Estimating Populations

Introduction

With a world so vast, it would be seen as a difficult task to capture the entire population in a
given setting. It would take extensive amounts of time to come up with an answer to many
questions left lingering, so with being consciously aware of the gross amount of time this would
take, we rely on creating statistics. With that being said, most if not all of our gathered
information will be presented in the form of an average from that statistic. According to Oxford
Dictionary, a statistic is defined as The practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical
data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those
in a representative sample. We are able to use statistics in order for us to define a larger
population, based on information gathered and articulated into a small portion of that said
population.
The simulation of Capture/Recapture is a great example of how an environmental scientist
would create an average for a given population. This allows us to gather an idea, or a rough
estimate of a population, and based of that estimate, they may be able to come to some
conclusion of what influences the fluctuation of a population. The experiment of this simulation
in the animal kingdom, can also guide us in how we view the human population as well.
Referring to the World Health Organization, public health officials need to know the size and
composition of target populations. Incidence and prevalence estimates provide the foundation for
the design and evaluation of essential health programmes. Compulsory reporting to registers is
the broadest approach to obtaining these estimates, but it is expensive and the goal of complete
enumeration is rarely achieved. Similar methods that are used in finding an average for a
captured population, can also be used beneficially for the general public. Fore without a way for
us to obtain a generalized idea of how our population is influenced, we would have no methods
of correcting an action or result, had it gone awry.

Objectives
1. View and simulate a capture/recapture model used in the field.
2. Determine how to calculate estimated populations with a given formula.
3. Find an average of how often the same animal within a species lives in a given area

Hypothesis
I believe within the given simulation, the student will have a better understanding in the use of
statistics within experiments found in Environmental Science.
Results

Table 1
Simulation of Capture/Recapture of Paper Bugs
This table shows the results of three simulations: each simulation had three trials in which the
student would capture, mark, release, and recapture paper bugs. The results were recording as
the following, including an average:

N1 (Day 1 capture) N2 (Day 2 capture) R (Recaptured) Average

Run 1 76 57 23 188.35
Run 2 34 48 15 108.8
Run 3 52 40 17 122.35

Discussion
I was not expecting the mathematical calculations to equal out to the total population of 200. I
felt that this was unrealistic, since there was a small probability that the student would be able to
capture enough paper bugs in three separate trials. The capture of these paper bugs were at
random, with eyes closed. It is obvious that we would only capture a small fraction of the paper
bugs, but never the full amount. I believe if we were able to capture the full amount in each trial
run, there would be no way to calculate the average of capture/recapture population.
In a real life situation, I feel that actual animals would be hyperaware of the situation. It can be
certain that a specific species is to roam in a given area where the calculated population
experiment would be taken place, and the observer would have a higher rate of capture on the
first day than the second day. The reasons I say this, is that the animals would become aware of a
humans presence (or any presence other than their own kind, for that matter), therefore, may
decrease the chances of capture/recapture process on the second day. The animals may see the
humans as a threat, rather than they innocent data collecting the human seeks in their
environment. I feel that this would have a heavy influence on results, of course this would all be
dependent on the kind of species that would be in involved with the capture/recapture
experiment.
I feel that mathematical equations are necessary, because with all experiments, all results will
end as a statistic. In this case of the capture/recapture simulation, the averages are merely rough
estimates and a small part of what the population is. Im also taking a class on Statistics along
with this Environmental Science class, and it has become noticeably clear as to how Statistics
comes into play with a Biology major- we can only attempt to guess a number that can represent
a population as a whole; this can be applied to both a human population, and an animal
population. Even if we did the same experiment constantly over an X amount of time, we
would never get the same result, and this is where calculating an average would come in. All of
these rough estimates can only give us a better understanding of how and where the population
itself stands, and it can only be taken as a small insight, never an exact answer.
Given in a real life situation, there would be no way for the observer to know the exact total of a
given population of a species in an area. I believe this is where the mathematical aspects of
experiments would chime in, as we would gather all plausible information, and create an average
from the amounts that we have gathered. I believe the only time the observer may have an idea
on the number of a population for a species, would be if the student had observed this given area
for extensive amounts of time.

Resources
"Definition of Statistics in English:." Statistics: Definition of Statistics in Oxford
Dictionary (American English) (US). Oxford University Press, n.d. Web. 25 Apr. 2016.
<http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/statistics>.
Laska, Eugene M. "The Use of Capture-recapture Methods in Public Health."The Use of
Capture-recapture Methods in Public Health. World Health Organization, n.d. Web. 25
Apr. 2016. <http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0042-
96862002001100002>.