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WORK 1/2016
NAME: EVERDEEN
IC NUMBER:
OBJECTIVE
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The aims of carrying this project work are:
learning.
VI. To develop positive attitude towards mathematics.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First and foremost, I would like to thank you for giving me the strength to finish
this project work. Not forgotten my parents for providing everything including support
and endorsement on finishing the work related to this project which are the most
needed for this project. They also encouraged me to complete this task so that I will
not procrastinate in doing it.
Then, I would like to thank my Additional Mathematics teachers, Puan
Wazeena and Puan Noraishah for guiding me and my friends throughout this project.
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We had some difficulties while doing the task, but she taught us patiently until we
know what to do.
Last but not least, I would to say thank you and express my highest gratitude
to all those who gave me the possibility to complete this coursework. They are my
fellow helpful friends that when we combined and discussed together while sharing
our ideas, we had this task done.
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CONTENTS
NO CONTENT PAGES
1) OBJECTIVE 2
2) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 3
3) CONTENTS 4
4) INTRODUCTION 5-6
5) PART 1 7-15
6) PART 2 16
7) PART 3 17-18
8) PART 4 19-24
9) PART 5 25-29
10) REFLECTION 30
11) BIBLIOGRAPHIES AND FIN 31-32
INTRODUCTION
PART ONE
a) History of probability.
The cache language model and other statistical language models that are
used in natural language processing are also examples of applications of probability
theory.
Nearly every day you use probability to plan around the weather.
Meteorologists can't predict exactly what the weather will be, so they use tools and
instruments to determine the likelihood that it will rain, snow or hail. For example, if
there's a 60-percent chance of rain, then the weather conditions are such that 60 out
of 100 days with similar conditions, it has rained. You may decide to wear closed-toed
shoes rather than sandals or take an umbrella to work. Meteorologists also examine
historical data bases to guesstimate high and low temperatures and probable weather
patterns for that day or week.
Athletes and coaches use probability to determine the best sports strategies
for games and competitions. A baseball coach evaluates a player's batting average
when placing him in the lineup. For example, a player with a 200 batting average
means he's gotten a base hit two out of every 10 at bats. A player with a 400 batting
average is even more likely to get a hit -- four base hits out of every 10 at bats. Or, if
a high-school football kicker makes nine out of 15 field goal attempts from over 40
yards during the season, he has a 60 percent chance of scoring on his next field goal
attempt from that distance.
You use probability when you play board, card or video games that involve luck
or chance. You must weigh the odds of getting the cards you need in poker or the
secret weapons you need in a video game. The likelihood of getting those cards or
tokens will determine how much risk you're willing to take. For example, the odds are
46.3-to-1 that you'll get three of a kind in your poker hand -- approximately a 2-
percent chance -- according to Wolfram Math World. But, the odds are approximately
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1.4-to-1 or about 42 percent that you'll get one pair. Probability helps you assess
what's at stake and determine how you want to play the game.
Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based
on how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a
large number of trials). It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.
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PART TWO
Dice 1&2 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (4,5) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
n(s)= {(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5)
(2,6) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5)
PART THREE
2 (1,1) 1
36
3 (2,1) (1,2) 2
36
4 (1,3) (3,1) (2,2) 3
36
5 (1,4) (4,1) (3,2) (2,3) 4
36
6 (1,5) (5,1) (4,2) (2,4) (3,3) 5
36
7 (1,6) (6,1) (4,3) (3,4) (2,5) 6
36
(5,2)
8 (2,6) (6,2) (3,5) (5,3) (4,4) 5
36
9 (5,4) (4,5) (3,6) (6,3) 4
36
10 (6,4) (5,5) (4,6) 3
36
11 (6,5) (5,6) 2
36
12 (6,6) 1
36
(x): 77 : 36 P(x): 1
Table 1
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b) Based on Table 1, the possible outcomes and their corresponding probability of
the following events are:
Event 1
A= {The two numbers are the same}
A= {(1,1) (2,2) (3,3) (4,4) (5,5) (6,6)}
6 1
P(A)= 36 = 6
Event 2
B= {The product of the two numbers is greater than 25}
B= {(6,5) (5,6) (6,6)}
3 1
P(A)= 36 = 12
Event 3
C= {Both are prime numbers or the difference between two numbers is even}
C= {(1,1) (2,2) (2,3) (3,2) (2,5) (5,2) (3,5) (5,3) (6,4) (5,5) (4,6) (2,6) (6,2) (1,5)
(5,1) (4,2) (2,4) (3,3) (1,3) (3,1)}
22 11
P(A)= 36 = 18
Event 4
D= {The sum of two numbers are odd and both numbers are perfect squares}
D= {(1,4) (4,1)}
2 1
P(A)= 36 = 18
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PART FOUR
a) Conduct an activity:
Our group consist of five students in a group. We need to toss 50 times of two
dices. Each of us decided to make a toss of two dices (ten times per person). The
result from the activity is recorded on the table below.
Students/ S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
Times
1 5,1 3,4 6,6 2,6 1,5
2 6,4 6,5 1,1 3,1 1,6
3 2,5 4,2 2,6 1,4 3,5
4 2,2 1,3 2,4 1,1 2,3
5 6,6 3,2 4,3 6,1 5,6
6 1,1 6,6 4,6 6,4 1,2
7 1,4 5,3 4,1 3,3 4,5
8 6,5 1,2 4,4 6,5 2,2
9 2,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 1,1
10 12 3,6 2,1 1,2 6,6
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The outcomes (data for 50 times of dices were thrown):
x2 2
Sum of the Frequency f(x) f x
two numbers (f)
(x)
2 4 8 4 16
3 5 15 9 45
4 4 16 16 64
5 5 25 25 125
6 5 30 36 180
7 5 35 49 245
8 6 48 64 384
9 2 18 81 162
10 4 40 100 400
11 5 55 121 605
12 5 60 144 720
: 50 :350 :649 :2946
Table 2
fx
I. Mean; f
350
x =
50
x =7
2
f x ( )2
II. Variance; x
f
2946
( 7 ) 2
50
= 9.92
III. Standard deviation; = var
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= 9.9 2
=3.149
b) Predict the value of the mean if the number of tosses is increased to 100
times:
x =7 .5
c) Test for the prediction in b) for the number of toss until 100 times by
continuing activity in a). The result from the activity is recorded in the table
below.
Students/ S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
Times
1 5,1 3,4 6,6 2,6 1,5
2 6,4 6,5 1,1 3,1 1,6
3 2,5 4,2 2,6 1,4 3,5
4 2,2 1,3 2,4 1,1 2,3
5 6,6 3,2 4,3 6,1 5,6
6 1,1 6,6 4,6 6,4 1,2
7 1,4 5,3 4,1 3,3 4,5
8 6,5 1,2 4,4 6,5 2,2
9 2,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 1,1
10 1,2 3,6 2,1 1,2 6,6
11 2,6 5,1 3,5 4,2 2,4
12 3,1 6,4 2,3 5,6 2,6
13 1,4 1,1 5,6 3,4 1,1
14 1,1 2,2 1,2 1,3 6,6
15 6,1 6,6 1,5 3,2 4,3
16 6,4 2,5 6,1 2,4 4,6
17 3,3 1,4 4,5 5,3 4,1
18 6,5 2,6 2,2 4,6 5,6
19 6,6 6,5 6,6 3,6 4,4
20 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,2 2,1
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The outcomes (new data for 100 times of dices were thrown):
x2 2
Sum of the Frequency f(x) f x
two numbers (f)
(x)
2 8 16 4 32
3 10 30 9 90
4 8 32 16 128
5 10 50 25 250
6 11 66 36 396
7 10 70 49 490
8 12 96 64 768
9 4 36 81 324
10 8 80 100 800
11 10 110 121 1210
12 9 108 144 1296
: 100 :694 :649 :5784
Table 3
fx
i. Mean; f
694
x =
100
x =6.94
2
f x ( )2 5784 ( 2
ii. Variance; x = 6.94 ) =9.6764
f 100
9 6764
= 3.1107
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Thus, from the activity above, my prediction is wrong and not proven because the
mean for 50 times of dices tossed is 7 while the mean for 100 times is 6.94 but I
predicted 7.5 in b).
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PART FIVE
This part of question relates with Part Three, question in a). The questions for Part
Five is based on Table 1 (page 17).
Mean; xP ( x )
(2 361 )+(3 362 )+( 4 363 )+(5 164 )+(6 365 )+(7 366 )+( 8 365 )+( 9 364 )+(10 363 )+(11 362
=7
Variance; x 2 P ( x ) ( man )2
(4 361 )+(9 362 )+(16 363 )+(25 164 )+(36 365 )+(49 366 )+(64 365 )+( 81 364 )+(100 363 )+
2
= ( 63.24 ) ( 7 )
= 14.24
= 14.2 4
=3.7736
b) The mean in Part 4 and 5 is almost the same. Even though the formula used to
find both means is different but the answers are almost the same. To find the
fx
mean in Part 4, I need to use Additional Mathematics formula, f and the
mean is 7.
In the meantime, to find the mean in Part 5, I need to use the formula given,
xP ( x ) and yet the answer is same in Part 4, 7. In Part 5, in order to find
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the mean, firstly I need to find the probability of outcomes (refers Table 1, page
17 and 25). Then, I can calculate for the answer by using the formula given.
In a nutshell, from what I can conclude and relate with Empirical Probability is I
can estimate the event will happen based on how often the event occurs after
collecting data or running an experiment (in a large number of trials). This can
be proven when I am conducting the activity in Part 3 and Part 4.
For Theoretical Probability, is about finding the probability of events that come
from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes. This can be proven
when I am calculating the probability after conducting the activity in Part 3 and
Part 4.
c)
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FURTHER EXPLORATION
The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the
averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a
single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable
percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will
eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember
that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of
observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of
observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will
immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).
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An illustration of the law of large numbers using a particular run of rolls of a
single die. As the number of rolls in this run increases, the average of the values of all
the results approaches 3.5. While different runs would show a different shape over a
small number of throws (at the left), over a large number of rolls (to the right) they
would be extremely similar.
For example, a single roll of a fair, six-sided die produces one of the numbers 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, or 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of a single die
roll is
According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of six-sided dice are
rolled, the average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to be
close to 3.5, with the precision increasing as more dice are rolled.
It follows from the law of large numbers that the empirical probability of
success in a series of Bernoulli trials will converge to the theoretical probability. For a
Bernoulli random variable, the expected value is the theoretical probability of
success, and the average of n such variables (assuming they are independent and
identically distributed) is precisely the relative frequency.
For example, a fair coin toss is a Bernoulli trial. When a fair coin is flipped
once, the theoretical probability that the outcome will be heads is equal to 1/2.
Therefore, according to the law of large numbers, the proportion of heads in a "large"
number of coin flips "should be" roughly 1/2. In particular, the proportion of heads
after n flips will almost surely converge to 1/2 as n approaches infinity.
Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches 1/2, almost surely the
absolute difference in the number of heads and tails will become large as the number
of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute difference is a small
number, approaches zero as the number of flips becomes large. Also, almost surely
the ratio of the absolute difference to the number of flips will approach zero.
Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower rate than the number
of flips, as the number of flips grows.
REFLECTION
While I conducting this project, a lot of information that I found. I have learnt
how probability appear in our daily life. Apart from that, this project encourages the
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student to work together and share their knowledges. It encourages students to
gather information from the internet, improve thinking skills and promote effective
mathematical communication. Not only that, I had learned some moral values that I
practice.
This project had taught me to be responsible on the works that are given to
me to be completed. This project also had made me feel more confidence to do works
and not to give easily when we could not find the solution for the question. I also
learned to be more discipline on time, which I was given about a month to complete
this project and pass up to my teacher just in time.
I also enjoy doing this project when I spend my time with friends to complete
this project and it had tightened our friendship. Last but not least, I proposed this
project should be continued because it brings a lot of moral value to the student and
also test the students understanding in Additional Mathematics.
In conclusion, probability is also a daily life necessity. Without it, mans
creativity will be limited. Therefore, we should be thankful of the people who
contribute in the idea of probability.
BIBLIOGRAPHIES
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory
http://global.britannica.com/topic/probability-theory
http://www.math.uiuc.edu/~r-ash/BPT.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
http://homepages.wmich.edu/~mackey/Teaching/145/probHist.html
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http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.prob.world.html
https://www.google.com.my/search?
hl=en&biw=1366&bih=651&site=webhp&q=importance+of+probability+in+daily+life&s
a=X&ved=0ahUKEwjhlZ3t3ZzNAhWmJqYKHTx3CeUQ1QIIbCgB
http://world.mathigon.org/Probability
http://www.malaysia-students.com/2012/05/additional-mathematics-add-math-
project.html
https://www.google.com.my/search?
q=importance+of+probability+in+daily+life&safe=active&hl=en&biw=1366&bih=651&si
te=webhp&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjdm_70sLDNAhWDp5QKH
RPQAuw4ChD8BQgIKAE&safe=active
http://www.ehow.com/list_7719506_real-life-probability-examples.html
http://www.google.com.my/url?
sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwihvoHu
uLDNAhULmpQKHWO4BnMQjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slideshare.net
%2Fimmanuel66%2Fimmanuel&psig=AFQjCNHOGwMTrM6tR8YYv0i0jbY40TuIBQ&u
st=1466300206717262
http://www.mathworksheetscenter.com/mathtips/calculatingprobability.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGXdd7Htf2Q
https://www.coursera.org/learn/principles-of-computing-1/lecture/rNtn2/the-
importance-of-probability
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
http://www.corestandards.org/Math/Content/HSS/introduction/
http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/math/algebra/apr5/theoprop.htm
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FIN