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THE WAVE
January 2017
HIGHER GLOBAL GROWTH PROJECTION
2017 __
Source: IMF 2
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FIT TO RIDE?
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HIGH CCI and STILL TOP 3 IN THE WORLD
150 Confidence
about Future
140 Condition
130 124
120
110
110 Sept16
100
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Confidence about
80 Current Condition
70 96
60
CCI
50 CECI
JUN14 SEP14 DEC14 MAR15 JUN15 SEP15 DEC15 MAR16 JUN16 SEP16 CEI
CCI : Consumer Confidence Index
CECI : Consumer Economic Condition Index
Source: Bank Indonesia CEI : Consumer Expectation Index 13
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INCREASING FDI
15
RISING INDUSTRY FDI IN FLOW
infrastructure, agriculture, maritime, SEZ development, tourism and industrial
(labour intensive, export oriented and import-substitution) sectors
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EXPANDING AND FOCUSING TOURISM
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BUILDING INFRASTRUCTURE CONNECTING ISLANDS AND CITIES
346.6T
(9.3%)
2017
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EASE OF DOING BUSINESS
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DESPERATELY waiting for that wave
GDP Growth (%) Inflation MAT (%)
4.3 4.5
3.8
3.4 3.4
3.1
CONSUMPTION
HOUSEHOLD
5.1 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.7 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0
4.3
32
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Q316 55
6.9 6.6 7.3
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5.5 6.3
GOVERNMEN
T SPENDING
4.0 4.5
2.0 2.2 2.3 2.9
9
-3.0
Export/GDP : 18% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 | Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
Import/GDP : 17%
Net Export : 1%
INVESTMENT
8.9 9.1
6.7 6.9
HH Consumption Gov. Spending 5.3 4.4 4.6 5.6 5.1
4.1 3.6 4.1
Investment Net Export/Import
Others
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 | Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 28
Source: BPS
AUTO SALES FLAT AND MOTOR SALES DOWN
1,796 1,787
275 1,958
321 1,733
300 1,712
249
2,142 1,863
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291 1,872
225 295 1,629
263 239 252 1,717
1,388
230 314 2,080 1,969 2,226
300 1,771
276 243 265 1,610 1,458
174
282 329 283 1,994 1,932 1,971 1,990 1,647 1,504
209 249 267
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: Association Numbers (GAIKINDO and AISI) 29
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Cautious spending consumers ...
Restraining Mode
Less Channel
Less Frequency
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Less Basket
Less Impulse
Down Trade
34
BECAUSE its not a V trend, its a
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Festive + School fee Amnesty fee Illegal fee eradication Demonstration + Festive fear
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July 16 uprising spend :
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SOFT WIND
38
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Indonesia Total Grocery | Total 55 FMCG Categories | YTD Nov 2016 vs YTD Nov 2015 vs FY 2015
2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16
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Indonesia Total Grocery | Non Food | YTD Nov 2016 vs YTD Nov 2015 vs FY 2015
2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16
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N. Sumatra
Indonesia Growth
7.1% 8.2%
Contribution
C. Sumatra
5.1 5.4% Kalimantan
12.8%
S. Sumatra Sulawesi
4.4 4.6 13.5%
4.7% Jakarta
Greater 5.2
6.7 4.6%
21.5
W. C. E. Bali
Java Java Java Nusra
10.4% 9.7% 9.2% 8.8%
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18.0 15.3 14.9
Cooking oil and liquid milk hit double digit volume
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growth
Indonesia Total Grocery | Total 55 FMCG Categories | YTD Nov 2016 vs YTD Nov 2015
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3.0 5.2
Toilet Soap 8.3
-1.5 Volume Growth %
Skincare 4.5 6.0
0.7 Value Growth % 5.3
Shampoo 6.1
Snack
6.9 Average Price Increase 6.8
14.1
1.0 2.8
Detergent 3.9
Cologne 5.6 5.5
11.4
3.1 -1.7
Stock Soup 1.3
Candies 2.1 5.5
7.7
-9.6 3.0
Carbonated Soft Drink -6.9
Toothpaste
1.5 3.3
4.8
43
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Indonesia Total Grocery | Total 55 FMCG Categories | YTD Nov 2016 vs YTD Nov 2015
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Mineral water and Diapers are amongst the star
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Indonesia Total Grocery | Total 55 FMCG Categories | YTD Nov 2016 vs YTD Nov 2015
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High growth brands within top 5
365.2 22.1
30.0 28.9% 44.6 356.0
Val 14.5 17.3 13.5
21.7 19.6% 40.0
Vol 10.9 14.2
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43.5 21.8
Val 156.8 23.7
25.9 15.2
Vol 155.9 20.0
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52.0 89.1
Val 44.2 58.6
40.7
Vol 48.7
47
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13.6
11.6 13.1 9.7 10.1
8.2 7.6 7.7 8.5
2.5 8.3 8.1 5.9 5.8 5.5
5.2 6.1 4.0
9.0 3.8 2.6 3.8 1.6 5.0 1.8 2.0
4.4 5.3 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.4 3.4 4.0 3.6 0.4
3.7
Total Indonesia Modern Trade | 55 Categories
17.6 13.1
10.0 8.8 11.7 9.8 10.3
14.4 6.1 6.2 6.4 5.8 7.5
3.6 8.9 6.3 7.0 11.1 4.2
4.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 4.8
6.4 3.9 3.2 2.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 2.0 3.9 4.1
2.3 3.4 2.7 0.8
3.4
Total Indonesia General Trade | 55 Categories
12.7 11.0 14.0 10.0 10.1
7.8 8.4 9.5
1.8 7.7 3.8 5.6 5.9 4.2 3.9
3.0 4.3 3.1 4.4 5.5 6.0
10.9 6.6 6.3 5.3 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.1
4.7 5.1 4.6 4.0
-0.1 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8
YTD YTD Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16
Nov'15 Nov'16
48
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24.3
21.4 20.0
18.8 19.3 19.5
15.8 14.7
19.7 11.8 11.9
10.0 9.1
9.7 19.3 16.4 16.4 16.7 8.1
10.1 17.0
7.8 6.3 8.5
1.9 4.7 5.3
6.1 4.6 3.5 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.4
2.1 1.9 2.9 2.8 1.1
0.8
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11.0 11.4
9.8 10.0
8.8 9.1 9.3 9.3
2.5 2.7 8.0
3.6 3.6
4.2 4.2 2.8
4.9 6.1
8.5 8.7
6.2 6.4 4.9 5.2 5.2
3.9 3.2
2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16
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Indonesia Total Grocery | Non Food | YTD Nov 2016 vs YTD Nov 2015 vs FY 2015
2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16 2015 YTD Nov'15 YTD Nov'16
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7%
8%
21% 17% 31.4
-1% 26.8
27.1
19% 10% 32.0
4%
22.7 7% 28.1 29.2 Q4
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19% 26.3 Q3
22.2 13% 36.2 Q2
12% 29.8 7% 31.9
25%
26.7 Q1
21.4
22.3 25.6 25.5 31.5
18.1 23% 14% -1% 24%
77% 49.8
39.2
24.3 98 titles
23.5 22.8 21.9
102 titles 20.5
NPAPER
22% 162 titles 1.7 1.4 1.2 120 titles
1.6 1.6
MAG
1% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Nielsen Advertising Information Services (AIS) 2012 2016
Commercial product ad spending on TV & print based on gross rate card (doesnt calculate discount, promo, bonus, etc.), in Rp Trillion 54
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DISRUPTIVE PLAY
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Online shopping is still increasing and
continue developing
Increasing participation in OnlineShoDay
50% growth vs last year
Clothings, Gadgets and Travel still
Shopping drivers :
Extending audiences :
Online maniacs
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(35%)
with small base still can grow high per annum
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Increasing smartphone penetration and improved
payment system will help boost online shopping
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AMAZON IS
TOTAL TOP 8
BIGGER THAN
RETAILERS (USA)
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FORECAST
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2017 GROWTH FORECAST
gain more volume in low inflation (4%)
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87
MILLENNIALS HAVE STRENGTH
IN NUMBERS
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O F T H E G L O B A L P O P U L AT I O N
healthy
convenience lifestyle
control
added benefits
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multi-taskers
vocal / social
authenticity
connectivity
89
THE
GENERATION
IM A MASTER
I AM MORE LIKELY THAN BABY BOOMERS TO
2.4X
BROWSE THE INTERNET WHILE
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1.6X
59% 62%
30% 36%
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49% 45%
35%
28% 18% 17%
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BABY BOOMERS
(50-64)
15%
7% 5% 3% 7% 8%
SHARING VEHICLE
94
Girls bring HP camera into the dressing room and take snapshot of the outfits
they tried on, and finding review and recommendations from friends
purchase decision is team sport
95
THE GENERATION
I WANT TO BE
80% 63%
Source: The Cambridge Group 97
I WANT TO BE
81% 65%
Source: The Cambridge Group 98
I WANT MY FOR ME
7 food attributes that appeal to Millennials more than Boomers
FAIR TRADE
GLUTEN-FREE ORGANIC
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CAFFEINE-FREE
HIGH PROTEIN
41%
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21%
13%
Category 1
MILLENNIALS BABY BOOMERS
Nielsen Global New Product Innovation Survey, Q1 2015 100
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STARBUCK RESERVE
101
I WANT
51% 49%
12% 13%
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81% 67%
Source: Nielsen Global Health & Wellness Survey, Q3 2014
103
IM FOR IT
48% 34%
Source: Nielsen Global New Product Innovation Survey, Q1 2015
104
IM FOR IT
73% 51%
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Corporate Social Responsibility, Q1 2014
105
I WANT ,
JUST LIKE EVERYONE ELSE
62% 66%
53%
41%
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25%
107
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108
THE GENERATION
IM ON THE GO, THEREFORE
EVERYWHERE
81% 66%
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USE A VIRTUAL SUPERMARKET ORDER ONLINE AND PICK UP INSIDE THE STORE
Source: Nielsen Global E-commerce and the New Retail Survey, Q3 2014 111
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112
AND WATCH WHAT I WANT,
AGREE THAT
MORE LIKELY TO SAY THEY WATCHING VIDEO
PLAN TO CANCEL SERVICE IN PROGRAMMING ON MY
FAVOR OF ONLINE-ONLY MOBILE DEVICE IS
CONVENIENT
Source: Nielsen Global Video-on-Demand Survey, Q3 2015 , Nielsen Global Digital Landscape, Q3 2014 113
MY MEALS ARE
MILLENNIALS BABY BOOMERS
58% 16%
29%
4%
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Category
I EAT 1 Category 2
OUT AT LEAST I EAT MOST
Category 1 OF MYCategory
DINNER 2
ONCE A WEEK MEALS ON THE GO OR WITH
FRIENDS
Source: Nielsen Out-of-Home Dining Habits Survey, Q3 2015, Nielsen Generational Lifestyle Survey, Q1 2015 114
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KULINA
115
MY MEALS NEED TO
52% 41%
I eat snacks as meal replacements
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44% 31%
I prefer to eat at street food vendors
28% 9%
Source: Nielsen Global Snacking Survey, Q1 2014 , Nielsen Generational Lifestyle Survey, Q1 2015 116
117
MINE THE MILLENNIAL
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Emerging Seven
INDONESIA 2050
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E7 passed G7 in 2014
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INDONESIA 4.3%
2014-20150 AVERAGE GDP GROWTH
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4TH
RANKED
2050
INDONESIA
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Indonesia average growth will lower towards
2050 as base enlarging
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THE NEXT
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Exponential impact
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SHOPPERTAINMENT
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FIVE CINEMAS
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MALL EVOLUTION.
150
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151
Surrounded by Ubiquitous
parking lot atrium Traditional
foodcourt
Dumbbell
Anchor each
ends
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Art exhibit
Deconstruct-
ed foodcourt Technology to engage
Neighbour digitally
Community
Click and hood feel focus,
collect amphi
theater
Incubation,
popup
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155
Nano Office
Walkable, technology Co-working
train, bikes Exterior space Smart parking
Self driving
Apps
Advance green
energy
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156
Click and Bigger Better Apps based delivery
collect connectivity anywhere in the mall
Food and goods
Cable free Infrastructure
elevator
157
Streamlined Changing
sourcing constantly,
Future: anchored by programmed year
food and experience Consumer round
Change with time of driven
day Food experience is
movement Require twice
everywhere common area today
Discovery food
festival, food
street
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158
Education
experience: Authentic taste of Select online
cooking class, Interactive
lectures
place
Local eating Fitting Suites
Keep life
interesting vegetable gardens
Warehousing
Seamless check For same day
out Drone
Like stealing delivery
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