous and optimal emanate from various forms of CM. In the wheel motor study
recommendation on whether to continue operating a wheel referred to above there were many CM records associated with
motor or to remove it for overhaul on the basis of data the 138 wheel motors associated with a fleet of haul trucks in
obtained from an oil sample. an open pit mine. Oil analysis was used to monitor the health
Wheel motor failure implied extensive planetary gear or sun of the wheel motors, and rules were used to decide when the
gear damage necessitating the replacement of one or more wheel motor should be removed. We had no wheel motors
major internal components in a general overhaul. The decision removed due to unexpected failure while in operation. We had
model, when triggered by incoming data, provided both a 94 wheel motors removed due to CM readings. Examining the
recommendation based on an optimal decision policy as well maintenance reports associated with the "rebuilds" it was
as provide an estimate of the unit's remaining useful life identified that 32 of the motors could be classed as "failures",
(RUL). By optimizing the times of repair as a function both of i.e. had been removed shortly before one might have expected
age and condition data a 20-30% potential savings in overhaul a functional failure, whereas the other 62 could be classed as
costs over existing practice was identified. "premature removals". That is, they had useful life left in them
4.3. The MTR Corporation and could have safely been left in service. So when building
Hong Kong's Mass Transit Railway keeps 2.4 million the risk model for wheel motor failures the 32 "good"
people on the move every weekday, making it one of the most removals were treated as "failures" and the other 62 as
heavily utilized mass transit systems in the world. "suspensions". (i.e. only 34% of the removals were "good"
Committed to continuous improvement, the MTR removals)
Corporation has embarked upon an $8 billion 5-year capital
works program to bring about improvements in the areas of 5. THE FUTURE
customer service, and environmental and station system
management. These will result in better services for Funding has been secured for a further period of three years
passengers. to continue the development of theory, primarily through the
The same dedication to excellence is reflected in their research students and post-doctoral fellows and associated
approach to maintenance. The MTR Corporation recently put tools, primarily software enhancement to EXAKT, through the
EXAKTTM to work on ball bearing failures in its traction staff of the CBM Laboratory. The development work is
motors. In-service failures were averaging 9/year, and each substantially influenced through semi-annual meetings that
failure resulted in - (or had the potential to result in) - take place between CBM Lab staff and consortium members.
stoppage of an entire subway line with severe consequences The overall goal of the work that is taking place during the
for its passengers. period 2001 -2003 is to enhance maintenance managers'
In this case, the condition of the bearings was monitored by decision-making when dealing with equipment whose health is
tracking changes to the color of the lubricating grease - the monitored through either oil analysis or vibrarion moniroring.
darker the color, the more definite was the signal that The planned work would enhance the EXAKT software
deterioration was occurring. For consistency, a "color card" (version 2.2 released in June 2000 to Consortium members) in
was developed that was used to compare various color tones three aspects:
with the grease, and to establish which "Code Number" to 5.1. Software features. This includes:
assign - colors were graded Code I to Code 4. Enhancing data cleaning features
EXAKTT" used the color codes as its input for the parts' -Assisting in the integration of EXAKT with CMMSs
condition, and additional data was used for failure and or EAM systems of Consortium members
maintenance-event histories. The output indicated that Enhancing data base flexibility: organizing data in a
inspections intervals should be shortened from 3% years to sequential form
annually, and by doing so the failures could be reduced to only Including two types of analysis, such as oil and
Ifyear compared with the previous 91'year. Taking into vibration, in one model
account the "total costs" associated with the maintenance and 5.2. Statistical features. This includes:
replacement of the bearings - increased time on inspections, Enhancement of the general statistical analysis option
more that offset by fewer failures - the reduction in costs will Estimation of the conditional reliability function and
amount to 55% of the pre-EXAKTTM costs. remaining useful life
It should be noted that while it may be thought that to build 5.3. Model building features. This includes:
a proportional hazards risk model for equipment subject to