Brexit - Wikipedia

1/29/2017 BrexitWikipedia
Brexit
FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia
TheUnitedKingdom'swithdrawalfromtheEuropeanUnioniswidelyknownasBrexit,aportmanteauof
"British"and"exit".[1]Followingareferendumheldon23June2016,inwhich52%ofvotescastwerein
favourofleavingtheEU,theUKgovernmentintendstoinvokeArticle50oftheTreatyonEuropeanUnion
(theformalprocedureforwithdrawing)bytheendofMarch2017.This,withinthetreatyterms,wouldputthe
UKonacoursetoleavetheEUbyMarch2019.PrimeMinisterTheresaMay,electedbytheruling
ConservativePartyinthewakeofthereferendum,haspromisedabilltorepealtheEuropeanCommunitiesAct
1972andtoincorporateexistingEUlawsintoUKdomesticlaw.[2]InJanuary2017,Mayannounceda12point
planofnegotiatingobjectivesandconfirmedthattheUKgovernmentwouldnotseekcontinuedmembershipof
thesinglemarket.[3]Thetermsofwithdrawalhavenotyetbeennegotiatedandinthemeantime,theUK
remainsafullmemberoftheEuropeanUnion.[4]
TheUKjoinedtheEuropeanEconomicCommunity(EEC),apredecessoroftheEU,in1973,andconfirmedits
membershipina1975referendumby67%ofthevotes.Historicalopinionpolls19732015tendedtoreveal
majoritiesinfavourofremainingintheEEC,ECorEU.Inthe1970sand1980s,withdrawalfromtheEECwas
advocatedmainlybysomeLabourPartyandtradeunionfigures.Fromthe1990s,withdrawalfromtheEUwas
advocatedmainlybysomeConservativesandbythenewlyfoundedUKIndependenceParty(UKIP).
Contents
1 Theterm"Brexit"
2 Historicalbackground
2.1 FoundingoftheEECin1957andBritishapplicationsformembership
2.2 1975referendum
2.3 Betweenreferendums
2.4 Euroscepticism
3 2016referendum
3.1 NegotiationsforEUReform
3.2 Campaigngroups
3.3 Referendumresult
3.4 Politicaleffects
4 ProcedureforleavingtheEU
4.1 Advisorystatusofthereferendum
4.2 Article50
4.3 InvokingArticle50
4.4 Needforparliamentaryapproval
4.4.1 Legalchallenges
4.5 "GreatRepealBill"
4.6 Negotiatingpositions
5 ConsequencesofwithdrawalfortheUnitedKingdom
5.1 RelationshipwithremainingEUmembers
5.2 Immigration
5.3 Economiceffects
5.4 Scotland,NorthernIreland,London,andGibraltar
5.5 BorderswiththeRepublicofIrelandandFrance
6 ConsequencesofwithdrawalfortheEU
7 Seealso
8 Notes
9 References
10 Furtherreading
11 Externallinks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit 1/24
Theterm"Brexit"
Brexit(likeitsearlyvariant,Brixit)[5]isaportmanteauof"British"and"exit".Itwasderivedbyanalogyfrom
Grexit,referringtoahypotheticalwithdrawalofGreecefromtheeurozone(andpossiblyalsotheEU).[6]The
termBrexitmayhavefirstbeenusedinreferencetoapossibleUKwithdrawalfromtheEUbyPeterWildingin
aEuractivblogposton15May2012.[7][8]Theterms"hardBrexit"and"softBrexit"aremuchused
unofficially,[9]andareunderstoodtodescribetheprospectiverelationshipbetweentheUKandtheEUafter
withdrawal,rangingfromhard,thatcouldinvolvetheUKtradingwiththeEUlikeanyothernonEUmember
countryunderWorldTradeOrganisationrulesbutwithnoobligationtoacceptfreemovementofpeople,to
soft,thatmightinvolveretainingmembershipoftheEUsinglemarketforgoodsandservicesandatleastsome
freemovementofpeople,accordingtoEuropeanEconomicArearules.[10]
Historicalbackground
OpinionpollstakenafterEUaccessionin1973untiltheendof2015generallyrevealedpopularBritishsupport
forEECorEUmembership.[11]Similarly,intheUnitedKingdomEuropeanCommunitiesmembership
referendumof1975,twothirdsofBritishvotersfavouredmembership.Aclearexceptionwastheyear1980,
thefirstfullyearofPrimeMinisterMargaretThatcher'stermofoffice,whenthehighesteverrejectionof
membershipwasmeasured,with65%opposedtoand26%infavourofmembership.[11]AfterThatcherhad
negotiatedarebateofBritishmembershippaymentsin1984,thosefavouringtheEECmaintainedaleadinthe
opinionpolls,exceptduring2000,asPrimeMinisterTonyBlairaimedforcloserEUintegrationincluding
adoptionoftheeurocurrency,andaround2011,asimmigrationintotheUnitedKingdombecameincreasingly
noticeable.[11]AslateasDecember2015therewas,accordingtoComRes,aclearmajorityinfavourof
remainingintheEU,albeitwithawarningthatvoterintentionswouldbeconsiderablyinfluencedbythe
outcomeofPrimeMinisterDavidCameron'songoingEUreformnegotiations,especiallywithregardstothe
twoissuesof"safeguardsfornonEurozonememberstates"and"immigration".[12]Thefollowingeventsare
relevant.
FoundingoftheEECin1957andBritishapplicationsformembership
TheUKwasnotasignatorytotheTreatyofRomewhichcreatedtheEECin1957.Thecountrysubsequently
appliedtojointheorganisationin1963andagainin1967,butbothapplicationswerevetoedbythePresident
ofFrance,CharlesdeGaulle,whosaidthat"anumberofaspectsofBritain'seconomy,fromworkingpractices
toagriculture"had"madeBritainincompatiblewithEurope"andthatBritainharboureda"deepseated
hostility"toanypanEuropeanproject.[13]OncedeGaullehadrelinquishedtheFrenchpresidencyin1969,the
UKmadeathirdandsuccessfulapplicationformembership.Thequestionofsovereigntyhadbeendiscussedat
thetimeinanofficialForeignandCommonwealthOfficedocument(FCO30/1048)thatbecameopentothe
publicinJanuary2002undertherulesforavailabilityafterthirtyyears.Itlistedamong"Areasofpolicyin
whichparliamentaryfreedomtolegislatewillbeaffectedbyentryintotheEuropeanCommunities":Customs
duties,Agriculture,Freemovementoflabour,servicesandcapital,Transport,andSocialSecurityformigrant
workers.Thedocumentconcluded(paragraph26)thatitwasadvisabletoputtheconsiderationsofinfluence
andpowerbeforethoseofformalsovereignty.[14]TheTreatyofAccessionwassignedinJanuary1972bythe
primeministerEdwardHeath,leaderoftheConservativeparty.[15]Parliament'sEuropeanCommunitiesAct
1972wasenactedon17OctoberandtheUK'sinstrumentofratificationwasdepositedthenextday(18
October),[16]lettingtheUnitedKingdom'smembershipoftheEEC,or"CommonMarket",comeintoeffecton
1January1973.[17]TheoppositionLabourParty,ledbyHaroldWilson,contestedtheOctober1974general
electionwithacommitmenttorenegotiateBritain'stermsofmembershipoftheEECandthenholda
referendumonwhethertoremainintheEEConthenewterms.[18]
1975referendum
In1975,theUnitedKingdomheldareferendumonwhethertheUKshouldremainintheEEC.Allofthemajor
politicalpartiesandmainstreampresssupportedcontinuingmembershipoftheEEC.However,therewere
significantdivideswithintherulingLabourparty,themembershipofwhichhadvoted2:1infavourof
withdrawalataonedaypartyconferenceon26April1974.Sincethecabinetwassplitbetweenstronglypro
EuropeanandstronglyantiEuropeanministers,HaroldWilsonsuspendedtheconstitutionalconventionof
Cabinetcollectiveresponsibilityandallowedministerstopubliclycampaignoneitherside.Sevenofthe
twentythreemembersofthecabinetopposedEECmembership.[19]
On5June1975,theelectoratewereaskedtovoteyesornoonthequestion:"DoyouthinktheUKshouldstay
intheEuropeanCommunity(CommonMarket)?"EveryadministrativecountyintheUKhadamajorityof
"Yes",excepttheShetlandIslandsandtheOuterHebrides.Withaturnoutof64%,theoutcomeofthevotewas
67.2%infavourofstayingin,andtheUnitedKingdomremainedamemberoftheEEC.[20]SupportfortheUK
toleavetheEUin1975,inthedata,appearsunrelatedtothesupportforLeaveinthe2016referendum.[21]
Betweenreferendums
In1979theUnitedKingdomoptedoutofthenewlyformedEuropeanExchangeRateMechanism(ERM)
whichwastheprecursortothecreationoftheeuro.
TheoppositionLabourPartycampaignedinthe1983generalelectiononacommitmenttowithdrawfromthe
EECwithoutareferendum.[22]ItwasheavilydefeatedastheConservativegovernmentofMargaretThatcher
wasreelected.TheLabourPartysubsequentlychangeditspolicy.[22]
In1985theUnitedKingdomratifiedtheSingleEuropeanAct,thefirstmajorrevisiontotheTreatyofRome
withoutareferendumwiththefullsupportHMGovernmentofMargaretThatcher.
InOctober1990despitethedeepreservationsofPrimeMinisterMargaretThatcherbutunderpressurefrom
herseniorministerstheUnitedKingdomjoinedtheERMwiththepoundsterlingpeggedtothedeutschmark.
InNovember1990ThatcherresignedasPrimeMinisteramidinternaldivisionswithintheConservativeParty
arisingpartlyfromherincreasinglyEuroscepticviews.InSeptember1992theUnitedKingdomwasforcedto
withdrawfromtheERMafterthepoundsterlingcameunderpressurefromcurrencyspeculators(anepisode
knownasBlackWednesday).TheresultingcosttoUKtaxpayerswasestimatedtobeinexcessof
3billion.[23][24]
AsaresultoftheMaastrichtTreaty,theEECbecametheEuropeanUnionon1November1993.[25]Thenew
namereflectedtheevolutionoftheorganisationfromaneconomicunionintoapoliticalunion.[26]Asaresult
oftheLisbonTreaty,whichenteredintoforceon1December2009,theMaastrichtTreatyisnowknown,in
updatedformas,theTreatyonEuropeanUnion(2007)orTEU,andtheTreatyofRomeisnowknown,in
updatedform,astheTreatyontheFunctioningoftheEuropeanUnion(2007)orTFEU.
TheReferendumPartywasformedin1994bySirJamesGoldsmithtocontestthe1997generalelectionona
platformofprovidingareferendumontheUK'smembershipoftheEU.[27]Itfieldedcandidatesin547
constituenciesatthatelectionandwon810,860votes,2.6%oftotalvotescast.[28]Itfailedtowinasingle
parliamentaryseatasitsvotewasspreadout,losingitsdeposit(fundedbyGoldsmith)in505constituencies.[28]
TheUKIndependenceParty(UKIP),aEuroscepticpoliticalparty,wasalsoformed,in1993.Itachievedthird
placeintheUKduringthe2004Europeanelections,secondplaceinthe2009Europeanelectionsandfirst
placeinthe2014Europeanelections,with27.5%ofthetotalvote.Thiswasthefirsttimesincethe1910
generalelectionthatanypartyotherthantheLabourorConservativepartieshadtakenthelargestshareofthe
voteinanationwideelection.[29]UKIP'selectoralsuccessinthe2014Europeanelectionhasbeendocumented
asthestrongestcorrelateofthesupportfortheleavecampaigninthe2016referendum.[30]
In2014,UKIPwontwobyelections,triggeredwhenthesittingConservativeMPsdefectedtoUKIPandthen
resigned.TheseweretheirfirstelectedMPs.Atthe2015generalelectionUKIPtook12.6%ofthetotalvote
andheldoneofthetwoseatswonin2014.[31]
Euroscepticism
EuroscepticismisthecriticismofandstrongoppositiontotheEuropeanUnion.
EuroscepticismhasbeenincreasingaccordingtotheNatCenSocialResearchanditsBritishSocialAttitudes
(BSA)survey.Since1983,theBSAsurveyhasbeencollectingopinionsinEuropewhetherUKshouldremain
orwithdrawintheEuropeanUnion.Inthe1990s,theBSAsurveyofferedvariouschoicestotherespondents
fortheBritain'srelationshipwiththeEuropeanUnion.
1.towithdrawfromtheEU
2.toremainwithintheEUandattempttodiminishitspower
3.toleavethingsastheyare
4.tostaywithintheEUandtrytobroadenitspower
5.toworkfortheformationofasingleEuropeangovernment
22%oftherespondentsagreedwithoption1and43%withoption2.65%eitherdesiretobreaktiesordecrease
theEU'slegislativeinfluenceandonly38%supportbothoption1and2.Euroscepticismhasbeenincreasing
since1993.[32]
2016referendum
NegotiationsforEUReform
In2012,PrimeMinisterDavidCameronrejectedcallsforareferendumontheUK'sEUmembership,but
suggestedthepossibilityofafuturereferendumtogaugepublicsupport.[33][34]AccordingtotheBBC,"The
primeministeracknowledgedtheneedtoensuretheUK'spositionwithintheEuropeanUnionhad'thefull
heartedsupportoftheBritishpeople'buttheyneededtoshow'tacticalandstrategicpatience'."[35]
UnderpressurefrommanyofhisMPsandfromtheriseofUKIP,inJanuary2013,Cameronannouncedthata
ConservativegovernmentwouldholdaninoutreferendumonEUmembershipbeforetheendof2017,ona
renegotiatedpackage,ifelectedin2015.[36]
TheConservativePartyunexpectedlywonthe2015generalelectionwithamajority.Soonafterwardsthe
EuropeanUnionReferendumAct2015wasintroducedintoParliamenttoenablethereferendum.Cameron
favouredremaininginareformedEuropeanUnionandsoughttorenegotiateonfourkeypoints:protectionof
thesinglemarketfornoneurozonecountries,reductionof"redtape",exemptingBritainfrom"evercloser
union",andrestrictingEUimmigration.[37]
TheoutcomeoftherenegotiationswasannouncedinFebruary2016.Somelimitstoinworkbenefitsfornew
EUimmigrantswereagreed,butbeforetheycouldbeapplied,acountrysuchastheUKwouldhavetoget
permissionfromtheEuropeanCommissionandthenfromtheEuropeanCouncil.[38]
InaspeechtotheHouseofCommonson22February2016,Cameronannouncedareferendumdateof23June
2016andcommentedontherenegotiationsettlement.[39]CameronspokeofanintentiontotriggertheArticle
50processimmediatelyfollowingaleavevoteandofthe"twoyeartimeperiodtonegotiatethearrangements
forexit."[40]
Campaigngroups
TheofficialcampaigngroupforleavingtheEUwasVoteLeave.[41]Othermajorcampaigngroupsincluded
Leave.EU,[42]GrassrootsOut,GetBritainOutandBetterOffOut.[43]
TheofficialcampaigntostayintheEU,chairedbyStuartRose,was
knownasBritainStrongerinEurope,orinformallyasRemain.Other
campaignssupportingremainingintheEUincludedConservatives
In,[44]LabourinforBritain,[45]#INtogether(LiberalDemocrats),[46]
GreensforaBetterEurope,[47]ScientistsforEU,[48]Environmentalists
ForEurope,[49]UniversitiesforEurope[50]andAnotherEuropeis
Possible.[51]
Referendumresult
A"VoteLeave"posterinOmagh
saying"WesendtheEU50million
Theresultwasannouncedonthemorningof24June:51.9%votedin
everyday.Let'sspenditonourNHS
favourofleavingtheEuropeanUnionand48.1%votedinfavourof
instead."
remainingamemberoftheEuropeanUnion.[52][53]Comprehensive
resultsareavailablefromtheUKElectoralCommissionReferendum
Results(http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/findinformationbysubject/electionsandreferendums/upcom
ingelectionsandreferendums/eureferendum/electorateandcountinformation/)site.Apetitioncallingfora
secondreferendumattractedmorethanfourmillionsignatures,[54][55]butwasrejectedbythegovernmenton9
July.[56]
UnitedKingdomEuropeanUnionmembershipreferendum,2016
Choice Votes %
LeavetheEuropeanUnion 17,410,742 51.89
RemainamemberoftheEuropeanUnion 16,141,241 48.11
Validvotes 33,551,983 99.92
Invalidorblankvotes 25,359 0.08
Totalvotes 33,577,342 100.00
Registeredvotersandturnout 46,500,001 72.21
Votingagepopulationandturnout 51,356,768 65.38
Source:ElectoralCommission[57]UNDESA(https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/)(UKVAP)USCensusBureau(https://www.cen
sus.gov/population/international/data/idb/region.php?N=%20Results%20&T=15&A=separate&RT=0&Y=2015,2016&R=1
&C=GI)(GibraltarVAP)
Referendumresults(withoutspoiledballots)
Leave: Remain:
17,410,742(51.9%) 16,141,241(48.1%)

Resultsbyregion(left)andbylocalcouncildistrict(right)
Leave
Remain
Politicaleffects
Aftertheresultwasdeclared,CameronannouncedthathewouldresignbyOctober.[58]Hestooddownon13
July2016,withTheresaMaybecomingPrimeMinister.GeorgeOsbornewasreplacedasChancellorofthe
ExchequerbyPhilipHammond,formerMayorofLondonBorisJohnsonwasappointedSecretaryofStatefor
ForeignandCommonwealthAffairs,andDavidDavisbecameSecretaryofStateforExitingtheEuropean
Union.LabourleaderJeremyCorbynlostavoteofconfidenceamonghisparliamentarypartyandaleadership
challengewaslaunched,whileon4July,NigelFarageannouncedhisresignationasheadofUKIP.[59]
OutsidetheUKmanyEuroscepticleaderscelebratedandexpectedotherstofollowtheUKexample.Theright
wingDutchpopulistGeertWilderssaidthattheNetherlandsshouldfollowBritain'sexampleandholda
referendumonwhethertheNetherlandsshouldstayintheEuropeanUnion.[60]However,opinionpollsinthe
fortnightfollowingtheBritishreferendumshowthattheimmediatereactionintheNetherlandsandother
EuropeancountrieswasadeclineinsupportforEuroscepticmovements.[61]
Aweekafterthereferendum,GordonBrown,aformerLabourPartyleaderandthePrimeMinisterwhohad
signedtheLisbonTreatyin2007,warnedofadangerthatinthenextdecadethecountrywouldberefighting
thereferendum.HewrotethatremainerswerefeelingtheymustbepessimiststoprovethatBrexitis
unmanageablewithoutcatastrophe,whileleaversoptimisticallyclaimeconomicrisksareexaggerated.[62]
ThepreviousleaderoftheLabourPartyandPrimeMinister(19972007),TonyBlair,inOctober2016called
forasecondreferendum,adecisionthroughparliamentorageneralelectiontodecidefinallyifBritainshould
leavetheEU.[63]FormerleaderoftheConservativePartyandPrimeMinisterJohnMajor(1990to1997)
arguedinNovember2016thatparliamentwillhavetoratifywhateverdealisnegotiatedandthen,depending
onthedealtherecouldbeacaseforasecondreferendum.[64]
ProcedureforleavingtheEU
Advisorystatusofthereferendum
Aswasthecasewiththe1975referendum,the2016referendumdidnotdirectlyrequirethegovernmenttodo
anythinginparticular.Itdoesnotrequirethegovernmenttoinitiate,orevenschedule,theArticle50
procedure.[65]TheUKgovernmentstatedthattheywouldexpectaleavevotetobefollowedbywithdrawal,not
byasecondvote.[66]Inaleafletsentoutbeforethereferendum,theUKgovernmentstated"Thisisyour
decision.TheGovernmentwillimplementwhatyoudecide."[67]AlthoughCameronstatedduringthecampaign
thathewouldinvokeArticle50straightawayintheeventofaleavevictory,[68]herefusedtoallowtheCivil
Servicetomakeanycontingencyplans,somethingtheForeignAffairsSelectCommitteelaterdescribedas"an
actofgrossnegligence."[69]FollowingthereferendumresultCameronannouncedbeforetheConservative
PartyconferencethathewouldresignbyOctober,andthatitwouldbefortheincomingPrimeMinisterto
invokeArticle50.[70]QuotingtheexPrimeMinister'smediareleaseontheUKgovernment'swebportal,
gov.uk(http://www.gov.uk/):
AnegotiationwiththeEuropeanUnionwillneedtobeginunderanewPrimeMinister,andIthink
itisrightthatthisnewPrimeMinistertakesthedecisionaboutwhentotriggerArticle50andstart
theformalandlegalprocessofleavingtheEU.
DavidCameron,"EUreferendumoutcome:PMstatement,24June2016".gov.uk.Retrieved
25June2016.
InthelegalcaseoverwhohasthepowertogiveanotificationunderArticle50,theSecretaryofStatedidnot
contendthattheReferendumAct2015suppliedastatutorypowerfortheCrowntogivenoticeunderArticle
50.[71]TheCourtobservedthathewasrightnottodoso,becauseanyargumenttothateffectwouldhavebeen
untenableasamatterofstatutoryinterpretationofthe2015Act[72]andstated:
...areferendumonanytopiccanonlybeadvisoryforthelawmakersinParliamentunlessvery
clearlanguagetothecontraryisinthereferendumlegislationinquestion.Nosuchlanguageis
usedinthe2015ReferendumAct.Further,the2015ReferendumActwaspassedagainsta
backgroundincludingaclearbriefingpapertoparliamentariansexplainingthatthereferendum
wouldhaveadvisoryeffectonly.
MillerandSantosv.SecretaryofState[2016]EWHC2768(Admin),para.1056[73]
Article50
SincetheLisbonTreatycameintoeffectinDecember2009,theprocessofwithdrawalfromtheEuropean
UnionhasbeengovernedbyArticle50oftheTreatyonEuropeanUnion.Nomemberstatehaseverleftthe
EU.[a]Article50providesaninvocationprocedurewherebyamembercannotifytheEuropeanCounciland
thereisanegotiationperiodofuptotwoyears,afterwhichthetreatiesceasetoapplyalthoughaleaving
agreementmaybeagreedbyqualifiedmajorityvoting.[74]UnlesstheCounciloftheEuropeanUnion
unanimouslyagreestoextensions,thetimingfortheUKleavingunderthearticleistwoyearsfromwhenthe
countrygivesofficialnoticetotheEU.Theassumptionisthatnewagreementswillbenegotiatedduringthe
twoyearwindow,butthereisnolegalrequirementthatagreementshavetobemade.[75]Someaspects,suchas
newtradeagreements,maybedifficulttonegotiateuntilaftertheUKhasformallylefttheEU.[76]Under
Article50,thewithdrawalmustbeinaccordancewiththememberstate'sconstitution,anduncertaintyexistsas
totheconstitutionalrequirementsintheUK.
AnEUParliamentmotionpassedon28June2016calledfortheUKimmediatelytotriggerArticle50andstart
theexitprocess.[77]ThereisnomechanismallowingtheEUtoinvokethearticle.[78]AslongastheUK
GovernmenthasnotinvokedArticle50,theUKstaysamemberoftheEUmustcontinuetofulfilallEU
relatedtreaties,includingpossiblefutureagreementsandshouldlegallybetreatedasamember.TheEUhas
noframeworktoexcludetheUKaslongasArticle50isnotinvoked,andtheUKdoesnotviolateEU
laws.[79][80]However,iftheUKweretobreachEUlawsignificantly,therearelegalprovisionstoallowtheEU
tocancelmembershipofastatethatbreachesfundamentalEUprinciples,atestthatishardtopass.[81]These
donotallowforcedcancellationofmembership,onlydenialofrightssuchasfreetrade,freemovementand
votingrights.
AlanRenwickoftheConstitutionUnitofUniversityCollegeLondonarguesthatArticle50negotiationscannot
beusedtorenegotiatetheconditionsoffuturemembershipandthatArticle50doesnotprovidethelegalbasis
ofwithdrawingadecisiontoleave.[65]
Ontheotherhand,theconstitutionallawyerandretiredGermanSupremeCourtjudgeUdoDiFabiohas
stated[82]that
TheLisbonTreatydoesnotforbidanexitingcountrytowithdrawitsapplicationforleaving,becausethe
ViennaConventionontheLawofTreatiesprescribesaninitialnotificationprocedure,akindofperiodof
notice.Beforeacontractunderinternationallaw[suchastheLisbonTreaty],whichhadbeenagreed
withoutspecifyingdetailsofgivingnotice,canbeeffectivelycancelled,itisrequiredthattheintentionto
dosoisexpressed12monthsinadvance:inthismatterthereexiststheprincipleofpreservingexisting
agreementsandinternationalorganisations.Inthislight,thedeclarationoftheintentiontoleavewould
itselfbe,underEUlaw,notanoticeofcancellation.
SeparatenegotiationsoftheEUinstitutionswithproEUregions[London,ScotlandorNorthernIreland]
wouldconstituteaviolationoftheLisbonTreaty,accordingtowhichtheintegrityofamembercountryis
explicitlyputunderprotection.
AFebruary2016briefingnotefortheEuropeanParliamentstatedthatawithdrawalfromtheEUends,from
thenon,theapplicationoftheEUTreatiesinthewithdrawingstate,althoughanynationalactspreviously
adoptedforimplementingortransposingEUlawwouldremainvaliduntilamendedorrepealed,anda
withdrawalagreementwouldneedtodealwithphasingoutEUfinancialprogrammes.Thenotementionsthata
memberwithdrawingfromtheEUwouldneedtoenactitsownnewlegislationinanyfieldofexclusiveEU
competence,andthatcompleteisolationofawithdrawingstatewouldbeimpossibleifthereistobeafuture
relationshipbetweentheformermemberandtheEU,butthatawithdrawalagreementcouldhavetransitional
provisionsforrightsderivingfromEUcitizenshipandotherrightsderivingfromEUlawthatthewithdrawal
wouldotherwiseextinguish.[83]TheCommonFisheriesPolicyisoneoftheexclusivecompetencesreservedfor
theEuropeanUnionothersconcerncustomsunion,competitionrules,monetarypolicyandconcluding
internationalagreements.[84]
InvokingArticle50
Immediatelyafterthereferendum,CamerondeclaredhisbeliefthatthenextPrimeMinistershouldactivate
Article50andbeginnegotiationswiththeEU.[85]Duringa27June2016meeting,theCabinetdecidedto
establishaunitofcivilservants,headedbyseniorConservativeOliverLetwin,whowouldproceedwith
"intensiveworkontheissuesthatwillneedtobeworkedthroughinordertopresentoptionsandadvicetoa
newPrimeMinisterandanewCabinet".[86]
PrimeMinisterTheresaMaymadeitclearthatdiscussionswiththeEUwouldnotstartin2016."Iwantto
workwith...theEuropeancouncilinaconstructivespirittomakethisasensibleandorderlydeparture."she
said."AllofuswillneedtimetoprepareforthesenegotiationsandtheUnitedKingdomwillnotinvokearticle
50untilourobjectivesareclear."InajointpressconferencewithMayon20July2016,Germany'sChancellor
AngelaMerkelsupportedtheUK'spositioninthisrespect:"Weallhaveaninterestinthismatterbeing
carefullyprepared,positionsbeingclearlydefinedanddelineated.Ithinkitisabsolutelynecessarytohavea
certaintimetoprepareforthat."[87]
InOctober2016theUKPrimeMinister,TheresaMay,announcedthatthegovernmentwouldtriggerArticle50
by"thefirstquarterof2017".[88]
Needforparliamentaryapproval
OpinionsdifferedonwhetherArticle50notificationcouldbegivenfortheUnitedKingdombythegovernment
exercisingtheCrown'sforeignaffairsprerogativewithoutanexplicitActofParliamenttoauthoriseit.The
ConstitutionoftheUnitedKingdomisunwrittenanditoperatesonconventionandlegalprecedent:this
questioniswithoutprecedentandsothelegalpositionisarguablyunclear.
AHouseofCommonsbriefingpapertitledEUTreatychange:theparliamentaryprocessofbills,dated15June
2015,statedthat,whileratificationofinternationaltreatiesisamatterofroyalprerogative,theratificationof
treatiesamendingexistingEUtreatiesiscontrolledbyarequirementforaprioractofParliamentthepaper
madenomentionofnotificationofwithdrawalfromexistingtreaties.[89]Aweekafterthereferendum,a
columnistforTheTimes,DavidPannickQC,askedwhetherparliamentaryapprovalisneededbefore
notificationisgivenoftheUK'sintentiontoleave,andansweredthatanactofparliamentisrequired.[90]The
Governmentarguesthattheuseofprerogativepowerstoenactthereferendumresultisconstitutionallyproper
andconsistentwithdomesticlawwhereastheopposingviewisthatprerogativepowersmaynotbeusedtoset
asiderightspreviouslyestablishedbyParliament.[91]
Legalchallenges
Article50("Brexit")case
ThreegroupsofcitizensbroughtacasebeforetheHighCourtofEnglandandWalestochallengethe
government'sinterpretationofthelaw.[92]On3November2016,thecourtruledthattheUKrequiresa
ParliamentvotebeforeformallystartingtheprocesstoleavetheEU.[93]Thecourtdescribedthepassingofthe
EuropeanCommunitiesAct1972asthemajorstepof"switchingonthedirecteffectofEUlawinthenational
legalsystems",andreasonedthatitisimplausiblethatParliament'sintentionwasthattheCrownshouldbeable
toswitchitoffunilaterallybyexerciseofitsprerogativepowers.[94]TheSupremeCourtoftheUnited
KingdomheardtheappealinDecember.Thecircumstancesinwhichtheroyalprerogativemaybeusedis
regardedasofgreatconstitutionalsignificance.[95]
ApplicationsofotherpartieschallengingthegovernmentinlegalproceedingsinNorthernIreland'sHighCourt
weredismissedon28October,butthecourtwaspreparedtograntleavetoappealinrespectoffouroutofthe
fiveissues.[96]LawofficersofNorthernIreland,Scotland,andWaleswereabletotakepartintheappealon
behalfoftheirgovernments.[97]TheBBCreportedthatScotland'sLordAdvocatewouldbeaddressingthe
CourtonScotslawandtheWelshCounselGeneral'ssubmissionswouldbeontheruleoflawand
parliamentarysovereignty.[98]
TheSupremeCourt'sdecisionontheappealheardinDecemberwasgivenon24January2017.[99]The
SupremeCourtupheldthejudgmentoftheHighCourt,findingthatanActofParliamentwasrequiredto
invokeArticle50.[100]TheSupremeCourtalsoruledthatdevolvedlegislaturesinScotland,Walesand
NorthernIrelandhavenolegalrighttovetotheact.[101]
EEAwithdrawalcase
InJanuary2017,theclaimoffourpeopleinfreshlegalproceedingsagainsttheSecretaryofState(named
anonymouslyasW,L,TandB.inahearingbeforeHighCourtjudgeSirRossCranston)centredontheUK's
linkswiththeEuropeanEconomicArea.Theywouldbeseekingadeclaration'thattheUKcannotwithdraw
fromtheEEAwithouttheapprovalofHMTreasuryandanactofParliament'.Theyweredescribedasordinary
workingmenandwomenwhohaddecidedtomaketheirfuturesintheUKandwishedtheUKtobetheir
permanenthome,onebeingofmixednationalityandanotherbeinganonEEAnationalbutmarriedtoanEEA
national.[102]
"GreatRepealBill"
InOctober2016,TheresaMaypromiseda"GreatRepeal
Bill",whichwouldrepealtheEuropeanCommunitiesAct
1972andrestateinUKlawallenactmentspreviouslyin
forceunderEUlaw.ThisbillwillbeintroducedintheMay
2017parliamentarysessionandenactedbeforeorduring
theArticle50negotiationsitwouldnotcomeintoforce
untilthedateofexit.Itwouldsmooththetransitionby
ensuringthatalllawsremaininforceuntilspecifically
repealed.[103]
Suchabillislikelytocauseissuesconstitutionallyinterms
ofthedevolutionsettlementsthroughouttheUKnations.
TheScottishGovernment'sapproachtothe"GreatRepeal
Bill"isthatitwouldrequirelegislativeconsentfromthe BrexitcampaignersoutsideParliamentinNovember
ScottishParliament,asitwilllegislateonScottish 2016
matters.[104]ItisalsointheScotlandAct1998thatany
legislationpassedbytheScottishParliamenthastocomplywithEuropeanLaw.Withoutanalterationtothis,
HolyroodwillstillneedtofollowEuropeanLaw,orWestminsterwilllikelyfollowconventiontogain
legislativeconsentfromtheScottishParliamenttoalterthisaspectoftheScotlandAct.
ReplyingtoquestionsataparliamentarycommitteeaboutParliament'sinvolvementinvotingontheoutcome
ofthenegotiationswiththeEU,thePrimeMinistersaidthat"deliveringonthevoteoftheBritishpeopleto
leavetheEuropeanUnion"washerpriority.TheoppositionshadowBrexitsecretary,KeirStarmer,commented
thatthegovernmentdidnotwantavoteatthebeginningoftheprocess,totriggerArticle50,noravoteatthe
end.[105]
Negotiatingpositions
VariousEUleadershavesaidthattheywillnotstartanynegotiationbeforetheUKformallyinvokesArticle50.
JeanClaudeJunckerorderedallmembersoftheEUCommissionnottoengageinanykindofcontactwithUK
partiesregardingBrexit.[106]InOctober2016,hestatedthathewasagitatedthattheBritishhadnotdeveloped
asenseofcommunitywithEuropeansduring40yearsofmembershipJunckerdeniedthatBrexitwasa
warningfortheEU,envisageddevelopinganEUdefencepolicywithouttheBritishafterBrexit,andrejecteda
suggestionthattheECshouldnegotiateinsuchawaythatBritainwouldbeabletoholdasecond
referendum.[107]On5November2016,JunckerreactedtoreportsofsomeEuropeanbusinessesseekingto
makeagreementswiththeBritishgovernment,andwarned:"Iamtellingthem[companies]thattheyshouldnot
interfereinthedebate,astheywillfindthatIwillblocktheirpath."[108]
On29June,EuropeanCouncilpresidentDonaldTusktoldtheUKthattheywouldnotbeallowedaccesstothe
EuropeanSingleMarketunlesstheyaccepteditsfourfreedomsofmovementforgoods,capital,services,and
people.[109]
GermanforeignsecretaryFrankWalterSteinmeiermetBritain'sforeignsecretaryBorisJohnsonon4
November2016JohnsonstressedtheimportanceofBritishGermanrelationships,whereasSteinmeier
respondedthattheGermanviewwasthattheUKshouldhavevotedtostayintheEUandthattheGerman
prioritynowwastopreservetheremainingunionof27members.Therecouldbenonegotiationsbeforethe
UKformallygivesnotice.Alongdelaybeforebeginningnegotiationswouldbedetrimental.GreatBritain
couldnotkeeptheadvantagesofthecommonmarketbutatthesametimecancelthe"lesspleasantrules".[110]
TheFirstMinisterofScotland,NicolaSturgeon,statedthatScotlandmightrefuseconsentforlegislation
requiredtoleavetheEU,[111]thoughsomelawyersarguethatScotlandcannotblockBrexit.[112]
NewlyappointedPMTheresaMaymadeitclearthatnegotiationswiththeEUrequireda"UKwideapproach".
On15July2016,shesaid:"IhavealreadysaidthatIwon'tbetriggeringarticle50untilIthinkthatwehavea
UKapproachandobjectivesfornegotiationsIthinkitisimportantthatweestablishthatbeforewetrigger
article50."[113]
AccordingtoTheDailyTelegraph,theDepartmentforExitingtheEuropeanUnionspentover250,000on
legaladvicefromtopGovernmentlawyersintwomonthsandhasplanstorecruitmorepeople.NickCleggsaid
thefiguresshowedtheCivilServicewasunpreparedfortheverycomplexnegotiationsahead.[114]
On17January2017,PrimeMinisterTheresaMay,announcedaseriesof12negotiatingobjectivesinaspeech
atLancasterHouse.TheseconsistofanendtoEuropeanCourtofJusticejurisdiction,withdrawalfromthe
singlemarketwitha"comprehensivefreetradeagreement"replacingthis,anewcustomsagreementexcluding
thecommonexternaltariffandcommoncommercialpolicy,anendtofreemovementofpeople,cooperation
incrimeandterrorism,collaborationinareasofscienceandtechnology,engagementwithdevolved
administrations,maintainingtheCommonTravelAreawithIreland,andpreservingexistingworkers'
rights.[115]
ConsequencesofwithdrawalfortheUnitedKingdom
RelationshipwithremainingEUmembers
AsamajorityofUKvoterssupported
leavingtheEU,itssubsequentrelationship
withtheremainingEUmemberscouldtake
severalforms.Aresearchpaperpresented
totheUKParliamentproposedanumberof
alternativestomembershipwhichwould
continuetoallowaccesstotheEUinternal
market.Theseincluderemaininginthe
EuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)asa
EuropeanFreeTradeAssociation(EFTA)
member(alongsideIceland,Liechtenstein,
NorwayandSwitzerland),orseekingto
negotiatebilateraltermsmorealongthe
Swissmodelwithaseriesofinterdependent
sectoralagreements.[116]Britainhasnot
negotiatedatradeagreementsincebefore
PoliticalsystemoftheEuropeanUnion
1973,andthegovernmentislookingtothe
privatesectorforassistance.[117]
WeretheUKtojointheEEAasanEFTAmember,itwouldhavetosignuptoEUinternalmarketlegislation
withoutbeingabletovoteonitscontent,althoughitwouldparticipateinitsdevelopment.[118]Indeed,theEUis
requiredtoconductextensiveconsultationswithnonEUmembersbeforehandviaitsmanycommitteesand
cooperativebodies.[119][120]SomeEUlaworiginatesfromvariousinternationalbodiesonwhichnonEUEEA
countrieshaveaseat.
TheEEAAgreement(EUandEFTAmembersexceptSwitzerland)doesnotcoverCommonAgricultureand
FisheriesPolicies,CustomsUnion,CommonTradePolicy,CommonForeignandSecurityPolicy,directand
indirecttaxation,andPoliceandJudicialCooperationinCriminalMatters,leavingEFTAmembersfreetoset
theirownpoliciesintheseareas[121]however,EEAcountriesarerequiredtocontributetotheEUBudgetin
exchangeforaccesstotheinternalmarket.[122][123]
UndertheEEAAgreement,theUKwouldnotbesubjecttoEuropeanCourtofJusticerulingsbutinsteadthe
EFTACourtwouldresolvedisputesbetweentheEU,EUMemberstates,andtheEFTAMemberStates.[118]
TheEEAAgreementandtheagreementwithSwitzerlandcoverfreemovementofgoods,andfreemovement
ofpeople.[124][125]ManysupportersofBrexitwanttorestrictfreedomofmovement[126]Liechtensteinhasade
factopermanentlimitonthefreemovementofpersons,thoughscholarsremarkthisisduetoitsstatusasa
microstate,andunlikelysomethingthatwouldbegrantedtomorepopulousstates.[127]Also,anEEA
AgreementwouldincludefreemovementforEUandEEAcitizens,aspassportsystemsallowEEAinstitutions
toaccessmarketsinEUMemberStates,forthemostpart,withouthavingtoestablishsubsidiariesineachEU
MemberStateandincurthecostsoffullauthorisationinthosejurisdiction.[128]OtherspresentideasofaSwiss
solution,thatistailormadeagreementsbetweentheUKandtheEU,butEUrepresentativeshaveclaimedthey
wouldnotsupportsuchasolution.[129]TheSwissagreementscontainfreemovementforEUcitizens.[130](The
Swissimmigrationreferendum,February2014votednarrowlyinfavourofanendtothe'freemovement'
agreement,byFebruary2017.However,thebilateraltreatiesbetweenSwitzerlandandtheEuropeanUnionare
allcodependent:ifoneisterminatedthenallareterminated.Consequently,shouldSwitzerlandchoose
unilaterallytocancelthe'freemovement'agreementthenallitsagreementswiththeEUwilllapseunlessa
compromiseisfound,compromisereachedinDecember2016).[131]
SeveralthousandBritishcitizensresidentinotherEUcountrieshaveafterthereferendumappliedfor
citizenshipwheretheylive,sincetheyfearlosingtherighttoworkthere.[132]
QuestionshavebeenraisedastowhetherastatethatwithdrawsfromtheEUautomaticallywithdrawsfromthe
EEAorwhethersuchawithdrawalrequiresnoticeunderArticle127oftheEEAAgreement[133]and,ifthe
courtssodecide,whethersuchnoticegivenbytheUKwouldrequireanactofparliament.[134]
Immigration
AConservativeMEPrepresentingSouthEastEngland,DanielHannan,predictedonBBCNewsnightthat
immigrationfromtheEuropeanUnionwouldnotendafterBrexit:[135]"Frankly,ifpeoplewatchingthinkthat
theyhavevotedandthereisnowgoingtobezeroimmigrationfromtheEU,theyaregoingtobedisappointed.
...youwilllookinvainforanythingthattheLeavecampaignsaidatanypointthateversuggestedtherewould
everbeanykindofborderclosureordrawingupofthedrawbridge."[136]
InlateJuly2016,discussionswereunderwaythatmightprovidetheUKwithanexemptionfromtheEUrules
onrefugees'freedomofmovementforuptosevenyears.SeniorUKgovernmentsourcesconfirmedtoThe
Observerthatthiswas"certainlyoneoftheideasnowonthetable".[137]Ifthediscussionsledtoanagreement,
theUKthoughnotanEUmemberwouldalsoretainaccesstothesinglemarketbutwouldberequiredto
payasignificantannualcontributiontotheEU.AccordingtoTheDailyTelegraphthenewsofthispossibility
causedariftintheConservativeParty:"ToryMPshavereactedwithfury....[accusingEuropeanleadersof]...
failingtoacceptthepublic'sdecisiontosevertieswiththe28memberbloclastmonth."[138]
AccordingtoCEPanalysisofLabourForceSurvey,immigrantsintheUKareonaveragemoreeducatedthan
UKborncitizens.CitizensintheUKareconcernedthatimmigrantsaretakingovertheirjobssincemost
immigrantsarehighlyeducated,however,theyareactuallyhelpingtheeconomybecausetheytooconsume
goods,andproducejobs.[139]AlthoughimmigrantstotheUKhelptomitigatethenegativeeffectsoftheageing
Britishlabourforceandarebelievedtohaveanoverallnetpositivefiscaleffect,immigrationdoesalsohavea
dampeningeffectonwagesduetothegreatersupplyoflabour.[140]TheresaMaybelievesthatifimmigration
stopstherewillbenonegotiationbetweentheUKandtheEU.[141]WhiletheprocessofdealingwithBrexit
continuestherewillbehighersecurityfromtheUKinregulatingwhoenterstheUK,allofthistoavoidnew
immigrantsfromstayingintheUK.[142]However,forecastsindicatethatimmigrationowstotheUKwill
remainrelativelyhighafterBrexit.[143]
Economiceffects
Priortothereferendum,theUKtreasuryestimatedthatbeingintheEUhasastrongpositiveeffectontradeand
asaresulttheUK'stradewouldbeworseoffifitlefttheEU.[144]
SupportersofwithdrawalfromtheEUhavearguedthatthecessationofnetcontributionstotheEUwould
allowforsomecutstotaxesorincreasesingovernmentspending.[145]However,Britainwouldstillberequired
tomakecontributionstotheEUbudgetifitoptedtoremainintheEuropeanFreeTradeArea.[122]TheInstitute
forFiscalStudiesnotesthatthemajorityofforecastsoftheimpactofBrexitontheUKeconomyindicatethat
thegovernmentwouldbeleftwithlessmoneytospendevenifitnolongerhadtopayintotheEU.[146]
On15June2016,VoteLeave,theofficialLeavecampaign,presenteditsroadmaptolayoutwhatwould
happenifBritainlefttheEU.[147]TheblueprintsuggestedthatParliamentwouldpasslaws:FinanceBillto
scrapVATontamponsandhouseholdenergybillsAsylumandImmigrationControlBilltoendtheautomatic
rightofEUcitizenstoenterBritainNationalHealthService(FundingTarget)Billtogetanextra100million
poundsaweekEuropeanUnionLaw(EmergencyProvisions)BillFreeTradeBilltostarttonegotiateitsown
dealswithnonEUcountriesandEuropeanCommunitiesAct1972(Repeal)BilltoendtheEuropeanCourtof
Justice'sjurisdictionoverBritainandstopmakingcontributionstotheEUbudget.[147]
EuropeanexpertsfromtheWorldPensionsCouncil(WPC)andtheUniversityofBathhavearguedthat,beyond
shortlivedmarketvolatility,thelongtermeconomicprospectsofBritainremainhigh,notablyintermsof
countryattractivenessandforeigndirectinvestment(FDI):"Countryriskexpertswespoketoareconfidentthe
UK'seconomywillremainrobustintheeventofanexitfromtheEU.'TheeconomicattractivenessofBritain
willnotgodownandatradewarwithLondonisinnoone'sinterest,'saysMNicolasFirzli,directorgeneralof
theWorldPensionsCouncil(WPC)andadvisoryboardmemberfortheWorldBankGlobalInfrastructure
Facility[...]BruceMorley,lecturerineconomicsattheUniversityofBath,goesfurthertosuggestthatthe
longtermbenefitstotheUKofleavingtheUnion,suchaslessregulationandmorecontroloverBritain'strade
policy,couldoutweightheshorttermuncertaintyobservedinthe[countryrisk]scores."[148]Themooted
importanceoftheUK'smembershipoftheEUasalureforForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)haslongbeen
stressedbysupportersoftheUK'scontinuedinvolvementintheEU.Inthisview,foreignfirmsseetheUKasa
gatewaytootherEUmarkets,withtheUKeconomybenefitingfromitsresultingattractivenessasalocation
foractivity.TheUKiscertainlyamajorrecipientofFDI.In2014,itheldthesecondlargeststockofinward
investmentintheworld,amountingtojustover1trillionoralmost7%oftheglobaltotal.Thiswasmorethan
doublethe3%accountedforbyGermanyandFrance.Onapercapitabasis,theUKistheclearfrontrunner
amongmajoreconomieswithastockofFDIaroundthreetimeslargerthanthelevelinothermajorEuropean
economiesand50%largerthanintheUS.
On10AugusttheInstituteforFiscalStudiespublishedareportfundedbytheEconomicandSocialResearch
CouncilwhichwarnedthatBritainfacedsomeverydifficultchoicesasitcouldn'tretainthebenefitsoffullEU
membershipwhilstrestrictingEUmigration.TheIFSclaimedthecostofreducedeconomicgrowthwouldcost
theUKaround70billion,morethanthe8billionsavingsinmembershipfees.Itdidnotexpectnewtrade
dealstomakeupthedifference.[149]
On5January2017,AndyHaldane,theChiefEconomistandtheExecutiveDirectorofMonetaryAnalysisand
StatisticsattheBankofEngland,admittedthatforecastspredictinganeconomicdownturnduetothe
referendumwereinaccurateandnotedstrongmarketperformanceafterthereferendum.[150][151][152]
Financialservices
On4October2016,theFinancialTimesassessedthepotentialeffectofBrexitonbanking.TheCityofLondon
isworldleadinginfinancialservices,especiallyincurrencytransactionsincludingforeignexchangeofeuros.
ThispositionisenabledbytheEUwide"passporting"agreementforfinancialproducts.Shouldthepassporting
agreementexpireintheeventofaBrexit,theBritishfinancialserviceindustrymightloseupto35,000ofits1
millionjobs,andtheTreasurymightlose5billionpoundsannuallyintaxrevenue.Indirecteffectscould
increasethesenumbersto71,000joblossesand10billionpoundsoftaxannually.Thelatterwouldcorrespond
toabout2%ofannualBritishtaxrevenue.[153]
ByJuly2016theSenateofBerlinhadsentinvitationlettersencouragingUKbasedstartupstorelocateto
Berlin.[154]AccordingtoAnthonyBrowneoftheBritishBankingAssociation,manymajorandminorbanks
mayrelocateoutsidetheUK.[155]
Academicfunding
UKuniversitiesrelyontheEUforaround16%oftheirtotalresearchfunding,andaredisproportionately
successfulatwinningEUawardedresearchgrants.Thishasraisedquestionsabouthowsuchfundingwouldbe
impactedbyaBritishexit.[156][157]JamieLVernonsaysthatabout1billionofBritain'sscientificdiscoveryhas
beenpaidforbyEuropeanfundingprogrammeseveryyearandthattheseresourceswillnowbecalledinto
question."EUofficialsarecallingforanimmediateseparation,andBritishacademicsarealreadybeingasked
towithdrawfromEUfundedprojectsortoresignfromleadershiproles".[158]StGeorge's,Universityof
LondonprofessorandUKIPcampaignerAngusDalgleishpointedoutthatBritainpaidmuchmoreintotheEU
researchbudgetthanitreceived,andthatexistingEuropeancollaborationssuchasCERNandtheEuropean
MolecularBiologyLaboratory(EMBL)beganlongbeforetheLisbonTreaty,addingthatleavingtheEUwould
notdamageBritain'sscience.[159]LondonSchoolofEconomicsemeritusprofessor(andfounderofUKIP)Alan
SkedpointedoutthatnonEUcountriessuchasIsraelandSwitzerlandsignedagreementswiththeEUinterms
ofthefundingofcollaborativeresearchandprojects.HealsosuggestedthatifBritainlefttheEU,Britain
wouldbeabletoreachasimilaragreementwiththeEU,andsaidthateducatedpeopleandresearchbodies
wouldeasilyfindsomefinancialarrangementduringanatleast2yeartransitionperiodwhichwasrelatedto
Article50oftheTreatyofEuropeanUnion(TEU).[160]TheUKgovernmentpromisedthatamajortypeofEU
researchgrant,Horizon2020funding,willbefundedbytheUKfortheirremainingdurationafterEUexitfor
UKresearchers.[161]AJuly2016investigationbyTheGuardiansuggestedalargenumberofresearchprojects
inawiderangeoffieldshadbeenhitafterthereferendumresult.TheyreportedthatEuropeanpartnerswere
reluctanttoemployBritishresearchersduetouncertaintiesoverfunding.[162]
Scotland,NorthernIreland,London,andGibraltar
TheconstitutionallawyerandretiredGermanSupremeCourtjudgeUdoDiFabiohasstatedthatseparate
negotiationsoftheEUinstitutionswithLondon,ScotlandorNorthernIrelandwouldconstituteaviolationof
theLisbonTreaty,accordingtowhichtheintegrityofamembercountryisexplicitlyputunderprotection.[163]
Beforethereferendum,leadingfigureswitharangeofopinionsregardingScottishindependencesuggestedthat
intheeventtheUKasawholevotedtoleavetheEUbutScotlandasawholevotedtoremain,asecond
Scottishindependencereferendummightbeprecipitated.[164][165]FormerLabourScottishFirstMinisterHenry
McLeishassertedthathewouldsupportScottishindependenceundersuchcircumstances.[166]In2013,
ScotlandexportedaroundthreeandahalftimesmoretotherestoftheUKthantotherestoftheEU.[167]The
prounionorganisationScotlandinUnionhassuggestedthatanindependentScotlandwithintheEUwouldface
tradebarrierswithapostBrexitUKandfaceadditionalcostsforreentrytotheEU.[167]
ThemajorityofthoselivinginLondonandGreaterLondonvotedfortheUKtoremainintheEU.Scottish
FirstMinisterNicolaSturgeonsaidshehadspokentoLondonMayorSadiqKhanaboutthepossibilityof
remainingintheEUandsaidhesharedthatobjectiveforLondon.ApetitioncallingonKhantodeclare
LondonindependentfromtheUKreceivedtensofthousandsofsignatures.[168][169]SupportersofLondon's
independencearguedthatLondonshouldbecomeacitystatesimilartoSingapore,whileremainingwithinthe
EU.[170][171][172]Khanadmittedthatcompleteindependencewasunrealistic,butdemandeddevolvingmore
powersandautonomyforLondon.[173]
In2015,ChiefMinisterofGibraltarFabianPicardosuggestedthatGibraltarwouldattempttoremainpartof
theEUintheeventtheUKvotedtoleave,[174]butreaffirmedthat,regardlessoftheresult,theterritorywould
remainBritish.[175]InalettertotheUKForeignAffairsSelectCommittee,herequestedthatGibraltarbe
consideredinnegotiationspostBrexit.[176]Spain'sforeignministerJosGarcaMargallosaidSpainwould
seektalksonGibraltar,whosestatusisdisputed,the"verynextday"afteraBritishexitfromtheEU.[177]
BorderswiththeRepublicofIrelandandFrance
TheRepublicofIreland,NorthernIrelandandtheUnitedKingdomasawholeshare,sincethe1920s,a
CommonTravelAreawithoutbordercontrols.AccordingtostatementsbyTheresaMayandEndaKenny,itis
intendedtomaintainthisarrangement.[178]AfterBrexit,inordertopreventillegalmigrationacrosstheopen
NorthernIrishborderintotheUnitedKingdom,theIrishandBritishgovernmentssuggestedinOctober2016a
planwherebyBritishbordercontrolswouldbeappliedtoIrishportsandairports.Thiswouldpreventa"hard
border"arisingbetweentheRepublicofIrelandandNorthernIreland.[179]However,thisagreementhasnot
beenofficiallyratifiedandhasmetoppositionbypoliticalpartiesintheRepublicofIreland[180]andthereis
stillgreatuncertaintyinrelationtoa'hardborder'betweentheRepublicandNorthernIreland.Areferendum
forthereunificationofIrelandwassuggestedbySinnFinleaderMartinMcGuinnessimmediatelyafterthe
UKEUreferendumresultswereannounced.[181]TheEUhaverecentlyimprovedbordersbetweenEUandnon
EUcountriesduetotherecentrefugeecrisisandifthesebordersweretobeimposeduponIrelanditcould
disruptthecrossborderrelationshipthatexistsatthemoment.Creatingabordercontrolsystembetween
IrelandandNorthernIrelandcouldjeopardisetheGoodFridayAgreementestablishedin1998.[182]
TheMayorofSaintQuentin,XavierBertrand,statedinFebruary2016that"IfBritainleavesEurope,right
awaytheborderwillleaveCalaisandgotoDover.WewillnotcontinuetoguardtheborderforBritainifit'sno
longerintheEuropeanUnion,"indicatingthatthejuxtaposedcontrolswouldendwithaleavevote.French
FinanceMinisterEmmanuelMacronalsosuggestedtheagreementwouldbe"threatened"byaleavevote.[183]
Theseclaimshavebeendisputed,astheLeTouquet2003treatyenablingjuxtaposedcontrolswasnotanEU
treaty,andwouldnotbelegallyvoiduponleaving.[184]
AftertheBrexitvote,XavierBertrandaskedFranoisHollandetorenegotiatetheTouquetagreement,[185]
whichcanbeterminatedbyeitherpartywithtwoyears'notice.[186]Hollanderejectedthesuggestion,andsaid:
"CallingintoquestiontheTouquetdealonthepretextthatBritainhasvotedforBrexitandwillhavetostart
negotiationstoleavetheUniondoesn'tmakesense."BernardCazeneuve,theFrenchInteriorMinister,
confirmedtherewouldbe"nochangestotheaccord".Hesaid:"TheborderatCalaisisclosedandwillremain
so."[187]
ConsequencesofwithdrawalfortheEU
Shortlyafterthereferendum,theGermanparliamentpublishedananalysisontheconsequencesofaBrexiton
theEUandspecificallyontheeconomicandpoliticalsituationofGermany.[188]Accordingtothis,Britainis,
aftertheUnitedStatesandFrance,thethirdmostimportantexportmarketforGermanproducts.Intotal
GermanyexportsgoodsandservicestoBritainworthabout120billioneurosannually,whichisabout8%of
Germanexports,withGermanyachievingatradesurpluswithBritainworth36.3billioneuros(2014).Shoulda
"hardBrexit"cometopass,theGermanexportswouldbesubjecttoWTOcustomsandtariffs,whichwould
particularlyaffectGermancarexports,wheredutiesofabout10%wouldhavetobepaidtoBritain.Intotal,
750,000jobsinGermanydependuponexporttoBritain,whileontheBritishsideabout3millionjobsdepend
onexporttotheEU.ThestudyemphasiseshoweverthatthepredictionsontheeconomiceffectsofaBrexitare
subjecttosignificantuncertainty.
AccordingtotheLisbonTreaty(2009),EUCouncildecisionsmadebyqualifiedmajorityvotingcanonlybe
blockedifatleast4membersoftheCouncilformablockingminority.Thisrulewasoriginallydevelopedto
preventthethreemostpopulousmembers(Germany,France,Britain)fromdominatingtheEUCouncil.[189]
However,afteraBrexitoftheeconomicallyliberalBritish,theGermansandlikemindednorthernEuropean
countries(theDutch,ScandinaviansandBalts)wouldloseanallyandthereforealsotheirblocking
minority.[190]Withoutthisblockingminority,otherEUstatescouldoverruleGermanyanditsalliesinquestions
ofEUbudgetdisciplineortherecruitmentofGermanbankstoguaranteedepositsintroubledsouthern
Europeanbanks.[191]
WithBrexittheEUwouldloseitssecondlargesteconomy,thecountrywiththethirdlargestpopulationandthe
financialcentreoftheworld.[192]Furthermore,theEUwouldloseitssecondlargestnetcontributortotheEU
budget(2015:Germany14.3billioneuros,UnitedKingdom11.5billioneuros,France5.5billioneuros).[193]
Thus,thedepartureofBritainwouldresultinanadditionalfinancialburdenfortheremainingnetcontributors:
Germanyforexamplewouldhavetopayanadditional4.5billioneurosfor2019andagainfor2020.In
additiontheUKwouldnolongerbeashareholderintheEuropeanInvestmentBank,inwhichonlyEU
memberscanparticipate.Britain'sshareamountsto16%whichBritainwouldwithdrawunlessthereisanEU
treatychange.[194]AfteraBrexit,theEUwouldloseitsstrongestmilitarypowerincludingtheBritishnuclear
shield,andoneofonlytwomembersthatpossessnuclearweaponsandhaveavetointheSecurityCouncilof
theUnitedNations.
AreportbyTimOliveroftheGermanInstituteforInternationalandSecurityAffairsexpandedanalysisofwhat
aBritishwithdrawalcouldmeanfortheEU:thereportarguesaUKwithdrawal"hasthepotentialto
fundamentallychangetheEUandEuropeanintegration.Ontheonehand,awithdrawalcouldtiptheEU
towardsprotectionism,exacerbateexistingdivisions,orunleashcentrifugalforcesleadingtotheEU's
unravelling.Alternatively,theEUcouldfreeitselfofitsmostawkwardmember,makingtheEUeasiertolead
andmoreeffective."[195]SomeauthorsalsohighlightthequalitativechangeinthenatureoftheEUmembership
afterBrexit:"WhattheUKcasehasclearlyshowninourviewisthatfortheUniontobesustainable,
membershipneedstoentailconstantcaretakingasfarasindividualmembers'contributionstothecommon
goodareconcerned,withbothrightsandobligations."[196]
Asof15November2016thePresidentoftheEuropeanParliamentisconsideringmovestoexcludeBritish
MEPsfromkeycommitteepositionsaheadoftheexittalks.ThePresidenthaswrittentotheheadofthe
conferenceofcommitteechairsaskinghimtogatherinformationonhowBritain'simminentdeparturewill
impactvariousEUdocumentspassingthroughtheparliament'scommittees.Amongtheissuesthatshouldbe
considered,theletterstates,arethepossibleimpactoftheBritishdepartureonthelegislativefilescurrently
underdiscussioninvariouscommittees,theimpactifthefilesarenotconcludedbeforeBritainleaves,and
whetheranyofthefilesarelikelytofeatureintheEUUKwithdrawalagreement.[197]
TherehasbeendebateaboutwhetherothermemberstateswillseektofollowBritain'sexampleinleavingthe
EuropeanUnion.HoweverithasbeenarguedthatmostmemberstateshaveagreaterdependenceontheEU
thanBritain,andthattheeconomiesofmanyofthesmallercountrieswouldstrugglegreatlytosurviveoutside
oftheEU.[196]
Seealso
Brexit,Article50,andotherarticlesWikipediabook
InterpretationofEUTreatylawbyEuropeanCourtofJustice
MultispeedEurope
ReferendumsrelatedtotheEuropeanUnion
CausesofBrexit
Frexit
DutchwithdrawalfromtheEuropeanUnion
Notes
a.GreenlandlefttheEUin1985,priortotheintroductionofArticle50,andasanautonomouscountrywithinthe
DanishRealm,notasasovereignmemberstate.
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195.Oliver,TimL."EuropewithoutBritain".StiftungWissenschaftundPolitik.Retrieved23June2016.
196.Torres,Francisco."ThePoliticalEconomyofBrexit:WhyMakingItEasiertoLeavetheClubCouldImprovethe
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197."EuropeanParliamentmovestosidelineBritishMEPs".TheIrishTimes.Retrieved15November2016.
Furtherreading
Abbott,LewisF.BritishWithdrawalfromtheEuropeanUnion:AGuidetotheCaseFor.ISR/Google
Books,2013.[10](https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5ctoiv7JIWYC&source=gbs_book_other_versio
ns)
Hobolt,SaraB.(7September2016)."TheBrexitvote:adividednation,adividedcontinent".Journalof
EuropeanPublicPolicy.23(9):12591277.doi:10.1080/13501763.2016.1225785.ISSN13501763.
Peers,Steve(2016).TheBrexit:TheLegalFrameworkforWithdrawalfromtheEUorRenegotiationof
EUMembership.Oxford,UK:HartPublishing.ISBN9781849468749.OCLC917161408.
Ansorg,N.&Haastrup,T.:"BrexitBeyondtheUK'sBorders:WhatItMeansforAfrica",GIGAFocus
AfrikaNo.03/2016(https://www.gigahamburg.de/en/publication/brexitbeyondtheuksborderswhatit
meansforafrica)
Howe,MartinHowtoLeavetheEU:LegalandTradePrioritiesfortheNewBritain,Politeia,2016.
Doane,D.(26June2016)."Brexitwasabacklashagainstglobalisationthepoorestarebeingleftbehind
everywhere"(https://www.theguardian.com/globaldevelopmentprofessionalsnetwork/2016/jun/26/brex
itwasabacklashagainstglobalisationthepoorestarebeingleftbehindeverywhere?CMP=share_btn_l
ink).theguardian.Retrieved18December2016.
Externallinks
PlanforBritain:Thegovernment'snegotiatingobjectivesfor
Wikisourcehasoriginal
exitingtheEU:PM'sspeechdeliveredandpublishedon17
textrelatedtothisarticle:
January2017(Transcriptofthespeech,exactlyasitwas Thewithdrawalclause
deliveredatLancesterHouse,London)(https://www.gov.uk/gover
nment/speeches/thegovernmentsnegotiatingobjectivesforexiti
LookupBrexitin
ngtheeupmspeech%7C) Wiktionary,thefree
Brexit(https://www.dmoz.org/Regional/Europe/United_Kingdo dictionary.
m/Society_and_Culture/Issues/European_Union/Brexit)at
DMOZ
GovUKDepartmentforExitingtheEuropeanUnion(http://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/de
partmentforexitingtheeuropeanunion)
TheBrexitPapers,BarCouncil,December2016(http://www.barcouncil.org.uk/media/508513/the_brexit
_papers.pdf)
BBC:"Brexit:Whataretheoptions?"(10October2016)(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ukpolitics375071
29)
SkeletonArgumentoftheSecretaryofStateforExitingtheEU,andnamesofallpartiesinjudicial
review,forhearinginHighCourt,13and17October2016(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/syst
em/uploads/attachment_data/file/558592/Miller_v_SSExEU__Skeleton_Argument_of_the_Secretary_of
_State_300916.pdf)
TranscriptsofHighCourthearinginOctober2016,SantosandMvSecretaryofState(https://www.jud
iciary.gov.uk/publications/santosandmvsecretaryofstateforexitingtheeuropeanuniontranscripts/)
SummaryofjudgmentinN.IHighCourt,28October2016,dismissingapplicationsforjudicialreview.
(http://www.courtsni.gov.uk/enGB/Judicial%20Decisions/SummaryJudgments/Documents/Court%20dis
misses%20Brexit%20challenge/j_j_Summary%20of%20judgment%20%20Brexit%20JRs%2028%20Oc
t%2016.htm)
SupremeCourt:Article50'Brexit'case,58December2016(https://www.supremecourt.uk/news/access
tosupremecourtbuildingarticle50brexitcase.html)
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EuroscepticismintheUnitedKingdom WithdrawalfromtheEuropeanUnion Wordscoinedinthe2010s
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