Fecha Dt St(nivel) Gt(tendencia) ft et

2908.22 -4.106666667
1 2927.91 2923.89052 12.4837922405 2904.11333 -23.7966667
2 2927.91 2929.3397 6.5826769103 2936.37432 8.46431526
3 2927.91 2929.26336 0.9966412743 2935.92238 8.012378
4 2908.53 2912.2004 -14.1529919259 2930.26001 21.730006
5 2932.01 2926.2734 9.5249043131 2898.04741 -33.962593
6 2927.53 2928.92659 3.7604402177 2935.79831 8.26830839
7 2936.72 2936.03879 6.5721263519 2932.68703 -4.03296606
8 2930.17 2932.27139 -2.1013821361 2942.61092 12.4409211
9 2930.17 2930.17 -2.101385235 2930.17 4.4449E-006
10 2930.17 2929.81506 -0.6363509333 2928.06862 -2.10138448
11 2936.66 2935.39634 4.579425953 2929.17871 -7.4812942
12 2921.9 2924.95316 -8.0225598892 2939.97577 18.0757662
13 2906.78 2908.49453 -15.0993149189 2916.9306 10.1506041
14 2882.2 2884.09098 -22.9043479851 2893.39522 11.195216
15 2855.8 2856.70985 -26.6597740333 2861.18663 5.38662748
16 2855.8 2851.4506 -8.7075522789 2830.05008 -25.7499229
17 2855.8 2853.59456 0.395438212 2842.74305 -13.0569523
18 2853.99 2853.99 0.3954394188 2853.99 -1.731E-006
19 2854.38544
20 2854.78088
21 2855.17632
22 2855.57176
 Gt=-4,648
MAD 11.1828977 St=2952,4
RECM 0.35875747
MAPE 373.710994
Chart Title
2960
Alpha 1
2940 f(x) = - 4.6480082559x + 2952.3760784314
Beta 0.83886837
2920

2900

2880

2860

2840

2820

2800
2960 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2940 Chart Title

f(x) = - 5.0851715686x + 2952.8283088235
2920
2900
2880
2860
2840
2820
2800
2780
2760
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Column B Linear (Column B) Column E

 Chart Title

59x + 2952.3760784314

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

14 15 16 17

Column E
 MAD
Fecha Dt Ft Et RECM
1 2927.91 2908.22 MAPE
2 2927.91 2927.91 0
3 2927.91 2927.91 0
4 2908.53 2927.91 19.38
5 2932.01 2908.53 -23.48 ALPHA
6 2927.53 2932.01 4.48
7 2936.72 2927.53 -9.19
8 2930.17 2936.72 6.55
9 2930.17 2930.17 0
10 2930.17 2930.17 0
11 2936.66 2930.17 -6.49
12 2921.9 2936.66 14.76
13 2906.78 2921.9 15.12
14 2882.2 2906.78 24.58
15 2855.8 2882.2 26.4
16 2855.8 2855.8 0
17 2855.8 2855.8 0
18 2853.99 2855.8 1.81
19 2853.99
8.95529412
12.987162
#VALUE!

1
Fecha Dt Ft Et MAD
1 2927.91 RECM
2 2927.91 MAPE
3 2927.91
4 2908.53 2927.91 19.38
5 2932.01 2918.22 -13.79
6 2927.53 2924.146 -3.384 A1
7 2936.72 2925.074 -11.646 A2
8 2930.17 2933.021 2.851 A3
9 2930.17 2931.607 1.437
10 2930.17 2931.48 1.31
11 2936.66 2930.17 -6.49
12 2921.9 2933.415 11.515
13 2906.78 2927.982 21.202
14 2882.2 2917.292 35.092
15 2855.8 2897.514 41.714
16 2855.8 2873.916 18.116
17 2855.8 2861.08 5.28
18 2853.99 2855.8 1.81
2854.895
13.001133333
8.2931333333
Chart Title
2960
2940
2920
2900
0.5
2880
0.3
2860
0.2
2840
2820
2800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Dt Ft
Title

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Ft
Fecha Dt Ft Et
1 2927.91
2 2927.91
3 2927.91 2927.91 0
4 2908.53 2927.91 19.38
5 2932.01 2918.22 -13.79 C
6 2927.53 2920.27 -7.26
2960
7 2936.72 2929.77 -6.95
2940
8 2930.17 2932.125 1.955
9 2930.17 2933.445 3.275 2920

10 2930.17 2930.17 0 2900

11 2936.66 2930.17 -6.49 2880

12 2921.9 2933.415 11.515 2860

13 2906.78 2929.28 22.5 2840
14 2882.2 2914.34 32.14 2820
15 2855.8 2894.49 38.69 2800
16 2855.8 2869 13.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

17 2855.8 2855.8 0
18 2853.99 2855.8 1.81
19 2854.895
 MAD 11.1846875
RECM 15.9485175
MAPE 0.39%

Chart Title
960
940
920
900
880
860
840
820
800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Dt Ft
Fecha Dt Ft Et
1 2927.91
2 2927.91
3 2927.91
4 2908.53 2927.91 19.38
5 2932.01 2921.45 -10.56
6 2927.53 2922.81667 -4.71333333
7 2936.72 2922.69 -14.03
8 2930.17 2932.08667 1.91666667
9 2930.17 2931.47333 1.30333333
10 2930.17 2932.35333 2.18333333
11 2936.66 2930.17 -6.49
12 2921.9 2932.33333 10.4333333
13 2906.78 2929.57667 22.7966667
14 2882.2 2921.78 39.58
15 2855.8 2903.62667 47.8266667
16 2855.8 2881.59333 25.7933333
17 2855.8 2864.6 8.8
18 2853.99 2855.8 1.81
MAD 14.507777778
RECM 19.978212781
MAPE 0.50%

DtTitle
Chart
2960
2960
2940
2920
2920
2900
2900
2880
2880
2860
2860
2840
2820
2840
2800
2820
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2800
0 2 4 6 8 Dt 10 Ft 12 14 16 18 20
 15 16 17 18

16 18 20
Fecha Dt Ft et LI LS
1 2927.91 2947.752 19.842 2927.910 2967.594
2 2927.91 2943.104 15.194 2923.262 2962.946
3 2927.91 2938.456 10.546 2918.614 2958.298
4 2908.53 2933.808 25.278 2913.966 2953.650
5 2932.01 2929.16 -2.85 2909.318 2949.002
6 2927.53 2924.512 -3.018 2904.670 2944.354
7 2936.72 2919.864 -16.856 2900.022 2939.706
8 2930.17 2915.216 -14.954 2895.374 2935.058
9 2930.17 2910.568 -19.602 2890.726 2930.410
10 2930.17 2905.92 -24.25 2886.078 2925.762
11 2936.66 2901.272 -35.388 2881.430 2921.114
12 2921.9 2896.624 -25.276 2876.782 2916.466
13 2906.78 2891.976 -14.804 2872.134 2911.818
14 2882.2 2887.328 5.128 2867.486 2907.170
15 2855.8 2882.68 26.88 2862.838 2902.522
16 2855.8 2878.032 22.232 2858.190 2897.874
17 2855.8 2873.384 17.584 2853.542 2893.226
18 2853.99 2868.736 14.746 2848.894 2888.578
19 2864.088 2844.246 2883.930
20 2859.44 2839.598 2879.282
21 2854.792 2834.950 2874.634
22 2850.144 2830.302 2869.986
metodos cualitativos para que no

tarea amarrar el medelo y recalcular fd

 MAD 19.842 por encimo y por debajo
RECM 15.194 por encimo y por debajo
MAPE 0.36% porcentual
promedio 0.024 no tiene ningun sentido

Dt

f(x) = - 4.6480082559x + 2952.3760784314

R = 0.6078742266
Dt
Linear (Dt)

0.024
Futuro

odos cualitativos para que no bajen las ventas habblar con el grupo o departamento para fijar el pronostico

limites de confianza del pronostico

Dt Ft LI LS
 mas o menos
mas o menos miramos el modelo mas adecuado

Dt
Linear (Dt)

amento para fijar el pronostico

pronostico

LS
lo mas adecuado
Fecha Dt Ft et LI LS
1 2927.91 2919.5115 8.3985 2911.113 2927.910
2 2927.91 2924.434 3.476 2916.036 2932.833
3 2927.91 2928.5071 -0.5971 2920.109 2936.906
4 2908.53 2931.7704 -23.2404 2923.372 2940.169
5 2932.01 2934.2635 -2.2535 2925.865 2942.662
6 2927.53 2936.026 -8.496 2927.628 2944.425
7 2936.72 2937.0975 -0.3775 2928.699 2945.496
8 2930.17 2937.5176 -7.3476 2929.119 2945.916
9 2930.17 2937.3259 -7.1559 2928.927 2945.724
10 2930.17 2936.562 -6.392 2928.164 2944.961
11 2936.66 2935.2655 1.3945 2926.867 2943.664
12 2921.9 2933.476 -11.576 2925.078 2941.875
13 2906.78 2931.2331 -24.4531 2922.835 2939.632
14 2882.2 2928.5764 -46.3764 2920.178 2936.975
15 2855.8 2925.5455 -69.7455 2917.147 2933.944
16 2855.8 2922.18 -66.38 2913.782 2930.579
17 2855.8 2918.5195 -62.7195 2910.121 2926.918
18 2853.99 2914.6036 -60.6136 2906.205 2923.002
19 2910.4719 2902.073 2918.870
20 2906.164 2897.766 2914.563
21 2901.7195 2893.321 2910.118
22 2897.178 2888.780 2905.577
metodos cualitativos para que no

tarea amarrar el medelo y recalcular fd

 MAD 8.3985 por encimo y por debajo
RECM 33.8376032 por encimo y por debajo
MAPE 0.79% porcentual
promedio -21.3586167 no tiene ningun sentido

DT

f(x) = - 0.0065687708x^3 - 0.4643012556x^2 + 6.2691534801x + 2913.7346405229

R = 0.8631887638

-21.3586167
Futuro

odos cualitativos para que no bajen las ventas habblar con el grupo o departamento para fijar el pronostico

Limites de confianza del pronostico

Dt Ft LI LS
 mas o menos y = 2952,8e-0,002x
mas o menos miramos el m R = 0,6083

34801x + 2913.7346405229

amento para fijar el pronostico

ostico
2952,8e-0,002x
Fecha Dt Ft et LI LS
1 2927.91 2955.3 27.39 2927.905 2982.695
2 2927.91 2948.29804 20.3880423 2920.903 2986.294
3 2927.91 2944.20216 16.2921596 2916.807 2944.212
4 2908.53 2941.29608 32.7660846 2913.901 2967.951
5 2932.01 2939.04196 7.0319577 2911.647 2939.042
6 2927.53 2937.2002 9.67020192 2909.806 2937.200
7 2936.72 2935.64302 -1.07698041 2908.248 2935.643
8 2930.17 2934.29413 4.1241269 2906.899 2934.294
9 2930.17 2933.10432 2.93431923 2905.710 2933.104
10 2930.17 2932.04 1.87 2904.645 2932.040
11 2936.66 2931.07721 -5.58279386 2903.683 2931.077
12 2921.9 2930.19824 8.29824422 2902.804 2930.198
13 2906.78 2929.38968 22.6096776 2901.995 2929.390
14 2882.2 2928.64106 46.4410619 2901.246 2928.641
15 2855.8 2927.94412 72.1441173 2900.549 2927.944
16 2855.8 2927.29217 71.4921692 2899.897 2927.292
17 2855.8 2926.67976 70.8797581 2899.285 2926.680
18 2853.99 2926.10236 72.1123615 2898.708 2926.102
19 2925.55619 2898.162 2925.556
20 2925.03804 2897.643 2925.038
21 2924.54518 2897.151 2924.545
22 2924.07525 2896.681 2924.075
metodos cualitativos para que no

tarea amarrar el medelo y recalcular fd

 MAD 27.3946698 por encimo y por debajo
RECM 37.9957649 por encimo y por debajo
MAPE 0.95% porcentual
promedio 26.6546949 no tiene ningun sentido

DT

f(x) = -23.262173586 ln(x) + 2955.2553980094

R = 0.3434892775

26.6546949
Futuro

odos cualitativos para que no bajen las ventas habblar con el grupo o departamento para fijar el pronostico

Limites de confianza del pr

Dt Ft LI
 mas o menos
mas o menos miramos el modelo mas adecuado

DT

86 ln(x) + 2955.2553980094
5

amento para fijar el pronostico

mites de confianza del pronostico

Dt Ft LI LS
lo mas adecuado
Fecha Dt Ft et LI LS
1 2927.91 2955.7 -27.79 2927.910 2983.490
2 2927.91 2939.35548 -11.4454775 2927.910 2950.801
3 2927.91 2929.83648 -1.92647569 2929.836 2929.837
4 2908.53 2923.10134 -14.5713375 2923.212 2922.991
5 2932.01 2917.88782 14.1221773 2917.888 2917.888
6 2927.53 2913.63497 13.8950258 2913.635 2913.635
7 2936.72 2910.04408 26.6759217 2910.044 2910.044
8 2930.17 2906.93708 23.2329198 2906.937 2906.937
9 2930.17 2904.19927 25.9707327 2904.199 2904.199
10 2930.17 2901.7524 28.4176048 2901.752 2901.752
11 2936.66 2899.54071 37.1192939 2899.541 2899.541
12 2921.9 2897.52306 24.3769358 2897.523 2897.523
13 2906.78 2895.66825 11.1117466 2895.668 2895.668
14 2882.2 2893.95203 -11.7520254 2893.952 2893.952
15 2855.8 2892.35517 -36.5551696 2892.355 2892.355
16 2855.8 2890.86221 -35.0622085 2890.862 2890.862
17 2855.8 2889.46049 -33.660489 2889.460 2889.460
18 2853.99 2888.13954 -34.1495352 2888.140 2888.140
19 2886.89058 2886.891 2886.891
20 2885.70619 2885.706 2885.706
21 2884.58006 2884.580 2884.580
22 2883.50674 2883.507 2883.507
metodos cualitativos para que no

tarea amarrar el medelo y recalcular fd

 MAD 27.79 por encimo y por debajo
RECM 11.4454775 por encimo y por debajo
MAPE 0.07% porcentual
promedio -0.11057555 no tiene ningun sentido

DT

f(x) = 2955.7238067091 x^-0.008041309

R = 0.3437555554

-0.11057555
Futuro

odos cualitativos para que no bajen las ventas habblar con el grupo o departamento para fijar el pronostico

Limites de confianza del pronost

Dt Ft LI LS
 mas o menos
mas o menos miramos el modelo mas adecuado

DT

x^-0.008041309

amento para fijar el pronostico

s de confianza del pronostico

Dt Ft LI LS
lo mas adecuado
Fecha Dt Ft et LI LS
1 2927.91 2946.9003 -18.9903017 2927.910 2965.891
2 2927.91 2941.01239 -13.1023909 2927.910 2954.115
3 2927.91 2935.13624 -7.22624426 2935.134 2935.139
4 2908.53 2929.27184 -20.7418381 2918.434 2940.109
5 2932.01 2923.41915 8.59085091 2923.419 2923.419
6 2927.53 2917.57815 9.95184626 2917.578 2917.578
7 2936.72 2911.74883 24.9711713 2911.749 2911.749
8 2930.17 2905.93115 24.2388493 2905.931 2905.931
9 2930.17 2900.1251 30.0449037 2900.125 2900.125
10 2930.17 2894.33064 35.8393575 2894.331 2894.331
11 2936.66 2888.54777 48.1122339 2888.548 2888.548
12 2921.9 2882.77644 39.1235562 2882.776 2882.776
13 2906.78 2877.01665 29.7633474 2877.017 2877.017
14 2882.2 2871.26837 10.9316305 2871.268 2871.268
15 2855.8 2865.53157 -9.73157146 2865.532 2865.532
16 2855.8 2859.80624 -4.00623556 2859.806 2859.806
17 2855.8 2854.09234 1.70766111 2854.092 2854.092
18 2853.99 2848.38986 5.6001414 2848.390 2848.390
19 2842.69877 2842.699 2842.699
20 2837.01906 2837.019 2837.019
21 2831.35069 2831.351 2831.351
22 2825.69365 2825.694 2825.694
metodos cualitativos para que no

tarea amarrar el medelo y recalcular fd

 MAD 18.9903017 por encimo y por debajo
RECM 13.1023909 por encimo y por debajo
MAPE 0.25% porcentual
promedio 10.8376093 no tiene ningun sentido

Dt

f(x) = 2952.7812129275 exp( -0.0016066553 x )

R = 0.6082876386

10.8376093
Futuro

odos cualitativos para que no bajen las ventas habblar con el grupo o departamento para fijar el pronostico

limites de confianza del pronostico

Dt Ft LI LS
 mas o menos
mas o menos miramos el modelo mas adecuado

Dt

6553 x )

amento para fijar el pronostico

a del pronostico

LI LS
lo mas adecuado
Fecha Dt Ft et LI LS
1 2927.91
2 2927.91
3 2927.91
4 2908.53
5 2932.01
6 2927.53
7 2936.72
8 2930.17
9 2930.17
10 2930.17
11 2936.66
12 2921.9
13 2906.78
14 2882.2
15 2855.8
16 2855.8
17 2855.8
18 2853.99
19
20
21
22
metodos cualitativos para que no

tarea amarrar el medelo y recalcular fd

 MAD 0 por encimo y por debajo
RECM 0 por encimo y por debajo
MAPE 0.00% porcentual
promedio #DIV/0! no tiene ningun sentido

Dt

#DIV/0!
Futuro

odos cualitativos para que no bajen las ventas habblar con el grupo o departamento para fijar el pronostico
 mas o menos
mas o menos miramos el modelo mas adecuado

Dt

amento para fijar el pronostico

lo mas adecuado
0,0066*A3^3-0,4643*A3^2+6,2692*A3+2913,7
 0,0066*A3^3-0,4643*A3^2+6,2692*A3+2913,73

643*A3^2+6,2692*A3+2913,73