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This newsletter is produced by the Association of Technical Market Analysts. All comments and editorial material do not necessarily reflect the organization's
opinion nor does it constitute an endorsement by the Association of Technical Market Analysts or any of its officers, of any products or services mentioned.
Sources are believed to be reliable at time of publication, but not guaranteed. The Association of Technical Market Analysts and its officers, assume no
responsibility for errors or omissions.
Dear Colleagues,
Greetings of the Festive Season to all the members of ATMA and all the readers of the ATMASPHERE! Autumn is in the air! May you enjoy the spell of
holidays and festivities with your near & dear ones. Let the luminescence of the upcoming Diwali lamps light up and brighten up our minds, bodies and
account balances!
We are having only one chapter meeting in the month of October at Mumbai. All other chapters will resume action once we return back from the holidays,
next month.
Sincerely,
Sushil Kedia
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 3
EDITORS NOTE
In this issue -
1. Ananth Madhav explains market phases using moving averages, in his article Analysis of Market Phases using 50 and 200 SMA.
2. Alex a.k.a Pit trader continues the explanation of the concept of Market Profile.
3. Supriya Dutta shares a simple yet effective method by William D Gann for finding price targets.
4. Subhadip Nandy brings fifth part of his series - Designing a trading system.
5. Claudia Mincucci presents yet another brilliant review of the MTAs Dow Award winning paper of 2002 Identifying Bear market bottoms and new bull
markets.
6. Sahil Vijay gives yet another interesting review of the book Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis by David Keller, CMT
We await your feedback on ATMASphere. Please let us know what we can do to deliver content that meets your needs by sending an email to editor@atma-
india.net. You can also subscribe to ATMASphere completely free by clicking here.
Sincerely,
Gunjan Duaa.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 4
Analysis of Market Phases using 50,
200 SMA.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 5
Lets look each of the phases in detail. To be continued...
Accumulation: Price Close > 50 SMA. Price Close < 200 SMA and 50
SMA < 200 SMA. The Accumulation phase begins when traders who
are short decide to cover their positions, and investors decide to buy
the stock at its low. In this phase prices rise above 50 SMA, which
means prices are stronger than they have been recently and higher
lows are seen in this phase. But 50 SMA < 200 SMA which means long
term trend is still down.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 6
Understanding Market Profile
In this series I will explain TPOs, on which market profile is based on.
TPOs are basic building blocks of Market profile. Short for Time Price
Opportunities.
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New price has been assigned to that price range. Every time price
trades at 1951 subsequent letters depend on the timeframe assigned
in the range of 1951.
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On the left of the chart are TPOs OR time price opportunity areas We will discuss more on value areas and strategies in next segment.
represents that particular time span. And on the right of the chart in brown By now you can judge the condition of market by just glancing at
color are nothing but volume plotted horizontally on that particular Market profile chart.
price. On 18th highest volume traded at 2001. In short left profile is
for a price and writes profile is for volume.
Now we can easily see that where the price has been auctioned
most. Where there is cluster of TPOs price has been auctioned most Hi, I often go with nick name Pit Trader.
in that range, that happens when that particular price range got
I trade Index futures and options. I currently live in Toronto, Canada.
accepted by most of the market participants. In the chart that price is
I use Multicharts and R.I am a programmer myself, and use my own
2000 on 18th and 1990 on 17th (shown by a magenta line in the chart
trading systems based on statistical models and Market profile.
above). Which is called as point of control or POC? I (f we added all
the TPOs (that is overall range of the market) and omit 30% of the You can follow me on twitter @NarcissisTrader.
range where the market traded least, what we left with is price range
of 70% of total range which is called as Value area. That green color
bar represents value area. Value area and point of control are
probably the most important factors in auction market theory. Most
strategies are devised around that. High of the value area is called as
value area high (VAH) and low of the value area is called as value
area low (VAL)
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 9
Gann Swing 7 Base Predicting Method
A) BULLISH
Lets begin with understanding the swing low & swing high (IMd
Ress). Low made by nifty 7422 (swing low) and faced IMD ress at
7478 (swing high). Ones we have the two swing (high / low) values,
subtract (7478-7422=56) 56 is the net diff. Multiply the net diff (56)
with Base Method (7.5 times) 56*7.5=420. Now to ascertain the
target area (bullish rally) add the derived value (base method) 420
with the lower swing point (7422+420=7842). Post our calculations
deploy the Final Value to charts. Snap 7840 target was taken out by
NIFTY (actual high was made 7840.9).
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B) Bearish High made by nifty 7840.9 (swing high) and faced IMD support at
77801 (swing low). Ones we have the two swing (high / low) values,
subtract (7840.9-7801=39.9) 39.9 is the net diff. Multiply the net diff
(39.9) with Base Method (7.5 times) 39.9*7.5=299. Now to ascertain
the target area (bearish rally) subtract the derived value (base
method) 299 with the lower swing point (7840.9-299=7542). Post our
calculations deploy the Final Value to charts. Snap 7542 target was
taken out by NIFTY (actual low was made 7540).
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 11
Stress test report and then explaining each factor which I have
Designing a trading system Part 5 considered.
In the previous part of this series, I provided a back test for the
system as follows:
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 12
We do the same standard error calculation for the losing trades thus
increasing the number of losing trades from 14 to 18 and increase
the total loss amount.
Now we run some more tests and come to the following chart:
Payoff Ratio: (Average profit per profitable trade / Average loss per
losing trade) the return expected per rupee of risk, must be greater
than 1.
Trade Expectancy: (win ratio *avg win)/ (loss ratio*avg loss) this
must be positive for the system to be ultimately profitable
Top 10% losses: Total amount lost in the biggest 10% losing trades
Net Top 10% wins: This figure must be positive, i.e., whether the
system is still profitable after deducting the top 10% winnings
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 13
Max drawdown amount: A drawdown is measured from the time a
retrenchment begins to when a new high is reached. This method is
Returns minus positive outliers: Returns calculated after deducting
used because a valley can't be measured until a new high occurs.
the top winnings
Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old
Tops wins minus top losses: Best 10% wins minus best 10% losses. high to the smallest trough is recorded. Draw downs help determine
This figure must be sufficiently positive an investment's financial risk. Both the Calmar and Sterling ratios use
this metric to compare a security's possible reward to its risk.
Ratio of top wins to top losses: This ratio must be greater than 1.
Anything greater than 2 is great, the more the merrier Max drawdown percentage: Drawdown expected as percentage
Net minus all outliers: Returns calculated after removing the top Luck factor: (% of highest winning trade / % of average winning
10% of wins and losses. In terms of a bell curve, removing the outliers trade). This explains how much a single trade contributes (is lucky) to
both sides the performance of the system. We are looking for a low figure on
this one. A system with a luck factor of 6 or 7 means that 6-7 times
Returns % minus all outliers: the net returns after outliers removed the average profit came via a single trade. Hence, in real trading we
on both sides. might not come across such a trade
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 14
I expect readers to go through the figures systematically, Google
when necessary and come up with questions.
He now manages his own and prop money, based upon self
developed algorithmic strategies. He can be reached at
www.quantgym.com
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 15
Important market declines are produced by extremes in human
DOW AWARDS 2002 - IDENTIFYING BEAR emotions and this decline precede important market bottoms
The intensity of those emotions can be statistically measured
MARKET BOTTOMS AND NEW BULL through the purchases and sales in the market.
MARKETS
Looking for measuring panic selling in terms of intensity, rather than
By Paul F. Desmond just activity, author broke the volume of trading into two parts
Upside Volume (buyers) and Downside Volume (sellers).
As well for price changes for all NYSE-listed stocks that advanced
each day (Points Gained) and stocks that declined each day (Points
Buy at the end of bear markets is the sweet spot for investors Lost).
because the first few months of a new bull market in which so many
stocks rise so dramatically.
A day of panic selling is defined as a day in which Downside Volume
equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Upside Volume plus Downside
But is well known the difficulty in identifying the primary trend of the Volume, and Points Lost equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Points
stock market. Gained plus Points Lost.
After a new bull market has begun, financial news typically remains
negative for months and economic indicators does not begin to In the following table was shown in Lowrys Daily Market Trend
improve before six to nine months. Analysis Report of April 4.
April 3, 2001 qualified as a valid 90% Downside Day.
Author based his research on the Lowry analysis derived from the
Law of Supply and Demand, the foundation of all macro-economic
analysis.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 16
In this paper we could see several charts of Dow Jones Industrial Having reviewed the daily history from 1933 to present (2002) on the
Average in the months before and after a number of major market New York Stock Exchange, the following observations were
bottoms. extracted.
An oscillator of both Price and Volume percentages combined into a 90% Downside Days typically occur on a more than once
single indicator highlights the 90%Days (both Downside and Upside) throughout a major decline, often spread apart by as much as
with dots outside the 90% lines. thirty trading days.
Declines containing two or more 90% Downside Days usually
persist, on a trend basis, until investors eventually come
rushing back in to snap up what they perceive to be the
bargains of the decade to produce a 90% Upside
A single, isolated 90% Downside Day does not, by itself, have
any long term trend implications, since they often occur at
the end of short term corrections.
But it should be viewed as an important warning that more
could follow because it shows that investors are in panic
mood.
Impressive, big-volume snap-back rallies lasting from two to
seven days commonly follow quickly after 90% Downside
Days
As a general rule, longer-term investors should probably view
snap-back rallies as opportunities to move to a more
defensive position.
In approximately half the cases in the period observed, the
90% Upside Day, or the back-to- back 80% Upside Days, which
signaled a major market reversal, occurred within five trading
days or less of the market low.
As a general rule, the longer it takes for buyers to
enthusiastically rush in after the market low, the more
investors should look for other confirmatory evidence of a
market reversal.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 17
Be aware of upside days on which only one component Conclusion
(Upside Volume or Points Gained) reaches the 90.0% or more
level, while the other component falls short of the 90% level. This 90% indicator has proven be a very valuable tool in identifying
Such rallies are often short-lived. the extremes of human psychology that occur near major market
Back-to-back 90% Upside Days (such as May 31 and June 1, bottoms.
1988) are a relatively rare development, and have usually In spite of that it should not be used solely as single indicator. Other
been appeared near the beginning of important intermediate measurements of price, volume, breadth, and momentum are
and longer term trend rallies. needed to monitor the strength of buying versus selling on a 13
continuous daily basis.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 18
Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis- Book The Book continues with the great work of Tom Demark in the
chapter Trend Spotting with TD Combo. Tom Demark challenges
Review some of the pre conceived notions about how the markets functions,
how tops and bottoms are formed. The so called bottoms formation
by smart money and tops by smart investor selling out is challenged
with research and its the lack of selling and buying, which create that
market phenomenon. The author goes on to explain several great
inputs such as Price exhaustion and Reversal etc.
The book starts off with the chapter Drummed Geometry. Ted Constance Brown then explains the criticality of Time and Price
Hearne magnificently portrays the well known factors to make a confluence analysis. She goes on to explain the importance of
great trading platform which is primarily based upon: identifying the drawing right confluence zones to combat market expansion and
resistance and support zones and their projection into the future, contraction. She goes on to almost construct a trading platform using
description of the markets current state and its next state, multiple multiplicity of factors such as RSI, Gann Analysis, Fibonacci
time frame analysis. He goes on to exhibit how one can study the Confluence Zones, composite index and much more. The importance
state of the market and from there to predict the future state of it of Time cycles and their worth in technical analysis is touched upon.
and explains the types of trading etc to nurture budding aspirants of David E Bowden gives his insights into Unlocking Gann by
technical analysis and enlighten the existing practitioners. familiarizing the importance of time aspect, market cycles, range
selection, proper trading set up and much more.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 19
Bernie Schaeffer elaborates on Options Based Technical Indicators
for Stock Trading. He enlightens up by explaining why we should go
for options and what are the criteria for successful options trading
and how the options data can be helpful in technical analysis.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 20
World's FIRST E-Library of Technical Analysis As a well rounded professional you surely wish to read on
negotiation techniques, VBA programming, Statistics,
business biographies, investment classics and a whole host
The R. N. Elliott ATMA E-library of Technical Analysis of subjects. Yes, the R.N. Elliott ATMA E-library of Technical
Analysis regularly stocks up on varied titles that take care of
Inaugurated on 6th October 2012, at the hands of Mr. Robert
Prechter, Jr. the worlds first E-library for Technical Analysts continues
holistic professional interests of Technical Analysts!
to grow.
A world that is short on time to travel, you can check-out books, Some of the latest e-book additions in the Library:
return them as now you have the E-Library that you could access for
ethically obtained, copyright respecting readings using any of your
favorite devices: Whether based on windows, apple, android, kindle
or even nook!
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 21
PAST EVENTS UPDATES
Mr.Krishna Rao Chapter : Date: 07-09-2014
Bengaluru
Topic: Using Trend Line and Fibonacci
FUTURE EVENT UPDATES
Summary:
1. What is trend? Mr.Ambareesh Chapter : Date:18-10-2014
2. Method of drawing trend. Baliga Mumbai
3. Usage of Moving Averages and Topic: The Games Promoters Play-In the
Indicators. market as well as in the financial accounts.
4. Trend Line along with Fibonacci Ratio
5. How to identify Flase Break out without 1. How Promoters function in the financial
trend line. markets.
2. What Promoters do to manipulate
Mr.Atul Suri Chapter : Date: 20-09-2014 markets?
Mumbai 3. Discussion on Money Laundering.
4. How promoters cook up financial
Topic: Trading for a Living
markets?
Summary:
1. Journey from technical analyst to
successful trader.
2. Sharing Practical experience of the
speaker.
3. Trader Personality and Systems.
4. Money Management and wealth
creation.
5. Individual introspection and finding
individual answers.
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 22
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 23
Benefits of Membership with the ATMA
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 24
SEPTEMBER2014 ATMASPHERE | 25