ARTICLE IN PRESS

Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483

www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman

Air assimilative capacity-based environment friendly siting of

new industriesA case study of Kochi region, India
S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao
National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), Nehru Marg, Nagpur 440 020, India
Received 25 July 2005; received in revised form 19 June 2006; accepted 21 June 2006
Available online 1 September 2006

Abstract

Air pollution has become a matter of grave concern, particularly in mega-cities and urban areas, where the situation is alarming and
becoming more and more severe day-by-day and warrants, therefore, careful planning to facilitate future industrial development. Site
selection, with the objective of minimizing adverse environmental impacts based on environmental criteria is a vital prerequisite,
particularly for air polluting industries. In order to locate any air polluting industry, the assimilative capacity of the region needs to be
assessed carefully and planned accordingly, so that the receiving environment is not adversely affected. Assimilative capacity of a region/
airshed, widely represented through the ventilation coefcient by many researchers in the past, does not give a clear picture about the
amount of emission load that can be assimilated in a given region. The ventilation coefcient, at best, can only present a broad picture
about the air pollution dispersion potential (low, medium or high) of the region.
A modied approach, which utilizes air quality modelling as a tool to estimate the maximum allowable emission load that a region can
assimilate without violating the stipulated standards, has been used for estimating the assimilative capacity of the air environment.
Details of this approach have been presented in this paper through a case study carried out for the Kochi region, located in the Kerala
State of India. A variety of emission and meteorological scenarios have been considered and critical emission loads have been estimated.
This approach shall provide necessary technical guidance to the environmental regulatory authorities as well as to the industries in
planning environment friendly industrial development.
r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Industrial siting; Sustainable development; Ventilation coefcient; Air assimilative capacity; Air quality modelling

1. Introduction of the important criteria for siting of new industries.

Industrial development signicantly contributes to eco-
nomic growth of any region and hence the country.
However, industrial progress brings along with it a host
of environmental problems and many of these problems
can be minimized if industrial development planning is
done keeping in view the environmental considerations. At
present, siting of industries is being mainly planned keeping
in view the raw material availability, access to the market,
transport facilities and other related techno-economic
considerations without paying adequate attention to
environmental aspects, which are widely accepted as one
Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 712 2249877; fax: +91 712 2249895.
E-mail addresses: sk_goyal@neeri.res.in, goyalsvap@rediffmail.com
(S.K. Goyal).
Improper siting of industries can seriously affect the
quality of environmental media such as air, water and
land, and ora and fauna, human settlements and public
health. Site selection based on environmental criteria with
the objective of minimizing adverse environmental impacts
is, therefore, a vital prerequisite. This becomes especially
important when the proposed industry is air polluting in
nature.
Industries in India mainly are comprised of large,
medium and small-scale units. Large industries like iron
and steel plants, aluminum, chemicals and petro-chemicals,
pulp and paper mills, chlor-alkali plants, cement plants,
bulk drugs and pharmaceuticals, oil reneries, thermal
power plants, etc. have been established in the country.
Besides, a large number of small-scale units (3 millions)
have also come up and are contributing to industrial

0301-4797/$ - see front matter r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.06.020
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
474 S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483

production (Pandey). Most of these large-scale industries Categories 1, 2 and 3 (i.e. ventilation coefcient
are excessively air polluting in nature and air emissions o6000 m2 s1) are high pollution potential categories,
released from these industries are causing severe health and lead to wide spread occurrence of high concentration
problems. Air pollution has become a matter of grave of pollutants. Categories 4, 5 and 6 (i.e. ventilation
concern, particularly in mega-cities and urban areas, where coefcient in the range of 600012,000 m2 s1) fall under
the situation is alarming and becoming more and more the medium pollution potential category. Categories 7, 8
severe, day by day, and therefore warrants careful planning and 9 (i.e. ventilation coefcient412,000 m2 s1) fall under
to facilitate future industrial development. the low pollution potential category, and result in high
In order to locate any polluting industry, the assimilative dilution of pollutants. However, in the absence of any
capacity of the region needs to be assessed carefully and other specic criteria stipulated in India with respect to
adequate plans should be prepared so that the receiving high pollution potential, the critical value (i.e. 6000 m2 s1)
environment is least affected. was used (Agrawal, 1991). A typical classication of air
pollution potential during the winter season is shown in
1.1. Ventilation coefficient approach Fig. 1 for the whole of India. In all parts of the country, the
value of the ventilation coefcient was found to be less
The earlier approach of characterizing the assimilative than 12,000 m2 s1 during the winter season. The central
capacity of the atmosphere, based on the assessment of air part of the country was found to have better ventilation
pollution potential represented through the ventilation coefcient (10,00012,000 m2 s1) as compared to the
coefcient has been used for more than three decades. High northern (ventilation coefcient up to 6000 m2 s1) and
air pollution potential is dened as a combination of southern (ventilation coefcient up to 8000 m2 s1) parts of
meteorological conditions and emission scenarios that the country. The ventilation coefcient in the Kerala region
would lead to the widespread occurrence of high concen- was found to be in the range of 40006000 m2 s1, which is
tration of pollutants that are emitted by various sources in
the region. In other words, pollution potential simply
indicates the relative inability of the atmosphere to disperse
and dilute the pollutants that are emitted into it.
The ventilation coefcient represents the rate at which
the air within the convective boundary layer is transported
(Devara and Raj, 1993). It plays an important role in the
dispersion of air pollutants and is one of the factors that
determine the pollution (dispersal) potential over a region
of interest. The VC is given by
Ventilation coefficient Zi  U,
where Zi is the atmospheric boundary layer height
P (mixing
height), m, U the average wind velocity (U iZ i
i1 Ui ) in
1
the mixed layer, m s .
Lower values of the ventilation coefcient indicate less
dispersion potential of pollutants in the atmosphere. The
higher the coefcient, the greater is the ability of the
atmosphere to disperse the pollutants and hence less
pollution hazard or good air quality.
The ventilation coefcient is the product of two
meteorological parameters; mixing height and average
wind speed through the mixing layers. According to Stack
Pole (1967) and Gross (1970), the US National Meteor-
ological Center and Atmospheric Environment Services,
Canada has suggested that high pollution potential occurs
when the afternoon ventilation coefcient is less than
6000 m2 s1 and mean wind speed does not exceed 4 m s1.
During morning hours, the mixing height is less than
500 m, and mean wind speed does not exceed 4 m s1.
Accordingly, based on ventilation coefcient (parameter
representing atmospheric assimilative capacity), India was
divided into nine types of zones. Ventilation coefcients
were categorized in the range extending from less than 2000 Fig. 1. Classication of India based on Atmospheric Dispersion Potential
to more than 18,000 m2 s1 at intervals of 2000 m2 s1. (Ventilation Coefcient) during winter.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483
very low from the air pollution dispersion point of view
(NEERI, 1991).
Subsequently, this concept of ventilation coefcient was
adopted to represent atmospheric assimilative capacity in
several studies (NEERI, 1993, 1996a, b, 2001). Manju et al.
(2002) have also used ventilation coefcient to quantify the
assimilative capacity of Manali Industrial Zone in Tamil
Nadu State in India. Further, Krishnan and Kunhikrish-
nan (2004) have reported temporal variations in ventilation
coefcient and their possible implications for dispersion of
air pollutants using UHF wind proler observations over
an inland tropical station in Gadanki, India. Recently,
Ramakrishna et al. (2004) have reported on the assimilative
capacity and dispersion of pollutants due to industrial
sources in the Visakhapatnam bowl area situated in coastal
Andhra Pradesh in India.
1.2. Modified approach
A critical review of the literature relating to assimilative
capacity reveals that most of the authors have reported
assimilative capacity either in terms of ventilation coef-
cient or simply presented dispersion behavior of pollutants
in different seasons. However, the actual emission load that
the region/airshed can assimilate in absolute quantitative
terms has not been estimated/reported. The ventilation
coefcient does not give any idea about the amount of
emission load that can be assimilated in the region. The
ventilation coefcient can only provide a broad indication
of the dispersion potential (low, medium or high) of the
region. Therefore, an approach based on air quality
modelling, which takes into consideration region specic
Fig. 2. Map of Ernakulam district with marked impact zone.
475
meteorological conditions and emission loads from differ-
ent sources has been used to assess the assimilative capacity
of the air environment. Details of this approach have been
presented through a case study of the Kochi region in this
paper.
2. Methodology
2.1. Study area
The selected study region, Kochi (also known as
Ernakulam), is situated in the southern part of India, in
Kerala State. Ernakulam district, located in the coastal
area lies between 91450 and 101150 N and 761150 and 761500 E
and is bounded by Thrissur district on the north, Idukki
district in the east (mainly hilly terrain), Kottayam and
Alappuza districts in the south, and Lakshdweep sea on the
west (Fig. 2). It is spread over an area of 2408 km2 with a
total population of about 2.8 millions. There were about
1.0 million vehicles in Ernakulam district (as on March 31,
2002), comprising mainly 2 wheelers (65%) and four
wheelers (20%).
Ernakulam district is the most industrially developed
district of the state, and it is considered as the commercial
capital of Kerala. There are about 145 large (reneries,
chemicals and fertilizers) and medium scale (textile, dye
making, rubber and food processing, etc.) industries in the
industrial belt covering ErnakulamKalamasseryEloor
and Aluva. Besides, there are a large number (about
10,000) of small-scale industrial units in the organized
sector (industries that are classied and registered with
appropriate regulatory authorities). The district is also rich
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476 S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483
in various mineral deposits, which include magnetic iron
ores, glass sand, lime shell, clays, graphite and iron ore.
The region is also rich in agriculture and the major
products manufactured and produced are coir, rice and
rubber (NEERI, 2003).
2.2. Assimilative capacity estimation
An approach to estimation of assimilative capacity was
formulated keeping in view the very denition of assim-
ilative capacity, which is the maximum emission load that a
region can assimilate without adversely affecting the
natural quality/ecological integrity of the region. For all
practical purposes, it is dened as the maximum emission
load that the region can assimilate under critical conditions
without signicant deterioration in environmental quality.
Critical conditions include the conditions at which the
assimilative capacity is minimum, e.g. meteorological
conditions during which the wind speeds are minimum or
mixing height is low and atmosphere is highly stable, etc.
Assimilative capacity depends on a variety of environ-
mental parameters like meteorological conditions (viz.
wind speed, wind direction, temperature, mixing height,
stability class), terrain characteristics (viz. plain, hilly,
coastal, etc.), and emission characteristics (viz. distribution
of emission sources, stack characteristics, emission load,
pollutant type, etc.). Since an air mass constitutes a
dynamic system, the assimilative capacity of an air mass
also varies in relation to the changes in environmental
conditions. Hence, it is difcult to arrive at the assimilative
capacity of the region as a single representative number.
Therefore, assimilative capacity has a range depending on
the variation in meteorological conditions for a given
topographical and source conguration.
In the present study, the assimilative capacity of an air
volume of 24 km  24 km  100 m was estimated. Further,
a critical season was selected, i.e. the season during which
there is relatively less dispersion of pollutants. For different
emission loads (present and projected future), possible
occurrence of maximum pollutant concentration at any
receptor in the study area was studied with respect to
suspended particulate matter (SPM) and sulfur dioxide
(SO2). The discharged emission load at which the
maximum allowable concentration was reached under the
dened critical conditions was considered as the assim-
ilative capacity of the region.
2.2.1. Air quality modellingapproach and assumptions
Modelling on a macro-scale gives predicted concentra-
tions due to the combined effect of distributed sources of
emissions. Models help in determining the pollution load
that can be assimilated by an air mass and thus help in
formulating guidelines for delineation of management
plans. Prediction of ground level concentrations (GLCs)
of pollutants was carried out using the US EPA approved
ISCST-3 simulation model ((Users Instructions) EPA-454/
B-95-003a, 1995a, b).
The ISCST model is one of the most popular and widely
used models among the air pollution dispersion models in
the UNAMAP series. It has unique features such as the
capability to handle polar or cartesian coordinates,
simulate point, area and volume sources, consider wet
and dry deposition, account for terrain, building down-
wash considerations, etc. Hence this model was chosen for
application in this study. The ISCST3 model for contin-
uous elevated point sources uses the steady-state Gaussian
plume equation ((Description of Model Algorithms)
EPA-454/B-95-003a, 1995a, b) given by
" ( )#
Q y2
Cx; y; z; H exp  2
2pusy sz 2sy
    
z  H2 z H2
 exp  exp  ,
2s2z 2s2z
where C is the concentration of pollutant (mg m3), x, y, z
the receptor location on the cartesian coordinate system, Q
the emission rate of pollutant (g s1), u the wind velocity
at 10 m height (m s1), sy, sz the crosswind and
vertical dispersion coefcient (m) and H the effective stack
height (m).
2.2.1.1. Input data requirement. In general, the model
requires data relating to source location; source emission
characteristics; prevailing meteorological conditions and
receptor locations. The source characteristic parameters
required as inputs include: location of the sources (x, y, z),
m; stack height (m); stack diameter (m); exit velocity
(m s1); temperature of stack gas (K); and pollutant
emission rate (g s1). The model also requires hourly
meteorological data including wind direction (degrees);
wind speed (m s1); ambient air temperature (K); stability
class (16) and mixing height (m).
In the present study, the model was used to predict the
spatial distribution of pollutants (SPM and SO2) from
point sources only, as discussed in the following sections.
Simulation runs were made and concentration isopleths
were drawn for each pollutant using SURFER-32 Gra-
phics software and isopleths were overlaid over the study
region to identify the possible hotspots/critical zones in the
study area.
2.2.2. Emission scenarios and assumptions
From a pollutant emission point of view, industrial
stacks are regarded as point sources. Locations of existing
and proposed industrial pockets in the study area are
shown in Fig. 3. The following assumptions were made
during the modelling study:
 It was assumed that the maximum pollution load a
region can assimilate is the load at which the maximum
concentration at any receptor is less than the 24 hourly
average permissible/stipulated national ambient air
quality standard (NAAQS). In India, the NAAQS are
stipulated based on the land use, primarily under

S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483
24
22
P6 P5
20
18
P4
Distance in North Direction (Km)
16
14
P3
12 Ernakulam (Kalamassery)
(Met Station)
10
P9
8 norms in India, the minimum stack height should be
6
P2
P10
4 (business-as-usual scenario) is considered in this paper
P1
2
0 changed by modifying the emission loads under different
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Distance in East Direction (Km)
Existing (P1-P5) Proposed (P6-P10)
Fig. 3. Industrial sources in the selected study region.
industrial, mixed use (residential/commercial/rural) and
sensitive area (like hospitals, schools, national heritage
buildings/monuments, etc.) categories. 24 hourly
NAAQS for industrial, mixed use and sensitive areas
for SPM are 500, 200 and 100 mg m3 and for SO2, they
are 120, 80 and 30 mg m3, respectively (CPCB, 1994).
 The difference between the maximum allowable con-
centration for a given area and the present average
ambient concentration in that region gives an indication
of the amount of pollution load that the region can
assimilate.
 Based on the monitored ambient air quality data,
present average levels of SPM and SO2 were found to
be in the range of 80180 and 815 mg m3, respectively.
These were considered to be contributed by area and
line sources present in the study region. Therefore, 75%
of the maximum allowable concentration was stipulated
to estimate the amount of pollution load that the region
can assimilate in the future from the industrial sources.
Based on the above, the maximum allowable concentra-
tion in the future was estimated. However, for other
regions, it (75%) may vary depending upon the
prevailing pollution levels and the contributing sources
in the specic study region.
 Based on the maximum allowable concentration de-
rived, the allowable emission load was calculated for the
study region (24 km  24 km) assuming that the pollu-
tants disperse up to 100 m height in the atmosphere since
most of the stacks in the region were observed to be
below 30 m height and the maximum mixing height
available for dispersion is 100 m (to which height plume
rise can occur).
ARTICLE IN PRESS
477
 The above load was distributed equally in 10 industrial
complex sources, which include existing (5 complexes) as
well as proposed locations (5 complexes). All the
emissions in the industrial complex are considered to
P7 be released from a 0.5 m diameter stack of 30 m height
with exit gas velocity of 5.0 m s1 at 373 K temperature
(assumed similar to the existing industries in the region).
This emission characteristics scenario has been taken
P8
considering the present type of industrial development
in the region, and this presents a typical representative
scenario.
 It is important to mention that, as per the regulatory
30 m. Most of the industries in the region fall under that
category; therefore a similar type of industrial growth
to assess the current status. This will serve as the
minimum emission threshold level, which can be
16 18 20 22 24
developmental scenarios.
 Further, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
data on inversion occurrences suggested that in the
Kochi region, the ground-based inversions extend
beyond 100 m. Therefore, this was considered as the
minimum mixing height available during any hour of
the day/night, to estimate emission load in the rst
iteration.
 The permissible concentration, maximum allowable
concentration, total emission load in the region and
estimated emission rate per stack is presented in Table 1
for different categories of areas, seasons and pollutant
types.
2.2.3. Meteorological scenarios and assumptions
Meteorology of a region plays a key role in dispersion
and transport of pollutants emitted by various point, area
and line sources, thereby affecting the predicted GLCs of
pollutants during different seasons. First, the long-term
meteorological data with respect to ambient air tempera-
ture recorded by the IMD at Kochi airport was analyzed
for the period 19731981 and 19841992. Monthly max-
imum, minimum and mean temperature from IMD and
mean during 1999 is presented in Fig. 4. Analysis of data
collected during 1999 indicated that monthly mean
temperature varied from 25.9 1C (in October) to 31.3 1C
in June. Annual mean temperature was 27.5 1C and the
variation in temperature was just 1.5 1C during different
months. Analysis of long-term IMD data on ambient
temperature indicated annual mean temperature of 27.8 1C
and the variation in temperature was just 1.0 1C during
different months. Further, the difference between monthly
mean maximum and minimum temperature was found to
vary from 5.4 1C in August to 9.5 1C in January. The above
analysis indicates that there is no strict seasonal variation
in Kochi city, unlike other parts of India (particularly for
non coastal regions).
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478 S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483

Table 1
Estimated emissions in the study area (24 km  24 km)

Pollutant/season Type of area Maximum Maximum allowable Estimated emission Estimated emission
permissible conc. conc. (mg m3) [75% load (kg d1) in the rate per stack (g s1)
(mg m3) [NAAQS] of NAAQS] study area

SPM
Winter/post- Industrial 500 375 21600 25.0
monsoon
Mixed use 200 150 8640 10.0
Sensitive 100 75 4320 5.0
SO2
Winter/post- Industrial 120 90 5184 6.0
monsoon
Mixed use 80 60 3456 4.0
Sensitive 30 20 1152 1.4

NAAQSNational Ambient Air Quality Standards.

40

35
Ambient Temperature, (C)

30

25

20

15
Maximum Minimum Mean (1973-1992) Mean (1999)
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Fig. 4. Monthly variation in maximum, minimum and mean ambient temperature at Kochi (based on IMD data collected during 19731981 and
19841992) and mean temperature during 1999.

In the present study, meteorological data (wind speed,
wind direction, temperature, stability class and mixing
height) required for estimation of assimilative capacity was
collected at a height of 10 m using a meteorological tower
in the study region from November 1998 to October 1999.
Winter season refers to January and post-monsoon season
refers to October. The name of the season mainly indicates
the monitoring period for meteorological parameters,
rather than the whole season. Diurnal variation in
meteorological parameters during winter (January 1999)
and post-monsoon (October 1999) is presented in Fig. 5
and briey described here.
Wind direction and wind speed: Wind direction plays an
important role in pollutant dispersal and determines the
likely location of maximum concentration occurrence.
Wind speed and wind direction presented in Fig. 5 indicate
that the region experiences mostly westerly winds during
the daytime and northeasterly during nighttime due to the
effect of land and sea breeze. Relatively more calm
conditions or light winds prevail during night hours and
strong winds during daytime. The overall frequency of
calm conditions occurrence was found to be 77% in post-
monsoon and 62% in winter.
Diurnal variation in wind speed showed that the speed
was high during daytime reaching a maximum at around
14:0016:00 h and gradually decreasing with nightfall
reaching a minimum at midnight. The frequency of calm
conditions occurrence varied from 43% at 12:00 h to 68%
at 21:00 h. A maximum calm conditions frequency of 84%
was observed at 24:00 h. Wind speed was observed to vary
from calm conditions to 2.5 m s1 during midday.
Temperature: Mean minimum and maximum tempera-
ture were recorded to be 22.3 and 32.4 1C during winter
and 23.3 and 29.7 1C during post-monsoon. Diurnal
variation in temperature showed that temperature was
minimum at around 07:00 h and gradually increased and
reached the peak at 13:0014:00 h and then started
decreasing. The pattern of variation in both the seasons
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483 479

2.0
Windspeed January

Wind speed (ms-1)

1.5 October

1.0

0.5

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the Day

360
Wind direction N-W Sector
270
Wind direction

January
S-W Sector
(deg.)

October
180
S-E Sector
90
N-E Sector
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the Day

35
Temperature January
Temperature (C)

October
30

25

20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the Day

2000
Mixing Height January
Mixing Height (m)

1500 October

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the Day

Fig. 5. Diurnal variation in meteorological parameters during winter (January) and post-monsoon (October).

was found to be similar and only a marginal difference in
temperature was observed.
Stability class: Different stability classes of atmosphere
were considered as per Pasquills (1961) classication as;
class 1 (very unstable), class 2 (moderately unstable), class
3 (slightly stable), Class 4 (Neutral), class 5 (slightly stable)
and class 6 (moderately/highly stable). In general, stability
class 6 prevailed from 19:00 to 06:00 h in the morning
hours during post-monsoon and winter. Stability gradually
changed from 06:00 h due to sunshine and rise in
temperature. Air mass reached the highly unstable class
during midday when wind speed was maximum indicating
better mixing of pollutants during daytime and poor
mixing during nighttime.
Mixing height: Mixing height is dened as the height
above the earths surface up to which released pollutants
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480 S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483

will disperse primarily through the action of atmospheric
turbulence. Mixing height is estimated from the vertical
ambient air temperature prole, i.e. the temperature lapse
rate with height (Hewson, 2006). Data on mixing height
and stability class were obtained from IMD (NEERI,
2003). In addition, mixing height was also determined
using the temperature lapse rate method during the study
for comparison with IMD observations. In this technique,
a balloon lled with helium/hydrogen gas is released into
the atmosphere. A gadget having a temperature sensor with
a transmitter (called a radio-sonde/ mini-sonde) is tied to
the balloon, keeping the receiver at the ground level. As the
balloon rises up in the air, the sensor transmits the
temperature level, which is recorded by the receiver. Thus
the vertical temperature prole is obtained (environmental
lapse rate, ELR). Under dry adiabatic lapse rate (DALR)
conditions, the decrease in temperature with height is
10 1C km1. A graph is plotted of the environmental lapse
rate against altitude (height), and the height at which the
DALR cuts the ELR line is treated as mixing height.
In the Kochi region, the mixing height varied from 100 m
at 00:00 h to 1100 m at 13:00 h during post-monsoon. In
winter, it varied from 100 m at 06:00 h to 1600 m at 15:00 h
indicating that the air mass enhances mixing of pollutants
in the air environment during midday hours.
The ventilation coefcient was found to be in the range
of 40006000 m2 s1 during the study period. The peak
value of the ventilation coefcient was observed at 15.00h.
Lower values of the ventilation coefcient indicate less
dispersion and higher buildup of air pollutants in the
region.
2.2.4. Modelling scenarios and assumptions
In order to assess the assimilative capacity of the air
environment in a given study region, it is necessary to study
the effect of various parameters like wind movement in the
region, ambient air temperature, pollution load, etc. on the
quality of the air mass. In this regard, simulated models
provide effective tools to study all the parameters that
determine the environmental assimilative capacity of air in
the region.
The study area delineated was 24 km  24 km in size with
a meteorological monitoring station located at its center.
This area was further sub-divided into smaller grids of
2 km  2 km size, wherein an industrial complex is located.
All other locations were referenced (in Cartesian form)
with respect to the bottom-left corner, which was
considered to be the origin (0,0) for modelling the study
area. The following broad assumptions were made in the
modelling exercise:
 Assimilative capacity of the air environment was related
mainly to elevated emission sources (industrial), hence
future emission growth will be mainly due to point
source emissions.
 The present meteorological scenario will be applicable in
the future also.
 Pollutant concentration was predicted for a receptor
grid size of 500 m  500 m.
3. Results and discussion
The model runs were made with respect to two
parameters (SPM and SO2) and two seasons (winter and
post-monsoon). Each run was made for industrial, mixed
and sensitive areas. Assumptions made in the modelling
exercise are described in the previous section. The results
are discussed below.
The delineated study area of size 24 km  24 km had one
meteorological station at the center and covered ve
existing industrial areas of the region, where major

Table 2
Air quality modelling results with estimated assimilative capacity

Season Type of area Estimated maximum Permissible emission Permissible Permissible emission
conc. [from model rate per stack (g s1) maximum conc. load (Assimilative
run (mg m3)] [from model run capacity) (kg d1)
(mg3m3)]

SPM
Post-monsoon Industrial 195 50.0 390 43,200
Mixed use 78 20.0 156 17,280
Sensitive 39 10.0 78 8640
Winter Industrial 137 50.0 273 43,200
Mixed use 55 20.0 109 17,280
Sensitive 27 10.0 55 8640
SO2
Post-monsoon Industrial 47 12.0 94 10,368
Mixed use 31 8.0 62 6912
Sensitive 11 2.7 21 2333
Winter Industrial 33 12.0 66 10,368
Mixed use 22 8.0 44 6912
Sensitive 7 2.7 15 2333
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S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483 481

industries are located. It also had the capacity to further found to be below the maximum allowable concentration,
support industrial growth from the resources availability the emission load was increased uniformly from all the
point of view. In the present exercise, the regions air stacks in the study region till the maximum allowable
assimilative capacity was assessed to check whether further concentration levels were reached. The total emission load
industrial growth can be supported or not, taking arrived at in the nal run was considered as the assimilative
environmental conditions (air pollution levels) into con- capacity of the study region under the above specied
sideration. conditions. Results are summarized in Table 2.
Pollutant concentration levels from the initial model GLC isopleths for SPM under different emission
runs at different emission loads were analyzed. If the scenarios (applicable for industrial, mixed use and sensitive
predicted maximum concentration in the study area was areas) during winter and post-monsoon are presented

24 24

22 22

20 20

18 18
Distance in North Direction (Km)

Distance in North Direction (Km)

16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2
MGLC - 273 g/m3 at 1.0 km, 4.0 km MGLC - 109 g/m3 at 1.0 km, 4.0 km
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(a) Distance in East Direction (Km) (b) Distance in East Direction (Km)

24

22

20

18
Distance in North Direction (Km)

16

14

12

10

2
MGLC - 55 g/m3 at 1.0 km, 4.0 km
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(c) Distance in East Direction (Km)

Fig. 6. Predicted GLC Isopleths of SPM during winter: (a) emission load: 43,200 kg d1, (b) emission load: 17,280 kg d1 and (c) emission load:
8640 kg d1.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
482 S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483

respectively through Figs. 6(ac) and 7(ac). Maximum maximum concentration isopleths were considerably less
GLC and its occurrence is also shown in the respective (by about 60%) than the value at a single receptor point. It
gures. During winter, the cumulative maximum GLC was was observed that during different seasons the distribution
found to occur at a distance of 4.1 km in the SW direction of pollutants was mostly conned to the area in and
(with respect to the meteorological station), whereas in around the individual industrial complex.
post-monsoon, maximum GLC was found to occur in the Predicted maximum GLCs of SPM and SO2 under
NW direction at a distance of 22.7 km. During winter, the different emission and meteorological scenarios indicate
cumulative maximum GLC was predicted to be 273, 109 that post-monsoon (October) season has lesser dilution/
and 55 mg m3 for respective SPM emission loads of 43,200, dispersion potential than that of winter (January); hence
17,280 and 8640 kg d1. During post-monsoon, the same the emission load was considered as critical during post-
were 390, 156 and 78 mg m3, respectively. However, the monsoon season. It can also be interpreted that the region

24 24

22 22

20 20

18 18
Distance in North Direction (Km)

Distance in North Direction (Km)

16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2
MGLC - 390 g/m3 at 5.5 km, 22 km MGLC - 156 g/m3 at 5.5 km, 22 km
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(a) Distance in East Direction (Km) (b) Distance in East Direction (Km)

24

22

20

18
Distance in North Direction (Km)

16

14

12

10

2
MGLC - 78 g/m3 at 5.5 km, 22 km
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(c) Distance in East Direction (Km)

Fig. 7. Predicted GLC Isopleths of SPM during post-monsoon: (a) emission load: 43,200 kg d1, (b) emission load: 17,280 kg d1 and (c) emission load:
8640 kg d1.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
S.K. Goyal, C.V. Chalapati Rao / Journal of Environmental Management 84 (2007) 473483
can assimilate more emission load (by about 40%) during
winter than in post-monsoon hence some of the industrial
activities may be scheduled to operate on a seasonal/
monthly basis.
The assimilative capacity of the region can be enhanced
by proper scheduling of activities related to source emission
parameters (viz. stack height, exit gas velocity, etc.) and
through distribution of pollution sources. It is pertinent to
point out that any change to this conguration shall
require a new model simulation; however, an approach
similar to that suggested in this paper can be adopted.
4. Conclusions
An approach to atmospheric assimilative capacity
estimation through application of air quality models has
been presented through a case study of the Kochi region.
Assimilative capacity of the region is estimated in terms of
emission loads that can be discharged from industrial
sources in the region. The approach presented in the paper
focuses on future developmental planning and ways and
means to enhance the assimilative capacity of a region so
that more pollution sources can be accommodated in the
region. This approach shall provide guidelines to the
environmental regulatory authorities as well as to the
industries for environment friendly industrial development.
The approach which combines the best features of both the
ventilation coefcient and assimilative capacity will be
helpful in systematic planning of developmental activities
in any country.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to Dr. S. Devotta, Director and
Dr. P. Nema, Head, Air Pollution Control Division for
continuous support and encouragement. They are also
thankful to project fellows, especially Mr. M.D. Lohitesh
and Mr. Nitin Agarwal for their assistance in modelling
exercise.
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