RUNNING HEAD: Enrollment Trends: Managing Negative Numbers at Universities 1

Enrollment Trends: Managing Negative Numbers at Universities

Charles Franco

Northern Illinois University

ETR 520, Fall 2016

ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 2

Table of Contents

Introductory section

Title Page.1

Table of Contents.2

Main Body

I. Problem to be investigated

A. Purpose of the study.4

B. Justification of the study..4

C. Research questions...5

D. Hypothesis................5

E. Definition of terms...5

F. Brief overview of study...............6

II. Background and review of related literature

A. Introduction......6

B. Online Education.....7

C. Distance Learning....8

D. Attempts at Increasing Enrollment..9

E. Common Themes in the Literature....10

III. Procedures

A. Description of the research design........ 10

B. Description of sample....11

C. Description of the instruments used...12

D. Explanation of the procedures followed....13

ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 3

E. Discussion of internal validity.......13

F. Discussion of external validity..............15

G. Description and justification of the statistical techniques or other methods of analysis

used........15

IV. Ethics and human relations

A. Possible threats to research participants....15

B. Research participant cooperation...15

V. Timeline....15

VI. References.....17

VII. Appendix...19
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 4

Problem to be Investigated

Purpose of the Study

The purpose of the study is to identify factors that are causing a decrease in enrollment at

public universities.

Justification of the Study

The topic of enrollment rates has been on university administrations mind consistently

over the course of the past five years across the nation, and especially in the state of Illinois.

This matter became a cause for concern once traditional 4-year universities saw that declining

enrollment numbers were becoming common. The National Center for Education Statistics

reports that, While total undergraduate enrollment increased by 37 percent between 2000 and

2010, enrollment decreased by 4 percent between 2010 and 2014 (Undergraduate Enrollment,

para. 1). While this percent is not a staggering number, and many universities will eventually see

their numbers begin to climb again in coming years, there are numerous universities who need to

monitor this dip in enrollment numbers due to their projections trending in a negative direction.

In an interview with Hechinger Report, Doug Shaprio, the National Student Clearing House

Research Center executive director, stated, This falls numbers show ongoing challenges for

colleges and universities. Adult students are still leaving higher education in large numbers,

particularly for-profit institutions and community colleges (College Enrollment Declines for

Fourth Straight Year, para. 4). Enrollment management departments have been studying past and

present trends of their respective universities seeking out reasoning for these declining numbers,

as well as solutions to for this growing problem.

ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 5

Research Question

Research questions for the study will include the following:

Research Question # 1 (RQ1): What are the main factors that are causing a decline in university
enrollment?
Research Question # 2 (RQ2): Do universities that provide a better overall value for similar costs
attract more students?
Hypothesis

It is expected that schools that provide a better overall value at a reasonable cost will be the

preferred choice for students.

Definition of Terms

Benchmarking: a standard of excellence, achievement, etc., against which similar things

must be measured or judged. For the purpose of this student, universities with declining

enrollment rates will be compared to universities with increasing enrollment rates.

Admission Statistics: for the purpose of this study, admission statistics will include data

such as: rate of acceptance, cost of attendance, average ACT score, student/instructor ratio,

academic information (number of majors/minors, number of departments, etc), and athletics

data.

Overall Value: a subjective valuation of the total amenities that a university offers to its

students.

Qualitative: pertaining to or concerned with quality or qualities.

Quantitative: that is or may be estimated by quantity.

Reasonable Cost: a subjective cost that will be defined by each individual student. For

the purpose of this study, reasonable cost will be considered a cost that is comparable to that of

in-state tuition for each individual student.

ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 6

Brief Overview

By using a diverse research methods this study will look at various factors that affect

these enrollment trends, such as: admission statisticsincluding cost of attendanceat

universities with positive enrollment patterns, admission statisticsincluding cost of attendance

at universities with negative enrollment patterns, incentives to attend universities with positive

enrollment patterns, incentives to attend universities with negative enrollment patterns, survey

data from students who chose to attend a university with positive enrollment patterns vs.

negative enrollment patterns, and survey data from students who chose to attend a 2-year

community college instead of a traditional 4-year educational institution. Assessment data will

be publicized and digitally distributed to university officials who are seeking to improve their

enrollment trends. By analyzing these factors, this study will help enrollment management

departments make decisions to better their present and future enrollment patterns by identifying

current factors negatively affecting their enrollment numbers. The variables of the study will

include independent variables such as admission statistics, dependent variables such as

quantitative enrollment numbers, and other variables such as qualitative student testimonials.

Benchmarking and qualitative student survey answers will help determine specific factors that

are currently affecting enrollment statistics.

Background and Review of Related Literature

Introduction

The literature for this study was discovered using the ERIC database through Northern

Illinois Universitys Library Services as well as Google Scholars. The search was first fueled by

the term enrollment trends. The literature yielded by the search included much research on

distance learning (specifically online education) and disadvantaged youth. To broaden the search,
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 7

descriptors such as current university enrollment trends, Illinois + university enrollment

rates, and public university enrollment rates were then used to increase results. After

conducting the search, documents displaying both quantitative and qualitative data containing

enrollment statistics were examined. The search results were scattered, as evidenced by the

articles containing data ranging from nation-wide studies to specific institutions. The review of

the information is organized by what is deterring potential students from traditional college

campuses, how traditional institutions can use these deterring factors to their advantage, to

themes in the findings.

Online Education

Enrollment rates at the higher education level have always been subject to fluctuation,

however, many universities are noticing consistent negative trends in their findings. The

National Center for Education Statistics reports that, While total undergraduate enrollment

increased by 37 percent between 2000 and 2010, enrollment decreased by 4 percent between

2010 and 2014. One such study, conducted by Eric C. Burns (2011) suggests that some students

are choosing to move from a more traditional 4-year institution to an online educational setting.

In his study, Burns examines the current adult learner, and establishes the idea that this learner

comes in many various forms, which is something that has been uncommon in education in the

past. Todays adult learner does not need to fit the traditional 18-23 -year-old demographic, as

many individuals outside of this age range are obtaining degrees. Burns suggests that many of

these students feel more comfortable completing their degrees online so as to not feel pressure or

out of touch with their potential younger classmates. As stated in this study, from the 1997/98

academic year to the 2000/01 academic year, online enrollment from just under 2 million

students to over 3 million students. Burns also argues that convenience plays a large factor for
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 8

a student who chooses distance education (i.e. education received online through an institution)

over a traditional college campus. Pontes and Pontes (2013) suggest that this preference for

distance learning is also linked to a students field of study. For example, a business student who

is currently in the work force may find it more advantageous to take courses online and maintain

full-time employment instead of having to scale back hours and receive an education in person

on a traditional college campus. Pontes and Pontes (2013) found and recorded which fields of

study had the most percentage of students taking advantage of online learning with business,

computer and information sciences, and health education being the top three.

Distance Learning

Universities should take notice of this increasing desire for online education

specifically universities who are seeing a decline in enrollment numbers. Online institutions

have been doing an excellent job marketing and promoting themselves for years, and it is time

for traditional 4-year institutions to start doing the same. Christensen, Howell, and Christensen

(2015) examined the Brigham Young University (BYU) Salt Lake Center and its use of some

best practices to more efficiently plan and market their scheduling/offerings of courses to its

students and to increase enrollment numbers for the institution. The three state that some

individuals have decided that they wish to receive a degree from BYU, but live closer to Salt

Lake City or work and have found that utilizing the Center is more convenient for them.

Christensen, Howell, and Christensen (2015) then go on to list six questions that can help an

institution capitalize on using distance education to its advantage. These six questions are: 1)

how can we best use main campus enrollments to predict which courses to offer at the extended

campus? 2) How can we best use the waitlist for courses offered on the main campus to inform

course offerings at the extended campus? 3) How can we apply the Amazon principle of
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 9

customers who bought this item also bought to predict which courses to offer in tandem? 4)

When is the best time to cancel a low-enrolling course? 5) What is the best day, and time of day,

to offer courses? and 6) Which courses do the students really want to take, and when?

(Christensen, Howell, Christensen 2015).

Attempts at Increasing Enrollment

This does not mean that universities should not consider revamping their current

infrastructure in an attempt to recruit more students to their traditional campuses. One such

modification to university policy was examined by Kimberly D. Miller, Dongqing Yu, Joseph G.

L. Lee, Leah M. Ranney, Daniel J. Simons, & Adam O. Goldstein (2014). This specific study

involved private colleges and universities and public community colleges in North Carolina that

had made the choice to enforce a 100% tobacco free campus rule. While the study states that

there was no evidence to suggest that this had any effect on enrollment rates, it is a perfect

example of the mindset that universities witnessing a reduction in enrollment numbers should

takeexamine anything and everything to discuss what will work. Jonathan Coulson, Paul

Roberts & Isabelle Taylor (2015) highlight this even further by stating that many graduating high

school students use details as minor as the aesthetic appeal of a college campus as factors that

influence their decisions. Colleges and universities that are seen actively trying to improve their

college campus are view positively in the potential students eyes.

In a 2016 article, Amelia Mays Woods, K. Andrew R. Richards & Suzan F. Ayers suggest

that faculty should also be focusing on ways that they too can help turn declining enrollment

trends around. By promoting programs within their own fields of study, faculty and staff can

help reach out to high school students who have not yet decided on a career path. Woods et al.
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 10

(2016) also suggest that universities reach out to local high schools to promote their own

programs.

Common Themes in Literature

The literature reviewed contained many of the same themes throughout various findings.

Many researchers have focused their studies on alternatives to traditional education, such as

online education and distance learning. Another common theme among the studies found was

that of disadvantaged youth. One such journal, written by Barbara Schneider (2015), cites

reasons that disadvantaged youth may not attend college, such as a lack of funding or a lack of

previous opportunities for development, but does not examine rates at which these students are

enrolling compared to students who are presented with more resources.

Procedures

Description of the Research Design

The research method for this study is descriptive, using a survey design. By using a

survey design, the researcher is able to gather the thoughts of students who chose not to attend a

traditional four-year institution, and is then able to analyze the responses for specific trends in

the data. In addition to this data collection, the researcher will also contact students who did

choose to attend a traditional four-year institution and will compare this data with that of the

students who chose a non-traditional path. The results collected will be qualitative, as the

researcher aims to add a narrative to data that is often quantitative. The results of the students

who chose not to attend a traditional four-year institution will be analyzed for trends that led to

the non-traditional education. For the students who chose to attend a traditional four-year

institution, their results will be analyzed for what attracted them to the university as well as any

factors that have made them regret their decision to attend the school that they chose.
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 11

Description of the Sample

Sample Characteristics

In order to identify qualitative trends in the data, the sample size for the study will be

collected from a large population of students from various institutionsthe entire student body

for each institution contacted will be considered part of the population. The researcher will

contact various online institutions with positive-trending enrollment rates as well as traditional

four-year institutions and distribute the survey to appropriate school representativesmost likely

a staff memberwith the authority to distribute the survey. These school representatives will be

asked to send the survey to students via email. If a school is unwilling to participate in the study,

the researcher will explain that the aim of the study is to gather data that explains what is

attracting and what is not attracting students to a specific institution and that this data can be

used by these institutions as a recruitment resource.

The students who are contacted should not be identified by any single characteristic (i.e.

Senior, Commuter, First-Year, etc) as the researcher aims to gather a diverse pool of

responses. For each institution, the researcher will aim to collect roughly 10-15 survey responses

from students. The study aims to provide a narrative to trends in enrollment data, so a larger

sample size is needed from each institution. However, since it is a qualitative study, the sample

size should not be so large from each institution that it decreases the number of institutions being

sampled. Therefore, 10-15 responses from each institution is appropriate, and 5 non-traditional

and 5 traditional institutions will be sampled from.

Sample Procedure

To attempt to remove bias and gather as diverse a data collection as possible, a simple random

sampling will be conducted using the emails obtained. Simple random sampling is the best
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 12

choice for data collection for this study because it will allow for various responses. Creswell

(2012) explains that simple random sampling is when the researcher assigns arbitrary values to

each individual included in the sample size and then randomly selecting the values to determine

who will participate (p. 143). Creswell further explains that bias in the study is then evenly

distributed among all participants. While the responses to the survey questions are expected to

be different since it is a qualitative study, simple random sampling will allow the researcher to

pool answers from different makeups of the student body. For example, if there are many Smiths

or Johnsons who attend the school, then the researcher might assume that he/she is not receiving

a culturally diverse response to the survey questions. By utilizing simple random sampling, the

researcher attempts to gather as diverse a response as possible.

Description of the Instruments

Variables Studied

As stated previously, the study aims to answer the two following research questions:

what are the main factors that are causing a decline in university enrollment? and do

universities that provide a better overall value for similar costs attract more students?

The variables examined for the first research question will be the main factors that are

causing a decline in enrollment. For the second research question, the independent variables will

be the amenities that the universities offer as well as the cost of attendance; the dependent

variable will be the number of students that attend the school.

Instruments Used

The instrument used for the study will be a survey that asks students to respond to

prompts based off of their educational choices. The survey will also look at factors such as

satisfaction with these choices, and if the student has ever considered transferring to a different
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 13

program. This survey will be the only instrument used in the study, and it will examine all of the

previously listed variables.

Explanation of the Procedures Followed

The researcher will first develop a survey that will be distributed to the students via

email. This survey will consist of 10 questions that will examine the choices that each student

made to provide a narrative of how they decided to attend the institution they are currently

enrolled in. These questions will also gauge how much value the student perceives he/she is

getting out of the education in regards to the cost of the education. The survey will also examine

if the student has ever regretted attending the institution he/she is currently enrolled in, as well as

if he/she has ever considered transferring to a different program. To distribute the survey, the

researcher will ask a school representative/staff member from each university to contact students

via email. The researcher will provide each contacted school official with a description of the

study that can also be provided to students along with the survey. When a student accesses the

survey, it will bring him/her to an anonymous Google Forms webpage that will allow the student

to respond to each survey question with complete confidentiality. When the student completes

the survey, the data will be logged in a file for the researcher to access once the timeline for data

collection has expired.

Internal Validity

There are several threats to the internal validity in the study, which include: subject

characteristics, subject attitude, morality, and implementation. Shadish, Cook, & Campbell

(2002) explain that threats to internal validity are problems in drawing correct inferences about

whether the covariation (i.e., the variation in one variable contributes to the variation in the other

variable) between the presumed treatment variable and the outcome reflects a casual relationship
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 14

(as cited in Creswell, 2012, p303). Precautions will be taken to avoid these threats as the

experiment progresses.

A subject characteristics threat occurs when the characteristics of the individuals

participating in a study can easily be observed to be related (Fraenkel & Wallen, 1993). This

presents itself as a threat to the study because the researcher aims to gather a diverse array of

responses to the survey. To combat this threat, the researcher will use a simple random sampling

method from the population in order to reach various students. Once the students have been

contacted, their attitudes then pose a threat to the internal validity if they do not feel there is a

purpose in participating in the study. The subjects will be offered a $5 Starbucks gift card for

survey participation in order to avoid this threat.

Creswell (2012) explains that morality, which is an additional threat to this study, occurs

when an individual drops out during the experiment for any number of reasons and the data

collected is difficult to analyze (p304). A common occurrence may be that students feel that the

survey is too time consuming for the reward they are receiving. The researcher will construct the

survey so that it allows the data collected to tell a narrative, but will limit the survey to just 10

questions so the student does not feel as if the survey is of substantial length.

An implementation threat to validity occurs when results of a study are skewed due to

variations in the conduction in the study (Fraenkel & Wallen, 1993). In this research study, the

student may also feel that his/her identity is being threatened by the survey. To avoid this, proper

implementation should be done to keep the survey anonymous and only allow for the students

respective institutions to be identifiers.

ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 15

External Validity

The data collected from the survey will be used to generalize several trends in enrollment

for various institutions, those being: non-traditional institutions, institutions with positive

enrollment trends, and institutions with negative enrollment trends. The researcher will contact

several different institutions of these kinds to allow for the data to be generalized to institutions

with similar characteristics and trends.

Description and Justification of the Statistical Techniques or Other Methods of Analysis

Used

After the data has been collected, the researcher will review the survey results and will

categorize similar responses into thematic values. The researcher will then use a frequency

distribution method to view the similar responses and how often then occurred.

Ethics and Human Relations

Possible Threats to Research Participants

Each participants responses are subject to be threatened throughout the study. However,

the survey will be designed in such a way that will allow the students to state what institution

they currently attend, but will not ask the student to state his/her name. By keeping the survey

anonymous, the data collected will not be able to be traced back to any individual.

Because the survey will be distributed by email, the researcher will not need to gain entry

into any specific physical space. However, the researcher will need cooperation from each

institution when receiving student emails. Because of this, the researcher should gather

information on more institutions than are necessary to complete the survey, which will allow the

researcher to complete the study if a single institution does not wish to participate. Once emails
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 16

have been obtained from the institution, the researcher will offer a $5 Starbucks gift card to each

student who is contacted to complete the survey.

Timeline

The first step of the study will be the crafting of the survey. This should be allotted

approximately two daysone day for the crafting and one day for review. The researcher will

then spend approximately two to three days worth of time researching institutions. The

researcher should look to balance both institutions who are experiencing positive trends in

enrollment and ones who are experiencing negative trends in enrollment. Once it is constructed

but before it is distributed, the researcher will contact five geographically separate traditional

institutions, as well as five different non-traditional institutions. The researcher should allow

approximately one week for the institutions to respond. In this initial contact, the researcher will

ask school officials to reach out to students for participation. Each student who is interested will

be given an arbitrary value to be utilized by simple random sampling. 15 students from those

who have expressed interest in participating will be selected randomly to complete the survey. If

the researcher receives fewer than 10 survey responses from any individual institution, then the

researcher will invite more students to participate in the study to make up for the difference. One

week will be given to the students to respond to the survey. The researcher will then spend the

next two weeks analyzing data.

ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 17

References

A-Z, B. S. (2016, May). The Condition of Education - Participation in Education - Postsecondary

- Undergraduate Enrollment - Indicator May (2016). Retrieved September 16, 2016, from

http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cha.asp

Burns, E. C. (2011). The Adult Learner: A Change Agent in Post-Secondary Education. Online

Journal of Distance Learning Administration, 14(2). Retrieved October 8, 2016, from

http://www.westga.edu/~distance/ojdla/summer142/burns_142.html

Christensen, S. S., Howell, S. L., & Christensen, J. (2015). Six Ways to Increase Enrollments at

an Extended Campus. Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration, 18(4).

Retrieved October 8, 2016, from

https://www.westga.edu/~distance/ojdla/winter184/christensen_howell_christensen184.ht

ml

Coulson, J., Roberts, P., & Taylor, I. (2015). The future of the campus: Architecture and master

planning trends [Abstract]. Perspectives: Policy And Practice In Higher Education, 19(4).

Retrieved October 9, 2016, from http://www.tandfonline.com/action/showCitFormats?

doi=10.1080/13603108.2015.1026421

Creswell, J. W. (2012). Educational research: Planning, conducting, and evaluating quantitative

and qualitative research (4th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson/Merrill Prentice Hall.

Dictionary.com - The world's favorite online dictionary! (n.d.). Retrieved September 17, 2016,

from http://www.dictionary.com/

Fraenkel, J. R., & Wallen, N. E. (1993). How to design and evaluate research in education. New

York: McGraw-Hill.
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 18

Marcus, J. (2016, December 16). College Enrollment Declines for Fourth Straight Year.

Retrieved September 16, 2016, from http://hechingerreport.org/college-enrollment-

declines-for-fourth-straight-year/

Miller, K. D., Yu, D., Lee, J. G., Ranney, L. M., Simons, D. J., & Goldstein, A. O. (2015). Impact

of the Adoption of Tobacco-Free Campus Policies on Student Enrollment at Colleges and

Universities, North Carolina, 20012010 [Abstract]. Impact of the Adoption of Tobacco-

Free Campus Policies on Student Enrollment at Colleges and Universities, North

Carolina, 20012010, 63(4). Retrieved October 9, 2016, from

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07448481.2015.1015023

Pontes, M. C., & Pontes, N. M. (2013). Undergraduate Students' Preference for Distance

Education by Field of Study. Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration, 16(2).

Retrieved October 8, 2016, from http://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1018807

Schneider, B. (2015, October). The College Ambition Program: A Realistic Transition Strategy

for Traditionally Disadvantaged Students. Educational Researcher, 44(7), 394-403.

Retrieved October 7, 2016, from http://www.ulib.niu.edu:2465/content/44/7/394.full.pdf

html
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 19

Appendix

What educational institution are you currently enrolled in?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

What reasons led to your enrollment in this institution?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Were there any other educational institutions you considered enrolling in?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

If you answered yes to the previous question, please list the educational institutions you considered and a
brief explanation of why you chose to not enroll:

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Do you find the cost of your current educational institution reasonable? Why or why not?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

What, if any, amenities (such as campus recreation center, tutoring services, dining services, athletic
events, access to computer programs, intramural sports, etc) does your institution offer that you utilize?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Have you ever considered leaving your educational institution? If yes, why?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

What services might your educational institution offer to improve your overall experience?

_____________________________________________________________________________________
ENROLLMENT TRENDS: MANAGING NEGATIVE NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITIES 20

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Are you satisfied with your educational experience? Why or why not?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Are there any negative factors associated with your educational institution? If yes, what are they?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________________