Paragas, Bea Joreen B 3AR8 NS

The Big one

Widespread damage and tens of thousands of deaths -- thats what is in store for
Manila when an anticipated large earthquake strikes the Philippines, something
experts say could happen at any time. The city straddles the West Valley Fault,
which is capable of producing earthquakes larger than magnitude 7, officials said.
The warning comes just weeks after a massive tremor devastated the South Asian
country of Nepal, killing at least 8,500 people and turning villages to rubble. (Ross,
2015)
The West Valley Fault that runs from the heights of Sierra Madre down to Laguna. It
crosses the eastern side of Quezon City, western side of Marikina, western part of
Pasig, eastern part of Makati, parts of Taguig, and Muntinlupa.
The fault has moved four times in the past 1,400 years. On average, it moves every
400 years, +/- 10 to 100 years, maybe, Solidum says. The last time an earthquake
occurred along the West Valley fault was in 1658, around 355 years ago. (Luces,
2013)
Reports gathered by Bulatlat show that up to 35,000 residents of Metro Manila
would die and up to three million others would need to be evacuated. In addition,
some 175,000 buildings would be damaged. The pressure of collapsed buildings and
the inability to rescue those who would be trapped inside would cause most of the
deaths. (Makilan, 2004)
With its current population of 10 million, Metropolitan Manila, which is composed of
13 cities and four municipalities, is densely populated with several clusters and
districts having high-rise buildings close to each other. Investigations done by
various disaster units and fire departments a few years ago found many buildings
did not comply with construction standards and that these are prone not only to
fires but also to damage by earthquakes of any scale. The devastation would be so
big even disaster response authorities cannot simply cope with it. And it even looks
like disaster preparedness occupies a low priority among officials down to the
municipal level. (Makilan, 2004)

In our lifetime?
It might be impossible to predict when the next earthquake may occur but scientists
can pin down what is called a recurrence interval or the average time span between
earthquake occurrences.
For the West Valley Fault, four major earthquakes have been determined to have
taken taken place in the last 1,400 years. It has a recurrence interval of 400 to 500
years. The last major earthquake originating from the fault was recorded in 1658 or
357 years ago.
This means that it may be time soon perhaps in our lifetime, or that of our
children for another major movement in the fault.
The Philippine archipelago is sandwiched in between two opposite subduction zones
that of the Eurasian Plate (South China Plate) which subducts (is forced under)
Luzon along the Manila Trench and that of the Philippine Sea Plate that subducts
toward the west along the East Luzon Trench. These zones explain high seismic
activity in Luzon.
In a joint study with the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and the
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Phivolcs looked at 18 earthquake
scenarios. The three organizations selected three scenarios for detailed damage
analysis: a 7.2-magnitude earthquake from the West Valley Fault, an offshore 7.9-
magnitude earthquake from the Manila Trench and a 6.5-magnitude earthquake
hitting Manila Bay.
That of the West Valley Fault, a 100-kilometer fault that runs through six cities in
Metro Manila and nearby provinces, is considered the worst-case scenario. This is
The Big One.

While the strongest earthquake recorded in the country was an offshore magnitude
8.3 earthquake in Mindanao in the 1920s, and certain seismological models predict
the possibility of another offshore 8.5-magnitude earthquake, a major West Valley
Fault movement could result in a disaster of never-before-seen proportions.
The longer the fault runs, Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum Jr. said, the higher the
magnitude. And a higher magnitude also means a longer duration.
The larger the earthquake, the longer the shaking, he said, adding that a major
quake will probably last at least 30 seconds based on a duration magnitude formula.
A magnitude 7.2 earthquake that lasts for at least 30 seconds? If that happens in
the West Valley Fault, about 34,000 people may die. That staggering estimate does
not take into account the toll from other disasters that may follow, like fires.
(Sabillo, 2015)

Vulnerabilities
According to the Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS),
a 7.2-magnitude earthquake from the West Valley Fault will result in the collapse of
170,000 residential houses and the death of 34,000 people. Another 114,000
individuals will be injured while 340,000 houses will be partly damaged.
At least seven bridges will fall off while 10 percent of public buildings will be heavily
damaged.
The 4,615 kilometers of water distribution pipes will suffer 4,000 points of breakage.
Thirty kilometers worth of electric cables will be cut and 95 kilometers of
communication cables will be disconnected. Cellular phone service will be
congested and out of use.
Of the structures that will be damaged, those of informal settlers will have a higher
damage ratio.
People living in buildings may be trapped inside elevators as electricity fails.
Of the 34,000 people projected to die within an hour of the earthquake, 90 percent
will be killed from the pressure of collapsed structures. Some of them will initially
survive but will die if they are not immediately rescued.
About 20,000 people will be trapped in damaged buildings and burnt to death.
While many of those in informal communities will survive the main quake, a number
will die from the fires, which will be triggered by short circuits and leakage from gas
tanks.
Several fires will originate from factories, hospitals and kitchens. The scenario,
which is assumed to occur at nighttime, predicts the fires will burn 1,710 hectares of
land, claiming 18,000 lives.
Ambulances will be unable to get through the streets and bodies will be lined along
the road. The scenario is reminiscent of the horrors of Supertyphoon Yolanda
although the study was released back in 2004.
The destruction, together with the losses that the economy will suffer, will
constitute a national crisis, the study said. (Sabillo, 2015)

A grim picture
When the Big One strikes, it will be felt this way.
Movement will start along the fault, several kilometers below the ground. It will
move horizontally and will cause vibration or shaking, Solidum said.
At Intensity 8, which will be felt in Metro Manila and possibly Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna
and Cavite, people will find it difficult to remain standing. Buildings and houses will
suffer heavy damage, especially those not constructed to withstand earthquakes.

There will be many aftershocks and this will last for a week or so. The aftershocks
may number hundreds or thousands but only structures already weakened by the
main earthquake will be further damaged.
There will be landslides and, especially near the fault, there will be permanent
changes in the landscape as the quake ruptures the ground.
The study paints a grim picture, of people feeling a sudden jolt and then the shaking
of the ground.
You fall to the ground, unable to keep standing. You hear a booming sound. You
hear screams from people inside their homes. You hear breaking glasses. Telephone
and power poles sway violently. Then the power goes off. In front of you, the village
road is heaving, as if you are riding waves. The strong ground shaking goes on for
50 seconds. It is the longest 50 seconds of your life, the text says.
It tells of the panic and confusion that will follow, of being cut off from the rest of
the country and living in open spaces.
But it also serves as a great reminder of the need to be prepared and for authorities
to improve risk reduction and management systems. Today, Thursday, the MMDA
and thousands of participating groups will hold the largest earthquake drill to be
held in Metropolitan Manila.
We are counting on your participation, the Metro Manila Shake Drill website says.
Below that announcement, a timer counts down the days and hours before the
earthquake drill.
Alfredo st. cor. Dapitan
But there will be no timer for the Big One. (Sabillo, 2015)

Sampaloc, Manila

Not transected by the west valley fault but inside the

100 km radius