Preliminary

TSQ Discussion Paper

2001/02 - No.6

Structure, Property, and Simulation Results of

TSQ Model

New Version of TSQ Model QM0111

December 2001

Shinji YOSHIOKA*
JICA-TSQ, BAPPENAS

* The author is a JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) Expert to BAPPENAS (National
Development Planning Agency of Indonesian Government) from CAO (Cabinet Office of Japanese
Government). But the opinions expressed in the paper are derived from the author’s study results and are
not the official views of JICA, BAPPENAS, CAO, or any government. The author is grateful to the
colleagues at BAPPENAS for their insightful feedback to this study and also thankful to Mr. Ramli Ripai,
BAPPENAS, for his assistance in data processing. The author’s contact point is yoshioka@link.net.id.
1. Summary

JICA-TSQ at BAPPENAS has constructed a new version of Indonesian quarterly

macroeconometric model, QM0111. Its main features are following:

(1) Rather small but a complete macroeconometric model, based on a traditional

Keynesian demand-pulling model.
(2) Including five sectors, such as demand, foreign, state government, prices, and
monetary.
(3) Total 100 variables, 74 endogenous and 26 exogenous variables. 31 variables are
derived by structural functions.

This paper deals with following topics on TSQ model:

(1) Theoretical framework of a traditional Keynesian macroeconometric model.

(2) Structure of TSQ model, such as functions and definitions.
(3) In-sample simulation results of partial and final tests.
(4) Property of TSQ model, such as a multiplier analysis.
(5) Out-sample simulation results, such as a short-term projection of Indonesian
economy until the last quarter of 2002.
(6) A brief concluding remarks.

Key Words: Econometric Model Simulation, Outlook, And Economic Growth

JEL Classification: C32, E17, O41

1
1. An Introduction – What is a Macroeconometric Model?

This paper reports a new TSQ model version QM0111 (November 2001), its structure,
property, and some simulation results. This model is based on quarterly data and rather
small but includes complete Indonesian macroeconomic realities and constructed totally
according to a concept of traditional Keynesian macroeconometric model, at which the
demand will decides the output level. Before the report of the specific model, this
chapter focuses on a theoretical framework on Keynesian macroeconometric models in
general1. What is a traditional Keynesian macroeconometric model?

There is no concrete definition about a macroeconometric model with a broad consensus

among economists. Its theoretical structure could be, however, admitted by a lot of
economist as following2. It should include following six sectors, such as demand,
production, foreign, prices, labor, and money:

(1) Demand
P − P−1 E * PF E * PF
(EQ1-1) Y = d (Y − T , R − ) + G + x(Y F , ) − m(Y , )
P−1 P P
(2) Production
(EQ1-2) Y = h ( L, K )
or
L = h −1 (Y , K ) = k (Y )
(3) Foreign
E * PF E * PF E − E −1
(EQ1-3) Px(Y F , ) − EP F m(Y , ) + c( R − R F − )=0
P P E −1
(4) Prices
P − P−1 P−1 − P− 2 Y −Y P
(EQ1-4) = + f( )
P−1 P− 2 YP
(5) Labor
LP − L W *L
(EQ1-5) P
= g( )
L P *Y
(6) Money
M
(EQ1-6) = l (Y , R)
P
where
Y Output (real)
T TAX (real)
G Government Expenditure (real)
R Interest Rate (nominal)
P Prices (nominal)
E Exchange Rate on a local currency basis (nominal)
L Labor (number)
1
Hereafter, a traditional Keynesian macroeconometric model is called simply a macroeconometric model.
2
For example, Hayashi (2000), Greene (1999), Kennedy (1998), and. Maddala (2001) are recommended as generic
textbooks for the econometrics.

2
 K Capital Stock (real)
W Wage (nominal)
M Money Supply (nominal)
d Domestic Demand Function
x Export Function
m Import Function
h Production Function
k Inverse Product Function
c International Private Capital Movement Function
f Price Adjustment Function
g Labor Demand Function
l Money Demand Function

The upper suffix of “F” indicates foreign variables and YP and LP are defined as full
employment output and labor, respectively. The lower suffix, off course, indicates a lag
term. Usually, foreign variables, such as YF and PF, are given from the outside of a
model and policy variables, such as T and G and M are treated as exogenous.

(EQ1-1) indicates an IS curb. In a short-term3, the output will be determined from this
equation because the adjustment of prices and productive factors, such as labor and
capital stock, is not perfect. The right-hand of this equation consists of four terms. They
are domestic demands, government expenditures, exports and imports. The d is a
demand function. Its first partial differential coefficient is assumed positive and the
second is negative (d1>0 and d2<0). The x is an export function. Both first and second
partial differential coefficients are assumed positive (x1, x2>0). The m is an import
function. Its first partial differential coefficient is usually assumed positive and the
second is negative (m1>0 and m2<0).

(EQ1-2) reports a production function. In a long-term, the output will be determined

from this equation because the adjustment of prices and productive factors, such as
labor and capital stock, is assumed perfect. At the second equation of (EQ1-2) the
differential coefficient is assumed positive (k>0).

(EQ1-3) describes the BOP curb where the exchange rate is to adjust the total balance.
When the adjustment of exchange rate is perfect, total balance should be adjusted to
zero. The x and m are an export and an import functions same as (EQ0-1). The c is an
international capital mobility function. Its differential coefficient assumed positive
(a1>0).

(EQ1-4) indicates a Phillips curb with the inflation adjustment and expresses the
adjustment mechanism of the equilibrium in a goods and services market of a model.
The f is a price function. Its differential coefficient is assumed positive (f1≧0). When
this coefficient is equal to zero (f1=0), prices are then perfectly rigid and when it is
infinite (f1=∞), the price adjustment is then immediately done.

3
There could be a lot of discussions about “short-term” and “long-term.” Aothough it might be a tortology,
“short-term” is defined the duration when the adjustment of prices and productive factors are imperfect while that
during “long-term” is perfect.

3
(EQ1-5) expresses the mechanism of the adjustment of employment or unemployment
according to the relative share between the labor and the capital. The g is a labor
demand function and its differential coefficient is assumed positive (g1>0).

(EQ1-6) describes an LM curb that reveals the equilibrium in a monetary market. The l
is a money demand function. Its first partial differential coefficient is assumed positive
and the second is negative (l1>0 and l2<0).

The production function (EQ1-1) can be substituted into the labor demand function
(EQ1-5). Suppose that the policy variables, such as G, T, and M are regarded exogenous
and lagged variables are given, we can obtain the linear approximation of whole model
system near the equilibrium as following:

(EQ1-7)
 f1 1 
 p
− 0 0 0 
Y P
 W * (k1 *Y − k) k1 W k g1 * k 
g1 * ( )+ P − g1 * 2 * 0 0  ∆Y   0 
 P *Y L P Y P *Y  ∆P   
2
0
 M     ∆ M 
 l1 0 l2 0 ∆W =  
P2  P 
 2   
 E * PF  E * PF  E * PF2  ∆R   0 
− E * PF * m1 x − x2 * + m2 *  0 c1 x2 * PF − PF * m − m2 *
 P  P  P  ∆E  ∆G − d1 * ∆T
 
 d2 E * PF E * PF PF PF 
1− d1 + m1 + x2 2 − m2 * 2 0 − d2 − x2 * + m2 *
 P−1 P P P P 

Each row of five by five matrix at left-hand of equation (EQ1-7) shows following
equilibriums:
(1) The first row decides the equilibrium of prices.
(2) The second reveals the equilibrium of productive factor markets.
(3) The third reports the equilibrium of monetary market.
(4) The fourth describes the equilibrium at the balance of payment.
(5) The fifth presents the equilibrium of real output level.

Another implications from equation (EQ1-7) are as follows. When the Marshall-Lerner
condition is satisfied, following equations (EQ1-8) and (EQ1-9) hold:
2
E * PF  E * PF 
(EQ1-8) x − x2 * + m2 *   < 0
P  P 
E * PF2
(EQ1-9) x2 * P − P * m − m2 *
F F
>0
P
The left-hand of equation (EQ1-8) is, off course, same as the element at the fourth row
and the second column of the first matrix of equation (EQ1-7) while that of equation
(EQ1-9) is same as the element at the fourth row and the fifth column. And also the
element at the fifth row and fifth column is same as the differential coefficient of the
real trade balance affected by the exchange rate then the following equation (EQ1-10)
holds:
 PF PF 
(EQ1-10) −  x 2 * − m2 * <0
 P P 

4
This is a whole system of a macroeconometric model. But in Indonesia, we could not
successfully derive the production function and the labor sector because we cannot
obtain reliable labor statistics in a quarterly basis. The TSQ model then consists of four
sectors, such as demand, foreign, prices and monetary, among above-mentioned sectors.
Moreover, since TSQ model is developed in a government agency, we include a small
state government sector. Finally, TSQ model contains five sectors, such as demand,
foreign, state government, prices, and monetary.

A macroeconometric model is usually prepared according to following steps4:

(1) Data and database definition.
(2) Estimation of functions.
(3) Model simulations

Finally, a property of a macroeconometric model is evaluated by in-sample and/or

out-sample simulation results. A partial, a total and a final tests are employed in general.
The first test is also called a zero level check or a static simulation and evaluates each
structural function’s explanatory power because at this stage, all of right-hand variables
are given from outside of a model. At the second test, predetermined endogenous
variables and exogenous variables are given. The third test is called a dynamic
simulation in other words and evaluates overall property of a model. At this stage, all of
endogenous variables are solved in a model consistency while endogenous variables are
given. For this version of TSQ model, I completed a partial and a final test.

Related to software, I employ TSP and EViews for estimation of equations and an
econometric model simulation system developed at TSQ and based on Visual BASIC
for model simulations5. TSP and EViews are internationally famous and well-adopted
software for econometric analysis. The original TSQ model simulation system solves an
econometric model with a Gauss-Seidel method and provides a lot of utilities.

This paper consists of 6 chapters. This chapter, an introduction, develops some

theoretical aspects of a macroeconometric model; chapter 2 provides a brief structure of
new version of TSQ model QM0111; the third chapter deals with a property of TSQ
model, revealing some in-sample simulation results that include a partial and a final
tests results; chapter 4 focuses on a property of TSQ model with typical policy
simulations in in-sample periods, which shows some multiplier analyses; chapter 5
reports out-sample simulation results that include a short-term projection of Indonesian
economy until the last quarter of 2002; finally, the sixth chapter stresses some
concluding remarks.

This paper also aims to reveal a comprehensive procedure of macroeconometric model

analysis, such as estimation of equations, simulations, evaluations, and possible
analyses.

4
More detail, please see Appendix 2 of Yoshioka (1998).
5
TSP is a trademark of TSP International, Eviews is that of Quantitative Micro Software, and Visual BASIC is that
of Microsoft Corp.

5
2. Structure of TSQ Model Version QM0111

This chapter reports the structure of TSQ model, which consists of 74 endogenous and
26 exogenous variables apart from dummy variables. Among 74 endogenous variables,
31 variables are derived by structural equations, which are estimated by the ordinary
least square or other methods. This chapter shows all of these structural equations,
abstracting dummy variables, and all of definitions. It is recommended to refer a
complete equations list at APPENDIX 1 and a complete variables list at APPENDIX 2.

Table 1 reports number of variables employed in TSQ model by sectors and types.

Table 1 Summary of Variables in TSQ Model

Unit: Number
Endogenous Exogenous Sub-Total
Function Definition
Demand Sector 5 17 6 28
Foreign Sector 9 13 6 28
State Government Sector 5 8 5 18
Prices Sector 9 3 4 16
Monetary Sector 3 2 4 9
Sub-Total 31 43 25 99
Note: Other than above listed variables, population is also employed in the model as an
exogenous variable. The number of total variables is then 100.
Source: Author

One of the most remarkable points is that I employ a special dummy variable, which
represents a drastic fluctuation of the exchange rate during the Asian monetary crisis.
The exchange rate index is regressed by a linear time trend in a logarithmic manner and
I obtain following results:

(EQ2-1) LOG(INEXA) = 3.7401 + 0.2461 * LOG(TIME)

(122.548) (24.968)
RR = 0.927, DW = 0.619, SE = 0.061, SAMPLE = 1985:1 to 1997:2

I take residuals between actual exchange rate index and that estimated by a linear time
trend according to the above equation (EQ2-1) for this special dummy, named
DUMCRIS6. Chart 1 reports this dummy. This regression results, off course, does not
make any economic sense. But I employ this dummy variable for a test case when it
indicates somehow statistical significance to a sizable degree7. This might be improved
in the future, looking for a stable economic relation in a long-term among economic
variables.

6
Yoshioka (2001) reveals the possibility that Indonesian exchange rate leaved its time trend from January 1998, but I
employ, here, the third quarter of 1997 as a start of the Asian monetary crisis according to the broad consensus.
7
Fukuchi (2000) introduced this concept of dummy for the crisis. His estimation results make economic sense.

6
Chart 1 DUMCRIS

DUMCRIS
1.8
1.6
1.4

1.2
1
0.8
0.6

0.4
0.2
0
3

2
Q

Q
97

97

98

98

98

98

99

99

99

99

00

00

00

00

01

01
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20
Source: Author’s estimation

2.1 Demand Sector

Since the demand sector decides the output level in TSQ model, it is apparently one of
the most important sectors. Structural estimated equations in demand sector are a
consumption function, an investment function, an export and an import functions, and a
net factor income function. Other variables, including GDP are obtained by definitions.

2.1.1 Consumption Function

I estimate this consumption function with some elements of rational expectations. The
consumption is usually assumed as a function of the disposable income. I do not,
however, employ actual disposable income but expected one. The upper suffix “EXP”
and “ACT” indicates expected and realized value, respectively, while the lower suffix
means a lag term. Suppose that the consumption function is estimated by a normal
linear function of a disposable income, we then obtain following equation (EQ2-2):

(EQ2-2) CPR = α + β * YDR EXP

where
CPR Consumption (real)
YDR Disposable Income (real)
α and β Estimated Parameters (0<α and 0<β<1)

Expected disposable income YDREXP is, off course, not observed while other variables
can be obtained from published statistics. When an adjustment coefficient for the
disposable income is introduced and a static expectation is assumed, we obtain
following equations (EQ2-3) and (EQ2-4):

7
(EQ2-3) YDR EXP − YDR EXP −1 = θ * (YDR ACT − YDR ACT −1 )
and
(EQ2-4) YDR EXP − (1 − θ ) * YDR EXP −1 = θ * YDR ACT
where
θ Adjustment Coefficient (0<θ≦1)

Multiplying equation (EQ2-2) at the previous term with (1-θ) for both left- and
right-hands, we then obtain following equation (EQ2-5):

(EQ2-5) (1 − θ ) * CPR−1 = (1 − θ ) * α + (1 − θ ) * β * YDR EXP −1

Subtracting equation (EQ2-5) from equation (EQ2-2), we then obtain following

equation (EQ2-6):

(EQ2-6)
CPR − (1 − θ ) * CPR−1 = (α + β * YDR EXP ) − ((1 − θ ) * α + (1 − θ ) * β * YDR EXP −1 )
= θ * α + β * (YDR EXP − (1 − θ ) * YDR EXP −1 )

Substituting equation (EQ2-4) to (EQ2-6), we then obtain following equation (EQ2-7):

(EQ2-7) CPR − (1 − θ ) * CPR−1 = θ * α + β * YDR ACT

We successfully remove expected disposable income YDREXP and equation (EQ2-7)

consists of all actually observed data. When moving the second term of the left-hand of
equation (EQ2-7) to the right-hand, we then obtain following equation (EQ2-8):

(EQ2-8) CPR = θ * α + β * YDR ACT + (1 − θ ) * CPR−1

This equation (EQ2-8) is perfectly same as the consumption function derived on a

permanent income hypothesis. Actually, disposable income data are obtained from the
national income subtracted by the income tax and afterwards divided by the
consumption deflator. Moreover, I add a factor of the government external debt as an
element of rational expectation because consumers might expect a possible tax increase
according to it. Usually, a real or nominal interest rate should be included in a
consumption function. But none of interest rates indicate statistical significance at all.
This point must be improved in the future. Finally, consumption function is obtained as
follows:

Private Consumption Expenditure (real, 1993 prices) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

CPR = 3368.2 + 0.2859 * ((NI - INCTAX) / PCP * 100) + 0.6568 * CPR(-1)
(1.702) (5.332) (9.352)
- 0.04402 * ((ACOFTB * NEXA / 1000 ) / PCP * 100) + DUMMIES
(-2.465)
RR = 0.984, DW = 2.027, SE = 2033.4, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1, Durbin's h = -0.186847

8
2.1.2 Investment Function

Investment function is regarded to show the adjustment process of the actual capital
stock to that of optimal level. We then obtain some related equations (EQ2-9) to
(EQ2-12) as following:

(EQ2-9) IR = INETR + DPRR

(EQ2-10) (
INETR = KR ACT − KR ACT −1 = θ * KR OPT − KR ACT −1 )
(EQ2-11) KR = α + ν * Y−1
OPT

(EQ2-12) DPRR = λ * KR ACT −1

where
IR Gross Investment (real)
INETR Net Investment (real)
DPRR Depreciation of Capital (real)
KR Capital Stock (real)
Y Demand Factor (real)
θ Adjustment Coefficient (0<θ≦1)
α Independent Capital Stock from Demand Factor
ν Optimal Capital Coefficient
λ Depreciation Rate (0<λ<1)

Equation (2-9) is a definition of gross investment while equation (EQ2-10) presents the
core process of a capital stock adjustment. When the adjustment coefficient θ is equal
to one(θ=1), all capital stock adjustment will be completed at the contemporaneous
term to its optimal level. The smaller this value is, the more slowly the process proceeds
and vice-a-versa. Equation (EQ2-11) is a definition of an optimal capital stock, which
includes an independently required capital stock apart from a demand factor. This value
might be negative or positive. Here, a static expectation is employed. Equation (2-12) is
also a definition of capital depreciation.

Substituting equations (EQ2-10), (EQ2-11), and (EQ2-12) into equation (EQ2-9), we

then obtain following equation (EQ2-13):

(EQ2-13) IR = θ * (α + ν * Y−1 − KR ACT −1 ) + λ * KR ACT −1

= θ * α + θ *ν * Y−1 − (θ − λ ) * KR ACT −1

Equation (EQ2-13) is very normal investment function and do not include the optimal
capital stock, which is not observed. Usually the parameter for the capital stock is
assumed negative. The adjustment coefficient θ must be then larger than depreciation
rate λ (λ<θ). But actually, we cannot obtain so reliable data for capital stock KRACT
in Indonesia.

Then, substituting equation (EQ2-11) into equation (EQ2-10), we obtain following

equations (EQ2-14), (EQ2-15), and (EQ2-16):

9
(EQ2-14) INETR = KR ACT − KR ACT −1 = θ * (ν * Y−1 − KR ACT −1 )
and
(EQ2-15) KR ACT − (1 − θ ) * KR ACT −1 = θ *ν * Y−1
and
(EQ2-16) KR ACT −1 − (1 − θ ) * KR ACT − 2 = θ *ν * Y− 2

Apparently, equation (EQ2-16) is equal to equation (EQ2-15) at the previous term. In

the same manner, multiplying (1-θ) to equation (EQ2-13) at the previous term, we then
obtain following equation (EQ2-17):

(EQ2-17)
(1 − θ ) * IR−1 = θ * (1 − θ ) * α + θ * (1 − θ ) *ν * Y−2 − (θ − λ ) * (1 − θ ) * KR ACT − 2
Subtracting equation (EQ2-17) from equation (EQ2-13) on both left- and right-hand, we
then obtain following equation (EQ2-18):

(EQ2-18) IR − (1 − θ ) * IR−1
= −θ 2 * α + θ *ν * Y−1 − (θ − λ ) * KR ACT −1 + (θ − λ ) * (1 − θ ) * KR ACT −2
= −θ 2 * α + θ *ν * Y−1 − θ * (1 − θ ) *ν * Y− 2
− (θ − λ ) * KR ACT −1 + (θ − λ ) * (1 − θ ) * KR ACT − 2
= −θ 2 * α + θ *ν * Y−1 − θ * (1 − θ ) *ν * Y− 2
− (θ − λ ) * (KR ACT −1 − (1 − θ ) * KR ACT − 2 )

Substituting equation (EQ2-16) into the third term of right-hand of the final formula of
above equation (EQ2-18), we then obtain following equation (EQ2-19):

(EQ2-19) IR − (1 − θ ) * IR−1
= −θ 2 * α + θ *ν * Y−1 − θ * (1 − θ ) *ν * Y− 2 − (θ − λ ) *θ *ν * Y−2
= −θ 2 * α + θ *ν * Y−1 − θ *ν * (1 − λ ) * Y−2

Moving the second term of left-hand of above equation (EQ2-19) to right-hand, we then
obtain following equation (EQ2-20) as the final investment function formula:

(EQ2-20) IR = −θ 2 * α + θ *ν * Y−1 − θ *ν * (1 − λ ) * Y− 2 + (1 − θ ) * IR−1

This equation (EQ2-20) does not include capital stock variable explicitly but apparently,
the negative and depressing factor from capital stock to a gross investment is included
implicitly. Moreover, from this formula, since a large proportion of a gross investment
at the contemporaneous term is decided by the predetermined endogenous variables, the
whole model system gets more stable, for example, comparing with taking a formula of
the acceleration theory. For the demand factor, Y, we can assume real gross domestic
product (GDPR), real domestic absorption (DAR), or sum of GDPR and real imports
(GDPR + MR), etc. Among those, I obtained satisfactory results employing GDPR +
MR. Additionally, I include interest rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) factors into

10
investment function. But real interest rate deflated by investment deflator does not show
any statistical significance while FDI inflow does. I thus include nominal interest rate
for lending. This point might be improved in the future.

The final formula of investment function is as follows:

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (real, 1993 prices) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
IR = 2268.7 + 0.2107 * (GDPR(-1) + MR(-1)) - 0.1318 * (GDPR(-2) + MR(-2)) + 0.6530 * IR(-1)
(1.575) (3.555) (-2.566) (6.652)
- 134.9 * RLND + 0.4137 * (CPFDIB * NEXA / 1000 / PI * 100) + DUMMIES
(-2.372) (2.454)
RR = 0.957, DW = 2.540, SE = 1466.9, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1, Durbin's h = -3.3103

Equation (EQ2-20) can be also described in a different expression as following equation

(EQ2-21):

(EQ2-21) IR = a + b * Y−1 − c * Y−2 + d * IR−1

Following relations, expressed equations (EQ2-22) and (EQ2-23) must be kept:

(EQ2-22) a = −θ 2 * α
b = θ *ν
c = θ *ν * (1 − λ )
d = 1−θ

a
(EQ2-23) α =−
(1 − d )2
θ = 1− d
b
ν=
1− d
c
λ = 1−
b

The estimated results report a, b, c, and d as following (EQ2-24):

(EQ2-24) a = 2268.7
b = 0.2107
c = 0.1318
d = 0.6530

From equations (EQ2-23) and (EQ2-24), we then obtain α , θ , ν, and λ as

following equation (EQ2-25):

(EQ2-25) α = -18841
θ = 0.3470
ν = 0.6072

11
 λ = 0.3797

It is very difficult to evaluate whether the adjustment coefficient θ=0.3470 is slow or

rapid. Investment at the contemporaneous term adjusts one-third of the gap between the
optimal and actual capital stock in Indonesia. But this figure is apparently too small
compared with the depreciation rate. This is because the adjustment coefficient is
smaller then the depreciation rate (θ=0.3470<λ=0.3797). This implies that the gap
between the actual and the optimal coefficient rate is to be widening. On the other hand,
if we can regard the reverse number of depreciation rate as the average depreciation
term, it could be calculated 2.63 quarters but this figure is extraordinarily short. At this
moment, the huge depreciation rate seems to bring some inconsistency. But this
widening gap between the optimal and actual capital stocks might be one of the growth
limitation factors in Indonesia in the near future and it may be required to stimulate the
capital accumulation.

Optimal capital coefficient ν= 0.6072 seems plausible due to actual capital coefficient.
From another point of view, Indonesian independently required capital from the demand
factor indicates negative (α = -18841<0). This implies that Indonesian economy could
product its output without any capital stock to a certain extent. And also the marginal
capital coefficient is always larger than the average capital coefficient. Figure 1
provides some images about this point. This is one of the most typical features of
developing countries concerning to an investment function. But it must be paid a deep
attention to the possibility that these parameters might be distorted by interest rate, FDI
factor, and dummies included in the investment function and the government investment
is not separated from the private investment and included in the total investment data.

Figure 1 Images of Relation between Real Output and Real Capital

Real
Slope of Marginal
Capital
Capital Coefficient

Slope of Average
Capital Coefficient

Observed
Samples

Real
Output

12
2.1.3 Exports and Imports Functions and Net Factor Income Function

Exports and imports functions and net factor income function are bridge equations from
the foreign sector. Exports and imports in U.S. dollar on a balance of payment basis are
obtained in the foreign sector while the net factor income is exogenous. And these
variables are converted into those in local currency and define nominal variables of
GDP components correspondent to them. When constant terms are taken into
consideration, parameters to the correspondent demand factors appear almost equal to
approximate one.

Exports of Goods and Services (nominal) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

X = 2588.8 + 0.8638 * ((XGB + XSB) * NEXA / 1000) + DUMMIES
(4.334) (92.274)
RR = 0.993, DW = 1.499, SE = 3674.1, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Imports of Goods and Services (nominal) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

M = 2229.9 + 0.8669 * ((MGB + MSB) * NEXA / 1000) + DUMMIES
(3.554) (68.199)
RR = 0.989, DW = 1.618, SE = 3667.2, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Net Factor Income (nominal) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

NFI = -363.3 + 0.9430 * (INVOTHB * NEXA / 1000) + DUMMIES
(-1.505) (9.765)
RR = 0.987, DW = 1.433, SE = 860.2, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1

2.1.5 Definitions

Other than structural equations above-mentioned, a lot of definitions are employed in

the demand sector. When real variables are estimated by a structural equation, nominal
ones are derived by definitions and vice-a-versa. The gross domestic products, domestic
absorption, and so on are expressed as a sum of their components. Moreover, I add a per
capita GDP as a reference variable.

Definitions are reported as follows:

Exports of Goods and Services (real, 1993 prices)

XR = X / PX * 100

Imports of Goods and Services (real, 1993 prices)

MR = M / PM * 100

Domestic Absorption (real, 1993 prices)

DAR = CPR + CGR + IR

Gross Domestic Product (real, 1993 prices)

GDPR = CPR + CGR + IR + JR + XR - MR

Depreciation (real, 1993 prices)

DPRR = GDPR * 0.05 + DPRRSD

13
Private Consumption Expenditure (nominal)
CP = CPR * PCP / 100

Government Consumption Expenditure (nominal)

CG = CGR * PCG / 100

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (nominal)

I = IR * PI / 100

Domestic Absorption (nominal)

DA = CP + CG + I

Gross Domestic Product (nominal)

GDP = CP + CG + I + J + X - M

Gross National Product (nominal)

GNP = GDP + NFI

Net Indirect Tax (nominal)

TI = NINDTAX + TISD

Depreciation (nominal)
DPR = GDP * 0.05 + DPRSD

National Income (nominal)

NI = GNP - TI – DPR

Nominal Gross Domestic Product in US Dollar

GDPDOL = GDP / NEXA * 1000

per capita GDP in U.S. Dollar

GDPPC = GDPDOL * 4 / POP * 1000

Saving Ratio
RSAV = (NI - INCTAX - CP) / (NI - INCTAX) * 100

2.2 Foreign Sector

The foreign sector of TSQ model version QM0111 is based on a balance of payment.
The exchange rate is treated exogenous in the monetary sector. Variables of this sector
are all nominal.

2.2.1 Exports and Imports Functions

Exports are divided into two elements that are non-oil/gas and oil/gas exports while
imports are estimated in total. Since these trade variables are directly affects to the
exports and imports at demand sector, it is also very important to specify these variables
correctly. These three equations are estimated in real terms deflated by absolute or
relative prices. This could be describe as following equation (EQ2-26):

14
 TRADE Y
(EQ2-26) =α + β *
P P
where
TRADE Exports and/or Imports (nominal)
P Absolute or Relative Prices
Y Demand for Exports and/or Imports (nominal)
α, β Estimated Parameters

And equation (EQ2-26) is converted a linear function multiplied by prices. We then

obtain following equation (EQ2-27), where a constant term does not appear:

(EQ2-27) TRADE = β * Y + α * P

Exports and imports functions therefore have no constant term. Functions of non-oil/gas
exports and imports include relative prices while that of oil/gas exports does absolute oil
prices. This is because the price elasticity of oil/gas exports from Indonesia seems quite
small and maybe less than one.

Non-Oil/Gas Goods Exports (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

XNOGB = 8.465 * MDW - 2370.2 * (WPIX / (PXW * INEXA / 100)) + DUMMIES
(23.488) (-6.737)
RR = 0.933, DW = 0.845, SE = 979.2, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Oil/Gas Goods Exports (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

XOGB = 0.6693 * MDW + 102.8 * POIL + DUMMIES
(9.358) (29.554)
RR = 0.918, DW = 1.629, SE = 186.0, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Goods Imports (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

MGB = 0.2027 * GDPDOL - 772.0 * (WPIM / WPID) + DUMMIES
(35.212) (-3.486)
RR = 0.941, DW = 1.007, SE = 704.0, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Apart from oil/gas exports function, non-oil/gas exports and imports functions contain a
negative parameter for the relative prices (α<0). This implies that the trade would not
be required for an extraordinarily small economy (foreign and domestic) and that the
trade would occur when an economy reaches to a sizable external and internal demand
level. It is very plausible.

2.2.2 Services Exports and Imports functions

Service exports and imports functions are estimated based on the concept that these are
subject to goods exports and imports. Results seem satisfactory.

Service Exports (Credit) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

XSB = -330.7 + 0.08032 * (XGB + MGB) + DUMMIES
RR = 0.965, DW = 1.346, SE = 93.03, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

15
Service Imports (Debit) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
MSB = -106.8 + 0.1601 * (XGB + MGB) + DUMMIES
RR = 0.971, DW = 1.171, SE = 184.4, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

2.2.3 International Private Capital Mobility Functions

In Indonesian balance of payment statistics, only net flows of private international

capital mobility are available. They are divided into two categories, which are a foreign
direct investment (FDI) and others. The latter appears to indicate almost same concept
of portfolio investment. Both net capital flows are estimated mainly by Indonesian
domestic market size and interest rates differential between domestic and foreign. For
FDI function interest rates at rather longer terms are employed while for portfolio
investments those at shorter terms are adopted. Moreover, the accumulated investments
are taken into consideration for the latter.

Foreign Direct Investments (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

CPFDIB = -619.0 + 0.03144 * GDPDOL + 4.989 * (RSBI - LIBOR - GY(NEXA)) + Dummies
(-5.184) (9.737) (6.391)
RR = 0.870, DW = 1.771, SE = 271.9, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1

Portfolio Investments (Private Capital Others) (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

CPOTHB = 5810.9 + 0.09193 * GDPDOL + 19.45 * ((RSBI - LIBOR) / 4 - G(NEXA))
(3.663) (4.683) (2.360)
- 0.1098 * ACPOTHB(-1) + DUMMIES
(-4.017)
RR = 0.714, DW = 2.313, SE = 979.6, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1

2.2.4 Import Demand of the U.S. and Japan Functions

The demand for Indonesian exports consists of three elements. They are the U. S., Japan
and others. Among those, demand factors from the former two countries are estimated
by structural functions. They are directly linked with their domestic output.

Import Value of US (FIRST-ORDER SERIAL CORRELATION OF THE ERROR)

LOG(MDUS) = -18.49 + 2.654 * LOG(GDPUS) + DUMMIES
(-32.929) (42.015)
RR = 0.993, DW = 2.152, SE = 0.03059, RHO = 0.594, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1

Import Value of Japan (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(MDJA) = -31.46 + 2.724 * LOG(GDPJA) + DUMMIES
(-24.813) (28.038)
RR = 0.926, DW = 0.588, SE = 0.09283, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

2.2.5 Definitions

As a result that exports are divided into two categories, such as non-oil/gas and oil/gas,
total exports are derived as a sum of them. And in this sector, there are a lot of balance
variables of interest that are trade balance, current account, ratio of current account to
GDP, capital balance, total balance, and so on. They are calculated by definitions.

16
Definitions are reported as follows:

Goods Exports
XGB = XNOGB + XOGB

Trade Balance
TRDB = XGB – MGB

Invisible Balance
INVB = XSB - MSB + INVOTHB

Current Account
CURB = TRDB + INVB

Ratio of Current Account to GDP

CURBGDP = CURB * NEXA / 1000 / GDP * 100

Official Capital Net Inflows

COFTB = COFINFB - COFDRB

Private Capital Net Inflows

CPRTB = CPFDIB + CPOTHB

Accumulated Official Net Inflow (Government Debt Outstanding)

ACOFTB = ACOFTB(-1) + COFTB

Accumulated Foreign Direct Investments

ACPFDIB = ACPFDIB(-1) + CPFDIB

Accumulated Portfolio Investments

ACPOTHB = ACPOTHB(-1) + CPOTHB

Capital Balance
CAPB = COFTB + CPRTB

Total Balance
TOTB = CURB + CAPB

World Import Demand

MDW = MDUS + MDJA + MDOTH

2.3 State Government Sector

Since TSQ model is employed in a government agency that is BAPPENAS (National

Development Planning Agency), the state government sector is one of the most
interested. TSQ model employs a very simple state government sector, which consists
of 18 variables. Quarterly data on state government budget is estimated from published
annual statistics since they are not available in Indonesia. Apparently, quarterly data
availability helps more precise model building.

17
2.3.1 Oil/Gas revenues Function

State government’s oil/gas revenue function is a bridge function from oil/gas exports at
the foreign sector. It assumes that a sizable proportion of oil/gas exports should result in
state government revenues.

Oil/Gas Revenues (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

GROG = 476.6 + 0.6009 * (XOGB * NEXA / 1000) + DUMMIES
(3.557) (50.151)
RR = 0.982, DW = 1.519, SE = 729.1, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1

2.3.2 Routine Expenditures Function

State government routine expenditure function is also a bridge function from the
demand sector. At the demand sector, the government expenditure is normally defined
according to the concept of general government, which consists of the state and the
local governments and the social security fund. Several years ago, in Indonesia, local
government had been playing a very small role in economic activities but at present, its
share is growing rapidly due to the ongoing decentralization. In TSQ model, following
assumptions are employed:

(1) General government’s real consumption expenditure is exogenous.

(2) General government’s nominal consumption expenditure is defined as real value
multiplied by deflator.
(3) General government’s consumption expenditure deflator is estimated by a link with
other price variables.
(4) State government’s routine expenditure is estimated from general government’s
consumption expenditure.

These imply that general government is able to decide its consumption expenditures at
real level and routine expenditures of the state government is subject to it. It seems that
these assumptions are rather strong and do not always reflect the Indonesian economic
reality but it is normally assumed in a macroeconometric model that the general
government is able to decide its real expenditure level independently.

Routine Expenditures (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

GRE = -2617.1 + 1.872 * CG + DUMMIES
(-4.300) (21.305)
RR = 0.989, DW = 1.227, SE = 1979.9, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

2.3.3 Taxes Functions

State government tax revenues are divided into four categories, which are income tax,
value added tax, import duties, and other taxes. The last one is exogenous while the
former three taxes are estimated from its correspondent taxation base. Parameters of
income tax and value added tax show elasticity.

18
Income Tax (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(INCTAX) = -9.023 + 1.514 * LOG(GNP) + DUMMIES
(-37.742) (69.972)
RR = 0.995, DW = 0.877, SE = 0.08197, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:2

VAT, Sales Tax on Luxury Goods and Excise Duties (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(VAETAX) = -5.314 + 1.232 * LOG(CP) + DUMMIES
(-17.406) (42.543)
RR = 0.984, DW = 0.993, SE = 0.1137, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:2

Import Duties (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

IMPTAX = 210.0 + 0.02817 * (MGB * NEXA / 1000) + DUMMIES
(4.106) (8.937)
RR = 0.785, DW = 0.411, SE = 210.3, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:1

2.3.4 Definitions

Other than above-mentioned estimated variables, some variables are derived from
definitions while a sizable number of variables in this sector are treated as exogenous. It
seems normal in a macroeconometric model.

Government Total Revenues

GTR = GRR + GDR

Routine (Domestic) Revenues

GRR = GROG + GRNOG

Non-Oil/Gas Revenues
GRNOG = INCTAX + INDTAX + NONTAX

Indirect Tax
INDTAX = VAETAX + IMPTAX + OTHTAX

Government Total Expenditures

GTE = GRE + GDE

Net Indirect Tax (State Budget)

NINDTAX = INDTAX - SB
Government Balance
GBAL = GTR - GTE

Ratio of Government Balance to GDP

GBALGDP = GBAL / GDP * 100

2.4 Prices Sector

The price sector of TSQ model takes the domestic WPI price as a key deflator according
to a normal structure of a macroeconometric model. Money supply and exchange rate
decides the key deflator, which affects to almost all of variables in this sector. Yoshioka
(2001) reveals that in Indonesia, exchange rate affects strongly to prices.

19
2.4.1 WPI Components Functions

Since the domestic wholesale prices index (WPI) is employed as a key deflator of the
model, its estimation is very important. Here, the domestic WPI is derived from money
supply and exchange rate. In this function, demand factor is not included but money
supply will implicitly play a sizable role of demand factor proxy. Including a certain
demand factor, this equation fails in multi-collinearity. Other WPI components, such as
exports WPI and imports WPI are estimated with the key deflator, the domestic WPI
and relevant foreign prices.

Domestic Wholesale Price Index (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(WPID) = -1.287 + 0.2968 * LOG(M2) + 0.3366 * LOG(NEXA) + DUMMIES
(-12.138) (19.099) (12.929)
RR = 0.985, DW = 1.239, SE = 0.06109, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1

Exports Wholesale Price Index (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(WPIX) = 0.2463 + 0.5536 * LOG(WPID) + 0.3382 * LOG(PXW) + DUMMIES
(0.323) (7.535) (1.527)
RR = 0.982, DW = 1.016, SE = 0.09992, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Imports Wholesale Price Index (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(WPIM) = -1.098 + 0.5449 * LOG(WPID) + 0.6959 * LOG(PMW) +DUMMIES
(-3.809) (30.196) (9.509)
RR = 0.997, DW = 0.731, SE = 0.02636, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

2.4.2 CPI Function

Consumer prices (CPI) is derived from domestic WPI with a possible lag. The sum of
four quarter-lag parameters seems approximate one and the constant term is not so
statistically significant.

Consumer Price Index (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(CPI) = -0.09954 + PDL &2 <<SUM:0.9344>> LOG(WPID)(0:-3) + DUMMIES
(-1.705)
RR = 0.997, DW = 0.847, SE = 0.02669, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1
Polynomial Distributed Lag: &2 Degree = 1, FAR
0: + 0.3738 (74.208)
-1: + 0.2803 (74.208)
-2: + 0.1869 (74.208)
-3: + 0.0934 (74.208)
SUM: +0.9344

2.4.3 GDP Components Deflators Functions

Deflators of GDP components are estimated mainly by domestic WPI, which is the key
deflator, or relevant prices indices. The consumption deflator is estimated by consumer
prices. Exports and imports deflators are estimated by relevant WPI components, which
are, off course, estimated mainly by the domestic WPI. Foreign prices, such as those of
world exports and imports are treated as exogenous since TSQ model assumes that
Indonesia holds a so-called small country in an economic sense.

20
Deflator for Private Consumption (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(PCP) = 0.5365 + 0.9398 * LOG(CPI) + DUMMIES
(13.195) (96.850)
RR = 0.999, DW = 0.361, SE = 0.02040, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:2

Deflator for Government Consumption (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(PCG) = -0.3180 + 1.019 * LOG(WPID) + DUMMIES
(-1.919) (28.314)
RR = 0.980, DW = 0.962, SE = 0.08084, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Deflator for Gross Fixed Capital Formation (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(PI) = 0.8302 + 0.7928 * LOG(WPID) + DUMMIES
(9.028) (39.816)
RR = 0.994, DW = 1.225, SE = 0.04225, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:1

Deflator for Export of Goods and Services (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(PX) = -0.8954 + 1.237 * LOG(WPIX) + DUMMIES
(-5.113) (30.358)
RR = 0.988, DW = 0.714, SE = 0.07864, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

Deflator for Import of Goods and Services (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(PM) = -2.978 + 1.617 * LOG(WPIM) + DUMMIES
(-17.269) (42.956)
RR = 0.994, DW = 0.684, SE = 0.05521, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

2.4.4 Definitions

There remain a few definitions in this sector. The general wholesale prices and GDP
deflator are derived from definitions. Moreover, a variable of interest, an inflation rate,
is decided by a definition.

General Wholesale Price Index

WPI = WPID * 0.42396687 + WPIX * 0.22498575 + WPIM * 0.35104737 + WPISD

INFLAT : Inflation Rate

INFLAT = GY(CPI)

Deflator for Gross Domestic Product

PGDP = GDP / GDPR * 100

2.5 Monetary Sector

The monetary sector of TSQ model is rather small. It consists of some monetary
aggregates and three interest rates and the exchange rate. Here, SBI rate and M1 are
treated as exogenous. The SBI rate seems to play a role of the official discount rate in
Indonesia.

21
2.5.1 Interest Rates Functions

In an economic sense, deposit rate for saving and lending rate for borrowing are
important. These tow interest rates are estimated by an interest rate, a demand factor,
and a money supply. All of signs are correct as normally assumed and statistically
significant.

Time Deposit Rate (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

RITD = -16.57 + 0.9081 * RSBI + 10.89 * LOG(GDP) – 9.864 * LOG(M1) + DUMMIES
(-2.328) (13.772) (3.079) (-2.790)
RR = 0.925, DW = 1.526, SE = 2.052, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

Lending Rate (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

RLND = 20.56 + 0.3184 * RSBI + 5.082 * LOG(GDP) – 5.967 * LOG(M1) + DUMMIES
(6.417) (16.788) (2.675) (-3.265)
RR = 0.942, DW = 1.576, SE = 1.003, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

2.5.2 Money Supply Function

Since TSQ model exogenizes M1, which is another M2 component, the quasi money
supply is estimated by a demand factor and a proxy of its own rate. Here, time deposit
rate is employed as a proxy of the own rate of the quasi money.

Quasi Money Supply (ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

LOG(QM) = -7.022 + 1.623 * LOG(GDP) + 0.006869 * RITD + DUMMIES
(-25.907) (68.037) (4.164)
RR = 0.995, DW = 1.435, SE = 0.08601, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

2.5.3 Definitions

Broad money supply, M2, is defined as the sum of M1 and quasi money. Since
exchange rate is exogenous in the model, its index is calculated on a 1993=100 basis.
The year 1993 is a base year of GDP at constant prices.

Money Supply of Broad Definition

M2 = M1 + QM

Index of Rupiah Nominal Exchange Rate

INEXA = NEXA / (2066.85 + 2076.92 + 2098.60 + 2106.04) * 4 * 100

22
3. In-Sample Simulation Results of TSQ Model

For evaluating the model property, partial and final tests are completed in in-sample
terms. This chapter reports these results. While the first sub-chapter reveals the partial
test results, the second shows the final test results. For the latter, Theil’s U is employed
other than the residual sum of errors.

3.1 Partial Test Results

It is very difficult to evaluate results of partial test. I therefore report their root mean
square errors (RMSE), root mean square percentage errors (RMSPE), and charts of all
functions at Table 2 and Chart 3. It is recommended to refer both equations and
variables lists.

RMSE and RMSPE as derived by following equations (EQ3-1) and (EQ3-2):

∑ ( ACT − SIM t )
2
t
t =1
(EQ3-1) RMSE =
n

( ACTt − SIM t ) 2
n

∑
t =1 ACTt
(EQ3-2) RMSPE =
n

where
ACTt Actual Data Value at tth Period
SIMt Simulation Result Value at tth Period
n Number of Simulation Periods

Table 2 RMSE and RMSPE of Partial Test Results in 1996-2000

Units: Subject to APPENDIX2 and Percent
Variables RMSE RMSPE
CPR 1627.57 2.43
IR 1735.62 6.98
X 5164.24 5.72
M 6078.49 7.48
NFI 1389.10 9.80
XNOGB 1030.85 9.73
XOGB 145.44 6.03
MGB 969.32 11.51
XSB 111.49 8.29
MSB 178.47 6.01
CPFDIB 345.73 138.96
CPOTHB 1387.45 55.90
MDUS 6.16 2.46
MDJA 8.38 10.05
GROG 965.49 10.32
INCTAX 1052.27 8.59

23
 VAETAX 533.29 9.33
IMPTAX 270.87 39.42
GRE 6062.93 16.35
PCP 3.77 1.41
PCG 20.41 8.31
PI 12.35 5.30
PX 28.11 6.89
PM 14.03 5.45
WPID 19.54 8.97
WPIX 27.45 9.82
WPIM 5.22 2.15
CPI 5.08 2.92
QM 40769.52 8.73
RITD 2.38 11.21
RLND 1.16 5.19
Source: Author’s estimation

Chart 2 Partial Test Results of All Functions in 1996-2000

Partial Test : CPR Partial Test : IR

76000 40000
74000
35000
72000
70000 30000
68000
66000 25000
64000
20000
62000
60000 15000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Partial Test : X Partial Test : M

180000 140000
160000
120000
140000
100000
120000
100000 80000
80000
60000
60000
40000
40000
20000 20000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

24
 Partial Test : NFI Partial Test : XNOGB
0 14000

-5000 13000

-10000 12000

-15000 11000

-20000 10000

-25000 9000

-30000 8000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Partial Test : XOGB Partial Test : MGB

4500 13000
4000 12000
3500 11000

3000
10000
9000
2500
8000
2000
7000
1500
6000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
1 1 1 1 1 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1

Partial Test : XSB Partial Test : MSB

2000 5000

4500

1500 4000

3500

1000 3000

2500

2000
500
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1

25
 Partial Test : CPFDIB Partial Test : CPOTHB
3000 3000
2500 2000
1000
2000 0
1500 -1000
1000 -2000
500 -3000
-4000
0 -5000
-500 -6000
-1000 -7000
-1500 -8000
-9000
-2000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1

Partial Test : MDUS Partial Test : MDJA

350 105
330 100
310 95
290 90
270 85
250 80
230
75
210
70
190
65
170
60
150
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1

Partial Test : GROG Partial Test : INCTAX

25000 25000

20000 20000

15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
0 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
19 19 19 19 20 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
96 97 98 99 00 1 1 1 1 1
Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1

26
 Partial Test : VAETAX Partial Test : IMPTAX
14000 2500
13000
12000 2000
11000
10000 1500
9000
8000 1000
7000
6000
500
5000
4000
0
19 19 19 19 20
9 6Q 9 7Q 9 8Q 9 9Q 0 0Q 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
1 1 1 1 1 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1

Partial Test : GRE Partial Test : PCP

70000 350

60000
300
50000
250
40000
200
30000

20000 150

10000
100
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 19 19 19 19 20
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 9 6Q 97 9 8Q 99 00
1 1 1 1 1 1 Q1 1 Q1 Q 1

Partial Test : PCG Partial Test : PI

350 400

300 350

250 300

250
200
200
150
150
100
100
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 19 19 19 19 20
1 1 1 1 1 96 9 7Q 98 99 0 0Q
Q1 1 Q 1 Q1 1

27
 Partial Test : PX Partial Test : PM
600 500

500
400

400
300
300

200
200

100 100
19 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 19 20
96 97 98 99 00 96 97 98 99 00
Q1 Q Q Q1 Q Q1 Q 1 Q 1 Q1 Q 1
1 1 1

Partial Test : WPID Partial Test : WPIX

350 600

500
300
400
250
300
200
200
150 100

100 0
19 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 19 20
96 97 98 99 00 96 97 98 99 00
Q1 Q 1 Q 1 Q1 Q 1 Q1 Q 1 Q 1 Q1 Q 1

Partial Test : WPIM Partial Test : CPI

350 250

300
200

250
150
200

100
150

100 50
19 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 19 20
96 97 98 9 9Q 00 96 97 98 99 00
Q1 Q 1 Q 1 1 Q 1 Q1 Q 1 Q 1 Q1 Q 1

28
 Partial Test : QM Partial Test : RITD
700000 55
50
600000
45
500000 40
35
400000
30
300000 25
20
200000
15
100000 10
19 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 19 20
96 97 9 8Q 99 00 9 6Q 97 98 99 00
Q 1 Q1 1 Q 1 Q1 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1

Partial Test : RLND

40

35

30

25

20

15
19 19 19 19 20
9 6Q 97 98 99 00
1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1

NOTE: The continuous lines are actual values and the dotted are those of simulation
results.
Source: Author’s estimation

3.2 Final Test Results

For evaluating the final test results, I also employ the Theil’s U other than RMSE and
RMSPE adopted for a partial test. This is derived by following equation (EQ3-3):

∑ ( ACT
t =1
t − SIM t ) 2

n RMSE
(EQ3-3) U= =
n n n n

∑ ( ACTt ) 2 ∑ ( SIM t ) 2 ∑ ( ACTt ) 2 ∑ ( SIM t )2

t =1
+ t =1 t =1
+ t =1

n n n n

This Theil’s U can be decomposed into three elements; they are a bias proportion (UM),
a variance Proportion (US), and a covariance proportion (UC). The first proportion

29
represents a gap between the average of the actual and simulated values; the second
reports a degree of flexibility or variableness of simulated results; the last reflects errors
other than those between averages. These proportions are defined as following
equations (EQ3-4), (EQ3-5), and (EQ3-6):

2
 n n

 ∑ ACTt ∑ SIM t 
 t =1 − t =1 
 n n 

(EQ3-4) U M
=
(ACT − SIM ) 2 
=


n
RMSE 2
∑ ( ACT
t =1
t − SIM t )
2

n
(σ ACT − σ SIM )
2
(σ ACT − σ SIM )2
(EQ3-5) US = n
=
RMSE 2
∑ ( ACTt − SIM t )
2

t =1

n
2 * (1 - ρ ) * σ ACT * σ SIM 2 * (1 - ρ ) * σ ACT * σ SIM
(EQ3-6) UC = n
=
RMSE 2
∑ ( ACT − SIM t )
2
t
t =1

where
ACTt Actual Data Value at tth Period
ACT Average of Actual Data Value from 1st to nth Period, i.e.,
n

∑ ACT t
ACT = t =1

SIMt Simulation Result Value at tth Period

SIM Average of Simulation Result Value from 1st to nth Period, i.e.,
n

∑ SIM t
SIM = t =1

n Number of Simulation Periods

σACT Standard Error of Actual Data Value, i.e.,
2
 n

n
 ∑ ACTt
 ACT − t =1


∑  
( )
t
n
n
∑
2 t =1
ACTt − ACT t  
σ ACT = t =1 =  
n n
σSIM Standard Error of Simulation Result Value, i.e.,

30
 2
 n

n
 ∑
 SIM − t =1
SIM t 

∑  
( )
t
n
n
∑
2 t =1
SIM t − SIM t  
σ SIM = t =1
=  
n n
ρ Correlation Coefficient between Actual Data Value (ACTt)
and Simulation Result Value (SIMt), i.e.,,

∑ (ACT )( )
n

t − ACT * SIM t − SIM

ρ= t =1

∑ (ACT ) * ∑ (SIM )
n n
2 2
t − ACT t − SIM
t =1 t =1

∑ (ACT )( )
n

t − ACT * SIM t − SIM

= t =1

n * σ ACT * σ SIM

Usually, a lot of economists support that the smaller RMSP and RMSPE are, the better
the model is. Theil’s U is also based on a concept close to RMSE and RMSPE, then the
smaller, the better. Relating to decomposition of Theil’s U, apparently, the sum of these
three elements is equal to one. And a lot of economists agree that a model of good
property indicates small bias and variance proportions and large covariance proportion.
These relationships are very clear from equations (EQ3-4), (EQ3-5), and (EQ3-6).

Table 3 reports RMSE, RMSPE, Theil’s U, and its components, a bias proportion, a
variance Proportion, and a covariance proportion of all endogenous variables.

Table 3 Final Test results in 1996-2000

Unit: Subject to APPENDIX 2, percent and none

Variables RMSE RMSPE Theil’s U Bias Variance Covariance
Proportion Proportion Proportion
CPR 3720.53 5.50 0.02763 0.00950 0.11486 0.87564
IR 1865.63 6.06 0.03525 0.14409 0.29490 0.56101
XR 3905.00 13.55 0.06806 0.00022 0.16731 0.83247
MR 5621.51 19.08 0.10034 0.09487 0.19628 0.70885
DAR 4232.73 4.30 0.02105 0.06400 0.00825 0.92776
GDPR 6129.28 6.25 0.03048 0.00966 0.06975 0.92059
DPRR 306.46 6.25 0.03048 0.00966 0.06976 0.92058
CP 18624.91 10.19 0.05812 0.06831 0.02627 0.90542
CG 2207.59 13.60 0.07127 0.06822 0.09799 0.83380
I 6668.38 12.12 0.05933 0.08198 0.00893 0.90909
X 9085.00 9.58 0.04777 0.00316 0.04607 0.95077
M 7083.60 9.96 0.04623 0.09081 0.00761 0.90158
DA 25695.25 10.14 0.05556 0.08191 0.02266 0.89543
GDP 26690.89 10.35 0.05699 0.04608 0.00408 0.94984

31
NFI 1389.10 9.80 0.04154 0.00693 0.00000 0.99307
GNP 25985.80 11.03 0.05956 0.04668 0.00600 0.94732
TI 1451.89 61.89 0.05673 0.00003 0.00128 0.99869
DPR 1334.54 10.35 0.05699 0.04608 0.00408 0.94984
NI 23494.81 10.76 0.05699 0.05126 0.00053 0.94821
GDPDOL 3615.80 10.35 0.04189 0.18157 0.12566 0.69278
GDPPC 70.89 10.35 0.04121 0.18210 0.11779 0.70011
RSAV 3.21 40.50 0.08120 0.00020 0.00527 0.99454
TRDB 858.55 34.58 0.09510 0.03100 0.00925 0.95975
XGB 966.35 7.45 0.03526 0.02812 0.00502 0.96686
XNOGB 990.68 9.43 0.04570 0.03213 0.00621 0.96166
XOGB 147.97 6.16 0.02532 0.01094 0.28083 0.70823
MGB 741.15 7.68 0.03844 0.17866 0.15535 0.66599
INVB 217.31 6.83 0.02877 0.01249 0.22557 0.76194
XSB 170.29 12.70 0.06110 0.08161 0.00105 0.91734
MSB 308.90 10.90 0.04390 0.05574 0.24658 0.69768
CURB 879.95 140.92 0.25297 0.03973 0.01776 0.94251
CURBGDP 2.20 148.49 0.24399 0.03832 0.03244 0.92924
CPRTB 1645.55 34.18 0.24589 0.00601 0.10133 0.89266
CPFDIB 354.85 136.18 0.15389 0.07287 0.01797 0.90916
CPOTHB 1428.55 63.53 0.26463 0.00049 0.10738 0.89212
CAPB 1645.52 102.28 0.32095 0.00600 0.05484 0.93916
TOTB 1598.05 1178.89 0.40971 0.00108 0.04208 0.95684
ACPFDIB 1399.86 6.14 0.03045 0.75436 0.00012 0.24552
ACPOTHB 1566.73 1.75 0.00958 0.31923 0.03053 0.65024
MDW 15.64 1.07 0.00538 0.00045 0.20786 0.79169
MDUS 8.75 3.43 0.01726 0.07524 0.01927 0.90549
MDJA 8.38 10.05 0.05092 0.06095 0.38462 0.55442
GTR 3526.76 6.60 0.03686 0.00812 0.04631 0.94557
GRR 3526.77 8.00 0.04278 0.00812 0.12446 0.86742
GROG 1282.73 13.56 0.05088 0.01119 0.01109 0.97772
GRNOG 2915.99 8.75 0.05046 0.00390 0.08404 0.91206
INCTAX 1642.68 11.83 0.06763 0.01123 0.00001 0.98877
VAETAX 1272.48 16.01 0.07982 0.00164 0.08621 0.91215
IMPTAX 292.48 35.66 0.14054 0.02201 0.12582 0.85216
GTE 6062.94 11.82 0.06116 0.02979 0.03382 0.93638
GRE 6062.93 16.35 0.08158 0.02979 0.04650 0.92371
INDTAX 1451.89 11.73 0.06170 0.00003 0.11689 0.88308
NINDTAX 1451.89 46.28 0.10740 0.00003 0.29490 0.70507
GBAL 4207.79 8920.39 0.48530 0.02999 0.07464 0.89537
GBALGDP 1.68 9771.04 0.56443 0.04044 0.16823 0.79134
PCP 15.57 5.75 0.03297 0.15002 0.08940 0.76057
PCG 31.34 13.60 0.07176 0.05919 0.06162 0.87919
PI 28.04 11.67 0.05641 0.03119 0.06123 0.90758
PX 25.59 9.41 0.03779 0.07590 0.00085 0.92325
PM 35.18 12.54 0.05848 0.01328 0.03860 0.94812

32
PGDP 16.41 6.47 0.03425 0.15807 0.01238 0.82955
WPI 19.08 7.10 0.03663 0.04155 0.00350 0.95495
WPID 25.08 11.07 0.05224 0.03444 0.04704 0.91852
WPIX 30.03 9.90 0.04511 0.02973 0.00899 0.96128
WPIM 13.52 5.62 0.02780 0.02514 0.00094 0.97391
CPI 9.59 5.30 0.02947 0.10143 0.08662 0.81195
INFLAT 9.78 93.93 0.15089 0.00509 0.07256 0.92235
QM 81063.90 16.69 0.09770 0.02417 0.00833 0.96750
M2 81063.90 13.66 0.07990 0.02417 0.00319 0.97264
RITD 2.85 12.93 0.05602 0.05161 0.02166 0.92673
RLND 1.29 5.80 0.02632 0.01896 0.01583 0.96521
NOTE: This table does not include ACOFTB, COFTB, and INEXA because they are
derived only by exogenous variables.
Source: Author’s estimation

RMSPE of the gross domestic production (GDPR) is reported 6.25% while some
balance variables shows larger figures, for example, trade balance (TRDB) contains
34.58% error. The state government balance and its ratio to GDP report a large error.
This is mainly because Indonesian state budget had been balanced before the Asian
monetary crisis in 1997 and 1998 and their actual value were very small and close to
zero. Since Indonesian economy experienced a very drastic fluctuation during the Asian
monetary crisis period, errors are rather large. Theil’s U reports a fairly good property of
TSQ model other than some exceptional variables. Figures of Theil’s U of a lot of
variables are rather small. Its covariance proportion is sizably large while the bias and
variance proportions are rather small.

Chart 3 of Final Test Results of Main Endogenous Variables in 1996-2000

Final Test : CPR Final Test : IR

76000 40000
74000
35000
72000
70000 30000
68000
25000
66000
64000 20000
62000
15000
60000
19 19 19 19 20
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
96 9 7Q 9 8Q 9 9Q 0 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
Q1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

33
 Final Test : GDPR Final Test : GDP
120000 400000
115000 350000
110000
300000
105000
100000 250000
95000 200000
90000
150000
85000
80000 100000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : GNP Final Test : NI

350000 400000

300000 350000

300000
250000
250000
200000
200000
150000
150000
100000 100000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : TRDB Final Test : XGB

8000 19000
7000 18000
6000 17000
5000 16000
4000 15000
14000
3000
13000
2000
12000
1000 11000
0 10000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

34
 Final Test : MGB Final Test : CURB
13000 4000
12000 3000
11000 2000
10000 1000
0
9000
-1000
8000
-2000
7000 -3000
6000 -4000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : CURBGDP Final Test : CPFDIB

10 3000
2500
8
2000
6 1500
4 1000
2 500
0
0 -500
-2 -1000
-4 -1500
-2000
-6
19 19 19 19 20 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
9 6Q 97 98 99 00 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : CPOTHB Final Test : GTR

4000 70000
2000
60000
0
-2000 50000

-4000 40000
-6000
30000
-8000
-10000 20000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

35
 Final Test : GRNOG Final Test : GTE
50000 80000
45000 70000
40000
60000
35000
30000 50000
25000
40000
20000
15000 30000
10000 20000
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : INDTAX Final Test : GBAL

19000 10000

17000 5000
15000
0
13000
11000 -5000
9000
-10000
7000
5000 -15000
19 19 19 19 20 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
96 9 7Q 9 8Q 99 00
Q1 1 1 Q 1 Q 1 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : GBALGDP Final Test : PGDP

350
4
3
300
2
1
250
0
-1 200
-2
-3 150
-4
-5 100
19 19 19 19 20 19 19 19 19 20
96 9 7Q 98 99 0 0Q 96 97 98 9 9Q 00
Q1 1 Q 1 Q1 1 Q1 Q Q Q
1 1 1 1

36
 Final Test : WPI Final Test : CPI
400 230
350 210
190
300 170
250 150
130
200 110
150 90
70
100 50
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 19
96
19
9
19
98
19
99
20
00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q Q1 7Q Q Q1 Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : M2 Final Test : RITD

1000000 55
900000 50
45
800000
40
700000
35
600000
30
500000 25
400000 20
300000 15
200000 10
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Final Test : RLND

40

35

30

25

20

15
19 19 19 19 20
9 6Q 97 98 99 00
1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1

NOTE and Source are same as Chart 3.

37
4. Multiplier Analysis of TSQ Model

This chapter reports some policy simulation results. Here, a constant adjustment is
employed. Three simulations are completed; the first is the real government expenditure
increase by one percent of the real gross domestic product (GDPR) case (CASE 1); the
second is the official discount rate, which is SBI rate, cut by one percent case (CASE 2);
and the last is the Rupiah depreciated by 10 percent case (CASE 3). Multiplier tables of
these three cases are reported at Table 4 and Chart 4 shows those of main variables.

4.1 CASE 1: Government Expenditure Increase

This simulation is completed with the real government expenditure increase by one
percent of the real GDP of the standard case in a sustainable manner. This is usually
called government expenditure multiplier, which is expected more than one. According
to the well-known Mundell-Fleming framework8 for a small open economy, this policy
results in interest rate hikes and appreciation of exchange rate will negate all of
expansive effects caused by government expenditure increase. But TSQ model
exogenizes the exchange rate and in reality, this policy results in following
consequences:

(1) Real consumption and investment are stimulated. And according to this, real GDP
will expand with possible cyclical movements. Its final percentage deviation reaches at
more than four percent.
(2) Trade balance and current account on a balance of payment basis worsens because
imports increase according to GDP while exports decrease according to domestic prices.
But exports increase and imports decrease on a national account basis because nominal
value deviations on a balance of payment basis is smaller than those absolute of
deflators.
(3) State government balance worsens because the expenditure increase exceeds the
revenue increase.
(4) Prices and interest rates hike according to the demand expansion.

It must be stressed that TSQ model does not show any crowding-out. The deviation
percentage of real GDP over the standard case expands continuously with possible
cyclical movements for five years. The multiplier seems very large. This is mainly
because the consumption function does not include any interest rate factor. The LM curb
of TSQ model is very flat in a sense of Friedman (1973). As mentioned in Chapter 2,
this point must be improved in the future.

4.2 CASE 2: SBI Rate Cut by One Percent

Interest rate cut also stimulates real output because equation (EQ1-1) reveals that its
partial differential coefficient over domestic demand is positive. As equal to government
expenditure increase case, trade balance and current account worsen according to GDP
expansion. A very typical feature of TSQ model is that prices deviations show negative
for the first two years. The deviation of the quasi money supply marks negative because
at the first two years, depressive effects from its own interest rate is larger than
8
Mundell (1968) and Fleming (1962) introduced this framework.

38
expansive effects from GDP increase. But it gets positive after nine quarters of
simulation. The state government balance improves according to GDP expansion.

4.3 CASE 3: Exchange Rate Depreciation by Ten Percent

The depreciation of local currency also contains expansive effects to a sizable degree. It
stimulates exports while prices hike. But one of the most significant features of TSQ
model is that rupiah depreciation brings negative effects on real consumption and
investment after the third and fourth year, respectively. This is because these two
functions include government net external debt and FDI factors in depreciated rupiah,
which implies sizably negative effects on them. But overall real GDP expands for five
years because positive effects from the external sector is larger than that negative from
the domestic sector. Here, the state government balance also improves.

39
Table4: Multiplier Tables
CASE 1 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1998Q4 1999Q1 1999Q2 1999Q3 1999Q4 2000Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4
CPR 0.42 0.89 1.28 1.58 1.83 2.04 2.21 2.29 2.73 3.12 3.54 3.48 3.59 3.81 3.91 4.04 4.04 4.19 4.24 4.19
IR 0.01 0.85 1.05 1.39 1.59 1.75 1.86 2.18 3.06 3.55 3.74 4.41 5.03 5.37 5.60 5.31 5.28 5.17 5.13 5.21
XR -0.31 -0.47 -0.61 -0.70 -0.58 -0.73 -0.86 -1.08 -1.23 -0.97 -1.37 -1.42 -1.80 -1.63 -1.39 -1.40 -1.50 -1.70 -1.70 -1.76
MR 0.56 0.63 0.85 1.13 1.13 1.46 1.41 0.71 -0.03 0.47 0.35 1.63 2.04 2.02 2.39 2.73 2.62 2.21 1.57 1.11
GDPR 1.04 1.48 1.71 1.89 2.19 2.21 2.30 2.53 3.16 3.66 3.61 3.79 3.70 3.92 3.98 4.08 4.05 4.19 4.31 4.44
GDP 1.30 1.93 2.36 2.70 2.95 3.25 3.30 3.37 3.85 4.46 4.70 5.08 5.20 5.75 5.70 5.97 5.82 5.95 5.89 6.11
GNP 1.34 1.98 2.43 2.77 3.03 3.35 3.39 3.49 4.24 5.02 5.21 5.46 5.56 6.19 6.16 6.43 6.24 6.41 6.33 6.55
NI 1.38 2.02 2.44 2.80 3.09 3.34 3.42 3.53 3.89 5.11 4.95 5.37 5.20 6.26 5.93 6.47 5.47 6.40 6.06 5.52
GDPDOL 1.30 1.93 2.36 2.70 2.95 3.25 3.30 3.37 3.85 4.46 4.70 5.08 5.20 5.75 5.70 5.97 5.82 5.95 5.89 6.11
GDPPC 1.30 1.93 2.36 2.70 2.95 3.25 3.30 3.37 3.85 4.46 4.70 5.08 5.20 5.75 5.70 5.97 5.82 5.95 5.89 6.11
TRDB -146.42 -226.49 -292.70 -351.12 -375.21 -424.13 -403.11 -326.85 -202.12 -211.20 -240.74 -371.45 -380.74 -455.08 -463.91 -511.31 -523.18 -503.33 -503.33 -495.52
XGB -0.05 -0.07 -0.09 -0.10 -0.12 -0.12 -0.14 -0.16 -0.17 -0.14 -0.20 -0.26 -0.32 -0.29 -0.22 -0.23 -0.22 -0.22 -0.21 -0.22
XNOGB -0.07 -0.09 -0.12 -0.13 -0.16 -0.15 -0.17 -0.20 -0.20 -0.16 -0.23 -0.31 -0.39 -0.35 -0.27 -0.30 -0.29 -0.28 -0.27 -0.29
MGB 1.41 1.87 2.45 3.01 3.13 3.61 3.14 2.71 2.25 2.34 2.55 4.67 5.11 5.28 5.46 6.03 5.54 4.69 4.00 4.65
CURB -157.18 -243.13 -314.20 -376.98 -402.75 -455.15 -432.06 -349.36 -214.77 -225.04 -255.61 -396.54 -405.56 -485.65 -495.97 -547.08 -559.59 -537.90 -537.58 -529.14
CURBGDP -0.24 -0.34 -0.44 -0.55 -0.55 -0.66 -0.66 -0.76 -1.11 -1.19 -1.49 -1.27 -1.44 -1.43 -1.55 -1.54 -1.55 -1.53 -1.65 -1.77
GTR 0.77 1.28 1.71 2.04 2.14 2.55 2.57 2.40 2.42 2.34 2.89 3.03 3.28 3.59 3.47 3.64 3.28 4.65 4.79 4.86
GRR 0.87 1.46 1.95 2.32 2.43 2.74 2.76 2.74 2.91 3.17 4.04 4.10 4.32 4.52 4.27 4.38 3.87 4.69 4.79 4.83
GRNOG 1.12 1.86 2.50 3.02 3.21 3.74 3.82 3.77 3.99 4.26 5.42 5.54 5.88 6.23 5.91 6.09 5.41 7.58 7.51 7.36
INCTAX 2.07 3.11 3.92 4.56 4.63 5.27 5.35 5.38 5.93 6.06 7.88 8.91 9.94 10.91 10.52 11.08 9.61 10.05 9.94 9.68
VAETAX 0.85 1.83 2.75 3.49 3.93 4.28 4.28 4.41 4.51 5.69 7.39 6.65 6.77 7.28 7.16 7.49 7.30 7.85 8.02 8.18
IMPTAX 1.30 2.22 3.01 3.48 3.64 3.64 3.79 4.62 6.93 10.82 15.31 13.53 13.20 11.68 10.30 9.90 9.50 5.91 5.61 5.39
GTE 11.26 11.75 11.54 11.13 10.16 11.82 10.87 9.38 9.09 8.32 8.32 8.15 8.94 11.04 9.32 8.71 9.80 10.18 9.52 9.31
GRE 17.62 18.97 18.64 17.40 15.46 17.02 15.38 13.36 13.03 12.09 12.14 11.91 13.09 16.19 13.69 12.81 14.43 11.60 10.77 10.46
GBAL -2230.96 -2343.85 -2313.95 -2301.38 -2173.65 -2515.32 -2395.32 -2357.04 -2578.00 -2896.50 -2928.11 -2859.95 -3262.41 -4362.18 -3531.29 -3155.07 -4173.51 -4347.00 -4010.69 -4015.65
GBALGDP -1.80 -1.79 -1.66 -1.56 -1.48 -1.63 -1.46 -1.29 -1.19 -1.29 -1.06 -1.05 -1.10 -1.47 -1.20 -1.06 -1.31 -1.15 -0.97 -0.93
PCP 0.17 0.40 0.64 0.83 0.95 1.08 1.12 1.23 1.39 1.35 1.50 1.60 1.68 1.92 1.98 2.02 1.95 2.06 2.19 2.23
PI 0.42 0.64 0.81 0.86 1.03 0.87 0.99 1.25 1.57 1.30 1.57 1.59 2.00 1.91 1.62 1.72 1.81 1.75 1.87 1.89
PGDP 0.26 0.45 0.64 0.79 0.74 1.02 0.97 0.82 0.66 0.77 1.05 1.24 1.45 1.76 1.65 1.82 1.70 1.69 1.52 1.60
WPI 0.39 0.59 0.77 0.88 0.96 0.87 0.96 1.08 1.30 1.05 1.41 1.40 1.84 1.82 1.59 1.59 1.64 1.71 1.78 1.77
WPID 0.50 0.77 0.99 1.15 1.37 1.21 1.31 1.48 1.88 1.51 1.98 1.91 2.44 2.44 2.15 2.18 2.28 2.39 2.53 2.51
WPIX 0.27 0.41 0.53 0.56 0.53 0.63 0.74 0.84 0.96 0.79 1.14 1.14 1.58 1.48 1.24 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.26 1.27
WPIM 0.27 0.43 0.55 0.64 0.73 0.63 0.70 0.81 1.00 0.80 1.03 1.01 1.32 1.36 1.19 1.20 1.25 1.32 1.38 1.37
CPI 0.19 0.42 0.68 0.90 1.02 1.18 1.20 1.30 1.47 1.44 1.58 1.75 1.82 2.10 2.16 2.15 2.12 2.20 2.31 2.36
QM 2.23 3.36 4.37 4.84 5.07 5.65 5.72 6.10 6.62 5.39 8.29 9.83 9.84 10.28 9.02 9.63 10.27 10.52 11.28 11.10
M2 1.77 2.68 3.47 3.94 4.06 4.51 4.69 4.89 5.29 4.46 6.94 8.32 8.31 8.69 7.56 7.90 8.37 8.50 9.01 8.75
RITD 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.41 0.48 0.50 0.54 0.55 0.61 0.60 0.63 0.62 0.63 0.62 0.65
RLND 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30
NOTE: Units are percentage of deviations other than balance variables and interest rates, such as TRDB, CURB, CURBGDP, GBAL, GBALGDP, RITD, and RLND, which are presented
by deviation level. Units of TRDB and CURB are Million U.S. dollars and that of GBAL is billion Rupiah. Other balance variables, such as CURBGDP, GBAL GDP are
originally in percent to GDP and units of interest rates, such as RITD and RLND, are percent per annum.
Source: Author’s estimation

40
 CASE 2 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1998Q4 1999Q1 1999Q2 1999Q3 1999Q4 2000Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4
CPR 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.24 0.26 0.32 0.37 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.49 0.52 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59
IR 0.17 0.32 0.37 0.47 0.54 0.56 0.59 0.67 0.95 1.15 1.16 1.37 1.48 1.55 1.56 1.44 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.33
XR 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.09
MR 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.29 0.37 0.36 0.40 0.45 0.44 0.39 0.32 0.26
GDPR 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.24 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.40 0.49 0.50 0.54 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.62 0.63
GDP -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.36 0.46 0.50 0.57 0.59 0.63 0.65 0.71 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.71
GNP -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.15 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.39 0.51 0.55 0.61 0.63 0.68 0.71 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.76
NI -0.02 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.36 0.53 0.53 0.60 0.59 0.69 0.68 0.77 0.65 0.74 0.70 0.64
GDPDOL -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.36 0.46 0.50 0.57 0.59 0.63 0.65 0.71 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.71
GDPPC -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.36 0.46 0.50 0.57 0.59 0.63 0.65 0.71 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.71
TRDB 4.57 0.07 -3.98 -12.06 -16.60 -22.93 -24.90 -20.48 -15.70 -19.49 -22.73 -38.77 -40.14 -47.14 -50.80 -58.29 -59.30 -55.47 -55.38 -54.92
XGB 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01
XNOGB 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02
MGB -0.03 0.01 0.05 0.12 0.15 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.51 0.57 0.57 0.62 0.71 0.65 0.54 0.46 0.54
CURB 4.66 -0.19 -4.55 -13.23 -18.10 -24.90 -27.03 -22.25 -16.97 -20.99 -24.43 -41.68 -43.11 -50.63 -54.60 -62.65 -63.74 -59.59 -59.48 -58.97
CURBGDP 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.09 -0.12 -0.15 -0.14 -0.16 -0.16 -0.18 -0.19 -0.19 -0.18 -0.19 -0.21
GTR -0.02 -0.01 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.20 0.22 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.38 0.38 0.41 0.38 0.52 0.53 0.55
GRR -0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.07 0.10 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.24 0.30 0.40 0.43 0.47 0.48 0.47 0.50 0.44 0.52 0.53 0.54
GRNOG -0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.09 0.14 0.20 0.24 0.25 0.33 0.40 0.54 0.58 0.64 0.66 0.65 0.69 0.62 0.85 0.84 0.83
INCTAX -0.04 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.23 0.31 0.36 0.38 0.54 0.61 0.83 0.98 1.11 1.18 1.19 1.29 1.12 1.14 1.13 1.11
VAETAX -0.06 -0.07 -0.04 0.03 0.11 0.17 0.23 0.25 0.31 0.45 0.64 0.62 0.67 0.72 0.73 0.79 0.80 0.85 0.86 0.88
IMPTAX -0.03 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.32 0.61 1.08 1.57 1.49 1.48 1.27 1.17 1.16 1.11 0.68 0.64 0.62
GTE -0.14 -0.11 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08
GRE -0.22 -0.17 -0.17 -0.14 -0.10 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.08 0.08 0.09
GBAL 24.04 22.42 28.27 37.34 42.24 48.54 56.72 64.23 79.28 98.58 137.74 151.82 166.91 179.35 196.33 214.57 193.24 275.19 292.94 301.89
GBALGDP 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.11
PCP -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.09 -0.08 -0.06 -0.06 -0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.12
PI -0.13 -0.12 -0.11 -0.08 -0.08 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 -0.01 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.11
PGDP -0.07 -0.09 -0.10 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08 -0.07 -0.07 -0.05 -0.03 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.08
WPI -0.12 -0.11 -0.10 -0.08 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10
WPID -0.15 -0.14 -0.13 -0.11 -0.10 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.01 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14
WPIX -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
WPIM -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08
CPI -0.06 -0.09 -0.12 -0.12 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.13
QM -0.66 -0.60 -0.58 -0.46 -0.37 -0.30 -0.24 -0.22 -0.02 0.11 0.23 0.37 0.41 0.46 0.44 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.61
M2 -0.53 -0.48 -0.46 -0.37 -0.30 -0.24 -0.20 -0.18 -0.02 0.09 0.19 0.32 0.35 0.39 0.37 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.47 0.48
RITD -0.91 -0.91 -0.90 -0.90 -0.89 -0.89 -0.88 -0.88 -0.87 -0.86 -0.85 -0.85 -0.84 -0.84 -0.84 -0.83 -0.83 -0.83 -0.83 -0.83
RLND -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.30 -0.30 -0.29 -0.29 -0.29 -0.29 -0.29 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28

NOTE and Source: Same as above.

41
 CASE 3 1996Q1 1996Q2 1996Q3 1996Q4 1997Q1 1997Q2 1997Q3 1997Q4 1998Q1 1998Q2 1998Q3 1998Q4 1999Q1 1999Q2 1999Q3 1999Q4 2000Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4
CPR 0.20 0.30 0.39 0.46 0.51 0.38 0.30 0.20 -0.20 -0.21 -0.39 -0.40 -0.65 -0.77 -0.95 -0.92 -1.19 -1.29 -1.41 -1.74
IR 0.12 1.17 1.31 1.46 1.50 1.49 1.53 1.30 1.29 1.53 1.71 1.65 0.37 -0.33 -0.52 -0.54 -0.84 -0.86 -0.78 -0.94
XR 5.63 5.55 5.04 4.95 6.63 6.61 5.80 4.92 5.28 6.97 5.79 5.73 5.84 6.66 6.97 6.59 6.74 7.35 7.73 7.69
MR -0.35 0.16 0.18 0.27 0.45 1.51 2.01 1.22 1.45 3.47 3.37 2.04 1.51 1.78 2.13 2.26 2.34 3.29 3.59 1.64
GDPR 1.75 2.03 1.99 2.02 2.24 2.04 1.75 1.64 1.68 1.55 1.29 0.91 0.69 0.57 0.55 0.43 0.26 0.18 0.09 0.17
GDP 3.91 4.91 5.95 6.52 6.62 6.57 6.41 6.74 7.91 8.01 7.91 6.97 6.42 6.04 6.06 6.02 5.55 5.43 5.49 5.63
GNP 3.79 4.82 5.89 6.48 6.58 6.52 6.35 6.72 7.85 8.09 8.00 6.98 6.35 5.96 5.86 6.00 5.47 5.34 5.53 5.50
NI 3.90 4.88 5.91 6.55 6.72 6.49 6.43 6.83 7.17 8.18 7.59 6.89 5.98 6.03 5.66 6.07 4.83 5.39 5.37 4.70
GDPDOL -5.53 -4.63 -3.67 -3.18 -3.06 -3.11 -3.26 -2.97 -1.90 -1.81 -1.90 -2.75 -3.26 -3.60 -3.58 -3.63 -4.05 -4.16 -4.10 -3.97
GDPPC -5.53 -4.63 -3.67 -3.18 -3.06 -3.11 -3.26 -2.97 -1.90 -1.81 -1.90 -2.75 -3.26 -3.60 -3.58 -3.63 -4.05 -4.16 -4.10 -3.97
TRDB 723.16 643.98 556.75 533.71 537.89 548.96 524.71 396.53 171.55 189.44 188.01 319.05 307.89 383.00 404.90 438.55 502.04 487.26 491.90 462.41
XGB 1.29 1.14 1.08 1.13 1.46 1.23 1.17 1.08 0.96 1.09 1.00 1.43 1.09 1.16 1.09 1.22 1.21 1.16 1.08 1.13
XNOGB 1.75 1.46 1.39 1.54 2.00 1.51 1.43 1.35 1.14 1.26 1.16 1.72 1.32 1.39 1.37 1.62 1.62 1.47 1.39 1.49
MGB -5.83 -4.32 -3.65 -3.38 -3.03 -3.27 -2.92 -2.16 -0.60 -0.55 -0.64 -2.23 -2.81 -3.01 -3.15 -3.40 -3.60 -3.05 -2.57 -2.77
CURB 757.92 672.66 579.08 551.47 550.62 563.89 539.66 403.62 165.55 181.55 181.49 319.69 313.70 390.63 412.44 446.69 512.84 496.97 500.42 469.14
CURBGDP 1.29 1.05 0.89 0.87 0.83 0.89 0.90 0.93 0.86 0.96 1.01 1.07 1.17 1.24 1.35 1.33 1.50 1.51 1.61 1.63
GTR 4.06 4.91 5.83 6.73 6.41 6.36 6.17 6.54 7.44 6.01 6.81 5.23 5.21 4.98 5.25 5.47 5.23 6.08 6.97 7.02
GRR 4.57 5.57 6.64 7.64 7.26 6.84 6.63 7.48 8.92 8.13 9.50 7.08 6.86 6.26 6.46 6.59 6.18 6.14 6.97 6.97
GRNOG 3.22 4.66 6.07 6.95 6.82 7.14 6.90 7.02 7.30 6.87 8.05 6.68 6.23 5.66 5.23 5.25 4.30 5.72 5.92 5.45
INCTAX 5.92 7.61 9.60 10.76 10.15 10.31 10.10 10.46 11.08 9.84 12.18 11.44 11.39 10.49 10.00 10.32 8.40 8.35 8.67 8.10
VAETAX 2.56 4.69 6.57 7.77 7.89 7.86 7.03 7.07 6.25 7.04 7.81 6.38 5.38 5.25 4.82 4.97 4.18 4.32 4.29 3.97
IMPTAX 3.29 6.23 7.33 7.28 7.76 6.43 8.16 13.04 28.69 43.45 55.76 21.88 17.86 14.80 12.33 10.28 10.36 8.39 10.08 8.05
GTE 4.28 3.96 4.44 4.79 4.45 4.02 3.99 3.95 4.66 3.37 3.59 3.20 3.96 3.79 2.94 3.00 3.13 3.07 2.94 3.15
GRE 6.71 6.39 7.17 7.49 6.77 5.79 5.64 5.62 6.68 4.90 5.24 4.67 5.80 5.56 4.32 4.42 4.61 3.50 3.32 3.54
GBAL -23.40 233.95 348.36 503.28 533.87 617.59 602.39 849.97 1046.38 1265.84 1721.61 1128.16 712.49 692.19 1394.12 1538.83 1349.33 1640.51 2314.88 2209.43
GBALGDP -0.04 0.16 0.23 0.32 0.35 0.40 0.37 0.47 0.48 0.55 0.61 0.41 0.24 0.23 0.47 0.52 0.42 0.63 0.81 0.80
PCP 1.61 3.01 4.18 4.89 5.07 5.36 5.19 5.47 5.96 5.79 5.79 5.35 4.92 5.01 5.02 5.04 4.72 4.85 4.98 5.00
PI 3.93 4.29 4.69 4.53 5.16 3.95 4.32 5.39 6.59 5.64 5.23 4.38 5.25 4.54 4.19 4.22 4.22 3.97 4.14 4.23
PGDP 2.12 2.82 3.88 4.42 4.28 4.44 4.58 5.01 6.12 6.36 6.54 6.01 5.69 5.44 5.48 5.57 5.28 5.24 5.40 5.46
WPI 3.61 4.00 4.43 4.63 4.81 3.96 4.18 4.68 5.45 4.53 4.70 3.87 4.81 4.34 4.09 3.91 3.82 3.88 3.93 3.96
WPID 4.69 5.17 5.75 6.12 6.92 5.48 5.71 6.42 7.94 6.59 6.64 5.28 6.42 5.82 5.57 5.37 5.33 5.44 5.62 5.63
WPIX 2.54 2.76 3.03 2.93 2.64 2.85 3.18 3.62 4.01 3.39 3.78 3.14 4.13 3.50 3.19 2.94 2.78 2.82 2.78 2.84
WPIM 2.51 2.85 3.15 3.36 3.65 2.82 3.01 3.47 4.15 3.43 3.43 2.77 3.45 3.22 3.05 2.93 2.91 2.98 3.04 3.07
CPI 1.71 3.21 4.46 5.29 5.48 5.82 5.59 5.78 6.33 6.19 6.13 5.87 5.33 5.47 5.49 5.37 5.15 5.19 5.26 5.32
QM 6.78 8.62 11.16 11.87 11.51 11.55 11.22 12.34 13.79 9.80 14.12 13.56 12.19 10.81 9.61 9.71 9.79 9.58 10.50 10.22
M2 5.36 6.86 8.86 9.66 9.21 9.21 9.20 9.90 11.02 8.11 11.81 11.48 10.30 9.14 8.05 7.97 7.98 7.75 8.38 8.06
RITD 0.42 0.52 0.63 0.69 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.71 0.83 0.84 0.83 0.73 0.68 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.60
RLND 0.19 0.24 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28

NOTE and Source: Same as above.

42
Chart 4 Multipliers of Main Variables

Multiplier : GDPR Multiplier : CPR

5 5
4
4
3
3
2
2 1
0
1
-1
0
-2
-1 -3
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Multiplier : IR Multiplier : TRDB

6 800
5 600
4 400
3
200
2
0
1
-200
0
-1 -400
-2 -600
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Multiplier : CURB Multiplier : CURBGDP

1000 2
800 1.5
600 1
400
0.5
200
0
0
-200 -0.5
-400 -1
-600 -1.5
-800 -2
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

43
 Multiplier : GBALGDP Multiplier : PGDP
1 7
6
0.5
5
0 4
-0.5 3
2
-1
1
-1.5 0
-2 -1
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Multiplier : CPI
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 2 00
6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 0Q
1 1 1 1 1

NOTE and Source are same as Table 4 and the continuous line is of the CASE 1, the dotted is of the
CASE 2, and the dash-dot is of the CASE3.

44
5. Out-Sample Simulation Results of TSQ Model

5.1 Assumptions for Out-Sample simulation

Since TSQ model treats international and policy variables as exogenous according to a
manner of a typical macroeconometric model. We thus assume some exogenous
variables for an out-sample simulation. Assuming external and internal economic
situations in the near future, economic forecasts of some international organizations and
Indonesian government agency is very useful.

5.1.1 Global Economic Circumstances

After the terrorist attacks to New York on September 11, the world economic outlook
gets more opaque. As well known that NBER (2001) declared that the U.S. economy
peaked off at March 2001, the world economic prospects are not always favorable for
Indonesian domestic economy. Since some international organizations released their
economic prospects after the terrorist attack in September, such as IMF (2001b), World
Bank (2001a), and OECD (2001), we have to take them into account when completing
an out-sample simulation. Table 5 summarizes them.

Table 5 World Economic Outlook by International Organizations

Units: percent
2001 2002 2003
IMF (2001b)
World Output 2.4 2.4 N.A.
U. S. 1.1 0.7 N.A.
Japan -0.9 -1.3 N.A.
World Bank (2001)
World Trade Volume 1.0 4.0 10.2
Manufactures Export Unit Value -4.6 4.0 4.4
Oil Prices (U.S. dollar/barrel) 25 21 20
World GDP Growth 1.3 1.6 3.9
U. S. 1.1 1.0 3.9
Japan -0.8 0.1 2.4
LIBOR 3.6 2.8 3.0
OECD (2001)
World Trade Volume 0.3 2.0 8.7
Real GDP Growth
U. S. 1.1 0.7 3.8
Japan -0.7 -1.0 0.8
Short-Term Interest Rate 4.2 3.0 3.8
Source: IMF (2001b), World Bank (2001a), and OECD (2001).

The National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) also released its prospects
on both world economic circumstances and domestic situations at BAPPENAS (2001).
Table 6 reports main items of them.

45
Table 6 World Economic Circumstances of BAPPENAS
2001 2002
World Economic Growth 2.6 3.5
World Trade Volume 4.0 5.7
Inflation Rate in Advanced Countries 2.4 1.7
Oil Export Price (U.S. dollar/barrel) 24 22
LIBOR 3.8 3.7
Source: BAPPENAS (2001)

The assumptions for international economic circumstances therefore are as following

Table 7:

Table 7 Assumptions for International Economic Circumstances

Units: percent
2002
World Economic Growth
U. S. 0.8
Japan -1.0
Oil Price (U. S. dollar/barrel)22 22
Export Unit Value 2.0
LIBOR 3.7
Source: Author’s estimation.

5.1.2 Indonesian Domestic Assumptions

According to BAPPENAS (2001), I assume Indonesian domestic economy as following

Table 8:

Table 8 Indonesian Domestic Assumptions

2002
Exchange Rate (rupiah/U. S. dollar) 9000
SBI Interest Rate (percent) 14.0
NOTE: SBI interest rate is value at the fourth quarter of 2001.
Source: Author’s estimation.

Since some state government variables and narrow defined money supply (M1) are also
exogenized in TSQ model, following assumptions are taken:
(1) The state government revenues and expenditures are subject to its budget approved
by the Parliament in November 2001. Table 9 reports its detail.
(2) M1 is going to growth constantly by 20 percent over the same period of previous
year.

Other exogenous variables are assumed according to their own past trends or levels.

All Available information until November 30, 2001 is employed but that after December
is not included.

46
Table 9 State Budget 2001 and 2002
Unit: billions of rupiah and percent to GDP
2001 2002
Items % to % to
Adjustment Budget
GDP GDP
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
A. Total Revenue and Grants 286,006.1 19.5 301,874.3 17.9
I. Domestic Revenues 286,006.1 19.5 301,874.3 17.9
1. Tax Revenues 185,260.2 12.6 219,627.5 13.0
a. Domestic Taxes 174,254.8 11.9 207,028.9 12.3
i. Income tax 94,970.5 6.5 104,497.2 6.2
1. Oil and gas 25,725.0 1.7 15,551.9 0.9
2. Non-Oil and gas 69,245.5 4.7 88,815.3 5.3
ii. Value added tax 53,456.5 3.6 70,099.8 4.2
iii. Land and building tax 5,094.4 0.3 5,924.2 0.4
iv. Duties on land and building transfer 1,195.0 0.1 2,205.0 0.1
v. Excises 17,600.6 1.2 22,352.9 1.3
vi. Other taxes 1,937.8 0.1 1,949.7 0.1
b,. International trade tax 11,005.4 0.7 12,598.8 0.7
i. Import duties 10,398.1 0.7 12,249.0 0.7
ii. Export tax 607.3 0.0 349.8 0.0
2. Non-tax Revenues 100,745.9 6.9 82,246.8 4.3
a. Natural Resources 79,446.2 5.4 63,195.4 3.7
i. Oil 57,857.1 3.9 44,013.3 2.8
ii. Gas 17,368.7 1.2 14,524.3 0.9
iii. General Mining 928.1 0.1 1,340.0 0.1
iv. Forestry 3,000.6 0.2 3,028.0 0.2
v. Fishery 291.7 0.0 291.8 0.0
b. Profit transfer from SOE’s 9,000.0 0.6 10,351.4 0.6
c. Other non-tax revenues 12,299.7 0.8 8,700.0 0.5
II. Grants - - - -
B. Expenditures 340,325.7 23.2 344,008.8 20.4
I. Central Government Expenditures 258,849.2 17.7 246,040.0 14.6
1. Current Expenditures 213,387.8 14.5 193,740.9 11.5
a. Personnel expenditure 38,206.4 2.6 40,748.2 2.4
b. Material (Goods and Services) 9,909.1 0.7 12,863.2 0.8
c. Interest Payments 89,569.7 6.1 88,499.9 5.3
i. Domestic 61,174.3 4.2 59,524.6 3.5
ii. External 28,395.4 1.9 28,975.3 1.7
d. Subsidies 66,269.3 4.5 41,586.3 2.5
i. Petroleum 53,774.0 3.7 30,377.0 1.8
ii. Non-Petroleum 12,495.3 0.9 11,209.3 0.7
e. Other current expenditures 9,433.3 0.6 10,043.4 0.6
2. Development Expenditures 45,461.4 3.1 52,299.1 3.1
a. Rupiah Financing 21,712.1 1.5 26,469.1 1.6
b. Project Financing with Foreign Loans 23,749.3 1.6 25,830.0 1.5
II. Balanced Funds 81,476.6 5.5 97,968.8 5.8
1. Revenue Sharing 20,259.3 1.4 24,600.4 1.5
2. General Allocation Fund 60,516.7 4.1 69,114.1 4.1
3. Special Allocation Fund 700.6 0.0 817.3 0.0
C. Primary Balance (A – (B – B.I.1.c)) 35,250.0 2.4 46,365.4 2.6
D. Overall Balance (A – B) (54,319.7) (3.7) (42,124.5) (2.5)
E. Financing (E.I + EII) 54,319.7 3.7 42,134.5 2.5
I. Domestic 34,386.7 2.3 23,500.8 1.4
1. Domestic Bank Financing - - - -
2. Domestic Non-Bank Financing 34,386.7 2.3 23,500.8 1.4
a. Privatization Proceeds 6,500.0 0.4 3,952.2 0.2
b. Asset Recovery 27,000.0 1.8 19,548.8 1.2
c. Government Bond (net) 886.7 0.1 - -
i. Bond Issuance 886.7 0.1 3,930.5 0.2
ii. Amortization of Domestic Debt - - (3,930.5) (0.2)
II. Foreign Financing (net) 19,933.0 1.4 18,633.7 1.1
1. Project Loan 23,749.3 1.6 25,830.0 1.5
2. Amortizations of Foreign Debt (20,157.7) (1.4) (43,966.8) (2.6)
3. Program Loan and Rescheduling of Foreign Debt 16,341.4 1.1 36,770.5 2.2
Source: Ministry of Finance

47
5.2 Short-Term Projection of Indonesian Economy in 2002

Table 10 compares TSQ model simulation results and some available forecasts by
international organizations.

Table 10 Indonesian Economic Forecasts in 2002

Unit: percent
TSQ Model ADB World Bank IMF
Growth Rate 3.7 3.9 3.5-4.0 4.3
Current Account to GDP 0.9 0.6 0.7-0.9 2.0
Inflation Rate 9.4 9.0 7.5-8.5 7.0
NOTE: The projection of the IMF is released without considering the terrorist attack.
Source: ADB (2001), World Bank (2001b), IMF (2001a), and author’s estimation.

More about TSQ model simulation results, according to above-mentioned assumptions,

TSQ model results following economic prospects. Table 10 reports the projection of
main variables while Chart 4 shows the development of them. According to TSQ model
simulation results, Indonesian economy indicates a slight slowdown at the last quarter
of 2001 and the first quarter of 2002 but from the mid-2002, it recovers to a sizable
extent and at the last quarter of 2002, the growth rate reaches at more than four percent.
The investment growth recovers to its mid-2001 level at the last quarter of 2002 while
the consumption growth shows stable trends.

Prices gets more stable due to the exchange rate appreciation while it must be pointed
out that there exists a considerable inflation risk owing to the exchange rate. The
home-made inflation rate, measured by the GDP deflator, is rather high compared with
wholesale prices that is directly affected by the exchange rate appreciation.

On the other hand, exports on a balance of payment basis delays to recover because of
non-favorable international circumstances. Trade balance and current account thus
worsens through 2002 due to exports slump with possible cyclical movements.

The most serious problem comes out at the state budget deficit. During 2001, its ratio to
nominal GDP reaches to approximate four percent and at the last quarter of 2002,
recovers to about two percent. It will be required to get back to the balance budget as
soon as possible.

Table 11 reports short-term projection of main variables, derived from TSQ mode
simulation results while Chart 5 shows their time-series trends.

48
Table 11 Short-Term Projection of Main Variables
2000Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4 2000 2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 2001 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2002
GDPR 98584.9 98466.6 100669.2 99945.6 397666.3 101643.5 101737.7 104162.6 103159.7 410703.5 104821.8 105389.3 108257.9 107412.5 425881.5
4.9% 4.9% 5.8% 5.1% 5.2% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% 3.9% 4.1% 3.7%
CPR 69251.1 70059.8 70891.7 71754.8 281957.4 73313.6 73427.7 75942.7 75142.8 297826.8 76605.1 77188.4 80022.0 79258.3 313073.8
4.2% 5.0% 5.7% 6.4% 5.3% 5.9% 4.8% 7.1% 4.7% 5.6% 4.5% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1%
IR 21089.9 21935.9 22684.2 23274.5 88984.5 23816.4 23493.4 21708.3 22791.4 91809.5 22607.8 23866.8 22877.9 24436.9 93789.4
13.6% 21.5% 24.3% 16.0% 18.7% 12.9% 7.1% -4.3% -2.1% 3.2% -5.1% 1.6% 5.4% 7.2% 2.2%
XR 25521.7 26798.5 27420.5 27176.8 106917.5 30218.7 31466.5 29221.8 27210.5 118117.5 29986.5 32532.8 30708.5 28607.7 121835.5
15.1% 21.2% 14.1% 14.2% 16.1% 18.4% 17.4% 6.6% 0.1% 10.5% -0.8% 3.4% 5.1% 5.1% 3.1%
MR 19842.8 21335.8 23843.6 27800.4 92822.6 29090.2 27530.4 23437.0 22785.0 102842.6 25227.6 29098.7 26300.5 25890.4 106517.2
5.0% 3.9% 20.1% 44.2% 18.2% 46.6% 29.0% -1.7% -18.0% 10.8% -13.3% 5.7% 12.2% 13.6% 3.6%
GDP 302421.0 316584.0 333739.0 337940.2 1290684.2 348381.3 364969.9 388082.6 390219.3 1491653.1 391541.6 410719.0 442220.9 448318.8 1692800.4
7.6% 13.2% 20.2% 20.2% 15.3% 15.2% 15.3% 16.3% 15.5% 15.6% 12.4% 12.5% 14.0% 14.9% 13.5%
GNP 281737.1 293894.9 310866.5 314929.3 1201427.8 330794.5 346272.3 374426.2 376429.9 1427922.9 377860.4 397093.1 428602.0 434710.4 1638266.0
7.0% 13.2% 21.0% 20.7% 15.5% 17.4% 17.8% 20.4% 19.5% 18.9% 14.2% 14.7% 14.5% 15.5% 14.7%
GDPPC 788.9 733.8 733.1 693.0 737.2 676.8 614.7 768.7 719.3 694.9 780.4 852.1 935.0 944.6 878.1
25.9% 6.6% 2.4% -8.4% 5.8% -14.2% -16.2% 4.9% 3.8% -5.7% 15.3% 38.6% 21.6% 31.3% 26.4%
TRDB 6264 5745 6167 6865 25041 5682 4816 5409 6204 22111 5183 4621 5355 6172 21331
2225 1288 -176 1062 4399 -582 -929 -758 -661 -2930 -499 -195 -54 -32 -780
XGB 15113 15738 17829 16728 65408 14907 14441 16131 15454 60933 14112 14096 16144 15679 60031
39.8% 26.9% 24.9% 21.6% 27.6% -1.4% -8.2% -9.5% -7.6% -6.8% -5.3% -2.4% 0.1% 1.5% -1.5%
MGB 8849 9993 11662 9863 40367 9225 9625 10722 9250 38822 8929 9475 10789 9507 38700
30.7% 25.8% 47.1% 24.0% 31.9% 4.2% -3.7% -8.1% -6.2% -3.8% -3.2% -1.6% 0.6% 2.8% -0.3%
CURB 1897 1354 2242 2498 7991 1577 -54 316 1283 3122 394 -210 256 1212 1653
385 504 356 964 2209 -320 -1408 -1926 -1215 -4869 -1183 -156 -60 -70 -1469
CURBGDP 4.64 3.54 5.85 6.87 5.21 4.43 -0.17 0.78 3.35 2.13 0.95 -0.46 0.51 2.38 0.88
-0.09 1.14 0.74 2.95 1.16 -0.21 -3.71 -5.08 -3.52 -3.08 -3.48 -0.29 -0.27 -0.97 -1.25
GTR 64119.3 63004.6 64715.3 66426.2 258265.4 69466.2 71192.5 72180.0 73167.5 286006.2 73990.6 74975.9 75961.2 76946.5 301874.2
11.5% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 8.2% 8.3% 13.0% 11.5% 10.1% 10.7% 6.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.5%
GTE 64032.3 71434.4 74635.7 77837.0 287939.4 82433.1 85732.3 85964.2 86196.1 340325.7 85657.3 85887.2 86117.1 86347.0 344008.6
11.2% 22.0% 23.6% 25.1% 20.6% 28.7% 20.0% 15.2% 10.7% 18.2% 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1%
GBAL 87.0 -8429.8 -9920.4 -11410.8 -29674.0 -12966.9 -14539.8 -13784.2 -13028.6 -54319.5 -11666.7 -10911.3 -10155.9 -9400.5 -42134.4
142.7 -8409.5 -9935.8 -11461.9 -29664.5 -13053.9 -6110.0 -3863.8 -1617.8 -24645.5 1300.2 3628.5 3628.3 3628.1 12185.1
GBALGDP 0.03 -2.66 -2.97 -3.38 -2.30 -3.72 -3.98 -3.55 -3.34 -3.64 -2.98 -2.66 -2.30 -2.10 -2.49
0.05 -2.66 -2.98 -3.39 -2.30 -3.75 -1.32 -0.58 0.04 -1.34 0.74 1.33 1.26 1.24 1.15
PGDP 306.76 321.51 331.52 338.12 324.48 342.75 358.74 372.57 378.27 363.08 373.53 389.72 408.49 413.49 396.31
2.6% 7.9% 13.6% 14.4% 9.6% 11.7% 11.6% 12.4% 11.9% 11.9% 9.0% 8.6% 9.6% 9.3% 9.2%
CPI 204.91 206.98 211.59 217.62 210.28 224.06 230.05 237.24 241.53 233.22 246.43 252.18 258.84 262.85 255.08
-0.6% 1.1% 5.7% 8.8% 3.7% 9.3% 11.1% 12.1% 11.0% 10.9% 10.0% 9.6% 9.1% 8.8% 9.4%
WPI 328.81 345.41 362.76 374.22 352.80 384.67 413.33 421.09 425.92 411.25 421.82 437.70 438.82 441.37 434.93
5.0% 10.2% 16.2% 18.6% 12.5% 17.0% 19.7% 16.1% 13.8% 16.6% 9.7% 5.9% 4.2% 3.6% 5.8%
M2 656199 684445 690035 741824 741824 766445 795819 870238 888817 888817 880600 952296 1064118 1103351 1103351
10.3% 12.6% 7.3% 15.9% 15.9% 16.8% 16.3% 26.1% 19.8% 19.8% 14.9% 19.7% 22.3% 24.1% 24.1%
RITD 12.63 11.89 12.33 13.17 12.51 14.35 14.95 14.39 12.54 14.06 12.25 12.03 12.38 11.34 12.00
-26.89 -19.00 -7.13 0.09 -13.23 1.72 3.06 2.06 -0.63 1.55 -2.10 -2.92 -2.01 -1.20 -2.06
RLND 19.58 18.46 17.98 17.80 18.46 17.85 18.26 18.03 17.08 17.80 17.13 16.93 17.03 16.38 16.87
-14.53 -11.88 -6.54 -3.88 -9.21 -1.73 -0.20 0.05 -0.72 -0.65 -0.72 -1.33 -1.00 -0.70 -0.94
NEXA 7390.93 8286.93 8711.87 9297.37 8421.78 9779.70 11241.70 9525.00 10200.00 10186.60 9400.00 9000.00 8800.00 8800.00 9000.00
-15.8% 4.6% 15.7% 29.3% 7.2% 32.3% 35.7% 9.3% 9.7% 21.0% -3.9% -19.9% -7.6% -13.7% -11.6%
NOTE: Figures after double-lines are of projections. The figures at the upper row of each cell report values of each variable while those at the lower row with percent
sign indicate the growth rate from the previous year and those without percent sign do the deviation from the previous year.
Annul averages of GDPPC and PGDP are of simple average.

49
Chart 5 Short-Term Projection of Main Variables

Short-Term Projection : GDPR Short-Term Projection : CPR

110000 85000

80000
105000

75000

100000
70000

95000 65000
20 20 20 20 20 20
00 01 0 2Q 00 0 1Q 02
Q1 Q 1 1 Q1 1 Q 1

Short-Term Projection : IR Short-Term Projection : XR

25000 35000

24000

23000
30000
22000

21000

25000
20000
20 20 20
2 00 2 00 2 00
00 0 1Q 02 0Q 1Q 2Q
Q1 1 Q 1 1 1 1

Short-Term Projection : MR Short-Term Projection : GDP

35000 450000

30000 400000

25000 350000

20000
300000

15000
250000
2 00 2 00 2 00 20 20 20
0Q 1Q 2Q 00 01 0 2Q
1 1 1 Q1 Q 1 1

50
 Short-Term Projection : GNP Short-Term Projection : GDPPC
450000 1000

400000 900

350000 800

300000 700

250000 600
20 20 20 20 20 20
00 01 0 2Q 00 01 02
Q1 Q 1 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1

Short-Term Projection : TRDB Short-Term Projection : XGB

7000 18000

17000
6000

16000

5000
15000

4000 14000
20 20 20 20 20 20
00 01 02 0 0Q 01 02
Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 1 Q 1 Q 1

Short-Term Projection : MGB Short-Term Projection : CURB

12000 3000
2500
11000 2000
1500
10000
1000

500
9000
0
8000 -500
20 20 20 20 20 20
0 0Q 01 02 00 01 02
1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q 1

51
 Short-Term Projection : CURBGDP Short-Term Projection : GTR
8 80000
7
6
75000
5
4
70000
3
2
1 65000
0
-1 60000
20 20 20 20 20 20
00 01 0 2Q 0 0Q 01 02
Q1 Q 1 1 1 Q 1 Q 1

Short-Term Projection : GTE Short-Term Projection : GBAL

90000 5000

0
80000

-5000

70000
-10000

60000 -15000
20 20 20 20 20 20
0 0Q 01 02 0 0Q 01 0 2Q
1 Q 1 Q1 1 Q 1 1

Short-Term Projection : GBALGDP Short-Term Projection : PGDP

1 450

-1 400

-2

-3 350

-4

-5 300
20 20 20 20 20 20
00 01 0 2Q 00 01 02
Q1 Q 1 1 Q1 Q 1 Q 1

52
 Short-Term Projection : WPI Short-Term Projection : CPI
270
450 260

250
400
240
230
350
220
210
300
20
00
20
0
20
02
200
Q1 1Q Q1
1 20 20 20
00 0 1Q 02
Q1 1 Q 1

Short-Term Projection : M2 Short-Term Projection : RITD

1100000 15

1000000
14
900000
13
800000

12
700000

600000 11
20 20 20 20 20 20
00 01 02 00 0 1Q 02
Q 1 Q 1 Q1 Q 1 1 Q1

Short-Term Projection : RLND Short-Term Projection : NEXA

20 12000

11000
19

10000
18
9000

17
8000

16 7000
20 20 20 20 20 20
00 0 1Q 02 0 0Q 01 02
Q 1 1 Q1 1 Q 1 Q 1

Source: Author’s estimation.

53
6. Conclusion

A lot of economists agree that a macroeconometric model should be employed for

policy analyses if they have experiences of simulating models. The most important
point of a model is thus its property. But many people who have no experiences of
simulating models do not understand this point. They think the traceablity of each
function is the most important, which well-experienced economists do not agree. For an
extreme example, in a macroeconometric model for policy analysis, some economists
employ functions with 0.3 or less adjusted R-squared value9.

In Indonesia, however, the concept that a model should be employed for policy analysis
is not matured yet and a lot of people think it should be employed for an economic
forecast. This is imbalanced utilization of a macroeconometric model. A lot of
economists in developed countries might criticize this Indonesian tendency.

For recent years, Indonesian economic data fluctuated so much due to Asian monetary
crisis. The exchange rate, prices, money supply, and many other variables jumped up
during six quarters from the second of 1997 to the last of 1998. It is therefore a very
hard task to estimate an appropriate model for policy analysis. A model analysis is,
however, required strongly for evaluating aftermath of the crisis at present.

I can stress that following points of TSQ model must be improved:

(1) At the database construction stage, more plausible state budget data must be
employed. The quarterly data simply divided from annual data should be replaced by
the actually estimated data.
(2) At the functions estimation stage, a virtual dummy data must be taken into account.
In this paper, I employed a simple time-series regressed dummy but more appropriate
data must be developed.
(3) For multiplier analysis, interest rate effects must be enlarged. At this version of TSQ
model, Indonesian LM curb is too flat to result in a typical crowding-out. This is not
very reliable.

9
See Hori et al. (2001).

54
APPENDIX 1

Equation List
(Notations)
1. General
RR adjusted R-square
DW Durbin-Watson ratio
SE standard error of regression
2. Time Series Functions
LOG() natural logarithm
G() growth rate over previous term
GY() growth rate over previous year
3. Polynomial Distributed Lag
PDL() Almon Lag
FAR endpoint constraint
4. Dummy Variables
DUM90Q1 Dummy for 1990Q1, etc.
DUM90Q1C91Q2 Dummy for 1990Q1 to 1991Q2, etc.
5. Figures with parentheses under coefficients indicate t-statistics.

DEMAND SECTOR
1. CPR : Private Consumption Expenditure (real, 1993 prices)
(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
CPR = 3368.2 + 0.2859 * ((NI - INCTAX) / PCP * 100) + 0.6568 * CPR(-1)
(1.702) (5.332) (9.352)
- 0.04402 * ((ACOFTB * NEXA / 1000 ) / PCP * 100) + 4610.4 * DUMCRIS
(-2.465) (2.557)
- 6339.3 * DUM92Q1 - 9148.1 * DUM93Q1 - 8095.2 * DUM94Q1 + 6533.9 * DUM94Q3
(-3.055) (-4.406) (-3.824) (3.107)
+ 4813.5 * DUM98Q2
(1.958)
RR = 0.984, DW = 2.027, SE = 2033.4, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1, Durbin's h = -0.186847

2. IR : Gross Fixed Capital Formation (real, 1993 prices)

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
IR = 2268.7 + 0.2107 * (GDPR(-1) + MR(-1)) - 0.1318 * (GDPR(-2) + MR(-2)) + 0.6530 * IR(-1)
(1.575) (3.555) (-2.566) (6.652)
- 134.9 * RLND + 0.4137 * (CPFDIB * NEXA / 1000 / PI * 100) - 7650.4 * DUM98Q1
(-2.372) (2.454) (-4.459)
RR = 0.957, DW = 2.540, SE = 1466.9, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1, Durbin's h = -3.3103

3. XR : Exports of Goods and Services (real, 1993 prices)

XR = X / PX * 100

4. MR : Imports of Goods and Services (real, 1993 prices)

MR = M / PM * 100

55
5. DAR : Domestic Absorption (real, 1993 prices)
DAR = CPR + CGR + IR

6. GDPR : Gross Domestic Product (real, 1993 prices)

GDPR = CPR + CGR + IR + JR + XR - MR

7. DPRR : Depreciation (real, 1993 prices)

DPRR = GDPR * 0.05 + DPRRSD

8. CP : Private Consumption Expenditure (nominal)

CP = CPR * PCP / 100

9. CG : Government Consumption Expenditure (nominal)

CG = CGR * PCG / 100

10. I : Gross Fixed Capital Formation (nominal)

I = IR * PI / 100

11. X : Exports of Goods and Services (nominal)

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
X = 2588.8 + 0.8638 * ((XGB + XSB) * NEXA / 1000) + 10444.6 * DUM98Q4
(4.334) (92.274) (2.794)
RR = 0.993, DW = 1.499, SE = 3674.1, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

12. M : Imports of Goods and Services (nominal)

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
M = 2229.9 + 0.8669 * ((MGB + MSB) * NEXA / 1000) + 15650.4 * DUM98Q4
(3.554) (68.199) (4.188)
+ 24596.3 * DUM01Q1
(6.311)
RR = 0.989, DW = 1.618, SE = 3667.2, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

13. DA : Domestic Absorption (nominal)

DA = CP + CG + I

14. GDP : Gross Domestic Product (nominal)

GDP = CP + CG + I + J + X - M

18. NFI : Net Factor Income (nominal)

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
NFI = -363.3 + 0.9430 * (INVOTHB * NEXA / 1000) - 4750.4 * DUMCRIS + 3980.9 * DUM98Q1
(-1.505) (9.765) (-4.828) (4.362)
+ 2783.6 * DUM99Q3 - 1927.5 * DUM99Q4
(2.707) (-2.167)
RR = 0.987, DW = 1.433, SE = 860.2, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1

16. GNP : Gross National Product (nominal)

GNP = GDP + NFI

17. TI : Net Indirect Tax (nominal)

TI = NINDTAX + TISD

56
18. DPR : Depreciation (nominal)
DPR = GDP * 0.05 + DPRSD

19. NI : National Income (nominal)

NI = GNP - TI - DPR

20. GDPDOL : Nominal Gross Domestic Product in US Dollar

GDPDOL = GDP / NEXA * 1000

21. GDPPC : per capita GDP in U.S. Dollar

GDPPC = GDPDOL * 4 / POP * 1000

22. RSAV : Saving Ratio

RSAV = (NI - INCTAX - CP) / (NI - INCTAX) * 100

FOREIGN SECTOR
23. XGB : Goods Exports
XGB = XNOGB + XOGB

24. XNOGB : Non-Oil/Gas Goods Exports

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

XNOGB = 8.465 * MDW - 2370.2 * (WPIX / (PXW * INEXA / 100)) + 769.9 * DUMCRIS
(23.488) (-6.737) (2.649)
+ 2596.9 * DUM97Q3 + 1920.5 * DUM00Q3 - 1189.7 * DUM90Q3C92Q1
(2.604) (1.888) (-2.997)
RR = 0.933, DW = 0.845, SE = 979.2, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

25. XOGB : Oil/Gas Goods Exports

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
XOGB = 0.6693 * MDW + 102.8 * POIL - 182.3 * DUMCRIS - 360.2 * DUM89Q4 + 554.4 * DUM91Q1
(9.358) (29.554) (-3.178) (-1.917) (2.946)
+ 429.2 * DUM97Q1 - 326.6 * DUM00Q2
(2.254) (-1.689)
RR = 0.918, DW = 1.629, SE = 186.0, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

26. MGB : Goods Imports

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
MGB = 0.2027 * GDPDOL - 772.0 * (WPIM / WPID) + 2218.1 * DUMCRIS + 1425.9 * DUM90Q3
(35.212) (-3.486) (12.031) (1.999)
+ 1934.4 * DUM97Q4 - 1865.1 * DUM99Q1 + 1846.1 * DUM00Q3
(2.706) (-2.535) (2.510)
RR = 0.941, DW = 1.007, SE = 704.0, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

27. TRDB : Trade Balance

TRDB = XGB - MGB

28. XSB : Service Exports (Credit)

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
XSB = -330.7 + 0.08032 * (XGB + MGB) - 252.6 * DUMCRIS - 221.1 * DUM91Q1
(-10.129) (37.314) (-8.726) (-2.353)

57
 - 217.8 * DUM95Q2 + 227.4 * DUM97Q3 + 350.8 * DUM98Q4 + 400.4 * DUM99Q1
(-2.272) (2.346) (3.609) (4.079)
- 177.7 * DUM00Q1
(-1.845)
RR = 0.965, DW = 1.346, SE = 93.03, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

29. MSB : Service Imports (Debit)

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
MSB = -106.8 + 0.1601 * (XGB + MGB) - 211.0 * DUMCRIS - 464.0 * DUM90Q3C92Q1
(-1.655) (38.539) (-3.822) (-6.176)
+ 640.8 * DUM97Q2 + 499.8 * DUM98Q2
(3.320) (2.566)
RR = 0.971, DW = 1.171, SE = 184.4, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

30. INVB : Invisible Balance

INVB = XSB - MSB + INVOTHB

31. CURB : Current Account

CURB = TRDB + INVB

32. CURBGDP : Ratio of Current Account to GDP

CURBGDP = CURB * NEXA / 1000 / GDP * 100

33. COFTB : Official Capital Net Inflows

COFTB = COFINFB - COFDRB

34. CPRTB : Private Capital Net Inflows

CPRTB = CPFDIB + CPOTHB

35. CPFDIB : Foreign Direct Investments

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
CPFDIB = -619.0 + 0.03144 * GDPDOL + 4.989 * (RSBI - LIBOR - GY(NEXA)) - 938.0 * DUMCRIS
(-5.184) (9.737) (6.391) (-11.410)
+ 966.0 * DUM96Q1 + 1100.6 * DUM97Q1 - 613.3 * DUM98Q1 - 989.9 * DUM00Q1
(3.439) (3.846) (-1.889) (-3.446)
- 1064.1 * DUM00Q4
(-3.703)
RR = 0.870, DW = 1.771, SE = 271.9, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1

36. CPOTHB : Portfolio Investments (Private Capital Others)

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
CPOTHB = 5810.9 + 0.09193 * GDPDOL + 19.45 * ((RSBI - LIBOR) / 4 - G(NEXA))
(3.663) (4.683) (2.360)
- 0.1098 * ACPOTHB(-1) - 2391.0 * DUMCRIS + 3615.0 * DUM98Q2
(-4.017) (-9.092) (3.066)
RR = 0.714, DW = 2.313, SE = 979.6, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1

37. ACOFTB : Accumulated Official Net Inflow (Government Debt Outstanding)

ACOFTB = ACOFTB(-1) + COFTB

38. ACPFDIB : Accumulated Foreign Direct Investments

ACPFDIB = ACPFDIB(-1) + CPFDIB

58
39. ACPOTHB : Accumulated Portfolio Investments
ACPOTHB = ACPOTHB(-1) + CPOTHB

40. CAPB : Capital Balance

CAPB = COFTB + CPRTB

41. TOTB : Total Balance

TOTB = CURB + CAPB

42. MDW : World Import Value

MDW = MDUS + MDJA + MDOTH

43. MDUS : Import Value of US

(FIRST-ORDER SERIAL CORRELATION OF THE ERROR = COCHRANE-ORCUTT PROCEDURE)
LOG(MDUS) = -18.49 + 2.654 * LOG(GDPUS) - 0.05975 * DUM91Q1 - 0.05990 * DUM92Q1
(-32.929) (42.015) (-2.468) (-2.474)
- 0.05225 * DUM93Q1 - 0.05812 * DUM94Q1 - 0.06014 * DUM98Q1
(-2.160) (-2.403) (-2.481)
- 0.07098 * DUM99Q1 - 0.06618 * DUM01Q1
(-2.889) (-2.252)
RR = 0.993, DW = 2.152, SE = 0.03059, RHO = 0.594, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1, RHO = 0.5937
(5.827)

44. MDJA : Import Value of Japan

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(MDJA) = -31.46 + 2.724 * LOG(GDPJA) + 0.2134 * DUM95Q2 - 0.1947 * DUM98Q2
(-24.813) (28.038) (2.276) (-2.066)
RR = 0.926, DW = 0.588, SE = 0.09283, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

STATE GOVERNMENT SECTOR

45. GTR : Government Total Revenues
GTR = GRR + GDR

46. GRR : Routine (Domestic) Revenues

GRR = GROG + GRNOG

47. GROG : Oil/Gas Revenues

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
GROG = 476.6 + 0.6009 * (XOGB * NEXA / 1000) + 2508.3 * DUM97Q3 - 3336.5 * DUM98Q1
(3.557) (50.151) (3.411) (-4.463)
- 4176.7 * DUM98Q3 + 2243.3 * DUM99Q2 - 1885.1 * DUM00Q1 + 7055.6 * DUM00Q2
(-5.525) (3.020) (-2.435) (9.156)
RR = 0.982, DW = 1.519, SE = 729.1, Sample = 1985:2 to 2001:1

48. GRNOG : Non-Oil/Gas Revenues

GRNOG = INCTAX + INDTAX + NONTAX

49. INCTAX : Income Tax

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(INCTAX) = -9.023 + 1.514 * LOG(GNP) - 0.1916 * DUMCRIS + 0.1766 * DUM85Q4
(-37.742) (69.972) (-6.224) (2.061)

59
 - 0.2797 * DUM87Q2C87Q3 + 0.1695 * DUM91Q4C93Q1 - 0.1995 * DUM00Q1
(-4.580) (4.717) (-2.365)
RR = 0.995, DW = 0.877, SE = 0.08197, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:2

50. VAETAX : VAT, Sales Tax on Luxury Goods and Excise Duties
(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(VAETAX) = -5.314 + 1.232 * LOG(CP) - 0.3781 * DUMCRIS - 0.2004 * DUM86Q3
(-17.406) (42.543) (-7.899) (-1.716)
- 0.2681 * DUM87Q3 + 0.2577 * DUM92Q1 + 0.2600 * DUM94Q1
(-2.309) (2.242) (2.257)
- 0.3186 * DUM98Q4C00Q1 + 0.1427 * DUM00Q2C00Q4
(-5.131) (1.803)
RR = 0.984, DW = 0.993, SE = 0.1137, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:2

51. IMPTAX : Import Duties

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
IMPTAX = 210.0 + 0.02817 * (MGB * NEXA / 1000) - 989.3 * DUMCRIS - 985.4 * DUM98Q3
(4.106) (8.937) (-6.230) (-4.268)
+ 756.0 * DUM00Q4 + 981.1 * DUM01Q1
(3.325) (4.343)
RR = 0.785, DW = 0.411, SE = 210.3, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:1

52. INDTAX : Indirect Tax

INDTAX = VAETAX + IMPTAX + OTHTAX

53. GTE : Government Total Expenditures

GTE = GRE + GDE

54. GRE : Routine Expenditures

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
GRE = -2617.1 + 1.872 * CG + 9132.3 * DUMCRIS - 10500.9 * DUM99Q2
(-4.300) (21.305) (10.365) (-4.866)
+ 15347.2 * DUM00Q3C01Q3
(11.286)
RR = 0.989, DW = 1.227, SE = 1979.9, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

55. NINDTAX : Net Indirect Tax (State Budget)

NINDTAX = INDTAX - SB

56. GBAL : Government Balance

GBAL = GTR - GTE

57. GBALGDP : Ratio of Government Balance to GDP

GBALGDP = GBAL / GDP * 100

PRICES SECTOR
58. WPI : General Wholesale Price Index
WPI = WPID * 0.42396687 + WPIX * 0.22498575 + WPIM * 0.35104737 + WPISD

59. WPID : Domestic Wholesale Price Index

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)

60
 LOG(WPID) = -1.287 + 0.2968 * LOG(M2) + 0.3366 * LOG(NEXA) - 0.2461 * DUM97Q2C98Q4
(-12.138) (19.099) (12.929) (-8.993)
RR = 0.985, DW = 1.239, SE = 0.06109, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1

60. WPIX : Exports Wholesale Price Index

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(WPIX) = 0.2463 + 0.5536 * LOG(WPID) + 0.3382 * LOG(PXW) + 0.8698 * DUMCRIS
(0.323) (7.535) (1.527) (14.274)
- 0.4006 * DUM86Q2C86Q3 + 0.2828 * DUM97Q2C97Q4
(-5.245) (4.698)
RR = 0.982, DW = 1.016, SE = 0.09992, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

61. WPIM : Imports Wholesale Price Index

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(WPIM) = -1.098 + 0.5449 * LOG(WPID) + 0.6959 * LOG(PMW) + 0.4443 * DUMCRIS
(-3.809) (30.196) (9.509) (25.982)
- 0.08607 * DUM85Q4C86Q3 + 0.05415 * DUM93Q1C94Q1
(-5.386) (3.896)
- 0.05056 * DUM95Q1C96Q1 - 0.07326 * DUM99Q1
(-3.650) (-2.669)
RR = 0.997, DW = 0.731, SE = 0.02636, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

62. CPI : Consumer Price Index

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(CPI) = -0.09954 + PDL &2 <<SUM: + 0.9344>> LOG(WPID)(0:-3) + 0.07726 * DUMCRIS
(-1.705) (6.348)
+ 0.1397 * DUM97Q2C98Q4
(11.505)
RR = 0.997, DW = 0.847, SE = 0.02669, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:1
Polynomial Distributed Lag: &2 Degree = 1, FAR
0: + 0.3738 (74.208)
-1: + 0.2803 (74.208)
-2: + 0.1869 (74.208)
-3: + 0.0934 (74.208)
SUM: + 0.9344

63. INFLAT : Inflation Rate

INFLAT = GY(CPI)

64. PCP : Deflator for Private Consumption

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(PCP) = 0.5365 + 0.9398 * LOG(CPI) + 0.1309 * DUMCRIS - 0.07281 * DUM98Q1C98Q2
(13.195) (96.850) (13.131) (-4.390)
+ 0.05191 * DUM99Q4
(2.462)
RR = 0.999, DW = 0.361, SE = 0.02040, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:2

65. PCG : Deflator for Government Consumption

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(PCG) = -0.3180 + 1.019 * LOG(WPID) + 0.08843 * DUMCRIS - 0.1704 * DUM87Q4
(-1.919) (28.314) (2.534) (-2.074)
- 0.1716 * DUM88Q3C88Q4 + 0.2717 * DUM97Q2 + 0.1747 * DUM97Q3
(-2.919) (3.289) (2.133)

61
 RR = 0.980, DW = 0.962, SE = 0.08084, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

66. PI : Deflator for Gross Fixed Capital Formation

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(PI) = 0.8302 + 0.7928 * LOG(WPID) + 0.3090 * DUMCRIS - 0.1586 * DUM98Q3
(9.028) (39.816) (15.890) (-3.444)
+ 0.1080 * DUM99Q4C00Q1
(3.343)
RR = 0.994, DW = 1.225, SE = 0.04225, Sample = 1985:3 to 2001:1

67. PX : Deflator for Export of Goods and Services

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(PX) = -0.8954 + 1.237 * LOG(WPIX) - 0.3728 * DUMCRIS - 0.3506 * DUM90Q4
(-5.113) (30.358) (-6.528) (-4.319)
+ 0.1972 * DUM94Q1 - 0.2177 * DUM97Q1C98Q3 + 0.2120 * DUM98Q4
(2.482) (-6.346) (2.586)
RR = 0.988, DW = 0.714, SE = 0.07864, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

68. PM : Deflator for Import of Goods and Services

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(PM) = -2.978 + 1.617 * LOG(WPIM) - 0.2309 * DUMCRIS + 0.1483 * DUM85Q2
(-17.269) (42.956) (-6.446) (2.537)
- 0.2175 * DUM86Q3 - 0.1945 * DUM87Q1 - 0.2455 * DUM87Q2 - 0.1427 * DUM98Q3
(-3.742) (-3.455) (-4.363) (-2.399)
RR = 0.994, DW = 0.684, SE = 0.05521, Sample = 1985:1 to 2001:1

69. PGDP : Deflator for Gross Domestic Product

PGDP = GDP / GDPR * 100

MONETARY SECTOR
70. RITD : Time Deposit Rate
(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
RITD = -16.57 + 0.9081 * RSBI + 10.89 * LOG(GDP) - 9.864 * LOG(M1) - 2.168 * DUMCRIS
(-2.328) (13.772) (3.079) (-2.790) (-2.250)
+ 4.579 * DUM91Q2 - 18.98 * DUM98Q2 - 20.93 * DUM98Q3 + 13.16 * DUM98Q4
(2.169) (-5.566) (-5.530) (5.262)
RR = 0.925, DW = 1.526, SE = 2.052, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

71. RLND : Lending Rate

(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
RLND = 20.56 + 0.3184 * RSBI + 5.082 * LOG(GDP) - 5.967 * LOG(M1) + 4.799 * DUM91Q2
(6.417) (16.788) (2.675) (-3.265) (4.696)
+ 2.933 * DUM91Q3C92Q3 - 1.939 * DUM94Q2C95Q3 + 4.353 * DUM97Q4 - 3.000 * DUM98Q3
(6.154) (-4.356) (4.232) (-1.991)
+ 6.332 * DUM98Q4C99Q3
(9.058)
RR = 0.942, DW = 1.576, SE = 1.003, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

62
72. QM : Quasi Money Supply
(ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES)
LOG(QM) = -7.022 + 1.623 * LOG(GDP) + 0.006869 * RITD - 0.3024 * DUMCRIS - 0.2100 * DUM87Q2
(-25.907) (68.037) (4.164) (-8.251) (-2.370)
+ 0.2558 * DUM90Q2 + 0.1839 * DUM98Q1
(2.932) (2.036)
RR = 0.995, DW = 1.435, SE = 0.08601, Sample = 1986:1 to 2001:2

73. M2 : Money Supply of Broad Definition

M2 = M1 + QM

74. INEXA : Index of Rupiah Nominal Exchange Rate

INEXA = NEXA / (2066.85 + 2076.92 + 2098.60 + 2106.04) * 4 * 100

Source: Author’s estimation.

63
APPENDIX 2

Variable List

Notations Types Definitions Units Sources

Demand Sector
CPR EN Private Consumption Expenditure (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
CGR EX Government Consumption Expenditure (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
IR EN Gross Fixed Capital Formation (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
XR EN Exports of Goods and Services (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
MR EN Imports of Goods and Services (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
JR EX Change in Stock (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
DAR EN Domestic Absorption (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. estimate
GDPR EN Gross Domestic Product (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
DPRR EN Depreciation (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
DPRRSD EX Statistical Discrepancy of DPRR (real, 1993 prices) bill. Rp. estimate
CP EN Private Consumption Expenditure (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
CG EN Government Consumption Expenditure (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
I EN Gross Fixed Capital Formation (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
X EN Exports of Goods and Services (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
M EN Imports of Goods and Services (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
J EX Change in Stock (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
DA EN Domestic Absorption (nominal) bill. Rp. estimate
GDP EN Gross Domestic Product (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
NFI EN Net Factor Income (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
GNP EN Gross National Product (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
TI EN Net Indirect Tax (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
TISD EX Statistical Discrepancy for TI bill. Rp. BI, IFS
DPR EN Depreciation (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
DPRSD EX Statistical Discrepancy for DPR bill. Rp. estimate
NI EN National Income (nominal) bill. Rp. BI, IFS
GDPDOL EN Nominal Gross Domestic Product in US Dollar mill. US$ estimate
GDPPC EN per capita GDP in U.S. Dollar US$ estimate
RSAV EN Saving Ratio % estimate
Foreign Sector
TRDB EN Trade Balance mill. US$ BI, IFS
XGB EN Goods Exports mill. US$ BI, IFS
XNOGB EN Non-Oil/Gas Goods Exports mill. US$ BI, IFS
XOGB EN Oil/Gas Goods Exports mill. US$ BI, IFS
MGB EN Goods Imports mill. US$ BI, IFS
INVB EN Invisible Balance mill. US$ BI, IFS
XSB EN Service Exports (Credit) mill. US$ IMF, IFS
MSB EN Service Imports (Debit) mill. US$ IMF, IFS
INVOTHB EX Other Invisible Balance (Net) mill. US$ estimate
CURB EN Current Account mill. US$ BI, IFS
CURBGDP EN Ratio of Current Account to GDP % to GDP estimate
COFTB EN Official Capital Net Inflows mill. US$ BI, IFS
COFINFB EX Official Capital Inflows mill. US$ BI, IFS
COFDRB EX Official Capital Outflows mill. US$ BI, IFS
CPRTB EN Private Capital Net Inflows mill. US$ BI, IFS
CPFDIB EN Foreign Direct Investments mill. US$ BI, IFS
CPOTHB EN Portfolio Investments (Private Capital Others) mill. US$ BI, IFS
CAPB EN Capital Balance mill. US$ BI, IFS
TOTB EN Total Balance mill. US$ BI, IFS
ACPFDIB EN Accumulated Foreign Direct Investments mill. US$ estimate

64
ACPOTHB EN Accumulated Portfolio Investments mill. US$ estimate
ACOFTB EN Accumulated Official Net Inflow (Government External Debt Outstanding) mill. US$ estimate
MDW EN World Import Value bill. US$ IMF, IFS
MDUS EN Import Value of US bill. US$ IMF, IFS
MDJA EN Import Value of Japan bill. US$ IMF, IFS
MDOTH EX Other World Import Value then US and Japan bill. US$ estimate
GDPUS EX US GDP bill. US$ SCB, USDC
GDPJA EX Japan GDP bill. JPN Yen SNA, CAO
State Government Sector
GTR EN Government Total Revenues bill. Rp. estimate
GRR EN Routine (Domestic) Revenues bill. Rp. estimate
GROG EN Oil/Gas Revenues bill. Rp. estimate
GRNOG EN Non-Oil/Gas Revenues bill. Rp. estimate
INCTAX EN Income Tax bill. Rp. estimate
VAETAX EN VAT, Sales Tax on Luxury Goods and Excise Duties bill. Rp. estimate
IMPTAX EN Import Duties bill. Rp. estimate
OTHTAX EX Other Taxes than Income Tax, VAT, and Import Duties bill. Rp. estimate
NONTAX EX Non-Tax Revenues bill. Rp. estimate
GDR EX Development Revenues bill. Rp. estimate
GTE EN Government Total Expenditures bill. Rp. estimate
GRE EN Routine Expenditures bill. Rp. estimate
GDE EX Development Expenditures bill. Rp. estimate
INDTAX EN Indirect Tax bill. Rp. estimate
SB EX Subsidy bill. Rp. estimate
NINDTAX EN Net Indirect Tax (State Budget) bill. Rp. estimate
GBAL EN Government Balance bill. Rp. estimate
GBALGDP EN Ratio of Government Balance to GDP % to GDP estimate
Prices Sector
PCP EN Deflator for Private Consumption 1993=100 estimate
PCG EN Deflator for Government Consumption 1993=100 estimate
PI EN Deflator for Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1993=100 estimate
PX EN Deflator for Export of Goods and Services 1993=100 estimate
PM EN Deflator for Import of Goods and Services 1993=100 estimate
PGDP EN Deflator for Gross Domestic Product 1993=100 estimate
WPI EN General Wholesale Price Index 1993=100 BPS, EI
WPID EN Domestic Wholesale Price Index 1993=100 BPS, EI
WPIX EN Exports Wholesale Price Index 1993=100 BPS, EI
WPIM EN Imports Wholesale Price Index 1993=100 BPS, EI
WPISD EX Statistical Discrepancy of WPI none estimate
CPI EN Consumer Price Index 1996=100 BPS, EI
INFLAT EN Inflation Rate % estimate
POIL EX Export Price of Oil in US$ US$/barrel BI, IFS
PXW EX Export Price Index of World 1995=100 IMF, IFS
PMW EX Import Price Index of World 1995=100 IMF, IFS
Monetary Sector
M1 EX Money Supply of Narrow Definition bill. Rp. IMF, IFS
QM EN Quasi Money Supply bill. Rp. IMF, IFS
M2 EN Money Supply of Broad Definition bill. Rp. IMF, IFS
RITD EN Time Deposit Rate % IMF, IFS
RLND EN Lending Rate % IMF, IFS
RSBI EX SBI's Discount Rate (28 Days) % BI, IFS
LIBOR EX London Interbank Offer Rate (Euro Dollar) % IMF, IFS
NEXA EX Rupiah Nominal Exchange Rate (period average) Rp./US$ IMF, IFS
INEXA EN Index of Rupiah Nominal Exchange Rate 1993=100 estimate
Other
POP EX Population 1000 Prsns estimate

65
NOTE: Abbreviations of sources are subject to below:
BI, IFS Bank Indonesia, Indonesian Financial Statistics
BPS, EI Central Bureau of Statistics, Economic Indicators
IMF, IFS International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics
Estimate Author’s estimation

66
APPENDIX 3 Results of Short-Term Projection
CPR CGR IR XR MR JR DAR GDPR DPRR DPRRSD
1985Q1 25074.2 5959.8 9620.5 10685.6 12523.7 6482.6 40654.5 45299.0 2264.9 -0.1
1985Q2 27408.9 4908.7 8759.9 9758.9 10605.8 5909.3 41077.5 46139.9 2307.0 0.0
1985Q3 27676.8 5445.6 9390.7 10063.4 12775.8 6586.4 42513.1 46387.1 2319.4 0.0
1985Q4 23487.3 5442.2 8816.8 10681.8 13869.3 8791.3 37746.3 43350.1 2167.5 0.0
1986Q1 24406.8 6820.4 8833.5 11419.1 13757.9 9298.5 40060.7 47020.4 2351.0 0.0
1986Q2 26481.8 4997.7 10440.6 11087.7 10999.6 6549.3 41920.1 48557.5 2427.9 0.0
1986Q3 29921.9 5032.6 10815.8 12547.4 15916.3 8238.2 45770.3 50639.6 2532.1 0.1
1986Q4 27252.7 4917.4 11664.2 12625.9 11177.8 2699.9 43834.3 47982.3 2399.0 -0.1
1987Q1 26002.7 5731.8 10275.3 11427.7 12702.2 9476.0 42009.8 50211.3 2510.7 0.1
1987Q2 28213.3 5125.1 10244.0 12359.5 14887.4 12273.1 43582.4 53327.6 2666.3 -0.1
1987Q3 31280.3 5344.4 11867.3 14691.8 12655.8 2822.1 48492.0 53350.1 2667.4 -0.1
1987Q4 29384.3 5246.2 11784.9 14926.2 12631.0 1363.2 46415.4 50073.8 2503.7 0.0
1988Q1 27513.1 6045.4 10816.6 12055.8 10054.8 6100.8 44375.1 52476.9 2624.4 0.6
1988Q2 30619.6 5472.8 12153.0 12105.1 10608.8 6976.4 48245.4 56718.1 2836.4 0.5
1988Q3 33527.4 5647.0 14668.7 13743.1 10951.7 139.6 53843.1 56774.1 2839.5 0.8
1988Q4 31483.9 5914.7 14478.0 16046.0 11917.5 -567.1 51876.6 55438.0 2770.1 -1.8
1989Q1 29788.0 6390.4 12943.9 14076.4 11387.5 7768.4 49122.3 59579.6 2923.9 -55.1
1989Q2 34223.8 6181.7 13979.3 13944.9 11799.0 3120.7 54384.8 59651.4 3050.0 67.4
1989Q3 35346.6 6259.5 16235.5 15423.4 12431.7 982.8 57841.6 61816.1 3088.3 -2.5
1989Q4 32971.6 6626.4 16731.8 16121.5 12951.5 974.3 56329.8 60474.1 3013.9 -9.8
1990Q1 35225.2 6982.4 15426.1 13449.1 13126.2 6103.9 57633.7 64060.5 3203.0 0.0
1990Q2 39170.1 6276.5 15165.9 14185.0 13364.8 4307.8 60612.5 65740.5 3287.0 0.0
1990Q3 42167.8 6557.1 17949.8 14777.7 15641.7 2019.8 66674.7 67830.5 3391.5 0.0
1990Q4 38531.0 6872.9 20977.6 17396.0 16848.7 -1298.3 66381.5 65630.5 3281.5 0.0
1991Q1 40097.4 7438.5 19939.6 16888.3 17005.7 3317.5 67475.5 70675.6 3533.8 0.0
1991Q2 39784.3 6519.2 19034.7 18452.0 16964.6 3855.7 65338.2 70681.3 3534.1 0.0
1991Q3 43745.5 6959.7 19081.8 18218.0 17217.1 2742.4 69787.0 73530.3 3676.5 0.0
1991Q4 43828.0 7176.2 20431.6 18143.3 17669.0 -32.0 71435.8 71878.1 3593.9 0.0
1992Q1 37730.1 7718.9 17560.3 18139.8 17065.5 10759.1 63009.3 74842.7 3742.1 0.0
1992Q2 40272.5 6728.7 20899.8 19069.0 18551.5 7158.2 67901.0 75576.7 3778.8 0.0
1992Q3 46753.2 7213.1 20730.4 20792.2 19424.9 3319.2 74696.7 79383.2 3969.2 0.0
1992Q4 47884.5 8041.7 22111.2 24604.0 19857.7 -5112.0 78037.4 77671.7 3883.6 0.0
1993Q1 38893.9 7600.4 20364.8 20964.8 18709.1 10153.5 66859.1 79268.3 3963.4 0.0
1993Q2 40796.1 6897.3 20092.5 20315.0 18339.7 11592.9 67785.9 81354.1 4067.7 0.0
1993Q3 49815.9 7457.7 21972.7 21564.0 20000.9 4033.5 79246.3 84842.9 4242.1 0.0
1993Q4 54024.5 7801.3 24237.3 22452.4 21333.3 -2871.7 86063.1 84310.5 4215.5 0.0
1994Q1 45104.5 7807.4 21879.8 20713.1 21766.6 11866.7 74791.7 85604.9 4280.2 0.0
1994Q2 47231.4 7285.2 24697.3 24111.5 22213.6 6776.3 79213.9 87888.1 4394.4 0.0
1994Q3 57363.2 7592.0 25095.4 25357.0 24220.4 -44.2 90050.6 91143.0 4557.1 -0.1
1994Q4 58363.0 7758.0 26916.5 26820.5 26090.4 -3762.8 93037.5 90004.8 4500.2 0.0
1995Q1 57623.0 7895.7 26372.7 23358.6 27041.7 4354.8 91891.4 92563.1 4628.2 0.0
1995Q2 57678.5 6925.8 26803.3 24951.6 29272.5 7253.7 91407.6 94340.4 4717.0 0.0
1995Q3 59100.3 7498.2 29708.2 28527.1 30121.5 3581.4 96306.7 98293.7 4914.7 0.0
1995Q4 59843.6 8530.9 29502.2 27654.5 27598.9 662.8 97876.7 98595.1 4929.8 0.0
1996Q1 63797.2 8389.7 28341.6 25779.6 28069.0 -364.3 100528.5 97874.8 4893.7 0.0
1996Q2 62978.2 7301.4 30156.6 28060.1 32424.6 4563.1 100436.2 100634.8 5031.7 0.0
1996Q3 64179.5 7673.4 36020.0 28830.1 31235.9 1094.9 107872.9 106562.0 5328.1 0.0
1996Q4 66061.3 8316.9 34180.4 29721.6 30133.3 579.4 108558.6 108726.3 5436.3 0.0
1997Q1 66211.1 8306.4 34154.7 24967.9 31624.8 3395.9 108672.2 105411.2 5270.6 0.0
1997Q2 67514.3 7138.7 35446.8 28951.1 33214.7 1487.2 110099.8 107323.4 5366.2 0.0
1997Q3 68233.2 7676.6 36283.1 31727.6 33694.4 -162.6 112192.9 110063.5 5503.2 0.0
1997Q4 71958.8 8579.1 33840.2 35511.3 41262.2 2670.2 114378.1 111297.4 5564.9 0.0
1998Q1 69183.8 7115.1 25422.3 39341.2 39021.7 -957.2 101721.2 101083.5 5054.2 0.0
1998Q2 68490.8 6620.5 22043.2 35268.7 36104.2 -5915.5 97154.5 90403.5 4520.2 0.0
1998Q3 63808.5 6218.6 22879.7 38924.5 35168.5 -2530.8 92906.8 94132.0 4706.6 0.0
1998Q4 66429.6 6873.7 19725.6 21172.8 22106.3 -1662.8 93028.9 90432.6 4521.6 0.0
1999Q1 66461.9 6841.1 18564.3 22165.5 18893.7 -1166.3 91867.3 93972.8 4698.6 0.0
1999Q2 66753.9 7297.8 18054.9 22119.3 20532.1 153.7 92106.6 93847.5 4692.4 0.0
1999Q3 67065.8 6193.4 18252.1 24040.6 19845.5 -579.6 91511.3 95126.8 4756.3 0.0
1999Q4 67464.9 6682.0 20070.3 23798.2 19275.1 -3636.0 94217.2 95104.3 4755.2 0.0
2000Q1 69251.1 7036.8 21089.9 25521.7 19842.8 -4471.8 97377.8 98584.9 4929.2 0.0
2000Q2 70059.8 7322.4 21935.9 26798.5 21335.8 -6314.2 99318.1 98466.6 4923.3 0.0
2000Q3 70891.7 6919.6 22684.2 27420.5 23843.6 -3403.2 100495.5 100669.2 5033.5 0.0
2000Q4 71754.8 7489.0 23274.5 27176.8 27800.4 -1949.1 102518.3 99945.6 4997.3 0.0
2001Q1 73313.6 7456.2 23816.4 30218.7 29090.2 -4071.2 104586.2 101643.5 5082.2 0.0
2001Q2 73427.7 7631.2 23493.4 31466.5 27530.4 -6750.7 104552.3 101737.7 5086.9 0.0
2001Q3 75942.7 7740.6 21708.3 29221.8 23437.0 -7013.8 105391.6 104162.6 5208.1 0.0
2001Q4 75142.8 7800.0 22791.4 27210.5 22785.0 -7000.0 105734.2 103159.7 5158.0 0.0
2002Q1 76605.1 7850.0 22607.8 29986.5 25227.6 -7000.0 107062.9 104821.8 5241.1 0.0
2002Q2 77188.4 7900.0 23866.8 32532.8 29098.7 -7000.0 108955.2 105389.3 5269.5 0.0
2002Q3 80022.0 7950.0 22877.9 30708.5 26300.5 -7000.0 110849.9 108257.9 5412.9 0.0
2002Q4 79258.3 8000.0 24436.9 28607.7 25890.4 -7000.0 111695.2 107412.5 5370.6 0.0

67
 CP CG I X M J DA GDP NFI GNP
1985Q1 13486.2 2952.5 5642.8 5891.1 5121.2 888.6 22081.5 23740.0 -715.1 23024.9
1985Q2 15189.1 2599.6 5349.9 5393.5 4850.0 1488.6 23138.6 25170.7 -1130.4 24040.3
1985Q3 15412.8 2918.9 5761.7 5507.0 4684.4 519.3 24093.4 25435.3 -979.5 24455.8
1985Q4 13113.3 2929.1 5286.3 5730.8 5179.6 2180.6 21328.7 24060.5 -1115.9 22944.6
1986Q1 14418.6 3516.9 5310.1 5353.8 5063.6 3116.1 23245.6 26651.9 -1067.0 25584.9
1986Q2 15807.5 2592.0 6289.4 4161.5 4378.2 1272.3 24688.9 25744.5 -868.3 24876.2
1986Q3 18117.4 2652.1 6634.1 4640.3 5281.5 270.9 27403.6 27033.3 -859.6 26173.7
1986Q4 17241.3 2767.7 7967.9 6861.7 6312.9 -522.2 27976.9 28003.5 -1397.6 26605.9
1987Q1 16906.9 3286.6 7109.0 6371.1 6302.1 2879.9 27302.5 30251.4 -1429.9 28821.5
1987Q2 18750.4 2864.3 7267.7 7094.9 7081.9 4195.7 28882.4 33091.1 -1495.1 31596.0
1987Q3 21165.0 2882.1 8390.2 8479.0 7191.9 274.0 32437.3 33998.4 -1635.0 32363.4
1987Q4 20547.9 2730.5 8650.8 8731.0 7379.9 -1080.6 31929.2 32199.7 -1462.0 30737.7
1988Q1 19541.9 3456.9 7732.8 8459.7 7135.0 3114.2 30731.6 35170.5 -1733.0 33437.5
1988Q2 22115.3 2996.4 8825.3 8577.2 7646.0 3918.7 33937.0 38786.9 -1746.7 37040.2
1988Q3 24684.9 3054.2 10892.5 9140.6 7973.9 -1062.6 38631.6 38735.7 -1596.3 37139.4
1988Q4 23380.2 3248.3 10905.7 9407.9 8810.7 -1155.2 37534.2 36976.2 -1845.8 35130.4
1989Q1 22222.1 3868.8 9961.7 9821.9 8585.0 5664.7 36052.6 42954.2 -2005.7 40948.5
1989Q2 26172.9 3905.7 11132.6 10506.1 9315.1 3090.7 41211.2 45492.9 -2012.3 43480.6
1989Q3 27184.6 3791.7 13055.3 11336.3 9987.0 1446.1 44031.6 46827.0 -2049.2 44777.8
1989Q4 24654.4 4131.4 13556.1 11950.1 10555.9 571.6 42341.9 44307.7 -2006.9 42300.8
1990Q1 27037.3 4908.5 12721.3 11642.7 10877.8 3984.7 44667.1 49416.7 -2202.2 47214.5
1990Q2 30760.2 4393.9 12856.8 11246.4 11103.1 2345.7 48010.9 50499.9 -1862.4 48637.5
1990Q3 34391.2 4457.9 15533.1 13711.8 13260.7 -542.8 54382.2 54290.5 -2603.0 51687.5
1990Q4 31995.5 4888.8 18646.8 16687.9 14804.1 -755.7 55531.1 56659.2 -2947.9 53711.3
1991Q1 33419.2 5255.4 16537.6 14864.6 14676.8 5048.7 55212.2 60448.7 -2719.9 57728.8
1991Q2 33916.1 4626.1 16043.1 15492.1 14841.1 4887.6 54585.3 60123.9 -2521.3 57602.6
1991Q3 38630.9 5276.2 17165.2 16394.4 15096.9 2206.8 61072.3 64576.6 -2833.8 61742.8
1991Q4 39574.2 5626.9 17741.8 17113.5 15634.5 397.5 62942.9 64819.4 -2838.0 61981.4
1992Q1 33902.4 6134.0 17167.8 16823.7 16014.1 8945.8 57204.2 66959.6 -2860.2 64099.4
1992Q2 36663.9 5619.1 17952.0 18140.5 17414.1 8028.0 60235.0 68989.4 -2689.2 66300.2
1992Q3 42936.0 6043.6 18346.6 20172.1 18294.4 3774.8 67326.2 72978.7 -3598.1 69380.6
1992Q4 44407.5 6934.6 19308.0 23586.3 18757.9 -2011.2 70650.1 73467.3 -3394.9 70072.4
1993Q1 37886.2 7114.5 20023.8 20219.7 18549.9 11022.4 65024.5 77716.7 -3393.3 74323.4
1993Q2 40529.1 7309.8 19947.8 20917.7 18339.5 10852.1 67786.7 81217.0 -3007.4 78209.6
1993Q3 50078.0 7487.9 22077.7 21666.7 20068.7 4129.0 79643.6 85370.6 -3189.0 82181.6
1993Q4 55037.2 7844.5 24618.0 22492.1 21424.9 -3095.3 87499.7 85471.6 -2962.9 82508.7
1994Q1 47885.7 7303.8 22199.4 21174.7 22161.9 11577.3 77388.9 87979.0 -2354.2 85624.8
1994Q2 50987.3 7609.4 25297.2 24865.1 22635.1 6864.5 83893.9 92988.4 -2316.5 90671.9
1994Q3 63417.1 7855.6 26202.7 26992.9 24927.1 268.5 97475.4 99809.7 -2754.1 97055.6
1994Q4 65829.2 8245.2 31681.3 28299.2 27228.5 -5383.8 105755.7 101442.6 -2823.6 98619.0
1995Q1 66649.2 8759.9 29204.9 26639.8 28828.5 4117.9 104614.0 106543.2 -3357.9 103185.3
1995Q2 68657.1 8308.5 30266.7 29266.3 32006.2 7175.7 107232.3 111668.1 -3165.2 108502.9
1995Q3 71276.9 8485.9 34187.6 31782.7 33604.7 4991.6 113950.4 117120.0 -3253.3 113866.7
1995Q4 73293.2 10029.9 35558.3 31903.7 31217.5 -384.8 118881.4 119182.8 -3589.7 115593.1
1996Q1 80944.0 10491.7 32786.0 30779.0 31575.3 -895.9 124221.7 122529.5 -3357.0 119172.5
1996Q2 80687.7 9643.4 35607.3 33906.6 37090.9 6091.4 125938.4 128845.5 -3319.8 125525.7
1996Q3 82996.5 9685.5 43542.0 35377.6 36467.9 1806.1 136224.0 136939.8 -3871.9 133067.9
1996Q4 87466.2 10478.6 45717.4 37470.1 35677.9 -1201.2 143662.2 144253.2 -3722.5 140530.7
1997Q1 89505.3 10471.0 40973.3 33641.2 37525.0 5882.1 140949.6 142947.9 -3696.1 139251.8
1997Q2 93045.7 10389.8 44380.2 36530.6 40243.4 4776.4 147815.7 148879.3 -4474.1 144405.2
1997Q3 97198.4 10520.7 46519.5 43354.2 41990.5 2441.2 154238.6 158043.5 -4185.3 153858.2
1997Q4 108972.9 11570.5 45827.4 61345.3 56840.9 4760.0 166370.8 175635.2 -5999.5 169635.7
1998Q1 129759.8 11356.6 52854.5 118785.9 97937.4 -7619.9 193970.9 207199.5 -19202.5 187997.0
1998Q2 153432.9 14085.8 51796.7 126364.8 103320.3 -28001.3 219315.4 214358.6 -23950.6 190408.0
1998Q3 184281.3 13477.8 61578.5 165645.1 127498.2 -34246.6 259337.6 263237.9 -25945.9 237292.0
1998Q4 195985.6 15495.7 55134.1 95449.0 84302.2 -19714.4 266615.4 258047.8 -17722.9 240324.9
1999Q1 205203.2 16188.9 56325.6 93446.2 74244.5 -15867.8 277717.7 281051.6 -17839.5 263212.1
1999Q2 203409.9 22504.5 56295.4 95436.5 79013.7 -18920.7 282209.8 279711.9 -20178.2 259533.7
1999Q3 198634.2 16829.6 57535.5 102166.3 75163.8 -22418.6 272999.3 277583.2 -20768.8 256814.4
1999Q4 203960.6 17108.3 67202.9 99511.1 73232.1 -33455.5 288271.8 281095.3 -20110.2 260985.1
2000Q1 208676.2 20210.7 72027.3 109647.8 75970.9 -32170.1 300914.2 302421.0 -20683.9 281737.1
2000Q2 212194.8 24556.8 76502.4 116888.4 88426.3 -25132.1 313254.0 316584.0 -22689.1 293894.9
2000Q3 217617.8 21950.8 80824.0 135685.3 105860.7 -16478.2 320392.6 333739.0 -22872.5 310866.5
2000Q4 229508.3 24061.4 84561.5 135297.4 125949.6 -9538.8 338131.2 337940.2 -23010.9 314929.3
2001Q1 234933.5 23771.2 88040.8 154217.0 140070.9 -12510.3 346745.5 348381.3 -17586.8 330794.5
2001Q2 242250.3 26427.8 90331.4 174098.0 140574.4 -27563.2 359009.5 364969.9 -18697.6 346272.3
2001Q3 257291.1 28519.7 89004.1 147479.9 103748.4 -30463.8 374814.9 388082.6 -13656.4 374426.2
2001Q4 259125.4 29118.2 94444.6 139905.3 102374.3 -30000.0 382688.3 390219.3 -13789.4 376429.9
2002Q1 269453.6 30493.7 96749.5 136785.0 111940.1 -30000.0 396696.8 391541.6 -13681.2 377860.4
2002Q2 277746.8 32656.0 107395.5 154704.1 131783.3 -30000.0 417798.3 410719.0 -13625.9 397093.1
2002Q3 295426.5 31712.4 100027.4 161961.5 116906.9 -30000.0 427166.3 442220.9 -13618.9 428602.0
2002Q4 297064.4 32224.2 107687.5 152088.2 115240.6 -30000.0 436976.1 443823.7 -13608.4 430215.3

68
 TI TISD DPR DPRSD NI GDPDOL GDPPC RSAV TRDB XGB
1985Q1 527.4 #N/A 1187.0 0.0 21310.5 21807.83 540.30 #N/A 956 4361
1985Q2 933.2 589.0 1258.5 0.0 21848.6 22631.45 557.73 28.58 1446 4622
1985Q3 762.9 345.8 1271.7 -0.1 22421.2 22736.48 557.35 29.43 1784 4618
1985Q4 1373.0 883.1 1203.0 0.0 20368.6 21427.11 522.46 33.74 1636 4926
1986Q1 1451.5 888.7 1333.1 0.5 22800.3 23648.54 574.08 35.13 1194 4446
1986Q2 1236.9 610.2 1287.3 0.1 22352.0 22849.47 552.23 27.49 -23 3211
1986Q3 2215.8 1561.7 1351.7 0.0 22606.2 21935.49 527.80 17.86 217 3269
1986Q4 1624.5 921.7 1400.2 0.0 23581.2 17032.72 408.02 25.06 660 3470
1987Q1 2417.5 1666.1 1512.6 0.0 24891.4 18454.98 440.13 30.41 982 3747
1987Q2 1596.2 878.9 1654.5 -0.1 28345.3 20141.88 478.24 32.44 856 4124
1987Q3 1033.5 289.3 1699.9 0.0 29630.0 20681.55 488.88 27.05 1265 4468
1987Q4 2082.6 1228.4 1610.0 0.0 27045.1 19522.07 459.43 22.03 1571 4867
1988Q1 1854.1 889.8 1758.8 0.3 29824.6 21189.60 496.47 32.75 1699 4884
1988Q2 2043.5 953.5 1939.4 0.1 33057.3 23204.85 541.29 31.31 1305 4737
1988Q3 2412.1 1223.5 1937.2 0.4 32790.1 22834.06 530.28 22.50 1481 4938
1988Q4 2723.0 1446.0 1848.2 -0.6 30559.2 21559.21 498.46 20.83 1193 4950
1989Q1 1461.2 95.8 2173.5 25.8 37313.8 24642.42 567.23 38.60 1534 5199
1989Q2 3676.1 2257.8 2400.1 125.5 37404.4 25785.24 590.91 27.62 1571 5519
1989Q3 3929.9 2428.0 2434.8 93.5 38413.1 26301.39 600.08 26.68 1536 5793
1989Q4 3377.3 1726.1 1970.7 -244.7 36952.8 24718.38 561.47 30.63 1579 5748
1990Q1 1630.5 -170.0 2470.8 0.0 43113.2 27276.43 616.83 35.04 1326 6055
1990Q2 3443.0 1894.6 2525.0 0.0 42669.5 27553.41 620.34 25.28 923 5596
1990Q3 3915.1 2264.8 2714.5 0.0 45057.9 29281.32 656.33 20.90 101 6654
1990Q4 4431.5 2038.3 2833.0 0.0 46446.8 30255.35 675.16 28.42 2179 8502
1991Q1 3507.1 371.0 3022.4 0.0 51199.3 31545.80 701.05 32.18 1089 7391
1991Q2 4038.3 -973.5 3006.2 0.0 50558.1 30946.56 684.88 29.91 825 6987
1991Q3 3556.9 -2240.1 3228.8 0.0 54957.1 32924.57 725.64 26.57 1374 7524
1991Q4 4046.4 -1221.7 3241.0 0.0 54694.0 32722.69 718.20 24.15 1513 7733
1992Q1 4650.0 -89.1 3348.0 0.0 56101.4 33370.34 729.39 36.53 1199 7470
1992Q2 4110.4 808.6 3449.5 0.0 58740.3 34073.21 741.67 34.34 1345 7891
1992Q3 4187.4 1398.0 3648.9 0.0 61544.3 35861.59 777.36 26.57 1849 8776
1992Q4 5063.5 2066.4 3673.4 0.0 61335.5 35778.71 772.36 23.61 2629 9659
1993Q1 5303.9 2099.2 3885.8 0.0 65133.7 37601.52 808.34 38.69 2163 8977
1993Q2 4580.0 1079.1 4060.9 0.1 69568.7 39104.54 837.17 38.74 2250 8906
1993Q3 5184.0 1516.3 4268.5 0.0 72729.1 40679.79 867.29 27.62 2241 9380
1993Q4 6103.2 2233.5 4273.6 0.0 72131.9 40584.04 861.67 19.48 1577 9344
1994Q1 6335.9 2264.2 4399.0 0.1 74889.9 41329.73 873.87 32.43 1309 8874
1994Q2 4900.7 503.7 4649.4 0.0 81121.8 43197.58 909.58 33.54 2075 9555
1994Q3 5886.8 1286.2 4990.5 0.0 86178.3 45963.06 963.81 22.22 2462 10760
1994Q4 6775.5 2106.2 5072.1 0.0 86771.4 46317.65 967.22 19.70 2055 11034
1995Q1 6456.4 1718.4 5327.2 0.0 91401.8 48220.94 1002.80 22.93 1447 10812
1995Q2 6311.9 1571.3 5583.4 0.0 96607.6 50033.65 1036.19 25.15 1418 11998
1995Q3 6773.9 1968.2 5856.0 0.0 101236.8 51782.00 1067.95 25.92 1414 12082
1995Q4 7944.3 3042.2 5959.1 0.0 101689.7 52015.13 1068.32 23.90 2254 12562
1996Q1 6934.7 1936.1 6126.5 0.0 106111.3 52856.13 1081.56 19.36 1166 11112
1996Q2 6784.2 1841.2 6442.3 0.0 112299.2 54966.34 1120.56 23.98 910 12528
1996Q3 6755.4 1722.3 6847.0 0.0 119465.5 58264.07 1183.38 26.51 1343 12816
1996Q4 8444.6 3118.9 7212.7 0.0 124873.4 61212.42 1238.64 25.82 2529 13732
1997Q1 9938.1 4319.9 7147.4 0.0 122166.3 59480.59 1199.12 22.00 1437 12962
1997Q2 7499.5 1674.6 7444.0 0.0 129461.8 61085.45 1226.90 23.63 3482 14737
1997Q3 9724.5 3639.8 7902.2 0.0 136231.5 56619.62 1132.98 24.17 2176 14364
1997Q4 10666.6 4112.9 8781.8 0.0 150187.3 43846.32 874.12 22.86 2979 14234
1998Q1 -8347.9 -15370.5 10360.0 0.0 185984.9 21964.55 436.26 26.35 4821 12827
1998Q2 10500.1 2787.3 10717.9 0.0 169190.0 20491.61 405.49 2.78 4971 13193
1998Q3 -1399.8 -9580.0 13161.9 0.0 225529.9 21485.13 423.57 13.58 5100 13466
1998Q4 5728.1 -2564.6 12902.4 0.0 221694.4 32630.12 640.90 6.25 3537 10885
1999Q1 -6601.9 -15007.2 14052.6 0.0 255761.4 32026.12 626.70 15.47 4039 10810
1999Q2 12131.6 3962.7 13985.6 0.0 233416.5 35311.81 688.43 7.63 4457 12403
1999Q3 822.2 -7402.4 13879.2 0.0 242113.0 36858.60 715.92 13.09 6343 14270
1999Q4 11598.2 3317.8 14054.8 0.0 235332.1 39080.80 756.26 7.89 5803 13759
2000Q1 -25366.3 -33702.4 15121.1 0.1 291982.4 40917.86 788.87 24.86 6264 15113
2000Q2 16578.2 20300.9 15829.2 0.0 261487.5 38202.81 733.79 12.92 5744 15737
2000Q3 5576.7 7668.8 16687.0 0.1 288602.8 38308.54 733.08 19.22 6168 17829
2000Q4 -34608.9 -34147.4 16897.0 0.0 332641.2 36347.93 692.98 26.45 6865 16728
2001Q1 12145.8 6096.9 17419.1 0.0 301229.6 35622.90 676.80 15.80 5682 14907
2001Q2 10166.4 2516.8 18248.5 0.0 317857.4 32465.72 614.68 17.66 4816 14441
2001Q3 10411.7 3157.0 19404.1 0.0 344610.4 40743.58 768.73 19.69 5409 16131
2001Q4 10060.0 3200.0 19511.0 0.0 346859.0 38256.80 719.30 19.53 6204 15454
2002Q1 8283.8 3200.0 19577.1 0.0 349999.6 41653.37 780.45 17.03 5183 14112
2002Q2 7754.8 3200.0 20536.0 0.0 368802.4 45635.45 852.09 19.02 4621 14096
2002Q3 7225.9 3200.0 22111.0 0.0 399265.1 50252.38 935.04 20.76 5355 16144
2002Q4 6696.9 3200.0 22191.2 0.0 401327.2 50434.51 935.18 20.64 6172 15679

69
 XNOGB XOGB MGB INVB XSB MSB INVOTHB CURB CURBGDP COFTB
1985Q1 1509 2852 3405 -1795 135 1289 -641 -839 -3.85 529
1985Q2 1550 3072 3176 -1940 242 1178 -1004 -494 -2.18 327
1985Q3 1408 3210 2834 -1933 273 1350 -856 -149 -0.66 254
1985Q4 1511 3415 3290 -2104 194 1318 -980 -468 -2.18 629
1986Q1 1706 2740 3252 -1915 157 1157 -915 -721 -3.05 578
1986Q2 1520 1691 3234 -1579 172 989 -762 -1602 -7.01 716
1986Q3 1651 1618 3052 -1588 238 1158 -668 -1371 -6.25 1563
1986Q4 1779 1691 2810 -1493 277 952 -818 -833 -4.89 385
1987Q1 1751 1996 2765 -1655 265 1072 -848 -673 -3.65 847
1987Q2 1976 2148 3268 -1695 230 1035 -890 -839 -4.17 531
1987Q3 2245 2223 3203 -1849 282 1163 -968 -584 -2.82 491
1987Q4 2633 2234 3296 -1744 288 1170 -862 -173 -0.89 235
1988Q1 2648 2236 3185 -1810 258 1053 -1015 -111 -0.52 269
1988Q2 2754 1983 3432 -1802 297 1078 -1021 -497 -2.14 191
1988Q3 3090 1848 3457 -1737 351 1177 -911 -256 -1.12 505
1988Q4 3185 1765 3757 -1881 463 1298 -1046 -688 -3.19 1000
1989Q1 3155 2044 3665 -1952 436 1271 -1117 -418 -1.70 1129
1989Q2 3254 2265 3948 -1993 472 1368 -1097 -422 -1.64 374
1989Q3 3557 2236 4257 -1890 478 1398 -970 -354 -1.35 427
1989Q4 3564 2184 4169 -1876 489 1402 -963 -297 -1.20 1383
1990Q1 3588 2467 4729 -2063 465 1367 -1161 -737 -2.70 183
1990Q2 3525 2071 4673 -1805 637 1477 -965 -882 -3.20 333
1990Q3 3720 2934 6553 -2216 679 1532 -1363 -2115 -7.22 -425
1990Q4 4043 4459 6323 -2508 707 1680 -1535 -329 -1.09 542
1991Q1 4092 3299 6302 -2327 548 1485 -1390 -1238 -3.92 474
1991Q2 4310 2677 6162 -2165 709 1605 -1269 -1340 -4.33 447
1991Q3 4807 2717 6150 -2308 769 1671 -1406 -934 -2.84 -310
1991Q4 4971 2762 6220 -2393 796 1803 -1386 -880 -2.69 808
1992Q1 4920 2550 6271 -2397 607 1636 -1368 -1198 -3.59 473
1992Q2 5369 2522 6546 -2391 848 2142 -1097 -1046 -3.07 144
1992Q3 6098 2678 6927 -2700 965 2114 -1551 -851 -2.37 -246
1992Q4 6913 2746 7030 -2656 971 2208 -1419 -27 -0.08 741
1993Q1 6443 2534 6814 -2800 871 2115 -1556 -637 -1.69 276
1993Q2 6514 2392 6656 -2545 983 2152 -1376 -295 -0.75 139
1993Q3 6971 2409 7139 -2623 1071 2835 -859 -382 -0.94 -280
1993Q4 7066 2278 7767 -2561 1034 2744 -851 -984 -2.42 608
1994Q1 6619 2255 7565 -2588 1005 2627 -966 -1279 -3.09 596
1994Q2 7294 2261 7480 -2658 1131 2778 -1012 -583 -1.35 153
1994Q3 8157 2603 8298 -2621 1344 2933 -1032 -159 -0.35 -88
1994Q4 8222 2812 8979 -2994 1317 3078 -1232 -939 -2.03 -354
1995Q1 8043 2769 9365 -3254 1283 3173 -1364 -1807 -3.75 394
1995Q2 9382 2616 10580 -3398 1265 3414 -1249 -1980 -3.96 360
1995Q3 9628 2454 10668 -3183 1439 3385 -1237 -1769 -3.42 -184
1995Q4 9916 2646 10308 -3458 1482 3568 -1372 -1204 -2.31 -234
1996Q1 8212 2900 9946 -3200 1512 3481 -1231 -2034 -3.85 -151
1996Q2 9771 2757 11618 -3498 1651 3941 -1208 -2588 -4.71 -434
1996Q3 9965 2851 11473 -3469 1739 3807 -1401 -2126 -3.65 7
1996Q4 10073 3659 11203 -3582 1697 3910 -1369 -1053 -1.72 56
1997Q1 9458 3504 11525 -3739 1563 4001 -1301 -2302 -3.87 -449
1997Q2 11980 2757 11255 -4584 1729 4695 -1618 -1102 -1.80 362
1997Q3 11782 2582 12188 -3571 1982 4202 -1351 -1395 -2.46 -191
1997Q4 11356 2878 11255 -3181 1667 3709 -1139 -202 -0.46 3158
1998Q1 10806 2021 8006 -3821 1047 3048 -1820 1000 4.55 870
1998Q2 11477 1716 8222 -4301 1008 3506 -1803 670 3.27 2233
1998Q3 11632 1834 8366 -3417 1244 3066 -1595 1683 7.83 3291
1998Q4 9036 1849 7348 -2793 1180 2341 -1632 744 2.28 3577
1999Q1 8923 1887 6771 -2527 1152 2075 -1604 1512 4.72 3461
1999Q2 10304 2099 7946 -3607 1124 2810 -1921 850 2.41 1216
1999Q3 11366 2904 7927 -4457 1201 3158 -2500 1886 5.12 579
1999Q4 10395 3364 7956 -4269 1102 3510 -1861 1534 3.93 97
2000Q1 11319 3794 8849 -4367 1134 3528 -1973 1898 4.64 1285
2000Q2 12474 3264 9993 -4391 1236 3709 -1918 1354 3.54 813
2000Q3 13887 3942 11662 -3925 1437 3964 -1398 2242 5.85 601
2000Q4 12661 4067 9863 -4367 1406 3810 -1963 2498 6.87 518
2001Q1 11127 3780 9225 -4105 1263 4133 -1235 1577 4.43 -87
2001Q2 11183 3258 9625 -4870 1223 4094 -2000 -54 -0.17 0
2001Q3 12208 3923 10722 -5093 1447 4540 -2000 316 0.78 0
2001Q4 11445 4009 9250 -4921 1275 4196 -2000 1283 3.35 500
2002Q1 10335 3777 8929 -4789 1141 3930 -2000 394 0.95 1000
2002Q2 10828 3268 9475 -4831 1184 4015 -2000 -210 -0.46 500
2002Q3 12199 3945 10789 -5099 1454 4553 -2000 256 0.51 500
2002Q4 11633 4046 9507 -4960 1313 4273 -2000 1212 2.40 500

70
 COFINFB COFDRB CPRTB CPFDIB CPOTHB CAPB TOTB ACPFDIB ACPOTHB ACOFTB
1985Q1 #N/A #N/A 7 51 -44 536 -303 646 68334 37341
1985Q2 #N/A #N/A 51 103 -52 378 -116 749 68282 37668
1985Q3 #N/A #N/A -158 65 -223 96 -53 814 68059 37922
1985Q4 #N/A #N/A 168 91 77 797 329 905 68136 38551
1986Q1 #N/A #N/A 511 41 470 1089 368 946 68606 39129
1986Q2 #N/A #N/A 407 126 281 1123 -479 1072 68887 39845
1986Q3 #N/A #N/A 164 47 117 1727 356 1119 69004 41408
1986Q4 #N/A #N/A 220 44 176 605 -228 1163 69180 41793
1987Q1 #N/A #N/A 452 35 417 1299 626 1198 69597 42640
1987Q2 #N/A #N/A 122 16 106 653 -186 1214 69703 43171
1987Q3 #N/A #N/A 398 47 351 889 305 1261 70054 43662
1987Q4 #N/A #N/A 576 287 289 811 638 1548 70343 43897
1988Q1 #N/A #N/A 613 194 419 882 771 1742 70762 44166
1988Q2 #N/A #N/A -63 84 -147 128 -369 1826 70615 44357
1988Q3 #N/A #N/A -92 122 -214 413 157 1948 70401 44862
1988Q4 #N/A #N/A -51 176 -227 949 261 2124 70174 45862
1989Q1 2235 1106 -5 203 -208 1124 706 2327 69966 46991
1989Q2 1071 697 -148 79 -227 226 -196 2406 69739 47365
1989Q3 1560 1133 122 229 -107 549 195 2635 69632 47792
1989Q4 2178 795 250 220 30 1633 1336 2855 69662 49175
1990Q1 1232 1049 256 243 13 439 -298 3098 69675 49358
1990Q2 975 642 1151 228 923 1484 602 3326 70598 49691
1990Q3 738 1163 1642 227 1415 1217 -898 3553 72013 49266
1990Q4 1591 1049 1064 394 670 1606 1277 3947 72683 49808
1991Q1 1702 1228 1999 575 1424 2473 1235 4522 74107 50282
1991Q2 1223 776 503 251 252 950 -390 4773 74359 50729
1991Q3 895 1205 705 150 555 395 -539 4923 74914 50419
1991Q4 1818 1010 1203 506 697 2011 1131 5429 75611 51227
1992Q1 1664 1191 1722 624 1098 2195 997 6053 76709 51700
1992Q2 1227 1083 1867 517 1350 2011 965 6570 78059 51844
1992Q3 1074 1320 1445 354 1091 1199 348 6924 79150 51598
1992Q4 1855 1114 325 282 43 1066 1039 7206 79193 52339
1993Q1 1599 1323 647 552 95 923 286 7758 79288 52615
1993Q2 1123 984 1352 616 736 1491 1196 8374 80024 52754
1993Q3 1119 1399 1648 478 1170 1368 986 8852 81194 52474
1993Q4 2164 1556 1572 357 1215 2180 1196 9209 82409 53082
1994Q1 1789 1193 76 520 -444 672 -607 9729 81965 53678
1994Q2 1167 1014 -32 305 -337 121 -462 10034 81628 53831
1994Q3 1227 1315 1768 525 1243 1680 1521 10559 82871 53743
1994Q4 1514 1868 1889 758 1131 1535 596 11317 84002 53389
1995Q1 1743 1349 1020 978 42 1414 -393 12295 84044 53783
1995Q2 1405 1045 2075 764 1311 2435 455 13059 85355 54143
1995Q3 1205 1389 2849 1344 1505 2665 896 14403 86860 53959
1995Q4 1432 1666 4309 1260 3049 4075 2871 15663 89909 53725
1996Q1 1688 1839 2440 1990 450 2289 255 17653 90359 53574
1996Q2 1103 1537 2427 1024 1403 1993 -595 18677 91762 53140
1996Q3 1409 1402 2832 1640 1192 2839 713 20317 92954 53147
1996Q4 1493 1437 3812 1540 2272 3868 2815 21857 95226 53203
1997Q1 1293 1742 4417 2342 2075 3968 1666 24199 97301 52754
1997Q2 1084 722 1864 1267 597 2226 1124 25466 97898 53116
1997Q3 1143 1334 1981 1392 589 1790 395 26858 98487 52925
1997Q4 4074 916 -8600 -324 -8276 -5442 -5644 26534 90211 56083
1998Q1 1993 1123 -7073 -502 -6571 -6203 -5203 26032 83640 56953
1998Q2 2913 680 -1038 367 -1405 1195 1865 26399 82235 59186
1998Q3 4422 1131 -3690 -144 -3546 -399 1284 26255 78689 62477
1998Q4 4408 831 -2045 -77 -1968 1532 2276 26178 76721 66054
1999Q1 4567 1106 -2872 -232 -2640 589 2010 25946 74081 69515
1999Q2 2067 851 -2043 -890 -1153 -827 23 25056 72928 70731
1999Q3 1670 1091 -2661 -698 -1963 -2082 -197 24358 70965 71310
1999Q4 1119 1022 -2346 -925 -1421 -2249 -715 23433 69544 71407
2000Q1 2402 1116 -1951 -1474 -477 -666 1232 21959 69067 72692
2000Q2 1710 897 -2812 -448 -2364 -1999 -645 21511 66703 73505
2000Q3 1838 1237 -2751 -943 -1808 -2150 92 20568 64895 74106
2000Q4 1540 1022 -2476 -1686 -790 -1958 540 18882 64105 74624
2001Q1 1447 1534 -2841 -1238 -1603 -2928 -1351 17644 62502 74537
2001Q2 1500 1500 -3679 -1458 -2222 -3679 -3734 16186 60280 74538
2001Q3 2000 2000 -1958 -1326 -632 -1958 -1641 14861 59649 74538
2001Q4 2500 2000 -2628 -1399 -1229 -2128 -845 13462 58419 75038
2002Q1 3000 2000 -1851 -1355 -496 -851 -457 12107 57923 76038
2002Q2 2500 2000 -1455 -1310 -145 -955 -1165 10797 57778 76538
2002Q3 2500 2000 -848 -1103 255 -348 -92 9694 58033 77038
2002Q4 2500 2000 -927 -1128 201 -427 785 8566 58234 77538

71
 MDW MDUS MDJA MDOTH GDPUS GDPJA GTR GRR GROG GRNOG
1985Q1 464.34 87.52 32.34 344.48 5629.7 358781.9 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
1985Q2 488.75 92.22 32.28 364.25 5673.8 363433.8 5794.1 5111.0 3262.6 1848.4
1985Q3 480.52 88.68 31.56 360.28 5758.6 366400.9 5735.5 4912.5 2945.0 1967.5
1985Q4 539.66 93.21 34.31 412.14 5806.0 370527.9 5677.0 4714.0 2627.5 2086.5
1986Q1 516.24 90.14 33.73 392.37 5858.9 371472.4 5618.4 4515.5 2309.9 2205.6
1986Q2 534.96 95.68 31.70 407.58 5883.3 374992.6 5287.9 3967.1 1629.0 2338.1
1986Q3 522.81 96.76 30.52 395.53 5937.9 377535.1 5232.2 3784.7 1369.3 2415.3
1986Q4 569.86 99.72 31.60 438.54 5969.5 379843.8 5535.0 4058.0 1569.7 2488.3
1987Q1 570.90 97.22 32.38 441.30 6013.3 385486.9 5837.8 4331.2 1770.0 2561.2
1987Q2 616.14 105.38 36.50 474.26 6077.2 387726.6 6235.1 4880.9 2357.2 2523.7
1987Q3 613.49 108.00 38.42 467.07 6128.1 394448.6 6542.6 5170.6 2596.9 2573.7
1987Q4 712.52 113.84 43.73 554.95 6234.4 404032.7 6908.6 5307.4 2563.3 2744.1
1988Q1 681.92 110.29 44.44 527.19 6275.9 409290.9 7274.7 5444.1 2529.7 2914.5
1988Q2 723.32 114.34 47.11 561.87 6349.8 414255.7 7732.7 5393.5 2327.3 3066.2
1988Q3 691.47 114.39 46.97 530.11 6382.3 423130.0 8103.1 5525.7 2296.0 3229.7
1988Q4 778.30 120.55 48.86 608.89 6465.2 426670.6 8420.8 5870.2 2399.9 3470.3
1989Q1 747.23 117.54 50.67 579.02 6543.8 433986.9 8738.4 6214.6 2503.8 3710.8
1989Q2 785.60 124.44 50.62 610.54 6579.4 433503.0 8805.5 6452.1 2463.6 3988.5
1989Q3 750.56 123.72 53.06 573.78 6610.6 443722.8 9114.3 6791.0 2561.8 4229.2
1989Q4 828.79 127.23 55.36 646.20 6633.5 451819.8 9787.8 7429.3 2929.5 4499.8
1990Q1 830.17 125.14 53.66 651.37 6716.3 451412.7 10461.3 8067.6 3297.2 4770.5
1990Q2 848.88 126.29 54.04 668.55 6731.7 464529.9 11686.6 8816.8 4239.5 4577.3
1990Q3 859.56 129.83 57.61 672.12 6719.4 470014.9 12393.5 9463.2 4664.8 4798.4
1990Q4 990.34 135.73 70.05 784.56 6664.2 470701.9 12588.1 10243.1 4490.8 5752.2
1991Q1 914.82 120.70 61.66 732.46 6631.4 474664.4 12782.7 11022.9 4316.9 6706.1
1991Q2 893.71 124.13 56.22 713.36 6668.5 478993.3 12657.5 12695.8 3877.5 8818.3
1991Q3 871.49 129.22 57.18 685.09 6684.9 478599.1 12847.4 13534.7 3714.7 9820.0
1991Q4 963.04 134.32 61.93 766.79 6720.9 480778.1 13299.8 13295.4 3730.8 9564.6
1992Q1 930.63 127.55 57.07 746.01 6783.3 484133.6 13752.3 13056.1 3746.9 9309.2
1992Q2 961.40 136.11 57.42 767.87 6846.8 482120.1 14328.7 12055.5 3957.5 8097.9
1992Q3 980.30 142.89 59.32 778.09 6899.7 481783.2 14785.1 11830.4 3974.4 7855.9
1992Q4 1005.25 147.38 59.43 798.44 6990.6 482596.4 15210.8 12269.2 3791.2 8478.0
1993Q1 904.96 140.08 58.13 706.75 6988.7 486713.5 15636.4 12708.0 3607.9 9100.1
1993Q2 972.17 150.10 60.86 761.21 7031.2 484970.8 15967.6 13226.5 3207.4 10019.1
1993Q3 937.11 153.15 61.83 722.13 7062.0 484599.8 16390.7 13668.0 3035.8 10632.2
1993Q4 1004.08 160.11 60.81 783.16 7168.7 484486.3 16966.1 14295.5 3098.5 11197.0
1994Q1 967.93 153.63 61.66 752.64 7229.4 488563.6 17541.6 14923.0 3161.3 11761.7
1994Q2 1064.36 168.13 66.03 830.20 7330.2 487358.5 18358.1 15819.3 3222.6 12596.7
1994Q3 1093.96 179.75 71.87 842.34 7370.2 491877.2 18941.2 16457.6 3285.4 13172.3
1994Q4 1211.42 187.70 75.69 948.03 7461.1 492857.9 19299.3 16866.2 3438.1 13428.1
1995Q1 1216.49 183.74 78.57 954.18 7488.7 491437.3 19657.4 17274.8 3590.9 13683.9
1995Q2 1322.38 193.73 87.10 1041.55 7503.3 494706.8 19452.3 17289.9 3715.7 13574.2
1995Q3 1282.86 196.32 83.03 1003.51 7561.4 499528.1 19800.3 17689.4 3867.3 13822.1
1995Q4 1364.94 197.07 87.19 1080.68 7621.9 505715.3 20856.9 18574.7 4113.1 14461.6
1996Q1 1320.92 192.20 84.48 1044.24 7676.4 510621.5 21913.4 19460.0 4358.9 15101.0
1996Q2 1349.09 202.36 87.75 1058.98 7802.9 514548.0 22870.8 20141.8 4407.3 15734.5
1996Q3 1337.70 210.89 87.48 1039.33 7841.9 512579.8 23922.8 21018.2 4642.5 16375.7
1996Q4 1430.53 216.59 89.45 1124.49 7931.3 520134.5 25553.1 22496.1 5243.2 17252.8
1997Q1 1343.67 209.36 87.62 1046.69 8016.4 534946.4 27183.4 23973.9 5843.9 18130.0
1997Q2 1414.88 221.55 84.84 1108.49 8131.9 518117.6 26816.6 24929.4 6691.9 18237.5
1997Q3 1390.02 232.14 85.00 1072.88 8216.6 520391.2 28333.9 26376.9 7315.6 19061.3
1997Q4 1472.39 235.96 81.29 1155.14 8272.9 523999.4 33281.5 29115.5 7955.7 21159.8
1998Q1 1356.59 224.58 75.07 1056.94 8396.3 521049.1 38229.1 31854.2 8595.8 23258.4
1998Q2 1392.45 234.41 66.93 1091.11 8442.9 521688.7 48223.5 35665.4 9166.6 26498.8
1998Q3 1350.30 238.77 67.39 1044.14 8528.5 515946.9 53749.5 38489.0 9801.9 28687.1
1998Q4 1441.70 246.59 71.09 1124.02 8667.9 516623.9 55635.5 41079.9 10695.8 30384.1
1999Q1 1344.35 237.27 71.71 1035.37 8733.5 519072.4 57521.5 43670.8 11589.7 32081.1
1999Q2 1405.31 257.21 71.57 1076.53 8771.2 527033.2 58543.4 46515.3 12710.5 33804.8
1999Q3 1438.18 276.15 78.57 1083.46 8871.5 526639.2 60402.0 49120.4 13620.7 35499.8
1999Q4 1575.14 288.80 89.41 1196.93 9049.9 518878.4 62260.5 51725.6 14530.8 37194.7
2000Q1 1551.80 291.53 89.17 1171.10 9102.5 531437.2 64119.1 54330.7 15441.0 38889.7
2000Q2 1624.27 309.70 91.94 1222.63 9229.4 532103.1 63004.5 62390.5 23785.2 38605.3
2000Q3 1644.29 327.14 95.65 1221.50 9260.1 528440.6 64715.4 64645.0 23395.3 41249.7
2000Q4 1766.22 329.27 102.75 1334.20 9303.9 531864.3 66426.2 66899.6 23005.5 43894.1
2001Q1 1610.76 306.14 93.47 1211.15 9334.5 532502.3 69466.2 68746.3 20949.5 47796.8
2001Q2 1604.64 299.46 87.97 1217.21 9341.7 528622.5 71192.5 71035.6 20549.8 50485.8
2001Q3 1590.58 281.78 85.49 1223.30 9333.4 522864.8 72180.0 72086.6 19498.9 52587.7
2001Q4 1579.68 264.77 85.49 1229.42 9255.4 522864.8 73167.5 73137.7 18448.0 54689.7
2002Q1 1587.73 267.27 84.89 1235.57 9368.9 521446.5 73990.6 73898.1 17373.0 56525.1
2002Q2 1591.07 264.43 84.89 1241.75 9382.5 521446.5 74975.9 74945.1 16323.6 58621.5
2002Q3 1595.88 263.03 84.89 1247.96 9396.0 521446.5 75961.2 75992.0 15274.1 60717.9
2002Q4 1602.07 262.98 84.89 1254.20 9414.5 521446.5 76946.5 77039.0 14224.7 62814.3

72
 INCTAX VAETAX IMPTAX OTHTAX NONTAX GDR GTE GRE GDE INDTAX
1985Q1 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
1985Q2 582.2 529.6 120.9 300.9 314.8 683.1 5793.6 2829.9 2963.6 951.4
1985Q3 579.6 564.4 141.5 328.5 353.6 823.0 5735.0 2935.0 2800.0 1034.3
1985Q4 576.9 599.1 162.0 356.0 392.4 963.0 5676.5 3040.0 2636.5 1117.2
1986Q1 574.3 633.9 182.6 383.6 431.2 1102.9 5617.9 3145.1 2472.9 1200.1
1986Q2 551.9 676.1 224.0 373.8 512.3 1320.8 5287.4 3141.8 2145.6 1274.0
1986Q3 549.3 711.3 246.7 353.4 554.6 1447.5 5231.7 3238.1 1993.6 1311.4
1986Q4 573.0 741.3 245.3 383.7 544.9 1477.1 5534.5 3472.4 2062.1 1370.3
1987Q1 596.7 771.3 243.9 414.0 535.2 1506.6 5837.3 3706.7 2130.6 1429.3
1987Q2 593.0 776.0 224.2 403.2 527.3 1354.2 6234.7 4040.9 2193.8 1403.4
1987Q3 615.7 805.1 222.9 412.5 517.6 1372.0 6542.2 4280.0 2262.2 1440.4
1987Q4 690.0 871.3 237.9 454.9 489.9 1601.3 6908.1 4480.4 2427.7 1564.2
1988Q1 764.3 937.5 253.0 497.4 462.2 1830.6 7274.0 4680.7 2593.3 1688.0
1988Q2 861.5 1016.0 269.0 530.4 389.4 2339.1 7731.5 4870.9 2860.6 1815.4
1988Q3 937.8 1083.0 284.1 560.3 364.6 2577.4 8101.8 5069.6 3032.2 1927.4
1988Q4 1029.2 1163.0 307.7 577.2 393.2 2550.6 8419.5 5289.4 3130.1 2047.9
1989Q1 1120.6 1243.1 331.2 594.1 421.8 2523.8 8737.2 5509.1 3228.1 2168.4
1989Q2 1243.8 1325.7 341.1 588.3 489.6 2353.3 8804.3 5661.6 3142.7 2255.1
1989Q3 1337.5 1405.9 363.8 601.2 520.8 2323.4 9113.2 5877.9 3235.3 2370.9
1989Q4 1414.7 1503.8 415.3 641.9 524.1 2358.6 9786.9 6223.1 3563.8 2561.0
1990Q1 1491.9 1601.7 466.8 682.6 527.5 2393.7 10460.6 6568.4 3892.2 2751.1
1990Q2 1503.2 1715.0 561.7 292.6 504.8 2869.9 11705.3 7268.3 4437.0 2569.3
1990Q3 1577.1 1813.8 617.5 282.0 508.0 2930.3 12413.5 7631.2 4782.3 2713.3
1990Q4 1750.6 1916.0 641.4 907.5 536.7 2345.0 12581.6 7576.6 5005.0 3464.9
1991Q1 1924.1 2018.3 665.3 1532.9 565.4 1759.8 12749.6 7522.0 5227.7 4216.6
1991Q2 2170.8 2136.0 683.7 3238.8 589.1 -38.3 12527.1 7100.5 5426.6 6058.5
1991Q3 2350.3 2239.0 707.4 3905.7 617.5 -687.4 12690.1 7041.8 5648.3 6852.2
1991Q4 2518.7 2336.7 729.1 3312.1 668.0 4.4 13200.3 7317.5 5882.8 6377.8
1992Q1 2687.2 2434.3 750.8 2718.4 718.4 696.2 13710.5 7593.3 6117.2 5903.5
1992Q2 2897.7 2470.6 774.1 1269.0 686.5 2273.2 14362.9 7886.9 6476.0 4513.8
1992Q3 3068.6 2566.0 795.8 694.0 731.5 2954.8 14878.2 8163.2 6715.0 4055.8
1992Q4 3206.1 2757.1 816.3 780.7 917.8 2941.6 15382.7 8572.7 6810.0 4354.1
1993Q1 3343.6 2948.3 836.8 867.3 1104.2 2928.4 15887.2 8982.2 6905.0 4652.4
1993Q2 3408.5 3219.2 857.4 1030.0 1504.0 2741.1 16517.5 9585.9 6931.6 5106.6
1993Q3 3543.1 3415.3 877.9 1074.8 1721.1 2722.7 17025.9 10000.3 7025.6 5368.0
1993Q4 3783.5 3574.6 899.2 1126.0 1813.7 2670.6 17400.2 10234.7 7165.5 5599.8
1994Q1 4023.9 3733.9 920.5 1177.2 1906.2 2618.6 17774.5 10469.1 7305.4 5831.6
1994Q2 4400.5 3924.4 1000.9 1224.3 2046.6 2538.8 18201.2 10545.0 7656.2 6149.5
1994Q3 4648.6 4085.0 1023.5 1273.8 2141.3 2483.5 18576.5 10776.5 7800.0 6382.4
1994Q4 4787.8 4206.9 966.4 1336.2 2130.8 2433.1 18853.3 11174.7 7678.6 6509.5
1995Q1 4927.0 4328.7 909.2 1398.7 2120.3 2382.6 19130.0 11572.8 7557.2 6636.6
1995Q2 4881.6 4453.4 819.8 1428.1 1991.3 2162.4 18735.7 11775.0 6960.6 6701.4
1995Q3 5015.8 4575.4 764.8 1484.9 1981.3 2110.9 19002.8 12155.9 6847.0 6825.0
1995Q4 5376.8 4688.5 736.4 1566.0 2093.9 2282.2 20160.1 12886.7 7273.5 6990.9
1996Q1 5737.8 4801.7 708.0 1647.0 2206.5 2453.5 21317.4 13617.4 7700.0 7156.7
1996Q2 6160.7 4786.4 646.1 1720.6 2420.6 2729.0 22438.9 13899.8 8539.1 7153.1
1996Q3 6525.5 4896.6 619.1 1796.4 2538.1 2904.6 23594.3 14607.1 8987.2 7312.1
1996Q4 6967.1 5188.2 644.3 1875.8 2577.5 3057.0 25358.0 16220.4 9137.6 7708.3
1997Q1 7408.7 5479.8 669.5 1955.2 2616.8 3209.4 27121.7 17833.7 9288.1 8104.5
1997Q2 7621.1 5927.5 767.7 1677.8 2243.5 1887.2 27066.0 18788.2 8277.7 8372.9
1997Q3 8049.8 6227.0 795.6 1712.2 2276.7 1957.0 28718.6 20308.9 8409.7 8734.8
1997Q4 8922.3 6423.8 743.8 2223.7 2846.2 4165.9 33634.3 23607.2 10027.1 9391.4
1998Q1 9794.8 6620.7 692.0 2735.3 3415.6 6374.9 38550.1 26905.6 11644.5 10048.0
1998Q2 11363.3 6740.0 524.0 3635.9 4235.6 12558.1 48403.6 33306.0 15097.6 10899.9
1998Q3 12292.7 6934.6 481.6 4137.3 4840.8 15260.5 53877.7 36938.8 16938.9 11553.5
1998Q4 12644.6 7215.3 564.7 4181.7 5777.8 14555.6 55727.5 38137.0 17590.5 11961.7
1999Q1 12996.4 7496.0 647.7 4226.1 6714.8 13850.8 57577.2 39335.2 18242.0 12369.9
1999Q2 13212.8 7822.0 800.5 3887.0 8082.4 12028.0 58563.7 39948.8 18614.9 12509.5
1999Q3 13561.1 8104.3 891.5 3870.7 9072.1 11281.5 60386.6 41129.8 19256.8 12866.5
1999Q4 13909.4 8386.7 982.5 3854.3 10061.9 10535.0 62209.4 42310.7 19898.7 13223.5
2000Q1 14257.7 8669.0 1073.5 3838.0 11051.6 9788.5 64032.3 43491.7 20540.6 13580.5
2000Q2 17817.3 13094.5 1848.7 1462.4 4382.4 614.1 71434.4 62729.5 8704.9 16405.6
2000Q3 19205.1 13381.3 2038.7 2396.4 4228.2 70.3 74635.7 65993.8 8641.9 17816.4
2000Q4 20593.0 13668.1 2228.6 3330.5 4073.9 -473.4 77837.0 69258.1 8578.9 19227.2
2001Q1 22218.9 12416.5 2365.7 5248.4 5547.3 719.9 82433.1 71333.3 11099.8 20030.6
2001Q2 23657.3 12692.1 2563.4 6179.9 5393.1 156.9 85732.3 74693.5 11038.8 21435.4
2001Q3 24250.5 13680.0 2677.5 6728.9 5250.8 93.4 85964.2 74510.3 11453.9 23086.4
2001Q4 24843.8 14667.9 2791.6 7277.9 5108.5 29.8 86196.1 74327.2 11868.9 24737.4
2002Q1 25241.2 16009.6 2891.9 7405.6 4976.8 92.5 85657.3 73213.3 12444.0 26307.1
2002Q2 25829.9 17019.8 3005.5 7932.1 4834.2 30.8 85887.2 73022.7 12864.5 27957.4
2002Q3 26418.7 18030.1 3119.0 8458.6 4691.5 -30.8 86117.1 72832.1 13285.0 29607.7
2002Q4 27007.4 19040.3 3232.6 8985.1 4548.9 -92.5 86347.0 72641.5 13705.5 31258.0

73
 SB NINDTAX GBAL GBALGDP PCP PCG PI PX PM PGDP
1985Q1 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 53.79 49.54 58.65 55.13 40.89 52.41
1985Q2 607.3 344.2 0.5 0.00 55.42 52.96 61.07 55.27 45.73 54.55
1985Q3 617.3 417.1 0.5 0.00 55.69 53.60 61.36 54.72 36.67 54.83
1985Q4 627.2 489.9 0.5 0.00 55.83 53.82 59.96 53.65 37.35 55.50
1986Q1 637.2 562.8 0.5 0.00 59.08 51.56 60.11 46.88 36.81 56.68
1986Q2 647.3 626.7 0.5 0.00 59.69 51.86 60.24 37.53 39.80 53.02
1986Q3 657.3 654.1 0.5 0.00 60.55 52.70 61.34 36.98 33.18 53.38
1986Q4 667.6 702.8 0.5 0.00 63.26 56.28 68.31 54.35 56.48 58.36
1987Q1 677.9 751.4 0.5 0.00 65.02 57.34 69.19 55.75 49.61 60.25
1987Q2 686.0 717.3 0.4 0.00 66.46 55.89 70.95 57.40 47.57 62.05
1987Q3 696.3 744.2 0.4 0.00 67.66 53.93 70.70 57.71 56.83 63.73
1987Q4 710.0 854.2 0.5 0.00 69.93 52.05 73.41 58.49 58.43 64.30
1988Q1 723.7 964.3 0.7 0.00 71.03 57.18 71.49 70.17 70.96 67.02
1988Q2 725.3 1090.0 1.2 0.00 72.23 54.75 72.62 70.86 72.07 68.39
1988Q3 738.8 1188.6 1.3 0.00 73.63 54.09 74.26 66.51 72.81 68.23
1988Q4 770.9 1277.0 1.3 0.00 74.26 54.92 75.33 58.63 73.93 66.70
1989Q1 803.0 1365.4 1.2 0.00 74.60 60.54 76.96 69.78 75.39 72.10
1989Q2 836.8 1418.3 1.2 0.00 76.48 63.18 79.64 75.34 78.95 76.26
1989Q3 868.9 1501.9 1.1 0.00 76.91 60.58 80.41 73.50 80.33 75.75
1989Q4 909.7 1651.2 0.9 0.00 74.77 62.35 81.02 74.13 81.50 73.27
1990Q1 950.6 1800.5 0.8 0.00 76.76 70.30 82.47 86.57 82.87 77.14
1990Q2 1020.9 1548.4 -18.7 -0.04 78.53 70.01 84.77 79.28 83.08 76.82
1990Q3 1062.9 1650.3 -20.0 -0.04 81.56 67.99 86.54 92.79 84.78 80.04
1990Q4 1071.7 2393.2 6.5 0.01 83.04 71.13 88.89 95.93 87.86 86.33
1991Q1 1080.5 3136.1 33.1 0.05 83.35 70.65 82.94 88.02 86.31 85.53
1991Q2 1046.7 5011.8 130.4 0.22 85.25 70.96 84.28 83.96 87.48 85.06
1991Q3 1055.1 5797.0 157.2 0.24 88.31 75.81 89.96 89.99 87.69 87.82
1991Q4 1109.8 5268.1 99.5 0.15 90.29 78.41 86.84 94.32 88.49 90.18
1992Q1 1164.4 4739.1 41.8 0.06 89.86 79.47 97.76 92.74 93.84 89.47
1992Q2 1212.0 3301.8 -34.2 -0.05 91.04 83.51 85.90 95.13 93.87 91.28
1992Q3 1266.3 2789.4 -93.1 -0.13 91.84 83.79 88.50 97.02 94.18 91.93
1992Q4 1357.0 2997.1 -171.9 -0.23 92.74 86.23 87.32 95.86 94.46 94.59
1993Q1 1447.7 3204.7 -250.7 -0.32 97.41 93.61 98.33 96.45 99.15 98.04
1993Q2 1605.6 3500.9 -549.9 -0.68 99.35 105.98 99.28 102.97 100.00 99.83
1993Q3 1700.3 3667.7 -635.1 -0.74 100.53 100.40 100.48 100.48 100.34 100.62
1993Q4 1730.1 3869.7 -434.0 -0.51 101.87 100.55 101.57 100.18 100.43 101.38
1994Q1 1760.0 4071.7 -232.9 -0.26 106.17 93.55 101.46 102.23 101.82 102.77
1994Q2 1752.5 4397.0 156.9 0.17 107.95 104.45 102.43 103.13 101.90 105.80
1994Q3 1781.7 4600.6 364.6 0.37 110.55 103.47 104.41 106.45 102.92 109.51
1994Q4 1840.2 4669.3 446.0 0.44 112.79 106.28 117.70 105.51 104.36 112.71
1995Q1 1898.6 4738.0 527.4 0.50 115.66 110.95 110.74 114.05 106.61 115.10
1995Q2 1960.8 4740.6 716.6 0.64 119.03 119.96 112.92 117.29 109.34 118.37
1995Q3 2019.3 4805.7 797.5 0.68 120.60 113.17 115.08 111.41 111.56 119.15
1995Q4 2088.7 4902.1 696.8 0.58 122.47 117.57 120.53 115.37 113.11 120.88
1996Q1 2158.1 4998.6 596.1 0.49 126.88 125.05 115.68 119.39 112.49 125.19
1996Q2 2210.1 4943.0 431.9 0.34 128.12 132.08 118.07 120.84 114.39 128.03
1996Q3 2279.0 5033.1 328.5 0.24 129.32 126.22 120.88 122.71 116.75 128.51
1996Q4 2382.6 5325.7 195.0 0.14 132.40 125.99 133.75 126.07 118.40 132.68
1997Q1 2486.3 5618.2 61.6 0.04 135.18 126.06 119.96 134.74 118.66 135.61
1997Q2 2548.0 5824.9 -249.4 -0.17 137.82 145.54 125.20 126.18 121.16 138.72
1997Q3 2650.0 6084.7 -384.7 -0.24 142.45 137.05 128.21 136.65 124.62 143.59
1997Q4 2837.7 6553.7 -352.9 -0.20 151.44 134.87 135.42 172.75 137.76 157.81
1998Q1 3025.3 7022.6 -321.0 -0.15 187.56 159.61 207.91 301.94 250.98 204.98
1998Q2 3187.2 7712.8 -180.0 -0.08 224.02 212.76 234.98 358.29 286.17 237.11
1998Q3 3373.3 8180.2 -128.3 -0.05 288.80 216.73 269.14 425.55 362.54 279.65
1998Q4 3668.9 8292.7 -92.0 -0.04 295.03 225.43 279.51 450.81 381.35 285.35
1999Q1 3964.6 8405.3 -55.7 -0.02 308.75 236.64 303.41 421.58 392.96 299.08
1999Q2 4340.7 8168.9 -20.3 -0.01 304.72 308.37 311.80 431.46 384.83 298.05
1999Q3 4641.9 8224.6 15.4 0.01 296.18 271.73 315.23 424.97 378.74 291.80
1999Q4 4943.1 8280.4 51.1 0.02 302.32 256.04 334.84 418.15 379.93 295.57
2000Q1 5244.3 8336.1 86.8 0.03 301.33 287.21 341.53 429.63 382.86 306.76
2000Q2 20128.3 -3722.7 -8429.8 -2.66 302.88 335.37 348.75 436.18 414.45 321.51
2000Q3 19908.5 -2092.1 -9920.3 -2.97 306.97 317.23 356.30 494.83 443.98 331.52
2000Q4 19688.7 -461.5 -11410.9 -3.38 319.85 321.29 363.32 497.84 453.05 338.12
2001Q1 13981.7 6048.9 -12966.9 -3.72 320.45 318.81 369.66 510.34 481.51 342.75
2001Q2 13785.8 7649.6 -14539.8 -3.98 329.92 346.31 384.50 553.28 510.62 358.74
2001Q3 15831.6 7254.8 -13784.2 -3.55 338.80 368.44 410.00 504.69 442.67 372.57
2001Q4 17877.4 6860.0 -13028.6 -3.34 344.84 373.31 414.39 514.16 449.31 378.27
2002Q1 21223.3 5083.8 -11666.7 -2.98 351.74 388.46 427.95 456.16 443.72 373.53
2002Q2 23402.6 4554.8 -10911.3 -2.66 359.83 413.37 449.98 475.53 452.88 389.72
2002Q3 25581.8 4025.9 -10155.9 -2.30 369.18 398.90 437.22 527.42 444.50 408.49
2002Q4 27761.1 3496.9 -9400.5 -2.12 374.81 402.80 440.68 531.63 445.11 413.20

74
 WPI WPID WPIX WPIM WPISD CPI INFLAT POIL PXW PMW
1985Q1 57.81 57.12 57.60 59.07 -0.10 40.81 #N/A 27.78 66.70 77.89
1985Q2 59.14 58.92 56.92 61.17 -0.12 42.04 #N/A 27.03 68.54 79.45
1985Q3 59.82 59.44 58.01 61.75 -0.11 42.25 #N/A 27.29 70.37 80.78
1985Q4 60.06 60.08 58.13 61.44 -0.06 42.36 #N/A 28.35 73.70 83.71
1986Q1 58.68 61.11 50.33 61.86 -0.27 43.18 5.81 17.78 74.53 83.66
1986Q2 55.15 61.35 36.17 61.68 -0.65 43.60 3.71 12.81 74.57 80.54
1986Q3 56.22 63.13 36.57 62.90 -0.85 44.22 4.66 12.42 75.91 80.24
1986Q4 66.20 69.79 50.58 76.39 -1.58 46.18 9.02 14.72 78.13 83.04
1987Q1 69.72 71.34 57.79 79.52 -1.44 46.96 8.75 17.91 81.22 85.67
1987Q2 71.47 73.46 60.47 79.96 -1.35 47.78 9.59 18.68 83.34 88.17
1987Q3 72.81 75.51 61.07 80.97 -1.37 48.64 10.00 19.10 83.40 88.63
1987Q4 74.36 77.96 61.81 81.92 -1.36 50.27 8.86 18.06 88.19 92.91
1988Q1 75.57 78.54 63.25 81.58 -0.60 51.04 8.69 15.83 88.17 92.23
1988Q2 76.54 79.51 63.86 82.86 -0.62 51.91 8.64 16.21 91.17 93.20
1988Q3 76.46 81.02 59.95 83.71 -0.76 52.91 8.78 14.43 86.80 90.46
1988Q4 75.60 82.30 52.84 85.01 -1.02 53.37 6.17 13.43 89.48 92.61
1989Q1 79.56 83.92 63.48 86.72 -0.74 54.28 6.35 17.46 90.04 94.64
1989Q2 82.76 85.39 68.55 90.81 -0.74 55.64 7.19 18.63 91.37 94.15
1989Q3 83.36 86.63 66.87 92.40 -0.85 56.01 5.86 17.54 88.88 93.47
1989Q4 84.26 87.42 67.44 93.74 -0.88 56.71 6.26 19.36 91.08 95.29
1990Q1 86.60 90.01 71.85 95.42 -1.22 57.61 6.13 19.85 94.42 98.03
1990Q2 85.82 91.55 65.80 95.66 -1.38 58.94 5.93 15.96 94.39 96.95
1990Q3 90.05 93.26 77.01 97.62 -1.08 61.22 9.30 26.50 98.04 101.77
1990Q4 100.40 95.32 109.40 101.17 -0.14 62.33 9.91 32.54 102.70 108.98
1991Q1 94.82 97.44 82.89 101.00 -0.60 63.03 9.41 20.75 99.76 104.50
1991Q2 92.98 99.02 71.35 102.38 -0.99 64.47 9.38 18.79 92.85 96.91
1991Q3 95.45 101.51 76.47 102.62 -0.82 66.79 9.10 19.88 92.62 96.49
1991Q4 98.03 103.53 82.00 103.56 -0.67 68.30 9.58 20.51 96.26 99.57
1992Q1 98.23 105.81 76.79 105.54 -0.96 69.20 9.79 18.21 96.31 98.78
1992Q2 99.32 107.05 78.77 105.58 -0.85 70.39 9.18 20.12 96.82 99.21
1992Q3 101.52 108.33 84.79 105.93 -0.67 71.00 6.30 20.14 101.46 103.05
1992Q4 101.65 109.09 83.43 106.24 -0.67 71.71 4.99 19.19 95.94 98.08
1993Q1 102.50 112.49 80.32 106.82 -0.76 75.57 9.21 18.19 90.01 91.34
1993Q2 104.28 114.32 83.01 107.75 -0.69 77.07 9.49 18.24 90.96 92.03
1993Q3 104.59 116.49 80.10 108.11 -0.77 77.98 9.83 16.49 88.75 89.38
1993Q4 104.54 118.42 76.44 108.22 -0.85 79.03 10.21 15.07 87.82 88.60
1994Q1 105.36 121.77 73.97 108.26 -0.91 81.55 7.91 13.95 87.88 88.37
1994Q2 107.56 124.24 77.88 108.68 -0.79 82.92 7.59 16.05 89.67 89.87
1994Q3 111.53 128.71 84.52 109.76 -0.59 84.92 8.90 16.77 92.93 93.10
1994Q4 113.98 133.69 83.78 111.30 -0.62 86.47 9.41 16.54 94.24 94.07
1995Q1 118.69 139.27 90.25 113.31 -0.44 89.02 9.16 16.90 97.77 97.91
1995Q2 122.27 143.95 92.75 116.24 -0.43 91.61 10.48 18.14 101.36 101.41
1995Q3 122.71 145.96 88.10 118.70 -0.66 92.82 9.30 16.20 100.34 100.35
1995Q4 124.77 147.65 91.25 120.38 -0.62 94.27 9.02 16.99 100.53 100.33
1996Q1 128.82 151.56 98.88 121.65 -0.39 97.85 9.92 18.63 99.48 100.23
1996Q2 130.64 153.69 100.16 123.47 -0.40 98.78 7.83 19.48 97.72 98.26
1996Q3 131.99 154.92 102.09 124.53 -0.38 99.60 7.30 20.54 98.13 98.18
1996Q4 135.09 155.89 112.39 124.66 -0.05 100.63 6.75 23.16 97.67 98.25
1997Q1 131.78 137.39 130.06 119.26 2.40 102.91 5.17 21.17 94.54 96.48
1997Q2 131.90 138.56 126.67 120.46 2.37 104.53 5.82 18.05 92.32 93.52
1997Q3 137.86 141.35 139.40 127.32 1.87 106.48 6.91 18.52 90.62 91.72
1997Q4 160.30 150.11 194.03 150.40 0.21 110.28 9.59 18.72 90.49 91.71
1998Q1 241.10 182.94 376.26 245.69 -7.36 132.34 28.60 14.08 87.12 88.60
1998Q2 278.82 212.90 437.66 277.97 -7.49 156.45 49.67 13.28 86.34 87.11
1998Q3 333.67 261.86 506.17 333.33 -8.25 187.76 76.33 12.43 85.74 86.10
1998Q4 299.60 284.63 348.70 285.48 0.26 196.73 78.39 11.09 87.48 87.35
1999Q1 313.13 298.42 369.60 290.50 1.48 206.14 55.77 11.09 94.67 93.43
1999Q2 313.51 302.95 361.32 289.52 2.14 204.72 30.85 15.33 92.79 91.89
1999Q3 312.16 300.33 363.32 287.80 2.06 200.22 6.64 20.33 95.27 93.83
1999Q4 315.65 304.53 368.55 287.62 2.65 200.08 1.70 24.05 96.73 95.18
2000Q1 328.81 312.11 399.74 295.80 2.71 204.91 -0.60 26.77 95.86 95.66
2000Q2 345.41 318.11 444.49 309.52 1.88 206.98 1.10 26.54 94.76 94.36
2000Q3 362.76 324.17 490.53 325.15 0.82 211.59 5.68 30.34 94.95 95.27
2000Q4 374.22 332.43 511.06 335.07 0.67 217.62 8.77 29.58 93.54 94.67
2001Q1 384.67 348.33 511.67 342.67 1.58 224.06 9.35 25.82 94.80 95.31
2001Q2 413.33 373.75 563.33 365.00 0.00 230.05 11.15 27.24 95.00 95.00
2001Q3 421.09 360.84 611.63 371.73 0.00 237.24 12.12 25.25 95.00 95.00
2001Q4 425.92 365.96 618.81 374.69 0.00 241.53 10.99 24.00 96.00 96.00
2002Q1 421.82 381.88 574.50 372.20 0.00 246.43 9.98 23.00 97.00 97.00
2002Q2 437.70 408.04 589.39 376.28 0.00 252.18 9.62 22.00 97.50 97.50
2002Q3 438.82 392.85 628.83 372.55 0.00 258.84 9.10 22.00 98.00 98.00
2002Q4 441.37 396.95 632.01 372.82 0.00 262.85 8.83 21.00 98.50 98.50

75
 M1 QM M2 RITD RLND RSBI LIBOR NEXA INEXA POP
1985Q1 8988 10459 19447 19.00 #N/A 15.97 8.97 1088.60 52.16 161449.8
1985Q2 9494 10969 20463 19.00 #N/A 16.00 8.19 1112.20 53.29 162310.9
1985Q3 9393 12200 21594 16.83 #N/A 14.17 8.08 1118.70 53.60 163176.7
1985Q4 10124 13054 23177 17.17 #N/A 14.00 8.08 1122.90 53.80 164047.0
1986Q1 10475 13693 24168 16.23 21.80 14.00 7.84 1127.00 54.00 164775.5
1986Q2 10355 13994 24350 15.33 21.60 14.00 6.92 1126.70 53.98 165507.2
1986Q3 11192 16188 27380 15.46 21.40 14.00 6.22 1232.40 59.05 166242.1
1986Q4 11631 15984 27615 15.39 21.17 14.00 6.08 1644.10 78.77 166980.4
1987Q1 11500 16991 28491 15.33 21.10 14.00 6.31 1639.20 78.54 167721.9
1987Q2 12167 17466 29633 15.94 21.20 16.80 7.09 1642.90 78.72 168466.7
1987Q3 11972 19673 31645 17.43 22.13 15.20 7.16 1643.90 78.76 169214.8
1987Q4 12705 21200 33904 18.44 22.23 13.83 7.89 1649.40 79.03 169966.2
1988Q1 12626 23034 35660 18.01 22.00 15.03 6.91 1659.80 79.53 170720.9
1988Q2 13051 24850 37901 18.19 22.00 15.43 7.41 1671.50 80.09 171479.0
1988Q3 13145 26925 40069 15.83 22.13 15.33 8.34 1696.40 81.28 172240.5
1988Q4 14392 27681 42072 18.85 22.26 15.77 8.96 1715.10 82.18 173005.4
1989Q1 14409 33158 47567 19.17 22.32 17.00 9.80 1743.10 83.52 173773.6
1989Q2 16494 31106 47600 18.90 21.40 15.40 9.73 1764.30 84.53 174545.3
1989Q3 17164 38247 55412 18.48 21.77 14.70 8.89 1780.40 85.30 175320.4
1989Q4 20558 37967 58526 17.96 21.30 13.53 8.58 1792.50 85.88 176098.9
1990Q1 22155 42212 64367 16.52 20.57 13.13 8.37 1811.70 86.80 176880.9
1990Q2 23205 55272 78477 15.97 19.73 16.94 8.43 1832.80 87.82 177666.4
1990Q3 22982 53925 76907 17.37 20.40 17.63 8.14 1854.10 88.84 178455.3
1990Q4 23819 60810 84630 20.26 22.60 18.83 8.06 1872.70 89.73 179247.8
1991Q1 23571 57554 81125 22.55 25.53 23.55 6.84 1916.22 91.81 179993.0
1991Q2 24609 63147 87756 25.32 27.00 18.99 6.14 1942.83 93.09 180741.2
1991Q3 25804 67522 93327 23.53 24.67 18.50 5.81 1961.35 93.97 181492.6
1991Q4 26693 72717 99410 21.87 24.93 18.47 5.01 1980.87 94.91 182247.1
1992Q1 27336 73567 100903 21.44 24.83 17.99 4.19 2006.56 96.14 183004.8
1992Q2 26881 80077 106958 20.68 24.63 16.00 3.98 2024.74 97.01 183765.6
1992Q3 27650 85861 113512 18.93 24.00 14.66 3.35 2035.01 97.50 184529.5
1992Q4 27485 91570 119055 17.36 22.67 13.50 3.56 2053.38 98.38 185296.7
1993Q1 27892 93663 121555 16.07 21.76 12.50 3.22 2066.85 99.03 186067.0
1993Q2 27694 94278 121972 15.32 21.38 10.74 3.20 2076.92 99.51 186840.5
1993Q3 31333 102582 133915 14.38 20.17 9.11 3.20 2098.60 100.55 187617.2
1993Q4 33739 109402 143141 12.42 19.03 8.82 3.36 2106.04 100.91 188397.2
1994Q1 34887 111895 146782 11.61 18.26 8.45 3.51 2128.71 101.99 189180.4
1994Q2 36247 113857 150104 11.69 17.55 9.94 4.41 2152.63 103.14 189966.9
1994Q3 38430 121829 160259 12.93 17.57 11.55 4.90 2171.52 104.04 190756.6
1994Q4 41462 130280 171742 13.89 17.66 12.44 5.89 2190.15 104.94 191549.6
1995Q1 40649 137812 178461 15.32 18.24 14.13 6.24 2209.48 105.86 192345.9
1995Q2 42083 146325 188408 16.74 18.79 14.74 6.06 2231.86 106.94 193145.6
1995Q3 43846 158310 202156 17.54 19.11 14.02 5.81 2261.79 108.37 193948.5
1995Q4 47135 171257 218392 17.27 19.27 13.99 5.76 2291.31 109.78 194754.8
1996Q1 47695 180687 228382 17.24 19.30 13.99 5.34 2318.17 111.07 195481.1
1996Q2 49682 194331 244013 17.37 19.24 13.99 5.44 2344.08 112.31 196210.0
1996Q3 52188 201396 253584 17.29 19.17 13.96 5.51 2350.33 112.61 196941.7
1996Q4 51652 226097 277749 17.13 19.16 12.80 5.48 2356.60 112.91 197676.1
1997Q1 57947 232451 290398 16.66 18.98 11.07 5.50 2403.27 115.15 198413.3
1997Q2 62003 244686 306689 16.08 18.72 10.50 5.73 2437.23 116.78 199153.2
1997Q3 58081 264689 322770 21.26 23.38 22.00 5.65 2791.32 133.74 199895.8
1997Q4 68785 279073 347858 26.05 26.19 20.00 5.77 4005.70 191.93 200641.3
1998Q1 89045 354069 443114 24.71 26.33 27.75 5.61 9433.36 451.98 201389.5
1998Q2 96334 460236 556570 34.33 32.16 58.00 5.62 10460.80 501.21 202140.5
1998Q3 88291 451877 540168 44.91 34.93 68.76 5.55 12252.10 587.04 202894.3
1998Q4 87301 481350 568651 52.32 35.20 38.44 5.22 7908.27 378.91 203650.9
1999Q1 92478 502587 595065 39.52 34.11 37.84 4.93 8775.70 420.47 204410.3
1999Q2 93874 514113 607987 30.89 30.34 22.05 4.99 7921.20 379.53 205172.6
1999Q3 104214 539121 643335 19.46 24.52 13.02 5.40 7531.03 360.84 205937.7
1999Q4 114562 525227 639789 13.08 21.68 12.51 6.10 7192.67 344.62 206705.6
2000Q1 121782 534417 656199 12.63 19.58 11.03 6.06 7390.93 354.12 207476.4
2000Q2 131009 553436 684445 11.89 18.46 11.74 6.59 8286.93 397.05 208250.1
2000Q3 138959 551076 690035 12.33 17.98 13.62 6.66 8711.87 417.41 209026.7
2000Q4 156785 585039 741824 13.17 17.80 14.53 6.62 9297.37 445.47 209806.2
2001Q1 147804 618641 766445 14.35 17.85 15.82 5.29 9779.70 468.58 210536.7
2001Q2 159286 636533 795819 14.95 18.26 16.65 4.13 11241.70 538.63 211269.7
2001Q3 166751 703487 870238 14.39 18.03 15.80 3.90 9525.00 456.37 212005.3
2001Q4 188142 700675 888817 12.54 17.08 15.00 3.80 10200.00 488.72 212743.5
2002Q1 177365 703235 880600 12.25 17.13 14.00 3.70 9400.00 450.39 213484.2
2002Q2 191143 761153 952296 12.03 16.93 14.00 3.70 9000.00 431.22 214227.5
2002Q3 200101 864017 1064118 12.38 17.03 14.00 3.70 8800.00 421.64 214973.4
2002Q4 225770 862200 1087971 11.23 16.33 14.00 3.70 8800.00 421.64 215721.9
NOTE: Figures after double-lines are of projections.
Source: Author’s estimation.

76
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