Real Life Simulations 1

Module 5 Application Assignment

Real Life Simulations

Samantha DiMatteo

Marygrove College
Real Life Simulations 2

A simulation is a model that imitates a real life scenario. Van De Walle, Karp, and

Bay-Williams (2013) state, Using random devices such as spinners, dice, or cubes drawn

from a bag gives students and intuitive feel for the imperfect distribution of randomness

(p.461). When the experiments of a simulation are carried out they can help to gain

perspective as to how that event could occur in real life.

Representing the choices of creating a breakfast omelet using a coin, a spinner, and

a die is an example of a simulation that mimics a real life event. A coin could represent the

possibility of a customer choosing egg whites verses the yolks. A spinner divided into 4

sections could be used to simulate the possibility of ordering bacon, sausage, ham, or pork

roll. A second spinner could model the possibility of ordering America, cheddar, provolone,

Swiss, or feta cheese. Lastly, a six-sided die could represent six vegetables. Vegetables

could include: tomatoes, spinach, onions, peppers, asparagus, and mushrooms. Van De

Walle, Karp, and Bay-Williams (2013) state, To create the sample space for two

independent events, use a chart or diagram that keeps the two events separate and

illustrates all possible combinations (p. 464). By creating a chart, specifically a tree

diagram, students will be able to identify all of the possibilities of this event.

Another simulation that students could participate in is playing the Pick 6 Lottery.

They have the option of selecting their own numbers or having their calculators randomly

generate numbers for them. Another option would be to have the numbers 1-49 written on
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ping-pong balls and place them in a bag; students could then choose 6 numbers at random

from the bag. Students will complete ten trials and identify if they have no matches, 3

matches, 4 matches, 5 matches, or the jackpot. This activity should give students a more

realistic perspective about how small the probability of winning the lottery is. The

probabilities of each event would mirror real life probabilities because students are

choosing numbers randomly or using a device to generate random numbers, which is the

same process used for those who actually play the lottery.

Providing students with an opportunity to simulate real life events makes the

material relatable and thus more intriguing to the learner. Kinzer, Virag, and Sara (2011)

state, A learning-centered classroom affords students the opportunity to reflect as they

engage in problem solving and making sense of mathematics to demonstrate proficiency in a

variety of ways (p. 481). Activities such as these ones can allow students to recognize the

massive amount of possibilities that can occur from a fairly small data set. As educators

we need to capitalize on the opportunities to bring the real world into our classrooms, and

creating simulations is a perfect opportunity to do just that.

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Whats on the Menu? Name _________________

Make Your Own Omelet

Eggs Meat Cheese Vegetable

Eggs (w/yolks) Bacon American Tomatoes

Egg Whites Sausage Cheddar Spinach
Ham Provolone Onions
Pork Roll Swiss Peppers
Feta Asparagus
Mushrooms

You favorite local restaurant just added a build-your-own option to their

breakfast menu. Customers can create their own omelet; they have a choice
of egg whites or regular eggs, a meat, a cheese, and a vegetable.

(1) First simulate a few possible scenarios using a coin to represent the choice
of eggs, a spinner with 4 sections to represent the choice of meat, a second
spinner with 5 sections to represent the cheese, and a six-sided die to
represent the vegetable.

(2) Use a tree chart identify how many different possible combinations of
omelets exist within the parameters of this menu.

(3) Build your own omelet: If you could make your own omelet what would be
in it? What is the probability that someone else in our class made the same
selections for their omelet as you did?
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Games of Chance: Lotto Name _________________

New Jersey Pick 6 Lotto: How to Play

The jackpots start at $2 million and keep growing until someone wins. Lotto is
drawn on Mondays and Thursdays. In order to win the jackpot you must select
the exact numbers drawn by the lotto machine (though order doesnt matter).
Each bet slip is divided into five separate panels. Each panel contains a field
of numbers from 1 to 49. Select six numbers from each panel. Play one to five
panels (each panel costs $1). You may select your own six numbers or The
Lottery computer will randomly select six numbers for you. Each Pick-6 Lotto
bet is $1.00. That means each panel you complete on your bet slip costs
$1.00. (Note: there are also prizes for getting 3, 4, or 5 matches. See the back
side of this sheet for winning information).
Simulation Directions: On your graphing calculator select APPS. Then scroll
down and select 3: Prob Sim and then 6: Random Numbers

Next select Set (ZOOM key) and be sure that

Numbers: 6 Range: 1 10 Repeat: No Then hit ok
Then select your 6 numbers to play the lotto (for this round we set the range from 1 and 10).
Remember numbers cannot be repeated and order will not matter.

____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____

Simulation 10 trials and record the results (hit Draw (WINDOW key) to play)
Jackpot
5 matches
4 matches
3 matches
No matches

How much money did you gain? (Remember you spent $1 for each roll)

Next select 6 numbers between 1 and 49. This is the actual range for the Pick 6 Lotto. Hit Set
and chance the Range to: 1 49 Remember numbers cannot be repeated and order will not
matter.
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____
Simulation 10 trials and record the results
Jackpot
5 matches
4 matches
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3 matches
No matches

How much money did you gain? (Remember you spent $1 for each roll)

Extension questions
1) Determine the probability of hitting the jackpot. (Hint: Remember you are choosing 6 numbers
and order doesnt matter.)

2) Lets say that you already have millions of dollars in your bank account that you were willing
to use on the lotto (hopefully you would find better ways to spend it). If you were to buy 1
millions different tickets, what are your new chances of hitting the jackpot. Show your answer in
both fraction and decimal form.

Below are the probabilities of the other winning outcomes:

Match Prize Odds (per $1 play) Average Prize*

6 out of 6 Jackpot See your answer for #1 Jackpot*
5 out of 6 Second 1 : 54,201 $2,700*
4 out of 6 Third 1 : 1,032 $56*
3 out of 6 Fourth 1 : 57 $3

*Average prizes are pari-mutuel and are based on sales and number of winners with the exception of the
$3 prize, which is a fixed prize.

3) In one panel (trial) what is the probability that you would win money back? (decimal form is ok)

4) In one panel (trial), what is the probability that you will lose your dollar? (decimal form is ok)

5) Writing Task: In your own words, describe why the jackpot starts at $2,000,000 and often
reaches $8 million to $ 12 million before someone wins. Be sure to include concepts from this
chapter in your explanation.

6) If the order in which the numbers were selected did matter, what would the new probability of
winning the jackpot chance to?

7) Using your answer from #6, if the lotto machine could print out one panel (trial) per second,
about how many days would it take for the machine to print out every single arrangement of
numbers (i.e. choosing six numbers from 1 49, no repeats, order matters)
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References

Coffey, D. C., & Richardson, M. G. (2005). Rethinking fair games. Mathematics

Teaching in the Middle School, 10(6), 298303.

Kinzer, C. J., Virag, L., & Morales, S. (2011). A reflective protocol for

mathematics learning environments. Teaching Children Mathematics, 17(8), 480-

484.

Mittag, K. C., & Taylor, S. E. (2006). Hitting the bulls eye: A dart game

simulation using graphing calculator technology. Mathematics Teaching in the

Middle School, 12(2), 116120.

Van de Walle, J. A., Karp, K. S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. (2013). Elementary and

middle school mathematics methods: Teaching developmentally (8 th ed.). Pearson:

Boston.