HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

03 March, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 STRATEGY FOR THE DAY

USDINR MAR FUT. : SELL ARND 67.20 SL 67.45 TGT 66.90

MAJOR CURRENCY CURRENCY VIEW POINT

Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. STRONGER DOLLAR AND WEAKER DOMESTIC EQUITY
Close
WILL RESTRICT RUPEE GAIN
USDINR 66.71 66.83 -0.118 -0.18%
DXY INDX 102.06 102.20 -0.140 -0.14%
Domestic unit, rupee closed stronger against the US dollar, as
EURUSD 1.052 1.051 0.001 0.11%
foreign institutional investors continued to buy in local equity
GBPUSD 1.227 1.227 0.001 0.05%
USDJPY 114.250 114.410 -0.160 -0.14% markets following better than expected growth number. The home
DG USDINR 67.006 66.863 0.143 0.21% currency closed at 66.71, up 0.18% from its previous close of 66.83.
Rupee remained resilient to stronger dollar and strengthen against
major trading partners mainly on back of better economic condition.
GLOBAL INDICES
We believe, relative to emerging-market average, currency
appreciation in domestic unit remains stronger on better domestic
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. outlook.
Close
SGX NIFTY 8891.5 8921.0 -30 -0.33% Yield on 6.97% notes due September 2026, current 10-year
NIFTY 8899.8 8945.8 -46 -0.51% benchmark, falls as demand surges ahead of coupon payment due
SENSEX 28839.8 28984.5 -145 -0.50% Monday. Yield drops 10bps, most since Jan. 2, to 6.83%. Today is
HANG-SENG 23607.1 23728.1 -121 -0.51% shut period (day on RBI pays interest) for the 6.97% 2026. Its
NIKKEI 19537.6 19564.8 -27 -0.14% always difficult to borrow the security in the repo market. Today
SHANGHAI 3212.0 3230.0 -18 -0.56% short covering likely to see in bond market.
S&P INDEX 2381.9 2396.0 -14 -0.59% The one month non- deliverable forward last quoted at 67.11 from
DOW JONES 21003.0 21115.6 -113 -0.53% yesterdays 66.91 suggesting positive start at domestic bourses.
NASDAQ 5861.2 5904.0 -43 -0.73% Technically, spot USDINR is forming lower highs and lows indicating
FTSE 7382.4 7382.9 -1 -0.01%
bearish view with the immediate support at 66.32 and 66.07. The
CAC 4963.8 4960.8 3 0.06%
bias remains bearish till it closes above 67.27.
DAX 12059.6 12067.2 -8 -0.06%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Dollar on Track for Solid Weekly Gains on Fed Rate Hike

The dollar broadly steady early today, on track for solid weekly gains on growing expectations the U.S. Federal
Reserve could raise interest rates as early as at its meeting this month, triggering a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. ICE
dollar index down 0.1% at 102.07 but was within sight of the previous session's high of 102.260, which was its loftiest
peak since Jan. 11. For the week, it was up more 1%.
Fed funds futures on Thursday implied traders saw a 79.7% probability of a Fed rate hike at its March 14-15 policy
meeting, up from 66.4% on Wednesday, according to data from CME Group's FedWatch program.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen as well as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer are slated to speak later today, and could reinforce the
hawkish message.
Technically, ICE dollar index broke out upward range indicating bullishness. In near term, the buck will face resistance
around 103.82 while continue to hold psychological support of 100.

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Technical Observations

USDINR forming lower top lower

bottom on daily scale indicating
continuation of bearish trend.
The pair is heading towards lower
band of the Bollinger indicating
weaker trend.
Momentum oscillators consolidating
slightly above oversold zone giving
unclear view.
The recent price action suggesting
continuation of bearish trend with
downside 66.32 and 66.07.
The outlook remains bearish till pair
surpasses 67.27 on closing basis.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 Outlook

USDINR MAR17 66.90 66.92 66.75 66.81 66.86 66.96 67.03 67.07 Short Buildup
EURINR MAR17 70.58 70.63 70.17 70.34 70.46 70.75 70.92 71.04 Short Buildup
GBPINR MAR17 82.28 82.29 81.85 82.00 82.14 82.43 82.58 82.72 Short Buildup
JPYINR MAR17 58.64 58.69 58.22 58.39 58.52 58.81 58.99 59.11 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.10 66.79 68.24 66.65 68.86 66.07 66.75 67.02 67.65 67.51 67.28
EURINR 71.19 70.28 73.35 70.19 77.01 70.19 70.49 71.29 71.66 72.33 73.69
GBPINR 84.00 83.04 86.27 81.82 100.49 80.89 82.77 83.35 83.69 83.76 86.66
JPYINR 59.50 58.83 60.49 58.37 68.11 57.25 59.09 59.20 59.07 60.36 62.61

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.76 66.79 66.68 66.71 -0.12 -- -- -- --
USDINR MAR. FUT. 66.96 66.98 66.87 66.90 -0.14 1723702 100573 658451 -179943
SPOT EURINR 70.35 70.38 70.19 70.25 -0.17 -- -- -- --
EURINR MAR. FUT. 70.80 70.80 70.51 70.58 -0.20 83212 4051 33578 -2871
SPOT GBPINR 81.98 82.06 81.82 81.94 -0.49 -- -- -- --
GBPINR MAR. FUT. 82.44 82.44 82.15 82.28 -0.59 61732 10706 59299 6682
SPOT JPYINR 58.57 58.62 58.37 58.39 -0.33 -- -- -- --
JPYINR MAR. FUT. 58.83 58.86 58.57 58.64 -0.38 24322 4773 31184 -11872

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

03/02/2017 15:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Feb 52.0 52.5 52.2

03/02/2017 15:30 EC PPI YoY Jan 3.20% 3.5% 1.60%
03/02/2017 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Jan -- 9.60% 9.60%
03/02/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims Feb25 245k 223k 244k
03/02/2017 19:00 US Continuing Jobless Claims Feb 25 2060k 2066k 2063k

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

None

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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Any position in Instruments NO

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]